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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking on the bright side: another decade of austerity. At be

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking on the bright side: another decade of austerity. At best

This is Year Zero. We are at the cusp of the Before and the After. Covid-19, and the policy responses to it, are changing the world in a way that will affect it for decades and to put it bluntly, it doesn’t look good.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,676
    Top piece David, oh and first.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    We are about to find out if modern monetary theory is just a theory or actually a working model..

    I suspect it all depends on how quickly China ramps up production again
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked at the look being sported by the gentleman in the Brew Dog,

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8136757/Drinkers-enjoy-final-pint-start-panic-buying-alcohol-UK-WIDE-pub-lockdown.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Thanks for the header, David. :)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    FPT:
    RobD said:

    SandyRentool said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    As a long time work from homer, I can't say that I always get dressed for work.

    One advantage of working from home is that when you need to pass wind you can just let rip.
    Just make sure you are muted.
    The trick is: fart then immediately ask 'who just farted?'
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,744
    Jonathan said:

    Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.

    If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    The front line...I have just spoken to my sister.....

    She and her husband are teachers in London and both volunteering to keep their schools open for key worker's children (many in health)
    She has two doctors at home- her son and his girlfriend- both are in London

    Her other son has returned after 7 days isolation to a respiratory ward in the south.......

    All of them are going to be heavily exposed to the virus....these are the kind of sacrifices some of our public sector workers are now going to make.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    david_herdson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.

    If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?
    You can’t spend tomorrows money today. We don’t have a time machine. If we spend it today, it is today’s money. Meanwhile we don’t have enough critical care beds.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Great header David, thanks.

    One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".

    I think the fundamental shift (which might have been coming anyway) is going to be away from the small-statism of the last 40 years.

    Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,676
    https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1241131763591766017
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Benpointer said:

    Great header David, thanks.

    One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".


    Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.

    Yes it's not exactly austerity is it?!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Sad that a few weeks ago it seemed we would be spending hundreds of billions on much needed investment in the country, but now we'll be spending it just to keep the economy afloat for a year.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Jonathan said:

    Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.

    Yes - same point I was trying to make - you make it much more succinctly!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited March 2020
    Artist said:

    Sad that a few weeks ago it seemed we would be spending hundreds of billions on much needed investment in the country, but now we'll be spending it just to keep the economy afloat for a year.

    We'll do both imo. The measures announced today will help ensure the economy bounces back but the spending (and tax) levels will remain higher going forward.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    david_herdson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.

    If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?
    We should have made different decisions with yesterdays money.......

    Now we are relying on the NHS and key parts of the public sector to keep us all safe......and you know what...they are going to go that extra mile and put themselves on the line for us.... and after this horror has come to pass..they will deserve whatever comes to them
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    tyson said:

    The front line...I have just spoken to my sister.....

    She and her husband are teachers in London and both volunteering to keep their schools open for key worker's children (many in health)
    She has two doctors at home- her son and his girlfriend- both are in London

    Her other son has returned after 7 days isolation to a respiratory ward in the south.......

    All of them are going to be heavily exposed to the virus....these are the kind of sacrifices some of our public sector workers are now going to make.....

    All credit to them. They deserve our utmost respect.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Looks like tonight was the last Hurrah for many. I hope they enjoyed it, particularly those down in London...
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?

    The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.

    If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll

    Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    eek said:

    We are about to find out if modern monetary theory is just a theory or actually a working model..

    I suspect it all depends on how quickly China ramps up production again

    It's weird how this happens, which gives us the environment to try new radical things, at exactly this time when there's people in place who would try new radical things, but need the chaos to exist to do it in.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Totally away from the C19 have just spent the evening watching the first three parts of Netflix's new series "The English Game". Great to have something about football and a part of the world NE Lancs that barely gets any attention.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Putting on the pedant hat, we can't have an indebted world. The world has to be in balance between debtors and creditors.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    edited March 2020
    Benpointer said:

    tyson said:

    The front line...I have just spoken to my sister.....

    She and her husband are teachers in London and both volunteering to keep their schools open for key worker's children (many in health)
    She has two doctors at home- her son and his girlfriend- both are in London

    Her other son has returned after 7 days isolation to a respiratory ward in the south.......

    All of them are going to be heavily exposed to the virus....these are the kind of sacrifices some of our public sector workers are now going to make.....

    All credit to them. They deserve our utmost respect.
    My elder sister is absolutely shit scared....she should have been retiring this year. Young Medics that are heavily exposed to the virus are at risk- she has three in the family- two sons and a daughter in law.
    My sister and her husband are volunteering to teach in the essential skills schools in London- knowing they'll be exposed to the virus, but to show solidarity with the NHS....

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/LauraLitvan/status/1241131763591766017

    There's a lot of it about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Mysticrose said:

    Benpointer said:

    Great header David, thanks.

    One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".


    Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.

    Yes it's not exactly austerity is it?!
    It is if overall GDP falls significantly.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    asjohnstone said:

    I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?

    The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.

    If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll

    Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.

    A lot of young NHS staff who are exposed to a huge amount of this virus treating them will also die.....can I just too tell you quite kindly to go fuck yourself....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    These pictures, are they actual photographs of what it looks like?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    egg said:

    These pictures, are they actual photographs of what it looks like?

    Looks like an artist's impression
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited March 2020
    TGOHF666 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
    Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Putting on the pedant hat, we can't have an indebted world. The world has to be in balance between debtors and creditors.
    You’re right. My view was excessively western centric. We will be further indebted and the east shall rise.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    I want to thank Big_G_NorthWales for his kind words on the previous thread. I am not JM1, and I have no idea who he is. But I haven't been banned.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
    Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
    I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    James_M said:

    I want to thank Big_G_NorthWales for his kind words on the previous thread. I am not JM1, and I have no idea who he is. But I haven't been banned.

    I am so pleased about that and of course your kindness
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
    Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
    I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.
    Probably a bit more than after this shit show plays out.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
    Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
    I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.
    I wonder how much government you’d end up with.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?

    I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....

    I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...

    My sister...coughing.....

    Her son...fever and coughing......
    I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.
    Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expected
    I don't think this credible. If it had spread so widely already, the death toll would also be spread over more areas.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
    Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
    I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.
    Probably a bit more than after this shit show plays out.
    Seems unlikely. Wasting money on tens of thousands of ICU beds to be used in the event of a once-in-a-century pandemic seems like a poor allocation of resources, but that is exactly what you are proposing.
  • James_MJames_M Posts: 103
    I used Zoom tonight for a virtual pub night. It worked suprisingly well. We seemed to be allowed to go beyond the 40 minutes default, which was a positive.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    asjohnstone said:

    I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?

    The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.

    If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll

    Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.

    I have trouble believing anyone could write such a comment piece
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited March 2020
    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.

    It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.

    Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
    Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
    I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.
    Probably a bit more than after this shit show plays out.
    Seems unlikely. Wasting money on tens of thousands of ICU beds to be used in the event of a once-in-a-century pandemic seems like a poor allocation of resources, but that is exactly what you are proposing.
    I don’t know about you, but looking around I’m going out on a limb and say that things are not working so well.

    Time to try something different.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604
    david_herdson said:

    Jonathan said:

    Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.

    If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?
    You just print more. That's how money works if you have a printing press.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.
    I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    asjohnstone said:

    I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?

    The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.

    If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll

    Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.

    I have trouble believing anyone could write such a comment piece
    I had a double take and looked at his profile picture...and it kind of explained it
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.
    I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.
    Sure, the pie needs to be big enough. But making it bigger just so that the person with 2 slices gets 3 instead is pointless.

    Anyway, enough pies for one evening.

    Night all.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    James_M said:

    I want to thank Big_G_NorthWales for his kind words on the previous thread. I am not JM1, and I have no idea who he is. But I haven't been banned.

    So you think...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,862
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....
    I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    "They care about the economy, we just happen to be part of it.

    OK, cynicism aside, most of the UK are fairly happy with this. I've never voted Conservative and I probably never will, but I think they do genuinely care and they are genuinely trying to do their best. Boris is a fucking weapons-grade twat but at least he knows the limits of his knowledge and is leaning on the scientists and the economists.

    He fancies himself a modern-day Churchill. He's not. He's a foppish dilettante who views this PM lark as a joke. I have almost zero faith in him. But I have faith in the people he has nominated to handle this crisis, and I'm glad that he seems to be letting them make the crucial decisions."

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Businesses are likely to be more cautious for quite a few years.
    International trade will take a significant hit for quite a few years.
    Ditto travel.
    Ditto overseas students studying in the UK.
    Will we see more vertical businesses ? Less just in time manufacturing ? Will resilience be prized over efficiency ?

    Will expectation of government increase ?

    OTOH, there is going to be a massive shift in the world’s energy supply, with power ending up significantly cheaper in the medium term. The destruction wreaked on the corporate world will possibly accelerate technological change.

    In any event, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....
    I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.
    One of those long grass things...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    Charlie Austin, footballer, claims he has it and that he thinks it got it from Cheltenham. Hopefully it isn't revealed that in fact that was a massive transmission vector for the spread.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.
    Electric cars will last a lot longer, have far fewer moving bits, and are starting to be designed to be recycled.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.
    It wasn’t. It was a business as usual signal at a time we needed a temporary halt on socialising.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.
    It was about as clever as going to see the Stereophonics in Cardiff on Sunday in an indoor arena.......
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.
    I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.
    Sure, the pie needs to be big enough. But making it bigger just so that the person with 2 slices gets 3 instead is pointless.

    Anyway, enough pies for one evening.

    Night all.
    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    SandyRentool said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.
    I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.
    Sure, the pie needs to be big enough. But making it bigger just so that the person with 2 slices gets 3 instead is pointless.

    Anyway, enough pies for one evening.

    Night all.
    Have I missed pie?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Today was their best day of the crisis.
    Let’s hope they have more.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Most of the positive comments are from Americans
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    not_on_fire said:

    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Most of the positive comments are from Americans
    You've made a tally?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?

    I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....

    I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...

    My sister...coughing.....

    Her son...fever and coughing......
    I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.
    Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expected
    Four people off with symptoms from under a hundred where I work.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    I see Bernie is still going hard on the campaign trail, albeit virtually. Surely he doesn't think he can still win?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    not_on_fire said:

    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Most of the positive comments are from Americans
    Believe me, Reddit does not like the Tories (apart from maybe /r/The_Donald). It's the most positive post I've seen, and it's right on the front page.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Today was their best day of the crisis.
    Let’s hope they have more.
    I hope so, but they’re running out of headlines they can control directly. There are only so many things they can do.

    Soon events will take over. I sincerely hope they will be lucky.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Nigelb said:

    Businesses are likely to be more cautious for quite a few years.
    International trade will take a significant hit for quite a few years.
    Ditto travel.
    Ditto overseas students studying in the UK.
    Will we see more vertical businesses ? Less just in time manufacturing ? Will resilience be prized over efficiency ?

    Will expectation of government increase ?

    OTOH, there is going to be a massive shift in the world’s energy supply, with power ending up significantly cheaper in the medium term. The destruction wreaked on the corporate world will possibly accelerate technological change.

    In any event, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

    If the bailout works, then people will resume the same behaviours.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.
    Electric cars will last a lot longer, have far fewer moving bits, and are starting to be designed to be recycled.
    That won't stop people who can afford new ones buying new ones, so if their cast offs last longer that just means more of them, more roads, more gridlock. You can't keep putting more things into limited space indefinitely.

    And batteries use rare resources and are very tricky to dispose of.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?

    I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....

    I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...

    My sister...coughing.....

    Her son...fever and coughing......
    I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.
    Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expected
    If it was millions, which I presume it is in Italy, our system would have crashed by now with the shear number of people requiring hospital treatment. It would have to be the iceberg of all icebergs and the UK to have somehow got ridiculously lucky with the majority of young people getting and not passed it on to oldies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Its the end of Osbrowne economics.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.
    It was about as clever as going to see the Stereophonics in Cardiff on Sunday in an indoor arena.......
    Is there a story behind that statement ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds. Now that might be their testing is picking up lots of people with few symptoms and thus the spread of the disease is nothing like France, Spain or Italy.

    It should be noted they are now up to 50 deaths and it has been revealed unlike the UK is somebody dies before being tested of something else e.g. heart attack, they don't then go and test to see if they had it.

    We don't actually know how many tests they are doing per day.
  • ManchesterKurtManchesterKurt Posts: 921
    another_richard said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.
    It was about as clever as going to see the Stereophonics in Cardiff on Sunday in an indoor arena.......
    Is there a story behind that statement ?
    Pictures of it are all around China according to my friend out there.

    They think we are bonkers.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Today was their best day of the crisis.
    Let’s hope they have more.
    I hope so, but they’re running out of headlines they can control directly. There are only so many things they can do.

    Soon events will take over. I sincerely hope they will be lucky.
    But....it made me feel that they will do whatever it takes to get Covid 19 done....

    mainly because if they don't and Covid 19 doesn't get done...then what?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    Nigelb said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.
    Electric cars will last a lot longer, have far fewer moving bits, and are starting to be designed to be recycled.
    I'm involved in a business that takes old Nissan Leaf batteries and uses them to create something like Tesla PowerWalls.
    Fabulous recycling. Potentially very profitable too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
    How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.

    Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.
    How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.
    It wasn’t. It was a business as usual signal at a time we needed a temporary halt on socialising.
    Have we seen any evidence of people from Britain or Ireland catching Covid-19 at Cheltenham? Will we see more in a week or so? If so then perhaps it was a poor decision but if not then we shall have learned something about the transmission of this virus.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Jonathan said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.

    https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/

    Today was their best day of the crisis.
    Let’s hope they have more.
    I hope so, but they’re running out of headlines they can control directly. There are only so many things they can do.

    Soon events will take over. I sincerely hope they will be lucky.
    They need to do something for the self-employed. That should be Monday’s package (even the government are entitled to a weekend).

    80% of last year’s tax return pro rata until the quarantine is lifted?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.

    But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.

    I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.

    Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?
    Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.
    Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....
    I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Question
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?

    I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....

    I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...

    My sister...coughing.....

    Her son...fever and coughing......
    I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.
    Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expected
    If it was millions, which I presume it is in Italy, our system would have crashed by now with the shear number of people requiring hospital treatment. It would have to be the iceberg of all icebergs and the UK to have somehow got ridiculously lucky with the majority of young people getting and not passed it on to oldies.
    Italy could be ten millionn internet, and we could be 1-1.5 million.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Jonathan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
    How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
    Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.

    That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy. And we are unfortunately now starting to see the death rate rise even in there.

    Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns at a time wasn't known it had got to Europe.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    Jonathan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
    How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
    The young interact with the young, the old with the old.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    It seems they're detecting lots of the asymptomatic cases.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think

    “I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Why was JM1 banned? I missed that.

    Seemed a decent poster. Hope he returns.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Have we considered taxing rich people?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Are Trumpton’s white eye sockets a new thing? He looks like some sort of nightmarish puppet.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,620
    Does anyone know what proportion of Italian oldies share houses with younger generations ?

    And how does that compare with other countries ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?

    They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
    How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
    Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.

    That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.

    Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
    Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,708
    rcs1000 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?

    I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....

    I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...

    My sister...coughing.....

    Her son...fever and coughing......
    I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.
    Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expected
    If it was millions, which I presume it is in Italy, our system would have crashed by now with the shear number of people requiring hospital treatment. It would have to be the iceberg of all icebergs and the UK to have somehow got ridiculously lucky with the majority of young people getting and not passed it on to oldies.
    Italy could be ten millionn internet, and we could be 1-1.5 million.
    10 million concentrated in Lombardy?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I mean, I know we've tried 35 years of not taxing rich people but it seems to have a few problems. I say we try taxing rich people again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    another_richard said:

    Does anyone know what proportion of Italian oldies share houses with younger generations ?

    And how does that compare with other countries ?

    At least in the north of Italy, it has been said it is really high and if not the same house that the whole family often live very close to one another and culturally you go and eat etc with them.
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