politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How are the Dominoes going to fall?

SandyRentool said:

I see that plenty of people decided that today was a great day for a trip to the seaside.

We went to the seaside, but remained isolated in our vehicle, with our thermos flask and biccies. We have a 90 yr old to consider...never mind our own concerns.

An now for something completely different

https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15537

The Reign of Henry the Eighth, Volume 1 (of 3) by James Anthony Froude

Froude is obviously on the side of the reformation and even tries to whitewash some of Henry the Eighths deeds. Hagiography, in places, perhaps.

What is interesting, is the back story to the Reformation. Quite a lot of modern history goes - Henry needed a divorce. Pope said no. Henry started his own church....

Froude details the ongoing, ancient conflict between the Church and State in England - Becket vs Henry II was an early round in this. Henry V suppressed monasteries. The evolution of the Protestant cause from the Lollards is detailed and the essence explained - Men who read the Bible and failed to find the elaborate, worldly structures that formed the Catholic Church.

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

Was he Albanian, by any chance?

I keep on seeing Albanians mentioned a lot. Have I missed a meme?

An Albanian cabbie told me the other day "I had that eadric in the back of my cab..."

Was that the C developer Albanian cabbie - hates Python? Top bloke

Did you see my "discussion" about Python the other night?

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not Albanian and have never driven a cab

The 83 year old explorer Robin Hanbury-Tenison has got it. His son Merlin tells about it here.
Let's hope he pulls through.

Beibheirli_C said:

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

IanB2 said:

Was he Albanian, by any chance?

I keep on seeing Albanians mentioned a lot. Have I missed a meme?

An Albanian cabbie told me the other day "I had that eadric in the back of my cab..."

Was that the C developer Albanian cabbie - hates Python? Top bloke

Did you see my "discussion" about Python the other night?

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not Albanian and have never driven a cab

Missed it. Python is fine for kiddy scripters. If the people who own Matlab had taken my advice.....

Charles said:

I think you need to differentiate between a short term exogenous shock and a fundamental structural issue.

It makes sense to help airlines, etc rather than see them go bankrupt and people lose their livelihood. That help should not be cost free (which I am relaxed about the government making equity investments, although they should be non-voting).

It makes sense to protect workers via the companies for a short period of time. But if this is the new normal then you can't protect for ever

Thanks for the response, Charles. I know you have other things on your mind right now.

I'm not convinced about airlines at all - "national" airlines can be seen as a status symbol and propped up I suppose but I'd argue the business model for aviation is changing and will change further and it's the company that adapts to those changes that survives - the world has moved on without Pan Am for example.

I accept this is an unusual if not unprecedented time but if we start accepting it is the State's rule to prop up failing businesses just because we're worried about people losing their jobs we've lost the point of the capitalist system.

There isn't much epidemiology in the professor of politics's thread.

WhisperingOracle said:

This is capitalism as religion, I'm afraid. The lockdown provides no measure of viability - some much more long-term viable businesses are vulnerable to it than long-term unsustainable businesses - and so considering the randomness of this, the government has no choice but to, and indeed a duty to, recompense all businesses across the board.

Capitalism is not a state of nature, or abstract physical force ; just a particular application of trade. German capitalism of the last 45 years, for instance, is a lot less brutal and a lot more effective for its citizens.

We have consciously adopted a variation of the capitalist model that is very different from that followed in Scandinavia or in Germany. Ours has been a more brutal and adversarial model stressing the virtue of competition and the advantages that provides to the consumer in terms of choice and value.

Will this experience push us toward a more social democratic model with greater Government intervention? I don't know but I suspect Johnson, Sunak and @HYUFD would baulk at the tax rises needed to support such a policy.

felix said:

I think parts of the UK should now be seriously considering lockdown - London for sure although it would be devilish to implement it.

If today has been any guide asking people to "stay at home" has been an abject failure. We've had thousands head off to the seaside because it's been the first sunny Saturday in ages (and there's no football) and for those who work during the week it's their opportunity to stock up and join the panic at the supermarkets and elsewhere.

As you say, enforcing a lockdown in a vast urban area like London isn't going to be easy - the first step would be the total shutdown of all public transport followed by the closure of all shops other than pharmacies, food shops and delivery-based food and other businesses.

And yet many people will have no option but to go to work on Monday and risk infection because they cannot afford to be sick or take a day off because they need every day's pay to support themselves and their families.

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

An now for something completely different

https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/15537

The Reign of Henry the Eighth, Volume 1 (of 3) by James Anthony Froude

Froude is obviously on the side of the reformation and even tries to whitewash some of Henry the Eighths deeds. Hagiography, in places, perhaps.

What is interesting, is the back story to the Reformation. Quite a lot of modern history goes - Henry needed a divorce. Pope said no. Henry started his own church....

Froude details the ongoing, ancient conflict between the Church and State in England - Becket vs Henry II was an early round in this. Henry V suppressed monasteries. The evolution of the Protestant cause from the Lollards is detailed and the essence explained - Men who read the Bible and failed to find the elaborate, worldly structures that formed the Catholic Church.

You could, from that point of view, go back to the papal endorsement of William of Normandy as King of England.

I’m not an expert on Henry VIII, but my distinct impression is that what we now call the Reformation was actually a process made up of a series of decisions that happened to be personally expedient to Henry at any given moment for one of political, theological or personal reasons. So he broke with Rome over the Divorce, dissolved the monasteries to find money, and thwarted further reforms because he did not like the people proposing them.

There is a truth in many different views. My personal take is that Henry started out as a hard-core Papal Catholic. Some say he was being raised to go into the Church before his brother died. When the Pope told him privately that he would get the divorce and then went so publicly the other way, this cracked his belief in the Papacy as other than the crown of another Prince.

Which in turn lead him to question other things. He seems to have been personally impressed by the honesty of the moderate reformers.... And having read the Bible himself (not as common as some might think) had the problem of understanding where they were coming from.

What I am getting at is that there was a river of possible religious policies - a delta, with many, many branches. Henry took different turnings - but he didn't invent them himself. There was a massive push to the reformation in England - he joined it.

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ConradMBlack/status/1241182336529698817?s=20
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1241414397270073344?s=20

What happened in 1958?

A good question!

(I'm guessing it's supposed to say 1928, but maybe Korea. Anyway it's not just you that is puzzled.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1958

Yep - looked it up too.

Not something I was aware of. Were you?

Yes, but I was not aware it was so sharp or that it affected America so badly.

Top wise person! There was something the other day - much like 'sliced bread' that you hadn't heard of, Forget what it was - do you recall?

I think it was a puffer fish.

ah yes.

You've clearly got the more useful stuff stored

I am intrigued though as to why you associate puffer fishes with sliced bread.

Is there a story here?

Trevor the pufferfish was very fond of bread. However he struggled in that bread didn't work well in water and was generally big so far as a pufferfish was concerned. One day though, ...

No of course there's no story!

Anyone that suggests so is merely playing to the pufferfish media!

Any suggestions as to Herring and sliced bread though I 'll plead guilty.

Be careful. There's a raft of people on pb.com who think there is some sinister masonic Guild of Puffer Fish, who quietly run politics in this country without letting them in on the betting tips.

As if....

IshmaelZ said:

IshmaelZ said:

Foxy said:

@Cyclefree
I prune my forsythia after flowering, like many flowering shrubs it seems to blossom well on last years new shoots.

My problem is more with an evergreen ceanothus. I have a rather overgrown one, but think that you can not prune back beyond the green, as it doesn't grow back from older wood. Is this correct? I was thinking of pruning it into a tree like shrub, and replanting around it. Will new growth overshadow the replanting. It is against a sunny wall.

Spookily, I think forsythia is the quack cure pushed by the nutter in Contagion. Perhaps hang on to those prunings just in case.

More substantively: the standard advice is to replace ceanothus (esp the evergreens) when it gets past it rather than try to renovate, for the reason you state. Your underplanting shouldn't be overshadowed if against a sunny wall, because ceanothus foliage lets quite a lot of light through and where it doesn't, you can always thin/trim it as necessary.

I think it will turn into a reasonably shaped tree, and I am reluctant to replace, so shall have a crack at reshaping it, I think.

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

Started early this evening ......

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Don't hold back, tell us what you really feel.

rottenborough said:

At this stage, the US’s experiment appears to be going rather worse, and you certainly wouldn’t rule out Donald Trump judging November’s elections to be something that had better be suspended under the circumstances.

Even if he did, he automatically ceases being president on 20th January of next year, ditto Mike Pence. Speaker of the House would normally be next in line, but no elections mean no house. Next is Patrick Leahy as most senior Dem in the senate (given GOP would just have lost a ton of seats to no election), although I guess they could pick anyone they liked at that stage.

We all went for a drive onto the North Yorks Moors earlier. A LOT of people enjoying the early spring day whilst still allowed to do so. Various pubs / cafes visibly open - under what powers could they be forced to close? I know Johnson said close, I know they should close, but can anyone make them close without the CV19 emergency legislation passed?

Andrew said:

rottenborough said:

At this stage, the US’s experiment appears to be going rather worse, and you certainly wouldn’t rule out Donald Trump judging November’s elections to be something that had better be suspended under the circumstances.

Even if he did, he automatically ceases being president on 20th January of next year, ditto Mike Pence. Speaker of the House would normally be next in line, but no elections mean no house .... so it'd be Patrick Leahy as most senior Dem in the senate (given GOP would just have lost a ton of seats to no election)

Seriously? Is that really what happens if the November elections don't take place?

What odds can you get on Patrick Leahy as next POTUS?

RochdalePioneers said:

We all went for a drive onto the North Yorks Moors earlier. A LOT of people enjoying the early spring day whilst still allowed to do so. Various pubs / cafes visibly open - under what powers could they be forced to close? I know Johnson said close, I know they should close, but can anyone make them close without the CV19 emergency legislation passed?

Christ. Stupidity knows no limits. These fuckwits should have their license removed.

You should contact the authorities and report them.

felix said:

stodge said:

felix said:

I think parts of the UK should now be seriously considering lockdown - London for sure although it would be devilish to implement it.

If today has been any guide asking people to "stay at home" has been an abject failure. We've had thousands head off to the seaside because it's been the first sunny Saturday in ages (and there's no football) and for those who work during the week it's their opportunity to stock up and join the panic at the supermarkets and elsewhere.

As you say, enforcing a lockdown in a vast urban area like London isn't going to be easy - the first step would be the total shutdown of all public transport followed by the closure of all shops other than pharmacies, food shops and delivery-based food and other businesses.

And yet many people will have no option but to go to work on Monday and risk infection because they cannot afford to be sick or take a day off because they need every day's pay to support themselves and their families.

Many are working in Spain but I've been impressed by the measures put in place to safeguard them - very evident in shops but also in transport, garages, chemists, etc. There is a considerable respect for authority certainly in the part of Spain where I live and of course the country's History is very different from the UK but I find it hard to comprehend the failure of people to heed the advice and the warnings with the evidence of Italy before their eyes.

Totally agree, Casino R This morning was implying our lockdown was unacceptable and authoritarian. It’s not, we will do what needs to be done and 99.9% of the population will comply. It’s calm and measured and as yet I’ve not gone stir crazy.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Er - 100% eventually !!!!!!!

Lol - very good point!

stodge said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This is capitalism as religion, I'm afraid. The lockdown provides no measure of viability - some much more long-term viable businesses are vulnerable to it than long-term unsustainable businesses - and so considering the randomness of this, the government has no choice but to, and indeed a duty to, recompense all businesses across the board.

Capitalism is not a state of nature, or abstract physical force ; just a particular application of trade. German capitalism of the last 45 years, for instance, is a lot less brutal and a lot more effective for its citizens.

We have consciously adopted a variation of the capitalist model that is very different from that followed in Scandinavia or in Germany. Ours has been a more brutal and adversarial model stressing the virtue of competition and the advantages that provides to the consumer in terms of choice and value.

Will this experience push us toward a more social democratic model with greater Government intervention? I don't know but I suspect Johnson, Sunak and @HYUFD would baulk at the tax rises needed to support such a policy.

No this is temporary relief for the months of lockdown not long term socialism or even social democracy.
It should also be pointed out in any case our top income tax rate is the same rate as Germany's already and Sweden has a more insurance based healthcare system and voucher based education system than we do. It is not as black and white as above

Benpointer said:

Seriously? Is that really what happens if the November elections don't take place?

What odds can you get on Patrick Leahy as next POTUS?

There's some possible electoral college stages too, even absent an election, but good luck predicting how that would end up.

I added a caveat to the Leahy thing, in that it goes to this person ....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_pro_tempore_of_the_United_States_Senate

Normally nobody really cares who gets this job, but I guess in this scenario it'd be someone else. Could be anyone of the current Dem senators, minus those whose terms are about to expire.

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Preaching to the choir, I listened to you and acted accordingly. Where are you?

Yes you understood.

I am in a lovely little place in Penarth. Sea air good. I have spent the last week securing sanctuary for those I love, as best I can. Hence my absence. I still expect this to impact my extended family pretty grimly.

We are all going to suffer. The blossom here is gorgeous, this Spring.

Penarth?

Er... I don't like to worry you @eadric but take a look at the uk C-19 distribution map on this page:

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/03/live-data-coronavirus-crisis-all-you-need-know

UK is actually doing a pretty good at testing compared to peers
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETqYcXhXsAsze-6?format=jpg&name=small

eadric said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Those are ridiculous numbers.

I’m talking about Pb. Elderly male demographic, half of whom are still out drinking, apparently

The true death rate for over 60s is about 6-7%. Over 70s is 15%.

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Yet more BS.

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/ConradMBlack/status/1241182336529698817?s=20

Capitalism is a brutal, competitive, adversarial environment and it prospers for so being. Businesses fail even in good times because they are poorly run or their competition is better or their product is superseded by something more popular and cheaper.

I agree, to me it seems as futile as the government would have been trying to prop up all businesses during WW2. It could be years before any of these businesses are viable again if ever.

I wouldn't mind so much if I actually got some money out of it, but the biggest giveaway in history and I don't seem to qualify for anything. At least I get to pay for it all over the next decade or two.

I think most doctors do the same here too. My certainly does it. However, chemists don't usually have any screen.

Main problems were

this week they cut some public trasportation lines. However as people still went to work....it resulted in the following situation in Milan in the morning hours

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw-uTfmAVIk

and those at home from work seem not to understand what staying at home means. They go out to walk a dog, to run "individually", etc...ending up creating crowds.
This is a green area in Milan earlier this week
https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/03/17/163332262-ee8c05f3-88fb-4edd-81af-e3ea7b4e1425.jpg

So they need to impose an explicit ban...otherwise some people won't get it

felix said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

Markets were still allowed for those selling food. Now they are banned all together.
In small municipalities with weekly markets held on the largest squares, with only food vendors (and so kept way apart from each others)...it is less than risky than going to a supermarket
However, where they hold the weekly market in small streets, it is messy.

The rest is basically forcing all offices and industries to close (or totally move to at home work for administrative staff). Some industries tried to carry on especially the small ones.
Last week the government allowed companies from alla sectors regardless of size to accesso to "cassa integrazione guadagni" (a relic from the deindustralization past). It should cover the standard employees who can be left at home at 0 working hours and will be paid by the state roughly monthly 900 euros (if your gross income was below 2100) and 1100 for those earning more.
Self-employed and those with project based contracts are as always less protected. They introduced a 500 euros lump sum for them for March if they are forced to stop their activity

As for the hotels, I don't think they had many guests in this period.

The ban on sport activities is basically the ban on runners. Many discovered themselves as runners those days....one more excuse to go out..."to run"...then maybe you meet someone.

felix said:

AndreaParma_82 said:

New decree by Lombardy regional government:

Effective from tomorrow until April 15th.

- fine of 5,000 euros for those caught gatherings in public places
- the suspension of the activity of Public Offices, except the provision of essential and public utility services;
- the suspension of craft activities not related to emergencies or essential supply chains;
- the suspension of all weekly open markets;
- suspension of activities relating to services to people;
- the closure of the activities of the professional firms except those relating to urgent services or subject to deadlines;
- the closure of all accommodation facilities with the exception of those related to emergency management. Guests already present in the facility must leave it within 72 hours following the entry into force of the order;
- the stop of activities on construction sites: those related to health and hospital and emergency restructuring activities, as well as road, motorway and railway activities are excluded from the ban;
- the closure of the 24h automatic vending machines which distribute drinks and packaged foods;
- the ban on practicing sports and physical activities carried out outdoors, even individually.

I'm very surprised at a number of things here only just been banned - eg weekly markets, here in Spain they were stopped on day 1 of the lockdown along with most of the rest of the list. Has Italy really being allowing all these things while ostensibly on 'lockdown'. Makes no sense.

Street markets stopped in my part of Spain even before the official lockdown. All services to people apart from medical also went from day 1. Most medical is also not face to face now. To renew prescritions you phone a number and they load them onto your health card to present at the chemist which serves them from behind a screen! Apart from dog walking you are not allowed out of your home and only one person is allowed in private cars for food shopping, etc. It's really strict but most people support it.

eadric said:

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

I don't appreciate scaremongering.

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Yet more BS.

He's been digging into his stockpile of vintage tonight I see.

eadric said:

Benpointer said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Preaching to the choir, I listened to you and acted accordingly. Where are you?

Yes you understood.

I am in a lovely little place in Penarth. Sea air good. I have spent the last week securing sanctuary for those I love, as best I can. Hence my absence. I still expect this to impact my extended family pretty grimly.

We are all going to suffer. The blossom here is gorgeous, this Spring.

Penarth?

Er... I don't like to worry you @eadric but take a look at the uk C-19 distribution map on this page:

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/03/live-data-coronavirus-crisis-all-you-need-know

Lol. Nowhere is safe. Literally nowhere. My brother is on a mountain in Peru and they are on a curfew.

The important thing, for me, is to be in a defensible space, with fresh air, and access to sunlight and a decent hospital.

A defensible space?

Do you have a shotgun and a baseball bat?

Foxy said:

eadric said:

Foxy said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Those are ridiculous numbers.

I’m talking about Pb. Elderly male demographic, half of whom are still out drinking, apparently

1-2% for me, though pretty nailed on to get it, probably occupationally. Not going to stop me working though.

Incidentally, I posted a warning here before you materialised in this incarnation.

Your stoic and brave professionalism is an inspiration Foxy.

Bravo.

Casino_Royale said:

eadric said:

Benpointer said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

You total fucking morons

I TOLD YOU SO

So where are you? Come out West to steal our women and our hospital beds?

I made the greatest call in the history of PB. Better even than mike Smithson’s Obama for POTUS at 50/1

And now about a tenth to a quarter of you are going to die.

Preaching to the choir, I listened to you and acted accordingly. Where are you?

Yes you understood.

I am in a lovely little place in Penarth. Sea air good. I have spent the last week securing sanctuary for those I love, as best I can. Hence my absence. I still expect this to impact my extended family pretty grimly.

We are all going to suffer. The blossom here is gorgeous, this Spring.

Penarth?

Er... I don't like to worry you @eadric but take a look at the uk C-19 distribution map on this page:

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/03/live-data-coronavirus-crisis-all-you-need-know

Lol. Nowhere is safe. Literally nowhere. My brother is on a mountain in Peru and they are on a curfew.

The important thing, for me, is to be in a defensible space, with fresh air, and access to sunlight and a decent hospital.

A defensible space?

Do you have a shotgun and a baseball bat?

He's a writer. The pen is mightier than the sword.

https://twitter.com/LocksHeathCC/status/1241103836292530176?s=09

felix said:

She's a good lass: a military spook/nurse who ran a brewery.

"After leaving her local comprehensive school at 16, Atherton joined the army serving in the Intelligence Corps before becoming a nurse, training at Bangor University, later becoming a social worker. In addition she ran micro brewery based on Wrexham Industrial estate."

not_on_fire said:

And the government REALLY needs to get a grip on the panic buying. If they want the population to stay home then they need to secure the food supply. It may seem excessive having police officers in supermarkets but it’s what is required.

There are about 12,000-14,000 supermarkets. It's not practical or a particularly good use of police resources.

They'd be better off introducing rationing (there's a reason it kicks in during war time) and having response units for any trouble given that 80%+ will be self-policing.

theProle said:

Charles said:

kinabalu said:

Charles said:

A business that is not "seriously struggling" would rather have people remain in employment and working. It might trim back individuals, but if it decided to do that then it wouldn't be interested in a 3 month option to keep them on. Retail stores or others that have no revenues in this situation simply would have to fire people, which is what the package avoids.

That will no doubt cover most scenarios. I'm not saying otherwise. I'm postulating a couple of other scenarios that will probably also occur.

1. A business that would have struggled on for a while without the package decides instead to close now for at least 3 months.

2. A business not struggling that has people WFH due to the crisis re-designates them as being on furlough due to the crisis, thus unlocking the 80%

Yes?

1. What you are saying is that:

* Gross profit - fixed costs - staff costs < 0 - fixed costs
* Gross profit - staff costs < 0

Unless you view the drop in gross profit as being temporary (which doesn't work as you define as "struggling for a while") then it would make sense to continue operating

2. In practice this doesn't work, because it would need all staff to accept that they would be complicit in breaking the law (I assume) by falsely claiming. In order for this to work you would need to share the benefit of the 80%. This would show up in next month's PAYE unless you pay then cash in hand, in which case you are getting into a whole different level of criminality.

I suspect that there is going to be an interesting conversation amongst the management at work on Monday. I'm third ruler in the kingdom, after the two brothers who own the business. We currently have work in hand to do (we work on projects with long turnrounds) but the medium term prospects aren't great - our customer base is largely shut down at the moment (we mostly make stuff for the heritage steam railway world), and I suspect we'll see a dearth of new orders for a while after restrictions end. Should we close the doors now, take the government's 80% offer, hope that we've then got enough work from current projects to survive the dearth once normality returns? Should we carry on and hope for the best? Is business going to be so bad for the foreseeable that we might as well just give up now? It's a very hard call to make, especially as the government support currently on offer may well end right when we'll most need it.

How many staff do you have?

If your customer base is shut down, they may be ok with you reducing your staff, and extending delivery dates / easing payment terms.

Don't forget that with furlough you get to call the staff back when you need them as they are (I believe) still technically employed. If you can afford it, though, I suspect they would appreciate you paying the 20% to top up the government.

You should also max down your credit lines with the bank and carry the cost - liquidity is what really matters at times like this.

(Worth bearing in mind, though, that as a specialist firm I doubt your customers will go away provided that the market still exists)

Yorkcity

Keir

K-E-I-R

Why can’t PBers spell the given names of the Loto Elect and the Chancellor?

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1241480985318916100

stodge said:

Charles said:

I think you need to differentiate between a short term exogenous shock and a fundamental structural issue.

It makes sense to help airlines, etc rather than see them go bankrupt and people lose their livelihood. That help should not be cost free (which I am relaxed about the government making equity investments, although they should be non-voting).

It makes sense to protect workers via the companies for a short period of time. But if this is the new normal then you can't protect for ever

Thanks for the response, Charles. I know you have other things on your mind right now.

I'm not convinced about airlines at all - "national" airlines can be seen as a status symbol and propped up I suppose but I'd argue the business model for aviation is changing and will change further and it's the company that adapts to those changes that survives - the world has moved on without Pan Am for example.

I accept this is an unusual if not unprecedented time but if we start accepting it is the State's rule to prop up failing businesses just because we're worried about people losing their jobs we've lost the point of the capitalist system.

Indeed, but here the government has suspended flights and closed borders.

Ultimately this is a question of whether it is better to have a bankrupt firm and lots of unemployed people or a temporary scheme that might help it pull through.

These are not normal times.

Anabobazina said:

Yorkcity

Keir

K-E-I-R

Why can’t PBers spell the given names of the Loto Elect and the Chancellor?

Why don't we just call him Kir? A great name for a champagne socialist.....

Despite more French cases and deaths than the UK
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1241477088558940166?s=20

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1241348429546217475?s=09

The child writes better than the PM.

A report from a Specialist Trainee in London:

I received an email at 5pm on Thursday 19th March with over 150 doctors allocated to teams and varying shift patterns. We were informed that this would stretch, at the least, over the next 24 days but most likely for the forseeable future. We were expected, as per the rota, to start at 9am Friday 20th March. Yes, we were all shocked at the exponential pace of the changes and escalation.

The rota follows the following shift pattern. Each shift was a 12 hour shift (8am-8pm/ 8pm-8am)

1. 3 days on
2. 3 days off
3. 3 days on
4. 3 days off
5. 3 nights on
6. 3 days off
7. 3 nights on
8. 3 days off

I turned up at 8pm to the medical handover. There were over 30 juniors there for the night team, 5 consultants. Put that into perspective,where there are normally 5/6 night medical doctors on. They are taking this seriously and trying to act early. The entire rota was explained;we were divided into teams that we would stay in for the foreseeable future, which consisted of 6 people (2 SpRs, 2 SHOs and 2 FY1s).

With regard to PPE and training, I was worried that I had missed mask fitting and never had training as I think we all are. In fact none of the medics and most of ITU even have not had mask fitting and/or have failed the mask test. It seems like there are 2 types of FFP3 masks (1 that requires fitting, 1 that does not). When seeing a CoVID confirmed patient, the guidance is to wear a surgical mask, apron and gloves. There is a clear protocol with procedures such as taking bloods and cannulation that I’ve been taught. For crash calls and intubated patients, full PPE is required. I’ll be honest I haven’t yet received training on this and have been told clearly until I do, I will not be involved in care of these patients.