What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
"... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."
If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests. There was a case in Germany or Austria some time ago where someone arranged to have himself slaughtered and eaten. The cops made arrests...
Eat this body, the flesh my spirit inhabits, Drink a toast with my deific blood, Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair. Nourished with blood and body, grow into my likeness, A temple to my glory, great Becomes the mystery of our cult.
Hear me Death in your empire unconfined, Extending to mortal tribes of every kind. On thee the portion of our time depends, Where your absence lengthens life, Your presence life ends.
But they offer a stark warning: Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
I often think of old Tess and wonder what she would have been like in this chaos. One thing I sort of like about Bozza is that he just lets the experts make the decisions - I get the feeling that Prof Whitty and Sir Paddy tell him what to do each morning and he just ruffles his hair and says “okay then”.
And appoints great chancellors, say the people who like what the govt is doing but have to find a way not to credit Boris!
When Richi wasn’t giving money away, it was Johnson’s govt not handling it appropriately...
It’s Rishi - he’s going to be another Keir, people just can’t spell the bloke’s name correctly!
I am giving credit to Bozza, I like the fact that he delegates. I wasn’t intending to appear sarky!
No I didn’t think you were
Fair enough. I thought he was pretty good today, at the press conference. I hope they don’t do them on Saturdays and Sundays as they need a rest. The boffins seem to be on a rota (Prof W/Dr Jenny/Rishi/Sir Paddy) but Bozza does every day which is fucking exhausting I should think.
His answer as to whether he’d be seeing his mum on Sunday was good! I think his humorous manner actually plays well in the press conferences, leaving the experts to deliver the serious stuff.
The first part of his answer was good before the characteristic Boris twist where he said he did hope to see her -- against all government advice and against what he had himself just said.
Depends, seeing could be over skype these days.
And that is what is now being spun but it is not what Boris said.
You said he said he hoped to "see her"? That could be either in person or via video call, as is common these days.
And that is what is now being spun but is not what Boris said. As I said before.
What did he say then?
There is a video here, and no doubt elsewhere.
“My advice would be that people should really think very carefully - irrespective of whether they are going to visit their mothers - about any elderly person who may be in a vulnerable group.
"It doesn’t really matter if they are over 70, the issue is whether they are in one of the vulnerable groups.
“Think very carefully about the risk of transmission of the virus and follow the advice. Our advice is that elderly people, people with serious underlying health conditions and people in the later stages of pregnancy, you have to be careful about transmission of the virus. I’m sure people will handle that advice accordingly.”
“I’m in regular contact with all members of my family but I’ll be working very hard on Sunday, I can tell you that.
“I will certainly be sending her my very best wishes and hope to get to see her.”
Mixed messages, perhaps, but these days I'd count a skype call as seeing someone.
For the third time, that is how it is being spun but is not what Boris said.
It follows a pattern where Boris gives a long, serious, and probably rehearsed answer, then his tone changes as he tacks on whatever thought has just popped into his head. He often does it at PMQs, for instance. Boris was cued up by the question to give the official answer, which is to keep your distance, then right at the end contradicted what he himself had just said.
But they offer a stark warning: Even if the country cut its rate of transmission in half — a tall order — some 650,000 people might become infected in the next two months.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
I often think of old Tess and wonder what she would have been like in this chaos. One thing I sort of like about Bozza is that he just lets the experts make the decisions - I get the feeling that Prof Whitty and Sir Paddy tell him what to do each morning and he just ruffles his hair and says “okay then”.
And appoints great chancellors, say the people who like what the govt is doing but have to find a way not to credit Boris!
When Richi wasn’t giving money away, it was Johnson’s govt not handling it appropriately...
It’s Rishi - he’s going to be another Keir, people just can’t spell the bloke’s name correctly!
I am giving credit to Bozza, I like the fact that he delegates. I wasn’t intending to appear sarky!
No I didn’t think you were
Fair enough. I thought he was pretty good today, at the press conference. I hope they don’t do them on Saturdays and Sundays as they need a rest. The boffins seem to be on a rota (Prof W/Dr Jenny/Rishi/Sir Paddy) but Bozza does every day which is fucking exhausting I should think.
His answer as to whether he’d be seeing his mum on Sunday was good! I think his humorous manner actually plays well in the press conferences, leaving the experts to deliver the serious stuff.
The first part of his answer was good before the characteristic Boris twist where he said he did hope to see her -- against all government advice and against what he had himself just said.
Depends, seeing could be over skype these days.
And that is what is now being spun but it is not what Boris said.
You said he said he hoped to "see her"? That could be either in person or via video call, as is common these days.
And that is what is now being spun but is not what Boris said. As I said before.
What did he say then?
There is a video here, and no doubt elsewhere.
“My advice would be that people should really think very carefully - irrespective of whether they are going to visit their mothers - about any elderly person who may be in a vulnerable group.
"It doesn’t really matter if they are over 70, the issue is whether they are in one of the vulnerable groups.
“Think very carefully about the risk of transmission of the virus and follow the advice. Our advice is that elderly people, people with serious underlying health conditions and people in the later stages of pregnancy, you have to be careful about transmission of the virus. I’m sure people will handle that advice accordingly.”
“I’m in regular contact with all members of my family but I’ll be working very hard on Sunday, I can tell you that.
“I will certainly be sending her my very best wishes and hope to get to see her.”
Mixed messages, perhaps, but these days I'd count a skype call as seeing someone.
For the third time, that is how it is being spun but is not what Boris said.
It follows a pattern where Boris gives a long, serious, and probably rehearsed answer, then his tone changes as he tacks on whatever thought has just popped into his head. He often does it at PMQs, for instance. Boris was cued up by the question to give the official answer, which is to keep your distance, then right at the end contradicted what he himself had just said.
I think we both agree on what he said, it is the meaning of what he said which is in contention. I think you are using a rather narrow definition of the word "see", to be honest.
On the school situation again, it appears that a large number of areas are pooling together, so there will be children from numerous schools put together so, at the end of the day, they’ll be going back to their own catchment areas. Others doing the same but switching from school to school as well.
How can it be that the most dangerous solution is the one that they gravitate to? It seems like they are putting logistics before safety
Probably because it is not clear why schools (or anything) are being closed. To the extent it is not to stop infection but merely to cover for increased teacher absences as staff self-isolate, this makes sense. As a means of controlling infection, it looks stupid, as you suggest.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
May would probably have been better, but Boris has one unique advantage that May could never have had. Boris does not have Boris On the sidelines plotting to oust him.
No. I don't think she would have been better actually. Indeed, might have been worse.
Bit of political news from the Merseyside frontline. My wife, my father in law and my mother (all staunch Labour party supporters, who vote Labour because they vote Labour!) have said....
Give me a minute here. This is hard to say.... they have said.....
They have said they think a Conservative Prime Minister is doing a good job.
My father in law went further, and suggested Matt Hancock was also doing a good job.
Police enforcing Californian lockdown a mate tells me.
Yes, my brother lives in San Francisco and said that yesterday he was stopped by an officer and asked why he was out. It was to go food shopping so he was allowed to proceed.
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
"... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."
If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests.
I doubt it, unless they were actually eating someone.
The church maintains that is exactly what you are doing. Now as an atheist, I personally believe that they are just much munching sub-standard bread and probably 2nd rate wine, but the message, to me, is one step from promoting cannibalism.
Yes, but you aren't actually doing it, are you?
The Church of England position on the eucharist, insofar as it has one, is that the wafer and wine represent the body and blood of Christ. It is a metaphor, if you like. The Roman Catholic doctrine, known as transubstantiation, is that the wafer and wine literally become the body and blood of Christ. That is the crucial point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
Yeah. They were weird the ancient Greeks.
They used to eat the brain of sparrows, thinking sparrows are randy so it’s an aphrodisiac
After Eating The Brain Of a Sparrow
I am the Knight I idolize, Seek no other prize; Independence recognize. I uphold honor, commitment and ardor, through ordeals prove worthy, and I yearn to obey.
I am the Saint. I dine on partridge, its heart imitation, it’s blood in water befits my fixation. The Knight rides in tarragon, Hunts light to dark in motion, consecration by depiction, A notion mirror of my mind.
I am your Valentine. A queen imprisoned in a tower with a web of words around her, her award for loyal service is ultimately surrender; because love at once illicit, human and transcendent, passionate through discipline, humiliating, exalting - so bright but delicate from a flame cherished into fire, ends cradled in a furnace where we acclaim a vanquished king.
Police enforcing Californian lockdown a mate tells me.
I have a friend who is thinking of trying to get back to Europe. I told him its just as bad here and if he does he will have to bring his own toilet paper with him.
Just been speaking to a friend in Holland - their hospitals already at breaking point and the army being called upon to assist.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
Well, the Netherlands is genuinely going for the herd immunity strategy. In two weeks it will either lead to the fall of the government, or we'll all be looking on in admiration...
Just looking at smoking rates, bloody hell they are still really high in Italy, France and Spain...and surprisingly Germany (more among the young). UK smoking rates are half of most of those other countries.
Just been speaking to a friend in Holland - their hospitals already at breaking point and the army being called upon to assist.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
Holland about the only western nation still pursuing herd immunity
I think the US are but not deliberately....
California already in full lockdown, non essential workers in New York and Pennsylvania told to stay indoors and even Trump has now advised people to avoid restaurants and bars
Just looking at smoking rates, bloody hell they are still really high in Italy, France and Spain...and surprisingly Germany (more among the young). UK smoking rates are half of most of those other countries.
You can still smoke in quite a few bars in Germany.
Just been speaking to a friend in Holland - their hospitals already at breaking point and the army being called upon to assist.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
Well, the Netherlands is genuinely going for the herd immunity strategy. In two weeks it will either lead to the fall of the government, or we'll all be looking on in admiration...
Eeeesh. Lots of risk with minimal upside. Unless you're supremely confident in there being a big iceberg it's a big mistake. If it works other nations will copy it very quickly.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
May would probably have been better, but Boris has one unique advantage that May could never have had. Boris does not have Boris On the sidelines plotting to oust him.
No. I don't think she would have been better actually. Indeed, might have been worse.
Bit of political news from the Merseyside frontline. My wife, my father in law and my mother (all staunch Labour party supporters, who vote Labour because they vote Labour!) have said....
Give me a minute here. This is hard to say.... they have said.....
They have said they think a Conservative Prime Minister is doing a good job.
My father in law went further, and suggested Matt Hancock was also doing a good job.
Truly the end of days:-)
I saw the TUC give a glowing endorsement to a Conservative Chancellor's actions earlier today. I think that hell might have frozen over.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
May would probably have been better, but Boris has one unique advantage that May could never have had. Boris does not have Boris On the sidelines plotting to oust him.
No. I don't think she would have been better actually. Indeed, might have been worse.
Bit of political news from the Merseyside frontline. My wife, my father in law and my mother (all staunch Labour party supporters, who vote Labour because they vote Labour!) have said....
Give me a minute here. This is hard to say.... they have said.....
They have said they think a Conservative Prime Minister is doing a good job.
My father in law went further, and suggested Matt Hancock was also doing a good job.
Truly the end of days:-)
I saw the TUC give a glowing endorsement to a Conservative Chancellor's actions earlier today. I think that hell might have frozen over.
I saw a Conservative Chancellor give a glowing endorsement to Socialist policies earlier today, so it probably has.
Just looking at smoking rates, bloody hell they are still really high in Italy, France and Spain...and surprisingly Germany (more among the young). UK smoking rates are half of most of those other countries.
You can still smoke in quite a few bars in Germany.
You could smoke almost everywhere in Austria until very recently.
Australia have apparently conducted 115,000 tests and only have 969 positive cases (of which a lot of those were imported / close transmission) and I think 7-8 deaths.
Just been speaking to a friend in Holland - their hospitals already at breaking point and the army being called upon to assist.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
Well, the Netherlands is genuinely going for the herd immunity strategy. In two weeks it will either lead to the fall of the government, or we'll all be looking on in admiration...
Maybe it's easier to achieve herd immunity in a small and densely populated country like the Netherlands. I don't know, that may be to misunderstand how it works.
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
Just been speaking to a friend in Holland - their hospitals already at breaking point and the army being called upon to assist.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
Well, the Netherlands is genuinely going for the herd immunity strategy. In two weeks it will either lead to the fall of the government, or we'll all be looking on in admiration...
Maybe it's easier to achieve herd immunity in a small and densely populated country like the Netherlands. I don't know, that may be to misunderstand how it works.
I think it's more the other way around - they realise that lockdown is going to be harder in a small densely populated country, where people would need to be cooped up in small apartments.
The good news is that the rest of us will soon find out what the real death rates are for CV-19. Will the Netherlands see 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.8%, 1.2% or 2%+.
My guess is that the policy doesn't survive reality. When you hear the sirens going all day and all night. And your friend's mother dies of CV-19, while your father-in-law is on a ventilator in a hallway at an overcrowded hospital. Well, you'll think the policy was bloody stupid.
But I also think the more severe this first wave, the easier the future will be. The next government will be lucky enough to have a significant minority of the population immune to the disease (even if only temporarily).
I suspect that 40% of the Dutch will get the disease before they slam the brakes on. The irony being, then, that they'll probably be past the peak at that point.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
May would probably have been better, but Boris has one unique advantage that May could never have had. Boris does not have Boris On the sidelines plotting to oust him.
No. I don't think she would have been better actually. Indeed, might have been worse.
Bit of political news from the Merseyside frontline. My wife, my father in law and my mother (all staunch Labour party supporters, who vote Labour because they vote Labour!) have said....
Give me a minute here. This is hard to say.... they have said.....
They have said they think a Conservative Prime Minister is doing a good job.
My father in law went further, and suggested Matt Hancock was also doing a good job.
Truly the end of days:-)
I saw the TUC give a glowing endorsement to a Conservative Chancellor's actions earlier today. I think that hell might have frozen over.
I saw a Conservative Chancellor give a glowing endorsement to Socialist policies earlier today, so it probably has.
The great thing about Nationalsunakismus is that we get a budget every three days.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Just been speaking to a friend in Holland - their hospitals already at breaking point and the army being called upon to assist.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
Indeed - this will affect all health services in all countries in much the same way - the pretence that the UK will be uniquely bad is just that - a pretence. Of course we could spend billions on snowploughs from now on every year impoverishing our children and let them rot and rust while only being used once in 30 years - but that is the socialist nirvana we're hearing about from the lefties tonight on here.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
May would probably have been better, but Boris has one unique advantage that May could never have had. Boris does not have Boris On the sidelines plotting to oust him.
No. I don't think she would have been better actually. Indeed, might have been worse.
Bit of political news from the Merseyside frontline. My wife, my father in law and my mother (all staunch Labour party supporters, who vote Labour because they vote Labour!) have said....
Give me a minute here. This is hard to say.... they have said.....
They have said they think a Conservative Prime Minister is doing a good job.
My father in law went further, and suggested Matt Hancock was also doing a good job.
Truly the end of days:-)
I saw the TUC give a glowing endorsement to a Conservative Chancellor's actions earlier today. I think that hell might have frozen over.
I saw a Conservative Chancellor give a glowing endorsement to Socialist policies earlier today, so it probably has.
I saw a Conservative Chancellor give a reluctant endorsement to Realpolitik in extremis. Nothing more.
Unless you are self-employed, in which case the politik still has quite a way to go to get Real.
Just looking at smoking rates, bloody hell they are still really high in Italy, France and Spain...and surprisingly Germany (more among the young). UK smoking rates are half of most of those other countries.
Big Tobacco is going to face one hell of a class action when this is done.
Has anyone watched the trailer for the Contagion movie from 2011? I just did: even the virus in the film looks uncannily like Covid-19.
You should watch the whole movie! It's like viewing a documentary. The mortality rate in that movie is higher but otherwise it's eerily alike to this one. Mind you, maybe it's not so surprising since epidemologists and virologists were closely involved including Professor Ian Lipkin from WHO.
Having been (rightly) critical of the UK Government I'd like to go on record as saying that I think they've upped their game. Johnson and Sunak were good yesterday. We've been horribly slow off the mark but it's better to get up to speed than continuing to dawdle in first gear.
I'd currently rate Boris' handling as positive. He looks knackered too which is good. He should do.
Yesterday Italy had about 47,000 cases and the Netherlands about 3,000 cases. It looks as if Italy will peak before the Netherlands or at the same time as it. However Italy will have more economic damage as the Netherlands is pursuing the herd immunity strategy.
One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".
I think the fundamental shift (which might have been coming anyway) is going to be away from the small-statism of the last 40 years.
Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.
The question for me is actually how much extra spending is really needed.
The big lesson is the lack of resilience in the system, whether it be just in time manufacturing supply chains or in running the NHS at 95% of capacity as normal.
I think we will see more manufacturing onshoring as people fix that problem (which will possibly increase costs - although someone I was speaking to yesterday pointed out that quality intermediate goods from China are about the same price as Western versions). That will result in a good number of well paid, secure jobs, but also higher costs for consumers.
On the NHS, thought, we need more hospitals (I believe there are 40 being built...) and more trained staff. However those are not huge costs in the overall scheme of things and, in many cases, are one time capital expenditure. The biggest elements of government spending remain pensions and welfare and I'm not sure I see the argument for fundamental changes as a result of COVID.
"Maurizio Massari, the country’s permanent representative of the EU, complained that while Italy had asked the EU for medical equipment, “unfortunately, not a single EU country responded to the Commission’s call.” Instead, “only China responded bilaterally. Certainly, this is not a good sign of European solidarity”."
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I would have thought twice before doing that if I were the Fat Controller. If President Xi wants to earn some easy international cred to make up for this Coronavirus clusterfuck, sending in the PLA and finally destroying the Kim family would be an easy win.
I mean, I know we've tried 35 years of not taxing rich people but it seems to have a few problems. I say we try taxing rich people again.
Rich people pay 45% of their income in tax at the highest level, they are not taxed nothing
Compared to 1945 to 1980 they are taxed not very much.
Ah yes and what fgreat times they were for happiness, contentment and general prosp.. oh wait a minute. no they weren't.
The 60's? I remember them, and yes I was there. And it was the most positive and optimistic decade that I remember. There were bad moments of course, but generally it was onwards and upwards. Of course I was in my mid to late 20's, wife, young family and I was happy in my work.
Just looking at smoking rates, bloody hell they are still really high in Italy, France and Spain...and surprisingly Germany (more among the young). UK smoking rates are half of most of those other countries.
I do wonder if a positive legacy of COVID-19 might be reduced smoking rates.
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
"... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."
If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests.
I doubt it, unless they were actually eating someone.
The church maintains that is exactly what you are doing. Now as an atheist, I personally believe that they are just much munching sub-standard bread and probably 2nd rate wine, but the message, to me, is one step from promoting cannibalism.
Yes, but you aren't actually doing it, are you?
The Church of England position on the eucharist, insofar as it has one, is that the wafer and wine represent the body and blood of Christ. It is a metaphor, if you like. The Roman Catholic doctrine, known as transubstantiation, is that the wafer and wine literally become the body and blood of Christ. That is the crucial point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
The clue being in Christ's instruction "do this in memory of me"
Mr. JohnL, isn't the Anglican position consubstantiation?
I really liked Religious Studies at school, mostly due to our excellent teacher. His view of the Methodist ban on wine was akin to Jack Sparrow's adherence to the laws of piracy.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Who said the Uk was uniquely bad? You might be projecting.
Lots of governments have failed, but that doesn’t change the fact that they have failed. We were warned about this epidemic before it happened. When it spread in China governments did nothing. When it was on our doorstep In Italy, governments did nothing. Now governments are managing crises and killing the economy to do it. That is not success. For now we must support the government in its efforts, but make no mistake there will have to be inquiries into how this catastrophe happened.
He reminds me of the late John Mortimer, whose reaction to a ban on smoking in public was to take up smoking, even though he admitted he hated tobacco.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
May would probably have been better, but Boris has one unique advantage that May could never have had. Boris does not have Boris On the sidelines plotting to oust him.
Would May have been better ? I’m as relieved as isam says she is that she’s gone. And I say that as a Boris anti-fan.
May would have been an utter disaster.
There would be loads of “Stay Home” vans roaming the streets.
He reminds me of the late John Mortimer, whose reaction to a ban on smoking in public was to take up smoking, even though he admitted he hated tobacco.
He thinks he's cleverer than he is. But he is just plain mediocre and simply uses a contrarianism heuristic instead of thinking or evaluating evidence. Usually he can be tolerated as a slightly embarrassing quirk of British life but unfortunately that sort of tweet is dangerous. Thankfully hardly anyone takes him seriously.
What's he done this time? Looked back, and can't see anything particularly odd.
He said coronavirus, or the response to it, is 'an irrational, destructive state-sponsored panic'.
That's bonkers.
Would “rational, destructive, state-sponsored emergency“ be more accurate. The action certainly has destructive consequences, it is definitely state sponsored and there are emergency measures, but under the unfortunate circumstances it is rational.
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
I often think of old Tess and wonder what she would have been like in this chaos. One thing I sort of like about Bozza is that he just lets the experts make the decisions - I get the feeling that Prof Whitty and Sir Paddy tell him what to do each morning and he just ruffles his hair and says “okay then”.
And appoints great chancellors, say the people who like what the govt is doing but have to find a way not to credit Boris!
When Richi wasn’t giving money away, it was Johnson’s govt not handling it appropriately...
It’s Rishi - he’s going to be another Keir, people just can’t spell the bloke’s name correctly!
I am giving credit to Bozza, I like the fact that he delegates. I wasn’t intending to appear sarky!
No I didn’t think you were
Fair enough. I thought he was pretty good today, at the press conference. I hope they don’t do them on Saturdays and Sundays as they need a rest. The boffins seem to be on a rota (Prof W/Dr Jenny/Rishi/Sir Paddy) but Bozza does every day which is fucking exhausting I should think.
His answer as to whether he’d be seeing his mum on Sunday was good! I think his humorous manner actually plays well in the press conferences, leaving the experts to deliver the serious stuff.
The first part of his answer was good before the characteristic Boris twist where he said he did hope to see her -- against all government advice and against what he had himself just said.
Depends, seeing could be over skype these days.
And that is what is now being spun but it is not what Boris said.
You said he said he hoped to "see her"? That could be either in person or via video call, as is common these days.
And that is what is now being spun but is not what Boris said. As I said before.
What did he say then?
There is a video here, and no doubt elsewhere.
“My advice would be that people should really think very carefully - irrespective of whether they are going to visit their mothers - about any elderly person who may be in a vulnerable group.
"It doesn’t really matter if they are over 70, the issue is whether they are in one of the vulnerable groups.
“Think very carefully about the risk of transmission of the virus and follow the advice. Our advice is that elderly people, people with serious underlying health conditions and people in the later stages of pregnancy, you have to be careful about transmission of the virus. I’m sure people will handle that advice accordingly.”
“I’m in regular contact with all members of my family but I’ll be working very hard on Sunday, I can tell you that.
“I will certainly be sending her my very best wishes and hope to get to see her.”
Mixed messages, perhaps, but these days I'd count a skype call as seeing someone.
For the third time, that is how it is being spun but is not what Boris said.
It follows a pattern where Boris gives a long, serious, and probably rehearsed answer, then his tone changes as he tacks on whatever thought has just popped into his head. He often does it at PMQs, for instance. Boris was cued up by the question to give the official answer, which is to keep your distance, then right at the end contradicted what he himself had just said.
I think we both agree on what he said, it is the meaning of what he said which is in contention. I think you are using a rather narrow definition of the word "see", to be honest.
I thought it was quite obvious that Boris already has plans to see his mother, intends to go through with them, and was trying to cover himself against the inevitable expose if he said nothing and was then discovered. We all know that Boris lives his life under the belief that rules and standards are for others.
We are not going back to where we were before. Taxes will undoubtedly have to rise. Offshore money is going to be a whole lot harder to hide away than it has been before. The red wall seats are going to make an austerity max solution very hard to impose. The NHS will require more, as will social care and schools. As for vital workers, we all know who they are now. The one thing we will not need to be too concerned about is immigration.
What's he done this time? Looked back, and can't see anything particularly odd.
He said coronavirus, or the response to it, is 'an irrational, destructive state-sponsored panic'.
That's bonkers.
Would “rational, destructive, state-sponsored emergency“ be more accurate. The action certainly has destructive consequences, it is definitely state sponsored and there are emergency measures, but under the unfortunate circumstances it is rational.
The measures are rationally designed to be destructive in order to slow the infection chain of the virus. It has to be state-sponsored action because, as we have seen, leaving it up to the market and millions of 'rational' decision-makers doesn't work. Most individuals cannot judge risk and when that happens you get market failure.
But to be honest I think we are spending too much time on Mr Hitchens. He doesn't merit it.
it will be interesting to see what happens today when people try to go to the pub and discover it is shut.
Saw it last night in Cramlington. Many people walking up to a locked door, trying to open it, then walking off in a huff. That door is probably a prime transmission vector...
He reminds me of the late John Mortimer, whose reaction to a ban on smoking in public was to take up smoking, even though he admitted he hated tobacco.
I see the similarity in their literary styles and general political outlook ....
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
I often think of old Tess and wonder what she would have been like in this chaos. One thing I sort of like about Bozza is that he just lets the experts make the decisions - I get the feeling that Prof Whitty and Sir Paddy tell him what to do each morning and he just ruffles his hair and says “okay then”.
And appoints great chancellors, say the people who like what the govt is doing but have to find a way not to credit Boris!
When Richi wasn’t giving money away, it was Johnson’s govt not handling it appropriately...
It’s Rishi - he’s going to be another Keir, people just can’t spell the bloke’s name correctly!
I am giving credit to Bozza, I like the fact that he delegates. I wasn’t intending to appear sarky!
No I didn’t think you were
Fair enough. I thought he was pretty good today, at the press conference. I hope they don’t do them on Saturdays and Sundays as they need a rest. The boffins seem to be on a rota (Prof W/Dr Jenny/Rishi/Sir Paddy) but Bozza does every day which is fucking exhausting I should think.
His answer as to whether he’d be seeing his mum on Sunday was good! I think his humorous manner actually plays well in the press conferences, leaving the experts to deliver the serious stuff.
The first part of his answer was good before the characteristic Boris twist where he said he did hope to see her -- against all government advice and against what he had himself just said.
Depends, seeing could be over skype these days.
And that is what is now being spun but it is not what Boris said.
You said he said he hoped to "see her"? That could be either in person or via video call, as is common these days.
And that is what is now being spun but is not what Boris said. As I said before.
What did he say then?
There is a video here, and no doubt elsewhere.
“My advice would be that people should really think very carefully - irrespective of whether they are going to visit their mothers - about any elderly person who may be in a vulnerable group.
"It doesn’t really matter if they are over 70, the issue is whether they are in one of the vulnerable groups.
“Think very carefully about the risk of transmission of the virus and follow the advice. Our advice is that elderly people, people with serious underlying health conditions and people in the later stages of pregnancy, you have to be careful about transmission of the virus. I’m sure people will handle that advice accordingly.”
“I’m in regular contact with all members of my family but I’ll be working very hard on Sunday, I can tell you that.
“I will certainly be sending her my very best wishes and hope to get to see her.”
The care-homes are now in full lockdown as far as relatives are concerned, which is entirely sensible. But I may have seen my father for the last time.
Hopefully, if they do get it it will not be too serious. One connection of mine was in bed feeling at death’s door one day, the next day she asked if going out jogging counted as self-isolating.
But be aware that there is also a second cold bug going around, which is highly unpleasant but not, from personal experience, lethal.
I mean, I know we've tried 35 years of not taxing rich people but it seems to have a few problems. I say we try taxing rich people again.
Rich people pay 45% of their income in tax at the highest level, they are not taxed nothing
Compared to 1945 to 1980 they are taxed not very much.
Ah yes and what fgreat times they were for happiness, contentment and general prosp.. oh wait a minute. no they weren't.
Boomers literally cannot stop telling us how much better it was in their day.
Unless they’re Yorkshiremen.
To be fair, comparing today to just a week ago pretty much everyone make that can claim. Do you remember when we had pubs, schools and food in shops? You was lucky.
Hopefully, if they do get it it will not be too serious. One connection of mine was in bed feeling at death’s door one day, the next day she asked if going out jogging counted as self-isolating.
But be aware that there is also a second cold bug going around, which is highly unpleasant but not, from personal experience, lethal.
Bad news for our hospitals, who will be getting lots of SeanT types pitching up with minor sniffles, and have to waste time sorting out the genuine cases. As that doctor says in his vlog downthread.
I mean, I know we've tried 35 years of not taxing rich people but it seems to have a few problems. I say we try taxing rich people again.
Rich people pay 45% of their income in tax at the highest level, they are not taxed nothing
Compared to 1945 to 1980 they are taxed not very much.
Ah yes and what fgreat times they were for happiness, contentment and general prosp.. oh wait a minute. no they weren't.
Boomers literally cannot stop telling us how much better it was in their day.
Well, I';m not a Boomer...... pre-war baby...... but as I said, I recall the 60's as good, as was the period around the turn of the century. Of course, good things were happening in my life at the time, and that always colours views.
Hopefully, if they do get it it will not be too serious. One connection of mine was in bed feeling at death’s door one day, the next day she asked if going out jogging counted as self-isolating.
But be aware that there is also a second cold bug going around, which is highly unpleasant but not, from personal experience, lethal.
Thanks. The main thought at the moment is about who we could have passed it on to.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Yep - tax is undoubtedly going up. And people will want to see a return on that.
My strong advice: do NOT watch the film Contagion until this is all over.
It was a scary enough film when this was all hypothetical.
Nonsense. It's a brilliant watch and nothing we haven't seen. Indeed, you might take great solace from it because the R0 and mortality rates are so much lower with coronavirus.
It's well worth watching. And I find it 1000x less scary than the real footage from Italian hospitals, for instance.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
That was my point. The post only referenced 'our government'. And to be even fairer the decisions governments have made did not lack the support of the people. We have failed. Consumption always seems to win out over thrift. That must change. We're a lot poorer than we think we are.
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Comments
Drink a toast with my deific blood,
Thankfulness for the fruit that banishes despair.
Nourished with blood and body,
grow into my likeness,
A temple to my glory, great
Becomes the mystery of our cult.
Hear me Death in your empire unconfined,
Extending to mortal tribes of every kind.
On thee the portion of our time depends,
Where your absence lengthens life,
Your presence life ends.
Orphism 🎸
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
It follows a pattern where Boris gives a long, serious, and probably rehearsed answer, then his tone changes as he tacks on whatever thought has just popped into his head. He often does it at PMQs, for instance. Boris was cued up by the question to give the official answer, which is to keep your distance, then right at the end contradicted what he himself had just said.
We spoke 2 days ago and his mood was so much more bleak tonight
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
I am the Knight
I
idolize,
Seek no other prize;
Independence recognize.
I uphold honor,
commitment and ardor,
through ordeals prove worthy,
and I yearn to obey.
I am the Saint.
I dine on partridge,
its heart imitation,
it’s blood in water
befits my fixation.
The Knight rides
in tarragon,
Hunts light to dark
in motion,
consecration
by depiction,
A notion mirror
of my mind.
I am your Valentine.
A queen imprisoned in a tower
with a web of words around her,
her award for loyal service
is ultimately surrender;
because love at once illicit,
human and transcendent,
passionate through discipline,
humiliating, exalting -
so bright but delicate
from a flame cherished into fire,
ends cradled in a furnace where
we acclaim a vanquished king.
I am the Knight.
I am the Saint.
I am your Valentine.
I yearn to obey.
Lord Felspar
https://twitter.com/braddonaldson/status/1241120166362009600?s=20
Of course they'd insist this is Leith, not Edinburgh; let's just plump for major conurbation on the Firth of Forth's southern shore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zf7jW2ck7AI
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51982495
Italy +5,986, USA +5,854 (and climbing).
US is likely to take the number 3 slot in total found cases tomorrow.
The good news is that the rest of us will soon find out what the real death rates are for CV-19. Will the Netherlands see 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.8%, 1.2% or 2%+.
My guess is that the policy doesn't survive reality. When you hear the sirens going all day and all night. And your friend's mother dies of CV-19, while your father-in-law is on a ventilator in a hallway at an overcrowded hospital. Well, you'll think the policy was bloody stupid.
But I also think the more severe this first wave, the easier the future will be. The next government will be lucky enough to have a significant minority of the population immune to the disease (even if only temporarily).
I suspect that 40% of the Dutch will get the disease before they slam the brakes on. The irony being, then, that they'll probably be past the peak at that point.
Unless you are self-employed, in which case the politik still has quite a way to go to get Real.
Sell.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/contagion-got-coronavirus-right-films-science-advisor/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/trying-not-panic-coronavirus-dont-rewatch-contagion/
I'd currently rate Boris' handling as positive. He looks knackered too which is good. He should do.
The big lesson is the lack of resilience in the system, whether it be just in time manufacturing supply chains or in running the NHS at 95% of capacity as normal.
I think we will see more manufacturing onshoring as people fix that problem (which will possibly increase costs - although someone I was speaking to yesterday pointed out that quality intermediate goods from China are about the same price as Western versions). That will result in a good number of well paid, secure jobs, but also higher costs for consumers.
On the NHS, thought, we need more hospitals (I believe there are 40 being built...) and more trained staff. However those are not huge costs in the overall scheme of things and, in many cases, are one time capital expenditure. The biggest elements of government spending remain pensions and welfare and I'm not sure I see the argument for fundamental changes as a result of COVID.
https://capx.co/europes-solidarity-crumbles-in-the-face-of-a-crisis/
North Korea fires two projectiles into sea
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51984344
I would have thought twice before doing that if I were the Fat Controller. If President Xi wants to earn some easy international cred to make up for this Coronavirus clusterfuck, sending in the PLA and finally destroying the Kim family would be an easy win.
Of course I was in my mid to late 20's, wife, young family and I was happy in my work.
And Good morning everyone!
Mr. JohnL, isn't the Anglican position consubstantiation?
I really liked Religious Studies at school, mostly due to our excellent teacher. His view of the Methodist ban on wine was akin to Jack Sparrow's adherence to the laws of piracy.
Lots of governments have failed, but that doesn’t change the fact that they have failed. We were warned about this epidemic before it happened. When it spread in China governments did nothing. When it was on our doorstep In Italy, governments did nothing. Now governments are managing crises and killing the economy to do it. That is not success. For now we must support the government in its efforts, but make no mistake there will have to be inquiries into how this catastrophe happened.
How is your father progressing, Mr C?
That's bonkers.
I think it has arrived in this family.
But to be honest I think we are spending too much time on Mr Hitchens. He doesn't merit it.
I see the similarity in their literary styles and general political outlook ....
But be aware that there is also a second cold bug going around, which is highly unpleasant but not, from personal experience, lethal.
I'm in the constituency of Mark Menzies.
It was a scary enough film when this was all hypothetical.
https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/20/media/trump-rant-at-nbc-news-peter-alexander/index.html
Trump viciously attacks NBC News reporter in extended rant after being asked for message to Americans worried about coronavirus
Stay strong. Sure you'll family will get through it fine.
Focus on nothing else but getting better.
It's well worth watching. And I find it 1000x less scary than the real footage from Italian hospitals, for instance.
Bit of a nutter.
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
https://us.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-response-must-adapt-frieden-analysis/index.html