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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking on the bright side: another decade of austerity. At be

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  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676
    DavidL said:

    I wouldn't quibble between a 7 and a 8. I think Boris has done pretty well in his daily press conferences despite some really stupid questions, not just from Peston either. Every now and again his inner Boris breaks out but he has controlled himself on the whole.

    What the government is seeking to do financially is like nothing any British government has ever done before. Subsiding and providing liquidity to the banks in 2008 was an absolute dawdle by comparison. Instead of dealing with a couple of dozen serious players they are dealing with tens of thousands with all their own complications. It will be incredible if numerous mistakes are not made. In fact I would go so far as to say that if hundreds of mistakes are not made they are simply not moving fast enough.
    Yes, fair summaries, I'm obviously not a big fan of the Government but I think 7/10 is right, and 10/10 for good intentions. I hope someone in a back room is looking ahead to future stages as David is trying to do in his article.

    Do we think, incidentally, that house prices will soar because of inflation and the underlying supply problem, or slump because everyone will be clinging to their savings and fearful of recurrence?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Airport fomites and plane air recirculation must be a mahoosive vector

    On a cruise ship, for sure. Most aircraft filter their circulated air, which should reduce risk significantly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    edited March 2020
    Best wishes @MaxPB - I hope you have plenty of broth?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    I'm at work, first day of four to do. It's surreal. We're in lock down. No unnecessary movement off station, only responding to emergencies. No visitors allowed on station. Just four of us, eyeing each other up with suspicion every time someone coughs or sniffles. We share BA sets and masks between nearly thirty people on station so first task was to check and disinfect the set assigned to me today, then disinfect the station. The fear is that we spread the virus around station, which if you replicate that around the county means that we could have very few pumps on the run in short order.
    We expect it to get bad. Over the last few years we have made "gaining entry" a key part of our job. If the ambulance or police want to get in a locked building-say 90 year old Ethel has missed a hospital appointment, she's not been seen for a few days, family can't get hold of her- we get called to break in. Mostly, they're either out shopping, or asleep, but we find a fair few that have passed away. With the elderly and vulnerable locked away, we expect to be doing a lot of this over the next few months.....
    The supermarket over the road is heaving. I was going to pop in there tonight after work to get a few essentials. I guess that will be a waste of time.

    Doesn't your supermarket need a, er, blues and twos fire drill? 10 minute test = ten minutes of shopping....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Charles said:

    Nah, Anglicans are definitely members of the "universal Catholic church". Not protesting at all.
    The CofE is a classic fudge.

    I wonder if Theresa May would have got on with Elizabeth 1st.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    HYUFD said:

    The tax cuts also took the US out of the recession and actual negative growth it had hit by 1980.

    No the 1981 Reagan rax cuts did not significantly add to the national debt either, especially as they increased tax revenues, the further 1986 Reagan tax cuts maybe but not the first wave
    You appear to have missed the second part of my comment - ‘massively ramp up government spending.’
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    https://twitter.com/bipolarrunner/status/1241300450768572417?s=21

    https://twitter.com/declamare/status/1241277424500957184?s=21

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108

    Yes, fair summaries, I'm obviously not a big fan of the Government but I think 7/10 is right, and 10/10 for good intentions. I hope someone in a back room is looking ahead to future stages as David is trying to do in his article.

    Do we think, incidentally, that house prices will soar because of inflation and the underlying supply problem, or slump because everyone will be clinging to their savings and fearful of recurrence?
    We keep being told that house prices are a matter of supply and demand. Demand for moving house will surely slump, even after the pandemic, in a more risk averse world, and there will be an excess supply of houses coming onto the market for various reasons. I don’t see any scenario where (real) house prices go up. And judging from recent market movements, fear of deflation is as strong as of inflation.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited March 2020
    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    In Italy just 0.8% ONLY have Covid-19 - while 45% have 3 or more other illnesses. I think we need greater transparency internationally on how deaths are being classified. "Died from" and "Died with" could be very different numbers.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    Yes, fair summaries, I'm obviously not a big fan of the Government but I think 7/10 is right, and 10/10 for good intentions. I hope someone in a back room is looking ahead to future stages as David is trying to do in his article.

    Do we think, incidentally, that house prices will soar because of inflation and the underlying supply problem, or slump because everyone will be clinging to their savings and fearful of recurrence?
    I would have thought actually it will depend greatly on where you live. In your part of the world it might be that there is still a shortage so prices will keep pace with inflation. In Stoke, on the other hand...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    In Italy just 0.8% ONLY have Covid-19 - while 45% have 3 or more other illnesses.
    That is a remarkable stat.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, washed my hands fairly thoroughly, but the White Company soap is completely useless I think.
    Afterwards, you need to pull the handle across to unlock the door.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    I’m worried we’ll never see Dr. Fauci again. pic.twitter.com/uaBmIYSNDo

    — Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) March 20, 2020
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    edited March 2020

    I’m hearing that Deloitte have cancelled all graduate recruitment this year. If true, no doubt other firms will follow.

    This year’s university graduates are screwed.

    Not if they join Tesco or Sainsburys or M & S, the NHS, the police service, the armed forces, the civil service, Google, Apple, Vodaphone and other organisations little affected by this crisis or even seeing a growth in demand
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    edited March 2020
    Gardening Question for @Cyclefree

    How do I prune Forsythia without a) Stopping next year's flowers, b) Prevent it going too leggy? How do I deal with those huge shoots? Am I going to have to lose my flowers for a year?

    I have one outside my conservatory to light up the corner, and provide a block next to next door. I want it to be slightly higher than the 1.8m fence.

    (Forsythia - early 'splash of colour' bush that gets yellow flowers directly on new wood in Feb / Mar. )

    Cheers

    Pics via twitter
    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1241306024381997056
    https://twitter.com/mattwardman/status/1241306241676312577
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    I don't think nationalism of any flavour is great. I wouldn't vote for the SNP or Scottish independence if I had the opportunity to - I am a federalist. But people feel better and secure when they know who they are, and my point was about identity. Scotland has worked hard to push an identity. The English identity is what? Gammony drunks? Metropolitan liberals? The two extremes largely hate each other.

    England's basic problem is that it doesn't know what England or English is. We confuse England for Britain as if they are interchangeable. We don't even have a national anthem and our flag has become synonymous with racists and drunks. We propagandise people who aren't very bright with messages that the schools are against them and then wonder why educational attainment is so low.

    None of these are "nationalism". Brexit was a vote of the lost recognising they were lost wanting to forge a new identity of their own. I think my epiphany - having voted for a different kind of Brexit to what we are/were heading for - was that the Britain/England they have been told to want looks repulsive.
    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    The question for the US curve is how much of its sharp rise is actual spread because they were so slow in clamping down, and how much of it is statistical catch-up (finding people now who were infected way back) because they were so slow in testing.

    On deaths the UK curve doesn't look at all encouraging (although the decision to start all the lines from the tenth death looks arbitrary and may be creating a false impression)

    I don't really like that chart, because it doesn't take into account - for example - demographic differences. The second chart (infections from no 100) is better in my view
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    However the Germans are recording their Covid-19 death numbers, the UK Govt should follow suit - if only so that when this is all ended the comparison in short-comings of the NHS can be done on a fair basis. 4,000 v 40,000 is going to be quite a political battle. 4,000 v 4,000 - not so much.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    Not if they join Tesco or Sainsburys or M & S, the NHS, the police service, the armed forces, the civil service, Google, Apple, Vodaphone and other organisations little affected by this crisis or even seeing a growth in demand
    Working as temporary shop floor staff at Tesco or Sainsburys is really going to pay off that student loan. Good grief...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,676

    Paracetamol, plenty of warm drinks ...... honey and lemon is good.......and stay home.
    Yes, all good wishes, Max - you always sound as though you're of working age, so should have an excellent chance of getting through it if that's what it is. And then you'll probably be immune to recurrence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    If anyone wants more information on a country that seems to be facing total implosion over this:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51930856

    I know I have been, and probably will continue to be, very critical of our government’s bumbling, but they are doing a whole lot better than this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    IanB2 said:

    That line of argument would conclude that all manner of things don’t matter, when clearly they do. It’s no different to when someone becomes seriously ill; their work problems don’t matter any more.

    Exactly that - on a grand scale.

    When something terrible happens you realize that what you used to worry about was really not that important.

    Of course you can't live your life like that in real time. But a touch of it is IMO healthy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    I don't think nationalism of any flavour is great. I wouldn't vote for the SNP or Scottish independence if I had the opportunity to - I am a federalist. But people feel better and secure when they know who they are, and my point was about identity. Scotland has worked hard to push an identity. The English identity is what? Gammony drunks? Metropolitan liberals? The two extremes largely hate each other.

    England's basic problem is that it doesn't know what England or English is. We confuse England for Britain as if they are interchangeable. We don't even have a national anthem and our flag has become synonymous with racists and drunks. We propagandise people who aren't very bright with messages that the schools are against them and then wonder why educational attainment is so low.

    None of these are "nationalism". Brexit was a vote of the lost recognising they were lost wanting to forge a new identity of their own. I think my epiphany - having voted for a different kind of Brexit to what we are/were heading for - was that the Britain/England they have been told to want looks repulsive.
    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Wishing Max a speedy recovery.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    In Italy just 0.8% ONLY have Covid-19 - while 45% have 3 or more other illnesses. I think we need greater transparency internationally on how deaths are being classified. "Died from" and "Died with" could be very different numbers.
    Does it matter though if every icu bed is taken and hospitals are diverting resource to meeting the demand, it might be interesting from statistical perspective but would it change decision making?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    ydoethur said:

    You appear to have missed the second part of my comment - ‘massively ramp up government spending.’
    Carter increased spending as a percentage of GDP compared to Ford and Nixon more than Reagan did
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    kinabalu said:

    Exactly that - on a grand scale.

    When something terrible happens you realize that what you used to worry about was really not that important.

    Of course you can't live your life like that in real time. But a touch of it is IMO healthy.
    Maybe. But if someone seriously ill miraculously recovers, it might give them a different perspective on life, but you can bet that some of the things they had stopped worrying about will start to worry them again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    IanB2 said:

    On a cruise ship, for sure. Most aircraft filter their circulated air, which should reduce risk significantly.
    Except, as I understand it from a pilot, the airlines some years back took a cost-cutting measure to greatly downgrade the quality of filtering of air in their aircraft...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,650
    IanB2 said:

    We keep being told that house prices are a matter of supply and demand. Demand for moving house will surely slump, even after the pandemic, in a more risk averse world, and there will be an excess supply of houses coming onto the market for various reasons. I don’t see any scenario where (real) house prices go up. And judging from recent market movements, fear of deflation is as strong as of inflation.
    I think that regularity of moving house is already about half of what it was a couple of decades ago.

    Good business is you have a truck with a Hiab...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,325

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045

    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.
    England still incorporated Wales for 200 years before the Act of Union
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    If you hate your own country so much why don't you go and live somewhere else?
    Come on, I live here but can still see that the UK (and English in particular) lead the way in Europe as far as loutish behaviour goes. We had a stunning example in Spain only this week - in the middle of all they are trying to cope with hordes of drunken louts refusing to abide by the law and chanting "we've all got the virus".

    It's pointless shutting your eyes to it and pretending it's all Miss Marple and Glyndebourne. We have a problem and we would do better to try to address it rather than tell someone who points it out to leave the country.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    England still incorporated Wales for 200 years before the Act of Union
    Completely irrelevant.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Hope you get well soon, Mr. Max.

    The idea there's no such thing as an English identity is bullshit. A Yorkshire regional assembly would be a pathetic and foolish idea as it could never have powers equal to Holyrood without tearing England into fiefdoms.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
    The first King of England was Aethelstan, 924-939. That would still put it behind France, which effectively goes back to the Frankish empire of Charlemagne and more definitively to Verdun in 840.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    edited March 2020

    Working as temporary shop floor staff at Tesco or Sainsburys is really going to pay off that student loan. Good grief...
    Duh, Tesco and Sainsburys both have graduate management schemes, posts in marketing, accountancy, law, PR etc indeed I know a Cambridge maths graduate who works at Tesco head office
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Working as temporary shop floor staff at Tesco or Sainsburys is really going to pay off that student loan. Good grief...
    HYUFD has a secure public sector job so can be callous and thoughtless to those who aren’t so lucky
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
    As a long-time fan of the Royal Ballet - it's style is noted for under-statement and lyricism (shaken but not really stirred) by the Nuryev sensation in the 60s- quintessentially English. Not a bad definition for a nation...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    edited March 2020

    HYUFD has a secure public sector job so can be callous and thoughtless to those who aren’t so lucky
    Utter crap, everything I said was factual, all the left ever does is play the victim card
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    Completely irrelevant.
    More pertinently, not quite correct either.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    edited March 2020

    Hope you get well soon, Mr. Max.

    The idea there's no such thing as an English identity is bullshit. A Yorkshire regional assembly would be a pathetic and foolish idea as it could never have powers equal to Holyrood without tearing England into fiefdoms.

    I think the compromise to this, as part of an Independent England, is to have the House of Lords as almost a senate of English regions/counties, and keeping the House of Commons as it is.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    In other news, I want to thank - once more - all those who responded to my post yesterday about my mother-in-law’s funeral. I did have that conversation with my wife and it was very hard to do. But we got through it and the upshot is that the funeral will now be just 10 of us at the graveside, spaced apart, no physical contact and nothing afterwards, with a memorial ceremony to follow when all this is over. It sounds easy when written down, but to accept that through the pain of deep grief is something extraordinary. But that is my wife. I am so unbelievably lucky. More broadly, spare a thought for all those going through something similar now and for the next few months. At least my MiL was an old woman who’d lived a good, long life and whose time had come. For many others it won’t be like that, but the restrictions will be the same. This virus is a bastard in so many ways.

    I'm so sorry @SouthamObserver. I've been through many of these things in the past (not mothers-in-law to be clear...). I obviously can't speak for you, but in the past I've found it helpful to think of the funeral as being 'saying goodbye' (so very personal) while the memorial is a celebration of someone's life (hence much more positive)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    Duh, Tesco and Sainsburys both have graduate management schemes, indeed I know a Cambridge maths graduate who works at Tesco head office
    We don’t know if their head office grad schemes will continue as normal. I’m guessing probably not. They almost certainly are not going to be vastly increasing their graduate intake are they?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    isam said:

    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?

    Not MOST. No way. But, yes, probably a non-trivial percentage.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    edited March 2020

    We don’t know if their head office grad schemes will continue as normal. I’m guessing probably not. They almost certainly are not going to be vastly increasing their graduate intake are they?
    Given the increasing numbers of orders they are having to manage and the increasing revenues they are making and the challenge of ensuring they get their supply chain to get enough stock to fill the shelves and meet the huge demand they have at the moment they almost certainly will be increasing them actually
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    Kissing shrines in Iran, taking of communion in Italy. Clear that practices of the Abrahamic religions are going to kill thousands.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546
    isam said:

    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
    Ummm...at risk of being pedantic, *all* of those who died of coronavirus would have died of something else anyway.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    Given the increasing numbers of orders they are having to manage and the increasing revenues they are making they almost certainly will be increasing them actually
    How’s that going to work if most of their head office is working from home? How are they going to hold assessment centres? Group interviews?

    Are they anticipating a drop-off in revenue once the crisis is over and everyone has tons of food?

    I think the answer is likely not. Despite increased revenues, how many extra “graduate managers” do you think they need?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Doethur, that was Francia. And if you're using that yardstick you might as well predate the Carolingians and go Merovingian.

    Francia included Germany and northern Italy, so using that as 'France' is a bit like considering the Angevin Empire to be England (in geographical rather than temporal terms).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    Mr. Doethur, that was Francia. And if you're using that yardstick you might as well predate the Carolingians and go Merovingian.

    Francia included Germany and northern Italy, so using that as 'France' is a bit like considering the Angevin Empire to be England (in geographical rather than temporal terms).

    Wasn't Burgundy a separete entity?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045

    Completely irrelevant.
    No completely relevant
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    HYUFD has a secure public sector job so can be callous and thoughtless to those who aren’t so lucky
    There really is no need for such a nasty comment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Maybe. But if someone seriously ill miraculously recovers, it might give them a different perspective on life, but you can bet that some of the things they had stopped worrying about will start to worry them again.

    I can vouch for that personally. I am as a general rule full of neuroses and phobias. A few years ago the Doctor thought I had cancer and sent me for tests. Waiting for the results, I was a wreck. But I got the all clear. False alarm. Flood of relief and all of my cares disappeared, including my various "issues". Just happy to be healthy. Nothing else mattered. It was great and lasted all of, oh, a week. Then I returned to exactly how I was. No change at all.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    King Cole, Burgundy, from memory, was a very complex shifting state, sometimes independent, sometimes under France. Norman Davies' Vanished Kingdoms includes it (arguably the single most interesting chapter).

    The Duke of Burgundy during and after the Hundred Years' War was supposedly a vassal of the French king but often vied with rivals for control of or independence from the crown.

    If you mean during the Carolingian Empire, then I don't think it existed then. The closest equivalent might be the short-lived state of Lotharingia.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Woken up with a pretty bad cough and a bit of a high temperature today. Also lines up that I went through an airport around a week ago.

    Think I've got the plague.

    Good luck and best wishes
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Have a look at Norman Davies' "The Forgotten Kingdoms of Europe". And a look at a map of Central Europe pre-1870.
    That was one of the more interesting books I've read in the last few years
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Just as most people on here are unrecognisable from their personas four and even two weeks ago, I predict that they will not be posting this 'they would have died anyway' rubbish a month or even a fortnight hence.

    Death has a way of silencing even the most arrogant and, yes, that could well include me.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    Charles said:

    That was one of the more interesting books I've read in the last few years
    Thanks Charles and @OldKingCole for the recommendation, I think I’ll check it out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    Wasn't Burgundy a separete entity?
    Depends a bit on what you mean by ‘separate,’ and also depends on which time period you are talking about and which bits of Burgundy you are referring to.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IanB2 said:

    Is anyone going to graduate this year, with exams deferred?
    LSE among others are going for online exams apparently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    edited March 2020

    How’s that going to work if most of their head office is working from home? How are they going to hold assessment centres? Group interviews?

    Are they anticipating a drop-off in revenue once the crisis is over and everyone has tons of food?

    I think the answer is likely not. Despite increased revenues, how many extra “graduate managers” do you think they need?
    You can hold interviews over the phone, Skype etc. This is the 21st century.

    We are also not yet at full lockdown either so you can hold face to face meetings then get people working from home with conference calls etc after if needed.
    Given supermarkets are making vast revenues and profits at the moment as people are staying in longer and need more food etc that will continue for some time to come and indeed even once the crisis is over people will still need food.

    So yes the answer is they likely will and graduate recruitment by Tesco etc will be strong and resilient for a long time to come, and they need even more graduate managers now to manage the complex supply chain challenges they are facing etc
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    OllyT said:

    Come on, I live here but can still see that the UK (and English in particular) lead the way in Europe as far as loutish behaviour goes. We had a stunning example in Spain only this week - in the middle of all they are trying to cope with hordes of drunken louts refusing to abide by the law and chanting "we've all got the virus".

    It's pointless shutting your eyes to it and pretending it's all Miss Marple and Glyndebourne. We have a problem and we would do better to try to address it rather than tell someone who points it out to leave the country.
    We do have that but the Welsh, Scots and Irish are just as bad when they're on the drink.

    I agree we can be antisocial.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    In other news Owen Jones posting crap about the class war on Twitter. Can't be arsed to link.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    edited March 2020
    kinabalu said:

    I can vouch for that personally. I am as a general rule full of neuroses and phobias. A few years ago the Doctor thought I had cancer and sent me for tests. Waiting for the results, I was a wreck. But I got the all clear. False alarm. Flood of relief and all of my cares disappeared, including my various "issues". Just happy to be healthy. Nothing else mattered. It was great and lasted all of, oh, a week. Then I returned to exactly how I was. No change at all.
    It’s human nature. And Is why 75% of the “the world will never be the same” comments and articles we’ll all be reading this year will, once the pandemic has receded, turn out to be bunkum.

    Maybe instead we should admire those with the capacity to continue worrying about things like Brexit, rather than just obsessing about the prospect of imminent death?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Interesting thought that if this is indeed a War comparable to WWII, Peter Hitchens could be arrested, locked up and even hanged for sedition.

    I hope that thought brings some comfort.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,552
    MaxPB said:

    Thanks for the well wishes guys, the only upside is that hopefully I'll get immunity for the second wave.

    The thought of all those ultra-cheap cruises you can take should keep you going....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    You can hold interviews over the phone, Skype etc. This is the 21st century.

    We are also not yet at full lockdown either so you can hold face to face meetings then get people working from home with conference calls etc after if needed.
    Given supermarkets are making vast revenues and profits at the moment as people are staying in longer and need more food etc that will continue for some time to come and indeed even once the crisis is over peoppe will still need food.

    So yes the answer is they likely will and graduate recruitment by Tesco etc will be strong and resiliant for a long time to come, even if they need even more graduate managers now to manage the complex supply chain challenges they are facing etc
    What point are you trying to make here? That there might be maybe, an extra 5 graduate positions at Tesco or Sainsburys head office?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Have a look at Norman Davies' "The Forgotten Kingdoms of Europe". And a look at a map of Central Europe pre-1870.
    One of my favourite books and a goldmine for historical fiction.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Pulpstar said:

    Kissing shrines in Iran, taking of communion in Italy. Clear that practices of the Abrahamic religions are going to kill thousands.

    South Korea had that weird religious sect that pioneered its outbreak too.

    Orthodox churches are very different though.

    There you come in, and listen to a priest singing for a bit and waving some incense around and then leave again.

    Only a problem if you kiss an icon, which many do of course.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    We do have that but the Welsh, Scots and Irish are just as bad when they're on the drink.

    I agree we can be antisocial.
    Anti-social behaviour is not a British [ or English] only phenomenon - in my experience here in Spain most north Europeans are pretty similar when they come here for their summer breaks - sun and sangria produce much the same behaviour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    ydoethur said:

    The first King of England was Aethelstan, 924-939. That would still put it behind France, which effectively goes back to the Frankish empire of Charlemagne and more definitively to Verdun in 840.
    I said one of the oldest. Not the oldest. But you're quibbling about 80-90 years in the dark ages.

    It doesn't refute England's claim to historic and longstanding nationhood.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,520
    HYUFD said:

    Given the increasing numbers of orders they are having to manage and the increasing revenues they are making and the challenge of ensuring they get their supply chain to get enough stock to fill the shelves and meet the huge demand they have at the moment they almost certainly will be increasing them actually
    There isn't a linear relationship. If you double your stores you double your shelf stackers but you don't double your head office. You have to distinguish between capital and revenue type activities.

    I know you don't like applying maths to real life activities but maths applies to real life as well as the abstract.

    For example if you supply capital goods to a supplier of end user products ( eg a canning m/c for baked beans). If your customer has 10 machines and replaces one a year through wear and tear but in one year his sales go up by 10%, he will need a replacement m/c and 1 additional m/c.

    So his sales increase by 10%, but yours by 100%.

    Equally when his sales drop by 10% and so he no longer needs a replacement m/c this year, his sales drop by 10% and yours drop by 100%.

    See the relationship is not linear.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569

    I said one of the oldest. Not the oldest. But you're quibbling about 80-90 years in the dark ages.

    It doesn't refute England's claim to historic and longstanding nationhood.
    And, especially after it got a Viking-French ruling class, one of the most aggressive.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,123
    Someone recommended this as the definitive text on what is happening

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rules-Contagion-Outbreaks-Infectious-Diseases-ebook/dp/B07JLSHT7M/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1YX73EF1AJINJ&dchild=1&keywords=epidemics&qid=1584788568&sprefix=epidemics,aps,172&sr=8-2

    They were right.

    Interactions in schools and at home typically involve physical contact, and encounters that occur on a daily basis often last longer than an hour. Even so, the overall number of interactions can vary a lot between locations. Hong Kong residents typically have physical contact with around five other people each day; the UK is similar, but in Italy, the average is ten.[15]

    Kucharski, Adam. The Rules of Contagion (Wellcome Collection) . Profile. Kindle Edition.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    felix said:

    Anti-social behaviour is not a British [ or English] only phenomenon - in my experience here in Spain most north Europeans are pretty similar when they come here for their summer breaks - sun and sangria produce much the same behaviour.
    It's probably a function of living in a cold climate most of the year and starved of daylight for five months of it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,481
    Mr. Felix, I dispute your definition of 'news'.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    edited March 2020

    What point are you trying to make here? That there might be maybe, an extra 5 graduate positions at Tesco or Sainsburys head office?
    There will be extra graduate positions at supermarkets yes and graduate recruitment at companies like Vodaphone and Apple or in the NHS will be unaffected either longer term, so your original statement that 'graduates are screwed' was misleading
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,537
    Charles said:

    Good luck and best wishes
    Yes, best wishes.

    Is it me are we seeing quite a few posters saying they probably have this now?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    I said one of the oldest. Not the oldest. But you're quibbling about 80-90 years in the dark ages.

    It doesn't refute England's claim to historic and longstanding nationhood.
    Oh dear goodness. The Dark Ages.

    That’s a phrase looooong out of use.

    Edward Gibbon‘s personal foibles masquerading as history were perhaps a more apt field for the phrase ‘the dark ages.’
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    felix said:

    In other news Owen Jones posting crap about the class war on Twitter. Can't be arsed to link.

    Allow me. It's good -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/undervalued-heroes-coronavirus-crisis-cleaners-supermarket-workers

    Redux. Most essential jobs are low paid. Most highly paid jobs are not essential.

    A truth revealed (if one did not know it already) by coronavirus.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,546

    Yes, best wishes.

    Is it me are we seeing quite a few posters saying they probably have this now?
    Well, if so hopefully we are sign that this herd immunity strategy we are pursuing by accident or design is working.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,569
    HYUFD said:

    There will be extra graduate positions at supermarkets yes and graduate recruitment at companies like Vodaphone and Apple or in the NHS will be unaffected either longer term, so your original statement that 'graduates are screwed' was misleading
    Female ones often are, I believe, after graduation parties.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.

    Surely the English have been running the show since well before the Act of Union? The UK Parliament has always been composed of 3/4 English seats and the rest of the country gets maybe up to 25%.

    So any wounds are likely self-inflicted...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Yes, best wishes.

    Is it me are we seeing quite a few posters saying they probably have this now?
    We are indeed. Would it be appropriate to keep a little list: not for voyeuristic reasons but so we can keep one another in our thoughts, send good wishes and hear first hand about progress?

    By my reckoning we've had messages concerning themselves or immediate family from Charles, GideonWise and now Max PB
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    edited March 2020
    MaxPB said:

    Thanks for the well wishes guys, the only upside is that hopefully I'll get immunity for the second wave.

    Yeah, do get better even if quite selfishly the rest of us are rooting for you to pull through and become another brick in the immunity dam.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    kjh said:

    There isn't a linear relationship. If you double your stores you double your shelf stackers but you don't double your head office. You have to distinguish between capital and revenue type activities.

    I know you don't like applying maths to real life activities but maths applies to real life as well as the abstract.

    For example if you supply capital goods to a supplier of end user products ( eg a canning m/c for baked beans). If your customer has 10 machines and replaces one a year through wear and tear but in one year his sales go up by 10%, he will need a replacement m/c and 1 additional m/c.

    So his sales increase by 10%, but yours by 100%.

    Equally when his sales drop by 10% and so he no longer needs a replacement m/c this year, his sales drop by 10% and yours drop by 100%.

    See the relationship is not linear.

    You will also need more managers to ensure the supply chain is secure, to seek new production if required and changes to production for areas of increasing demand where needed
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    South Korea had that weird religious sect that pioneered its outbreak too.

    Orthodox churches are very different though.

    There you come in, and listen to a priest singing for a bit and waving some incense around and then leave again.

    Only a problem if you kiss an icon, which many do of course.
    And they spoon out the eucharist using the same spoon for every recipient.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
    Police in Sydney close Bondi Beach after too many beachgoers still go there
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51984725
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Quick question, how does the government intend to stop all companies accessing the wages grant scheme?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    HYUFD said:

    There will be extra graduate positions at supermarkets yes and graduate recruitment at companies like Vodaphone and Apple or in the NHS will be unaffected either longer term, so your original statement that 'graduates are screwed' was misleading
    How many graduates do you think Apple takes in the UK?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
    Yes, I'm sure William scoured the North of his unified nation for shits and giggles.
  • Regarding supermarkets. Head office teams have been gutted at the big 4. Their need for stock market profit declarations from organisations that are large and bloated has driven them to have several rounds of significant chopping away of managerial positions. That has meant they are increasingly unable to deliver the kind of functions they were able to do before (such as full spectrum own label product development) with that largely outsourced to suppliers.

    The notion that CV19 creates a huge new swathe of well paid managerial positions is for the birds - these businesses are not profitable enough to afford them, and shifting large volumes of low margin product in an all hands to the pumps operation will not fix their deep structural bloat issues.

    Morrison's have decided to use the crisis as an opportunity to rapidly expand their relatively small home delivery capacity. Whilst that is a positive from a market share perspective all it means is a higher share of a loss-makimg activity. They're doing it because they have to, not because they will make money from it. The long term winners will be Aldi and Lidl as was already the case...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    And, especially after it got a Viking-French ruling class, one of the most aggressive.
    The Anglo-Saxons were no shrinking violets either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,045

    How many graduates do you think Apple takes in the UK?
    Apple only takes the top graduates and that will be the same crisis or no crisis.

    However companies like Tesco, Sainsburys, Amazon and organisations like the NHS are all in the top 100 graduate recruiters and all seeing a surge in demand at the moment
This discussion has been closed.