Mr. Doethur, I did find it interesting that it ended there rather than in 1485 at the Battle of Bosworth Field (which I remember learning about in the first episode of Blackadder).
Without going into too much detail, there were several phases to what are now called ‘the Wars of the Roses:’
Phase 1 - an attempt to remove power from Henry VI and the Dukes of Somerset, and place it in the hands of a council led by the principal heirs of the King, particularly York.
Phase 2 - when this had failed, an attempt, ultimately partially successful, to remove Henry VI from the throne and replace him with York.
Phase 3 - the removal of Edward IV, who had made several silly errors and alienated the Neville family (Warwick, Montagu and Bedford) and restore Henry VI.
Phase 4 - the removal and ultimately murder of Henry VI and the re-establishment of Edward IV.
This is what Weir covers. Ultimately, this was caused by the weakness and incompetence of Henry VI. That is what caused York, and later Edward, to seek power for themselves. Once Henry VI and his son were dead, the issue was effectively settled, so arguably, the wars finished.
However, there was a coda:
Phase 5 - with the premature death of Edward IV, his two sons were kidnapped and their uncle usurped the throne. This destabilised the whole realm and caused a search for an alternative King. Ultimately, Richard III’s enemies settled on the Earl of Richmond, who had the crucial backing of the Stanleys (and possibly Northumberland) and was in a position to marry Edward IV’s eldest daughter. This is ultimately why he won at Bosworth and became Henry VII.
Phase 6 - an invasion from Ireland led by a carpenter from Oxford called Lambert Simnel, which was really an attempt by disaffected followers of Richard (Notably Francis Lovell and John, Earl of Lincoln) to retake power. It was defeated at the Battle of Stoke.
Phase 7 - a conspiracy centred around a Flemish boy called Perkin Warbeck and backed by Margaret of Burgundy (Richard III’s sister) which succeeded in causing rioting in Cornwall but was ended by Warbeck’s capture in 1497 and execution in 1499.
Ultimately however phases 5-7 were not a dynastic struggle. Rather they were a power struggle within the Yorkists themselves, caused by the idiocy of Richard III. So it is arguably whether they were actually part of the Wars of the Roses, even though the Tudors had an interest in making them so (because Henry VII as Henry VI’s nephew and John of Gaunt’s great great grandson was anxious to emphasise his royal connections).
So that is why Tewkesbury marks the end of ‘Lancaster v York’ in Alison Weir’s estimation.
On Spanish Tv there is a sign permanantly on the screen - #queda en casa - that helps t push home the basic message. There are still problems here with people from the big cities trying to get to second homes but some tentative signs that here in the south the rate of infection increase may be slowing. Lockdown life is pretty dull but set against the alternative... I just don't see why so many in the UK are failing to get it.
On Spanish Tv there is a sign permanantly on the screen - #queda en casa - that helps t push home the basic message. There are still problems here with people from the big cities trying to get to second homes but some tentative signs that here in the south the rate of infection increase may be slowing. Lockdown life is pretty dull but set against the alternative... I just don't see why so many in the UK are failing to get it.
Not to mention it's Death or Bongo: You can have a lockdown, or you can have a bunch of people dying, followed by a lockdown.
Whether it is or not, I think there is a big problem with graphs being bandied about on social media because in their different forms they are all showing different things, and as a result, difficult to interpret whether they are good or bad news. With key variants being whether they are on log or straight line scales, and whether they are showing total deaths/confirmed cases or NEW deaths/confirmed cases. And I say this as somebody who would understand it if explained properly (the fear is that people like Trump wouldn’t but would order action taken on them anyway).
In the early days (and still) we were constantly told about the need to “flatten the curve”. But that was in the context of peak new and/or “active” cases (with the knock on effect on hospitals). Probably on a straight line scale. Hence cases rising to a peak and returning back to a low level (before potentially spiking again). Having drilled that into people we are now seeing all sorts of graphs with flattening (or otherwise) curves - but these are usually total cases (and complicated by whether they are log scales or not). And then the mistake is made of using the latter to assess progress towards the former objective. All very confusing.
What is further difficult to comprehend is how the gap gets filled between where we/other countries are now, and where the experts hope to see us in future. So in the U.K. we are currently at c230 deaths and 50 new per day. But the chief scientific officer talks about 20k deaths as potentially being a reasonably optimistic outcome (i’m not sure if that is this summer, this year, or in total). Which begs the question of quite how much worse the deaths figures are likely to get in coming weeks and months. Are we talking about daily levels of Spain and Italy now, or much worse than that? Do we have a graph of the distribution of the 20,000 in circulation? Etc etc.
Apologies for lengthy post, but I think it just shows how difficult simplistic graphical representations of the science are, and how difficult it is to imagine what is, or might be, to come.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
On Spanish Tv there is a sign permanantly on the screen - #queda en casa - that helps t push home the basic message. There are still problems here with people from the big cities trying to get to second homes but some tentative signs that here in the south the rate of infection increase may be slowing. Lockdown life is pretty dull but set against the alternative... I just don't see why so many in the UK are failing to get it.
Not to mention it's Death or Bongo: You can have a lockdown, or you can have a bunch of people dying, followed by a lockdown.
Apologies for lengthy post, but I think it just shows how difficult simplistic graphical representations of the science are, and how difficult it is to imagine what is, or might be, to come.
Oh man.
Look. There's a bloody upward curve. Does it have to be treated as if it were a Festschrift?!!!!
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
At bedtime mine is 93 already, and I am not ill. Is that bad?
In the mornings it is 98, which I presume is good.
On Spanish Tv there is a sign permanantly on the screen - #queda en casa - that helps t push home the basic message. There are still problems here with people from the big cities trying to get to second homes but some tentative signs that here in the south the rate of infection increase may be slowing. Lockdown life is pretty dull but set against the alternative... I just don't see why so many in the UK are failing to get it.
Not to mention it's Death or Bongo: You can have a lockdown, or you can have a bunch of people dying, followed by a lockdown.
Whether it is or not, I think there is a big problem with graphs being bandied about on social media because in their different forms they are all showing different things, and as a result, difficult to interpret whether they are good or bad news. With key variants being whether they are on log or straight line scales, and whether they are showing total deaths/confirmed cases or NEW deaths/confirmed cases. And I say this as somebody who would understand it if explained properly (the fear is that people like Trump wouldn’t but would order action taken on them anyway).
In the early days (and still) we were constantly told about the need to “flatten the curve”. But that was in the context of peak new and/or “active” cases (with the knock on effect on hospitals). Probably on a straight line scale. Hence cases rising to a peak and returning back to a low level (before potentially spiking again). Having drilled that into people we are now seeing all sorts of graphs with flattening (or otherwise) curves - but these are usually total cases (and complicated by whether they are log scales or not). And then the mistake is made of using the latter to assess progress towards the former objective. All very confusing.
What is further difficult to comprehend is how the gap gets filled between where we/other countries are now, and where the experts hope to see us in future. So in the U.K. we are currently at c230 deaths and 50 new per day. But the chief scientific officer talks about 20k deaths as potentially being a reasonably optimistic outcome (i’m not sure if that is this summer, this year, or in total). Which begs the question of quite how much worse the deaths figures are likely to get in coming weeks and months. Are we talking about daily levels of Spain and Italy now, or much worse than that? Do we have a graph of the distribution of the 20,000 in circulation? Etc etc.
Apologies for lengthy post, but I think it just shows how difficult simplistic graphical representations of the science are, and how difficult it is to imagine what is, or might be, to come.
Mr. Doethur, I did find it interesting that it ended there rather than in 1485 at the Battle of Bosworth Field (which I remember learning about in the first episode of Blackadder).
Without going into too much detail, there were several phases to what are now called ‘the Wars of the Roses:’
Phase 1 - an attempt to remove power from Henry VI and the Dukes of Somerset, and place it in the hands of a council led by the principal heirs of the King, particularly York.
Phase 2 - when this had failed, an attempt, ultimately partially successful, to remove Henry VI from the throne and replace him with York.
Phase 3 - the removal of Edward IV, who had made several silly errors and alienated the Neville family (Warwick, Montagu and Bedford) and restore Henry VI.
Phase 4 - the removal and ultimately murder of Henry VI and the re-establishment of Edward IV.
This is what Weir covers. Ultimately, this was caused by the weakness and incompetence of Henry VI. That is what caused York, and later Edward, to seek power for themselves. Once Henry VI and his son were dead, the issue was effectively settled, so arguably, the wars finished.
However, there was a coda:
Phase 5 - with the premature death of Edward IV, his two sons were kidnapped and their uncle usurped the throne. This destabilised the whole realm and caused a search for an alternative King. Ultimately, Richard III’s enemies settled on the Earl of Richmond, who had the crucial backing of the Stanleys (and possibly Northumberland) and was in a position to marry Edward IV’s eldest daughter. This is ultimately why he won at Bosworth and became Henry VII.
Phase 6 - an invasion from Ireland led by a carpenter from Oxford called Lambert Simnel, which was really an attempt by disaffected followers of Richard (Notably Francis Lovell and John, Earl of Lincoln) to retake power. It was defeated at the Battle of Stoke.
Phase 7 - a conspiracy centred around a Flemish boy called Perkin Warbeck and backed by Margaret of Burgundy (Richard III’s sister) which succeeded in causing rioting in Cornwall but was ended by Warbeck’s capture in 1497 and execution in 1499.
Ultimately however phases 5-7 were not a dynastic struggle. Rather they were a power struggle within the Yorkists themselves, caused by the idiocy of Richard III. So it is arguably whether they were actually part of the Wars of the Roses, even though the Tudors had an interest in making them so (because Henry VII as Henry VI’s nephew and John of Gaunt’s great great grandson was anxious to emphasise his royal connections).
So that is why Tewkesbury marks the end of ‘Lancaster v York’ in Alison Weir’s estimation.
What I found astonishing when reading about the Wars of the Roses was quite how important “claims” to the throne (however weak/tenuous) were, and how by the end of them there was almost nobody with a claim of even highly obscure origin left alive. To the extent that in the end the person with arguably the weakest (male) claim ended up on the throne (Henry VII - albeit owned by victory on the Battlefield which complicated things), but who was followed by someone whose claim was probably pretty rock solid (not withstanding the stuff about Bolingbroke undermining the Lancastrian claim) - ie Henry VIII by virtue of his mother, if not his father.
(The complete disappearance of claimants to the throne of any legitimacy probably explains in part the emergence of presumed pretenders - the irony being that even some of the were claiming to be pretty tenuous claimants themselves!).
Did you know that if you rest one of your testicles on top of an empty beer bottle, and hold a flame at the base, eventually it gets sucked inside......If you've done this and know how to get it out, message me please...
I agree things look bad in the US. But that's another dodgy graph; it all depends on where you start the graph from. The US actually withheld testing from people in the early stages, and it took an age for them to get to 5000 cases. Since when they have rapidly been catching up. So obviously starting the graph at 5000 paints a false picture.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Best wishes to you both, Mr W. And to those others of our community who ill. How is Mr Charles Snr this morning?
London Fields was full of hipsters yesterday. Broadway Market was still operating, albeit probably at reduced capacity. I literally heard one girl mention to her boyfriend that they needed truffle oil.
The social distancing thing has not reached Hackney yet.
So another fall in Guardian readership on the way...
Does anyone still think Dominic Cummings is intelligent? I’m willing to bet he was the one who buggered up over exams as well.
He's intelligent, I suspect, by pretty well all measuring systems.
The trouble is that somewhere down the line he missed out on humanity.
Rather like the remark Denis Healey is reported to have made about David Owen.
If he’s intelligent, how come he keeps demonstrating he is so ignorant and thoughtless?
As I said, it's Healey/Owen thing. Healey is alleged to have said that when Own was born, the fairies gathered around and the good fairies gave him looks, brains and ability. However the bad fairy then made him a shit.
Owen is still about, BTW. Just written a book apparently.
And in so doing allegedly (it’s not totally clear*) misrepresented the Govt’s strategy. Still no surprise to have it confirmed that he was the “senior downing st source” who was responsible for the phrase “herd immunity” getting out there.
*i say that because although there was much in the news about a changed approach in response to the Imperial college study, I do wonder if that study was actually used an a convenient excuse to make it look like the Govt had changed strategy, when what has actually happened is broadly in line with what was intended all along. They absolutely had to get the perception that they were pursuing herd immunity out of the public consciousness.
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Does anyone still think Dominic Cummings is intelligent? I’m willing to bet he was the one who buggered up over exams as well.
He's intelligent, I suspect, by pretty well all measuring systems.
The trouble is that somewhere down the line he missed out on humanity.
Rather like the remark Denis Healey is reported to have made about David Owen.
If he’s intelligent, how come he keeps demonstrating he is so ignorant and thoughtless?
If we could have been sure on the numbers then it might have made sense as a strategy.
But given the uncertainty it was reckless in the extreme. The country will pay a heavy price for that mistake.
A week or so ago I referred to the strategic mistake as akin to a communication failure during WW2 where a ship gets sunk. But that is an understatement of how it is going to be actually living through this thing. We make a mistake and then for 12 weeks or more the consequences will be reveleaed. In that period, the country will just watch on aghast.
Thank god the government eventually changed their minds. Assuming they didnt initially support the herd strategy, Ferguson and his team at Imperial are heroes who will have saved 100,000s.
On Spanish Tv there is a sign permanantly on the screen - #queda en casa - that helps t push home the basic message. There are still problems here with people from the big cities trying to get to second homes but some tentative signs that here in the south the rate of infection increase may be slowing. Lockdown life is pretty dull but set against the alternative... I just don't see why so many in the UK are failing to get it.
Not to mention it's Death or Bongo: You can have a lockdown, or you can have a bunch of people dying, followed by a lockdown.
Whether it is or not, I think there is a big problem with graphs being bandied about on social media because in their different forms they are all showing different things, and as a result, difficult to interpret whether they are good or bad news. With key variants being whether they are on log or straight line scales, and whether they are showing total deaths/confirmed cases or NEW deaths/confirmed cases. And I say this as somebody who would understand it if explained properly (the fear is that people like Trump wouldn’t but would order action taken on them anyway).
In the early days (and still) we were constantly told about the need to “flatten the curve”. But that was in the context of peak new and/or “active” cases (with the knock on effect on hospitals). Probably on a straight line scale. Hence cases rising to a peak and returning back to a low level (before potentially spiking again). Having drilled that into people we are now seeing all sorts of graphs with flattening (or otherwise) curves - but these are usually total cases (and complicated by whether they are log scales or not). And then the mistake is made of using the latter to assess progress towards the former objective. All very confusing.
What is further difficult to comprehend is how the gap gets filled between where we/other countries are now, and where the experts hope to see us in future. So in the U.K. we are currently at c230 deaths and 50 new per day. But the chief scientific officer talks about 20k deaths as potentially being a reasonably optimistic outcome (i’m not sure if that is this summer, this year, or in total). Which begs the question of quite how much worse the deaths figures are likely to get in coming weeks and months. Are we talking about daily levels of Spain and Italy now, or much worse than that? Do we have a graph of the distribution of the 20,000 in circulation? Etc etc.
Apologies for lengthy post, but I think it just shows how difficult simplistic graphical representations of the science are, and how difficult it is to imagine what is, or might be, to come.
Well said.
It's extremely irresponsible for geeks, particularly "data scientists" to be churning out these graphs and publishing them on social media, and even worse is the press itself spreading them. Maybe make them to satisfy your own curiosity, but be very wary of letting others see them.
Every graph that isn't produced by an epidemiologist (or someone else with the appropriate knowledge) ought to have a giant bright-red warning label saying "I don't actually know what I'm talking about".
And in so doing allegedly (it’s not totally clear*) misrepresented the Govt’s strategy. Still no surprise to have it confirmed that he was the “senior downing st source” who was responsible for the phrase “herd immunity” getting out there.
*i say that because although there was much in the news about a changed approach in response to the Imperial college study, I do wonder if that study was actually used an a convenient excuse to make it look like the Govt had changed strategy, when what has actually happened is broadly in line with what was intended all along. They absolutely had to get the perception that they were pursuing herd immunity out of the public consciousness.
So what your saying is that the government masterfully and purposefully cultivated the image of making it up as they go along, rather than actually making it up as they go along.
When all of this is over it will be wildly entertain g to look back over posts from the end of Feb through to now to observe the posters who both backed and confidentially described the Government's 'strategy' as if it was some grand unified plan rather than a series of buttock clenching jumps and stabs in the dark.
The 'herd immunity by winter'ists will be the first in front of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Closely followed by 'the science has changed' arse coverer brigade.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Does anyone still think Dominic Cummings is intelligent? I’m willing to bet he was the one who buggered up over exams as well.
He has the classic mark of a really stupid person of thinking that when he has a interesting idea he is the first person in the history of the universe to have had the idea.
He also has the touchingly naive SeanT like belief in the power of AI/tech to solve problems.
That blog post on defence procurement (amongst other things) was a howling void of nonsense.
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Yep, hopefully. It was arguably a bit rich of Macron to have allegedly lectured the British about laxity of measures taken, having gone ahead with an election in France and seen the population of Paris take that as their cue to spend a sunny afternoon picnicking in the parks.
Incidentally re: that election - am I correct in thinking (I haven’t checked) that most French elections have two rounds of voting and the recent vote was round 1? If so when’s round 2 (or was it round 2/there is no round 2?)
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
I think they are all muchness of muchness. Try looking at the reviews and see if they look legit.
I agree things look bad in the US. But that's another dodgy graph; it all depends on where you start the graph from. The US actually withheld testing from people in the early stages, and it took an age for them to get to 5000 cases. Since when they have rapidly been catching up. So obviously starting the graph at 5000 paints a false picture.
Indeed - someone has probably spend a lot of time re-cutting that graph to find the parameters which make their point most persuasively.
In event, number of cases is becoming increasingly meaningless as already patchy testing becomes even more patchy.
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
We know that figures have at least a two week delay. We know that we shouldn't take today's figures and make judgements about whether the policies of a day ago have failed. But we're still doing it. PB is a mess at the moment.
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Yep, hopefully. It was arguably a bit rich of Macron to have allegedly lectured the British about laxity of measures taken, having gone ahead with an election in France and seen the population of Paris take that as their cue to spend a sunny afternoon picnicking in the parks.
Incidentally re: that election - am I correct in thinking (I haven’t checked) that most French elections have two rounds of voting and the recent vote was round 1? If so when’s round 2 (or was it round 2/there is no round 2?)
Round 2 has been suspended. Round 1 turnout was massively down, unsurprisingly.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
We know that figures have at least a two week delay. We know that we shouldn't take today's figures and make judgements about whether the policies of a day ago have failed. But we're still doing it. PB is a mess at the moment.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
Mine was the ATMOKO one off Amazon for £17. It appears to work fine, assuming my reading really is at 93 at bedtime.
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
We know that figures have at least a two week delay. We know that we shouldn't take today's figures and make judgements about whether the policies of a day ago have failed. But we're still doing it. PB is a mess at the moment.
We know Johnson's Ship of Fools has failed. The only unknown at this point is the body count.
Does anyone still think Dominic Cummings is intelligent? I’m willing to bet he was the one who buggered up over exams as well.
He has the classic mark of a really stupid person of thinking that when he has a interesting idea he is the first person in the history of the universe to have had the idea.
He also has the touchingly naive SeanT like belief in the power of AI/tech to solve problems.
That blog post on defence procurement (amongst other things) was a howling void of nonsense.
So Dom'll shortly be claiming to have been the first person to have seen it coming?
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
He does seem to have very low emotional intelligence.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Bought a cheap one on Amazon - seems to work fine - Foxy said they were all much of a muchness. The other things he recommended were a peak flow meter (for lung capacity- take a baseline when you're well) - again, bought a cheap one and thermometer.
We know that figures have at least a two week delay. We know that we shouldn't take today's figures and make judgements about whether the policies of a day ago have failed. But we're still doing it. PB is a mess at the moment.
We know Johnson's Ship of Fools has failed. The only unknown at this point is the body count.
Care to outline what wildly successful policy PM Dura Ace would have implemented, when, and on what basis?
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
Mine was the ATMOKO one off Amazon for £17. It appears to work fine, assuming my reading really is at 93 at bedtime.
Have you tried taking several deep breaths and seeing if the percentage goes up? I am NOT a medical professional of course, so take any advice I give with a large amount of salt. Unless you have high blood pressure...
And in so doing allegedly (it’s not totally clear*) misrepresented the Govt’s strategy. Still no surprise to have it confirmed that he was the “senior downing st source” who was responsible for the phrase “herd immunity” getting out there.
*i say that because although there was much in the news about a changed approach in response to the Imperial college study, I do wonder if that study was actually used an a convenient excuse to make it look like the Govt had changed strategy, when what has actually happened is broadly in line with what was intended all along. They absolutely had to get the perception that they were pursuing herd immunity out of the public consciousness.
So what your saying is that the government masterfully and purposefully cultivated the image of making it up as they go along, rather than actually making it up as they go along.
Well, it’s a point of view I suppose.
Precisely!
Originally the media messaging problem was how to gradually introduce new measures without generating headlines of “U-turns” as opposed to their preferred “a question of timing”. But then after Cummings went off message, they actually needed to change the message to give the impression that they HAD actually undertaken a U-turn to snuff out the extremely damaging “herd immunity” stuff. But if you look at what’s actually been done on the ground it rather looks like it has broadly been following something of a natural progression.
Where they have clearly been making it up as they go along (but not totally unjustifiably given the unprecedented nature of what has been going on) is on the Economic side. They’ve embarked on a completely different journey there where absolutely nobody know where we’re going to end....
Yes, this is exactly the point I've been trying to make in my recent posts. We are (mostly) not a nation of selfish hoarders. Rather the problem is simply the inevitable consequence of disruption to a finely tuned supply chain.
While the supermarkets ramp up supplies and people's cupboards fill, the shelves will remain sparsely filled. But when the two curves meet, the shelves will quite suddenly appear full again, as if by magic.
This also shows the “Project Fear” projections of empty shelves in the event of no-deal Brexit were spot on.
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
So if it works the National Trust can reopen its fields and gardens, just keep the cafes closed. But stay away from hospitals, doctors' surgeries and pharmacies which seem the most dangerous places in the country.
Calling all PB medics. - is this significant for dealing with the UK outbreak?
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
You don’t sound quite so confident in them as you were...?
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
Mine was the ATMOKO one off Amazon for £17. It appears to work fine, assuming my reading really is at 93 at bedtime.
Foxy suggested that cold hands can trick the devices. Warm your hands up, using whatever method is your preference, before use.
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
No, it's fucking stupid. Five minutes with a calculator shows that the approach would render the NHS totally non functional under the weight of cases.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
It is not utilitarian, it's the idea of a self confident moron.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
Mine was the ATMOKO one off Amazon for £17. It appears to work fine, assuming my reading really is at 93 at bedtime.
Have you tried taking several deep breaths and seeing if the percentage goes up?
My cheapo one does. The only oddity is it produces a higher pulse rate than my blood pressure monitor.
Has anybody rich or famous died from the virus yet? I did see an Italian architect had died a few days ago but I didn’t recognize the name.
You’ll have to ask our official scorekeeper, @Dura_Ace .
Nobody on the Dead Pool yet. I don't even think we have a confirmed infection.
I am splitting the contest into two awards: Boomer Remover Dead Pool Champion - first nominated sleb to cark it of confirmed Covid-19 infection or conditions caused thereby. Marco Bielsa Award for Sporting Excellence - first sleb to die who wasn't just a really old person found on Wikipedia.
In all cases the adjudicator's decision is final and not accessible to appeal.
Judging by social media, it might be more fun to bet on which Sleb doesn't have it, is in self lockdown in their luxury mountain/island/forest retreat tweeting about how bad it is, or has been tested even though they have no symptoms and have never even had a sniffle?
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
He’s also not a politician. Which is why all the politicians (not sure about Johnson) utterly distrust him.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
Mine was the ATMOKO one off Amazon for £17. It appears to work fine, assuming my reading really is at 93 at bedtime.
Have you tried taking several deep breaths and seeing if the percentage goes up?
My cheapo one does. The only oddity is it produces a higher pulse rate than my blood pressure monitor.
I can’t get the thing to stay on my tongue, it keeps slipping off.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Looking at these myself - a lot on Amazon are on 5-6 week delivery, obviously coming from China and probably never likely to arrive. If you spot one on for delivery in the next week please share.
PS searching on Amazon is the absolute pits isn't it? eBay much better for searching but eBay suppliers generally less reliable.
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Yes. Also, we have a different demographic profile and cultural habits to Italy.
Our population isn't as elderly. We don't go to Catholic mass en-masse. Brits do a bit less hugging and double-kissing in everyday life as a greeting. We live more in houses than flats and are slightly less communitarian.
The one exception to this may be the metropolitan cities, parricularly London, where cultural habits are very mixed and there are millions living in close proximity - a large number of which aren't changing their habits very much.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Pulse oximeters were designed using off the shelf components: one red led and one infra-red (the ones used in remote controls) plus sensors. They will need a chip to compare the results, but they are probably standard too. In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
Mine was the ATMOKO one off Amazon for £17. It appears to work fine, assuming my reading really is at 93 at bedtime.
Have you tried taking several deep breaths and seeing if the percentage goes up?
My cheapo one does. The only oddity is it produces a higher pulse rate than my blood pressure monitor.
I can’t get the thing to stay on my tongue, it keeps slipping off.
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Bought a cheap one on Amazon - seems to work fine - Foxy said they were all much of a muchness. The other things he recommended were a peak flow meter (for lung capacity- take a baseline when you're well) - again, bought a cheap one and thermometer.
Same here. Not used the spo2 gadget; temperature normal; peak flow 300 for the last week or two but this morning up to nearly 400 so there is an outside chance I've been ill the past few days without noticing.
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
So if it works the National Trust can reopen its fields and gardens, just keep the cafes closed. But stay away from hospitals, doctors' surgeries and pharmacies which seem the most dangerous places in the country.
Calling all PB medics. - is this significant for dealing with the UK outbreak?
I don't know but I do know it's restricted, private sales have been banned and the NHS taken control of all supply. I guess it's being tested (or held ready for such) on serious cases in hospitals.
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
No, it's fucking stupid. Five minutes with a calculator shows that the approach would render the NHS totally non functional under the weight of cases.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
It is not utilitarian, it's the idea of a self confident moron with private medical cover.
OT Japan seems to have mostly decided the problem is if you're in a closed space with lots of people and bad ventilation, and if we just try not to do that as much then everything will be fine. There's still hardly any testing, and they're reopening the schools.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
You don’t sound quite so confident in them as you were...?
I'm not. After a bunch of screw-ups with the cruise ship the government did (mostly) the right things in good time, and it had great results, which it's now in serious danger of pissing away.
And in so doing allegedly (it’s not totally clear*) misrepresented the Govt’s strategy. Still no surprise to have it confirmed that he was the “senior downing st source” who was responsible for the phrase “herd immunity” getting out there.
*i say that because although there was much in the news about a changed approach in response to the Imperial college study, I do wonder if that study was actually used an a convenient excuse to make it look like the Govt had changed strategy, when what has actually happened is broadly in line with what was intended all along. They absolutely had to get the perception that they were pursuing herd immunity out of the public consciousness.
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
No, it's fucking stupid. Five minutes with a calculator shows that the approach would render the NHS totally non functional under the weight of cases.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
Only if the NHS tried to treat them... That’s his problem - his ideas only “work” if he has control of EVERYTHING.
One thing does not quite add up about this Cummings story. He has been ill recently and his personal vulnerability/mortality will not be far from his mind.
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Yes. Also, we have a different demographic profile and cultural habits to Italy.
Our population isn't as elderly. We don't go to Catholic mass en-masse. Brits do a bit less hugging and double-kissing in everyday life as a greeting. We live more in houses than flats and are slightly less communitarian.
The one exception to this may be the metropolitan cities, parricularly London, where cultural habits are very mixed and there are millions living in close proximity - a large number of which aren't changing their habits very much.
Somebody linked to a study yesterday that found the average Italian touches ten people a day compared to the average Brit's five. It is difficult to see how such a finding can be that reliable, but it illustrates the point.
US numbers in now, +6513 cases (+48% daily), which is absolutely catastrophic. They are going to have the worst problem in the world.
In NYC and LA and Miami and San Francisco maybe, in West Virginia, Kansas, Wyoming and Montana probably not
Los Angeles has relatively few cases - don't forget that it is very low density, and with bugger all public transport. In total there are 200-something in the whole of LA county.
And this is a place with more than 10 million people - 25% larger than NYC.
So, while I have no doubt that it will be hit relatively hard, it will probably grow less quickly here simply because there are so many fewer contact points.
There is probably an earthquake lying in wait - is there a market on that?
I was thinking just the same thing. Of course, angelinos will be well stocked with staples in the event of a quake
I doubt that staples will be enough if there is an earthquake*.
You might need some glue as well...
(* for pedants, I'm referring specifically to a horizontal strike slip)
Morning Gideon, how are the family this morning? Hope they are no worse.
Thanks for asking. My wife is in bed and I'm just trying to keep the household going. She couldn't sleep last night as she said she was struggling to breathe. I slept on a camping bed in the other room.
Using the spo2 measure that Foxy recommended and her oxygen saturation is fine so. It's good to have one for those who haven't.
Boys seem ok just trashing my house.
Take care. If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Any chance of a refresher regarding the spo2 measure that Gideon refers to?
And is there a recommended brand/device? Had a quick look on Amazon and there is a large price range; I am wary of getting a cheap one
Looking at these myself - a lot on Amazon are on 5-6 week delivery, obviously coming from China and probably never likely to arrive. If you spot one on for delivery in the next week please share.
PS searching on Amazon is the absolute pits isn't it? eBay much better for searching but eBay suppliers generally less reliable.
Chinese deliveries are probably more reliable now than a month ago.
Is anyone surprised that herd immunity had Cummings’ fingers all over it?
When a few of us pointed out that the strategy rested on assumptions which reporting from Korea, Japan et al already called into question, we were told to pipe down by the Tory fan-club.
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
No, it's fucking stupid. Five minutes with a calculator shows that the approach would render the NHS totally non functional under the weight of cases.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
It is not utilitarian, it's the idea of a self confident moron.
Of course many more people would die - that's the inhumane part I was talking about! But would the economy itself necessarily collapse? The NHS would effectively suffer a heart attack for 3 months, and then, horrific as it is, it would all be over.
Just to make it crystal clear, I'm not advocating this approach - I love my oldies too much, and am pretty risk-averse myself.
Has anybody rich or famous died from the virus yet? I did see an Italian architect had died a few days ago but I didn’t recognize the name.
You’ll have to ask our official scorekeeper, @Dura_Ace .
Nobody on the Dead Pool yet. I don't even think we have a confirmed infection.
I am splitting the contest into two awards: Boomer Remover Dead Pool Champion - first nominated sleb to cark it of confirmed Covid-19 infection or conditions caused thereby. Marco Bielsa Award for Sporting Excellence - first sleb to die who wasn't just a really old person found on Wikipedia.
In all cases the adjudicator's decision is final and not accessible to appeal.
Judging by social media, it might be more fun to bet on which Sleb doesn't have it, is in self lockdown in their luxury mountain/island/forest retreat tweeting about how bad it is, or has been tested even though they have no symptoms and have never even had a sniffle?
In the event of my possible and, according to the laws of probability, overdue death my nephew has agreed to administer the DP. Should that eventuate you will have to type V E R Y S L O W L Y and use not big words as he is an RAF pilot (Voyager KC1).
Cummings' approach is perfectly intelligent if all you care about are utilitarian ends: resolving the crisis quickly, minimizing economic damage, improving the national dependency ratio and lowering long-term pension and health costs. He may even be proved right eventually if the world fails to get a handle on the crisis and it ends up spreading uncontrollably with no effective vaccine in sight.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
No, it's fucking stupid. Five minutes with a calculator shows that the approach would render the NHS totally non functional under the weight of cases.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
It is not utilitarian, it's the idea of a self confident moron with private medical cover.
Not so much corrected as enhanced for you.
Completely irrelevant whether someone has private medical insurance. It will not do a jot of difference.
Last night you told me I was spreading hysteria memes regarding triage. Have a listen to this A&E consultant:
He's giving his perspective of triage within hospitals. My perspective will be that quite a lot of patients will be triaged before they ever get near a hospital.
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Yes. Also, we have a different demographic profile and cultural habits to Italy.
Our population isn't as elderly. We don't go to Catholic mass en-masse. Brits do a bit less hugging and double-kissing in everyday life as a greeting. We live more in houses than flats and are slightly less communitarian.
The one exception to this may be the metropolitan cities, parricularly London, where cultural habits are very mixed and there are millions living in close proximity - a large number of which aren't changing their habits very much.
To be honest looking at the stats I'm not sure the UK is in a good place witout further and rapid considerable tightening. Hope I'm wrong but..
I think a hope for the UK moving forward is that we probably had a higher rate of self-imposed containment than a lot of other countries - Spain, Italy, and above all the US, for example - before official measures kicked in. We’ve focused on those who did not change their routines, but a shedload of people did.
Yes. Also, we have a different demographic profile and cultural habits to Italy.
Our population isn't as elderly. We don't go to Catholic mass en-masse. Brits do a bit less hugging and double-kissing in everyday life as a greeting. We live more in houses than flats and are slightly less communitarian.
The one exception to this may be the metropolitan cities, parricularly London, where cultural habits are very mixed and there are millions living in close proximity - a large number of which aren't changing their habits very much.
We do go to mosques en masse, especially on Fridays. And supermarkets.
It will be interesting to discover how this is really spreading so we can see which measures are effective and which can be abandoned as not necessary. Is there evidence of rapid spread through opera-goers or tube travellers (and the London boroughs with high numbers sort of follow the Bakerloo line) or Muslims or parents of schoolchildren?
Comments
Phase 1 - an attempt to remove power from Henry VI and the Dukes of Somerset, and place it in the hands of a council led by the principal heirs of the King, particularly York.
Phase 2 - when this had failed, an attempt, ultimately partially successful, to remove Henry VI from the throne and replace him with York.
Phase 3 - the removal of Edward IV, who had made several silly errors and alienated the Neville family (Warwick, Montagu and Bedford) and restore Henry VI.
Phase 4 - the removal and ultimately murder of Henry VI and the re-establishment of Edward IV.
This is what Weir covers. Ultimately, this was caused by the weakness and incompetence of Henry VI. That is what caused York, and later Edward, to seek power for themselves. Once Henry VI and his son were dead, the issue was effectively settled, so arguably, the wars finished.
However, there was a coda:
Phase 5 - with the premature death of Edward IV, his two sons were kidnapped and their uncle usurped the throne. This destabilised the whole realm and caused a search for an alternative King. Ultimately, Richard III’s enemies settled on the Earl of Richmond, who had the crucial backing of the Stanleys (and possibly Northumberland) and was in a position to marry Edward IV’s eldest daughter. This is ultimately why he won at Bosworth and became Henry VII.
Phase 6 - an invasion from Ireland led by a carpenter from Oxford called Lambert Simnel, which was really an attempt by disaffected followers of Richard (Notably Francis Lovell and John, Earl of Lincoln) to retake power. It was defeated at the Battle of Stoke.
Phase 7 - a conspiracy centred around a Flemish boy called Perkin Warbeck and backed by Margaret of Burgundy (Richard III’s sister) which succeeded in causing rioting in Cornwall but was ended by Warbeck’s capture in 1497 and execution in 1499.
Ultimately however phases 5-7 were not a dynastic struggle. Rather they were a power struggle within the Yorkists themselves, caused by the idiocy of Richard III. So it is arguably whether they were actually part of the Wars of the Roses, even though the Tudors had an interest in making them so (because Henry VII as Henry VI’s nephew and John of Gaunt’s great great grandson was anxious to emphasise his royal connections).
So that is why Tewkesbury marks the end of ‘Lancaster v York’ in Alison Weir’s estimation.
It’s a good job I didn’t go into too much detail...
If saturation goes below 93%, or respiratory rate above 30 per minute, usually coupled with a rising heart rate, then needs professional assessment.
Look. There's a bloody upward curve. Does it have to be treated as if it were a Festschrift?!!!!
In the mornings it is 98, which I presume is good.
The trend is your friend. And it's grim in the US. It's grim in the UK.
Geddit?
(The complete disappearance of claimants to the throne of any legitimacy probably explains in part the emergence of presumed pretenders - the irony being that even some of the were claiming to be pretty tenuous claimants themselves!).
The trouble is that somewhere down the line he missed out on humanity.
Rather like the remark Denis Healey is reported to have made about David Owen.
Healey is alleged to have said that when Own was born, the fairies gathered around and the good fairies gave him looks, brains and ability. However the bad fairy then made him a shit.
Owen is still about, BTW. Just written a book apparently.
But even Shakespeare was forced to use multiple posts to describe them.
*i say that because although there was much in the news about a changed approach in response to the Imperial college study, I do wonder if that study was actually used an a convenient excuse to make it look like the Govt had changed strategy, when what has actually happened is broadly in line with what was intended all along. They absolutely had to get the perception that they were pursuing herd immunity out of the public consciousness.
But given the uncertainty it was reckless in the extreme. The country will pay a heavy price for that mistake.
A week or so ago I referred to the strategic mistake as akin to a communication failure during WW2 where a ship gets sunk. But that is an understatement of how it is going to be actually living through this thing. We make a mistake and then for 12 weeks or more the consequences will be reveleaed. In that period, the country will just watch on aghast.
Thank god the government eventually changed their minds. Assuming they didnt initially support the herd strategy, Ferguson and his team at Imperial are heroes who will have saved 100,000s.
It's extremely irresponsible for geeks, particularly "data scientists" to be churning out these graphs and publishing them on social media, and even worse is the press itself spreading them. Maybe make them to satisfy your own curiosity, but be very wary of letting others see them.
Every graph that isn't produced by an epidemiologist (or someone else with the appropriate knowledge) ought to have a giant bright-red warning label saying "I don't actually know what I'm talking about".
Well, it’s a point of view I suppose.
The 'herd immunity by winter'ists will be the first in front of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Closely followed by 'the science has changed' arse coverer brigade.
Must be said, although a pet hate, it's very easy to fall into firing arrows.
It's markedly less stupid than the cliche of archers drawing back their bowstrings and just holding it for a minute or so.
He also has the touchingly naive SeanT like belief in the power of AI/tech to solve problems.
That blog post on defence procurement (amongst other things) was a howling void of nonsense.
Incidentally re: that election - am I correct in thinking (I haven’t checked) that most French elections have two rounds of voting and the recent vote was round 1? If so when’s round 2 (or was it round 2/there is no round 2?)
In event, number of cases is becoming increasingly meaningless as already patchy testing becomes even more patchy.
It's a useful experiment for everybody else to look at, I guess...
In other words, it shouldn’t cost very much to make a perfectly serviceable one. I’m not saying there aren’t dodgy ones out there, but a working one shouldn’t have to be expensive.
It's utterly inhumane, but not unintelligent.
I am NOT a medical professional of course, so take any advice I give with a large amount of salt. Unless you have high blood pressure...
Originally the media messaging problem was how to gradually introduce new measures without generating headlines of “U-turns” as opposed to their preferred “a question of timing”. But then after Cummings went off message, they actually needed to change the message to give the impression that they HAD actually undertaken a U-turn to snuff out the extremely damaging “herd immunity” stuff. But if you look at what’s actually been done on the ground it rather looks like it has broadly been following something of a natural progression.
Where they have clearly been making it up as they go along (but not totally unjustifiably given the unprecedented nature of what has been going on) is on the Economic side. They’ve embarked on a completely different journey there where absolutely nobody know where we’re going to end....
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1241634613774241792?s=20
Bit like Trump blaming the Chinese
(I'm actually being serious. There is no public health benefit from him briefing that out)
Calling all PB medics. - is this significant for dealing with the UK outbreak?
https://techstartups.com/2020/03/18/breaking-controlled-clinical-study-conducted-doctors-in-france-shows-hydroxychloroquine-cures-100-coronavirus-patients-within-6-days-treatment-covidtrial-io/
and if it's promising could you get it on a GP's prescription while ill at home?
https://www.medicines.org.uk/emc/product/1764/pil
Asking for elderly friends.
Orders of magnitude more people would die. The economy would totally collapse under the weight of the sick.
It is not utilitarian, it's the idea of a self confident moron.
PS searching on Amazon is the absolute pits isn't it? eBay much better for searching but eBay suppliers generally less reliable.
Our population isn't as elderly. We don't go to Catholic mass en-masse. Brits do a bit less hugging and double-kissing in everyday life as a greeting. We live more in houses than flats and are slightly less communitarian.
The one exception to this may be the metropolitan cities, parricularly London, where cultural habits are very mixed and there are millions living in close proximity - a large number of which aren't changing their habits very much.
You might need some glue as well...
(* for pedants, I'm referring specifically to a horizontal strike slip)
When a few of us pointed out that the strategy rested on assumptions which reporting from Korea, Japan et al already called into question, we were told to pipe down by the Tory fan-club.
HYUFD was at that stage still recommending broth.
Just to make it crystal clear, I'm not advocating this approach - I love my oldies too much, and am pretty risk-averse myself.
https://twitter.com/adamarch83/status/1241435230797533184?s=21
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-us-cases-spread.html?
Last night you told me I was spreading hysteria memes regarding triage. Have a listen to this A&E consultant:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p0877mb2
He's giving his perspective of triage within hospitals. My perspective will be that quite a lot of patients will be triaged before they ever get near a hospital.
It will be interesting to discover how this is really spreading so we can see which measures are effective and which can be abandoned as not necessary. Is there evidence of rapid spread through opera-goers or tube travellers (and the London boroughs with high numbers sort of follow the Bakerloo line) or Muslims or parents of schoolchildren?