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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is running
Call for comms overhaul comes after the astonishing Hancock u-turn on herd immunity, contradicting Vallance and No10 aidesMinisters admit that even they are now confused by that messaging…https://t.co/Vab9TTdn5v
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They have taken one word "expected" on a slide and blown it up...what did I say they would do if they saw any of the intern documentation.
Witty and co have previously talked about the 80%, and initially about 500,000 deaths (although they have since said their modelling suggests more like 100,000) and the Guardian also trying to claim that the government haven't said this will be about until next year. When again, the whole f##king strategy is based on the premise that this will come in waves.
Why the f##k don't you think we aren't just simply going to stay in our homes for 3 weeks and it be all done.
F##k me, these twats about in WWII, they spend their entire time banging on about just how badly the UK would suffer trying to fight the Nazis, rather than f##king help the country come together and try out best to win.
I think they are right that if they start this too early they will not succeed in keeping people indoors for the duration and this could lead to a second spike in cases. It seems rational to me. But then I’m not an expert in these matters.
I think the thread header is interesting, but is obviously also coloured by bias. I think at least 30% will oppose any Government on anything, because they are the core opposition that thinks its wicked.
It's the word. "Herd". What image does it conjure up in your mind? Perhaps one of sheep. Sheep are idiots. Or cattle. Cattle get slaughtered.
Herds are culled and most people do not want to be part of a cull. The very idea strikes fear into the hearts of the unwashed, loo-roll hoarding masses, who are suddenly made acutely aware of their own individual unimportance.
The question is what you re-brand the concept as. It's effectively a lottery where 97% of the population win, but sadly "national lottery" is already taken.
I absolutely despair at what is going on. If the egg heads had spent the past 2 weeks saying our modelling says 1% of people will get this and it will be 3 weeks and that's it, sure, clearly then the government have lied to us. In fact, they have done the f##king opposite and because they have been honest, they have been bashed from pillar to post and now bashed again.
No. Discredit the chief medical officer and chief scientist and you kill evidence based policy. That way lies chaos and death. It’s not a game. It’s pathetic and dangerous and should be called out.
If you hate Boris because of Brexit and are prepared to go for him because of that, have the decency to say it. This is too important to dick around.
Anne Hidalgo (PS) 30,2%
Rachida Dati (LR) 22
Agnès Buzyn (LRM) 17,6%.
In Grenobles: Green incumbent (backed rest of the left) 40%. Right is at 20.5%
In Stasbourg: Green candidate 26%. LR 20%
Lyon: Green 29% LR 16.7% LREM 14.9
Bordeaux: Green 35-36% LR 33-34%
Le Mans: Socialist incumbent 40% Left dissident 13%
Limoges: LR 46% Left 21%
Tolouse: LR 35% Greens 28% PS 18%
But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.
I notice that despite a bit of routine government bashing, the opposition has not developed a crisp and clear counter argument with any traction. Looking to the great chancelleries of Europe doesn't seem to be filling people with great ideas at the moment. It is still possible that the government's experts are as right as it can be at the moment.
Anything to win the twitter / media game and score points against the government.
I don't like Boris, I don't trust him on most things, but it is clear in this case he is just the passenger. Everything that is being done is driven the the likes of Witty, and there is zero suggestion he is just some Tory stooge.
What the government have actually done is been incredibly grown up and honest with the public. Lots of people will die, this is really bad and it isn't a flash in the pan. They could easily have given the full BS and said don't worry, 3-4 weeks lads and it will all be over with and look in China only 3000 people died total less than a bad flu season.
Peston 'reveals' a Gov't plan with tremendous glee.
Daily Mail doorsteps two sick Covid19 patients.
Guardian publishes Public Health Doc with the old "EXCLUSIVE" tag.
Having heard the news this afternoon my brother is suspected of having the virus, it's brought the whole thing closer to home as did the 60-strong queue outside Superdrug in East Ham who were allowed one bottle of hand sanitiser each.
I worry about the proposed enforced quarantine for those over 70. I understand the statistics but the realities are rather different. Age UK tell me 2 million people over 75 already live alone so my worry is out of sight will become out of mind.
The issue must be with those who have pre-existing medical conditions especially of a respiratory or pulmonary nature. Encouraging those individuals in particular to self-isolate would seem the more appropriate guidance rather than a blanket quarantine which will trap many perfectly healthy individuals who might be in a position to help within their communities.
I understand the theory of "herd immunity" - it's not without risk - and until now I've broadly understood and been supportive of the Government response but I now begin to sense control slipping away especially in the light of the ever more concerning reports from elsewhere.
My concerns remain as they have always done - first, those with pre-existing conditions who might not understand or appreciate the severity of the virus for them and second, the rush to self-isolate might cause certain key services to struggle on the basis of what turns out to be a normal cold or chill.
Judging from the above, contradictions between old and new advice on when to self-isolate risk causing confusion. I think a lot of people do not know what the most recent advice is. Constant changes to the advice are going to leave people confused, especially once we get different advice by age-band or risk-group. (Presumably this confusion is a disincentive for the government to keep changing its advice. I suspect it was a factor in why, for example, they only announced that 70+ shouldn't go on cruises well after this was obvious advice, because that way they could bring it in simultaneously with a whole slate of other new recommendations that effectively replaced the previous set, rather than having things change piecemeal in a way that's impossible to keep up with. If this is so then a down side is that the rational, self-interested individual should treat government advice with caution, since the "current" advice - e.g. during that period HMG deemed cruises for the 70+ not to be something they needed to avoid - may still be sub-optimal.)
There's also confusion about future potential advice and whether it applies yet. I don't think the media have reported very well about the stuff in the bill next week - I've met people who seem to believe some of those measures are coming into effect on Monday, rather than next week the relevant powers are being discussed in Parliament. Similarly, some people seem to think "avoid large gatherings" is already in force.
I've also found some simple stuff in the regular messaging has been misconstrued. Trying to get my 70+ mother ready for her "cocoon" period, turns out she thought it didn't matter there was no hand sanitiser in the local supermarket because she had got Aloe Vera hand moisturiser, which she assumed would kill all her germs!!
Anyone know how HMG are actually testing how well their messaging is getting through?
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/universal-music-lucian-grainge-coronavirus-tim-cook-madison-club-1203534933/
Prof Farage and Morgan can shut the f##k up, as can the jumped lab tech and MSc maths students. And the media shouldn't be spreading misinformation and always looking for talking heads to provide "balance" for / against what are some impossible decisions, when they haven't seen the data.
All this is just making the governments job even harder and killing more people.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Although TBF up until a few weeks ago, our PM thought that politics was a game, too.
Certain sections love to go on about how disgraceful the likes of the NOTW were over phone hacking and how they are purer than purer. Phone hacking was disgraceful, but this is war and 10,000s, possibly 100,000s will die. Finding out Steve Coogan is a drug taking possie shagger really hasn't harmed his career.
Every hour the government have to waste rebutting your stupid shit and also causing confusion and panic within the public, the more people will die.
This Gov't is a shitshower.
Tell us again how yersinia pestis is a virus.
The mortality of 1% will be exceeded when ICU capacity is saturated. At that point needless deaths occur both in COVID19 patients, but there will be a big effect on mortality on other conditions too. This summer will be no time to have a heart attack or major road traffic accident, or even appendicitis.
We have amongst the lowest ICU and hospital bed capacity in Europe, as well as levels of obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease in excess.
We are not going to get off lightly in secondary care, we need strong and stringent public health measures. Nothing else will work.
Of course they won't. 90%+ won't have the faintest idea of precisely what the Government's strategy is other than to "deal with it as best they can".
Of course that doesn't excuse the irresponsible journalism but as someone on here suggested yesterday - journalism is basically now entertainment.
Getting the details right won't make you successful commercially.
Certainly if there's anything with numbers in it then forget it as far as most of the population is concerned - it was reported yesterday that 75% of adults don't have basic numeracy skills which would be expected at GCSE.
Where are the hundreds of thousands of vCJD victims?
I would say right now it is pretty unclear and a worrying failure on the part of the Government.
They have one job as far as the medical actions are concerned and that is to make sure that the advice from the CMO and the other scientist is conveyed as clearly, as accurately and as simply as possible.
I would suggest they are failing on this at the moment.
https://spectator.us/fda-cdc-hhs-health-response-covid-19-coronavirus/
A now ironically resonant use of the word 'herd', in his interview from a few years ago.
"BBC News is “completely obsessed” by the agenda set by newspapers and follows the lead of the Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph too much, according to senior journalist Robert Peston.
The BBC’s economics editor, in a question-and-answer session after delivering the British Journalism Review Charles Wheeler lecture on Thursday evening, said he found this “most frustrating” and attributed it to a safety-first approach by programme editors. Peston, responding to questions about how he and the BBC decided which stories mattered to audiences, said: “It’s a challenge, the issue of the herd and pandering [to it]. Technology makes it much, much easier … to know what stories matter to people.”
The government, while sotto voce, has actually disclosed information from which a six year old without a calculator can deduce that it regards 100s of thousands of deaths (even 500,000+) as possible from its policies. I have not noticed any of the critics disclosing what they think are the deaths numbers in the worst case scenario of the alternatives. Remarkably the government, right or wrong (who knows) has acted with a relatively high degree of integrity and courage. Which, as Humphrey Appleby and Mr Meeks might comment, is very brave of them. I think they deserve support.
That's what they are doing. You have to wonder what these people were listening to when the CMO described why timing was critical for the introduction of additional restrictions.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that those two are actually the parents of Piers Morgan.
All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.
Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.
Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.
Tell us again how many snowstorms we were going to have last December?
And now for something lighter -
https://www.therichmondgolfclub.com/wartime-rules/
"A player whose stroke is affected by the simultaneous explosion of a bomb may play another ball from the same place. Penalty one stroke."
During the second world war, the government commissioned Mass Observation research on the home front. Maybe the government is or should be doing the same now to monitor how its messages and actions are being received. Ironically it is those who did not panic and who behaved responsibly who now find themselves without toilet paper or Coca-Cola.
https://twitter.com/RuthLeaEcon
And while we have these idiots, we also have the other lot that are close everything down now, all the schools straight away...even if that means all the medical staff can't go to work.
It failed as a strategy when times changed and desktops came along.
(If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).
He also fails to point out that anyone who can long term self isolate can do so right now if they wish and need no government order to do so. Which slightly destroys his point.
https://twitter.com/nicktimiraos/status/1239295384587055105?s=21
Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.
Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
People have said it is capacity and tying up front line medical staff to perform and process tests. I don't know if it is possible to use the army to take the samples of the "less" accurate version.
All of the above I think is a valid point to raise with the government, rather than spinning one word in a leaked slide into making it appear they have been dishonest in some way.
@stodge same for your brother!