So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.
We stride the world.
Except it won't be like that. We will be the dumbasses who thought we knew best, better than the Chinese scientists and epidemiologists who deal with this kind of threat every day of every year.
The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.
We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
Why does Biden's eyes look like he's possessed by Satan?
That's a sign that he's locked up the nomination, Satan doesn't usually possess the candidate until projections show an overwhelming delegate lead. Famously he didn't enter Richard Nixon until the second day of the 1968 Republican Convention, due to the ongoing challenge from New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller.
Still, interesting that Satan has given up on Bernie....
There's a definite Brexit angle. It's us trying to think we can go it alone. That we're so smart that we can lead the world.
Well we can't and we don't. It's just taking time for it to sink in.
Wanting to escape from a trading bloc that has shown itself to have no coherent message on Covid-19 is not dependent on thinking we have to lead the world once we leave.
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
I do see a Brexit angle. I was a staunch remainer and I still support British EU membership. However the economic disruption caused by the reaction to the virus (not by the virus itself) is far greater than even a no-deal Brexit would have caused. I can now see that a no-deal Brexit would be perfectly manageable even though I do not support it.
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
I do see a Brexit angle. I was a staunch remainer and I still support British EU membership. However the economic disruption caused by the reaction to the virus (not by the virus itself) is far greater than even a no-deal Brexit would have caused. I can now see that a no-deal Brexit would be perfectly manageable even though I do not support it.
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
Whilst I agree with much of that, and indeed have been saying much of it for a long time, I fear the idea that this virus will be a non story by the summer is very optimistic. My expectation is that by then several hundred Britons a day will be dying of it, possibly more.
Why does Biden's eyes look like he's possessed by Satan?
That's a sign that he's locked up the nomination, Satan doesn't usually possess the candidate until projections show an overwhelming delegate lead. Famously he didn't enter Richard Nixon until the second day of the 1968 Republican Convention, due to the ongoing challenge from New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller.
Still, interesting that Satan has given up on Bernie....
I wouldn't get too worried. He's got plenty of cover in this race.
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
I do see a Brexit angle. I was a staunch remainer and I still support British EU membership. However the economic disruption caused by the reaction to the virus (not by the virus itself) is far greater than even a no-deal Brexit would have caused. I can now see that a no-deal Brexit would be perfectly manageable even though I do not support it.
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
The people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit were not a bunch of random twitterers but were in fact Her Majesty's Government. Complaints should be sent to 10 Downing Street, London SW1, where Boris will forward them to his two Conservative predecessors.
Am I the only one oscillating between “am I feeling slightly warm? I’m about to die” and “I wonder when the optimal time will be to buy a flat in London again?”
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
I do see a Brexit angle. I was a staunch remainer and I still support British EU membership. However the economic disruption caused by the reaction to the virus (not by the virus itself) is far greater than even a no-deal Brexit would have caused. I can now see that a no-deal Brexit would be perfectly manageable even though I do not support it.
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
The people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit were not a bunch of random twitterers but were in fact Her Majesty's Government. Complaints should be sent to 10 Downing Street, London SW1, where Boris will forward them to his two Conservative predecessors.
In fairness, it was his Brexit positioning that allowed him to run as a quasi-insurgent, despite his party having been in power for a decade. For all his greater mastery of detail, there’s no way Hunt could have done that.
If Biden is committing to a woman VP, and he doesn't really need to do that right now, it suggests he's already chosen his VP.
Why would he already have chosen his VP? Because it was part of a deal he made with someone.
Who had something he needed? Baemy, Buttiegieg and Warren. But Buttigieg is no lady, while Warren is still in.
It's KLOBUCHAR.
That’s no how it usually works, though. No one makes deals like that; rather the losing candidates hope to gain credit for their noble sacrifice pulling out of the race in favour of party unity... The candidate then picks who they want.
Even Sanders seems to be leaving wiggle room to endorse:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/biden-debate-female-veep-131610 Instead, Sanders portrayed Biden as well-intentioned but timid. On climate change, for instance, he told Biden: “I know your heart is in the right place, but this requires dramatic, bold action. We've got to take on the fossil fuel industry. Your plan does not do that.”
This is hardly the kind of language that is impossible to walk back, or that gets in the way of an eventual endorsement, which Sanders says he will give to Biden if his own comeback plans don’t materialize....
Am I the only one oscillating between “am I feeling slightly warm? I’m about to die” and “I wonder when the optimal time will be to buy a flat in London again?”
Are you in a high risk group? I thought you were a 50-something in reasonable health - your odds should be pretty good.
This is probably going to sound a little eccentric, but there’s a part of me that wants to catch this bug sooner rather than later just to get it over with.
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
I do see a Brexit angle. I was a staunch remainer and I still support British EU membership. However the economic disruption caused by the reaction to the virus (not by the virus itself) is far greater than even a no-deal Brexit would have caused. I can now see that a no-deal Brexit would be perfectly manageable even though I do not support it.
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
Whilst I agree with much of that, and indeed have been saying much of it for a long time, I fear the idea that this virus will be a non story by the summer is very optimistic. My expectation is that by then several hundred Britons a day will be dying of it, possibly more.
Ironically, by then journalists will be struggling for an angle.
If Biden is committing to a woman VP, and he doesn't really need to do that right now, it suggests he's already chosen his VP.
Why would he already have chosen his VP? Because it was part of a deal he made with someone.
Who had something he needed? Baemy, Buttiegieg and Warren. But Buttigieg is no lady, while Warren is still in.
It's KLOBUCHAR.
That’s no how it usually works, though. No one makes deals like that; rather the losing candidates hope to gain credit for their noble sacrifice pulling out of the race in favour of party unity... The candidate then picks who they want.
Even Sanders seems to be leaving wiggle room to endorse:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/biden-debate-female-veep-131610 Instead, Sanders portrayed Biden as well-intentioned but timid. On climate change, for instance, he told Biden: “I know your heart is in the right place, but this requires dramatic, bold action. We've got to take on the fossil fuel industry. Your plan does not do that.”
This is hardly the kind of language that is impossible to walk back, or that gets in the way of an eventual endorsement, which Sanders says he will give to Biden if his own comeback plans don’t materialize....
Need to check on my Harris for president bet....
It's not how it *usually* works, but with the exception of 1992 (which was wild) the field usually winnows itself early on rather than having several similar candidates left before Super Tuesday who have to settle the thing with a game of scissors-paper-stone to avoid splitting the vote and giving it to the other faction.
I am surprised no one has written an alternative history thread header as to what would be happening differently if Corbyn had won Decembers GE
Darren Grimes would be posting pictures of empty shelves going "this is what happens under socialism" as opposed to now where he posts pictures of empty shelves going "this is what would happen under Corbyn's socialism"
Am I the only one oscillating between “am I feeling slightly warm? I’m about to die” and “I wonder when the optimal time will be to buy a flat in London again?”
Are you in a high risk group? I thought you were a 50-something in reasonable health - your odds should be pretty good.
This is probably going to sound a little eccentric, but there’s a part of me that wants to catch this bug sooner rather than later just to get it over with.
I’m exaggerating a little for effect. But I do go from worrying about whether I’m catching it to seeing opportunities on the far side.
The time to get Covid-19 if you’re not in a high risk group is at a time when the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. That means early or late. Your wish to get it over and done with is logical enough, particularly as we can’t completely control whether we get it in the intervening period.
It's ironic that the UK is one of the few countries in Europe that still has open borders.
Indeed.
I think the common thread is that Brexit was a throwback to when Britannia ruled the waves. We think we are a mighty nation and can lead the world.
Instead of which, we are getting left behind by them.
Personally I fail to see the Brexit angle to this.
There's no Brexit angle. And in a short while I think Britain will have followed the pretty much same measures as its European neighbours, who also failed to follow Asian examples, so the argument about British coronavirus exceptionalism will be forgotten. The idiotic talk the government stupidly encouraged for a few days about seeming to aim to reach herd immunity quicker will also be forgotten
I do see a Brexit angle. I was a staunch remainer and I still support British EU membership. However the economic disruption caused by the reaction to the virus (not by the virus itself) is far greater than even a no-deal Brexit would have caused. I can now see that a no-deal Brexit would be perfectly manageable even though I do not support it.
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
The coronavirus is an absolute disaster from an economic perspective. It is going to destroy a lot of businesses and ruin a lot of retirements. It’s happening as supply chains remain open. I am not sure it teaches anything about a No Deal Brexit - except we now know that concern about shortages in the shops induces panic buying.
Am I the only one oscillating between “am I feeling slightly warm? I’m about to die” and “I wonder when the optimal time will be to buy a flat in London again?”
Are you in a high risk group? I thought you were a 50-something in reasonable health - your odds should be pretty good.
This is probably going to sound a little eccentric, but there’s a part of me that wants to catch this bug sooner rather than later just to get it over with.
I’m exaggerating a little for effect. But I do go from worrying about whether I’m catching it to seeing opportunities on the far side.
The time to get Covid-19 if you’re not in a high risk group is at a time when the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. That means early or late. Your wish to get it over and done with is logical enough, particularly as we can’t completely control whether we get it in the intervening period.
If your recovery strategy is buying property, might I suggest that there’s no rush. Indeed we can probably add estate agents to the list of professions who aren’t going to see much business this summer.
If we are speculating about wider impacts, I am thinking that in the worse case scenarios (I.e. something like northern Italy), things are going to seem much worse in the cities - transmission will be faster in cities and, although the hospitals have more equipment and expertise, they are going to be overwhelmed in short order. Any social breakdown will likely be seen in cities. I wonder whether the crisis will see a reappraisal of the London-country balance and we might return to a 1970s perspective where moving out of London is seen as an aspiration. Living in the country might regain its popularity for working age people, helped along by technology.
It's not how it *usually* works, but with the exception of 1992 (which was wild) the field usually winnows itself early on rather than having several similar candidates left before Super Tuesday who have to settle the thing with a game of scissors-paper-stone to avoid splitting the vote and giving it to the other faction.
Also on "usually", can anyone think of any previous case where a candidate has constrained themselves on their VP selection before they do the vetting and officially make the pick?
"Public face £1,000 fine or custody for refusing coronavirus tests and quarantine Emergency powers will give police right to use 'reasonable force' to detain the infected
People aged over 70 face up to four months in self-isolation and the public risk being taken into jail or a £1,000 fine if they refuse to be tested or quarantined for suspected coronavirus."
Am I the only one oscillating between “am I feeling slightly warm? I’m about to die” and “I wonder when the optimal time will be to buy a flat in London again?”
Are you in a high risk group? I thought you were a 50-something in reasonable health - your odds should be pretty good.
This is probably going to sound a little eccentric, but there’s a part of me that wants to catch this bug sooner rather than later just to get it over with.
It doesn't sound eccentric at all, I'm bored of it and would like to get it, defeat it, and be immune to it already.
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
Low interest rates keep businesses afloat for longer but don’t do much to generate customers.
It's not just interest rates though. They are pumping quite a lot of money into the economy to keep liquidity going too. But I agree that doesn't of itself create customers either. People are not going out, not travelling, not spending (except on toilet paper) and being very cautious. I bet car sales, for example, will have fallen off a cliff. Ditto houses.
If Biden is committing to a woman VP, and he doesn't really need to do that right now, it suggests he's already chosen his VP.
Why would he already have chosen his VP? Because it was part of a deal he made with someone.
Who had something he needed? Baemy, Buttiegieg and Warren. But Buttigieg is no lady, while Warren is still in.
It's KLOBUCHAR.
That’s no how it usually works, though. No one makes deals like that; rather the losing candidates hope to gain credit for their noble sacrifice pulling out of the race in favour of party unity... The candidate then picks who they want.
Even Sanders seems to be leaving wiggle room to endorse:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/biden-debate-female-veep-131610 Instead, Sanders portrayed Biden as well-intentioned but timid. On climate change, for instance, he told Biden: “I know your heart is in the right place, but this requires dramatic, bold action. We've got to take on the fossil fuel industry. Your plan does not do that.”
This is hardly the kind of language that is impossible to walk back, or that gets in the way of an eventual endorsement, which Sanders says he will give to Biden if his own comeback plans don’t materialize....
Need to check on my Harris for president bet....
It's not how it *usually* works, but with the exception of 1992 (which was wild) the field usually winnows itself early on rather than having several similar candidates left before Super Tuesday who have to settle the thing with a game of scissors-paper-stone to avoid splitting the vote and giving it to the other faction.
I seriously doubt any deal has been done, nonetheless. The VP will only get picked after a lengthy pre-vetting process and a lot more horse trading.
So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.
We stride the world.
Except it won't be like that. We will be the dumbasses who thought we knew best, better than the Chinese scientists and epidemiologists who deal with this kind of threat every day of every year.
The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.
We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
The only beacon from China is a virus creation beacon.
An authoritarian “hi tech” state which failed to stop wet markets selling bats and dogs to eat in 2020.
The UN should be expelling them for crimes against humanity.
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
Low interest rates keep businesses afloat for longer but don’t do much to generate customers.
It's not just interest rates though. They are pumping quite a lot of money into the economy to keep liquidity going too. But I agree that doesn't of itself create customers either. People are not going out, not travelling, not spending (except on toilet paper) and being very cautious. I bet car sales, for example, will have fallen off a cliff. Ditto houses.
The Guardian continues to give almost central prominence to the 7.9 million hospitalised figure, with presumably little thought for the social, psychological and economic consequences of emphasising one of the most extreme ends of the scenario at this stage of the disease. For a paper with its history, the quality of its reporting has at times been very disappointing so far.
Biden is occasionally forgetful, like most people his age.
And if Biden were running for President of his local bowls club (do they play that in America?) then there would be no concern.
But he’s running for President of the United States, with the ability to wipe most countries off the face of the earth with the push of a button. You can see how people might get a bit concerned about him being “occasionally” forgetful.
Here's a quote that sums things up nicely. "The thing is if shutdowns and social distancing work perfectly and are extremely effective it will seem in retrospect like they were totally unnecessary overreactions."
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
I agree. There are very few sectors of the economy which won’t be touched by this. Some will get klobbered.
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
Chinese Retail was down 20% in February/March. Manufacturing down 30%+
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
It could be up this month due to panic buying.
You have to buy a hell of a lot of toilet paper to offset the car you chose not to purchase with the finance loan attached. Or the holiday you didn't book, or the wedding that was cancelled (my daughter was due to be a bridesmaid next month but its gone), or the weekend away, or even the lunch that you might have bought if you weren't working from home. Demand has collapsed and is a major element of GDP.
Hmm. Is the Hammersmith & City a little quieter this morning? Maybe I’m just looking at my surroundings with more than usual interest. The absence of unsolicited physical intimacy feels atypical, though.
Here's a quote that sums things up nicely. "The thing is if shutdowns and social distancing work perfectly and are extremely effective it will seem in retrospect like they were totally unnecessary overreactions."
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
Chinese Retail was down 20% in February/March. Manufacturing down 30%+
Those NO2 pictures suggested that + is doing quite a lot of work.
Beginning to think we'd be better off if the Government brought forward its plans and immediately quarantined Peston for at least six months. Perhaps eight, to be safe. He could share a fenced off house with Piers Morgan.
The other thing about this is that since we don't really know which of the many things people stopped doing were relevant, and they had to stop doing them in a hurry with minimal preparation, it's likely that a lot of them weren't actually helping.
Just to pull an example out of my arse (don't use this to guide your decisions, obviously), if you look at the live patient database on covid19japan.com, a huge number of the later cases come from somewhere like a live music event (one cluster in Osaka, another in Hokkaido, both spreading all over the place) or a gym. Once there's more data it might turn out that the subset of changes you have to make to keep the spread of this thing down to reasonable levels is hardly disruptive at all.
The other thing about this is that since we don't really know which of the many things people stopped doing were relevant, and they had to stop doing them in a hurry with minimal preparation, it's likely that a lot of them weren't actually helping.
Just to pull an example out of my arse (don't use this to guide your decisions, obviously), if you look at the live patient database on covid19japan.com, a huge number of the later cases come from somewhere like a live music event (one cluster in Osaka, another in Hokkaido, both spreading all over the place) or a gym. Once there's more data it might turn out that the subset of changes you have to make to keep the spread of this thing down to reasonable levels is hardly disruptive at all.
To have any idea of that, you have to keep up track and trace, which we’ve abandoned.
It's not how it *usually* works, but with the exception of 1992 (which was wild) the field usually winnows itself early on rather than having several similar candidates left before Super Tuesday who have to settle the thing with a game of scissors-paper-stone to avoid splitting the vote and giving it to the other faction.
Also on "usually", can anyone think of any previous case where a candidate has constrained themselves on their VP selection before they do the vetting and officially make the pick?
I didn't know it off-hand but Reagan did this in 1976, before the convention and when he still had a shot. Senator Richard Schweiker of Pennsylvania, another name washed away by history.
Anyway, since Walter Mondale did it back in 1984, the Dems should hold off on trumpeting how ground-breaking it is. And it passive-aggressively swipes the legs out on anyone claiming they were chosen simply on merit.
Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.
I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.
It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
Chinese Retail was down 20% in February/March. Manufacturing down 30%+
Those NO2 pictures suggested that + is doing quite a lot of work.
Apols - correction. Figures for Jan/Feb (not Feb/March)
- retail down 20.5% - industrial output down 13.5% - fixed investment down 24.5% (was +5.4%)
Yes and no. It needs to be noted that:(a) Bergamo has 5x the population of Lodi and (b) the original full lockdown applied to only around 1/4 of the population of Lodi.
I do think earlier lockdown of affected comuni south of Bergamo would probably have been helpful, but this graph could equally be argued as showing slower, more gradual onset in Bergamo and now catching up.
It's not how it *usually* works, but with the exception of 1992 (which was wild) the field usually winnows itself early on rather than having several similar candidates left before Super Tuesday who have to settle the thing with a game of scissors-paper-stone to avoid splitting the vote and giving it to the other faction.
Also on "usually", can anyone think of any previous case where a candidate has constrained themselves on their VP selection before they do the vetting and officially make the pick?
Yes and no. It needs to be noted that:(a) Bergamo has 5x the population of Lodi and (b) the full lockdown applied to only around 1/4 of the population of Lodi.
I do think lockdown of affected comuni south of Bergamo would probably have been helpful, but this graph could equally be argued as showing slower, more gradual onset in Bergamo and now catching up.
Yeah, surely as a proportion of the population the Lodi figures are comparable or worse than Bergamo.
Yes and no. It needs to be noted that:(a) Bergamo has 5x the population of Lodi and (b) the original full lockdown applied to only around 1/4 of the population of Lodi.
I do think lockdown of affected comuni south of Bergamo would probably have been helpful, but this graph could equally be argued as showing slower, more gradual onset in Bergamo and now catching up.
You've lived up to your alias here with that post! Scaled by population it looks like the reverse could be claimed.
Hmm. Is the Hammersmith & City a little quieter this morning? Maybe I’m just looking at my surroundings with more than usual interest. The absence of unsolicited physical intimacy feels atypical, though.
Normally crowded southwest train. Be surprised if 1/2 of the seats were occupied. I’m standing.
Yes and no. It needs to be noted that:(a) Bergamo has 5x the population of Lodi and (b) the original full lockdown applied to only around 1/4 of the population of Lodi.
I do think lockdown of affected comuni south of Bergamo would probably have been helpful, but this graph could equally be argued as showing slower, more gradual onset in Bergamo and now catching up.
You've lived up to your alias here with that post! Scaled by population it looks like the reverse could be claimed.
It should also be noted that Lodi province's reported numbers have crept up again in the last 48 hours, 1330 on sSunday against 1123 on Friday
Jerome Salomon, France’s top health official, has said his country is struggling to curb the spread of coronavirus, after many Parisians ventured out in large numbers on Sunday despite official advice to stay at home.
The world needs to pay more attention to South Korea, I think.
"South Korea reports its third day where recoveries exceed new cases, despite new cluster near Seoul
South Korea has reported its third day when recoveries have outstripped infections, but a new cluster of infections has surfaced in Seongnam city, south of Seoul. At least 40 members of a Protestant church tested positive, including the pastor, after services on 1 March and 8 March, despite government calls to cancel mass gatherings.
New infections have been on a declining trajectory, with the latest figures well below a 29 February peak of 909, and slightly down from 76 on Sunday.
“For three straight days we have seen more numbers of discharged than newly confirmed, but we should not forget the lessons we’ve learned,” the vice health minister Kim Gang-lip told a briefing.
The world needs to pay more attention to South Korea, I think.
"South Korea reports its third day where recoveries exceed new cases, despite new cluster near Seoul
South Korea has reported its third day when recoveries have outstripped infections, but a new cluster of infections has surfaced in Seongnam city, south of Seoul. At least 40 members of a Protestant church tested positive, including the pastor, after services on 1 March and 8 March, despite government calls to cancel mass gatherings.
New infections have been on a declining trajectory, with the latest figures well below a 29 February peak of 909, and slightly down from 76 on Sunday.
“For three straight days we have seen more numbers of discharged than newly confirmed, but we should not forget the lessons we’ve learned,” the vice health minister Kim Gang-lip told a briefing.
Have they taken any lockdown measures? Or is it down to much more testing?
1. Gym noticeably quieter this morning with fewer pensioners. 2. Roads noticeably quieter this morning. Makes life easier for those of us who need to work not from home 3. Talk up thread about interest rates and liquidity. They are going to have to implement a debt holiday. Lower interest rates does nothing if your business is drying up as people suspend their normal operations.
You can keep going with a lower income - cut your outgoings! For both people and businesses a lot of outgoings are debt - mortgage, loans, capex etc. These aircraft that are about to be parked up won't be owned outright by the airlines. Most businesses rent, most people rent or pay a mortgage, then we have loans for so many things.
If incomes are to drop through the floor then to avoid mass personal and business bankruptcy we need a debt holiday. Let the remaining liquid cash in circulation keep circulating not be repaid to the banks. Which means the government step in, float the banks off the rocks in exchange for a moratorium on all lending repayments until this is all over.
Whats more this needs to happen worldwide. Big businesses are global, smaller businesses buy global. We can lock down our physical borders but the electronic movement of money is unaffected. Something that Bozza could suggest at the G7 whilst looking at that flying pig out the window...
The world needs to pay more attention to South Korea, I think.
"South Korea reports its third day where recoveries exceed new cases, despite new cluster near Seoul
South Korea has reported its third day when recoveries have outstripped infections, but a new cluster of infections has surfaced in Seongnam city, south of Seoul. At least 40 members of a Protestant church tested positive, including the pastor, after services on 1 March and 8 March, despite government calls to cancel mass gatherings.
New infections have been on a declining trajectory, with the latest figures well below a 29 February peak of 909, and slightly down from 76 on Sunday.
“For three straight days we have seen more numbers of discharged than newly confirmed, but we should not forget the lessons we’ve learned,” the vice health minister Kim Gang-lip told a briefing.
Have they taken any lockdown measures? Or is it down to much more testing?
Some posters here may have more details of their approach.
We could apparently soon arrive in a situation soon where China , South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan are recovering economically, but Europe, the USA and other parts of the world going into a slump.
Comments
The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.
We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
Saner of the brothers, tbh.
Well we can't and we don't. It's just taking time for it to sink in.
Someone's had a broken night's sleep.....
Yet there were so many people prophesying doom in the event of a no-deal Brexit. I no longer trust journalists and opinion-formers on social media who forecast disaster but who cannot marshal the facts, logic, and scientific ability and training to adequately prove their point, especially when they have a vested interest in creating a story. Up to now I support the government in its handling of this crisis, and I hope that it will continue to follow the advice of its expert advisers. I also predict that interest in the coronavirus story will start to drain away by the summer, and life will begin to return to normal at which point the journalists will find a new disaster to report on.
https://twitter.com/lefoudubaron/status/1239445441663696896?s=20
Miss Vance, interesting time, and it was pretty close to the Great Fire of London too.
"Thanks Mark - not the start I predicted!"
The candidate then picks who they want.
Even Sanders seems to be leaving wiggle room to endorse:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/biden-debate-female-veep-131610
Instead, Sanders portrayed Biden as well-intentioned but timid. On climate change, for instance, he told Biden: “I know your heart is in the right place, but this requires dramatic, bold action. We've got to take on the fossil fuel industry. Your plan does not do that.”
This is hardly the kind of language that is impossible to walk back, or that gets in the way of an eventual endorsement, which Sanders says he will give to Biden if his own comeback plans don’t materialize....
Need to check on my Harris for president bet....
This is probably going to sound a little eccentric, but there’s a part of me that wants to catch this bug sooner rather than later just to get it over with.
The time to get Covid-19 if you’re not in a high risk group is at a time when the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. That means early or late. Your wish to get it over and done with is logical enough, particularly as we can’t completely control whether we get it in the intervening period.
If we are speculating about wider impacts, I am thinking that in the worse case scenarios (I.e. something like northern Italy), things are going to seem much worse in the cities - transmission will be faster in cities and, although the hospitals have more equipment and expertise, they are going to be overwhelmed in short order. Any social breakdown will likely be seen in cities. I wonder whether the crisis will see a reappraisal of the London-country balance and we might return to a 1970s perspective where moving out of London is seen as an aspiration. Living in the country might regain its popularity for working age people, helped along by technology.
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
The VP will only get picked after a lengthy pre-vetting process and a lot more horse trading.
An authoritarian “hi tech” state which failed to stop wet markets selling bats and dogs to eat in 2020.
The UN should be expelling them for crimes against humanity.
But he’s running for President of the United States, with the ability to wipe most countries off the face of the earth with the push of a button. You can see how people might get a bit concerned about him being “occasionally” forgetful.
"The thing is if shutdowns and social distancing work perfectly and are extremely effective it will seem in retrospect like they were totally unnecessary overreactions."
A good example is Y2K.
The government are going to need to freeze all interest payments and rents, and guarantee a universal basic income.
There are very few sectors of the economy which won’t be touched by this. Some will get klobbered.
Just to pull an example out of my arse (don't use this to guide your decisions, obviously), if you look at the live patient database on covid19japan.com, a huge number of the later cases come from somewhere like a live music event (one cluster in Osaka, another in Hokkaido, both spreading all over the place) or a gym. Once there's more data it might turn out that the subset of changes you have to make to keep the spread of this thing down to reasonable levels is hardly disruptive at all.
Anyway, since Walter Mondale did it back in 1984, the Dems should hold off on trumpeting how ground-breaking it is. And it passive-aggressively swipes the legs out on anyone claiming they were chosen simply on merit.
Figures for Jan/Feb (not Feb/March)
- retail down 20.5%
- industrial output down 13.5%
- fixed investment down 24.5% (was +5.4%)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/51902553
I do think earlier lockdown of affected comuni south of Bergamo would probably have been helpful, but this graph could equally be argued as showing slower, more gradual onset in Bergamo and now catching up.
Jerome Salomon, France’s top health official, has said his country is struggling to curb the spread of coronavirus, after many Parisians ventured out in large numbers on Sunday despite official advice to stay at home.
https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1
Which is remarkably fast - but we’re still looking at 12-18 months even if one of these vaccines proves effective.
"South Korea reports its third day where recoveries exceed new cases, despite new cluster near Seoul
South Korea has reported its third day when recoveries have outstripped infections, but a new cluster of infections has surfaced in Seongnam city, south of Seoul. At least 40 members of a Protestant church tested positive, including the pastor, after services on 1 March and 8 March, despite government calls to cancel mass gatherings.
New infections have been on a declining trajectory, with the latest figures well below a 29 February peak of 909, and slightly down from 76 on Sunday.
“For three straight days we have seen more numbers of discharged than newly confirmed, but we should not forget the lessons we’ve learned,” the vice health minister Kim Gang-lip told a briefing.
Refreshing
Branson's shareholders have to take any hit and the same with BA
However, once done I am content for BA to be nationalised and I am a conservative, but a pragmatic one
1. Gym noticeably quieter this morning with fewer pensioners.
2. Roads noticeably quieter this morning. Makes life easier for those of us who need to work not from home
3. Talk up thread about interest rates and liquidity. They are going to have to implement a debt holiday. Lower interest rates does nothing if your business is drying up as people suspend their normal operations.
You can keep going with a lower income - cut your outgoings! For both people and businesses a lot of outgoings are debt - mortgage, loans, capex etc. These aircraft that are about to be parked up won't be owned outright by the airlines. Most businesses rent, most people rent or pay a mortgage, then we have loans for so many things.
If incomes are to drop through the floor then to avoid mass personal and business bankruptcy we need a debt holiday. Let the remaining liquid cash in circulation keep circulating not be repaid to the banks. Which means the government step in, float the banks off the rocks in exchange for a moratorium on all lending repayments until this is all over.
Whats more this needs to happen worldwide. Big businesses are global, smaller businesses buy global. We can lock down our physical borders but the electronic movement of money is unaffected. Something that Bozza could suggest at the G7 whilst looking at that flying pig out the window...
We could apparently soon arrive in a situation soon where China , South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan are recovering economically, but Europe, the USA and other parts of the world going into a slump.