I thought the Peter Hitchens article was thought-provoking rather than stupid.
It’s much easier to stir up fear by exaggerating, then dwelling on, the worst case scenario than to risk accusations of encouraging death by questioning if it is as bad as it seems.
What are the responses of the people criticising PH to the lack of deaths in the other pandemics, compared to the contemporary predictions? Why have cases of influenza plummeted in Europe in the last month?
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
No, it's fucking stupid. Five minutes with a calculator shows that the approach would render the NHS totally non functional under the weight of cases.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
It is not utilitarian, it's the idea of a self confident moron with private medical cover.
Not so much corrected as enhanced for you.
Then he's even more of an idiot than I thought.
Private sector is good for elective and chronic conditions - more capacity (hence less queuing) and they make you feel good. For acute situations always go with the NHS.
You're right of course.
You can buy a test privately though which may be an advantage.
Would anyone like to guess how many through roads pass over or under the M25?
I thought it would be a useful thing to know in the event of needing stop Londoners escaping.
A huge number. Hundreds probably.
There was No 10 statement that London would "never" be locked down so that one couldn't get in or out.
Given the rate at which they are abandoning previous positions, it's hard to see that lasting. But can it be sealed off?
Only French style, by banning car driving (without proof of need) altogether, and then policing via CCTV and NNPR. A cordon would be impractical given the size and number of crossing points, and the volume of essential traffic, especially lorries.
Would anyone like to guess how many through roads pass over or under the M25?
I thought it would be a useful thing to know in the event of needing stop Londoners escaping.
A huge number. Hundreds probably.
There was No 10 statement that London would "never" be locked down so that one couldn't get in or out.
Given the rate at which they are abandoning previous positions, it's hard to see that lasting. But can it be sealed off?
I think it’s something like 160 including all the junctions. I don’t think it’s completely out of the question that they’d keep Londoners where they are if they think drastic action is needed.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Bought a cheap one on Amazon - seems to work fine - Foxy said they were all much of a muchness. The other things he recommended were a peak flow meter (for lung capacity- take a baseline when you're well) - again, bought a cheap one and thermometer.
Same here. Not used the spo2 gadget; temperature normal; peak flow 300 for the last week or two but this morning up to nearly 400 so there is an outside chance I've been ill the past few days without noticing.
what is a decent peak flow , mine was 550 - 600
We'll all be different - the issue is if YOURS drops a lot. There is also variation throughout the day.
A drop of around 20 percent from the normal would be cause for concern, but a drop of 50 percent would be alarming and would require immediate medical attention.
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
How about the Government abandon its childish and silly ban on appearing on certain programmes?
I have seen lots of ministers on BBC and Sky
Not on the boycotted programmes
To be honest I long since stopped watching Newsnight and Question Time
And Today and PM. That doesn't make it OK. Not at all.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
How about the Government abandon its childish and silly ban on appearing on certain programmes?
I have seen lots of ministers on BBC and Sky
Not on the boycotted programmes
To be honest I long since stopped watching Newsnight and Question Time
Others still do watch them though Big_G. HMG needs to drop this petty feud.
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
But it is vitally important to ask if their kids can have a play dates if they aren't at school....no you massive tw@t, they can't....but what if it is just a small group...NO.
Finished Lancaster and York, by Alison Weir, yesterday. Good book for anyone wanting a single volume to cover the Wars of the Roses.
With the very important caveat that it finishes in 1471. Arguably that was the moment when the dynastic struggle ended, but the instability it had caused lasted well into the 1490s and as late as 1541 Henry VIII feared there was a Yorkist attempt to supplant him.
I've always seen the War of the Roses as a family squabble that got out of hand
Well, I suppose that's one way of looking at the Battle of Towton...
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
Marr just asked the “how long will this go on for” question. Muppet.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
This is good - but they need to go well beyond Twitter. They need to be advertising this until people are sick to the back teeth of it - then they'll have done their job.
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
Marr just asked the “how long will this go on for” question. Muppet.
This really shows just how ill-disciplined the west is. From young to old, there are far too many people who just won't follow basic instructions.
People are used to thinking everyone should be free to move everywhere they want, whenever they want, to the point where they think it’s almost the reason for living. Self restraint and social conservatism have become particularly unfashionable.
When this dies down I’d say it’s be a good idea for people to engage in social distancing, the shops to close etc maybe for one day a week. Might I suggest Sunday?
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
How about the Government abandon its childish and silly ban on appearing on certain programmes?
I have seen lots of ministers on BBC and Sky
Not on the boycotted programmes
To be honest I long since stopped watching Newsnight and Question Time
Others still do watch them though Big_G. HMG needs to drop this petty feud.
Maybe but in the scheme of things these programmes only attract the politically engaged
The wider public that need to be reached are watching Netflix or other streaming services
This really shows just how ill-disciplined the west is. From young to old, there are far too many people who just won't follow basic instructions.
People are used to thinking everyone should be free to move everywhere they want, whenever they want, to the point where they think it’s almost the reason for living. Self restraint and social conservatism have become particularly unfashionable.
And it isn't just the youngsters. We have knob-heads like Jezza, Stanley, Hitchens, etc all unwilling to follow the advice and the likes of Blunkett claiming this is just ageism.
Coronavirus is well ageist, we need special laws to ban it in this country, due to its clearly displayed ageist policy.
The problem we have in all countries is that there are many people who just do not watch or read the news. If your source of entertainment is Netflix etc then your exposure to messages promoting sensible precautions will be nil. Maybe you need to do what was done in Spain on the early days of the lockdown which was to tour the streets blasting a simple multi lingual message out. It also brings home the seriousness of the situation.
They need to talk to Google / YouTube about running the public service announcements where ads go...and loads of channels aren't monetised so don't have ads, stick the government PSA before everyone of those.
This needs to be constant bombardment.
To be fair my Facebook is littered with messages form both the UK and here in Spain. For the latter the TV is way better than the UK in terms of both news and messaging. Living abroad shows that in many respects the great UK institutions which are nowadays effectively deified and above any criticism - are actually not that special.
Finished Lancaster and York, by Alison Weir, yesterday. Good book for anyone wanting a single volume to cover the Wars of the Roses.
With the very important caveat that it finishes in 1471. Arguably that was the moment when the dynastic struggle ended, but the instability it had caused lasted well into the 1490s and as late as 1541 Henry VIII feared there was a Yorkist attempt to supplant him.
I've always seen the War of the Roses as a family squabble that got out of hand
Well, I suppose that's one way of looking at the Battle of Towton...
Yes, that was a bit nasty
Be fair, Ydoethur. To Charles it probably WAS a family squabble.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
How about the Government abandon its childish and silly ban on appearing on certain programmes?
I have seen lots of ministers on BBC and Sky
Not on the boycotted programmes
You need to let it go - they are there when and where it matters.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
How about the Government abandon its childish and silly ban on appearing on certain programmes?
I have seen lots of ministers on BBC and Sky
Not on the boycotted programmes
You need to let it go - they are there when and where it matters.
No - they need to let it go. Can you imagine Churchill refusing to appear on the Home Service because of some petty pre-war political spat.
The problem we have in all countries is that there are many people who just do not watch or read the news. If your source of entertainment is Netflix etc then your exposure to messages promoting sensible precautions will be nil. Maybe you need to do what was done in Spain on the early days of the lockdown which was to tour the streets blasting a simple multi lingual message out. It also brings home the seriousness of the situation.
They need to talk to Google / YouTube about running the public service announcements where ads go...and loads of channels aren't monetised so don't have ads, stick the government PSA before everyone of those.
This needs to be constant bombardment.
To be fair my Facebook is littered with messages form both the UK and here in Spain. For the latter the TV is way better than the UK in terms of both news and messaging. Living abroad shows that in many respects the great UK institutions which are nowadays effectively deified and above any criticism - are actually not that special.
The government comms hasn't always been good, Boris does waffle, but CMO/CSO have and the broadcasters here have been oscillating between useless and disgraceful. Rather than using the platform to constantly reinforce the central messages, we get days of talking heads arguing over the fairness of cancelling exams and constant finding of edge cases to any announcement, but of course then encourages the public to think well I'm an exception too.
How do the supermarkets square these dedicated opening time slots for the elderly with official policy that such people shouldn't be going shopping at all?
Can't answer that one Ian but on a different topic: what's your lastest thinking on how low the DJ index will go, and how long it will take to bottom out?
Toward the middle of last week, I sensed a whiff of recovery, as I said here on Thursday I think. Not so much that there is good news on the horizon as that markets have now normalised the bad news we already know. And the 5000/20000 levels had been doing a good job of providing some resistance. So I expected markets to recover a little in the short term, pending seriously bad medical news from the US.
So it proved, up until after close Friday, when something (not sure what - the latest US virus stats?) saw the markets turn sharply down again. I had a couple of buy positions that looked promising but which are now underwater.
This is interesting - although it's possible it is a morale piece rather than honest financial analysis:
Right now, the rapid spread in the US and the scale of the economic assistance being demanded, makes me feel a further drop on Monday may be on the cards. If it looks that way when futures trading opens tonight, I may dump my positions and cut their losses. If the market perks back up, I may hold them to Monday.
Medium term I think a further fall is likely when the true scale of the economic damage becomes apparent and the news is full of bankruptcy stories and unemployment. And NYC right outside the doors of Wall Street looks like being the worst spot in the US.
I genuinely don't yet have a feel as to whether this is next week or next month.
Thanks. I know the cause and general environment are totally different to the 1929 crash but it's worth remembering that the US stock market continued to fall for nearly 3 years after the initial crash.
A big difference now is what Odey identifies - a lot of trading is automated, and some that isn't works off trends and chart points. So you'd expect the market to become oversold at some point, however bad the economic damage. He's being bold in calling it so early, though, I agree. And clearly he can afford to be wrong.
And clearly he had spent February being wrong to the tune of -12%.
Why would he talk to the DM about his views though?
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Bought a cheap one on Amazon - seems to work fine - Foxy said they were all much of a muchness. The other things he recommended were a peak flow meter (for lung capacity- take a baseline when you're well) - again, bought a cheap one and thermometer.
Same here. Not used the spo2 gadget; temperature normal; peak flow 300 for the last week or two but this morning up to nearly 400 so there is an outside chance I've been ill the past few days without noticing.
what is a decent peak flow , mine was 550 - 600
Highly Dependent on height and age but that sounds pretty decent.
That sort of level is very good, Malc. I'm mildly asthmatic, go to the gym (well when I could) about struggle to get much above 350. Weh younger I could walk for miles, but running was a problem.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
This is good - but they need to go well beyond Twitter. They need to be advertising this until people are sick to the back teeth of it - then they'll have done their job.
Advertising and asking people nicely is not going to work as we've seen in Italy. There needs to be a forced lockdown. Wtf are they playing at? They seem to care more about the economy then peoples lives.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
after the first week since this measure was decreed, with more than 25,400 active cases, and 1,385 deaths with coronavirus. 10:59 The Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has communicated to the presidents of the autonomous communities the extension of the alert status for 15 more days, according to what TVE has learned. Unconfirmed but probably true
Spain extends the lockdown for 2 weeks more - Sanchez. Going to get much worse before it gets any better. The complacency on here about the UK is, I think misplaced sadly.
After the invasion of the Highlands, Snowdonia, the lake district, beaches and beauty spots by numerous selfish morons I believe HMG has to mandate staying at home and also immediate loss of licence of any pub or restaurant that remains open
I also want to see mandatory rationing of essential food and also home deliveries to those isolated from everyone, including family, receiving the basics of milk, bread, fruit and disinfectants
And on the economy I want to see help for the self employed which I understand is on the way
I want to see these too, but most of all, I want to see clear communications. As others have suggested, the BBC needs to be used to advertise simple messaging:
Wash your hands Stay at home Save the NHS Protect the country.
I would agree.
The BBC now need to be on a wartime footing with 24/7 public broadcasting
This is good - but they need to go well beyond Twitter. They need to be advertising this until people are sick to the back teeth of it - then they'll have done their job.
Advertising and asking people nicely is not going to work as we've seen in Italy. There needs to be a forced lockdown. Wtf are they playing at? They seem to care more about the economy then peoples lives.
I know the egg-head advice was they didn't think their would be rioting etc, but I think given how quickly thinks flared up in London a few years ago, I think the government have been concerned about it.
We are seeing how people are acting in regards to just the supermarket, let alone a total and utter lockdown of the place with nobody let in or out. Also, I don't know the %, but I would imagine the % of key workers who would still need to travel in and out of the capital is very large, so you also need to police that movement.
In China, for instance all the healthcare workers lived at the hospitals. Again, people won't accept doing that here, unable to see their families for weeks on end.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re fine. Just be sensible when outside. I feel sorry for those living in big cities, but that’s life I’m afraid.
Spain extends the lockdown for 2 weeks more - Sanchez. Going to get much worse before it gets any better. The complacency on here about the UK is, I think misplaced sadly.
On the other hand also shows why total lockdown is possibly a mistake. How do you end it?
Spain extends the lockdown for 2 weeks more - Sanchez. Going to get much worse before it gets any better. The complacency on here about the UK is, I think misplaced sadly.
Even if our lockdown worked we have 2 weeks of serious deterioration built in, almost certainly enough to get our daily toll into the low hundreds. Where we go from there is still up for grabs.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re fine. Just be sensible when outside. I feel sorry for those living in big cities, but that’s life I’m afraid.
How do the supermarkets square these dedicated opening time slots for the elderly with official policy that such people shouldn't be going shopping at all?
Can't answer that one Ian but on a different topic: what's your lastest thinking on how low the DJ index will go, and how long it will take to bottom out?
Toward the middle of last week, I sensed a whiff of recovery, as I said here on Thursday I think. Not so much that there is good news on the horizon as that markets have now normalised the bad news we already know. And the 5000/20000 levels had been doing a good job of providing some resistance. So I expected markets to recover a little in the short term, pending seriously bad medical news from the US.
So it proved, up until after close Friday, when something (not sure what - the latest US virus stats?) saw the markets turn sharply down again. I had a couple of buy positions that looked promising but which are now underwater.
This is interesting - although it's possible it is a morale piece rather than honest financial analysis:
Right now, the rapid spread in the US and the scale of the economic assistance being demanded, makes me feel a further drop on Monday may be on the cards. If it looks that way when futures trading opens tonight, I may dump my positions and cut their losses. If the market perks back up, I may hold them to Monday.
Medium term I think a further fall is likely when the true scale of the economic damage becomes apparent and the news is full of bankruptcy stories and unemployment. And NYC right outside the doors of Wall Street looks like being the worst spot in the US.
I genuinely don't yet have a feel as to whether this is next week or next month.
Thanks. I know the cause and general environment are totally different to the 1929 crash but it's worth remembering that the US stock market continued to fall for nearly 3 years after the initial crash.
A big difference now is what Odey identifies - a lot of trading is automated, and some that isn't works off trends and chart points. So you'd expect the market to become oversold at some point, however bad the economic damage. He's being bold in calling it so early, though, I agree. And clearly he can afford to be wrong.
And clearly he had spent February being wrong to the tune of -12%.
Why would he talk to the DM about his views though?
That's why I wondered whether it was the DM trying to create a sense of market optimism.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re missing the fact that some people will see what they think is a loophole and take advantage of it, witness the behavior yesterday. You unfortunately can’t legislate on the assumption that everyone will behave sensibly therefore don’t go out has to mean don’t go out.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re fine. Just be sensible when outside. I feel sorry for those living in big cities, but that’s life I’m afraid.
There are lots of big parks in London
If they’re being used for exercise the. That’s fine, but if they are being used for socialising, then that’s not so good.
From the Veneto, a couple of pieces of slightly better news - slightly fewer new cases today (505 vs 586 and 547 the last two days) and also two fewer people, overall, in the ICUs across the region.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re fine. Just be sensible when outside. I feel sorry for those living in big cities, but that’s life I’m afraid.
That was my provisional conclusion. If going out is inevitably going to bring you into close proximity with people or even things people have touched or involves you touching things others will subsequently touch don’t do it. If it’s not I am struggling to see the harm.
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
Marr just asked the “how long will this go on for” question. Muppet.
In general there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. Who is being interviewed?
This question is the one everyone wants to know the answer to, and is therefore a good one for journalists to ask. The answer they should give IMO: "It will over quicker with fewer deaths if people stay at home and keep washing their hands"
Spain extends the lockdown for 2 weeks more - Sanchez. Going to get much worse before it gets any better. The complacency on here about the UK is, I think misplaced sadly.
This is where I think the UK government are right in being honest and saying this is 12 weeks minimum and that people can't do total lockdowns for many many months.
I am not sure how people in places like France are going to react to constantly saying, just 2 more weeks, just 2 more weeks.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re fine. Just be sensible when outside. I feel sorry for those living in big cities, but that’s life I’m afraid.
That was my provisional conclusion. If going out is inevitably going to bring you into close proximity with people or even things people have touched or involves you touching things others will subsequently touch don’t do it. If it’s not I am struggling to see the harm.
We went out for a long walk in the country park yesterday. Nodded at people we passed, but kept our distance. I’ve been going out running on my own, can’t see there’s much harm in that.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re missing the fact that some people will see what they think is a loophole and take advantage of it, witness the behavior yesterday. You unfortunately can’t legislate on the assumption that everyone will behave sensibly therefore don’t go out has to mean don’t go out.
I can see that. OTOH walking is very much part of our fitness regime so we are ready for this.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
You won't but how do you provide general guidance to people and say it is fine to go for walks in parks without those parks becoming immediately dangerous as everyone does it?
We live in a densely populated country with relatively low levels of green public space. It won't work so the blunt recommendation will probably come.
Part of Boris' problem is he loves to waffle and the press keep asking the most stupid questions to which he engages for far too long.
He should take a leaf out of the New Labour playbook (and the Tory GE strategy), and Witty has started doing this, if it is total dickhead question asking what about if I have one of my friends round, I have a kitchen dinner, can they sit at the dining table, while I stay at the kitchen bar area.
Just ignore it to repeat your 4-5 key points. Wash Your Hands, Social Distancing, No Socializing, Oldies stay in the bloody house.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
I think you’re missing the fact that some people will see what they think is a loophole and take advantage of it, witness the behavior yesterday. You unfortunately can’t legislate on the assumption that everyone will behave sensibly therefore don’t go out has to mean don’t go out.
I normally take my dog out for a decent walk in the Chilterns at the weekend. Yesterday morning I parked in a deserted nature reserve car park, which when I returned a couple of hours later was completely full. There were also a lot more people biking the trails - reacting to the gyms closing, I suppose.
In terms of outdoor activities it's probably the safest thing you can do, but I'm going to have to stay away from the more popular/pretty areas. Luckily I have access to fields which are not public access, so I might be sticking to those for the next few weeks.
Spain extends the lockdown for 2 weeks more - Sanchez. Going to get much worse before it gets any better. The complacency on here about the UK is, I think misplaced sadly.
On the other hand also shows why total lockdown is possibly a mistake. How do you end it?
Lockdown needs to be done for at least a couple months once the cases have already started exploding. Not just to stop the spread but also to allow the backlog in the hospitals to be dealt with. The earlier countries had locked down the quicker they could slowly start reopening again. Ending the lockdown will need to come in small stages. Maybe even doing it region by region as a sort of trial. Slowly open up local businesses but don't let people travel freely around the country or abroad. Cases will increase for sure but the point is that you are then better prepared to isolate infected cases, roll out mass testing, and with social distancing measures in place the spread should be lower and better managed.
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
Marr just asked the “how long will this go on for” question. Muppet.
In general there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. Who is being interviewed?
This question is the one everyone wants to know the answer to, and is therefore a good one for journalists to ask. The answer they should give IMO: "It will over quicker with fewer deaths if people stay at home and keep washing their hands"
Although that might not actually be an accurate answer.
To be honest looking at the stats I'm not sure the UK is in a good place witout further and rapid considerable tightening. Hope I'm wrong but..
No. I don't like to post deep pessimism as a general rule but my expectation is that we will have a health disaster at least as bad as Italy's. I just cannot see any reason why we won't.
This bloke reckons there’s a link between Chinese immigrants in Prato and the spread of it... but that’s not even in Lombardy
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
So if it works the National Trust can reopen its fields and gardens, just keep the cafes closed. But stay away from hospitals, doctors' surgeries and pharmacies which seem the most dangerous places in the country.
Calling all PB medics. - is this significant for dealing with the UK outbreak?
What I don't understand is why azithromycin (an antibacterial - Zithromax) would have an impact on a virus. My assumption would be that it is helping with secondary infections rather than the underlying cause? Similarly HCQ impacts on some of the odd stuff going on in the blood (rapid formation and breakdown of clots) - this is similar to what is observed in malaria hence the use of HCQ.
Our consultant noted that a lot of these studies have been in vitro rather than in vivo, so need to be treated with caution.
Our local hospital is running on HCQ+Kaletra plus looking at an RCT with HCQ+nebulised interferon
Did you see the recent medical paper as result of a small trial that said Kaletra had no effect?
The headlines, yes. But I'm not a scientist and the consultant said that their microbiology department is watching all papers.
By the way, below is the key point. Headline was no statistically significant benefit. But that was in an patient population that had been showing symptoms for 2+ weeks. With viruses the key thing is to stop the viral load getting too high and overcoming the body's defences. So early treatment is critical
According to the study, the death rate in Kaletra patients was 15.0% at day 28, versus 27.1% among placebo patients, provided therapy started within 12 days of symptoms starting, Raffat noted. When all modified intention-to-treat patients are analyzed, the difference narrowed to 16.7% versus 25.0%.
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
It's not about you. It's about a consistent message to everyone. It is all the exceptions which kill that.
More than ever the BBC also needs to keep an eye on this government, ask the difficult questions, and help hold it to account. We get better decisions that way.
In the past I'd have agreed with that but listening to some of the inane questions at the PCs makes me wonder whether they grasp the gravity of the situation. Too many of the journos are focussed too much on their egos and soundbites.
Marr just asked the “how long will this go on for” question. Muppet.
In general there are no stupid questions, only stupid answers. Who is being interviewed?
This question is the one everyone wants to know the answer to, and is therefore a good one for journalists to ask. The answer they should give IMO: "It will over quicker with fewer deaths if people stay at home and keep washing their hands"
And that is exactly what Boris has been repeating ad infinitum
If Boris wants to reach people, perhaps he might like to do a prime time interview with Andrew Neil.
Again only for the politically engaged
You do know he is doing daily live news conference broadcast which are reported across the media rather than niche political programmes
Absolutely not the case. Blair and Thatcher would have done it. Boris could too.
I do not understand that comment. Are you saying Boris is not holding daily news conferences
Boris should use every channel available to get the message across. Not necessarily just the easy ones. I am sure you agree.
Are you giving him time to do anything else? What is the point of doing an Andrew Neil style interview. How does it do any good to have PM caught out on issues he doesn’t fully understand all the nuances of? That is why he is doing the PCs with the experts. So he can defer to them in necessary.
Sadiq Kahn doing more in 10 minutes with Marr than the government has done in the past 6 week.
Clear message: Stay at home or people will die.
Repeat repeat repeat. Repeat repeat repeat.
Really. And how many watch Marr
He said nothing more than Boris and others have been saying on mainstream news programmes
No one. That's the problem. I'm a Conservative voter. Sadiq Kahn, Campbell, Gordon Brown, Tony Blair woild have done better.
The only person in the country who would have done worse is Jeremy Corbyn.
That is not the view in the country.
Not only polls showing Boris's popularity but more and more people are coming in behind him and also the chancellor, who is playing a key role
So many of Boris's critics would attack him no matter what he did
My God. Who cares what polls say. Polls revealed three weeks ago that the British public were least concerned about this virus. The public are IGNORANT. That's the problem. That's what is being discussed. They need to be TOLD what to do clearly. This is science and public health, not politics.
The polls will turn when reality sets in. If you care about such trivialities.
Another thing I would do re comms if I was the government, ask a load of the popular social media influencer types to repeat the key messages and make it clear how it can be serious even for young people. They don't need to lose their cred by "working for the Tories", they can easily do it in a non-partisan way.
Spain extends the lockdown for 2 weeks more - Sanchez. Going to get much worse before it gets any better. The complacency on here about the UK is, I think misplaced sadly.
This is where I think the UK government are right in being honest and saying this is 12 weeks minimum and that people can't do total lockdowns for many many months.
I am not sure how people in places like France are going to react to constantly saying, just 2 more weeks, just 2 more weeks.
So far people here are broadly being sensible. Viewed from afar many on here just come across as selfish and complacent halfwits. Even then I still hope it works out for the best but I can only speak my truth as I see it.
If Boris wants to reach people, perhaps he might like to do a prime time interview with Andrew Neil.
For what purpose so that those with agendas like you can orgasm? Grow up ffs.
Why do people need to protect the mother hen Boris as if he is some kind of weakling rather than the government’s best communicator. Right now the governments first, second and third priority is to change behaviours. Boris should be out there making the case.
As a fifty year old...I firmly sided with young people on the Remain debate but now on Covid 19 I am a fully signed up Oldie....
Why are so many of our country, particularly the young, behaving so irresponsibly? It is insufficient to simply dismiss them as morons or idiots.
I predict a major jump in UK deaths today-a tanking on the markets tomorrow and a national lock down announced tomorrow...these are not predictions actually, they are just givens knowing now this virus works and how human's behave....
I believe the national lock down will be loosely enforced outside London- but in London after tomorrow we will something like a full blown police state begin to emerge
I decided in the end to chance Sainsbury's after work last night. So, it's just after 7pm, shop is calm, pretty empty, staff look frazzled and are dragging pallets around. My priority was a bottle of wine for the Mrs, maybe some chocolate, and any sort of washing machine powder or liquid. Couldn't find any of that, but I did see a lad dragging the biggest pallet of Corona beer down the empty booze aisle, I took a picture and shared it on my family and works whatsapp, but no one believed it was real!
So, we live on the edge of the country with lots of delightful walks in woods and on farm roads near our house. We say “hullo” to people on these walks but there is no close proximity with anyone. Should we be “staying at home” or is it ok to enjoy the sunshine? I am a bit confused and I have been following this a lot more closely than most.
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
It's not about you. It's about a consistent message to everyone. It is all the exceptions which kill that.
I think the problem is convergence on honeypots, and consequent crowding of paths and carparks. You can walk but your walk starts from your house is the only possible rule.
BT's boss has had the virus and will be back in work next week. The company is in discussion with No. 10 on use of mobile date and messaging to help manange the crisis
Sadiq Kahn doing more in 10 minutes with Marr than the government has done in the past 6 week.
Clear message: Stay at home or people will die.
Repeat repeat repeat. Repeat repeat repeat.
Really. And how many watch Marr
He said nothing more than Boris and others have been saying on mainstream news programmes
No one. That's the problem. I'm a Conservative voter. Sadiq Kahn, Campbell, Gordon Brown, Tony Blair woild have done better.
The only person in the country who would have done worse is Jeremy Corbyn.
That is not the view in the country.
Not only polls showing Boris's popularity but more and more people are coming in behind him and also the chancellor, who is playing a key role
So many of Boris's critics would attack him no matter what he did
My God. Who cares what polls say. Polls revealed three weeks ago that the British public were least concerned about this virus. The public are IGNORANT. That's the problem. That's what is being discussed. They need to be TOLD what to do clearly. This is science and public health, not politics.
The polls will turn when reality sets in. If you care about such trivialities.
You do not need to shout and they are being told what to do, some are ignoring the advice
The next step that may well have to be taken is compulsion, and are you saying you are ready for a police state
I see a lot of people criticising others for being stupid and socialising/congregating/going out in what they perceive risky ways
I see a lot of the same people saying I can't see how I could catch it just going out for a walk where is the harm in that.
The thinking for both sets of actions however is the same "I can't see the harm"
Just saying
If you cannot see the difference between taking a walk whilst socially distancing or meeting up and socialising with friends....I can draw you a picture if you like..
If Boris wants to reach people, perhaps he might like to do a prime time interview with Andrew Neil.
For what purpose so that those with agendas like you can orgasm? Grow up ffs.
Why do people need to protect the mother hen Boris as if he is some kind of weakling rather than the government’s best communicator. Right now the governments first, second and third priority is to change behaviours. Boris should be out there making the case.
He is and frankly you are just a prat with an agenda. A very transparent one.
I think we have another problem in the west, we are so used to just popping down the shops for things every day. Gone are the days of the one weekly shop and the supermarkets were open quite limited hours and not on Sundays. So the only people who plan out meals and stick to that are the crazy gym freak types who want to be <10% body fat.
I haven't left my property for the past 2 weeks and am well supplied for a range of meals, but it isn't the boredom (I am doing a lot of work) that is a problem, it definitely is the oh I really fancy such and such and I don't have it. On the plus side, great for weight loss, as no drinking and no bad treats.
If Boris wants to reach people, perhaps he might like to do a prime time interview with Andrew Neil.
For what purpose so that those with agendas like you can orgasm? Grow up ffs.
Why do people need to protect the mother hen Boris as if he is some kind of weakling rather than the government’s best communicator. Right now the governments first, second and third priority is to change behaviours. Boris should be out there making the case.
He is and frankly you are just a prat with an agenda. A very transparent one.
Clearly I hit a raw nerve. My agenda is indeed transparent and simple, the government’s communication is weak and confused. Now is a critical time and they need to do much, much better. If Boris got in front of Neil he would be forced to do his homework and might get his shit together.
I see a lot of people criticising others for being stupid and socialising/congregating/going out in what they perceive risky ways
I see a lot of the same people saying I can't see how I could catch it just going out for a walk where is the harm in that.
The thinking for both sets of actions however is the same "I can't see the harm"
Just saying
Far too much is 'me me me' - the lack of concern for the common good is awful to see.
Indeed I have been self isolating for a week now as much as possible venturing out only for food every four or five days which sadly is necessary as I dont have storage for more than that and pasta and canned stuff hasnt been very available.
This is not only as an asthma sufferer therefore reasonably high risk but also because I am aware that as part of a 3 man 24 hour support team for software in a few hospitals me going down ill is not good
Comments
What are the responses of the people criticising PH to the lack of deaths in the other pandemics, compared to the contemporary predictions? Why have cases of influenza plummeted in Europe in the last month?
https://www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
You can buy a test privately though which may be an advantage.
'Stay The Fuck Home' ?
When this dies down I’d say it’s be a good idea for people to engage in social distancing, the shops to close etc maybe for one day a week. Might I suggest Sunday?
The wider public that need to be reached are watching Netflix or other streaming services
Coronavirus is well ageist, we need special laws to ban it in this country, due to its clearly displayed ageist policy.
Clear message: Stay at home or people will die.
Repeat repeat repeat. Repeat repeat repeat.
Why would he talk to the DM about his views though?
He said nothing more than Boris and others have been saying on mainstream news programmes
I really don’t see how we catch Covid 19 on such a walk. I don’t see how we infect anyone else if we had the virus asymptomatically. What am I missing?
10:59 The Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, has communicated to the presidents of the autonomous communities the extension of the alert status for 15 more days, according to what TVE has learned. Unconfirmed but probably true
Not much point saving lives from CV if you destroy the general health of the nation over the same period.
You do know he is doing daily live news conference broadcast which are reported across the media rather than niche political programmes
We are seeing how people are acting in regards to just the supermarket, let alone a total and utter lockdown of the place with nobody let in or out. Also, I don't know the %, but I would imagine the % of key workers who would still need to travel in and out of the capital is very large, so you also need to police that movement.
In China, for instance all the healthcare workers lived at the hospitals. Again, people won't accept doing that here, unable to see their families for weeks on end.
The only person in the country who would have done worse is Jeremy Corbyn.
This question is the one everyone wants to know the answer to, and is therefore a good one for journalists to ask. The answer they should give IMO: "It will over quicker with fewer deaths if people stay at home and keep washing their hands"
I am not sure how people in places like France are going to react to constantly saying, just 2 more weeks, just 2 more weeks.
We live in a densely populated country with relatively low levels of green public space. It won't work so the blunt recommendation will probably come.
He should take a leaf out of the New Labour playbook (and the Tory GE strategy), and Witty has started doing this, if it is total dickhead question asking what about if I have one of my friends round, I have a kitchen dinner, can they sit at the dining table, while I stay at the kitchen bar area.
Just ignore it to repeat your 4-5 key points. Wash Your Hands, Social Distancing, No Socializing, Oldies stay in the bloody house.
In terms of outdoor activities it's probably the safest thing you can do, but I'm going to have to stay away from the more popular/pretty areas. Luckily I have access to fields which are not public access, so I might be sticking to those for the next few weeks.
Not only polls showing Boris's popularity but more and more people are coming in behind him and also the chancellor, who is playing a key role
So many of Boris's critics would attack him no matter what he did
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_people_in_Italy#Cities_with_significant_Chinese_communities
There's even a wikipedia page about it:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinatown,_Milan
By the way, below is the key point. Headline was no statistically significant benefit. But that was in an patient population that had been showing symptoms for 2+ weeks. With viruses the key thing is to stop the viral load getting too high and overcoming the body's defences. So early treatment is critical
According to the study, the death rate in Kaletra patients was 15.0% at day 28, versus 27.1% among placebo patients, provided therapy started within 12 days of symptoms starting, Raffat noted. When all modified intention-to-treat patients are analyzed, the difference narrowed to 16.7% versus 25.0%.
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma-asia/does-abbvie-s-hiv-drug-kaletra-also-works-covid-19-maybe-not-nejm-study-finds
Even as I type this the strapline on Sky is Boris saying not to visit your Mother on Mother's day
The polls will turn when reality sets in. If you care about such trivialities.
I see a lot of the same people saying I can't see how I could catch it just going out for a walk where is the harm in that.
The thinking for both sets of actions however is the same "I can't see the harm"
Just saying
Why are so many of our country, particularly the young, behaving so irresponsibly? It is insufficient to simply dismiss them as morons or idiots.
I predict a major jump in UK deaths today-a tanking on the markets tomorrow and a national lock down announced tomorrow...these are not predictions actually, they are just givens knowing now this virus works and how human's behave....
I believe the national lock down will be loosely enforced outside London- but in London after tomorrow we will something like a full blown police state begin to emerge
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/22/bt-ready-share-data-tracks-peoples-movement/
The next step that may well have to be taken is compulsion, and are you saying you are ready for a police state
I haven't left my property for the past 2 weeks and am well supplied for a range of meals, but it isn't the boredom (I am doing a lot of work) that is a problem, it definitely is the oh I really fancy such and such and I don't have it. On the plus side, great for weight loss, as no drinking and no bad treats.
This is not only as an asthma sufferer therefore reasonably high risk but also because I am aware that as part of a 3 man 24 hour support team for software in a few hospitals me going down ill is not good