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    isam said:

    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    https://twitter.com/bipolarrunner/status/1241300450768572417?s=21

    https://twitter.com/declamare/status/1241277424500957184?s=21

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
    Well, looking at Bergamo, the funeral directors and coffin makers cannot cope. There is a a massive increase in the overall death rate.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Scott_xP said:

    Someone recommended this as the definitive text on what is happening

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rules-Contagion-Outbreaks-Infectious-Diseases-ebook/dp/B07JLSHT7M/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1YX73EF1AJINJ&dchild=1&keywords=epidemics&qid=1584788568&sprefix=epidemics,aps,172&sr=8-2

    They were right.

    Interactions in schools and at home typically involve physical contact, and encounters that occur on a daily basis often last longer than an hour. Even so, the overall number of interactions can vary a lot between locations. Hong Kong residents typically have physical contact with around five other people each day; the UK is similar, but in Italy, the average is ten.[15]

    Kucharski, Adam. The Rules of Contagion (Wellcome Collection) . Profile. Kindle Edition.

    Yorkshire should be fine then. Nobody there gets beyond a slight nod and the surly uninterested enquiry of "'ow do...."'
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,343
    IanB2 said:

    It’s human nature. And Is why 75% of the “the world will never be the same” comments and articles we’ll all be reading this year will, once the pandemic has receded, turn out to be bunkum.

    Not sure but possibly right. All the same but a bit (or a lot) poorer.

    Unless we get another black swan while this one is still on. A San Francisco earthquake maybe.

    If Elon Musk is right that we are a simulation being played by higher beings, perhaps they have got bored and decided to spice the game up a little.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,659
    Alistair said:

    nichomar said:

    I just wonder if there are alternative strategies to locking down the whole country.

    You are not really locked down though are you.? You can go to B&Q buy a new bed, go to Primart, take a car ride in the country, have a house party etc etc you have a long way to go to true lockdown
    People are already losing their shit. And this clearly is just an interim stage before the actual lock-down kicks in. I'm not sure that a society as pig ignorant and self-centred as 2020 England will cope (the other less shit nations in the UK will be fine). Expect Peter Hitchens pieces in the Hate Mail telling people that Boris is a Fascist and that we should resist authoritarianism. Feral parents round here will still be drunk letting their feral kids out to create havoc, and that's before the Facebook rumors kick in that Other People have something You haven't got and the riots start.

    You ain't seen nothing yet...
    If you hate your own country so much why don't you go and live somewhere else?
    I wouldn't describe it as hate. More like pity. England used to be something. Look what we've reduced ourselves to. As for moving, plans were in progress, now delayed thanks to Coronavirus.
    Where were you moving to?
    Nothing fixed, but was looking at houses up near my brother in Aberdeenshire. Again, its not hate. But you can't deny that the level of stupid in England really has dialled up to 11. I hear commentators talk about British exceptionalism - its *English* exceptionalism. We're arrogant / stupid enough to think the rules don't apply to us as we're Better than everyone else. Morons voted for Brexit to stop freedom of movement then moan when their freedom of movement is stopped. Apparently the rules are only for foreigners...

    I'm not remotely saying Scotland is perfect or immune to our madness. But from what I can see its better. And I think a decent part of that is that they kind of have a mojo about what it is to be Scottish. That was the SNP project more than anything else. England could fix itself, but I think that it will need regionalism as a solution as "England" is at best an amorphous blob of different kingdoms glued together that don't entirely get on. The nice thing about Yorkshire as opposed to my native Lancashire is that there is a proper regional identity. Same in Cornwall. More of that.
    So Scottish nationalism is great but English nationalism is a complete no no?

    Right. Got it.
    I don't think nationalism of any flavour is great. I wouldn't vote for the SNP or Scottish independence if I had the opportunity to - I am a federalist. But people feel better and secure when they know who they are, and my point was about identity. Scotland has worked hard to push an identity. The English identity is what? Gammony drunks? Metropolitan liberals? The two extremes largely hate each other.

    England's basic problem is that it doesn't know what England or English is. We confuse England for Britain as if they are interchangeable. We don't even have a national anthem and our flag has become synonymous with racists and drunks. We propagandise people who aren't very bright with messages that the schools are against them and then wonder why educational attainment is so low.

    None of these are "nationalism". Brexit was a vote of the lost recognising they were lost wanting to forge a new identity of their own. I think my epiphany - having voted for a different kind of Brexit to what we are/were heading for - was that the Britain/England they have been told to want looks repulsive.
    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
    Yes, I'm sure William scoured the North of his unified nation for shits and giggles.
    You what?

    If you're referring to William the Conqueror (Norman French) then he brutully put down a rebellion against Norman rule in Anglo-Saxon after the conquest.

    That was terrible, and about 150 years after England became a unified polity.

    I'm not sure what your point is.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1241052609122885633

    Suspect these words will become a key quote for the historians.
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    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    https://twitter.com/bipolarrunner/status/1241300450768572417?s=21

    https://twitter.com/declamare/status/1241277424500957184?s=21

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
    Well, looking at Bergamo, the funeral directors and coffin makers cannot cope. There is a a massive increase in the overall death rate.
    Of course there is. It's one of the last gasp memes of those who have got this consistently and utterly wrong.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,659

    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.

    Surely the English have been running the show since well before the Act of Union? The UK Parliament has always been composed of 3/4 English seats and the rest of the country gets maybe up to 25%.

    So any wounds are likely self-inflicted...
    How do you explain the Gordon Brown adminstration then?

    Scottish MPs occupied several key offices of state and ministries.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    5000 new cases total 25000, 1326 fatalities in Spain
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,659
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    I just wonder if there are alternative strategies to locking down the whole country.

    You are not really locked down though are you.? You can go to B&Q buy a new bed, go to Primart, take a car ride in the country, have a house party etc etc you have a long way to go to true lockdown
    People are already losing their shit. And this clearly is just an interim stage before the actual lock-down kicks in. I'm not sure that a society as pig ignorant and self-centred as 2020 England will cope (the other less shit nations in the UK will be fine). Expect Peter Hitchens pieces in the Hate Mail telling people that Boris is a Fascist and that we should resist authoritarianism. Feral parents round here will still be drunk letting their feral kids out to create havoc, and that's before the Facebook rumors kick in that Other People have something You haven't got and the riots start.

    You ain't seen nothing yet...
    If you hate your own country so much why don't you go and live somewhere else?
    I wouldn't describe it as hate. More like pity. England used to be something. Look what we've reduced ourselves to. As for moving, plans were in progress, now delayed thanks to Coronavirus.
    Where were you moving to?
    Nothing fixed, but was looking at houses up near my brother in Aberdeenshire. Again, its not hate. But you can't deny that the level of stupid in England really has dialled up to 11. I hear commentators talk about British exceptionalism - its *English* exceptionalism. We're arrogant / stupid enough to think the rules don't apply to us as we're Better than everyone else. Morons voted for Brexit to stop freedom of movement then moan when their freedom of movement is stopped. Apparently the rules are only for foreigners...

    I'm not remotely saying Scotland is perfect or immune to our madness. But from what I can see its better. And I think a decent part of that is that they kind of have a mojo about what it is to be Scottish. That was the SNP project more than anything else. England could fix itself, but I think that it will need regionalism as a solution as "England" is at best an amorphous blob of different kingdoms glued together that don't entirely get on. The nice thing about Yorkshire as opposed to my native Lancashire is that there is a proper regional identity. Same in Cornwall. More of that.
    So Scottish nationalism is great but English nationalism is a complete no no?

    Right. Got it.
    I don't think nationalism of any flavour is great. I wouldn't vote for the SNP or Scottish independence if I had the opportunity to - I am a federalist. But people feel better and secure when they know who they are, and my point was about identity. Scotland has worked hard to push an identity. The English identity is what? Gammony drunks? Metropolitan liberals? The two extremes largely hate each other.

    England's basic problem is that it doesn't know what England or English is. We confuse England for Britain as if they are interchangeable. We don't even have a national anthem and our flag has become synonymous with racists and drunks. We propagandise people who aren't very bright with messages that the schools are against them and then wonder why educational attainment is so low.

    None of these are "nationalism". Brexit was a vote of the lost recognising they were lost wanting to forge a new identity of their own. I think my epiphany - having voted for a different kind of Brexit to what we are/were heading for - was that the Britain/England they have been told to want looks repulsive.
    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
    The first King of England was Aethelstan, 924-939. That would still put it behind France, which effectively goes back to the Frankish empire of Charlemagne and more definitively to Verdun in 840.
    I said one of the oldest. Not the oldest. But you're quibbling about 80-90 years in the dark ages.

    It doesn't refute England's claim to historic and longstanding nationhood.
    Oh dear goodness. The Dark Ages.

    That’s a phrase looooong out of use.

    Edward Gibbon‘s personal foibles masquerading as history were perhaps a more apt field for the phrase ‘the dark ages.’
    Right. You've changed the subject.

    So I'll take that as you agreeing with me on the point then.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    We'll take the French approach - ignore the shit we don't like.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Doethur, not sure I agree with the modern view that Dark Ages is an outdated term. Falling populations, political atomisation, declining trade, increasing war, sounds quite Dark Agey.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,094
    Yeah me too. What a stupid thing to do.
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    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Woken up with a pretty bad cough and a bit of a high temperature today. Also lines up that I went through an airport around a week ago.

    Think I've got the plague.

    Good luck and best wishes
    Yes, best wishes.

    Is it me are we seeing quite a few posters saying they probably have this now?
    We are indeed. Would it be appropriate to keep a little list: not for voyeuristic reasons but so we can keep one another in our thoughts, send good wishes and hear first hand about progress?

    By my reckoning we've had messages concerning themselves or immediate family from Charles, GideonWise and now Max PB
    Best of luck to the 3 of you and your families. Hopefully you'll be through the worst of it before the peak hits.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    Kamala Harris. Next POTUS. 250/1

    DYOR.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.

    Surely the English have been running the show since well before the Act of Union? The UK Parliament has always been composed of 3/4 English seats and the rest of the country gets maybe up to 25%.

    So any wounds are likely self-inflicted...
    How do you explain the Gordon Brown adminstration then?

    Scottish MPs occupied several key offices of state and ministries.

    That does not alter the fact that the bulk of MPs were English as was a large number of his cabinet.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    What are they going to do? Kick us out?
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.

    Surely the English have been running the show since well before the Act of Union? The UK Parliament has always been composed of 3/4 English seats and the rest of the country gets maybe up to 25%.

    So any wounds are likely self-inflicted...
    How do you explain the Gordon Brown adminstration then?

    Scottish MPs occupied several key offices of state and ministries.

    That does not alter the fact that the bulk of MPs were English as was a large number of his cabinet.
    We are all British - time for parochial nonsense to be put in the bin.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144

    What are they going to do? Kick us out?
    Fine us 100 billion Euros......
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    https://twitter.com/bipolarrunner/status/1241300450768572417?s=21

    https://twitter.com/declamare/status/1241277424500957184?s=21

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
    This question is unsawnser able until 2021. I think that waiting until then to get the data in before we act on it is unacceptable.

    Here is some data that we can say.
    The first Covid death in Italy was on 21st Feb. That's 29 days ago. SInce then there has been 4031 Covid deaths.

    I don't know how many "would have died anyway" but it does seem like a number much higher than flu deaths in a 4 week period.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m hearing that Deloitte have cancelled all graduate recruitment this year. If true, no doubt other firms will follow.

    This year’s university graduates are screwed.

    Not if they join Tesco or Sainsburys or M & S, the NHS, the police service, the armed forces, the civil service, Google, Apple, Vodaphone and other organisations little affected by this crisis or even seeing a growth in demand
    Working as temporary shop floor staff at Tesco or Sainsburys is really going to pay off that student loan. Good grief...
    Duh, Tesco and Sainsburys both have graduate management schemes, indeed I know a Cambridge maths graduate who works at Tesco head office
    We don’t know if their head office grad schemes will continue as normal. I’m guessing probably not. They almost certainly are not going to be vastly increasing their graduate intake are they?
    Given the increasing numbers of orders they are having to manage and the increasing revenues they are making they almost certainly will be increasing them actually
    How’s that going to work if most of their head office is working from home? How are they going to hold assessment centres? Group interviews?

    Are they anticipating a drop-off in revenue once the crisis is over and everyone has tons of food?

    I think the answer is likely not. Despite increased revenues, how many extra “graduate managers” do you think they need?
    You can hold interviews over the phone, Skype etc. This is the 21st century.

    We are also not yet at full lockdown either so you can hold face to face meetings then get people working from home with conference calls etc after if needed.
    Given supermarkets are making vast revenues and profits at the moment as people are staying in longer and need more food etc that will continue for some time to come and indeed even once the crisis is over peoppe will still need food.

    So yes the answer is they likely will and graduate recruitment by Tesco etc will be strong and resiliant for a long time to come, even if they need even more graduate managers now to manage the complex supply chain challenges they are facing etc
    What point are you trying to make here? That there might be maybe, an extra 5 graduate positions at Tesco or Sainsburys head office?
    There will be extra graduate positions at supermarkets yes and graduate recruitment at companies like Vodaphone and Apple or in the NHS will be unaffected either longer term, so your original statement that 'graduates are screwed' was misleading
    How many graduates do you think Apple takes in the UK?
    Once people have stopped hoarding, won't supermarket demand fall below 'normal'? Yesterday Aldi was full of food and relatively empty of people.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    I've just been faffing about in the garage and found a 3 - pack of 'nice' soap that Wor Lass received as a Christmas gift and was going to donate to a charity shop. Well sod that - it's in the bathroom now. I don't care that my hands will smell of rose blossom.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Woken up with a pretty bad cough and a bit of a high temperature today. Also lines up that I went through an airport around a week ago.

    Think I've got the plague.

    Good luck and best wishes
    Yes, best wishes.

    Is it me are we seeing quite a few posters saying they probably have this now?
    We are indeed. Would it be appropriate to keep a little list: not for voyeuristic reasons but so we can keep one another in our thoughts, send good wishes and hear first hand about progress?

    By my reckoning we've had messages concerning themselves or immediate family from Charles, GideonWise and now Max PB
    Best of luck to the 3 of you and your families. Hopefully you'll be through the worst of it before the peak hits.
    Absolutely. Best wishes to all posters and their loved ones. Virtual communities have never been so important, and while we might bicker, we are all facing this together.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited March 2020
    Friday before last I said that one of my mates had told me he went out and the pubs and restaurant were rammed. I decided to stay in, and didn’t bother meeting him for a pint as planned on the Sunday. He’s been in bed with the lurgi since Weds, and three of the others he was with have self isolated
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    edited March 2020
    Is this EU story actually true or fake news?

    Sounds like the Danish scheme was approved in 24 hrs despite also being against the rules. If this is just a journalist realising its against some rules that can be waived its fake news and pathetic journalism trying to sow division at a time like this.

    I dont have access to the Times so not sure if the EU are genuinely trying to stop the aid or someone is just quoting existing rules which are already being waived in the exceptional circumstances?
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    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,912
    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    In other news Owen Jones posting crap about the class war on Twitter. Can't be arsed to link.

    Allow me. It's good -

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/21/undervalued-heroes-coronavirus-crisis-cleaners-supermarket-workers

    Redux. Most essential jobs are low paid. Most highly paid jobs are not essential.

    A truth revealed (if one did not know it already) by coronavirus.
    The wisdom of my father "the more worthwhile a job is the less you get paid". This was not said out of Jealuosy as he had a good enough job at British Telecom Head Office.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    https://twitter.com/bipolarrunner/status/1241300450768572417?s=21

    https://twitter.com/declamare/status/1241277424500957184?s=21

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
    Well, looking at Bergamo, the funeral directors and coffin makers cannot cope. There is a a massive increase in the overall death rate.
    There is that.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
    How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
    Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.

    That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.

    Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
    Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
    How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
    I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aURU-mD8HxE

    5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
    Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
    In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
    "... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."

    If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests.
    I doubt it, unless they were actually eating someone.
    The church maintains that is exactly what you are doing. Now as an atheist, I personally believe that they are just much munching sub-standard bread and probably 2nd rate wine, but the message, to me, is one step from promoting cannibalism.
    Yes, but you aren't actually doing it, are you?
    The Church of England position on the eucharist, insofar as it has one, is that the wafer and wine represent the body and blood of Christ. It is a metaphor, if you like. The Roman Catholic doctrine, known as transubstantiation, is that the wafer and wine literally become the body and blood of Christ. That is the crucial point.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
    The phrase for Protestants (and Anglicans get to be both Protestants and Catholics, naturally :-) ) is 'in remembrance'. So I would go with memorial not metaphor, that is still a means of grace.
    Nah, Anglicans are definitely members of the "universal Catholic church". Not protesting at all.
    The CofE is a classic fudge.

    I wonder if Theresa May would have got on with Elizabeth 1st.
    Absolutely not. Bess was canny and decisive, but ultimately a risk taker where appropriate.

    May is more like James I.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Get well soon @MaxPB
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,177
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....
    I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.
    Oh, I am sure that it has. What is the effect of this pandemic if not the obliteration of order in our world? It is like a thorough shuffle of a sorted pack of cards. Or like a wave washing over a sandcastle leaving a disarray of grains of sand. As people have said, tomorrow's world will not be the status quo ante. Much energy (enthalpy) will be spent to restore the myriad of damaged structures (human, social and commercial) to a semblance of the earlier order. Increasing entropy is an irresistible force of nature, just appearing in the guise of a virus epidemic.
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    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I’m hearing that Deloitte have cancelled all graduate recruitment this year. If true, no doubt other firms will follow.

    This year’s university graduates are screwed.

    Not if they join Tesco or Sainsburys or M & S, the NHS, the police service, the armed forces, the civil service, Google, Apple, Vodaphone and other organisations little affected by this crisis or even seeing a growth in demand
    Working as temporary shop floor staff at Tesco or Sainsburys is really going to pay off that student loan. Good grief...
    Duh, Tesco and Sainsburys both have graduate management schemes, indeed I know a Cambridge maths graduate who works at Tesco head office
    We don’t know if their head office grad schemes will continue as normal. I’m guessing probably not. They almost certainly are not going to be vastly increasing their graduate intake are they?
    Given the increasing numbers of orders they are having to manage and the increasing revenues they are making they almost certainly will be increasing them actually
    How’s that going to work if most of their head office is working from home? How are they going to hold assessment centres? Group interviews?

    Are they anticipating a drop-off in revenue once the crisis is over and everyone has tons of food?

    I think the answer is likely not. Despite increased revenues, how many extra “graduate managers” do you think they need?
    You can hold interviews over the phone, Skype etc. This is the 21st century.

    We are also not yet at full lockdown either so you can hold face to face meetings then get people working from home with conference calls etc after if needed.
    Given supermarkets are making vast revenues and profits at the moment as people are staying in longer and need more food etc that will continue for some time to come and indeed even once the crisis is over peoppe will still need food.

    So yes the answer is they likely will and graduate recruitment by Tesco etc will be strong and resiliant for a long time to come, even if they need even more graduate managers now to manage the complex supply chain challenges they are facing etc
    What point are you trying to make here? That there might be maybe, an extra 5 graduate positions at Tesco or Sainsburys head office?
    There will be extra graduate positions at supermarkets yes and graduate recruitment at companies like Vodaphone and Apple or in the NHS will be unaffected either longer term, so your original statement that 'graduates are screwed' was misleading
    How many graduates do you think Apple takes in the UK?
    Once people have stopped hoarding, won't supermarket demand fall below 'normal'? Yesterday Aldi was full of food and relatively empty of people.
    25% of food/calories comes from restaurant and pub sector so most of those need replacing via the supermarket for the duration of the crisis. So turnover will be above normal throughout.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,269

    Interesting thought that if this is indeed a War comparable to WWII, Peter Hitchens could be arrested, locked up and even hanged for sedition.

    I hope that thought brings some comfort.

    More entertainingly, also the father of the PM.
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    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Yeah me too. What a stupid thing to do.
    Have they done, or could they ? all I see are reports of Brussels relaxing most financial restrictions.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715

    Scott_xP said:

    Someone recommended this as the definitive text on what is happening

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Rules-Contagion-Outbreaks-Infectious-Diseases-ebook/dp/B07JLSHT7M/ref=sr_1_2?crid=1YX73EF1AJINJ&dchild=1&keywords=epidemics&qid=1584788568&sprefix=epidemics,aps,172&sr=8-2

    They were right.

    Interactions in schools and at home typically involve physical contact, and encounters that occur on a daily basis often last longer than an hour. Even so, the overall number of interactions can vary a lot between locations. Hong Kong residents typically have physical contact with around five other people each day; the UK is similar, but in Italy, the average is ten.[15]

    Kucharski, Adam. The Rules of Contagion (Wellcome Collection) . Profile. Kindle Edition.

    Yorkshire should be fine then. Nobody there gets beyond a slight nod and the surly uninterested enquiry of "'ow do...."'
    And self-isolate by going to the foot of our stairs.
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981

    NEW THREAD

    Just in case no one mentioned it...
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,269
    TGOHF666 said:

    Do you think the root cause could be a form of British nationalism that denies English nationhood? Before the recent fetishisation of "the UK", we knew very well what England was.

    Surely the English have been running the show since well before the Act of Union? The UK Parliament has always been composed of 3/4 English seats and the rest of the country gets maybe up to 25%.

    So any wounds are likely self-inflicted...
    How do you explain the Gordon Brown adminstration then?

    Scottish MPs occupied several key offices of state and ministries.

    That does not alter the fact that the bulk of MPs were English as was a large number of his cabinet.
    We are all British - time for parochial nonsense to be put in the bin.
    I sense this 'me part of outward looking unitary state, you parochial' comes from a very similar place as 'me patriot, you nationalist'.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    Gardening Question for @Cyclefree

    How do I prune Forsythia without a) Stopping next year's flowers, b) Prevent it going too leggy? How do I deal with those huge shoots? Am I going to have to lose my flowers for a year?

    I have one outside my conservatory to light up the corner, and provide a block next to next door. I want it to be slightly higher than the 1.8m fence.

    (Forsythia - early 'splash of colour' bush that gets yellow flowers directly on new wood in Feb / Mar. )

    Cheers

    Matt on your twitter question on the cost of care, there are very different rates depending on the ancillary facilities and the mix between private and public paying. Basically private can be a heck of lot more expensive (up to £3000 per week) but you get much larger facilities, more shared space, single rooms with en-suite wet rooms, etc.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    I just wonder if there are alternative strategies to locking down the whole country.

    You are not really locked down though are you.? You can go to B&Q buy a new bed, go to Primart, take a car ride in the country, have a house party etc etc you have a long way to go to true lockdown
    People are already losing their shit. And this clearly is just an interim stage before the actual lock-down kicks in. I'm not sure that a society as pig ignorant and self-centred as 2020 England will cope (the other less shit nations in the UK will be fine). Expect Peter Hitchens pieces in the Hate Mail telling people that Boris is a Fascist and that we should resist authoritarianism. Feral parents round here will still be drunk letting their feral kids out to create havoc, and that's before the Facebook rumors kick in that Other People have something You haven't got and the riots start.

    You ain't seen nothing yet...
    If you hate your own country so much why don't you go and live somewhere else?
    I wouldn't describe it as hate. More like pity. England used to be something. Look what we've reduced ourselves to. As for moving, plans were in progress, now delayed thanks to Coronavirus.
    Where were you moving to?
    Nothing fixed, but was looking at houses up near my brother in Aberdeenshire. Again, its not hate. But you can't deny that the level of stupid in England really has dialled up to 11. I hear commentators talk about British exceptionalism - its *English* exceptionalism. We're arrogant / stupid enough to think the rules don't apply to us as we're Better than everyone else. Morons voted for Brexit to stop freedom of movement then moan when their freedom of movement is stopped. Apparently the rules are only for foreigners...

    I'm not remotely saying Scotland is perfect or immune to our madness. But from what I can see its better. And I think a decent part of that is that they kind of have a mojo about what it is to be Scottish. That was the SNP project more than anything else. England could fix itself, but I think that it will need regionalism as a solution as "England" is at best an amorphous blob of different kingdoms glued together that don't entirely get on. The nice thing about Yorkshire as opposed to my native Lancashire is that there is a proper regional identity. Same in Cornwall. More of that.
    So Scottish nationalism is great but English nationalism is a complete no no?

    Right. Got it.
    I don't think nationalism of any flavour is great. I wouldn't vote for the SNP or Scottish independence if I had the opportunity to - I am a federalist. But people feel better and secure when they know who they are, and my point was about identity. Scotland has worked hard to push an identity. The English identity is what? Gammony drunks? Metropolitan liberals? The two extremes largely hate each other.

    England's basic problem is that it doesn't know what England or English is. We confuse England for Britain as if they are interchangeable. We don't even have a national anthem and our flag has become synonymous with racists and drunks. We propagandise people who aren't very bright with messages that the schools are against them and then wonder why educational attainment is so low.

    None of these are "nationalism". Brexit was a vote of the lost recognising they were lost wanting to forge a new identity of their own. I think my epiphany - having voted for a different kind of Brexit to what we are/were heading for - was that the Britain/England they have been told to want looks repulsive.
    England is an ancient nation of well over 1,000 years in age. It's one of the oldest polities in Europe.

    I think your views on Englishness are getting bound up in your hyperemotionally charged politics and combining with some kneejerk snobbery as well.
    The first King of England was Aethelstan, 924-939. That would still put it behind France, which effectively goes back to the Frankish empire of Charlemagne and more definitively to Verdun in 840.
    Charlemagne's empire was not France - it was a collection of personal holdings. Part of that collection (Charles the Bald's inheritance?) developed into France at some point in the future.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,141

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Someone trying to answer the question I keep asking. How many would have died anyway? Apparently the reason Germany’s death rate is so low is they only treat it as death by Coronavirus if they didn’t already have flu or pneumonia etc, and almost all of Italian deaths were pretty gravely ill

    https://twitter.com/bipolarrunner/status/1241300450768572417?s=21

    https://twitter.com/declamare/status/1241277424500957184?s=21

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says

    Ah. That might explain it.

    If that's true then that does raise some interesting questions about strategy.
    Yes, I think there’s a big chance most of the people who have died would have died of something else anyway. I’d really like to see the number of deaths by flu and pneumonia this year compared with others. Does 2020 Flu+pneumonia+corona = flu+pneumonia in other years?
    Well, looking at Bergamo, the funeral directors and coffin makers cannot cope. There is a a massive increase in the overall death rate.
    Corona is bringing forward next year's flu deaths.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2020

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    nichomar said:



    You are not really locked down though are you.? You can go to B&Q buy a new bed, go to Primart, take a car ride in the country, have a house party etc etc you have a long way to go to true lockdown

    People are already losing their shit. And this clearly is just an interim stage before the actual lock-down kicks in. I'm not sure that a society as pig ignorant and self-centred as 2020 England will cope (the other less shit nations in the UK will be fine). Expect Peter Hitchens pieces in the Hate Mail telling people that Boris is a Fascist and that we should resist authoritarianism. Feral parents round here will still be drunk letting their feral kids out to create havoc, and that's before the Facebook rumors kick in that Other People have something You haven't got and the riots start.

    You ain't seen nothing yet...
    If you hate your own country so much why don't you go and live somewhere else?
    I wouldn't describe it as hate. More like pity. England used to be something. Look what we've reduced ourselves to. As for moving, plans were in progress, now delayed thanks to Coronavirus.
    Where were you moving to?
    Nothing fixed, but was looking at houses up near my brother in Aberdeenshire. Again, its not hate. But you can't deny that the level of stupid in England really has dialled up to 11. I hear commentators talk about British exceptionalism - its *English* exceptionalism. We're arrogant / stupid enough to think the rules don't apply to us as we're Better than everyone else. Morons voted for Brexit to stop freedom of movement then moan when their freedom of movement is stopped. Apparently the rules are only for foreigners...

    I'm not remotely saying Scotland is perfect or immune to our madness. But from what I can see its better. And I think a decent part of that is that they kind of have a mojo about what it is to be Scottish. That was the SNP project more than anything else. England could fix itself, but I think that it will need regionalism as a solution as "England" is at best an amorphous blob of different kingdoms glued together that don't entirely get on. The nice thing about Yorkshire as opposed to my native Lancashire is that there is a proper regional identity. Same in Cornwall. More of that.
    Every country on Earth beyond micro states, including Scotland, is an agglomeration of countries that no longer exist. And if you want regionalism, the way the Northern Italians talk about those in the South would make even the most jingoistic southerner here blush.
    Have a look at Norman Davies' "The Forgotten Kingdoms of Europe". And a look at a map of Central Europe pre-1870.
    That was one of the more interesting books I've read in the last few years
    Thanks Charles and @OldKingCole for the recommendation, I think I’ll check it out.
    I always felt sorry for this guy - who I had never heard of - but was absolutely screwed by everyone.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Edward,_Duke_of_Saxe-Coburg_and_Gotha

    https://www.worldofbooks.com/en-gb/books/norman-davies/vanished-kingdoms/GOR003932072?keyword=&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIs8_nwMGr6AIVhLTtCh1kKwp6EAQYAiABEgJ0vPD_BwE
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Is this EU story actually true or fake news?

    Sounds like the Danish scheme was approved in 24 hrs despite also being against the rules. If this is just a journalist realising its against some rules that can be waived its fake news and pathetic journalism trying to sow division at a time like this.

    I dont have access to the Times so not sure if the EU are genuinely trying to stop the aid or someone is just quoting existing rules which are already being waived in the exceptional circumstances?

    That was my reaction

    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1241300606326898688
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I mean, I know we've tried 35 years of not taxing rich people but it seems to have a few problems. I say we try taxing rich people again.

    Rich people pay 45% of their income in tax at the highest level, they are not taxed nothing
    Compared to 1945 to 1980 they are taxed not very much.
    Ah yes and what fgreat times they were for happiness, contentment and general prosp.. oh wait a minute. no they weren't.
    They were good times in terms of rising living standards. Harold Macmillan told us 'we have never had it so good!'
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,427
    Tell me this idiot is going to be consigned to history in November and ideally locked up

    https://twitter.com/axios/status/1241043220710260737
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,822
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    DougSeal said:

    nichomar said:



    You are not really locked down though are you.? You can go to B&Q buy a new bed, go to Primart, take a car ride in the country, have a house party etc etc you have a long way to go to true lockdown

    People are already losing their shit. And this clearly is just an interim stage before the actual lock-down kicks in. I'm not sure that a society as pig ignorant and self-centred as 2020 England will cope (the other less shit nations in the UK will be fine). Expect Peter Hitchens pieces in the Hate Mail telling people that Boris is a Fascist and that we should resist authoritarianism. Feral parents round here will still be drunk letting their feral kids out to create havoc, and that's before the Facebook rumors kick in that Other People have something You haven't got and the riots start.

    You ain't seen nothing yet...
    If you hate your own country so much why don't you go and live somewhere else?
    I wouldn't describe it as hate. More like pity. England used to be something. Look what we've reduced ourselves to. As for moving, plans were in progress, now delayed thanks to Coronavirus.
    Where were you moving to?
    Nothing fixed, but was looking at houses up near my brother in Aberdeenshire. Again, its not hate. But you can't deny that the level of stupid in England really has dialled up to 11. I hear commentators talk about British exceptionalism - its *English* exceptionalism. We're arrogant / stupid enough to think the rules don't apply to us as we're Better than everyone else. Morons voted for Brexit to stop freedom of movement then moan when their freedom of movement is stopped. Apparently the rules are only for foreigners...

    I'm not remotely saying Scotland is perfect or immune to our madness. But from what I can see its better. And I think a decent part of that is that they kind of have a mojo about what it is to be Scottish. That was the SNP project more than anything else. England could fix itself, but I think that it will need regionalism as a solution as "England" is at best an amorphous blob of different kingdoms glued together that don't entirely get on. The nice thing about Yorkshire as opposed to my native Lancashire is that there is a proper regional identity. Same in Cornwall. More of that.
    Every country on Earth beyond micro states, including Scotland, is an agglomeration of countries that no longer exist. And if you want regionalism, the way the Northern Italians talk about those in the South would make even the most jingoistic southerner here blush.
    Have a look at Norman Davies' "The Forgotten Kingdoms of Europe". And a look at a map of Central Europe pre-1870.
    That was one of the more interesting books I've read in the last few years
    Thanks Charles and @OldKingCole for the recommendation, I think I’ll check it out.
    I always felt sorry for this guy - who I had never heard of - but was absolutely screwed by everyone.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Edward,_Duke_of_Saxe-Coburg_and_Gotha

    https://www.worldofbooks.com/en-gb/books/norman-davies/vanished-kingdoms/GOR003932072?keyword=&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIs8_nwMGr6AIVhLTtCh1kKwp6EAQYAiABEgJ0vPD_BwE
    Sounds rather a shit on his own account, though.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Doethur, not sure I agree with the modern view that Dark Ages is an outdated term. Falling populations, political atomisation, declining trade, increasing war, sounds quite Dark Agey.

    sounds pretty New Labour to me...
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TGOHF666 said:
    Very disturbing article.

    Cabinet member playing politics. Johnson got it wrong. Cummings is too close to Vallance and just ignoring other scientists. Rishi was too little too late.

    Whoever the fuck that Cabinet Minister is they should be sacked
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,563
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    MattW said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
    How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
    Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.

    That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.

    Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
    Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
    How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
    I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aURU-mD8HxE

    5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
    Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
    In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
    "... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."

    If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests.
    I doubt it, unless they were actually eating someone.
    The church maintains that is exactly what you are doing. Now as an atheist, I personally believe that they are just much munching sub-standard bread and probably 2nd rate wine, but the message, to me, is one step from promoting cannibalism.
    Yes, but you aren't actually doing it, are you?
    The Church of England position on the eucharist, insofar as it has one, is that the wafer and wine represent the body and blood of Christ. It is a metaphor, if you like. The Roman Catholic doctrine, known as transubstantiation, is that the wafer and wine literally become the body and blood of Christ. That is the crucial point.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
    The phrase for Protestants (and Anglicans get to be both Protestants and Catholics, naturally :-) ) is 'in remembrance'. So I would go with memorial not metaphor, that is still a means of grace.
    Nah, Anglicans are definitely members of the "universal Catholic church". Not protesting at all.
    The CofE is a classic fudge.

    I wonder if Theresa May would have got on with Elizabeth 1st.
    Absolutely not. Bess was canny and decisive, but ultimately a risk taker where appropriate.

    May is more like James I.
    Bisexual and prone not to wash?
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,369
    Wuite so. Tell the EU to go play with a motorway.
This discussion has been closed.