I still think people are underestimating how much of a de facto “lockdown” we’ve already got in place by people choosing to do it themselves. I think that’s part of the game.
It definitely is, most office workers that I know will be WFH from the end of the week.
A few years ago I was mocked as a ‘typical leave voter’ by people I worked with for allowing myself to consider out loud that HDTV could be just old tv pictures, and non HDTV old tv pictures made blurry by people wanting to sell HD... obviously not true, but not that different to the thinking that made apple make old phones play up so people would upgrade.
Now I wonder how we would be reacting to the Coronavirus outbreak numbers (infections and deaths) had the news channels been reporting influenza infections and deaths in the same way for the last decade.
Why is that even a point? First COVID is much more infectious and much more lethal than flu, and secondly it is not the current numbers but the trend and the likely future numbers which concern people. Hey, you think you have got a big number, but here's another big number of slightly different things, invites the response, so what? Were you sitting there on 9/11 pointing out that as many people die in car crashes every single day?
Wow you can read me like a book, that’s just what I did on 9/11
But it just strikes me that the people dying from this disease could be replacing those who would have died from flu or pneumonia, nearly all being old, vulnerable and ill, rather than being additional deaths. Try not to get a hard on about it!
Please don't accuse me, disgustingly, of "getting a hard on" about it. And you are just wrong on the numbers. There will be excess deaths, they will not all be old, they won't all be of coronavirus - the evidence from Italy is boringly unambiguous on all those points. If you don't mind about any of that, fine, but don't expect a medal for it.
Ive already done it
In fact my original question was; would we be reacting to the numbers shown on the news and twitter everyday if the same attention were paid to influenza and pneumonia every winter for the last decade? No more than that. You seem to have misunderstood and gone off on one about something else.
I thought you were making a point about something.
Yes, I was saying that if every death and infection from disease has been reported this way for the last ten years, people might be reacting differently to how they are now.
Plus cars would have been banned if they had been doing it on traffic deaths.
I agree with you on this. The point that Robert is making is that left unchecked the Coronavirus would kill millions given its apparent exponential growth and hence the difference.
We do not know and thank goodness no one will carry out a control trial to see if it actually would.
I hate to mention it, but there seems to be a divide where older and/or more conservative people are less concerned about the virus, whereas younger and more left-wing people are more concerned about it. I can't explain why that would be. This seems to particularly be the case in the United States.
Leadership, shorely?
Trump signalled to his tribe early on that it was a liberal hoax. Johnson has got a much more mild case of what Trump has got. He officially backed the CMO etc but he also sent out little signals that it was nothing to worry about, like pretending he shook hands with infected people.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
While there is a theoretical reason for long term ibuprofen use to up regulate the numbers of ACE2 receptor sites, the viral binding site, on lung tissue, this is not proven to be clinically significant.
There is good reason to believe that ibuprofen helps down regulate the runaway inflammatory response in COVID19.
It may be swings and roundabouts, but at present no evidence that in a clinical situation ibuprofen is either bad or good.
This is the sort of thing that we may know better if there ever is a further outbreak.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Given the first case in Australia was the same day as the first case in Europe your sarcasm is misplaced.
Given the fact that the first case in Australia was on the very same day as the first case in China you have conclusively won this argument.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Given the first case in Australia was the same day as the first case in Europe your sarcasm is misplaced.
Given the fact that the first case in Australia was on the very same day as the first case in China you have conclusively won this argument.
That can't be right, surely? The first case in China was the start of the outbreak.
Anecdote: Austrian Tyrol is in lockdown. In order to leave, and get passed police roadblocks on the main roads, one had to prove that you were a tourist and heading straight home.
It is ironic: Boris the quintessentially lightweight PM has taken power at the most serious moment, in British peacetime politics, for a century or more.
Many forthcoming retirements are going to be ruined by the coronavirus. A lot of comfortable pension pots no longer will be. That in itself will be a huge challenge for the government.
Don't most pension funds gradually convert stock to cash in the five years leading up to the target retirement age?
Public sector fatcat pensioners would not appreciate this.
Public sector fatcat pensioners are generally on defined benefit schemes and the issue doesn't arise. "Lifestyle" pension funds are specifically a private sector befined contribution style thing.
Those of us facing redundancy in the next few months even without this crisis, at an age when finding new employment is challenging enough without a new recession, are more than slightly worried that our pension pots have been decimated.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
While there is a theoretical reason for long term ibuprofen use to up regulate the numbers of ACE2 receptor sites, the viral binding site, on lung tissue, this is not proven to be clinically significant.
There is good reason to believe that ibuprofen helps down regulate the runaway inflammatory response in COVID19.
It may be swings and roundabouts, but at present no evidence that in a clinical situation ibuprofen is either bad or good.
This is the sort of thing that we may know better if there ever is a further outbreak.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Given the first case in Australia was the same day as the first case in Europe your sarcasm is misplaced.
Given the fact that the first case in Australia was on the very same day as the first case in China you have conclusively won this argument.
That can't be right, surely? The first case in China was the start of the outbreak.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
Yes its especially concerning for people who have autoimmune diseases like my wife that regularly take these medicines. We have decided not to leave the flat at all now except for food Shopping (and in any case I expect France to go full lock down restricted movement any day now). What is strange about this latest announcement is that there have also been reports that another drug used to treat autoimmune diseases (Actemra/toczimilaub) has had positive effects in patients with sever symptoms.
50,000 seems optimistic to me, but OBVIOUSLY I hope you are right.
Where we agree is the ability of this disease to destabilise regimes. Iran looks very wobbly. Who knows how America reacts to mass death - more right wing or less?
China? - it depends if the disease rebounds. The EU as a political entity is going to take a major hit as Free Movement wilts. It may slowly disintegrate, as the migrant crisis adds to the pressure.
In the UK, Scottish independence will look like a ridiculous distraction for several years, maybe decades. Brexit will seem a pointless waste of precious time and energy. Boris will get another wife, and have another baby.
To come back to my earlier post.
There's a massive time lag between actions and reported cases. If you look at the numbers from Hubei, actual new infections started dropping 12 days before reported new infections.
And the problem is that we're staring into the rear view mirror: "My god, this isn't working, we need to do MORE".
Because the time lag between infection and diagnosis is so long, we won't see any benefits from the measures of the last few weeks until (probably) the end of this coming week.
But come the beginning of April, the number of new cases reported will be falling meaningfully everywhere in Europe, and the US probably won't be far behind.
Again, look at this chart from Hubei - it's absolutely crucial to understanding this:
Beginning of April seems early - why all the talk of 4 months of lockdown ?
You probably need 14 days of serious lockdown, followed by six to eight weeks of diminishing restrictions.
Agreed; I think I'd go 28 days for the serious lockdown (the period you can infect is still a bit unclear, so better be longer in the first phase) then start opening up a little - a few shops / offices to begin with and then schools later on in the process.
I wouldn't go lockdown nationally, just in outbreak areas. Basingstoke may need it, but Andover not. And revise fairly frequently, as informed by widespread swabbing in primary and secondary care of all symptomatic patients, with contact tracing.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
Yes its especially concerning for people who have autoimmune diseases like my wife that regularly take these medicines. We have decided not to leave the flat at all now except for food Shopping (and in any case I expect France to go full lock down restricted movement any day now). What is strange about this latest announcement is that there have also been reports that another drug used to treat autoimmune diseases (Actemra/toczimilaub) has had positive effects in patients with sever symptoms.
I don't post tweets of randos claiming stuff like this, but obviously this is a health minister in the French government.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Given the first case in Australia was the same day as the first case in Europe your sarcasm is misplaced.
Given the fact that the first case in Australia was on the very same day as the first case in China you have conclusively won this argument.
That can't be right, surely? The first case in China was the start of the outbreak.
Kind of the point I was trying to make.
I'm probably being incredibly dense and just can't see the point you are making.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
While there is a theoretical reason for long term ibuprofen use to up regulate the numbers of ACE2 receptor sites, the viral binding site, on lung tissue, this is not proven to be clinically significant.
There is good reason to believe that ibuprofen helps down regulate the runaway inflammatory response in COVID19.
It may be swings and roundabouts, but at present no evidence that in a clinical situation ibuprofen is either bad or good.
This is the sort of thing that we may know better if there ever is a further outbreak.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
While there is a theoretical reason for long term ibuprofen use to up regulate the numbers of ACE2 receptor sites, the viral binding site, on lung tissue, this is not proven to be clinically significant.
There is good reason to believe that ibuprofen helps down regulate the runaway inflammatory response in COVID19.
It may be swings and roundabouts, but at present no evidence that in a clinical situation ibuprofen is either bad or good.
This is the sort of thing that we may know better if there ever is a further outbreak.
And gin?
I am teetotal utill this thing is over.
I have to say other than my hands are cracked to hell, I am eating better, no drinking and sleeping a lot more than I usually do (I normally live on 5hrs a night).
I still think people are underestimating how much of a de facto “lockdown” we’ve already got in place by people choosing to do it themselves. I think that’s part of the game.
I agree with this. My firm has just announced that we are effectively closing our offices from Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be two mass trials of our new remote working capabilities (basically do we have enough bandwidth to cope). We've also converted all external client meetings to conference calls.
The two company Boards I'm meant to be speaking to this week have taken this news very calmly; it seems their NEDs have already agreed to dial in (I'm unclear whose idea this was but given their ages, it seems very sensible). Many of my other clients and wider contacts also seem to have taken similar steps.
It also fits well with the apparent government policy of trailing every new measure a few days in advance, which helps people get used to the idea before they have to do it, and means there's a good chance of people taking the steps voluntarily rather than being forced. Sort of like the boiling frog approach.
Like Kuennsberg, Peston is another who always has to pre-empt the government, just to show how good his connections are. Why can't he shut up and wait like the rest of us? If Boris has a medium term plan, and I assume he has, it is likely to work out a whole lot better if the media lets him plan and execute it, unhindered.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
We will soon learn not to be *flakey fuckers*. This is going to be a wake up call that will echo down the halls of human civilisation.
Even if the reset button is pressed tomorrow this has already been the biggest event of my lifetime a multiple times over....
History now will define whether it hits the mark of WW1, WW2 os the Spanish Flu...the three most significant developments since mankind globalised....or if it exceeds those we will have to look back to the Black Death...and to be honest it could exceed that....and then what do we compare this with???
Almost impossible to say. Right now I'd say it's potentially up there with World War 1. Not civilisation ending, by any means, but Fuck, it's Big.
Could bring down several regimes (as did WW1). Iran for a start. The Tsarist Russia of Corona.
It will definitely bring down a couple of regimes.
But World War One levels?
In the UK, 700,000 people died in World War One. That's about 1.4 million people in today's money (inflation, huh?) And these were young people.
COVID-19 could kill 700,000 people in the UK, although I suspect the number will end up being an order of magnitude less. And those that will die will mostly be those most at risk from other disorders. So, we might be looking at 50,000 excess deaths. Really, really major. A significant uptick in the death rate.
But not like lopping off 1.4 million young people.
50,000 seems optimistic to me, but OBVIOUSLY I hope you are right.
Where we agree is the ability of this disease to destabilise regimes. Iran looks very wobbly. Who knows how America reacts to mass death - more right wing or less?
China? - it depends if the disease rebounds. The EU as a political entity is going to take a major hit as Free Movement wilts. It may slowly disintegrate, as the migrant crisis adds to the pressure.
In the UK, Scottish independence will look like a ridiculous distraction for several years, maybe decades. Brexit will seem a pointless waste of precious time and energy. Boris will get another wife, and have another baby.
To come to your comments by country...
China. It will be interesting to see the PMIs from China in a couple of weeks time. My guess is that it will probably show economic activity bouncing back somewhat as restrictions are slowly lifted. The country won't be firing on all cylinders, but it won't be collapsing. China's real problems are elsewhere: misallocated capital, a shadow lending sector, etc. But for now... I think they probably get away with it.
The EU. I think this probably continues the view (from the Italians) that they are ignored and unloved by Brussels. The slight problem they will have is that an increasing proportion of Italian government debt is owned by the ECB. And the more that's owned in Frankfurt, the less leverage the Italian government has. Still, it will probably end with a populist Italian leading Italy out of the Eurozone and the EU. Whether that works out for Italy or not is another matter altogether.
The US. Well, this one is a toughy. I think the long term consequence of COVID-19 is universal healthcare. However, it's kind of forgotten, but the US (even before COVID-19) was running Corbynomics. Their budget deficit, at the fag end of an economic expansion, was 5%. Before COVID-19. At some point there will need to be a rebalancing there.. But when?
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
While there is a theoretical reason for long term ibuprofen use to up regulate the numbers of ACE2 receptor sites, the viral binding site, on lung tissue, this is not proven to be clinically significant.
There is good reason to believe that ibuprofen helps down regulate the runaway inflammatory response in COVID19.
It may be swings and roundabouts, but at present no evidence that in a clinical situation ibuprofen is either bad or good.
This is the sort of thing that we may know better if there ever is a further outbreak.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
Yes its especially concerning for people who have autoimmune diseases like my wife that regularly take these medicines. We have decided not to leave the flat at all now except for food Shopping (and in any case I expect France to go full lock down restricted movement any day now). What is strange about this latest announcement is that there have also been reports that another drug used to treat autoimmune diseases (Actemra/toczimilaub) has had positive effects in patients with sever symptoms.
I don't post tweets of randos claiming stuff like this, but obviously this is a health minister in the French government.
Hmmm....most people's go to for flu / headache / temperature is ibuprofen. Again, I hope this is raised with the egg-heads and if correct it really needs widely disseminating as most people will instinctively use it.
Yes its especially concerning for people who have autoimmune diseases like my wife that regularly take these medicines. We have decided not to leave the flat at all now except for food Shopping (and in any case I expect France to go full lock down restricted movement any day now). What is strange about this latest announcement is that there have also been reports that another drug used to treat autoimmune diseases (Actemra/toczimilaub) has had positive effects in patients with sever symptoms.
I don't post tweets of randos claiming stuff like this, but obviously this is a health minister in the French government.
A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a US government official.
The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet.
The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at a Kaiser Permanente research facility in Washington state, the official said.
I am surprised no one has written an alternative history thread header as to what would be happening differently if Corbyn had won Decembers GE
Look, he’s been very clear, he opposes viruses in all their forms. He has fought them all his life, albeit with the use of quack medicine. He’d have been present in COBR, on weekdays between nine and five, just not necessarily involved.
A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a US government official.
The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet.
The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at a Kaiser Permanente research facility in Washington state, the official said.
Why? What's happening in America? Is there an election or something to take our minds off Corona viruses? It will be interesting to see if health dominates the debate and if it is spun against Trump rather than each other.
A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a US government official.
The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet.
The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at a Kaiser Permanente research facility in Washington state, the official said.
A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a US government official.
The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet.
The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at a Kaiser Permanente research facility in Washington state, the official said.
Not very quickly, I imagine. Even so it's gobsmacking that they've already got at least one candidate vaccine to test (and probably a lot more coming).
Why? What's happening in America? Is there an election or something to take our minds off Corona viruses? It will be interesting to see if health dominates the debate and if it is spun against Trump rather than each other.
I am surprised no one has written an alternative history thread header as to what would be happening differently if Corbyn had won Decembers GE
Look, he’s been very clear, he opposes viruses in all their forms. He has fought them all his life, albeit with the use of quack medicine. He’d have been present in COBR, on weekdays between nine and five, just not necessarily involved.
I am strangely relaxed about it all. I surprise myself.
I admire your calmness, especially as you are in the front line.
I feel a degree of fatalism about it personally. We all knew a pandemic was coming; this seems to be much less virulent than some of the imagined possibilities.
Surprising to me is the apparent fragility of our social and economic world in the face of potentially <1% global fatalities.</p>
That was always the problem....our reaction to a global issue...decades of peace and prosperity have turned us into flakey fuckers.....
Is it me...or is this like some 70's disaster movie full of tension....the teleprinter....ratatattat...cut to California.....65's isolated indoors.....cut to Madrid....army mobilised to keep public inside...cut to Milan...400 dead in one day.....ratatattat...cut to UK and Boris Johnson..at that point it turns into a Carry on Movie....
We will soon learn not to be *flakey fuckers*. This is going to be a wake up call that will echo down the halls of human civilisation.
Even if the reset button is pressed tomorrow this has already been the biggest event of my lifetime a multiple times over....
History now will define whether it hits the mark of WW1, WW2 os the Spanish Flu...the three most significant developments since mankind globalised....or if it exceeds those we will have to look back to the Black Death...and to be honest it could exceed that....and then what do we compare this with???
Almost impossible to say. Right now I'd say it's potentially up there with World War 1. Not civilisation ending, by any means, but Fuck, it's Big.
Could bring down several regimes (as did WW1). Iran for a start. The Tsarist Russia of Corona.
It will definitely bring down a couple of regimes.
But World War One levels?
In the UK, 700,000 people died in World War One. That's about 1.4 million people in today's money (inflation, huh?) And these were young people.
COVID-19 could kill 700,000 people in the UK, although I suspect the number will end up being an order of magnitude less. And those that will die will mostly be those most at risk from other disorders. So, we might be looking at 50,000 excess deaths. Really, really major. A significant uptick in the death rate.
But not like lopping off 1.4 million young people.
50,000 seems optimistic to me, but OBVIOUSLY I hope you are right.
Where we agree is the ability of this disease to destabilise regimes. Iran looks very wobbly. Who knows how America reacts to mass death - more right wing or less?
China? - it depends if the disease rebounds. The EU as a political entity is going to take a major hit as Free Movement wilts. It may slowly disintegrate, as the migrant crisis adds to the pressure.
In the UK, Scottish independence will look like a ridiculous distraction for several years, maybe decades. Brexit will seem a pointless waste of precious time and energy. Boris will get another wife, and have another baby.
To come to your comments by country...
China. It will be interesting to see the PMIs from China in a couple of weeks time. My guess is that it will probably show economic activity bouncing back somewhat as restrictions are slowly lifted. The country won't be firing on all cylinders, but it won't be collapsing. China's real problems are elsewhere: misallocated capital, a shadow lending sector, etc. But for now... I think they probably get away with it.
The EU. I think this probably continues the view (from the Italians) that they are ignored and unloved by Brussels. The slight problem they will have is that an increasing proportion of Italian government debt is owned by the ECB. And the more that's owned in Frankfurt, the less leverage the Italian government has. Still, it will probably end with a populist Italian leading Italy out of the Eurozone and the EU. Whether that works out for Italy or not is another matter altogether.
The US. Well, this one is a toughy. I think the long term consequence of COVID-19 is universal healthcare. However, it's kind of forgotten, but the US (even before COVID-19) was running Corbynomics. Their budget deficit, at the fag end of an economic expansion, was 5%. Before COVID-19. At some point there will need to be a rebalancing there.. But when?
Corbyn's plans, realistic or not, weren't Trumps. Trump has enacted massive tax cuts and splurged enormously on military spending, rather than public infrastructural spending.
I've been very concerned by the virus growth since mid January, but I fear that wider panic is setting in too early and too suddenly.
Governments across Europe seem to be closing down their economies with the hope of lancing the boil quickly. This seems at odds with the Hong Kong / Japan approach of reducing R0 through more measured social distancing policies.
Proportionately is important here, as the war won't be won over a few weeks. This is for reasons related to epidemiology (the risk of a worse second wave in the winter, like the Spanish Flu), to the economy (deep recessions can result in many excess deaths too), and to the real human impact of isolation and missed education/employment.
I suspect that a lot of the 'lock everything down' crew are those had no worries about the virus when its very real risk became obvious 2 month's ago. They understand that they are at risk now, but not the nature of viruses; and they think we'll be over the hill in a matter of weeks after lockdown. They don't realise lockdown type conditions might last months, and that they may have to do it all over again in 6 month's time.
The UK's policy raises some questions in the detail, but I think we'll be on the right side of history in 12 months time (compared to most) if we continue with our incremental approach.
China. It will be interesting to see the PMIs from China in a couple of weeks time. My guess is that it will probably show economic activity bouncing back somewhat as restrictions are slowly lifted. The country won't be firing on all cylinders, but it won't be collapsing. China's real problems are elsewhere: misallocated capital, a shadow lending sector, etc. But for now... I think they probably get away with it.
It could be pretty big energy, everybody's been running down their stocks during the lockdown, as soon as people can get back in the factories it'll be full speed ahead.
50,000 seems optimistic to me, but OBVIOUSLY I hope you are right.
Where we agree is the ability of this disease to destabilise regimes. Iran looks very wobbly. Who knows how America reacts to mass death - more right wing or less?
China? - it depends if the disease rebounds. The EU as a political entity is going to take a major hit as Free Movement wilts. It may slowly disintegrate, as the migrant crisis adds to the pressure.
In the UK, Scottish independence will look like a ridiculous distraction for several years, maybe decades. Brexit will seem a pointless waste of precious time and energy. Boris will get another wife, and have another baby.
To come back to my earlier post.
There's a massive time lag between actions and reported cases. If you look at the numbers from Hubei, actual new infections started dropping 12 days before reported new infections.
And the problem is that we're staring into the rear view mirror: "My god, this isn't working, we need to do MORE".
Because the time lag between infection and diagnosis is so long, we won't see any benefits from the measures of the last few weeks until (probably) the end of this coming week.
But come the beginning of April, the number of new cases reported will be falling meaningfully everywhere in Europe, and the US probably won't be far behind.
Again, look at this chart from Hubei - it's absolutely crucial to understanding this:
Beginning of April seems early - why all the talk of 4 months of lockdown ?
You probably need 14 days of serious lockdown, followed by six to eight weeks of diminishing restrictions.
Agreed; I think I'd go 28 days for the serious lockdown (the period you can infect is still a bit unclear, so better be longer in the first phase) then start opening up a little - a few shops / offices to begin with and then schools later on in the process.
I wouldn't go lockdown nationally, just in outbreak areas. Basingstoke may need it, but Andover not. And revise fairly frequently, as informed by widespread swabbing in primary and secondary care of all symptomatic patients, with contact tracing.
Just out of interest do we know much about the Basingstoke outbreak? I'm due to see a few people there early this week that I may not mind a reason to skip.
50,000 seems optimistic to me, but OBVIOUSLY I hope you are right.
Where we agree is the ability of this disease to destabilise regimes. Iran looks very wobbly. Who knows how America reacts to mass death - more right wing or less?
China? - it depends if the disease rebounds. The EU as a political entity is going to take a major hit as Free Movement wilts. It may slowly disintegrate, as the migrant crisis adds to the pressure.
In the UK, Scottish independence will look like a ridiculous distraction for several years, maybe decades. Brexit will seem a pointless waste of precious time and energy. Boris will get another wife, and have another baby.
To come back to my earlier post.
There's a massive time lag between actions and reported cases. If you look at the numbers from Hubei, actual new infections started dropping 12 days before reported new infections.
And the problem is that we're staring into the rear view mirror: "My god, this isn't working, we need to do MORE".
Because the time lag between infection and diagnosis is so long, we won't see any benefits from the measures of the last few weeks until (probably) the end of this coming week.
But come the beginning of April, the number of new cases reported will be falling meaningfully everywhere in Europe, and the US probably won't be far behind.
Again, look at this chart from Hubei - it's absolutely crucial to understanding this:
Beginning of April seems early - why all the talk of 4 months of lockdown ?
You probably need 14 days of serious lockdown, followed by six to eight weeks of diminishing restrictions.
Agreed; I think I'd go 28 days for the serious lockdown (the period you can infect is still a bit unclear, so better be longer in the first phase) then start opening up a little - a few shops / offices to begin with and then schools later on in the process.
Yes, I'd agree with that. Is this what HMG is doing?
Close down everything now. As they are doing across Europe. If nothing else it will have a salutary effect on the populace, saying: Take This Bloody Seriously. Wash Your Hands. Do Not Hug. There Is No Vaccine.
But this cannot be sustained, or the economy is screwed (and even more suffer or die). Then slowly reduce restrictions for less vulnerable groups? As herd immunity develops.
There are no good choices. We are gainsaying experts. But this seems a reasonable middle course
It is ironic: Boris the quintessentially lightweight PM has taken power at the most serious moment, in British peacetime politics, for a century or more.
This is where we are. Goodnight PB!
Boris will be in power for a century or more? Whoa!
China. It will be interesting to see the PMIs from China in a couple of weeks time. My guess is that it will probably show economic activity bouncing back somewhat as restrictions are slowly lifted. The country won't be firing on all cylinders, but it won't be collapsing. China's real problems are elsewhere: misallocated capital, a shadow lending sector, etc. But for now... I think they probably get away with it.
It could be pretty big energy, everybody's been running down their stocks during the lockdown, as soon as people can get back in the factories it'll be full speed ahead.
I wonder how many factories will be re-purposed to produce medical supplies? Cos there is lots of money to be made from that for the foreseeable future as they literally every possible thing they can make will be bought.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Given the first case in Australia was the same day as the first case in Europe your sarcasm is misplaced.
Given the fact that the first case in Australia was on the very same day as the first case in China you have conclusively won this argument.
That can't be right, surely? The first case in China was the start of the outbreak.
Kind of the point I was trying to make.
I'm probably being incredibly dense and just can't see the point you are making.
HYUFD made the point that there are fewer cases in the southern hemisphere - and that this was due to different climatic conditions. I made the point that this was probably due to a massive headstart.
Richard Tyndall made the point that the first cases in Europe and Australia were reported on the same day. The point that I should have made was that the Australian case was probably one of very few transmissions by travellers from China, and that many more of these incidences have occured in the northern hemisphere, setting off many more chains of infections, leading to more clusters via community transmission, leading to higher case numbers. It should also be noted that there are some highly populated southern hemisphere countries which were late to start testing, and subsequently reporting cases, which will skew any comparison of reported case numbers and overall population.
All of that, plus worrying developments in relatively warm northern hemisphere countries like Iran, does not instill a lot of confidence in me that the summer will be of significant help. A little bit maybe, but the summer will not 'kill the virus' as many people seem to hope.
Governments across Europe seem to be closing down their economies with the hope of lancing the boil quickly. This seems at odds with the Hong Kong / Japan approach of reducing R0 through more measured social distancing policies.
I don't think that's the point, the more measured policies are great when you've got things mostly under control but governments outside Asia left it too late, now they need extreme measures to take the pressure off, followed by an ongoing effort learning from HK/JP/SK.
In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.
From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.
Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer
Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
Given the first case in Australia was the same day as the first case in Europe your sarcasm is misplaced.
Given the fact that the first case in Australia was on the very same day as the first case in China you have conclusively won this argument.
That can't be right, surely? The first case in China was the start of the outbreak.
Kind of the point I was trying to make.
I'm probably being incredibly dense and just can't see the point you are making.
HYUFD made the point that there are fewer cases in the southern hemisphere - and that this was due to different climatic conditions. I made the point that this was probably due to a massive headstart.
Richard Tyndall made the point that the first cases in Europe and Australia were reported on the same day. The point that I should have made was that the Australian case was probably one of very few transmissions by travellers from China, and that many more of these incidences have occured in the northern hemisphere, setting off many more chains of infections, leading to more clusters via community transmission, leading to higher case numbers. It should also be noted that there are some highly populated southern hemisphere countries which were late to start testing, and subsequently reporting cases, which will skew any comparison of reported case numbers and overall population.
All of that, plus worrying developments in relatively warm northern hemisphere countries like Iran, does not instill a lot of confidence in me that the summer will be of significant help. A little bit maybe, but the summer will not 'kill the virus' as many people seem to hope.
Now I follow. Thanks for taking the time to explain it to me!
I suspect you are right, and warmness doesn't factor into it all that much. A second order effect at most.
It surely depends on *who* gets it. U20s go critical at about a 0.1% rate. Mind you, they're journalists, and therefore completely incapable of deep thought about anything.
Its like the f##king twats in the media don't listen. Witty initially said the upper bound he thought was 500,000, then he came back and said they remodelled things and he thought 100,000.
The knuckle dragging journalists have taken a slide that says we need to make sure we plan with the "expectation" of 80% i.e. plan for the absolutely worst case scenario from the egg-head model. But Witty said that is absolutely top end and thinks it will be far far less than that.
I presume 80% is literally the government or the public doesn't do anything, as it is presumed combination of some natural immunity and weird hermit people means that it can't reach 100% naturally anyway.
Have you ever met a politician who doesn't know how to spend money?
Looking for silver linings of CV, there probably never was a moment before when it was as possible and as advisable to spend as much printed money as now.
That is an opportunity for wise politicians - and I do believe that some of them exist - to change some things for the better.
So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.
The idea that Biden has dementia is ridiculous. It must come from people who have never lived with someone with that terrible condition.
They do tend to have lucid moments when you'd never believe they were even sick. It's easy in those moments to delude yourself they're getting better.
Not to say that Biden does or doesn't have it, but it's not a straightforward condition.
Lucid moments. Fine. But a lucid two hour debate? No way. Biden may stutter and have forgetful moments, but dementia? Nah.
Well, I agree. But I think the point is about projecting his "forgetful moments" forward over the four year term and asking if that's really advisable for the Leader of the Free World.
The idea that Biden has dementia is ridiculous. It must come from people who have never lived with someone with that terrible condition.
They do tend to have lucid moments when you'd never believe they were even sick. It's easy in those moments to delude yourself they're getting better.
Not to say that Biden does or doesn't have it, but it's not a straightforward condition.
Lucid moments. Fine. But a lucid two hour debate? No way. Biden may stutter and have forgetful moments, but dementia? Nah.
Well, I agree. But I think the point is about projecting his "forgetful moments" forward over the four year term and asking if that's really advisable for the Leader of the Free World.
Had the CV saga kicked off a month earlier there might still be some of the younger contenders on the stage. Come November, America might have developed more of an appetite for someone with a bit of future in them.
The idea that Biden has dementia is ridiculous. It must come from people who have never lived with someone with that terrible condition.
They do tend to have lucid moments when you'd never believe they were even sick. It's easy in those moments to delude yourself they're getting better.
Not to say that Biden does or doesn't have it, but it's not a straightforward condition.
Lucid moments. Fine. But a lucid two hour debate? No way. Biden may stutter and have forgetful moments, but dementia? Nah.
Well, I agree. But I think the point is about projecting his "forgetful moments" forward over the four year term and asking if that's really advisable for the Leader of the Free World.
Look at the alternative. Even if Biden spends four years asleep at his desk while his chief of staff and veep run the USA, would still be better.
The idea that Biden has dementia is ridiculous. It must come from people who have never lived with someone with that terrible condition.
I have lived with it, and the early stages were a kind of flickering with longish periods when one thinks (and hopes) there isn't a problem. It was probably a couple of years before I had to accept my mother had dementia (and she never accepted it).
Biden commits to choosing a woman as his running mate. Mr. Biden said for the first time that he would choose a woman to be his running mate.
“I commit that I will, in fact, appoint a woman to be vice president,” Mr. Biden said. “There are a number of women qualified to be president tomorrow.”
Why does Biden's eyes look like he's possessed by Satan?
That's a sign that he's locked up the nomination, Satan doesn't usually possess the candidate until projections show an overwhelming delegate lead. Famously he didn't enter Richard Nixon until the second day of the 1968 Republican Convention, due to the ongoing challenge from New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller.
If Biden is committing to a woman VP, and he doesn't really need to do that right now, it suggests he's already chosen his VP.
Why would he already have chosen his VP? Because it was part of a deal he made with someone.
Who had something he needed? Baemy, Buttiegieg and Warren. But Buttigieg is no lady, while Warren is still in.
It's KLOBUCHAR.
Wait, Warren is still in? I thought she withdrew weeks ago.
In either case, Warren was for a while more use to Biden in than out, to split the left wing vote at the point when he'd all but wrapped up the centrist vote.
I agree the Klob is a more likely VP pick than Liz, but not sure your logic quite stacks up.
If Biden is committing to a woman VP, and he doesn't really need to do that right now, it suggests he's already chosen his VP.
Why would he already have chosen his VP? Because it was part of a deal he made with someone.
Who had something he needed? Baemy, Buttiegieg and Warren. But Buttigieg is no lady, while Warren is still in.
It's KLOBUCHAR.
Wait, Warren is still in? I thought she withdrew weeks ago.
In either case, Warren was for a while more use to Biden in than out, to split the left wing vote at the point when he'd all but wrapped up the centrist vote.
I agree the Klob is a more likely VP pick than Liz, but not sure your logic quite stacks up.
Oh, sorry, yes, she's out now, but she hasn't endorsed, and when she quit it was beyond the point where Biden needed to make deals.
Comments
I agree with you on this. The point that Robert is making is that left unchecked the Coronavirus would kill millions given its apparent exponential growth and hence the difference.
We do not know and thank goodness no one will carry out a control trial to see if it actually would.
Trump signalled to his tribe early on that it was a liberal hoax. Johnson has got a much more mild case of what Trump has got. He officially backed the CMO etc but he also sent out little signals that it was nothing to worry about, like pretending he shook hands with infected people.
There is good reason to believe that ibuprofen helps down regulate the runaway inflammatory response in COVID19.
It may be swings and roundabouts, but at present no evidence that in a clinical situation ibuprofen is either bad or good.
This is the sort of thing that we may know better if there ever is a further outbreak.
Bon nuit.
I wouldn't go lockdown nationally, just in outbreak areas. Basingstoke may need it, but Andover not. And revise fairly frequently, as informed by widespread swabbing in primary and secondary care of all symptomatic patients, with contact tracing.
So perhaps not all bad.
What a total nightmare. Can anyone imagine Jezza, Abbot and Seamus in charge of this national disaster? With a side order of Len?
I shudder.
The two company Boards I'm meant to be speaking to this week have taken this news very calmly; it seems their NEDs have already agreed to dial in (I'm unclear whose idea this was but given their ages, it seems very sensible). Many of my other clients and wider contacts also seem to have taken similar steps.
It also fits well with the apparent government policy of trailing every new measure a few days in advance, which helps people get used to the idea before they have to do it, and means there's a good chance of people taking the steps voluntarily rather than being forced. Sort of like the boiling frog approach.
China. It will be interesting to see the PMIs from China in a couple of weeks time. My guess is that it will probably show economic activity bouncing back somewhat as restrictions are slowly lifted. The country won't be firing on all cylinders, but it won't be collapsing. China's real problems are elsewhere: misallocated capital, a shadow lending sector, etc. But for now... I think they probably get away with it.
The EU. I think this probably continues the view (from the Italians) that they are ignored and unloved by Brussels. The slight problem they will have is that an increasing proportion of Italian government debt is owned by the ECB. And the more that's owned in Frankfurt, the less leverage the Italian government has. Still, it will probably end with a populist Italian leading Italy out of the Eurozone and the EU. Whether that works out for Italy or not is another matter altogether.
The US. Well, this one is a toughy. I think the long term consequence of COVID-19 is universal healthcare. However, it's kind of forgotten, but the US (even before COVID-19) was running Corbynomics. Their budget deficit, at the fag end of an economic expansion, was 5%. Before COVID-19. At some point there will need to be a rebalancing there.. But when?
(asking for a friend)
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1238946937916682241?s=19
And
https://twitter.com/_SJPeace_/status/1239225071421534209?s=19
The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet.
The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at a Kaiser Permanente research facility in Washington state, the official said.
From the Guardian live blog:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy
Asking for a friend.
Governments across Europe seem to be closing down their economies with the hope of lancing the boil quickly. This seems at odds with the Hong Kong / Japan approach of reducing R0 through more measured social distancing policies.
Proportionately is important here, as the war won't be won over a few weeks. This is for reasons related to epidemiology (the risk of a worse second wave in the winter, like the Spanish Flu), to the economy (deep recessions can result in many excess deaths too), and to the real human impact of isolation and missed education/employment.
I suspect that a lot of the 'lock everything down' crew are those had no worries about the virus when its very real risk became obvious 2 month's ago. They understand that they are at risk now, but not the nature of viruses; and they think we'll be over the hill in a matter of weeks after lockdown. They don't realise lockdown type conditions might last months, and that they may have to do it all over again in 6 month's time.
The UK's policy raises some questions in the detail, but I think we'll be on the right side of history in 12 months time (compared to most) if we continue with our incremental approach.
I wouldn't go lockdown nationally, just in outbreak areas. Basingstoke may need it, but Andover not. And revise fairly frequently, as informed by widespread swabbing in primary and secondary care of all symptomatic patients, with contact tracing.
Just out of interest do we know much about the Basingstoke outbreak? I'm due to see a few people there early this week that I may not mind a reason to skip.
I made the point that this was probably due to a massive headstart.
Richard Tyndall made the point that the first cases in Europe and Australia were reported on the same day.
The point that I should have made was that the Australian case was probably one of very few transmissions by travellers from China, and that many more of these incidences have occured in the northern hemisphere, setting off many more chains of infections, leading to more clusters via community transmission, leading to higher case numbers.
It should also be noted that there are some highly populated southern hemisphere countries which were late to start testing, and subsequently reporting cases, which will skew any comparison of reported case numbers and overall population.
All of that, plus worrying developments in relatively warm northern hemisphere countries like Iran, does not instill a lot of confidence in me that the summer will be of significant help.
A little bit maybe, but the summer will not 'kill the virus' as many people seem to hope.
I suspect you are right, and warmness doesn't factor into it all that much. A second order effect at most.
The Hill
And people say Biden is too old?
Plus this is good chance for Biden to get debate practice.
The knuckle dragging journalists have taken a slide that says we need to make sure we plan with the "expectation" of 80% i.e. plan for the absolutely worst case scenario from the egg-head model. But Witty said that is absolutely top end and thinks it will be far far less than that.
I presume 80% is literally the government or the public doesn't do anything, as it is presumed combination of some natural immunity and weird hermit people means that it can't reach 100% naturally anyway.
That is an opportunity for wise politicians - and I do believe that some of them exist - to change some things for the better.
We stride the world.
Not to say that Biden does or doesn't have it, but it's not a straightforward condition.
Somebody end this now and start fighting Trump
Biden just said his veep WILL be a woman.
Come November, America might have developed more of an appetite for someone with a bit of future in them.
Massive news.
Why would he already have chosen his VP? Because it was part of a deal he made with someone.
Who had something he needed? Baemy, Buttiegieg and Warren. But Buttigieg is no lady, while Warren is still in.
It's KLOBUCHAR.
Biden commits to choosing a woman as his running mate.
Mr. Biden said for the first time that he would choose a woman to be his running mate.
“I commit that I will, in fact, appoint a woman to be vice president,” Mr. Biden said. “There are a number of women qualified to be president tomorrow.”
Note for TWAT666: this is not an endorsement of any Argentinian claims over the Falklands, South Georgia or South Thule.
https://twitter.com/OrrChris/status/1239360052693209094
https://twitter.com/kinsan_tohyama/status/1238978887356280833/photo/1
I was waiting for the point when people would start blaming the Jews.
Currently unavailable.
We don't know when or if this item will be back in stock."
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cusheen-Quilted-Luxury-Lavender-Scented/dp/B073Q4BJKG
https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/1239367865784033280
In either case, Warren was for a while more use to Biden in than out, to split the left wing vote at the point when he'd all but wrapped up the centrist vote.
I agree the Klob is a more likely VP pick than Liz, but not sure your logic quite stacks up.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.