politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking on the bright side: another decade of austerity. At be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking on the bright side: another decade of austerity. At best
This is Year Zero. We are at the cusp of the Before and the After. Covid-19, and the policy responses to it, are changing the world in a way that will affect it for decades and to put it bluntly, it doesn’t look good.
Comments
-
Top piece David, oh and first.0
-
We are about to find out if modern monetary theory is just a theory or actually a working model..
I suspect it all depends on how quickly China ramps up production again2 -
I am shocked I tell you, absolutely shocked at the look being sported by the gentleman in the Brew Dog,
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8136757/Drinkers-enjoy-final-pint-start-panic-buying-alcohol-UK-WIDE-pub-lockdown.html0 -
Thanks for the header, David.
0 -
Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.0
-
FPT:
The trick is: fart then immediately ask 'who just farted?'RobD said:
Just make sure you are muted.SandyRentool said:
One advantage of working from home is that when you need to pass wind you can just let rip.FrancisUrquhart said:As a long time work from homer, I can't say that I always get dressed for work.
0 -
If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?Jonathan said:Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.
2 -
The front line...I have just spoken to my sister.....
She and her husband are teachers in London and both volunteering to keep their schools open for key worker's children (many in health)
She has two doctors at home- her son and his girlfriend- both are in London
Her other son has returned after 7 days isolation to a respiratory ward in the south.......
All of them are going to be heavily exposed to the virus....these are the kind of sacrifices some of our public sector workers are now going to make.....2 -
You can’t spend tomorrows money today. We don’t have a time machine. If we spend it today, it is today’s money. Meanwhile we don’t have enough critical care beds.david_herdson said:
If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?Jonathan said:Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.
0 -
Great header David, thanks.
One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".
I think the fundamental shift (which might have been coming anyway) is going to be away from the small-statism of the last 40 years.
Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.1 -
Yes it's not exactly austerity is it?!Benpointer said:Great header David, thanks.
One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".
Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.0 -
Sad that a few weeks ago it seemed we would be spending hundreds of billions on much needed investment in the country, but now we'll be spending it just to keep the economy afloat for a year.0
-
Yes - same point I was trying to make - you make it much more succinctly!Jonathan said:Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.
0 -
We'll do both imo. The measures announced today will help ensure the economy bounces back but the spending (and tax) levels will remain higher going forward.Artist said:Sad that a few weeks ago it seemed we would be spending hundreds of billions on much needed investment in the country, but now we'll be spending it just to keep the economy afloat for a year.
0 -
We should have made different decisions with yesterdays money.......david_herdson said:
If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?Jonathan said:Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.
Now we are relying on the NHS and key parts of the public sector to keep us all safe......and you know what...they are going to go that extra mile and put themselves on the line for us.... and after this horror has come to pass..they will deserve whatever comes to them0 -
All credit to them. They deserve our utmost respect.tyson said:The front line...I have just spoken to my sister.....
She and her husband are teachers in London and both volunteering to keep their schools open for key worker's children (many in health)
She has two doctors at home- her son and his girlfriend- both are in London
Her other son has returned after 7 days isolation to a respiratory ward in the south.......
All of them are going to be heavily exposed to the virus....these are the kind of sacrifices some of our public sector workers are now going to make.....1 -
Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
Looks like tonight was the last Hurrah for many. I hope they enjoyed it, particularly those down in London...0
-
I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?
The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.
If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll
Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.
2 -
The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.0 -
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.1 -
It's weird how this happens, which gives us the environment to try new radical things, at exactly this time when there's people in place who would try new radical things, but need the chaos to exist to do it in.eek said:We are about to find out if modern monetary theory is just a theory or actually a working model..
I suspect it all depends on how quickly China ramps up production again0 -
Totally away from the C19 have just spent the evening watching the first three parts of Netflix's new series "The English Game". Great to have something about football and a part of the world NE Lancs that barely gets any attention.1
-
Putting on the pedant hat, we can't have an indebted world. The world has to be in balance between debtors and creditors.DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.1
-
My elder sister is absolutely shit scared....she should have been retiring this year. Young Medics that are heavily exposed to the virus are at risk- she has three in the family- two sons and a daughter in law.Benpointer said:
All credit to them. They deserve our utmost respect.tyson said:The front line...I have just spoken to my sister.....
She and her husband are teachers in London and both volunteering to keep their schools open for key worker's children (many in health)
She has two doctors at home- her son and his girlfriend- both are in London
Her other son has returned after 7 days isolation to a respiratory ward in the south.......
All of them are going to be heavily exposed to the virus....these are the kind of sacrifices some of our public sector workers are now going to make.....
My sister and her husband are volunteering to teach in the essential skills schools in London- knowing they'll be exposed to the virus, but to show solidarity with the NHS....
0 -
There's a lot of it about.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It is if overall GDP falls significantly.Mysticrose said:
Yes it's not exactly austerity is it?!Benpointer said:Great header David, thanks.
One quibble: the thread title "...another decade of austerity".
Expect to see state spending at c50% of GDP fgoing forward.
0 -
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.0 -
A lot of young NHS staff who are exposed to a huge amount of this virus treating them will also die.....can I just too tell you quite kindly to go fuck yourself....asjohnstone said:I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?
The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.
If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll
Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.
1 -
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
These pictures, are they actual photographs of what it looks like?0
-
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.TGOHF666 said:
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.0 -
You’re right. My view was excessively western centric. We will be further indebted and the east shall rise.SandyRentool said:
Putting on the pedant hat, we can't have an indebted world. The world has to be in balance between debtors and creditors.DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
I want to thank Big_G_NorthWales for his kind words on the previous thread. I am not JM1, and I have no idea who he is. But I haven't been banned.0
-
I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.Jonathan said:
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.TGOHF666 said:
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.1 -
It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
I am so pleased about that and of course your kindnessJames_M said:I want to thank Big_G_NorthWales for his kind words on the previous thread. I am not JM1, and I have no idea who he is. But I haven't been banned.
1 -
Probably a bit more than after this shit show plays out.RobD said:
I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.Jonathan said:
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.TGOHF666 said:
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.0 -
I wonder how much government you’d end up with.RobD said:
I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.Jonathan said:
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.TGOHF666 said:
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.1 -
I don't think this credible. If it had spread so widely already, the death toll would also be spread over more areas.rcs1000 said:
Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expectedRobD said:
I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.tyson said:
I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....Pulpstar said:Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?
I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...
My sister...coughing.....
Her son...fever and coughing......0 -
Seems unlikely. Wasting money on tens of thousands of ICU beds to be used in the event of a once-in-a-century pandemic seems like a poor allocation of resources, but that is exactly what you are proposing.Jonathan said:
Probably a bit more than after this shit show plays out.RobD said:
I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.Jonathan said:
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.TGOHF666 said:
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.1 -
I used Zoom tonight for a virtual pub night. It worked suprisingly well. We seemed to be allowed to go beyond the 40 minutes default, which was a positive.0
-
I have trouble believing anyone could write such a comment pieceasjohnstone said:I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?
The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.
If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll
Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.2 -
I don’t know about you, but looking around I’m going out on a limb and say that things are not working so well.RobD said:
Seems unlikely. Wasting money on tens of thousands of ICU beds to be used in the event of a once-in-a-century pandemic seems like a poor allocation of resources, but that is exactly what you are proposing.Jonathan said:
Probably a bit more than after this shit show plays out.RobD said:
I wonder how much money you'd be left with after tax if the government had to make adequate preparations for all eventualities.Jonathan said:
Slightly more to it. The first duty of government is to protect its citizens. By any objective measure our government has failed. Now is not the time as they stitch together a last minute response, but there must be a reckoning.TGOHF666 said:
Biggest take always are don’t eat bats and don’t believe authoritarian governments like China.SandyRentool said:The global Ponzi scheme comes crashing down.
It was always built on a lie, and the hollowness of it all is being revealed.
Time to try something different.0 -
You just print more. That's how money works if you have a printing press.david_herdson said:
If we spend tomorrow's money today, what happens when we get to tomorrow?Jonathan said:Austerity? Hasn’t it done enough damage? Time to find a different tune.
0 -
I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.SandyRentool said:
It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.1 -
I had a double take and looked at his profile picture...and it kind of explained itBig_G_NorthWales said:
I have trouble believing anyone could write such a comment pieceasjohnstone said:I appreciate that this may sound rather harsh, but what would the reasonably fast death of, say, half a million elderly people actually mean longer term for the economy, Is it all that bad ?
The looming aged care bill would be drastically reduced over decades, state pension payments reduced markedly, it'd deliver an effective supply side boost to the housing market.
If we are to face mass deaths, best done quickly and allow the economy a "v" rebound. Worst case scenario is years of lockdown and the same or only marginally lower death toll
Obvious human tragedy but as this thread is about economics. If it's going to happen, best to get it over with quickly.0 -
Sure, the pie needs to be big enough. But making it bigger just so that the person with 2 slices gets 3 instead is pointless.DavidL said:
I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.SandyRentool said:
It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
Anyway, enough pies for one evening.
Night all.0 -
Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.Nigelb said:
Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.0 -
This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
1 -
"They care about the economy, we just happen to be part of it.glw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
OK, cynicism aside, most of the UK are fairly happy with this. I've never voted Conservative and I probably never will, but I think they do genuinely care and they are genuinely trying to do their best. Boris is a fucking weapons-grade twat but at least he knows the limits of his knowledge and is leaning on the scientists and the economists.
He fancies himself a modern-day Churchill. He's not. He's a foppish dilettante who views this PM lark as a joke. I have almost zero faith in him. But I have faith in the people he has nominated to handle this crisis, and I'm glad that he seems to be letting them make the crucial decisions."
2 -
Businesses are likely to be more cautious for quite a few years.
International trade will take a significant hit for quite a few years.
Ditto travel.
Ditto overseas students studying in the UK.
Will we see more vertical businesses ? Less just in time manufacturing ? Will resilience be prized over efficiency ?
Will expectation of government increase ?
OTOH, there is going to be a massive shift in the world’s energy supply, with power ending up significantly cheaper in the medium term. The destruction wreaked on the corporate world will possibly accelerate technological change.
In any event, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
1 -
One of those long grass things...DavidL said:
I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.Nigelb said:
Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.1 -
Charlie Austin, footballer, claims he has it and that he thinks it got it from Cheltenham. Hopefully it isn't revealed that in fact that was a massive transmission vector for the spread.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
0 -
How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
0 -
Electric cars will last a lot longer, have far fewer moving bits, and are starting to be designed to be recycled.IshmaelZ said:
Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
0 -
It wasn’t. It was a business as usual signal at a time we needed a temporary halt on socialising.Pulpstar said:
How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
0 -
It was about as clever as going to see the Stereophonics in Cardiff on Sunday in an indoor arena.......Pulpstar said:
How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
0 -
SandyRentool said:
Sure, the pie needs to be big enough. But making it bigger just so that the person with 2 slices gets 3 instead is pointless.DavidL said:
I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.SandyRentool said:
It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
Anyway, enough pies for one evening.
Night all.
Have I missed pie?SandyRentool said:
Sure, the pie needs to be big enough. But making it bigger just so that the person with 2 slices gets 3 instead is pointless.DavidL said:
I disagree. The size of the pie is very important. It’s much easier to give people more pie when there is additional pie to share. Taking it away from those that already have it is more difficult. But I do not disagree that our current model does not work for too many people. The young, the low skilled and those without secure employment do not get an adequate share and risk being ever more alienated from our society.SandyRentool said:
It's not the size of the pie that is the problem. It is the fact that too many people only get crumbs.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
Anyway, enough pies for one evening.
Night all.1 -
Today was their best day of the crisis.glw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
Let’s hope they have more.0 -
Most of the positive comments are from Americansglw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/0 -
You've made a tally?not_on_fire said:
Most of the positive comments are from Americansglw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/0 -
Four people off with symptoms from under a hundred where I work.rcs1000 said:
Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expectedRobD said:
I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.tyson said:
I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....Pulpstar said:Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?
I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...
My sister...coughing.....
Her son...fever and coughing......0 -
I see Bernie is still going hard on the campaign trail, albeit virtually. Surely he doesn't think he can still win?-1
-
Believe me, Reddit does not like the Tories (apart from maybe /r/The_Donald). It's the most positive post I've seen, and it's right on the front page.not_on_fire said:
Most of the positive comments are from Americansglw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/0 -
I hope so, but they’re running out of headlines they can control directly. There are only so many things they can do.Nigelb said:
Today was their best day of the crisis.glw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
Let’s hope they have more.
Soon events will take over. I sincerely hope they will be lucky.0 -
If the bailout works, then people will resume the same behaviours.Nigelb said:Businesses are likely to be more cautious for quite a few years.
International trade will take a significant hit for quite a few years.
Ditto travel.
Ditto overseas students studying in the UK.
Will we see more vertical businesses ? Less just in time manufacturing ? Will resilience be prized over efficiency ?
Will expectation of government increase ?
OTOH, there is going to be a massive shift in the world’s energy supply, with power ending up significantly cheaper in the medium term. The destruction wreaked on the corporate world will possibly accelerate technological change.
In any event, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.0 -
That won't stop people who can afford new ones buying new ones, so if their cast offs last longer that just means more of them, more roads, more gridlock. You can't keep putting more things into limited space indefinitely.Nigelb said:
Electric cars will last a lot longer, have far fewer moving bits, and are starting to be designed to be recycled.IshmaelZ said:
Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
And batteries use rare resources and are very tricky to dispose of.0 -
If it was millions, which I presume it is in Italy, our system would have crashed by now with the shear number of people requiring hospital treatment. It would have to be the iceberg of all icebergs and the UK to have somehow got ridiculously lucky with the majority of young people getting and not passed it on to oldies.rcs1000 said:
Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expectedRobD said:
I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.tyson said:
I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....Pulpstar said:Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?
I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...
My sister...coughing.....
Her son...fever and coughing......0 -
Its the end of Osbrowne economics.2
-
What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?0
-
Is there a story behind that statement ?tyson said:
It was about as clever as going to see the Stereophonics in Cardiff on Sunday in an indoor arena.......Pulpstar said:
How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
0 -
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds. Now that might be their testing is picking up lots of people with few symptoms and thus the spread of the disease is nothing like France, Spain or Italy.Jonathan said:What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
It should be noted they are now up to 50 deaths and it has been revealed unlike the UK is somebody dies before being tested of something else e.g. heart attack, they don't then go and test to see if they had it.
We don't actually know how many tests they are doing per day.1 -
Pictures of it are all around China according to my friend out there.another_richard said:
Is there a story behind that statement ?tyson said:
It was about as clever as going to see the Stereophonics in Cardiff on Sunday in an indoor arena.......Pulpstar said:
How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
They think we are bonkers.0 -
But....it made me feel that they will do whatever it takes to get Covid 19 done....Jonathan said:
I hope so, but they’re running out of headlines they can control directly. There are only so many things they can do.Nigelb said:
Today was their best day of the crisis.glw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
Let’s hope they have more.
Soon events will take over. I sincerely hope they will be lucky.
mainly because if they don't and Covid 19 doesn't get done...then what?
0 -
I'm involved in a business that takes old Nissan Leaf batteries and uses them to create something like Tesla PowerWalls.Nigelb said:
Electric cars will last a lot longer, have far fewer moving bits, and are starting to be designed to be recycled.IshmaelZ said:
Energy is only part of the problem. Whatever a car runs on it needs finite resources to build, leaves heavily polluting remains to be disposed of when it dies, and requires you to pave paradise and put up a parking lot to have somewhere to put it.DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.
Fabulous recycling. Potentially very profitable too.0 -
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?FrancisUrquhart said:
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.Jonathan said:What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
0 -
Have we seen any evidence of people from Britain or Ireland catching Covid-19 at Cheltenham? Will we see more in a week or so? If so then perhaps it was a poor decision but if not then we shall have learned something about the transmission of this virus.Nigelb said:
It wasn’t. It was a business as usual signal at a time we needed a temporary halt on socialising.Pulpstar said:
How can it possibly have been a "very clever decision" ? I write this as someone who went to it a few years back and thoroughly enjoyed it.Andy_JS said:
Hopefully allowing Cheltenham to go ahead will prove to be a very clever decision rather than a very stupid one.Pulpstar said:To think the Cheltenham Festival finished only a week ago. The UK seems to have completely changed in that week.
0 -
They need to do something for the self-employed. That should be Monday’s package (even the government are entitled to a weekend).Jonathan said:
I hope so, but they’re running out of headlines they can control directly. There are only so many things they can do.Nigelb said:
Today was their best day of the crisis.glw said:This is on the front page of Reddit, and it is full of positive comments about what the government has announced today. Strange days indeed.
https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/flytre/uk_government_to_pay_80_of_wages_for_employees/
Let’s hope they have more.
Soon events will take over. I sincerely hope they will be lucky.
80% of last year’s tax return pro rata until the quarantine is lifted?0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_QuestionDavidL said:
I am not sure that entropy has yet pushed its way onto our list of problems.Nigelb said:
Because forever is a very long time, and eventually you would exhaust the resources of the universe, as the second law of thermodynamics reminds us....DavidL said:
Why not? Improved technology and higher productivity should produce higher living standards. The challenge is to make this growth compatible with maintaining the planet. The massive growth in green energy and energy efficiency shows that this circle can be squared.Benpointer said:
Growth cannot continue forever. Maybe we need to adjust to maintaining material living standards rather than constantly expecting them to improve?DavidL said:Whilst I would agree that the chart on the previous thread is bollox I do think that it is possible that the economy could bounce back quite quickly from this. One of the more difficult decisions for governments is going to be when to stop and, given the various lags in both the economy and the statistics, it is as likely as not they will overshoot.
But we will undoubtedly have a much more highly indebted world going forward and this is likely to be a drag on growth. There is also the problem that if our scientists are right China in particular has a lot of deferred pain still to come.
I would expect a world with much less travel, less dependent upon international supply lines, inherently more cautious and slower growing. Given the disappointing growth enjoyed since the GFC this is not good news.1 -
Italy could be ten millionn internet, and we could be 1-1.5 million.FrancisUrquhart said:
If it was millions, which I presume it is in Italy, our system would have crashed by now with the shear number of people requiring hospital treatment. It would have to be the iceberg of all icebergs and the UK to have somehow got ridiculously lucky with the majority of young people getting and not passed it on to oldies.rcs1000 said:
Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expectedRobD said:
I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.tyson said:
I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....Pulpstar said:Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?
I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...
My sister...coughing.....
Her son...fever and coughing......
1 -
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.Jonathan said:
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?FrancisUrquhart said:
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.Jonathan said:What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy. And we are unfortunately now starting to see the death rate rise even in there.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns at a time wasn't known it had got to Europe.0 -
The young interact with the young, the old with the old.Jonathan said:
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?FrancisUrquhart said:
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.Jonathan said:What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
0 -
It seems they're detecting lots of the asymptomatic cases.Jonathan said:What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
0 -
My girlfriend just came out with quite an astute political observation I think
“I bet Theresa Mays thinking ‘Thank fuck’ “1 -
Why was JM1 banned? I missed that.
Seemed a decent poster. Hope he returns.0 -
Have we considered taxing rich people?0
-
Are Trumpton’s white eye sockets a new thing? He looks like some sort of nightmarish puppet.1
-
Does anyone know what proportion of Italian oldies share houses with younger generations ?
And how does that compare with other countries ?0 -
Catholic Mass may turn out to be an absolute killer.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well their initial outbreaks were youth carnival events at a time when this virus was known to be in Europe. That was lucky. And then they tested basically everybody who went to those events.Jonathan said:
How do you get that lucky? You make your own luck. How did they make that?FrancisUrquhart said:
They have been incredibly lucky that 70% of their cases are under 50 year olds.Jonathan said:What is Germany getting apparently so right? Lots of testing, lots of cases. Very few deaths. Is there something to learn from it?
That isn't to say the German's aren't doing really well, just pointing out their initial big outbreak was quite different to Italy.
Italy have the opposite, they were incredibly unlucky that it hit an area where lots of old people live and in multi-generational households. And it is thought it circulating among commuting younger people who brought it back to those outlying towns.0 -
10 million concentrated in Lombardy?rcs1000 said:
Italy could be ten millionn internet, and we could be 1-1.5 million.FrancisUrquhart said:
If it was millions, which I presume it is in Italy, our system would have crashed by now with the shear number of people requiring hospital treatment. It would have to be the iceberg of all icebergs and the UK to have somehow got ridiculously lucky with the majority of young people getting and not passed it on to oldies.rcs1000 said:
Or millions... In which case it might all be over rather sooner than anyone had expectedRobD said:
I really wish we knew precisely how many had it. Must be in the hundreds of thousands by now.tyson said:
I've been on conference calls today...and people have it....one law firm, they all had it......all coughing, fevers and feeling shocking....Pulpstar said:Apparently our confirmed case numbers are using tests that take 3 days whereas other places are on 4 hour testing ?
I spoke to someone else....coughing.,...
My sister...coughing.....
Her son...fever and coughing......0 -
I mean, I know we've tried 35 years of not taxing rich people but it seems to have a few problems. I say we try taxing rich people again.3
-
At least in the north of Italy, it has been said it is really high and if not the same house that the whole family often live very close to one another and culturally you go and eat etc with them.another_richard said:Does anyone know what proportion of Italian oldies share houses with younger generations ?
And how does that compare with other countries ?0
