Out of hours markets falling back from Friday’s recovery
Unsurprising given it was a big rise on Friday and the news since has been unremittingly bad. The panic rate cut just reinforces how bad things must be.
Indeed. The Dow is trading back around the level before Trump started his press conference. Still above Friday’s low point. For now.
Quick question re Italy and Spain lockdowns: do they have a list of jobs which are excluded? Health workers and emergency services obviously must be exempt but what about all those involved in formulating and executing policy? Also utility workers, farmers, vets, I could go on...?
It’s a little unclear about who can work, will know more in the morning as I go to the supermarket, vets open as are key utilities and technology providers, they won’t leave the crops to rot providing they still have a market. Clearly 95% of retail operations are shut. There are meetings between unions and management in a number of factories tomorrow. It’s hard to keep up hairdressers we’re excluded yesterday but included today.
I’m suffering from information overload it’s coming so thick and fast, I’m off to bed and will try to translate and understand it tomorrow.
I've always wondered why US press conferences are seemingly unable to take place without about 30 people standing behind the person giving it. Just one of those cultural differences I suppose.
Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.
The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
Design deadline is Wednesday, a good team on the case, a Liberty Ship, crude but idiot proof spec, or so my sources say.
Any idea who the design team are? Cross industry or the team that make them?
Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.
The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
Design deadline is Wednesday, a good team on the case, a Liberty Ship, crude but idiot proof spec, or so my sources say.
Any idea who the design team are? Cross industry or the team that make them?
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Also there isn't very much of the southern hemisphere; south of the tropics it's mainly sea. And it's further from the epicentre. And its (less numerous) inhabitants have different patterns of travel. And so on.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
They probably are saved by adequate supplies of hot broth.
The route in this Pandemic is from Wuhan to the ski slopes of Italy...and then Ryanair Bergamo to all the cheap flight routes in Europe-- Valencia and Madrid--
You have to hand it to that little microbe motherfucker that decided to upsticks from a bat or snake or some other live animal in the Wuhan market....and jump to a human....tough little shit.....survived that and then managed to get himself passed around the globe. Credit is where credit is due....
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Also there isn't very much of the southern hemisphere; south of the tropics it's mainly sea. And it's further from the epicentre. And its (less numerous) inhabitants have different patterns of travel. And so on.
There are hundreds of millions of people in Latin America and hundreds of millions of people in southern Africa and almost a billion people in India which is also closer to the equator and warmer than China, Europe or the USA and which is also not in the top 10 nations for coronavirus cases
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.
The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
Design deadline is Wednesday, a good team on the case, a Liberty Ship, crude but idiot proof spec, or so my sources say.
Any idea who the design team are? Cross industry or the team that make them?
Yes
;-)
I guess on one level it’s a pump and some valves? Though presumably the cpu you see connects to the ones in hospitals implies some sort of feedback loop and a veritable flow rate? How much does that bit matter?
Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.
The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
Design deadline is Wednesday, a good team on the case, a Liberty Ship, crude but idiot proof spec, or so my sources say.
Any idea who the design team are? Cross industry or the team that make them?
Yes
;-)
Ha fair play. Pretty much what I expected if you're going to get something done fast. The tricky part is going to be the ARDS machines. My anaesthetist mother-in-sin said they get them from Drager in Germany who are currently at full capacity for domestic orders. Not sure if they can get the license for a dedicated facility to make.
Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.
The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
Design deadline is Wednesday, a good team on the case, a Liberty Ship, crude but idiot proof spec, or so my sources say.
I can't wait to (hopefully) read the book on it in a few years, if it works. The stuff going on behind the scenes right now must be incredible.
Control the controllable. This is a huge thing moving at pace. You aren't in control of the virus or the government response or other people. You are in control of you. What can you do to manage your exposure to the virus and the economic risk?
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
UK doctor on recovering from 'grim' coronavirus A former chair of the Royal College of GPs has told Radio 5 Live Breakfast about how she's getting through a "grim" coronavirus experience.
An academic on R4 yesterday said she got through Covid 19 after contracting it in New York, though it was worse than any flu she had had before, she did not have any pre existing health conditions which helped
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Also there isn't very much of the southern hemisphere; south of the tropics it's mainly sea. And it's further from the epicentre. And its (less numerous) inhabitants have different patterns of travel. And so on.
There are hundreds of millions of people in Latin America and hundreds of millions of people in southern Africa and almost a billion people in India which is also closer to the equator and warmer than China, Europe or the USA and which is also not in the top 10 nations for coronavirus cases
And correlation is causation, and there are no such things as confounding factors.
UK doctor on recovering from 'grim' coronavirus A former chair of the Royal College of GPs has told Radio 5 Live Breakfast about how she's getting through a "grim" coronavirus experience.
An academic on R4 yesterday said she got through Covid 19 after contracting it in New York, though it was worse than any flu she had had before, she did not have any pre existing health conditions which helped
Nadine and her mum seem to have had it relatively easy
Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.
The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
Design deadline is Wednesday, a good team on the case, a Liberty Ship, crude but idiot proof spec, or so my sources say.
Any idea who the design team are? Cross industry or the team that make them?
Yes
;-)
Ha fair play. Pretty much what I expected if you're going to get something done fast. The tricky part is going to be the ARDS machines. My anaesthetist mother-in-sin said they get them from Drager in Germany who are currently at full capacity for domestic orders. Not sure if they can get the license for a dedicated facility to make.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Also there isn't very much of the southern hemisphere; south of the tropics it's mainly sea. And it's further from the epicentre. And its (less numerous) inhabitants have different patterns of travel. And so on.
There are hundreds of millions of people in Latin America and hundreds of millions of people in southern Africa and almost a billion people in India which is also closer to the equator and warmer than China, Europe or the USA and which is also not in the top 10 nations for coronavirus cases
And correlation is causation, and there are no such things as confounding factors.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Actually a bit of me wonders if a lot of the simpler ventilator components Like valves could be “crowd sourced” from a thousand different places?
Would that meet safety standards though? When it's literally life or death you can't really be half-arsing it with component supply.
Or, ugly thought: maybe we might have to. Do we accept vast numbers of slightly less reliable ventilators, versus going short? Going to be a lot of unpleasant decisions like that to be made ..... I really don't envy those having to make them.
"California orders mandatory isolation for over-65s
California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued sweeping new restrictions for the US state.
He's issued a compulsory isolation order for all residents aged 65 and above, and said the state is launching an effort to get get all homeless people indoors, in trailers and motels."
"California orders mandatory isolation for over-65s
California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued sweeping new restrictions for the US state.
He's issued a compulsory isolation order for all residents aged 65 and above, and said the state is launching an effort to get get all homeless people indoors, in trailers and motels."
Actually a bit of me wonders if a lot of the simpler ventilator components Like valves could be “crowd sourced” from a thousand different places?
Would that meet safety standards though? When it's literally life or death you can't really be half-arsing it with component supply.
Or, ugly thought: maybe we might have to. Do we accept vast numbers of slightly less reliable ventilators, versus going short? Going to be a lot of unpleasant decisions like that to be made ..... I really don't envy those having to make them.
Well if it was me needing it I'd rather have a possibly unsafe ventilator than none at all.
"California orders mandatory isolation for over-65s
California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued sweeping new restrictions for the US state.
He's issued a compulsory isolation order for all residents aged 65 and above, and said the state is launching an effort to get get all homeless people indoors, in trailers and motels."
How are they going to make that stick?
The police over there will surely be happy to have more targets to shoot.
Actually a bit of me wonders if a lot of the simpler ventilator components Like valves could be “crowd sourced” from a thousand different places?
Would that meet safety standards though? When it's literally life or death you can't really be half-arsing it with component supply.
Or, ugly thought: maybe we might have to. Do we accept vast numbers of slightly less reliable ventilators, versus going short? Going to be a lot of unpleasant decisions like that to be made ..... I really don't envy those having to make them.
Might be a problem that the evil globalisers have outsourced manufacturing of many small, low value components to foreign places.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Also there isn't very much of the southern hemisphere; south of the tropics it's mainly sea. And it's further from the epicentre. And its (less numerous) inhabitants have different patterns of travel. And so on.
There are hundreds of millions of people in Latin America and hundreds of millions of people in southern Africa and almost a billion people in India which is also closer to the equator and warmer than China, Europe or the USA and which is also not in the top 10 nations for coronavirus cases
I hear there are no confirmed cases on Venus, which is much closer to the Sun and also much hotter.
"Public face £1,000 fine or custody for refusing coronavirus tests and quarantine Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
Journalists in masks. Gasping old widows outside hospital
Grim. But probably effective
Yes, a pretty apocalyptic tone and I'm not sure always entirely helpful. The default setting of each international report seemed almost seemed to be the worst-case scenario would materialise in every country. When we still know so little, that is very dicey reporting.
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Let me interject with some good news for a moment.
All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.
Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.
Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.
That would be very good if true but why do you think that new infections and already falling in the UK ?
Firstly, remember reported new infections lag actual new infections by about 10 days. So, even if not a single new person got infected, you would still see almost two weeks of skyrocketing numbers.
Indeed, this is part of the problem. Measures are announced. New cases continue to climb. Panic!
But the reality is that there's a big time lag.
Secondly, the most important number is how many people does each infected person pass the disease on to?, and we'll call this number "R". This value of R is highest at the start because there is zero immunity, and no measures to slow or prevent its spread. At R was around 3.
With everyone washing their hands and avoiding touching their face... well, R probably dropped to 2.5. Each incremental step probably drop R a little bit. Simple social distancing probably gets it to (or slightly below) 1. Locking everyone up at home drops it to close to zero, but at great cost.
Put these together, and you have a situation where - while headlines will worsen for another couple of weeks - things are probably already improving.
The UK government's plan was simple - don't try and crush R to zero (which hammers the economy and probably leads to excess deaths for other reasons), instead put in place measures that will get it to around 1 - or ideally a bit below. It was a good plan. But the time lag is the killer (so to speak): people don't see their measures working, so they demand ever more draconian action. Even though that action is likely to cause more problems.
Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.
But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.
Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.
I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
I hope you come out the other end safe and sound, Foxy. I’m following that regime, too.
"Public face £1,000 fine or custody for refusing coronavirus tests and quarantine Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Isn’t Iran’s current weather fairly ‘British summer’ ?
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
"Public face £1,000 fine or custody for refusing coronavirus tests and quarantine Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
Journalists in masks. Gasping old widows outside hospital
Grim. But probably effective
Yes, a pretty apocalyptic tone and I'm not sure always entirely helpful. The default setting of each international report seemed almost seemed to be the worst-case scenario would materialise in every country. When we still know so little, that is very dicey reporting.
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Completely disagree. We need to frighten people into social distancing.
On this point, I do think you're right.
Hopefully, the panic buying can be kept under control though.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
Indeed. Compared to almost any period of history this event is a blip. The biggest issue is the effect on an economic system already on the edge post-2008.
"California orders mandatory isolation for over-65s
California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued sweeping new restrictions for the US state.
He's issued a compulsory isolation order for all residents aged 65 and above, and said the state is launching an effort to get get all homeless people indoors, in trailers and motels."
How are they going to make that stick?
Also all CA bars, pubs and clubs are closed, and restaurants have to reduce capacity by 50%
Journalists in masks. Gasping old widows outside hospital
Grim. But probably effective
Yes, a pretty apocalyptic tone and I'm not sure always entirely helpful. The default setting of each international report seemed almost seemed to be the worst-case scenario would materialise in every country. When we still know so little, that is very dicey reporting.
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Completely disagree. We need to frighten people into social distancing.
Fear easily gets out of control if you don't provide context. The sum total of the BBC News from around six countries seemed to be that the worst will materialise and there's nothing we can do about it. That's both factually shaky at this point and psychologically dangerous ; people will only engage positively if they feel they can still exert various levels of control over the situation, which the evidence so far shows they can.
I kinda know the government is doing the right thing when Farage is moaning like a whore and Carole Cadwalladr is having to delete crazy tweets on the government's approach.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that those two are actually the parents of Piers Morgan.
If Cadwalladr had access to a time machine I doubt going back in time to give birth to Piers Morgan would be top of her list of stupid things to do.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
Let me interject with some good news for a moment.
All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.
Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.
Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.
That would be very good if true but why do you think that new infections and already falling in the UK ?
Firstly, remember reported new infections lag actual new infections by about 10 days. So, even if not a single new person got infected, you would still see almost two weeks of skyrocketing numbers.
Indeed, this is part of the problem. Measures are announced. New cases continue to climb. Panic!
But the reality is that there's a big time lag.
Secondly, the most important number is how many people does each infected person pass the disease on to?, and we'll call this number "R". This value of R is highest at the start because there is zero immunity, and no measures to slow or prevent its spread. At R was around 3.
With everyone washing their hands and avoiding touching their face... well, R probably dropped to 2.5. Each incremental step probably drop R a little bit. Simple social distancing probably gets it to (or slightly below) 1. Locking everyone up at home drops it to close to zero, but at great cost.
Put these together, and you have a situation where - while headlines will worsen for another couple of weeks - things are probably already improving.
The UK government's plan was simple - don't try and crush R to zero (which hammers the economy and probably leads to excess deaths for other reasons), instead put in place measures that will get it to around 1 - or ideally a bit below. It was a good plan. But the time lag is the killer (so to speak): people don't see their measures working, so they demand ever more draconian action. Even though that action is likely to cause more problems.
Thanks, hope you're right.
There's also the aspect that most people interact with generally the same group of people - family, friends, work colleagues, neighbours - so R will fall as increasing numbers of the same people become infected.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
Let me interject with some good news for a moment.
All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.
Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.
Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.
That would be very good if true but why do you think that new infections and already falling in the UK ?
Firstly, remember reported new infections lag actual new infections by about 10 days. So, even if not a single new person got infected, you would still see almost two weeks of skyrocketing numbers.
Indeed, this is part of the problem. Measures are announced. New cases continue to climb. Panic!
But the reality is that there's a big time lag.
Secondly, the most important number is how many people does each infected person pass the disease on to?, and we'll call this number "R". This value of R is highest at the start because there is zero immunity, and no measures to slow or prevent its spread. At R was around 3.
With everyone washing their hands and avoiding touching their face... well, R probably dropped to 2.5. Each incremental step probably drop R a little bit. Simple social distancing probably gets it to (or slightly below) 1. Locking everyone up at home drops it to close to zero, but at great cost.
Put these together, and you have a situation where - while headlines will worsen for another couple of weeks - things are probably already improving.
The UK government's plan was simple - don't try and crush R to zero (which hammers the economy and probably leads to excess deaths for other reasons), instead put in place measures that will get it to around 1 - or ideally a bit below. It was a good plan. But the time lag is the killer (so to speak): people don't see their measures working, so they demand ever more draconian action. Even though that action is likely to cause more problems.
There’s still huge uncertainty, though. I don’t envy the government at all; it has fallen down on communication over the last week, but no doubt they will learn from that.
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1 ... Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus....
Journalists in masks. Gasping old widows outside hospital
Grim. But probably effective
Yes, a pretty apocalyptic tone and I'm not sure always entirely helpful. The default setting of each international report seemed almost seemed to be the worst-case scenario would materialise in every country. When we still know so little, that is very dicey reporting.
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Completely disagree. We need to frighten people into social distancing.
I don't always agree with you @eadric, but here I think this is not such a bad thing. Importantly, as Robert has stated, the informal social distancing that has already begun will help reduce R (e.g., the large number of cancelled conferences / football matches / cancelled flights from multiple areas with lots of infections). But anything that does this organically before the government imposes tougher restrictions later in the week is good I think.
I suggest watching the bulletin, JM. The tone wasn't "the situation is deadly serious, we now need to start to doing all we can" - and I accept measures may come on Tuesday - but "the pattern is set". That is quite dangerous for public morale in this situation.
"Public face £1,000 fine or custody for refusing coronavirus tests and quarantine Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
RIO?
Tinto. I think it bottomed out around 800 in the GFC, 1600 a few years back in the Chinese slowdown.
The economist (and paper reviewer) Ruth Lea was on Five Live just now and says she will refuse to self-isolate completely, and would prefer to end up in Holloway jail if they make it compulsory.
If you are in your early seventies and have a life expectancy of say 15 more years, some of which you can expect to spend in poor health, and aren't the type to wile away your days watching Countdown, might it be worth the risk from a selfish perspective?
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
The market as a whole has been sold down; the recovery will about picking businesses that have remained sustainable through the crisis - food retailers, online businesses, delivery services, pharmaceuticals - and avoid those worst affected - travel, hospitality, insurance
The medium term investment risk is a second wave of epidemic in the autumn/winter
Journalists in masks. Gasping old widows outside hospital
Grim. But probably effective
Yes, a pretty apocalyptic tone and I'm not sure always entirely helpful. The default setting of each international report seemed almost seemed to be the worst-case scenario would materialise in every country. When we still know so little, that is very dicey reporting.
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Completely disagree. We need to frighten people into social distancing.
Fear easily gets out of control if you don't provide context. The sum total of the BBC News from around six countries seemed to be that the worst will materialise and there's nothing we can do about it. That's both factually shaky at this point and psychologically dangerous ; people will only engage positively if they feel they can still exert control over the situation, which the evidence so far shows they can.
We had a guy on here earlier saying What the F, I'm still going to the pub, hooray for Scottish rugby, if it's bad we will cope, blah blah. FFS
It was nonsense and dangerous nonsense at that. What we need to do is scare these people. They are the superspreaders. I believe a period of intense fear would be good for everyone. Because this is properly scary.
I've been through my phase of intense fear. I have now stockpiled vitamins, sanitiser, and stoicism. This is what it is.
Fear has to have limits, and context - you must change your life urgently because of the danger of X and Y - and here's what can change if you do. That wasn't the tone of about half an hour of tonight's news.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
For the majority who survive, the financial and economic fallout will make the crash of 1929 look insignificant. The political fallout from the ensuing hardship could be reminiscent of the 1930s with extremists from the left and right offering simple solutions to complex problems.
How do we stop that? A suspension of democracy for significant time frames, who knows? Not a fan of Boris, although I would prefer him to be unopposed PM for 25 years than Yaxley-Lennon as PM for 25 seconds.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
RIO?
Tinto. I think it bottomed out around 800 in the GFC, 1600 a few years back in the Chinese slowdown.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
Journalists in masks. Gasping old widows outside hospital
Grim. But probably effective
Yes, a pretty apocalyptic tone and I'm not sure always entirely helpful. The default setting of each international report seemed almost seemed to be the worst-case scenario would materialise in every country. When we still know so little, that is very dicey reporting.
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Completely disagree. We need to frighten people into social distancing.
Sounds like you and your wife will be social distancing in the country or seaside from your daughter at school in North London.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
"Public face £1,000 fine or custody for refusing coronavirus tests and quarantine Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
The government, clearly. Because this is how they work. Managed "leaks".
I would much prefer it if, as others have said, they had a daily presser and simply and calmly gave this info. Done in a sober way it would have much more impact, and also have more authority.
Your wish has been made a reality...starting from tomorrow.
I said a while ago that the things that enable globalisation & capitalism, and people to profit from them, cheap air travel mainly, speed life up to an unnatural pace. There is always a price to pay. Maybe the spread of infectious disease is the bill for killing the planet.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
The market as a whole has been sold down; the recovery will about picking businesses that have remained sustainable through the crisis - food retailers, online businesses, delivery services, pharmaceuticals - and avoid those worst affected - travel, hospitality, insurance
The medium term investment risk is a second wave of epidemic in the autumn/winter
Insurance is an interesting one. While life and travel insurance will be big losers this year, the same companies will do well out of early ends to annuities, and future sales will mushroom. No one is going to travel "naked" again, and EHIC ends 1 Jan 2021.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
There’s still huge uncertainty, though. I don’t envy the government at all; it has fallen down on communication over the last week, but no doubt they will learn from that.
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimate https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1 ... Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus....
We don't know.
However, I am sceptical that the number is seven. I mean, it could be, but it's hard to reconcile a 33% daily slope and an R of 7, unless people are infectious for a long, long time. Or, alternatively, there are large numbers of people who are immune for one genetic reason or another. (Also, Japan and South Korea tend to cast doubt on it being 7.)
But even if it is 7, the reality is that we if reduce social interactions by 90% (which is what I've done, and I suspect I'm far from alone), then the virus's spread will slow dramatically and go into reverse.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
It's not you - feels like that to me too. Each new piece of news makes the previous one look trivial.
Still, consider the long-term positives:
- NHS will be better funded for years to come - Small-statism is a thing of the past - Welfare state to get a boost - Trump likely ejected in November - Neoliberals can f*ck-off for the foreseeable.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
With Boris as the leading character, it is more likely to be one of David Sullivan's low budget porno-comedies.
...so who would play Johnson in Coronavirus:The Movie. Obviously Benny Hill is no longer with us, so it has to be bumbling old porn star Ben Dover.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
We will soon learn not to be *flakey fuckers*. This is going to be a wake up call that will echo down the halls of human civilisation.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
Don't most pension funds gradually convert stock to cash in the five years leading up to the target retirement age?
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
For the majority who survive, the financial and economic fallout will make the crash of 1929 look insignificant. The political fallout from the ensuing hardship could be reminiscent of the 1930s with extremists from the left and right offering simple solutions to complex problems.
How do we stop that? A suspension of democracy for significant time frames, who knows? Not a fan of Boris, although I would prefer him to be unopposed PM for 25 years than Yaxley-Lennon as PM for 25 seconds.
The 1930s were a pretty good decade for the UK whereas the 1920s were dismal.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
It's not you - feels like that to me too. Each new piece of news makes the previous one look trivial.
Still, consider the long-term positives:
- NHS will be better funded for years to come - Small-statism is a thing of the past - Welfare state to get a boost - Trump likely ejected in November - Neoliberals can f*ck-off for the foreseeable.
It would be good to think that medical staff and care workers might be better appreciated financially as well.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
We will soon learn not to be *flakey fuckers*. This is going to be a wake up call that will echo down the halls of human civilisation.
A few years ago I was mocked as a ‘typical leave voter’ by people I worked with for allowing myself to consider out loud that HDTV could be just old tv pictures, and non HDTV old tv pictures made blurry by people wanting to sell HD... obviously not true, but not that different to the thinking that made apple make old phones play up so people would upgrade.
Now I wonder how we would be reacting to the Coronavirus outbreak numbers (infections and deaths) had the news channels been reporting influenza infections and deaths in the same way for the last decade.
Actually a bit of me wonders if a lot of the simpler ventilator components Like valves could be “crowd sourced” from a thousand different places?
Would that meet safety standards though? When it's literally life or death you can't really be half-arsing it with component supply.
Or, ugly thought: maybe we might have to. Do we accept vast numbers of slightly less reliable ventilators, versus going short? Going to be a lot of unpleasant decisions like that to be made ..... I really don't envy those having to make them.
That’s my thinking. Presumably at some stage it’s better to use ACME Inc kit that has a 70% chance of working that use nothing. There’s a liability issue mind.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Isn’t Iran’s current weather fairly ‘British summer’ ?
Iran is a less developed country than we are with a less effective health service than we have and it is also winter there, Iran will also likely benefit once the Iranian summer arrives
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
For the majority who survive, the financial and economic fallout will make the crash of 1929 look insignificant. The political fallout from the ensuing hardship could be reminiscent of the 1930s with extremists from the left and right offering simple solutions to complex problems.
How do we stop that? A suspension of democracy for significant time frames, who knows? Not a fan of Boris, although I would prefer him to be unopposed PM for 25 years than Yaxley-Lennon as PM for 25 seconds.
The 1930s were a pretty good decade for the UK whereas the 1920s were dismal.
I was thinking more of Central, Southern and Eastern Europe.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
For the majority who survive, the financial and economic fallout will make the crash of 1929 look insignificant. The political fallout from the ensuing hardship could be reminiscent of the 1930s with extremists from the left and right offering simple solutions to complex problems.
How do we stop that? A suspension of democracy for significant time frames, who knows? Not a fan of Boris, although I would prefer him to be unopposed PM for 25 years than Yaxley-Lennon as PM for 25 seconds.
The 1930s were a pretty good decade for the UK whereas the 1920s were dismal.
Very true. For large parts of the UK, the 1930s were a boom time..
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
It's not you - feels like that to me too. Each new piece of news makes the previous one look trivial.
Still, consider the long-term positives:
- NHS will be better funded for years to come - Small-statism is a thing of the past - Welfare state to get a boost - Trump likely ejected in November - Neoliberals can f*ck-off for the foreseeable.
It would be good to think that medical staff and care workers might be better appreciated financially as well.
God yes, let's hope so.
Maybe some of the super-wealthy will be made to cough up a bit more to aid the government coffers too.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
For some fortuitous reason that I do not know...I took a whack of cash out of the markets in December and paid off my debts.....
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Stocks and real estate prices only matter when you are buying or selling, during the time in between it is worth ignoring paper gains and losses.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
RIO?
Tinto. I think it bottomed out around 800 in the GFC, 1600 a few years back in the Chinese slowdown.
Cheers. Interesting choice of bellwhether.
It is the biggest and cheapest producer of Iron ore, and China the biggest customer. It was pretty in debt a couple of years back, but has largely cleared that.
ANTO is another one to watch, the most stable copper producer in the world, and the green revolution will need lots of copper. I will buy if it goes below 400.
Comments
;-)
You have to hand it to that little microbe motherfucker that decided to upsticks from a bat or snake or some other live animal in the Wuhan market....and jump to a human....tough little shit.....survived that and then managed to get himself passed around the globe. Credit is where credit is due....
Capitalism is fucked for now..it relies on people working and spending in the real economy.....
One man band - He tries not to push any particular line - but tonight he is losing his shit over the latest press conference
"dereliction of duty / people are going to die"
"don't rely on this administration to keep you safe"
BROTH.
I've still lost a lot....well not lost because I never had it.....but you know what I mean....
The stocks have further to fall.....who the fuck knows where this is heading? China and the East will emerge as the global powerhouses in my opinion....
Or, ugly thought: maybe we might have to. Do we accept vast numbers of slightly less reliable ventilators, versus going short? Going to be a lot of unpleasant decisions like that to be made ..... I really don't envy those having to make them.
"California orders mandatory isolation for over-65s
California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued sweeping new restrictions for the US state.
He's issued a compulsory isolation order for all residents aged 65 and above, and said the state is launching an effort to get get all homeless people indoors, in trailers and motels."
How are they going to make that stick?
We must accelerate global warming, immediately.
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/CA
Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
(£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/15/public-face-prison-1000-fine-refusing-coronavirus-tests/
A lot of the media needs to think a bit more carefully about its role, I think - and I don't mean resorting to propaganda, but not mistaking an easy single narrative for being responsible and sober.
Indeed, this is part of the problem. Measures are announced. New cases continue to climb. Panic!
But the reality is that there's a big time lag.
Secondly, the most important number is how many people does each infected person pass the disease on to?, and we'll call this number "R". This value of R is highest at the start because there is zero immunity, and no measures to slow or prevent its spread. At R was around 3.
With everyone washing their hands and avoiding touching their face... well, R probably dropped to 2.5. Each incremental step probably drop R a little bit. Simple social distancing probably gets it to (or slightly below) 1. Locking everyone up at home drops it to close to zero, but at great cost.
Put these together, and you have a situation where - while headlines will worsen for another couple of weeks - things are probably already improving.
The UK government's plan was simple - don't try and crush R to zero (which hammers the economy and probably leads to excess deaths for other reasons), instead put in place measures that will get it to around 1 - or ideally a bit below. It was a good plan. But the time lag is the killer (so to speak): people don't see their measures working, so they demand ever more draconian action. Even though that action is likely to cause more problems.
I’m following that regime, too.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.
I normally buy to keep long term, but sold 90% Early Feb, when it was clear what was coming. I started cautiously bargain hunting late on Thursday.
My weathervane is RIO. When it goes sub 2000 we are near the bottom.
Hopefully, the panic buying can be kept under control though.
There's also the aspect that most people interact with generally the same group of people - family, friends, work colleagues, neighbours - so R will fall as increasing numbers of the same people become infected.
The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1
... Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus....
The medium term investment risk is a second wave of epidemic in the autumn/winter
How do we stop that? A suspension of democracy for significant time frames, who knows? Not a fan of Boris, although I would prefer him to be unopposed PM for 25 years than Yaxley-Lennon as PM for 25 seconds.
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
However, I am sceptical that the number is seven. I mean, it could be, but it's hard to reconcile a 33% daily slope and an R of 7, unless people are infectious for a long, long time. Or, alternatively, there are large numbers of people who are immune for one genetic reason or another. (Also, Japan and South Korea tend to cast doubt on it being 7.)
But even if it is 7, the reality is that we if reduce social interactions by 90% (which is what I've done, and I suspect I'm far from alone), then the virus's spread will slow dramatically and go into reverse.
Still, consider the long-term positives:
- NHS will be better funded for years to come
- Small-statism is a thing of the past
- Welfare state to get a boost
- Trump likely ejected in November
- Neoliberals can f*ck-off for the foreseeable.
...so who would play Johnson in Coronavirus:The Movie. Obviously Benny Hill is no longer with us, so it has to be bumbling old porn star Ben Dover.
Now I wonder how we would be reacting to the Coronavirus outbreak numbers (infections and deaths) had the news channels been reporting influenza infections and deaths in the same way for the last decade.
Maybe some of the super-wealthy will be made to cough up a bit more to aid the government coffers too.
ANTO is another one to watch, the most stable copper producer in the world, and the green revolution will need lots of copper. I will buy if it goes below 400.