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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is runnin

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    This thread has herd immunity

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Globalisation defeated by globulisation.
  • tlg86 said:

    The demands from Virgin for a 7.5 billion bail out is outrageous.

    Branson's shareholders have to take any hit and the same with BA

    However, once done I am content for BA to be nationalised and I am a conservative, but a pragmatic one

    I suspect this will be one thing that will unite the country.
    It occured to me that this crisis will drive a 'coach and horses' through the EU state aid policies
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.

    We stride the world.

    Except it won't be like that. We will be the dumbasses who thought we knew best, better than the Chinese scientists and epidemiologists who deal with this kind of threat every day of every year.

    The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.

    We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
    You are getting worrying close to "at least [he] made the trains run on time" as an argument
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not only has Japan apparently stabilized new covid19 cases, it's also doing a great job with the regular flu:

    https://twitter.com/kinsan_tohyama/status/1238978887356280833/photo/1

    There's going to be lots of other viruses, bacteria, pubic lice, nits, looking at Covid-19 and going "You complete and utter bastard....."
    Donald Trump as COVID
    Senator Rubio as flu
    Jeb Bush as common cold
    Senator Cruz as pubic lice

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020

    So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.

    We stride the world.

    Except it won't be like that. We will be the dumbasses who thought we knew best, better than the Chinese scientists and epidemiologists who deal with this kind of threat every day of every year.

    The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.

    We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
    Utter crap, it was China who caused this virus by allowing live meat markets and bat experiments.

    South Korea, Singapore and Germany also have dealt with this virus far better than China, as for the moment has the UK
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Gabs3 said:

    Biden just committed to appointing a woman as his veep.

    Elizabeth Warren
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Biden just committed to appointing a woman as his veep.

    Elizabeth Warren
    Too old !
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,225
    Charles said:

    Not only has Japan apparently stabilized new covid19 cases, it's also doing a great job with the regular flu:

    https://twitter.com/kinsan_tohyama/status/1238978887356280833/photo/1

    There's going to be lots of other viruses, bacteria, pubic lice, nits, looking at Covid-19 and going "You complete and utter bastard....."
    Donald Trump as COVID
    Senator Rubio as flu
    Jeb Bush as common cold
    Senator Cruz as pubic lice

    I didn’t know you dropped your aitches, Charles ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2020
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF666 said:



    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Out of hours FTSE now down to 5160 but the Dow hasn’t moved, presumably the trigger close has stayed in all night.

    I was wondering about the DOW/FTSE moves, but yes clear your explanation is right.
    It's disappointing and concerning how little impact the Central banks moves have had. Not even a dead cat this time.
    I doubt they can do much at this stage - there is no chance of a stock market recovery until the virus peaks.

    It's not the stock market that is the problem. it's the real economy. I would be amazed if its not down 5% this month. God knows what's happened to Italy's GDP.
    China was down 13% in Jan/Feb (manufacturing)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Biden just committed to appointing a woman as his veep.

    Elizabeth Warren
    Too old !
    Warren is over ten years younger than Biden and he needs her to get progressives and left liberals behind him, he alreasy has centrists and the black voter tied up
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    A few things:

    1. Gym noticeably quieter this morning with fewer pensioners.
    2. Roads noticeably quieter this morning. Makes life easier for those of us who need to work not from home
    3. Talk up thread about interest rates and liquidity. They are going to have to implement a debt holiday. Lower interest rates does nothing if your business is drying up as people suspend their normal operations.

    You can keep going with a lower income - cut your outgoings! For both people and businesses a lot of outgoings are debt - mortgage, loans, capex etc. These aircraft that are about to be parked up won't be owned outright by the airlines. Most businesses rent, most people rent or pay a mortgage, then we have loans for so many things.

    If incomes are to drop through the floor then to avoid mass personal and business bankruptcy we need a debt holiday. Let the remaining liquid cash in circulation keep circulating not be repaid to the banks. Which means the government step in, float the banks off the rocks in exchange for a moratorium on all lending repayments until this is all over.

    Whats more this needs to happen worldwide. Big businesses are global, smaller businesses buy global. We can lock down our physical borders but the electronic movement of money is unaffected. Something that Bozza could suggest at the G7 whilst looking at that flying pig out the window...

    That's basically what's happening.
  • HYUFD said:

    So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.

    We stride the world.

    Except it won't be like that. We will be the dumbasses who thought we knew best, better than the Chinese scientists and epidemiologists who deal with this kind of threat every day of every year.

    The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.

    We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
    Utter crap, it was China who caused this virus by allowing live meat markets and bat experiments.

    South Korea, Singapore and Germany also have dealt with this virus far better than China, as for the moment has the UK
    Yeah, blame China. FFS
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Brilliant. Two weeks into the crisis and the free market is demanding subsidies. No thanks. Time for a cull.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    HYUFD said:

    So, imagine our chief science guys are right and this time next year the UK is seen as the beacon of dealing with this virus by not doing total lockdown.

    We stride the world.

    Except it won't be like that. We will be the dumbasses who thought we knew best, better than the Chinese scientists and epidemiologists who deal with this kind of threat every day of every year.

    The country which is the beacon of dealing with this virus is China.

    We're not smart and we are not world players. Not any more.
    Utter crap, it was China who caused this virus by allowing live meat markets and bat experiments.

    South Korea, Singapore and Germany also have dealt with this virus far better than China, as for the moment has the UK
    Yeah, blame China. FFS
    The Chinese government caused it and is to blame
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Fenman said:

    Brilliant. Two weeks into the crisis and the free market is demanding subsidies. No thanks. Time for a cull.

    For free market, read employees.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    Fenman said:

    Brilliant. Two weeks into the crisis and the free market is demanding subsidies. No thanks. Time for a cull.

    For free market, read employees.
    The state has a role and an obligation to protect citizens. Not companies. Shareholders take a risk to get a return. Sometimes it doesn't pay off. It's called capitalism.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited March 2020
    Fenman said:

    Fenman said:

    Brilliant. Two weeks into the crisis and the free market is demanding subsidies. No thanks. Time for a cull.

    For free market, read employees.
    The state has a role and an obligation to protect citizens. Not companies. Shareholders take a risk to get a return. Sometimes it doesn't pay off. It's called capitalism.
    This ain’t capitalism.

    The govt can either institute a UBI and let most of the private sector go to the wall.

    Or, it can prop up private sector until normal service can resume.
This discussion has been closed.