politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Compulsory house arrest for the 70+group risks causing seconda

alex_ said:

What is the scientific basis for saying people can't go for walks?

I don't think that is being said. But to avoid conflicting advice, a simple message of "stay indoors" would be preferred over "stay indoors unless you live in an area with a population density of less than Y and can be sure you won't come into contact with a plague bearer". You have to hope people use a bit of common sense.

FrancisUrquhart said:

alex_ said:

What is the scientific basis for saying people can't go for walks?

You will come into contact with people, you will cough on the pavement, gates, cars etc.

Although even if most of those really represent material risks of spreading the virus, only the first should apply to somebody self isolating for their own safety (ie. over 70s) as opposed to risk of transmission to others.

And I repeat my question - if people live with 70 year olds are they forced to self isolate with them? What percentage of the working population lives with elderly relatives?

Stereotomy said:

alex_ said:

Black_Rook said:

rkrkrk said:

I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.

It will kill some people. Literally.

What happens to smokers?

They're already committed to killing themselves

But they might start smoking inside rather than outside. Massively increasing the risk to others. If only due to increased risks of fire in flats.

alex_ said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

alex_ said:

What is the scientific basis for saying people can't go for walks?

You will come into contact with people, you will cough on the pavement, gates, cars etc.

Although even if most of those really represent material risks of spreading the virus, only the first should apply to somebody self isolating for their own safety (ie. over 70s) as opposed to risk of transmission to others.

And I repeat my question - if people live with 70 year olds are they forced to self isolate with them? What percentage of the working population lives with elderly relatives?

No one is forced to do anything. It's all about reducing the rate of infection, so even if only half of over 70s take the advice and are isolated, that will be a significant improvement over the baseline.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gabs3 said:

Over 50s number is shocking:

twitter.com/pbump/status/1238908474219782145

But they are shit scared of Mexicans coming over the border, Islamist terrorists, sanders becoming president....

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1238908641257889795?s=19

noneoftheabove said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51898604

I mean really? Pogba earning £15m a year and delivering nothing for it this year wants others to donate £27,000 to raise his profile during coronavirus. Just give the money (and more) yourself.

What a dick....compare to rookie NBA player Zion Williamson, who will paid for all the wages of staff that work at the arena.

Castleford vs St Helens Rugby League live on Sky Sports 1 now... with Chris Kamara!

alex_ said:

Does anyone living with elderly relatives have to go into quarantine with them?

That's a very good question, and one issue that I don't recall being raised anywhere so far. Many older people, especially in South Asian communities, live in multi-generational households: will their children and grandchildren all have to self-isolate as a group for the duration? There'll also be meaningful numbers of pensioner couples in which one half is 70-plus and the other is a little younger. Not such a problem if they're both retired, rather more complicated if the younger partner is still in work.

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

This seniors quarantine will be advisory only, I presume.

Yes, I should think so. Surely parliament would not pass a law making it illegal for them to leave their homes?

Probably not, or not just yet anyway - although it'll confront a very tricky situation if too many older people refuse to comply.

If reports of the contents of the emergency Bills are to be believed, they will contain powers for the police and armed forces to forcibly detain infected persons. An offence of breaking quarantine may also be included, to be held in reserve in case the Government needs to command all bar essential workers to stay home during the peak of the outbreak. We shall have to wait and see.

FrancisUrquhart said:

alex_ said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

That advice seems aimed at potential carriers (eg. symptomatic or returning from abroad). Not to 70 years olds isolating to protect themselves from others.

The more you complicate the message the less likely people will follow it.

The more draconian the message the less likely people will follow it.

Good afternoon, everyone.

Beginning to wonder if every Government action or piece of advice is being seen as a go ahead for the Devil's advocate.

FrancisUrquhart said:

alex_ said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

That advice seems aimed at potential carriers (eg. symptomatic or returning from abroad). Not to 70 years olds isolating to protect themselves from others.

The more you complicate the message the less likely people will follow it.

But the more people cannot understand the rationale the less they will be prepared to buy into it. It's easy enough for people living in relatively spacious living conditions, perhaps with gardens etc. Not for people living in poky 1-bed/studio or overcrowded flats with little access to fresh air. Coronavirus isn't the only killer out there*.

*O/T but I understand that this is a problem for doctors triaging people with temperatures. Young children have temperatures all the time, and often for illnesses a hell of a lot more dangerous to them than the virus.

Black_Rook said:

alex_ said:

Does anyone living with elderly relatives have to go into quarantine with them?

That's a very good question, and one issue that I don't recall being raised anywhere so far. Many older people, especially in South Asian communities, live in multi-generational households: will their children and grandchildren all have to self-isolate as a group for the duration? There'll also be meaningful numbers of pensioner couples in which one half is 70-plus and the other is a little younger. Not such a problem if they're both retired, rather more complicated if the younger partner is still in work.

Stocky said:

kinabalu said:

This seniors quarantine will be advisory only, I presume.

Yes, I should think so. Surely parliament would not pass a law making it illegal for them to leave their homes?

Probably not, or not just yet anyway - although it'll confront a very tricky situation if too many older people refuse to comply.

If reports of the contents of the emergency Bills are to be believed, they will contain powers for the police and armed forces to forcibly detain infected persons. An offence of breaking quarantine may also be included, to be held in reserve in case the Government needs to command all bar essential workers to stay home during the peak of the outbreak. We shall have to wait and see.

"Forcibly detain infected persons" - how will the police know if the individual is infected? Caution him/her subject to testing? If they prove to be positive then any legal proceding would surely be dodgy because the person had no reason to believe they were infected at the time of the arrest. The whole thing would be a farce.

eristdoof said:

edmundintokyo said:

Just 31 new cases in Japan today after a spike yesterday, puts the average back on the steady 50 per day track. However anecdotally the testing sounds extremely shitty, people with all the symptoms getting denied tests...

Can you tell me why the total number of Japanese cases dropped dramatically (ie negative number of new cases) two days ago?

Presumably a bunch of people from the cruise ships being summarily delared closed cases.

isam said:

Castleford vs St Helens Rugby League live on Sky Sports 1 now... with Chris Kamara!

Up North. I wonder if we are seeing that the "outrage" all over twitter at the Govt's approach is massively centred on London and the South? Compare with people complaining that the National League football went ahead yesterday.

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

So, assuming you feel in good health, answer this truthfully:

Would you a) rather be confined to your house or b) go out and about and take the risk of catching the virus.

I suspect that you - like the vast majority - will say b).

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

Youre aware of the risks and the choices, with your mindset it may well be best to do as much as you can this week as the risk only increases in future weeks and you may not be able to do most of that by April anyway.

felix said:

Black_Rook said:

rkrkrk said:

I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.

Here in Spain they are arresting people and dishing out large fines for those who stay at home means go out for a bike ride or a walk.

That'll be interesting if they try that over here. Policemen dishing out on-the-spot fines of a weeks' pension to dotty old octogenarian dears with mild cognitive impairment tottering back from the corner shop will not go down at all well.

alex_ said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

That advice seems aimed at potential carriers (eg. symptomatic or returning from abroad). Not to 70 years olds isolating to protect themselves from others.

That's to follow.

Black_Rook said:

felix said:

Black_Rook said:

rkrkrk said:

I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.

Here in Spain they are arresting people and dishing out large fines for those who stay at home means go out for a bike ride or a walk.

That'll be interesting if they try that over here. Policemen dishing out on-the-spot fines of a weeks' pension to dotty old octogenarian dears with mild cognitive impairment tottering back from the corner shop will not go down at all well.

I heard on the radio that in Italy people are being arrested for leaving their houses to walk their dog. I don`t think that we in Britain would stand for this.

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

All the U3a events are for 60+-er's.

I get it, my mum is 75 (and has a twin brother) - she is out and about everyday and maintains a great social life. She had a very busy working life, so finds it impossible to really relax.

My uncle travels for months on end, and has already been in touch to say he has no intention of returning to the UK unless forced to, he feels he is at much less risk of contracting illness in a hot climate. He's not in Europe, so I can't say I blame him.

northern_monkey said:

If true, v classy:

https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1239204731844780033?s=21

Trump is the latter day Private Walker from Dad's Army.

I imagine if he did buy the vaccine company, he would brand the vaccine after himself.

NickPalmer said:

Stocky said:

So, assuming you feel in good health, answer this truthfully:

Would you a) rather be confined to your house or b) go out and about and take the risk of catching the virus.

I suspect that you - like the vast majority - will say b).

a) for me, no question. Exercise, fresh air, etc. are all good, but a couple of months without it won't kill me. The virus can. And so can the other high-risk people who'd be wandering around without the restriction.

Living in a one room flat with limited fresh air, as a smoker, for 4 months? Some might decide that such a life isn't worth living. Bear in mind that many may feel that they are living on borrowed time anyway, and don't want to waste what could be a fairly large proportion of their remaining life. At the height of summer.

NickPalmer said:

alex_ said:

<

It will kill some people. Literally.

What happens to smokers?

They open a window. It's legal to smoke in your own home. Admittedly you're killing yourself anyway, but you're not killing anyone else.

You are if you start a fire. And "open a window" isn't actually available to many people in large tower blocks.

felix said:

Stocky said:

Black_Rook said:

felix said:

Black_Rook said:

rkrkrk said:

I may be missing something but self isolation =/= staying at home?
Presumably going out for a long walk in nature is totally fine.

The existing advice for the seven days' worth of self isolation for suspected cases is entitled "Stay at home" and explicitly states that "You cannot go for a walk."

I assume this means that elderly and medically vulnerable self-isolators will also be trapped inside (unless they live in houses with enclosed back gardens, which will allow them to get outdoors without coming into contact or close to any other people.)

You can therefore appreciate why the Government is stalling for as long as possible. It is a Draconian measure.

Here in Spain they are arresting people and dishing out large fines for those who stay at home means go out for a bike ride or a walk.

That'll be interesting if they try that over here. Policemen dishing out on-the-spot fines of a weeks' pension to dotty old octogenarian dears with mild cognitive impairment tottering back from the corner shop will not go down at all well.

I heard on the radio that in Italy people are being arrested for leaving their houses to walk their dog. I don`t think that we in Britain would stand for this.

It all depends how bad it gets. But that is what lockdown means - there are plenty in the UK asking why we aren't following Italy and the Europeans already. Now you have the answer.

You mean, because we wouldn`t stand for it? I`m amazed that Italians are standing for it - maybe they are not and the current government over there is doomed.

alex_ said:

NickPalmer said:

alex_ said:

<

It will kill some people. Literally.

What happens to smokers?

They open a window. It's legal to smoke in your own home. Admittedly you're killing yourself anyway, but you're not killing anyone else.

You are if you start a fire.

Its a filthy habit but smokers have smoked indoors for centuries and not simply started a fire every time they do.

CarlottaVance said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

232 new cases vs 342 yesterday, definitely (so far) slower than Italy....14 additional deaths which is a jump from 10 yesterday.

We've stopped testing people...unless they go to hospitals....so the overall number figure is pointless....

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gallowgate said:

twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

~2500 tests, another 200 positive. 20% day on day increase.

We seem to be following German numbers more than Italy or Spain.

"As of 9am on 15 March"

Even if you take 1372 as the final figure for today, there is a five-fold increase in 7 days in the UK, a rate of 25% (not 20%) and that means doubling every 3 days.

And another thing: in terms of deaths the UK has 3 times as meany deaths than Germany from a quarter of the known positive cases.

It's estimated that around 200 people die every day from smoking-related illnesses in the UK.

The new self-isolation rules for new coughs - does that apply if you have a new cold with a sore throat but no coughing and no fever?

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

All the U3a events are for 60+-er's.

Seriously, cancel all of them.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

All the U3a events are for 60+-er's.

I get it, my mum is 75 (and has a twin brother) - she is out and about everyday and maintains a great social life. She had a very busy working life, so finds it impossible to really relax.

My uncle travels for months on end, and has already been in touch to say he has no intention of returning to the UK unless forced to, he feels he is at much less risk of contracting illness in a hot climate. He's not in Europe, so I can't say I blame him.

I think your uncle is right. It was suggested to us that we go to family in Thailand for three months, but that option is closed off now.

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

Stocky said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

So, assuming you feel in good health, answer this truthfully:

Would you a) rather be confined to your house or b) go out and about and take the risk of catching the virus.

I suspect that you - like the vast majority - will say b).

Truthfully. I have mild asthma, which is why I'm missing the gym. Don't know who else has just used the equipment, even if I disinfect handles etc on the equipment.
We're very doubtful about the pub lunch, too. We don't know who else will be in the pub, obviously. However, we know who'll be at the smaller U3a meetings.
So will probably go to those, although the groups might set up an internet...... Skype or something....link for next month. We have the technology.

WhatsApp is also good for group chats, if you all have it.

There's a blog on the internet that is good for group chats.

Barnesian said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

Stocky said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

So, assuming you feel in good health, answer this truthfully:

Would you a) rather be confined to your house or b) go out and about and take the risk of catching the virus.

I suspect that you - like the vast majority - will say b).

Truthfully. I have mild asthma, which is why I'm missing the gym. Don't know who else has just used the equipment, even if I disinfect handles etc on the equipment.
We're very doubtful about the pub lunch, too. We don't know who else will be in the pub, obviously. However, we know who'll be at the smaller U3a meetings.
So will probably go to those, although the groups might set up an internet...... Skype or something....link for next month. We have the technology.

WhatsApp is also good for group chats, if you all have it.

There's a blog on the internet that is good for group chats.

Hmmm, not sure what you mean.

tyson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

232 new cases vs 342 yesterday, definitely (so far) slower than Italy....14 additional deaths which is a jump from 10 yesterday.

We've stopped testing people...unless they go to hospitals....so the overall number figure is pointless....

Still carried out over 2,500 tests in a day....which is in line with what we've been doing.

HYUFD said:

Presumably twice a day walk around the garden is the solution for over 70s facing quarantine

Assuming they have a garden...

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

Self Isolation advice:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

I read this as advice if one HAS coronavirus symptoms.

I'm one of the oldest people who post here. I get the impression that some of these 40/50 yr olds think people like my wife and I don't have much of a life

Our diary for next week ought to be
Monday. Me Gym. Wife Chiropody (can't reach our toenails easily.) Then she should be going to a lace-making Group and I go to the chiropodist.
Tuesday she's booked at Weight Watchers (don't know why, she looks good to me, but there you are)
I'm going to a U3a Group meeting.
Wednesday's gym for me, then go and meet a group of friends for coffee. In the afternoon, there's another, big, U3a meeting.
Thursday we're booked to go to a pub lunch with U3a friends and in the afternoon I've got a WEA meeting.
Friday I've two U3a groups.

Admittedly it's quite a busy week, but I can't cope without getting about.
I don't know which, apart from the gym, I'm going to cancel. If any!

All the U3a events are for 60+-er's.

Cancel all of them...for you and your wife....you are not only placing yourselves at risk, but you may end up taking a hospital place that could save the life of someone else.....

You are really and completely irresponsible if any of you two do any of those.....if you cannot think of yourselves, think of other people

CarlottaVance said:

tyson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

232 new cases vs 342 yesterday, definitely (so far) slower than Italy....14 additional deaths which is a jump from 10 yesterday.

We've stopped testing people...unless they go to hospitals....so the overall number figure is pointless....

Still carried out over 2,500 tests in a day....which is in line with what we've been doing.

There is definitely something not quite right here. 2500 tests and only a small % positive. If you were only testing those admitted to hospital with symptoms, it surely would be a much bigger %. I guess it could be still some of the community testing still coming through from 4 days ago, or they are actually still random sampling across the community but not telling people that because they will demand a test.

dr_spyn said:

Pizza with pineapple still not selling well.

twitter.com/bianco222/status/1238830341630107660

I can't believe any store even dares to sell that in Italy !!!

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Presumably twice a day walk around the garden is the solution for over 70s facing quarantine

Assuming they have a garden...

Yep, to state the obvious it's going to be a lot tougher for people living in small flats. 4 months is a long time to expect someone to be confined to two or three rooms in a tower block.

FrancisUrquhart said:

eristdoof said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Gallowgate said:

twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

~2500 tests, another 200 positive. 20% day on day increase.

We seem to be following German numbers more than Italy or Spain.

"As of 9am on 15 March"

Even if you take 1372 as the final figure for today, there is a five-fold increase in 7 days in the UK, a rate of 25% (not 20%) and that means doubling every 3 days.

The data is always from 9am. 20% is the increase day on day from yesterday.

OK fair enough for the UK figures, other countries update ther figures multiple times in the day. But using exactly the same source as you yesterday was an increase of 48.86% in the UK.

As I have tried to point out multiple times, using just 1 days figures for count data is totally unreliable. The variance is just too large.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Presumably twice a day walk around the garden is the solution for over 70s facing quarantine

Assuming they have a garden...

True....I feel sorry for those in multi story flats with shared hallways, and lots of families around.....they are placing themselves at risk going out.....

I think for most over 70's- if they can get out of their own independent access and take some fresh air and stay away from other people- go for it.....but stay away from any public confined space like a shop.....

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

tyson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

232 new cases vs 342 yesterday, definitely (so far) slower than Italy....14 additional deaths which is a jump from 10 yesterday.

We've stopped testing people...unless they go to hospitals....so the overall number figure is pointless....

Still carried out over 2,500 tests in a day....which is in line with what we've been doing.

There is definitely something not quite right here. 2500 tests and only a small % positive. If you were only testing those admitted to hospital with symptoms, it surely would be a much bigger %. I guess it could be still some of the community testing still coming through from 4 days ago, or they are actually still random sampling across the community but not telling people that because they will demand a test.

They are testing medical staff

FrancisUrquhart said:

kinabalu said:

Cyclefree said:

If the quarantine is compulsory, how on earth can it be enforced? What are the police going to do? Arrest 72 year olds? And do what with them?

I don't think it will be. Or if it is, it will be in name only. In essence I see this as formalizing via government advice what is already common sense. If you are at high risk (of death or severe illness from the virus) hunker down to minimize your chances of infection both for your sake and in the national interest - since the number one priority is to stop the NHS falling over.

It won't be enforced by the police or by anybody else. No problem, because it won't need to be. Most people will follow the "instructions" because they will be scared of serious illness and death and/or they will feel a sense of duty to stay well and out of overstretched hospitals at this time of national crisis.

I think some of the nuttier elements on twitter will want to see oldies locked up for breaking the rules, cos they voted Brexit and Tory.....

Well, I didn't. Nor did most of my U3a friends.

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Presumably twice a day walk around the garden is the solution for over 70s facing quarantine

Assuming they have a garden...

Yep, to state the obvious it's going to be a lot tougher for people living in small flats. 4 months is a long time to expect someone to be confined to two or three rooms in a tower block.

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

tyson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Gallowgate said:

https://twitter.com/dhscgovuk/status/1239214816860016640?s=21

232 new cases vs 342 yesterday, definitely (so far) slower than Italy....14 additional deaths which is a jump from 10 yesterday.

We've stopped testing people...unless they go to hospitals....so the overall number figure is pointless....

Still carried out over 2,500 tests in a day....which is in line with what we've been doing.

There is definitely something not quite right here. 2500 tests and only a small % positive. If you were only testing those admitted to hospital with symptoms, it surely would be a much bigger %. I guess it could be still some of the community testing still coming through from 4 days ago, or they are actually still random sampling across the community but not telling people that because they will demand a test.

Yes...there is a lag...I know someone from work who is waiting for his result from last week....
But on testing...I don't think we are now comparing apples with pyjamas

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, what's the current official advice on visiting parents/grandparents?

I've had a quick look but from what I could see then, providing there's no fever/cough it's still deemed ok.

Yes - until the call goes out to self-isolate I see no reason why people shouldn't go about their business essentially as normal.

As has been much discussed here and elsewhere recently, quarantine for older people and the medically vulnerable is going to be something of an ordeal, and a lengthy one at that. There is no point in prolonging that situation (e.g. by self-isolating immediately) unnecessarily. Some people will do that anyway because they're very frightened, but for those who aren't they might as well keep calm and carry on until instructed otherwise.

The reality is that the number of reported positive cases now don't really matter. We know 10,000+ have it, and people are now dying in increasing numbers.

Obviously the important numbers for the eggheads is how many people are now requiring hospital treatment for it.

Us on here looking at this data in the same way as opinion polls, now tells us very little. At the moment it does seem like it is more the Germany trajectory than Italy, but couple of weeks and the horror stories will start.