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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is runnin

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  • IanB2 said:

    People on Twitter, the Web or activist journalists think this is a game. Make the government look bad and you win.

    No. Discredit the chief medical officer and chief scientist and you kill evidence based policy. That way lies chaos and death. It’s not a game. It’s pathetic and dangerous and should be called out.

    If you hate Boris because of Brexit and are prepared to go for him because of that, have the decency to say it. This is too important to dick around.

    Agreed.

    Although TBF up until a few weeks ago, our PM thought that politics was a game, too.
    Watching that first press briefing in No 10 with Boris between the CMO and CSO it was clear he knew it wasn’t a game. No PM would want to be on the spot for this one. One thing I come back to is that the PM, Sturgeon and others HAVE to do what their medical advisors say or the press will find out. Therefore Boris HAS to act on the advice. If you think otherwise then you’re an idiot
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    So what you propose they do?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    DougSeal said:

    Does anyone have a decent resource (I’ve been relying on Wikipedia) as to the Chinese response OUTSIDE the Wuhan and Hubei epicentre? Very crudely, if we regard Italy as Europe’s Hubei, then the experience of the rest of the country must be instructive to the rest of us.

    (If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).

    No, but just wanted everyone to be aware that China's Tibet province has had less than 10 cases.

    Now, it's very very thinly populated, and has high elevation, but it's interesting none the less.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited March 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    If he has only just got the symptoms, he could easily test negative even if he has the virus, and would therefore be told to self isolate whatever the result of the test might be.

    It has become shorthand for “I am indoors”. Like people who diet between meals.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
    There was at that time no real time test. What are they suppose to do, stop 10,000 of people coming through and test every single one and tell them in about 2-3 days we will be able to tell you if you are positive?

    There isn't the capacity to do it and you think all those people will just stand in line for several hours while they are processed?

    The goal was on finding new cases and firefighting them so they didn't get a Northern Italy situation. From reports, they managed to put out fires in places like Brighton, which could have easily exploded.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Internet noise aside, the two most worrying conversations I had today were with seventy year old who don’t see themselves as at risk. They are fit and healthy, but because of this they are missing the point they they are septuagenarians. We all need to help land the point.

    They are adults with more experience of life than their children and as capable of assessing risks. You don't need to "land the point"! They could probably put you right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
    There was at that time no real time test. What are they suppose to do, stop 10,000 of people coming through and test every single one and tell them in about 2-3 days we will be able to tell you if you are positive?

    There isn't the capacity to do it and you think all those people will just stand in line for several hours while they are processed?

    The goal was on finding new cases and firefighting them so they didn't get a Northern Italy situation. From reports, they managed to put out fires in places like Brighton, which could have easily exploded.
    Some passengers were shown on the news waiting up to 8 hours on landing at one US airport (can't remember which). Throngs of passengers some of whom may be infected or carriers in very close proximity...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
    There was at that time no real time test. What are they suppose to do, stop 10,000 of people coming through and test every single one and tell them in about 2-3 days we will be able to tell you if you are positive?

    There isn't the capacity to do it and you think all those people will just stand in line for several hours while they are processed?

    The goal was on finding new cases and firefighting them so they didn't get a Northern Italy situation. From reports, they managed to put out fires in places like Brighton, which could have easily exploded.
    Some passengers were shown on the news waiting up to 8 hours on landing at one US airport (can't remember which). Throngs of passengers some of whom may be infected or carriers in very close proximity...
    You sure that wasn't archival footage? Eight hours is fast for the US border. ;)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
    There was at that time no real time test. What are they suppose to do, stop 10,000 of people coming through and test every single one and tell them in about 2-3 days we will be able to tell you if you are positive?

    There isn't the capacity to do it and you think all those people will just stand in line for several hours while they are processed?

    The goal was on finding new cases and firefighting them so they didn't get a Northern Italy situation. From reports, they managed to put out fires in places like Brighton, which could have easily exploded.
    Some passengers were shown on the news waiting up to 8 hours on landing at one US airport (can't remember which). Throngs of passengers some of whom may be infected or carriers in very close proximity...
    Exactly, it is a terrible idea to just cause an even bigger crowd and have them all circulate for hours...it is why conferences appear to be a particular vector of transmission.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,604

    Andy_JS said:

    The economist (and paper reviewer) Ruth Lea was on Five Live just now and says she will refuse to self-isolate completely, and would prefer to end up in Holloway jail if they make it compulsory.

    https://twitter.com/RuthLeaEcon

    I tried to explain to my parents why they need to self-isolate but they think I'm "taking things too seriously".
    The trouble with kids these days. Sigh.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898

    Nothing like trying it a second time, The Donald must be happy gets to refinance all his gold towers on the cheap.
    Presumably this will mean a strong opening on the markets in the morning though it wreaks of desperation and sounds a bit like what Draghi had to do to protect the Euro.

    Trump must be aware a failing economy undermines his chances in the autumn so he is throwing all kinds of stimulus at it now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
    The skin on my hands is really badly cracked...obviously all this washing and the fact as my father tells me that I have never done a proper days work in my life to harden them up.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
    They're currently trying to get 30,000 people back from the Alps. At the 2,000 to 3,000 tests they seem to be performing per day, that's nearly two weeks just to get through that batch, let alone anything more interesting from in country or any other returnees from the rest of the world
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Wow.

    Fed just announced interest rate of 0% to 0.25%. $700 billion of QE. Forward guidance of low interest rates for foreseeable future. They are throwing everything at the wall. Economic data must be bad.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    ukpaul said:

    I’m a bit confused by this new show that the BBC are putting on every day called ‘Trump Press Conference’ or something,

    The plot just keeps going round in circles, the lead character is badly written and the supporting cast just stand around. The dialogue sounds as though it was written by a three year old and the camerawork is shockingly static. The guy with the grey hair must be one of the worst actors I’ve seen, could his delivery get any more boring? They didn’t even broadcast it to the end today. Who on earth commissioned this rubbish?

    Its certainly not very convincing....
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    Indeed. On television last week was a chap who'd flown in from an Italian hotspot and was surprised there were no tests on landing.
    There was at that time no real time test. What are they suppose to do, stop 10,000 of people coming through and test every single one and tell them in about 2-3 days we will be able to tell you if you are positive?

    There isn't the capacity to do it and you think all those people will just stand in line for several hours while they are processed?

    The goal was on finding new cases and firefighting them so they didn't get a Northern Italy situation. From reports, they managed to put out fires in places like Brighton, which could have easily exploded.
    Some passengers were shown on the news waiting up to 8 hours on landing at one US airport (can't remember which). Throngs of passengers some of whom may be infected or carriers in very close proximity...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51895246

    At Chicago O'Hare and Dallas-Fort Worth airports, passengers reported long queues as travellers returning from Europe waited to be screened as part of measures to combat coronavirus.

    The US administration has imposed a ban on non-Americans travelling from the 26 European countries in the Schengen free movement zone. The ban will be extended to the UK and Ireland as of Tuesday.

    US citizens are allowed to return but face screening.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    rcs1000 said:

    Let me interject with some good news for a moment.

    All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.

    Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.

    Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.

    I truly hope you are correct.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
    I'm sure we all appreciate your work.

    Lets hope you get the best of luck.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
    The skin on my hands is really badly cracked...obviously all this washing and the fact as my father tells me that I have never done a proper days work in my life to harden them up.
    Norwegian Formula hand cream is the tops.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    DougSeal said:

    Does anyone have a decent resource (I’ve been relying on Wikipedia) as to the Chinese response OUTSIDE the Wuhan and Hubei epicentre? Very crudely, if we regard Italy as Europe’s Hubei, then the experience of the rest of the country must be instructive to the rest of us.

    (If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).

    This is really important, and could help shed any light on whether the chinese government are fiddling the figures either for positive tests, potentially more favourable for us if it means more asymptomatic cases, or more symptomatic or deadly cases, which would be worse, outside Hubei.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    IanB2 said:

    People on Twitter, the Web or activist journalists think this is a game. Make the government look bad and you win.

    No. Discredit the chief medical officer and chief scientist and you kill evidence based policy. That way lies chaos and death. It’s not a game. It’s pathetic and dangerous and should be called out.

    If you hate Boris because of Brexit and are prepared to go for him because of that, have the decency to say it. This is too important to dick around.

    Agreed.

    Although TBF up until a few weeks ago, our PM thought that politics was a game, too.
    Watching that first press briefing in No 10 with Boris between the CMO and CSO it was clear he knew it wasn’t a game. No PM would want to be on the spot for this one. One thing I come back to is that the PM, Sturgeon and others HAVE to do what their medical advisors say or the press will find out. Therefore Boris HAS to act on the advice. If you think otherwise then you’re an idiot
    I agree with that. Boris might be many different things to different people but one thing hr isn't, is an idiot.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Pulpstar said:

    Kids are almost certainly asymptomatic carriers.

    Yup.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    DougSeal said:

    Does anyone have a decent resource (I’ve been relying on Wikipedia) as to the Chinese response OUTSIDE the Wuhan and Hubei epicentre? Very crudely, if we regard Italy as Europe’s Hubei, then the experience of the rest of the country must be instructive to the rest of us.

    (If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).

    This is really important, and could help shed any light on whether the chinese government are fiddling the figures either for positive tests, potentially more favourable for us if it means more asymptomatic cases, or more symptomatic or deadly cases, which would be worse, outside Hubei,
    It is clear the UK government don't believe the figures.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    ukpaul said:

    I’m a bit confused by this new show that the BBC are putting on every day called ‘Trump Press Conference’ or something,

    The plot just keeps going round in circles, the lead character is badly written and the supporting cast just stand around. The dialogue sounds as though it was written by a three year old and the camerawork is shockingly static. The guy with the grey hair must be one of the worst actors I’ve seen, could his delivery get any more boring? They didn’t even broadcast it to the end today. Who on earth commissioned this rubbish?

    I don't know why they keep broadcasting it. If there are any bits of it which hold up under mild scrutiny just tell us those a few hours later.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    rcs1000 said:

    Let me interject with some good news for a moment.

    All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.

    Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.

    Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.

    I largely agree, people are distancing even without proper government instruction, so the peak is probably 4-6 weeks away here, perhaps 2-3 in Lombardia.

    First cases amongst staff in my hospital reported via WhatsApp. High patient contact specialities too.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    rcs1000 said:

    Let me interject with some good news for a moment.

    All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.

    Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.

    Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.

    That would be very good if true but why do you think that new infections and already falling in the UK ?
    Possibly - On Saturday, the total cases went up by over 300, today the number went up by 240 or so.
    The number of new infections has trended up for over two weeks but with some occasional falls.

    And that is also dependent upon the number of tests and who are being tested.

    Not to mention the number of people who are being infected who are asymptomatic.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880

    DougSeal said:

    Does anyone have a decent resource (I’ve been relying on Wikipedia) as to the Chinese response OUTSIDE the Wuhan and Hubei epicentre? Very crudely, if we regard Italy as Europe’s Hubei, then the experience of the rest of the country must be instructive to the rest of us.

    (If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).

    No, but just wanted everyone to be aware that China's Tibet province has had less than 10 cases.

    Now, it's very very thinly populated, and has high elevation, but it's interesting none the less.
    Sorry, make that just ONE CASE in Tibet (who recovered).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_data/China_medical_cases_by_province#Summary_table
  • ukpaulukpaul Posts: 649
    kyf_100 said:

    The trouble with herd immunity is the branding.

    It's the word. "Herd". What image does it conjure up in your mind? Perhaps one of sheep. Sheep are idiots. Or cattle. Cattle get slaughtered.

    Herds are culled and most people do not want to be part of a cull. The very idea strikes fear into the hearts of the unwashed, loo-roll hoarding masses, who are suddenly made acutely aware of their own individual unimportance.

    The question is what you re-brand the concept as. It's effectively a lottery where 97% of the population win, but sadly "national lottery" is already taken.

    Community Immunity.

    Nice, caring idea and it rhymes so would make a good song.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.
  • Are NHS staff in some areas currently being tested across the board before showing any symptoms ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    nichomar said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    So what you propose they do?
    Exactly what they are doing!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    St Paddy's?
  • Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    It might be crazy, but it's human.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    IanB2 said:

    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?

    What could this be?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Quincel said:

    ukpaul said:

    I’m a bit confused by this new show that the BBC are putting on every day called ‘Trump Press Conference’ or something,

    The plot just keeps going round in circles, the lead character is badly written and the supporting cast just stand around. The dialogue sounds as though it was written by a three year old and the camerawork is shockingly static. The guy with the grey hair must be one of the worst actors I’ve seen, could his delivery get any more boring? They didn’t even broadcast it to the end today. Who on earth commissioned this rubbish?

    I don't know why they keep broadcasting it. If there are any bits of it which hold up under mild scrutiny just tell us those a few hours later.
    I suspect they are broadcasting it mainly for potential entertainment value - the not exactly remote chance that Trump will say something truly stupid (again).
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    That’s fine it’s part of the plan
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    I fear the central banks are pushing on a string.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    DougSeal said:

    Does anyone have a decent resource (I’ve been relying on Wikipedia) as to the Chinese response OUTSIDE the Wuhan and Hubei epicentre? Very crudely, if we regard Italy as Europe’s Hubei, then the experience of the rest of the country must be instructive to the rest of us.

    (If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).

    This is really important, and could help shed any light on whether the chinese government are fiddling the figures either for positive tests, potentially more favourable for us if it means more asymptomatic cases, or more symptomatic or deadly cases, which would be worse, outside Hubei,
    It is clear the UK government don't believe the figures.
    The World Health Organisation do.

    There is also evidence from mortality in those places, and Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    France is also moving towards a herd immunity approach as without building up immunity amongst the able bodied a second wave in the winter will put huge pressure on the health service, even if this wave of Covid 19 slows down about June.

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/la-france-mise-sur-l-immunite-de-groupe-pour-arreter-le-coronavirus-20200313

    Meanwhile the government is sensibly preparing to self isolate the more vulnerable ie the elderly and those with pre existing health conditions
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Let me interject with some good news for a moment.

    All the evidence from Hubei is that when you clamp down on social interaction (whether through voluntary distancing or more extensive "shut downs"), new infections plummet. This takes a week or so to show up in the headline numbers, but it's almost certainly the case that new infections are falling in the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Spain. And I have little doubt that the US will follow a week or so behind.

    Now, this still means there's a week of new cases rising happening in Europe. But the 3x multiplier of people infected is almost certainly below 1x right now thanks to the various measures that have been taken.

    Removing restrictions is going to be a gradual thing, so we can make sure that hotspots are identified, and people traced and treated. It will take some time to get back to normal. But it all probability the peak of infections has already been passed. We just won't see it for a couple of weeks yet.

    I largely agree, people are distancing even without proper government instruction, so the peak is probably 4-6 weeks away here, perhaps 2-3 in Lombardia.

    First cases amongst staff in my hospital reported via WhatsApp. High patient contact specialities too.
    Sons girlfriend is a nurse - its going through staff here too.

    She awaits the result of a test as she is showing classic symptoms - her first concern.... her patients

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570

    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
    The skin on my hands is really badly cracked...obviously all this washing and the fact as my father tells me that I have never done a proper days work in my life to harden them up.
    Norwegian Formula hand cream is the tops.
    Yep used it for years. Doing Archaeology work means washing hands a huge amount even when you have been wearing gloves. For a long time it was quite painful much of the time until someone recommended Norwegian Formula. I know it sounds like an advert but it really does work wonders.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Quick question re Italy and Spain lockdowns: do they have a list of jobs which are excluded? Health workers and emergency services obviously must be exempt but what about all those involved in formulating and executing policy? Also utility workers, farmers, vets, I could go on...?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited March 2020
    Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    Same reason that I went out for dinner last night, and to church this morning. It may be the last chance for a while.

    Are NHS staff in some areas currently being tested across the board before showing any symptoms ?

    Not even with symptoms at many Trusts.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?

    What could this be?
    And why wait until Tuesday? If they are planning it, they clearly have in mind what they're going to say.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    Does anyone have a decent resource (I’ve been relying on Wikipedia) as to the Chinese response OUTSIDE the Wuhan and Hubei epicentre? Very crudely, if we regard Italy as Europe’s Hubei, then the experience of the rest of the country must be instructive to the rest of us.

    (If Brexiteers prefer we can be Japan or Taiwan in this analogy).

    This is really important, and could help shed any light on whether the chinese government are fiddling the figures either for positive tests, potentially more favourable for us if it means more asymptomatic cases, or more symptomatic or deadly cases, which would be worse, outside Hubei,
    It is clear the UK government don't believe the figures.
    The World Health Organisation do.

    There is also evidence from mortality in those places, and Hong Kong, Singapore, etc.
    I know they do, but it is clear the Western government don't, hence why UK, US, Germany, France have all made it quite clear they think 50-80% of people could get this and their strategies (well the US don't appear to have one) are based upon this scenario.

    Somebody is wrong.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622

    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
    The skin on my hands is really badly cracked...obviously all this washing and the fact as my father tells me that I have never done a proper days work in my life to harden them up.
    Norwegian Formula hand cream is the tops.
    Yep used it for years. Doing Archaeology work means washing hands a huge amount even when you have been wearing gloves. For a long time it was quite painful much of the time until someone recommended Norwegian Formula. I know it sounds like an advert but it really does work wonders.
    Did you say you were going to be on a Channel 5 program ?

    If so could you give details ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    HYUFD said:

    France is also moving towards a herd immunity approach as without building up immunity amongst the able bodied a second wave in the winter will put huge pressure on the health service, even if this wave of Covid 19 slows down about June.

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/la-france-mise-sur-l-immunite-de-groupe-pour-arreter-le-coronavirus-20200313

    Meanwhile the government is sensibly preparing to self isolate the more vulnerable ie the elderly and those with pre existing health conditions

    Sounds a bit like our policy.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?

    What could this be?
    And why wait until Tuesday? If they are planning it, they clearly have in mind what they're going to say.
    Yes but they don't want to say it yet.
    Timing.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    New York City public schools closing until at least April 20th. All elective surgery in NYC to be suspended by mayoral order.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Quick question re Italy and Spain lockdowns: do they have a list of jobs which are excluded? Health workers and emergency services obviously must be exempt but what about all those involved in formulating and executing policy? Also utility workers, farmers, vets, I could go on...?

    In Italy you are allowed to go out for ‘urgent work’, food shopping, and health appointments.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Telegraph live blog:

    The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a leaked Public Health England document has claimed.

    The document, seen by The Guardian, says as much as 80 per cent of the population could be infected, and 15 per cent hospitalised.

    The briefing contrasts with Prof Chris Whitty's previous statement that the 80 per cent was a "worse case scenario", telling PHE officials that many are "expected" to contract Covid-19.

    The document says the epidemic could last until spring 2021, later than originally thought.
  • I look forward to my usual Monday Senior Management Team meeting at work, have no idea what might be on the agenda...

    My usual Monday routine to follow. Up at 5. Gym gear on, kettle on, load suitcase laptop bag and suit carrier into the car. Down to WakeyVegas, run (will be day 6 of my 5k a day challenge), then onwards to Sheffield. Weather looks decent so leave the car at work for the 3k walk to my hotel. Normal.

    How many more Monday's will I be travelling down from Teesside to work in Sheffield before government says dont? And if I'm not heading to work how many of my production colleagues end up the same? At which point how quickly does our business stop being able to function and falls over...?

    At the same time my 19 year old reports that his (mega complex medical conditions) mum had the ambulance out this afternoon as trouble breathing. Her blood O2 level just above their guidelines so no ride to hospital or tests or help. Have told him to call 999 again if she really is struggling. TBH I've been half expecting *something* to finish her off for a while, was hoping she could keep going through his A-Levels at least. Not that I expect his year to ever complete their A-levels now.

    Fun times!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
    Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.

    Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    Went to a local pub for dinner with friends on Friday and it was rammed and very loud and lively. We were expecting it to be quiet.

    Nobody noticeably coughing though which was a plus.

    Doubt we'll be repeating the exercise for a while now.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    HYUFD said:

    France is also moving towards a herd immunity approach as without building up immunity amongst the able bodied a second wave in the winter will put huge pressure on the health service, even if this wave of Covid 19 slows down about June.

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/la-france-mise-sur-l-immunite-de-groupe-pour-arreter-le-coronavirus-20200313

    Meanwhile the government is sensibly preparing to self isolate the more vulnerable ie the elderly and those with pre existing health conditions

    Two questions if I may:

    1) If we are able to self-isolate large numbers in the short term and the virus returns in the winter, will said individuals have to self-isolate again as they will still have no resistance to the virus?

    2) Are you advocating able bodied people actively seek those with the virus to get infected? That's how it sounds - to achieve the kind of immunity being suggested around 60% or so need to be infected. Currently we are a very long way from that. If you want to develop "herd immunity", remove all restrictions and let the virus run through the population. There will be some deaths but the vast majority will be fine for next winter. Is that Government policy?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020
    Floater said:

    Telegraph live blog:

    The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a leaked Public Health England document has claimed.

    The document, seen by The Guardian, says as much as 80 per cent of the population could be infected, and 15 per cent hospitalised.

    The briefing contrasts with Prof Chris Whitty's previous statement that the 80 per cent was a "worse case scenario", telling PHE officials that many are "expected" to contract Covid-19.

    The document says the epidemic could last until spring 2021, later than originally thought.

    FFS, the government are now going to have to waste a day firefighting over the word "expected".

    My guess would be that what it actually is about is PHE have to work out a response based upon an expected 80%, as that is the upper bound that has been predicted by the models. If they made plans based on 20%, the media would be screaming but but but the upper bound is 80%.

    And again, Witty and co were quite clear they said wave one was 12 weeks, but they expected multiple waves.

    I f##king said the media would do this if they got the documents.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?

    What could this be?
    And why wait until Tuesday? If they are planning it, they clearly have in mind what they're going to say.
    Emergency legislation is being introduced to the house tomorrow, and i presume will be passed into law tomorrow or Tuesday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    Given the behaviour of the media so far, I bet if we do have city lock-downs the tw@ts will leak it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Andy_JS said:

    The economist (and paper reviewer) Ruth Lea was on Five Live just now and says she will refuse to self-isolate completely, and would prefer to end up in Holloway jail if they make it compulsory.

    https://twitter.com/RuthLeaEcon

    It isn't jail she should be worried about.

    I just watched the latest episode of the very excellent Avenue 5. Lots of rich idiots stuck on a cruise ship in space. Very funny. Very black humour.

    Somehow one visual effects expert manages to convince the passengers that they are really not stuck on a cruise liner in space but actually still on earth as part of a reality show. She helps as the first sucker goes into the airlock and in front of everyone dies rather horribly. She then convinces the crowd yet again this was all just visual effects and so more people do the same.

    Eventually the crowd gets the message that this woman is talking bullshit and they really are in space. But not before 7 people have died.

    In the real world we are seeing far too many 'experts' at the moment who are putting people's lives at risk by undermining the very carefully considered plans of the scientific and medical advisors.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
    They were also really unlucky it got into a care house.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    France is also moving towards a herd immunity approach as without building up immunity amongst the able bodied a second wave in the winter will put huge pressure on the health service, even if this wave of Covid 19 slows down about June.

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/la-france-mise-sur-l-immunite-de-groupe-pour-arreter-le-coronavirus-20200313

    Meanwhile the government is sensibly preparing to self isolate the more vulnerable ie the elderly and those with pre existing health conditions

    Two questions if I may:

    1) If we are able to self-isolate large numbers in the short term and the virus returns in the winter, will said individuals have to self-isolate again as they will still have no resistance to the virus?

    2) Are you advocating able bodied people actively seek those with the virus to get infected? That's how it sounds - to achieve the kind of immunity being suggested around 60% or so need to be infected. Currently we are a very long way from that. If you want to develop "herd immunity", remove all restrictions and let the virus run through the population. There will be some deaths but the vast majority will be fine for next winter. Is that Government policy?
    Good questions and I don't have answers.

    But I would hope that the government would be getting more data, from this country and others, every day as to what is happening and adjust strategy as appropriate.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    The reaction of the Fed today is some desperate attempt to stop the shellacking tomorrow in the markets....

    I've probably saved a couple of hundred this weekend-meals out etc...but I've lost well over 100k plus plus over the last weeks- not lost really since I never had it-on investments.....

    I'm struggling to see how capitalism gets through this at the minute

    What the fuck were those economic forecasts a month ago thinking-it might shave China's growth by 0.5%??

    This is going to fuck over the real economy...people's lives, their little businesses, their hopes and dreams...all that work....
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Seattle is getting very bad. A must read thread:

    https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited March 2020

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?

    What could this be?
    And why wait until Tuesday? If they are planning it, they clearly have in mind what they're going to say.
    Emergency legislation is being introduced to the house tomorrow, and i presume will be passed into law tomorrow or Tuesday.
    Well ok that's a plausible reason, although it puzzled me that parliament didn't just sit through the weekend to get that done, as it's an emergency.

    PS has somebody squared any emergency legislation with Christopher Chope so that he doesn't throw a procedural spanner in the works?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374
    Andy_JS said:

    The economist (and paper reviewer) Ruth Lea was on Five Live just now and says she will refuse to self-isolate completely, and would prefer to end up in Holloway jail if they make it compulsory.

    https://twitter.com/RuthLeaEcon

    A rather selfish attitude. I hope she has been considerate enough to have a bracelet made up saying that she doesn't want to bother with blocking a bed...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,037

    Floater said:

    Telegraph live blog:

    The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a leaked Public Health England document has claimed.

    The document, seen by The Guardian, says as much as 80 per cent of the population could be infected, and 15 per cent hospitalised.

    The briefing contrasts with Prof Chris Whitty's previous statement that the 80 per cent was a "worse case scenario", telling PHE officials that many are "expected" to contract Covid-19.

    The document says the epidemic could last until spring 2021, later than originally thought.

    FFS, the government are now going to have to waste a day firefighting over the word "expected".

    My guess would be that what it actually is about is PHE have to work out a response based upon an expected 80%, as that is the upper bound that has been predicted by the models. If they made plans based on 20%, the media would be screaming but but but the upper bound is 80%.

    And again, Witty and co were quite clear they said wave one was 12 weeks, but they expected multiple waves.

    I f##king said the media would do this if they got the documents.
    If they expect multiple waves why put up a graph with a single peak? The double hump graph was for an 'Italian' approach.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Tonight, I am struggling to understand why Boris Johnson was so desperate to be Prime Minister. I get why someone like Matt Hancock chose the path he did, but Johnson is a puzzler. What was the point?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Pulpstar said:

    stodge said:

    RobD said:

    It's all unravelling.

    This Gov't is a shitshower.

    No, it isn't. And constantly repeating it doesn't make it true.
    And constantly leaping to its defence every time someone has the temerity to criticise it doesn't make the Government right.
    There are some genuine criticisms from the experts in this. The WHO do not like the idea the UK have decided to abandon the idea of mass testing. This is legitimate to ask the government why this change in strategy.
    My friend (Who we're doing the horses for at the moment) has

    Dry cough, fever, recent contact with someone from Italy.

    Not tested. Surely that's wrong ? I mean 99% it's a positive result but without the test there's no definite info for for instance the local school where their youngest kid went to to make decisions with the most knowledge.
    If you expect tens of thousands of people a day to contract this, at what point do you stop testing the general public and concentrate on testing at hospitals?

    I am actually partly in agreement with you to the extent the message is confused and I am not sure it is the right thing to do (stopping testing). But at some point it simply becomes impractical.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
    Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.

    Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
    None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    Same reason that I went out for dinner last night, and to church this morning. It may be the last chance for a while.

    Are NHS staff in some areas currently being tested across the board before showing any symptoms ?

    Not even with symptoms at many Trusts.
    I've hesitated to get involved in other policy questions about this, but that one seems an unmistakeable failure.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Quick question re Italy and Spain lockdowns: do they have a list of jobs which are excluded? Health workers and emergency services obviously must be exempt but what about all those involved in formulating and executing policy? Also utility workers, farmers, vets, I could go on...?


    You have to submit an online form....my friend works in telecoms and he can get to his office (I think to get away from his wife to be honest...but that's another matter)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,385

    Given the behaviour of the media so far, I bet if we do have city lock-downs the tw@ts will leak it.

    The press and broadcast media have been like rabid dogs, foaming at the mouth for any escalation of the story.

    Just let Johnson do his job!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour of a government announcement set for Tuesday?

    What could this be?
    And why wait until Tuesday? If they are planning it, they clearly have in mind what they're going to say.
    Emergency legislation is being introduced to the house tomorrow, and i presume will be passed into law tomorrow or Tuesday.
    Well ok that's a plausible reason, although it puzzled me that parliament didn't just sit through the weekend to get that done, as it's an emergency.

    PS has somebody squared any emergency legislation with Christopher Chope so that he doesn't throw a procedural spanner in the works?
    They are taking about some very very serious powers being given to the state. I imagine the legalities are far from straight forward and it is better to try and get them right rather than rush them too much.

    I know they asked Ashworth to meet with them as well, so they also want to know the opposition are on board...good job Richard Burgon isn't in charge, as we would have to wait for the result of a 3 month referendum of Labour members before we would know.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,374

    Tonight, I am struggling to understand why Boris Johnson was so desperate to be Prime Minister. I get why someone like Matt Hancock chose the path he did, but Johnson is a puzzler. What was the point?

    Because he thought he could do a good job. Its what all politicians think - the ones I've met anyway.

    Boris doesn't dream of reading and re-gurgitating un-comprehended 10,000 pages of briefings. That doesn't mean he didn't want the job.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,119
    edited March 2020

    Floater said:

    Telegraph live blog:

    The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a leaked Public Health England document has claimed.

    The document, seen by The Guardian, says as much as 80 per cent of the population could be infected, and 15 per cent hospitalised.

    The briefing contrasts with Prof Chris Whitty's previous statement that the 80 per cent was a "worse case scenario", telling PHE officials that many are "expected" to contract Covid-19.

    The document says the epidemic could last until spring 2021, later than originally thought.

    FFS, the government are now going to have to waste a day firefighting over the word "expected".

    My guess would be that what it actually is about is PHE have to work out a response based upon an expected 80%, as that is the upper bound that has been predicted by the models. If they made plans based on 20%, the media would be screaming but but but the upper bound is 80%.

    And again, Witty and co were quite clear they said wave one was 12 weeks, but they expected multiple waves.

    I f##king said the media would do this if they got the documents.
    If they expect multiple waves why put up a graph with a single peak? The double hump graph was for an 'Italian' approach.
    Two different things. The government concern we could get either you get one massive front loaded spike with no action, or a series a waves in a single "season" that you don't actually get through because you shut down, release, it comes back, shut down, release.

    Witty has been clear he wants to flatten this off to a single "peak" for this season, but he thinks it will be seasonal and back again next winter / spring.

    The government hope is to get through this in 3 months, it really cool off, have time to build capacity and prepare for a return in 9 months.

    They worry just shutting things down will result in a new peak every 2-3 months throughout the year.

    The talk of a vaccine is 12-18 months minimum, so shock of shock horrors of coincidences that PHE planning through 2021.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    France is also moving towards a herd immunity approach as without building up immunity amongst the able bodied a second wave in the winter will put huge pressure on the health service, even if this wave of Covid 19 slows down about June.

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/la-france-mise-sur-l-immunite-de-groupe-pour-arreter-le-coronavirus-20200313

    Meanwhile the government is sensibly preparing to self isolate the more vulnerable ie the elderly and those with pre existing health conditions

    Two questions if I may:

    1) If we are able to self-isolate large numbers in the short term and the virus returns in the winter, will said individuals have to self-isolate again as they will still have no resistance to the virus?

    2) Are you advocating able bodied people actively seek those with the virus to get infected? That's how it sounds - to achieve the kind of immunity being suggested around 60% or so need to be infected. Currently we are a very long way from that. If you want to develop "herd immunity", remove all restrictions and let the virus run through the population. There will be some deaths but the vast majority will be fine for next winter. Is that Government policy?
    1) Yes, the elderly and those with pre existing health conditions will have to self isolate again.

    2) No, the economic consequences woild be too damaging of actively encouraging infection but that does not mean they cannot develop natural immunity
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    edited March 2020
    stodge said:

    Nothing like trying it a second time, The Donald must be happy gets to refinance all his gold towers on the cheap.
    Presumably this will mean a strong opening on the markets in the morning though it wreaks of desperation and sounds a bit like what Draghi had to do to protect the Euro.

    Trump must be aware a failing economy undermines his chances in the autumn so he is throwing all kinds of stimulus at it now.
    Will it? To me this seems exactly like last week. Donnie and co were screaming about their market pumping super weapon only for the curtains to be wrenched off and all we see is an orange nightmare brandishing fuck all.

    It doesn't seem a coincidence that all their pump and dump schemes are released just before the market closes or an hour before futures open.

    What epidemiological fundamentals has this changed? Hundreds of thousands of Americans are still gonna die and supply and demand are choking.

    Edit S&P futures opening red
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570

    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Herd mentality: it used to be said by purchasing managers in the 80s that "no-one got sacked for choosing IBM" (re desktops) even though they were much poorer value for money than the alternatives. Your argument is like that.

    But yes, Boris and the boffins must persuade Joe Public about the policy. Fortunately he has time on his hands, electorally speaking. The Mediterranean policy of trying to eradicate by shut-down may be intended to look like decisive action now because the electoral ballot box is more imminent for them, but it could well be seen as inadequate in the medium term when successive waves of the epidemic wash over them.

    Re the Med countries: this isn't about them trying to look decisive, they really don't have any choice. Once you have more than 3,000 cases in the Province of Bergamo (pop 1.1m), and your intensive care units are overloaded, then you have to shut everything down.
    True, but there is a push to get us to follow them - trying to put a lid on it by quarantining whole cities/countries with travel restrictions, closing schools restaurants etc. That is a bad idea.
    I wonder how many of the people demanding lockdowns have themselves self-isolated or even bother to wash their hands properly.
    I have been washing my hands furiously for weeks, indeed to the point that I have bought the first hand cream of my life, to restore them each night for another days work.

    I cannot self isolate, so am mending my ways on diet, exercise and alcohol so as to be in the fittest state when I catch it. I am rather hoping that health workers will get some ICU priority if needed.
    The skin on my hands is really badly cracked...obviously all this washing and the fact as my father tells me that I have never done a proper days work in my life to harden them up.
    Norwegian Formula hand cream is the tops.
    Yep used it for years. Doing Archaeology work means washing hands a huge amount even when you have been wearing gloves. For a long time it was quite painful much of the time until someone recommended Norwegian Formula. I know it sounds like an advert but it really does work wonders.
    Did you say you were going to be on a Channel 5 program ?

    If so could you give details ?
    Will do when I know. They said the morning's filming we did would amount to a few minutes in the actual programme so don't expect anything spectacular. :)
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    One of my sons runs a bar - he tells me this weekend was the busiest since Xmas

    I despair, I really do.

    Same reason that I went out for dinner last night, and to church this morning. It may be the last chance for a while.

    Are NHS staff in some areas currently being tested across the board before showing any symptoms ?

    Not even with symptoms at many Trusts.
    I've hesitated to get involved in other policy questions about this, but that one seems an unmistakeable failure.
    Why? We know NHS staff on the frontline will get the virus.

    I don't think you quite understand how poorly prepared our NHS is for this crisis?

    A big reason to keep the schools open is to keep the staff on the frontline....
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Is there a lesson to be learned at all about the reaping of whirlwinds?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Quick question re Italy and Spain lockdowns: do they have a list of jobs which are excluded? Health workers and emergency services obviously must be exempt but what about all those involved in formulating and executing policy? Also utility workers, farmers, vets, I could go on...?

    It’s a little unclear about who can work, will know more in the morning as I go to the supermarket, vets open as are key utilities and technology providers, they won’t leave the crops to rot providing they still have a market. Clearly 95% of retail operations are shut. There are meetings between unions and management in a number of factories tomorrow. It’s hard to keep up hairdressers we’re excluded yesterday but included today.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    UK doctor on recovering from 'grim' coronavirus
    A former chair of the Royal College of GPs has told Radio 5 Live Breakfast about how she's getting through a "grim" coronavirus experience.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51886553/uk-doctor-on-recovering-from-grim-coronavirus
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.

    The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
    Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.

    Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
    None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html
    They probably are saved by adequate supplies of hot broth.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,709
    Gabs3 said:

    Seattle is getting very bad. A must read thread:

    https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290389963714562

    This ties in with the report of the 47 year old paramedic dying from a heart attack.

    https://twitter.com/scott_mintzer/status/1239290400109666305
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Out of hours markets falling back from Friday’s recovery
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    OnboardG1 said:

    Evening all. I noticed that the government is trying to get manufacturers to switch over to making ventilators. That possibly shows a lack of understanding of modern engineering and manufacturing but ho hum what are we to expect.

    The good news is they probably can do it but they need a really good base design that they can simplify for mass manufacture and then subdivide components for distributed manufacture. Then they need to buy every stobart lorry's capacity and start trucking. I'm not entirely convinced that this government can manage that given they struggled to stage a Potemkin traffic jam in Dover.


    That story was just obviously just bollox......

    We'll have to ship them in from China\...but the fake news nationalist bullshit sounds better
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    I'm scared.

    I admit it. I'm scared.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited March 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
    Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.

    Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
    None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html
    Given the undeniable fact that the outbreak has started at the exact same time all over the world, this is incontrovertable evidence that 'the summer will save us'.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,601
    I've always wondered why US press conferences are seemingly unable to take place without about 30 people standing behind the person giving it. Just one of those cultural differences I suppose.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    I’m coming to conclusion that people like Peston are not malicious, they are just not very bright. What’s the point of briefing at length if nobody listens?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    IanB2 said:

    Out of hours markets falling back from Friday’s recovery

    Unsurprising given it was a big rise on Friday and the news since has been unremittingly bad. The panic rate cut just reinforces how bad things must be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    In a way, the virus has come at a bad time. If it were September, the easy decision - shutting everything down would be the right thing to do. Instead, the powers that be need to decide how much we need to use the summer that is approaching.

    From what I see of Australia and Brazil, and other places in Latin America, I cannot see a British summer saving us.
    Almost all the Australian cases came from those who had travelled abroad
    Yep, same as us a couple of weeks ago.

    Plenty of cases in Florida, Southern California, Central and Sourh America now, locally acquired.
    None of the top 10 countries for coronavirus cases are in Latin America, Southern Africa or Australiasia where it is currently summer

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html
    They probably are saved by adequate supplies of hot broth.
    They have far fewer cases as quite clearly the virus weakens and is less virulent when the climate is warmer
This discussion has been closed.