politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfai
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfair for the nomination
After his sensational change of fortune just ten days ago ex-VP, 77-year old Joe Biden heads into tonight’s round of primaries. The one that will be most watched is Michigan where Bernie Sanders pulled off a sensational victory of Clinton at WH2016. The polling, this time, is heavily for Biden. Michigan will be a key target for the Dems in Novermber.
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Can it be Joe 90?3
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According to Wiki (I know, I know) on published data the UK has the fourth (third on a list which excludes China) highest number of tests behind S Korea and Italy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
Not all the data is completely up to date, and some countries are notably absent - eg Germany, Spain - but so far, we seem to be doing pretty well...0 -
FPT
So not Remainers but pleb Leavers who think an M&S meal is a Michelin starred experience.FrancisUrquhart said:DHSC just updated its breakdown of cases by local authority, which now shows the number of cases in each area as of 9am this morning. Five new cases were detected in Kensington and Chelsea, one of the UK’s wealthiest areas, bringing the total in the borough to 13.
The area with the most cases overall remains Hertfordshire, with three new cases bringing the total in the county to 16.
Skiers...Luton Airport...-1 -
This market’s still under-round.0
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Any links to cases by area ?0
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FPT
Notable growth in Southwark, 1->3->5->8 cases.FrancisUrquhart said:DHSC just updated its breakdown of cases by local authority, which now shows the number of cases in each area as of 9am this morning. Five new cases were detected in Kensington and Chelsea, one of the UK’s wealthiest areas, bringing the total in the borough to 13.
The area with the most cases overall remains Hertfordshire, with three new cases bringing the total in the county to 16.
Skiers...Luton Airport...
K&C and Hertfordshire you've singled out.
Hampshire now up to 10, from 2, 3 days ago.
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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-englandTGOHF666 said:Any links to cases by area ?
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom#StatisticsTGOHF666 said:Any links to cases by area ?
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Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?
Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.
First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.
Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).
Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom#Statistics
I would be interested to know how many of the recent (passed few days) cases are from people who have retered from other contrarys, and how many from inside the UK, I don't understand why they are not publishing this anymore?
As UK cases seem to be scattered rater than clustered, for the most part, that would suggest to me its still mostly from people who contracted it oversees but maybe I'm wrong.1 -
I see there were lots of calls in the EP for the EU to take a co-ordinating role in the management of the crisis - something I raised a couple of days ago - to some derision from the usual suspects on here. Rather amusing to see all the clips of speakers from all over the EU speaking very fluent English as they made their points.0
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91 cases in Greater LondonBigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom#StatisticsTGOHF666 said:Any links to cases by area ?
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Half the cases are in the greater South East.Sunil_Prasannan said:
91 cases in Greater LondonBigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom#StatisticsTGOHF666 said:Any links to cases by area ?
20 cases are in Devon-Torbay-Cornwall.
However there are cases in every region.
No where is immune.0 -
New York is sending the National Guard to the New York City suburb of New Rochelle to help set up a coronavirus containment area.
https://trib.al/Vaq5utG0 -
Also from the WSJ
The GOP is racing to stop a Texas candidate who tweets photos of women’s breasts and supports teaching students conspiracy theories: “We will crush him or I will light myself on fire.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/front-runner-for-texas-school-board-wants-to-teach-pole-dancing-conspiracy-theories-115835260930 -
I'm getting images of the start of ET in my head.TheScreamingEagles said:New York is sending the National Guard to the New York City suburb of New Rochelle to help set up a coronavirus containment area.
https://trib.al/Vaq5utG0 -
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There are none in Gogledd CymruGardenwalker said:
Half the cases are in the greater South East.
20 cases are in Devon-Torbay-Cornwall.
However there are cases in every region.
No where is immune.0 -
Haha, Biden comes out of that very well.Scott_xP said:https://twitter. com/davidfrum/status/1237401899189633024
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Warren has already left it too late to endorse.
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/486631-political-reporter-if-warren-waits-too-long-to-endorse-bernie-it-will-be
Or isn’t going to endorse at all.
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He has a very bad habit of jabby pointy motion with his hands when he disagrees with people.Scott_xP said:twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1237401899189633024
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Irrelevant as N sea income had been destroyed by Osborne in his 2011 Budget tax grab.Sandpit said:
Around $100TheScreamingEagles said:What was the price of a barrel of oil in September 2014?
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/gallery/publications/statistics-publication/2018/08/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2017-18/00539518.gif0 -
Just one case in Lincolnshire, I think.YBarddCwsc said:
There are none in Gogledd CymruGardenwalker said:
Half the cases are in the greater South East.
20 cases are in Devon-Torbay-Cornwall.
However there are cases in every region.
No where is immune.0 -
I'm happy to be leaving the Smoke to head to the Smog of Teesside this evening.Sunil_Prasannan said:
91 cases in Greater LondonBigRich said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom#StatisticsTGOHF666 said:Any links to cases by area ?
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Politicians telling voters they are full of shit is something I would like to see an awful lot more of. Many voters ARE full of shit, let's face it, and therefore it is an example of that thing which so many people say they want to hear from politicians - the much fabled "telling it like it is".Scott_xP said:2 -
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2020 vision doesn’t require those specs....TheScreamingEagles said:Can it be Joe 90?
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[Edit: I see that the video has just been posted]
Not sure if this helps or hinders Biden. He goes up in my estimation - it's rather refreshing to see a politician arguing back against idiocy - but I'm not the target market.1 -
Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed
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The gun nuts aren’t going to vote Democrat anyway.Richard_Nabavi said:[Edit: I see that the video has just been posted]
Not sure if this helps or hinders Biden. He goes up in my estimation - it's rather refreshing to see a politician arguing back against idiocy - but I'm not the target market.
Plenty of gun owners, though, are unlikely to be offended.
This is not ‘deplorables’ - it’s a guy telling a guy who’s full of shit that he’s full of shit.1 -
Coronavirus, per capita ranking
1. San Marino (1500 per million)
2. Vatican City (1000)
3. Iceland (190)
4. Italy (152)
5. S Korea (147)
6. St. Barts (111)
7. Iran (96)
8. Bahrain (65)
9. Switzerland (57)
10. China (56)
11. Norway (53)
12. Denmark (45)
...
xx. UK (6)0 -
That’s a “good” new infections rate.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed0 -
Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.
Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?
Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?0 -
yes...but...numbers from Lombardy may be only partial because when they sent the updated numbers this late afternoon, they were still waiting for the results of some tests....Gardenwalker said:
That’s a “good” new infections rate.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed0 -
This could be like the moment John Major was court on camera calling some of his MPs 'Bastards', The press reporting it as a 'gaff' but then his popularity rose after, as people felt they could relate to that feeling.Richard_Nabavi said:[Edit: I see that the video has just been posted]
Not sure if this helps or hinders Biden. He goes up in my estimation - it's rather refreshing to see a politician arguing back against idiocy - but I'm not the target market.
But....0 -
People with “flu” starting to self isolate?MikeL said:Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.
Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?
Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?0 -
This generation's Don Pacifico Tories:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/12374254686614773850 -
North Dakota is up tonight, North Carolina was won by Biden on Super Tuesday0
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The top candidate for the board of education...TheScreamingEagles said:Also from the WSJ
The GOP is racing to stop a Texas candidate who tweets photos of women’s breasts and supports teaching students conspiracy theories: “We will crush him or I will light myself on fire.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/front-runner-for-texas-school-board-wants-to-teach-pole-dancing-conspiracy-theories-115835260930 -
That's a significant drop from yesterday, now the nation is in lock down, have they modified there policy on testing.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed1 -
Kind of on topic, I have just put some money on Amy Klobuchar as Biden's VP choice (I'm assuming Biden wins the nomination) as,
1. She is female
2. She would shore up Minnesota and probably help in Wisconsin / Iowa
3. I think the Democrats hierarchy will be well aware there has to be a high chance Biden does not complete his first term, never mind his second. So the VP candidate will have to be someone who can step up to the plate. I can't see any of the others mentioned (Abrams, Harris etc) doing that0 -
That death rate is horrific.Chameleon said:www.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1237426680781774850
Peak cases, or weekend numbers?0 -
..0
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yes...but...numbers from Lombardy are partial because when they sent the updated numbers this late afternoon, they were still waiting for the results of some tests....Gardenwalker said:
That’s a “good” new infections rate.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed0 -
Spoke too soon.
No sign of levelling off in Italy.0 -
It seems unclear what's going on in Lombardy.
It's very important to know, either way.0 -
John PrescottRichard_Nabavi said:0 -
Trump goes odds AGAINST on Betfair. People are waking up.0
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That's the lowest daily Italy number since 6 March.
Last 3 days:
7 Mar - 1,247
8 Mar - 1,492
9 Mar - 1,797
10 Mar - 9770 -
England coronavirus warm spots. Given the still low number of cases per area, it would be incorrect to view these as outbreaks as opposed to clusters, but rather places where the initial outbreaks are looking a little more likely, especially where neighbouring areas appear. It is perfectly possible for a dozen or so cases to be in a closed group who have all been isolated and the infection chain broken:
>5 cases per 100k residents: Torbay, Kensington and Chelsea
> 2 per 100k: Brighton & Hove, Southwark, Barnet
>1 per 100k: Devon, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, Ealing, Hounslow, Hammersmith&Fulham, Westminster, Camden, Tower Hamlets, Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire, Wolverhampton, Liverpool, Bolton, Trafford, Bury, Oldham, York, Cumbria, Newcastle uT
Many of the areas reporting new cases are in a quadrant between north and west of Central London. Brighton and Torbay did not see a large uptick today.
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The reporting on coronavirus is awful.
We are relying on half-mashed Twitter reports from surgeons to understand how Italy is dealing with the plague.
Let alone Iran or South Korea.
Where are the intrepid journalists on the spot?
Where are the foreign stringers?
And can I note, Iceland.
Proportionally it has a worse outbreak than Italy, and nobody seems to have noticed.0 -
People washing there hands better and more often?MikeL said:Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.
Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?
Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?
Possibly combined with other spreading reducing meshurs e.g. not shacking hands, phoning in sick rather than going to work when starting to feel unwell.
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I think either would be preferable to the Klob.MrEd said:Kind of on topic, I have just put some money on Amy Klobuchar as Biden's VP choice (I'm assuming Biden wins the nomination) as,
1. She is female
2. She would shore up Minnesota and probably help in Wisconsin / Iowa
3. I think the Democrats hierarchy will be well aware there has to be a high chance Biden does not complete his first term, never mind his second. So the VP candidate will have to be someone who can step up to the plate. I can't see any of the others mentioned (Abrams, Harris etc) doing that0 -
And since Boris won so handsomely, he can cheerfully tell that many rebels to go fuck themselvesAlastairMeeks said:This generation's Don Pacifico Tories:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1237425468661477385
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If I can understand the sound correctly, the man is talking about a video of Biden talking about banning guns which Biden says is fake.BigRich said:
This could be like the moment John Major was court on camera calling some of his MPs 'Bastards', The press reporting it as a 'gaff' but then his popularity rose after, as people felt they could relate to that feeling.Richard_Nabavi said:[Edit: I see that the video has just been posted]
Not sure if this helps or hinders Biden. He goes up in my estimation - it's rather refreshing to see a politician arguing back against idiocy - but I'm not the target market.
But....
The voter says: "It's your face and your voice".
The 2020 election folks.0 -
I suppose journalists don't want to get the virus, and lockdowns make it difficult anyway. If there are then official silences, that only leaves social media and twitter, which may be both more and less helpful in building up a more integrated picture.Gardenwalker said:The reporting on coronavirus is awful.
We are relying on half-mashed Twitter reports from surgeons to understand how Italy is dealing with the plague.
Let alone Iran or South Korea.
Where are the intrepid journalists on the spot?
Where are the foreign stringers?
And can I note, Iceland.
Proportionally it has a worse outbreak than Italy, and nobody seems to have noticed.0 -
They're meant to be our representatives, not our betters I think? So they should talk to the public the same as they would if they weren't politicians, or if the public wereRichard_Nabavi said:0 -
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McVey, Chope, Francois.BluestBlue said:
And since Boris won so handsomely, he can cheerfully tell that many rebels to go fuck themselvesAlastairMeeks said:This generation's Don Pacifico Tories:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1237425468661477385
The absolute dregs de la dregs.0 -
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NYTimes:
With New Rochelle, a small city just north of New York City in Westchester County, emerging as the center of the state’s outbreak, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York on Tuesday announced a targeted containment strategy to halt the spread of the virus.
The state’s plan focuses on a “containment area” in New Rochelle with a one-mile radius centered around a synagogue believed to be at the center of the cluster, officials said.0 -
Waitrose advancing the cut off for amending home delivery orders tonight from 11 pm to 9 pm “due to high demand”.
The beginning of the end is nigh.
I hope I get the toilet rolls I ordered.0 -
Is that the opposite of a pop culture reference?TheScreamingEagles said:Can it be Joe 90?
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Interesting thread.
Huge scepticism about China’s official figures in the comments, but I can’t see how they could hide a continuing outbreak elsewhere in the country for any great length of time...
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/12371989641825402901 -
Interesting. Both Sanders and Biden advancing on Trump to similar degrees. The fallout from the virus must be already affecting him.HYUFD said:0 -
Trouble is that in this one particular instance they happen to be right. Whether by design or blind luck I don't know. But the Huawei decision is by far the biggest mistake Boris has made since he won the election - and the one that will com back to bite him in the future.Gardenwalker said:
McVey, Chope, Francois.BluestBlue said:
And since Boris won so handsomely, he can cheerfully tell that many rebels to go fuck themselvesAlastairMeeks said:This generation's Don Pacifico Tories:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1237425468661477385
The absolute dregs de la dregs.
I just hope his other decisions are less suicidally stupid.0 -
Zero does seem a bit optimistic. I wonder if numbers are very considerably down, but not zero, and the Chinese government are "rounding that off" to zero for economic reasons.Nigelb said:Interesting thread.
Huge scepticism about China’s official figures in the comments, but I can’t see how they could hide a continuing outbreak elsewhere in the country for any great length of time...
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/12371989641825402900 -
The famed "£80k isn't even in the top 50% of income" guy could have done with Burgon telling him he was full of shit.kinabalu said:
Politicians telling voters they are full of shit is something I would like to see an awful lot more of. Many voters ARE full of shit, let's face it, and therefore it is an example of that thing which so many people say they want to hear from politicians - the much fabled "telling it like it is".Scott_xP said:2 -
I wonder if landlords will give rent holidays?HYUFD said:4 -
I think there's a line to be walked. Expecting our representatives to be paragons of virtue, superlative in the legislative fields and inspiring political visionaries is being a bit unfair, but personally I don't think it unreasonable that when we give people power over us there is a reasonable expectation that they will be better on average, to hold them to a higher standard than a random person on the street.isam said:
They're meant to be our representatives, not our betters I think? So they should talk to the public the same as they would if they weren't politicians, or if the public wereRichard_Nabavi said:
Now, that doesn't mean we should expect them to never drop the professional facade in their interactions with us, each to their own, but I also don't agree that we would expect them to talk to the public in precisely the same way as if they were not politicians. They are performing a role as political leaders, and just as we don't talk the same at work as we do at home, or if we were up before a judge or in a rap battle, so too they will communicate in a different way in different situations and to different people. The fact is they are what they are, and while there is not a need for constant massaging of their every utterance toward us, it does not follow that they should act as though they are not politicians.
But there is always a place, even for politicians, to speak plainly, even forcefully.1 -
I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.HYUFD said:
Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.2 -
Hopefully that will be the case on many issues, in a good way, though we're a bit at his mercy there.BluestBlue said:
And since Boris won so handsomely, he can cheerfully tell that many rebels to go fuck themselvesAlastairMeeks said:This generation's Don Pacifico Tories:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/12374254686614773850 -
Or the people tasked with doing the counting can't get out.BigRich said:
That's a significant drop from yesterday, now the nation is in lock down, have they modified there policy on testing.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed
Or have the virus.0 -
Given how provocative Morgan was being, I think she comes out of this pretty well. And I have little time for the hundred gender folks.SandyRentool said:
I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.HYUFD said:
Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.0 -
Lord Prescott used his fists...Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
It's not about complete self isolationYBarddCwsc said:Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?
Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.
First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.
Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).
Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.
It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.
Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.
Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.0 -
So, locking down an entire province might work?Nigelb said:Interesting thread.
Huge scepticism about China’s official figures in the comments, but I can’t see how they could hide a continuing outbreak elsewhere in the country for any great length of time...
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1237198964182540290
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Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’
Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?
I mean - how?0 -
Or just the usual day to day variability you get in count data.BigRich said:
People washing there hands better and more often?MikeL said:Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.
Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?
Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?
Possibly combined with other spreading reducing meshurs e.g. not shacking hands, phoning in sick rather than going to work when starting to feel unwell.0 -
She knows she has lost - so can say whatever she wants to say, rather than what is required to win votes.SandyRentool said:
I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.HYUFD said:
Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.
But freed up to wibble ain't a great look.0 -
When Biden wins WH2020 I'll be happy (obvs) but there is going to be that little voice whispering to me, "We could have had Bernie!"WhisperingOracle said:Interesting. Both Sanders and Biden advancing on Trump to similar degrees. The fallout from the virus must be already affecting him.
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dire death rate thoughGardenwalker said:
That’s a “good” new infections rate.AndreaParma_82 said:Italy update
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed0 -
Piers Morgan self identifies as a horse’s arse.SandyRentool said:
I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.HYUFD said:
Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.0 -
The actual clip linked to there, she seems to handle it well. Piers gets himself into some weird place where he wants to self identify as a penguin and Nandy says it would be an improvement.SandyRentool said:
I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.HYUFD said:
Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.0 -
Given that the altercation was with an angry gun owner rather than an angry egg thrower fists would have been a less than optimal idea.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lord Prescott used his fists...Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
That is great news about America lifting the ban on British beef! Haggis next...1
