Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
I made it to the UK. We now have it in this household, my sister since the start of the week (caught from GP most likely). Video Dr: "no you won't be tested unless you're hospitalised. But yes you have it".
Seeing her symptoms I'm now 90% certain I had it a month ago in Singapore with my wife and kid. I am leaning towards the view that cases are 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than is thought and that the severity of the illness is over-estimated by the same amount. I cannot explain why this hasn't been picked up with sentinel testing but they keep sticking to the "do you have a fever line" in most countries for general testing. Which is a nonsense. 85% of hospitalised in China may have had a fever but milder cases?
My strong advice: do NOT watch the film Contagion until this is all over.
It was a scary enough film when this was all hypothetical.
Nonsense. It's a brilliant watch and nothing we haven't seen. Indeed, you might take great solace from it because the R0 and mortality rates are so much lower with coronavirus.
It's well worth watching. And I find it 1000x less scary than the real footage from Italian hospitals, for instance.
I've seen it.
Of course, for disaster porn enthusiasts like you and @eadric I suspect you can't jack off enough to it.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
Trump viciously attacks NBC News reporter in extended rant after being asked for message to Americans worried about coronavirus
If Trump is re-elected in November, as still seems highly likely to me, the US’s decline as an engaged global power will become even more precipitous as its internal fragmentation speeds up. The world will need to find workarounds.
Trump viciously attacks NBC News reporter in extended rant after being asked for message to Americans worried about coronavirus
If Trump is re-elected in November, as still seems highly likely to me, the US’s decline as an engaged global power will become even more precipitous as its internal fragmentation speeds up. The world will need to find workarounds.
Interesting thought. Not sure the USE idea will be as popular either - one of the failings of the EU for me living here is that healthcare is not one of the competencies.
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
The bit about vitamin D is interesting. Last year I ended up in hospital with pneumonia and on discharge I was sent away with a supply of high strength vitamin D supplements as I was deficient. I wonder if that is one of the reasons we get more colds and flu in the winter: low vitamin D levels?
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
Excitement is the wrong word. But there may be some long term consolation in that we are now more likely to be heading in a Scandinavian direction of a state that embraces its responsibility for looking after people rather than a US direction of survival of the fittest.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Trump viciously attacks NBC News reporter in extended rant after being asked for message to Americans worried about coronavirus
If Trump is re-elected in November, as still seems highly likely to me, the US’s decline as an engaged global power will become even more precipitous as its internal fragmentation speeds up. The world will need to find workarounds.
Look on the bright side. if Trump is re-elected, he can't have another term.
Trump viciously attacks NBC News reporter in extended rant after being asked for message to Americans worried about coronavirus
If Trump is re-elected in November, as still seems highly likely to me, the US’s decline as an engaged global power will become even more precipitous as its internal fragmentation speeds up. The world will need to find workarounds.
Look on the bright side. if Trump is re-elected, he can't have another term.
While David's article is interesting I take a different view. I think we're primed for a swinging period that will be remembered as the best of our lives.
Debt = Savings. Looks to me we're primed for another decade of mega inflation in asset prices. However the circumstances are such that I think there's a decent chance of this leading through to wage inflation in a more meaningful way than 2008.
Unprecedented QE last decade didn't do much for wage growth despite banging on the ceiling of theoretical full employment for years. Why? Imported deflation on goods, largely China with very low cost labour and IP/environmental non-compliance). Imported deflation on services through free and easy immigration.
We're in a different world now, globalisation was already weakening and there are sensible readings of this crisis that cv-19 will embed and accelerate this reversal. So in the short to medium term mega boom time with the masses enjoying the benefits of this growth, rather than almost all the benefits accruing to 1000 billionaires and the abject poverty stricken in the developing world. I struggle to believe that this unprecedented stimulus won't lead to productivity improvements somewhere.
After that might we return to an era of much higher rates? How long will that take? Goodness knows. Seems to me though that the play is to lever yourself massively on longer term fixed rates and enjoy the ride.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
Excitement is the wrong word. But there may be some long term consolation in that we are now more likely to be heading in a Scandinavian direction of a state that embraces its responsibility for looking after people rather than a US direction of survival of the fittest.
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
"... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."
If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests.
I doubt it, unless they were actually eating someone.
The church maintains that is exactly what you are doing. Now as an atheist, I personally believe that they are just much munching sub-standard bread and probably 2nd rate wine, but the message, to me, is one step from promoting cannibalism.
Yes, but you aren't actually doing it, are you?
The Church of England position on the eucharist, insofar as it has one, is that the wafer and wine represent the body and blood of Christ. It is a metaphor, if you like. The Roman Catholic doctrine, known as transubstantiation, is that the wafer and wine literally become the body and blood of Christ. That is the crucial point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
Anyone who thinks they understand the Church of England doctrine of the eucharist has not understood the question.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
Looking at easy-to-use video conferencing sites for our U3a and someone has suggested Jitsi. meet. TBH looks almost too good to be true. Easy to set up, free, long time allowed (Zoom's only 40 minutes), no charge apparently.and secure. Either someone's VERY altruistic or there's a catch.
Mr. Observer, not so sure Trump will be re-elected. We'll see.
Thank you. She's in isolation in her room but seems to have progressed beyond the chest pain/breathlessness symptoms that I recognised in myself from last month to now extreme fatigue, flueyness and gasto problems (which the video dr said are common on day 5-ish).
The main concern is within this household there are two 70-yr olds with health conditions and my pregnant wife. Dettol spray on the bannister and door handles is my twice daily ritual, hopefully it does the trick.
Still it's a nice day today, bbq will get its first outing of the year.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
Excitement is the wrong word. But there may be some long term consolation in that we are now more likely to be heading in a Scandinavian direction of a state that embraces its responsibility for looking after people rather than a US direction of survival of the fittest.
So in other words that political debate which has sustained us for so many years will broadly continue as before - maybe - in my experience people have very short memories these days. Sadly.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
Excitement is the wrong word. But there may be some long term consolation in that we are now more likely to be heading in a Scandinavian direction of a state that embraces its responsibility for looking after people rather than a US direction of survival of the fittest.
That's a little bit reducto ad absurdium.
Firstly, we are nothing like the US in the UK and second the Scandinavian model has become almost mythical but is far more mixed and market based than commonly perceived (free schools started there for example) and they've been *reducing* taxes there recently in recognition they are too high.
For what it's worth I might accept the 40% higher rate going up to 45% for a period of 5 years maximum and a bit of fiscal drag (national emergency) to rebalance the books. But no more than that.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
I am not criticising the government’s response, just noting it failures on this are common to almost all governments. Overall, its handling of the crisis has been good, though less decisive than I would have liked. There’s still more to do, though. The self-employed are going to need more help, as are those on zero-hours arrangements. That will happen. There is no choice.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
Totally agree with every word. I am not a Johnson fan but he does seem to have acquired the skill of delegation to those who know better than him. AOTBE - Rishi could easily be his successor.
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.
How many Italians, and Spanish for that matter, still go to Mass ?
I suspect that Mass goers are predominantly older.
5:55 the reason for the outbreak being so dire in Italy ?
Bl**dy hell - that is creepy! If anyone else made a video about how good it was to eat someone else, they could expect a visit from PC Plod and their social media accounts cleaned out.
In Catholic doctrine not only is the body of Christ present in the bread of the Eucharist but Christ as a whole
"... you touch him, you eat him... he gives himself to you to be your food and nourishment ..."
If it was said in any video other than a church video, there would be arrests.
I doubt it, unless they were actually eating someone.
The church maintains that is exactly what you are doing. Now as an atheist, I personally believe that they are just much munching sub-standard bread and probably 2nd rate wine, but the message, to me, is one step from promoting cannibalism.
Yes, but you aren't actually doing it, are you?
The Church of England position on the eucharist, insofar as it has one, is that the wafer and wine represent the body and blood of Christ. It is a metaphor, if you like. The Roman Catholic doctrine, known as transubstantiation, is that the wafer and wine literally become the body and blood of Christ. That is the crucial point. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transubstantiation
The phrase for Protestants (and Anglicans get to be both Protestants and Catholics, naturally :-) ) is 'in remembrance'. So I would go with memorial not metaphor, that is still a means of grace.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
Agree - "Containment" is only really possible (if at all) in small societies with few entry points which can be robustly monitored - Singapore, Hong Kong - and in the British Isles, so far, Guernsey (anyone arriving now has to self-isolate for 14 days) Nearby Jersey hasn't been so lucky/effective and now has community transmission. The worry in Guernsey is that the most recent wave of arrivals before the self isolation came in (many students) may have carried infection with them and testing (via the UK) is taking too long - so they are commissioning their own testing facility asap - hence the announcement to close pubs & nightclubs before the UK.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
Scandinavia?
I wouldn't say they're prosperous or dynamic.
They're doing ok of course.
'Save for a rainy day' V 'spend, spend, spend' - heard it all my life ever since Viv Nicolson won a few quid on the pools in the 60s. It seems to be a part of the human condition.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I'm glad that May and Hammond aren't in power right now. We'd get her endless dithering and his small thinking. Boris, for all of his many faults, is decisive and Rishi has proven to be someone who can see the big picture. Hammond would be counting pennies right now, fiddling while Rome burned, talking about how people are eligible for some benefit or other rather than saving the jobs. I can just see it.
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
The bit about vitamin D is interesting. Last year I ended up in hospital with pneumonia and on discharge I was sent away with a supply of high strength vitamin D supplements as I was deficient. I wonder if that is one of the reasons we get more colds and flu in the winter: low vitamin D levels?
A number of senior medical people I have known, including the Professor who for a while was leading on my condition, are of the view that low Vitamin D is one of the most significant deficiencies we can have, with all sorts of medical consequences. He put me on daily tablets (the standard dose in the Boots Vit D-only tablets) and advised remaining so for life.
The bad news is that it takes a long time for the body to restore its levels - a blood test after being on the tablets for six months found me only half way back to normal.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
I am not criticising the government’s response, just noting it failures on this are common to almost all governments. Overall, its handling of the crisis has been good, though less decisive than I would have liked. There’s still more to do, though. The self-employed are going to need more help, as are those on zero-hours arrangements. That will happen. There is no choice.
The emergency response can be judged on its own merits, the bigger point is that the role of any government is to avoid the emergency in the first place. When the immediate crisis is over there will have to be a full public inquiry.
I'm glad that May and Hammond aren't in power right now. We'd get her endless dithering and his small thinking. Boris, for all of his many faults, is decisive and Rishi has proven to be someone who can see the big picture. Hammond would be counting pennies right now, fiddling while Rome burned, talking about how people are eligible for some benefit or other rather than saving the jobs. I can just see it.
But most significantly Boris would be undermining the whole operation from the sidelines in his singular efforts to become prime minister. The main advantage Boris has is that he doesn’t have to worry about Boris.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
In the name of economy, we have similarly allowed our healthcare system to function at a dangerously exposed level of “just-in-time” full capacity, leaving nothing spare for a pandemic such as this. In much the same way as the banking system was almost criminally short of capital, the NHS lacks the staff, beds, intensive care units and even testing kit to cope. If it had these resources, we perhaps wouldn't have to close down the economy so forcibly with social distancing measures.
I'm glad that May and Hammond aren't in power right now. We'd get her endless dithering and his small thinking. Boris, for all of his many faults, is decisive and Rishi has proven to be someone who can see the big picture. Hammond would be counting pennies right now, fiddling while Rome burned, talking about how people are eligible for some benefit or other rather than saving the jobs. I can just see it.
May would have been awful and terrible at communicating. She'd probably have got the CMO to do the daily briefings and hidden away in her bunker.
Cameron and Osborne would have been very good though.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I don't think you are right (I don't see many good examples around at the moment, certainly not in largish open countries like ours). But your comment is important because lots of people will feel the same - especially, I am thinking, people whose own businesses are lost during the pandemic - and this will surely play out into society and politics afterwards somehow.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I know. You've said some very nice things to me personally on here over the last couple of days too, which I was touched by.
I know you're just a good bloke who wants to do the right thing.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
Are you saying that your hard work does not benefit you from sound public services, say intensive care beds, if you happen to pay over 50%? You would be better off keeping the money and buying a Merc?
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
Scandinavia?
I wouldn't say they're prosperous or dynamic.
They're doing ok of course.
'Save for a rainy day' V 'spend, spend, spend' - heard it all my life ever since Viv Nicolson won a few quid on the pools in the 60s. It seems to be a part of the human condition.
The thing is that our taxes will probably go up without anything to show for it because they'll all be focussed on just keeping us solvent. So we might just get stagflation instead.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
I agree, I think to make the argument govts have failed it needs to be clear what the alternative response would have been. Presumably that is implement the restrictions that have been made a month earlier? A week or twos difference is hard to describe as failure, and would be hard to prove it would have been better.
If we had implemented restrictions a month earlier, yes fewer coronavirus cases would be present, but we would still have no good solution. Big economic costs would be 1 month more, so 25-33% additional costs (or less generous compensation for employees and businesses).
Most importantly if we were to have locked down the economy as we have done a month ago, how would we have known we didnt need to do so during Zika, Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS? Or should we have had several shutdowns to protect the risk against those?
8/10 is a fair assessment, the government have done well in a high pressure scenario.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I don't think you are right (I don't see many good examples around at the moment, certainly not in largish open countries like ours). But your comment is important because lots of people will feel the same - especially, I am thinking, people whose own businesses are lost during the pandemic - and this will surely play out into society and politics afterwards somehow.
My son was in his GCSE year. The grown ups have let his generation down. We could have done things differently. Even policy changes as late as Jan and Feb could have made a big difference.
It was fascinating - and, from my perspective, very encouraging - to see the contrasting responses of Starmer and McDonnell to Sunak’s announcement yesterday. Now, more than ever, we need a grown-up, constructive opposition. We may be just two weeks from getting one.
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
The bit about vitamin D is interesting. Last year I ended up in hospital with pneumonia and on discharge I was sent away with a supply of high strength vitamin D supplements as I was deficient. I wonder if that is one of the reasons we get more colds and flu in the winter: low vitamin D levels?
A number of senior medical people I have known, including the Professor who for a while was leading on my condition, are of the view that low Vitamin D is one of the most significant deficiencies we can have, with all sorts of medical consequences. He put me on daily tablets (the standard dose in the Boots Vit D-only tablets) and advised remaining so for life.
The bad news is that it takes a long time for the body to restore its levels - a blood test after being on the tablets for six months found me only half way back to normal.
An interesting feature of Vitamin D is that although the body needs it to turn calcium into bone, we don't manufacture it without sunlight, which is one of the reasons that as our ancestors migrated north out of Africa they lost their skin colour, and a reason for the development of rickets in children with both inadequate calcium intake and inadequete sunlight.
“ be aware that there is also a second cold bug going around, which is highly unpleasant but not, from personal experience, lethal.‘. Is it possible for the testing to get it muddled? To what extent do we actually trust test results to be accurate?
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
I agree, I think to make the argument govts have failed it needs to be clear what the alternative response would have been. Presumably that is implement the restrictions that have been made a month earlier? A week or twos difference is hard to describe as failure, and would be hard to prove it would have been better.
If we had implemented restrictions a month earlier, yes fewer coronavirus cases would be present, but we would still have no good solution. Big economic costs would be 1 month more, so 25-33% additional costs (or less generous compensation for employees and businesses).
Most importantly if we were to have locked down the economy as we have done a month ago, how would we have known we didnt need to do so during Zika, Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS? Or should we have had several shutdowns to protect the risk against those?
8/10 is a fair assessment, the government have done well in a high pressure scenario.
Penultimate para asks a very fair question. Of course, if more money had been spent on the NHS over the previous 10 years of Tory Government.........
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I don't think you are right (I don't see many good examples around at the moment, certainly not in largish open countries like ours). But your comment is important because lots of people will feel the same - especially, I am thinking, people whose own businesses are lost during the pandemic - and this will surely play out into society and politics afterwards somehow.
My son was in his GCSE year. The grown ups have let his generation down. We could have done things differently. Even policy changes as late as Jan and Feb could have made a big difference.
In the middle of January this was the WHO position:
I'm glad that May and Hammond aren't in power right now. We'd get her endless dithering and his small thinking. Boris, for all of his many faults, is decisive and Rishi has proven to be someone who can see the big picture. Hammond would be counting pennies right now, fiddling while Rome burned, talking about how people are eligible for some benefit or other rather than saving the jobs. I can just see it.
McDonnell would have been good in this crisis IMO. But probably not Corbyn.
Johnson is doing OK for me. I quite like the tone he's striking.
I am not inclined to join the Sunak love-in but he communicates well (touch of the Blairs) and his package yesterday lived up to the hype in most respects.
In the name of economy, we have similarly allowed our healthcare system to function at a dangerously exposed level of “just-in-time” full capacity, leaving nothing spare for a pandemic such as this. In much the same way as the banking system was almost criminally short of capital, the NHS lacks the staff, beds, intensive care units and even testing kit to cope. If it had these resources, we perhaps wouldn't have to close down the economy so forcibly with social distancing measures.
There is zero evidence that you are right on this. The UK is not yet even in full lock-down mode. Every country that is are facing healthcare crises including those with greater healthcare capacity. The sort of preparedness you refer to is basically wishful thinking. P:eople won't vote to have vast resources standing idle between pandemics. We are where we are now and all efforts should be focussed on getting through it. Anger and blame are the cheapest and must useless resources right now.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I don't think you are right (I don't see many good examples around at the moment, certainly not in largish open countries like ours). But your comment is important because lots of people will feel the same - especially, I am thinking, people whose own businesses are lost during the pandemic - and this will surely play out into society and politics afterwards somehow.
My son was in his GCSE year. The grown ups have let his generation down. We could have done things differently. Even policy changes as late as Jan and Feb could have made a big difference.
In the middle of January this was the WHO position:
The US is in a whole heap of trouble. Trump’s worries will really begin if the red states start getting battered.
The question for the US curve is how much of its sharp rise is actual spread because they were so slow in clamping down, and how much of it is statistical catch-up (finding people now who were infected way back) because they were so slow in testing.
On deaths the UK curve doesn't look at all encouraging (although the decision to start all the lines from the tenth death looks arbitrary and may be creating a false impression)
I would mark the government 7/10. This is very hard to respond to and the government needs to be given a lot of leeway. It initially took a bold but ultimately incorrect decision to let the outbreak run. It was running to catch up with events all last week with its financial package and it still hasn’t got there yet. Boris Johnson is fundamentally too unserious and too incoherent to communicate clear public health announcements: he has got in the way of the experts with his muddled messaging (eg his comments about Mother’s Day).
But taken as a whole, it has tried hard to rectify its mistakes and overall it is doing ok.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
Are you saying that your hard work does not benefit you from sound public services, say intensive care beds, if you happen to pay over 50%? You would be better off keeping the money and buying a Merc?
At what point do you think people should be allowed to keep the money they've earned? 60% ? 70%? 80%?
Yes, we'd all like good healthcare. We'd also like to buy a house, car, provide for our families, go on nice holidays and enjoy ourselves (when we're not slaving with our noses to the grindstone) too.
King Cole, Health, unlike almost any other department (I think International Aid was the only other exception) was ring-fenced during austerity and has seen continual increases in spending.
More spending means either extra taxes, shifting funds from elsewhere, or more borrowing. The economic hit we're going to take is going to make things more difficult in the years ahead.
If we'd had no austerity we'd be even more in debt, with a higher deficit.
Perhaps the only plus point on the pandemic timing is that it happened early in the PM's time in office, before he had time to mindlessly splurge endless billions buying headlines with flashy spending pledges.
One last note: the NHS would be in better shape if it weren't for Labour's trick of keeping spending off the books via ruinously expensive PFI, schemes that the media and the left tend to forget about.
His point of view has credibility but there are increasing numbers of cases of healthy men it their 30s dying - 2 Guardia Civil in Spain for example. Nothing about this is easy.
The difficulty everyone on this site has is that we are, by definition, interested in predicting the future. Epictetus put it thus, if you expect the universe to deliver what you want, you are going to be disappointed, but if you embrace whatever the universe gives, then life will be a whole lot smoother. Conversely if you expect the universe to deliver what you don’t want, you are going to be incredibly depressed.
In truth no one, and I mean no one, knows what is going to happen. I contrast the carnage in Italy with the relative stability of Germany, and then with the message from our CEO on Thursday “I’m happy to report that our Greater China offices are largely back to normal.”. On Friday I had my finger ready to press send on an update to my employment law clients when the Chancellor waived his magic wand and I had to go back to the drawing board.
The comments on here are interesting and informed but I urge everyone, so far as you can, to just concentrate on today. It has helped my mental health no end.
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
The bit about vitamin D is interesting. Last year I ended up in hospital with pneumonia and on discharge I was sent away with a supply of high strength vitamin D supplements as I was deficient. I wonder if that is one of the reasons we get more colds and flu in the winter: low vitamin D levels?
A number of senior medical people I have known, including the Professor who for a while was leading on my condition, are of the view that low Vitamin D is one of the most significant deficiencies we can have, with all sorts of medical consequences. He put me on daily tablets (the standard dose in the Boots Vit D-only tablets) and advised remaining so for life.
The bad news is that it takes a long time for the body to restore its levels - a blood test after being on the tablets for six months found me only half way back to normal.
An interesting feature of Vitamin D is that although the body needs it to turn calcium into bone, we don't manufacture it without sunlight, which is one of the reasons that as our ancestors migrated north out of Africa they lost their skin colour, and a reason for the development of rickets in children with both inadequate calcium intake and inadequete sunlight.
And through evolution the only way that would work was for those people with randomly lighter skin, and hence more vit D, having a survival advantage over those with darker.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I don't think you are right (I don't see many good examples around at the moment, certainly not in largish open countries like ours). But your comment is important because lots of people will feel the same - especially, I am thinking, people whose own businesses are lost during the pandemic - and this will surely play out into society and politics afterwards somehow.
My son was in his GCSE year. The grown ups have let his generation down. We could have done things differently. Even policy changes as late as Jan and Feb could have made a big difference.
In the middle of January this was the WHO position:
My company was taking significant action in December and January before the PHEIC declaration. If private enterprise can do it, so can governments.
Governments are beholden to voters, not shareholders - remarkable that your company was taking "significant action" in December since the WHO was only told about it on the 31st.
King Cole, Health, unlike almost any other department (I think International Aid was the only other exception) was ring-fenced during austerity and has seen continual increases in spending.
More spending means either extra taxes, shifting funds from elsewhere, or more borrowing. The economic hit we're going to take is going to make things more difficult in the years ahead.
If we'd had no austerity we'd be even more in debt, with a higher deficit.
Perhaps the only plus point on the pandemic timing is that it happened early in the PM's time in office, before he had time to mindlessly splurge endless billions buying headlines with flashy spending pledges.
One last note: the NHS would be in better shape if it weren't for Labour's trick of keeping spending off the books via ruinously expensive PFI, schemes that the media and the left tend to forget about.
Two points. Health wasn't ring fenced, certainly not as far as salaries were concerned.
Agree about PFI. Sleight of hand, dodgy, financial 'fix'.
How many of the deaths would have died in the next 12-18 months anyway?
How many suicides will be caused by the depression and economic crisis?
How many lives will be ruined for good that have decades left to run?
I'm yet to see an analysis on this. All should be factored in.
Yes but we live in a "something must be done" era, and cannot turn the clock back to a time when people simply accepted random disaster as part of life (or deflected their thoughts and emotions into a variety of objectively bizarre belief systems)
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
The bit about vitamin D is interesting. Last year I ended up in hospital with pneumonia and on discharge I was sent away with a supply of high strength vitamin D supplements as I was deficient. I wonder if that is one of the reasons we get more colds and flu in the winter: low vitamin D levels?
A number of senior medical people I have known, including the Professor who for a while was leading on my condition, are of the view that low Vitamin D is one of the most significant deficiencies we can have, with all sorts of medical consequences. He put me on daily tablets (the standard dose in the Boots Vit D-only tablets) and advised remaining so for life.
The bad news is that it takes a long time for the body to restore its levels - a blood test after being on the tablets for six months found me only half way back to normal.
An interesting feature of Vitamin D is that although the body needs it to turn calcium into bone, we don't manufacture it without sunlight, which is one of the reasons that as our ancestors migrated north out of Africa they lost their skin colour, and a reason for the development of rickets in children with both inadequate calcium intake and inadequete sunlight.
And through evolution the only way that would work was for those people with randomly lighter skin, and hence more vit D, having a survival advantage over those with darker.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
American GDP per person grew faster and was more evenly distributed between 1950 and 1980 with massively high taxes than between 1980 and 2010 with vastly lower taxes.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
Are you saying that your hard work does not benefit you from sound public services, say intensive care beds, if you happen to pay over 50%? You would be better off keeping the money and buying a Merc?
At what point do you think people should be allowed to keep the money they've earned? 60% ? 70%? 80%?
Yes, we'd all like good healthcare. We'd also like to buy a house, car, provide for our families, go on nice holidays and enjoy ourselves (when we're not slaving with our noses to the grindstone) too.
Sure, I think we just look at the world in different ways. I work, I contribute to common services that benefit my family and others and I spend other money on personal things. There is a balance to be achieved. I don’t particularly discriminate between the two types of spending because I benefit from both. Right now the balance seems out of whack, biased too much toward personal consumption and fripperies.
King Cole, the dopey pension contribution changes are the criticism I'd level (not Health-specific, but it did affect doctors and encourage early retirement).
How many of the deaths would have died in the next 12-18 months anyway?
How many suicides will be caused by the depression and economic crisis?
How many lives will be ruined for good that have decades left to run?
I'm yet to see an analysis on this. All should be factored in.
Yes but we live in a "something must be done" era, and cannot turn the clock back to a time when people simply accepted random disaster as part of life (or deflected their thoughts and emotions into a variety of objectively bizarre belief systems)
I just wonder if there are alternative strategies to locking down the whole country.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
FWIW the emotion I am feeling right now is anger. My view is that this was avoidable or at the very least could have been less harmful.
I don't think you are right (I don't see many good examples around at the moment, certainly not in largish open countries like ours). But your comment is important because lots of people will feel the same - especially, I am thinking, people whose own businesses are lost during the pandemic - and this will surely play out into society and politics afterwards somehow.
My son was in his GCSE year. The grown ups have let his generation down. We could have done things differently. Even policy changes as late as Jan and Feb could have made a big difference.
In the middle of January this was the WHO position:
My company was taking significant action in December and January before the PHEIC declaration. If private enterprise can do it, so can governments.
Governments are beholden to voters, not shareholders - remarkable that your company was taking "significant action" in December since the WHO was only told about it on the 31st.
The difficulty everyone on this site has is that we are, by definition, interested in predicting the future. Epictetus put it thus, if you expect the universe to deliver what you want, you are going to be disappointed, but if you embrace whatever the universe gives, then life will be a whole lot smoother. Conversely if you expect the universe to deliver what you don’t want, you are going to be incredibly depressed.
In truth no one, and I mean no one, knows what is going to happen. I contrast the carnage in Italy with the relative stability of Germany, and then with the message from our CEO on Thursday “I’m happy to report that our Greater China offices are largely back to normal.”. On Friday I had my finger ready to press send on an update to my employment law clients when the Chancellor waived his magic wand and I had to go back to the drawing board.
The comments on here are interesting and informed but I urge everyone, so far as you can, to just concentrate on today. It has helped my mental health no end.
I did just that for most of yesterday - I agree that spleen venting is possibly not good .. for the spleen? I'm clearly no doctor but for sure the blame game is utterly pointless.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
American GDP per person grew faster and was more evenly distributed between 1950 and 1980 with massively high taxes than between 1980 and 2010 with vastly lower taxes.
That's when American bestrode the world like a colossus.
And it was starting to look rather ropey by the mid to late 70s, which was why Reagan won of course.
How many of the deaths would have died in the next 12-18 months anyway?
How many suicides will be caused by the depression and economic crisis?
How many lives will be ruined for good that have decades left to run?
I'm yet to see an analysis on this. All should be factored in.
Look at the state of Italy's hospitals and morgues. That is with massive economy-destroying control and mitigation measures, without which things would be hugely worse. No one could accept that.
I would mark the government 7/10. This is very hard to respond to and the government needs to be given a lot of leeway. It initially took a bold but ultimately incorrect decision to let the outbreak run. It was running to catch up with events all last week with its financial package and it still hasn’t got there yet. Boris Johnson is fundamentally too unserious and too incoherent to communicate clear public health announcements: he has got in the way of the experts with his muddled messaging (eg his comments about Mother’s Day).
But taken as a whole, it has tried hard to rectify its mistakes and overall it is doing ok.
His stuff about Mother's Day was in response to wanky media questions, of which there have been many. Perhaps the questions at the daily briefings should be submitted in advance, both allowing time to prepare an answer - or dismiss it as a waste of everybody's time. I suspect there is a barely suppressed rage at some of the nonsense raised.
But he is acting as an effective CEO, having put the right people onto the Board and letting them run their departments. I'd give him 8/10. Matt Hancock (of whom I'm no great fan) and Rishi Sunak have both outperformed the PM - but that still reflects well on Boris for his talent-spotting them for their roles.
Imagining the alternatives if Labour had won in December should sober most up.
King Cole, the dopey pension contribution changes are the criticism I'd level (not Health-specific, but it did affect doctors and encourage early retirement).
Agree. That as well, although that seems to have been the result of a short-term fix. When was it brought in, incidentally?
We need to increase the resilience of both our people and our health care facilities, as rapidly as possible. Increase personal health resilience: Underlying conditions greatly increase the risk of severe illness. This isn't just bad for patients who get infected, it will take up scarce health care facilities. There has never been a better time to quit smoking, get your blood pressure under control, make sure that if you have diabetes it's well controlled, and -- yes -- get regular physical activity. (Being active outside for at least 15 minutes a day also helps with vitamin D levels. Of all of the various proposed measures to increase your resistance to infection, regular physical activity and adequate vitamin D levels probably have the most scientific evidence to support them -- and can be done safely.)
The bit about vitamin D is interesting. Last year I ended up in hospital with pneumonia and on discharge I was sent away with a supply of high strength vitamin D supplements as I was deficient. I wonder if that is one of the reasons we get more colds and flu in the winter: low vitamin D levels?
A number of senior medical people I have known, including the Professor who for a while was leading on my condition, are of the view that low Vitamin D is one of the most significant deficiencies we can have, with all sorts of medical consequences. He put me on daily tablets (the standard dose in the Boots Vit D-only tablets) and advised remaining so for life.
The bad news is that it takes a long time for the body to restore its levels - a blood test after being on the tablets for six months found me only half way back to normal.
An interesting feature of Vitamin D is that although the body needs it to turn calcium into bone, we don't manufacture it without sunlight, which is one of the reasons that as our ancestors migrated north out of Africa they lost their skin colour, and a reason for the development of rickets in children with both inadequate calcium intake and inadequete sunlight.
And through evolution the only way that would work was for those people with randomly lighter skin, and hence more vit D, having a survival advantage over those with darker.
Which happened.
Very interesting.
Be careful about posting such fact or logic in the twattersphere.
They'll try and twist it into saying you've done a racism.
Governments are at least as likely to choose one of their other options for getting rid of debt: printing money or direct default. Given that most developed countries are going to be in a very similar position, a concerted move is going to be very tempting after this is over.
I think that’s right. And on that basis, it’s hard to see offshoring being left untargeted.
We will all be paying a lot more tax. Possibly a specific corona tax.
Why do I get the impression you and @SouthamObserver are so excited by that?
Because you’re weird. Who on Earth is excited about any of this? It’s a total catastrophe.
Well, indeed.
I'm not talking about the virus or the catastrophic effects - I'm talking about your excitement of putting taxes up after.
I find that weird.
It is an opportunity to press pause and re-evaluate. Taxes going up is not a bad thing if it leads to a more equal, more contented society.
Taxes could more likely choke off investment and growth.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
I am not sure that’s right. It depends how the taxing is done and how the revenue raised is used.
What you need is high growth and wealth creation.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
American GDP per person grew faster and was more evenly distributed between 1950 and 1980 with massively high taxes than between 1980 and 2010 with vastly lower taxes.
That's when American bestrode the world like a colossus.
And it was starting to look rather ropey by the mid to late 70s, which was why Reagan won of course.
Well, that and the Republican dirty tricks brigade having Iran delay releasing the hostages till after the election.
I would mark the government 7/10. This is very hard to respond to and the government needs to be given a lot of leeway. It initially took a bold but ultimately incorrect decision to let the outbreak run. It was running to catch up with events all last week with its financial package and it still hasn’t got there yet. Boris Johnson is fundamentally too unserious and too incoherent to communicate clear public health announcements: he has got in the way of the experts with his muddled messaging (eg his comments about Mother’s Day).
But taken as a whole, it has tried hard to rectify its mistakes and overall it is doing ok.
Bold but ultimately incorrect decisions are the sort of thing that governments usually get hammered for, but I agree that it's wrong to do so.
But when making such a decision on such an important topic, there's an obvious need to prepare for the eventuality that you will need to change course. They deserve to be hammered for their failure to do that. If they had, they would not have been "running to catch up with events all last week".
I would mark the government 7/10. This is very hard to respond to and the government needs to be given a lot of leeway. It initially took a bold but ultimately incorrect decision to let the outbreak run. It was running to catch up with events all last week with its financial package and it still hasn’t got there yet. Boris Johnson is fundamentally too unserious and too incoherent to communicate clear public health announcements: he has got in the way of the experts with his muddled messaging (eg his comments about Mother’s Day).
But taken as a whole, it has tried hard to rectify its mistakes and overall it is doing ok.
His stuff about Mother's Day was in response to wanky media questions, of which there have been many. Perhaps the questions at the daily briefings should be submitted in advance, both allowing time to prepare an answer - or dismiss it as a waste of everybody's time. I suspect there is a barely suppressed rage at some of the nonsense raised.
But he is acting as an effective CEO, having put the right people onto the Board and letting them run their departments. I'd give him 8/10. Matt Hancock (of whom I'm no great fan) and Rishi Sunak have both outperformed the PM - but that still reflects well on Boris for his talent-spotting them for their roles.
Imagining the alternatives if Labour had won in December should sober most up.
His comments about Mother's Day were simply an attempt to square the advice he knew he should be giving with the actions he himself intends to be taking
How many of the deaths would have died in the next 12-18 months anyway?
How many suicides will be caused by the depression and economic crisis?
How many lives will be ruined for good that have decades left to run?
I'm yet to see an analysis on this. All should be factored in.
Yes but we live in a "something must be done" era, and cannot turn the clock back to a time when people simply accepted random disaster as part of life (or deflected their thoughts and emotions into a variety of objectively bizarre belief systems)
I just wonder if there are alternative strategies to locking down the whole country.
You are not really locked down though are you.? You can go to B&Q buy a new bed, go to Primart, take a car ride in the country, have a house party etc etc you have a long way to go to true lockdown
King Cole, the dopey pension contribution changes are the criticism I'd level (not Health-specific, but it did affect doctors and encourage early retirement).
Be grateful that the pension changes also removed the obligation to take an annuity on retirement, which - under the old system - would have crucified anyone due to retire right now.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.
Utter nonsense. Pretending that the UK governement is somehow uniquely bad in this crisis is garbage. How childish you are.
Most governments have failed. They knew what was happening in China, saw the spread to other parts of Asia and failed to prepare. They have been playing catch-up since. That applies to the UK, Spain, Italy, France, Ireland and many others - and the US above all. The childish thing is not to acknowledge that.
I think that the underlying assumption there is that a competent government could somehow have prevented this. Last time I checked Covid 19 was in about 120 countries. There is no way of preventing it whilst remaining a part of the modern world. I was one screaming for the government to be more aggressive in the containment phase but I now accept that the Chief Scientific Advisor was right and I was wrong. Containment was never going to work.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
I agree, I think to make the argument govts have failed it needs to be clear what the alternative response would have been. Presumably that is implement the restrictions that have been made a month earlier? A week or twos difference is hard to describe as failure, and would be hard to prove it would have been better.
If we had implemented restrictions a month earlier, yes fewer coronavirus cases would be present, but we would still have no good solution. Big economic costs would be 1 month more, so 25-33% additional costs (or less generous compensation for employees and businesses).
Most importantly if we were to have locked down the economy as we have done a month ago, how would we have known we didnt need to do so during Zika, Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS? Or should we have had several shutdowns to protect the risk against those?
8/10 is a fair assessment, the government have done well in a high pressure scenario.
Penultimate para asks a very fair question. Of course, if more money had been spent on the NHS over the previous 10 years of Tory Government.........
In turn, if only Labour hadn't buggered the economy by ending boom and bust....
The difficulty everyone on this site has is that we are, by definition, interested in predicting the future. Epictetus put it thus, if you expect the universe to deliver what you want, you are going to be disappointed, but if you embrace whatever the universe gives, then life will be a whole lot smoother. Conversely if you expect the universe to deliver what you don’t want, you are going to be incredibly depressed.
In truth no one, and I mean no one, knows what is going to happen. I contrast the carnage in Italy with the relative stability of Germany, and then with the message from our CEO on Thursday “I’m happy to report that our Greater China offices are largely back to normal.”. On Friday I had my finger ready to press send on an update to my employment law clients when the Chancellor waived his magic wand and I had to go back to the drawing board.
The comments on here are interesting and informed but I urge everyone, so far as you can, to just concentrate on today. It has helped my mental health no end.
I am worried about the economy, the markets, law and order, debt, hyper inflation, our social fabric, the loss of the familiar, all of this preys on my mind but none of it really explains the constant low level hum of anxiety in my head and the queaze in my stomach. Having conducted a ruthless internal audit to find out why I'm feeling like this, I have reached a fairly firm conclusion, which is as follows -
Comments
His entire term in office is now going to be dominated by the economic survival of the nation.
Seeing her symptoms I'm now 90% certain I had it a month ago in Singapore with my wife and kid. I am leaning towards the view that cases are 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than is thought and that the severity of the illness is over-estimated by the same amount. I cannot explain why this hasn't been picked up with sentinel testing but they keep sticking to the "do you have a fever line" in most countries for general testing. Which is a nonsense. 85% of hospitalised in China may have had a fever but milder cases?
Of course, for disaster porn enthusiasts like you and @eadric I suspect you can't jack off enough to it.
I find that weird.
Mr. Observer, not so sure Trump will be re-elected. We'll see.
While David's article is interesting I take a different view. I think we're primed for a swinging period that will be remembered as the best of our lives.
Debt = Savings. Looks to me we're primed for another decade of mega inflation in asset prices. However the circumstances are such that I think there's a decent chance of this leading through to wage inflation in a more meaningful way than 2008.
Unprecedented QE last decade didn't do much for wage growth despite banging on the ceiling of theoretical full employment for years. Why? Imported deflation on goods, largely China with very low cost labour and IP/environmental non-compliance). Imported deflation on services through free and easy immigration.
We're in a different world now, globalisation was already weakening and there are sensible readings of this crisis that cv-19 will embed and accelerate this reversal. So in the short to medium term mega boom time with the masses enjoying the benefits of this growth, rather than almost all the benefits accruing to 1000 billionaires and the abject poverty stricken in the developing world. I struggle to believe that this unprecedented stimulus won't lead to productivity improvements somewhere.
After that might we return to an era of much higher rates? How long will that take? Goodness knows. Seems to me though that the play is to lever yourself massively on longer term fixed rates and enjoy the ride.
No doubt with the benefit of hindsight some things could have been done better but the reality is that the government has to react to each development as best as they can. They have clearly been caught out by the spread in London being way faster than the models projected. This has pushed them into doing a lot of things much faster and before they were ready. But it’s wrong to criticise them for this. They just have to react to events and they have.
The financial step on wages yesterday was bold and broadly welcomed. I think that the self employed and the gig workers will still need more help but the priority is to get schemes up and running. You cannot wait for every detail to be in place or you don’t act fast enough.
Overall I would give the government 8/10 on this which is pretty good.
TBH looks almost too good to be true. Easy to set up, free, long time allowed (Zoom's only 40 minutes), no charge apparently.and secure.
Either someone's VERY altruistic or there's a catch.
The main concern is within this household there are two 70-yr olds with health conditions and my pregnant wife. Dettol spray on the bannister and door handles is my twice daily ritual, hopefully it does the trick.
Still it's a nice day today, bbq will get its first outing of the year.
You can't tax yourself into prosperity.
Firstly, we are nothing like the US in the UK and second the Scandinavian model has become almost mythical but is far more mixed and market based than commonly perceived (free schools started there for example) and they've been *reducing* taxes there recently in recognition they are too high.
For what it's worth I might accept the 40% higher rate going up to 45% for a period of 5 years maximum and a bit of fiscal drag (national emergency) to rebalance the books. But no more than that.
What a nightmare this all is.
They're doing ok of course.
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
The bad news is that it takes a long time for the body to restore its levels - a blood test after being on the tablets for six months found me only half way back to normal.
So far all the evidence I've seen is that for that to take place taxation needs to be moderate and competitive.
On a values point of view I don't think it's right that people cannot keep less than 50% of the income they have worked hard for.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/19/economy-collapsing-can-britain-actually-afford-do-whatever-takes/
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads
to obviate paywall.
Cameron and Osborne would have been very good though.
I know you're just a good bloke who wants to do the right thing.
Fun.
If we had implemented restrictions a month earlier, yes fewer coronavirus cases would be present, but we would still have no good solution. Big economic costs would be 1 month more, so 25-33% additional costs (or less generous compensation for employees and businesses).
Most importantly if we were to have locked down the economy as we have done a month ago, how would we have known we didnt need to do so during Zika, Ebola, Swine Flu and SARS? Or should we have had several shutdowns to protect the risk against those?
8/10 is a fair assessment, the government have done well in a high pressure scenario.
To what extent do we actually trust test results to be accurate?
Of course, if more money had been spent on the NHS over the previous 10 years of Tory Government.........
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20
Johnson is doing OK for me. I quite like the tone he's striking.
I am not inclined to join the Sunak love-in but he communicates well (touch of the Blairs) and his package yesterday lived up to the hype in most respects.
On deaths the UK curve doesn't look at all encouraging (although the decision to start all the lines from the tenth death looks arbitrary and may be creating a false impression)
But taken as a whole, it has tried hard to rectify its mistakes and overall it is doing ok.
Yes, we'd all like good healthcare. We'd also like to buy a house, car, provide for our families, go on nice holidays and enjoy ourselves (when we're not slaving with our noses to the grindstone) too.
More spending means either extra taxes, shifting funds from elsewhere, or more borrowing. The economic hit we're going to take is going to make things more difficult in the years ahead.
If we'd had no austerity we'd be even more in debt, with a higher deficit.
Perhaps the only plus point on the pandemic timing is that it happened early in the PM's time in office, before he had time to mindlessly splurge endless billions buying headlines with flashy spending pledges.
One last note: the NHS would be in better shape if it weren't for Labour's trick of keeping spending off the books via ruinously expensive PFI, schemes that the media and the left tend to forget about.
In truth no one, and I mean no one, knows what is going to happen. I contrast the carnage in Italy with the relative stability of Germany, and then with the message from our CEO on Thursday “I’m happy to report that our Greater China offices are largely back to normal.”. On Friday I had my finger ready to press send on an update to my employment law clients when the Chancellor waived his magic wand and I had to go back to the drawing board.
The comments on here are interesting and informed but I urge everyone, so far as you can, to just concentrate on today. It has helped my mental health no end.
How many suicides will be caused by the depression and economic crisis?
How many lives will be ruined for good that have decades left to run?
I'm yet to see an analysis on this. All should be factored in.
Agree about PFI. Sleight of hand, dodgy, financial 'fix'.
And it was starting to look rather ropey by the mid to late 70s, which was why Reagan won of course.
But he is acting as an effective CEO, having put the right people onto the Board and letting them run their departments. I'd give him 8/10. Matt Hancock (of whom I'm no great fan) and Rishi Sunak have both outperformed the PM - but that still reflects well on Boris for his talent-spotting them for their roles.
Imagining the alternatives if Labour had won in December should sober most up.
Be careful about posting such fact or logic in the twattersphere.
They'll try and twist it into saying you've done a racism.
But when making such a decision on such an important topic, there's an obvious need to prepare for the eventuality that you will need to change course. They deserve to be hammered for their failure to do that. If they had, they would not have been "running to catch up with events all last week".
I'm shit scared of getting Covid-19.