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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfai
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfair for the nomination
After his sensational change of fortune just ten days ago ex-VP, 77-year old Joe Biden heads into tonight’s round of primaries. The one that will be most watched is Michigan where Bernie Sanders pulled off a sensational victory of Clinton at WH2016. The polling, this time, is heavily for Biden. Michigan will be a key target for the Dems in Novermber.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing
Not all the data is completely up to date, and some countries are notably absent - eg Germany, Spain - but so far, we seem to be doing pretty well...
K&C and Hertfordshire you've singled out.
Hampshire now up to 10, from 2, 3 days ago.
Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.
First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.
Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).
Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom#Statistics
I would be interested to know how many of the recent (passed few days) cases are from people who have retered from other contrarys, and how many from inside the UK, I don't understand why they are not publishing this anymore?
As UK cases seem to be scattered rater than clustered, for the most part, that would suggest to me its still mostly from people who contracted it oversees but maybe I'm wrong.
20 cases are in Devon-Torbay-Cornwall.
However there are cases in every region.
No where is immune.
https://trib.al/Vaq5utG
The GOP is racing to stop a Texas candidate who tweets photos of women’s breasts and supports teaching students conspiracy theories: “We will crush him or I will light myself on fire.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/front-runner-for-texas-school-board-wants-to-teach-pole-dancing-conspiracy-theories-11583526093
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/486631-political-reporter-if-warren-waits-too-long-to-endorse-bernie-it-will-be
Or isn’t going to endorse at all.
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/gallery/publications/statistics-publication/2018/08/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2017-18/00539518.gif
Not sure if this helps or hinders Biden. He goes up in my estimation - it's rather refreshing to see a politician arguing back against idiocy - but I'm not the target market.
528 new cases for a total of 8514 currently infected.,
168 new deaths. 135 of them in Lombardy.
260 new healed
Plenty of gun owners, though, are unlikely to be offended.
This is not ‘deplorables’ - it’s a guy telling a guy who’s full of shit that he’s full of shit.
1. San Marino (1500 per million)
2. Vatican City (1000)
3. Iceland (190)
4. Italy (152)
5. S Korea (147)
6. St. Barts (111)
7. Iran (96)
8. Bahrain (65)
9. Switzerland (57)
10. China (56)
11. Norway (53)
12. Denmark (45)
...
xx. UK (6)
Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?
Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?
But....
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1237425468661477385
Peak cases, or weekend numbers?
1. She is female
2. She would shore up Minnesota and probably help in Wisconsin / Iowa
3. I think the Democrats hierarchy will be well aware there has to be a high chance Biden does not complete his first term, never mind his second. So the VP candidate will have to be someone who can step up to the plate. I can't see any of the others mentioned (Abrams, Harris etc) doing that
No sign of levelling off in Italy.
It's very important to know, either way.
Last 3 days:
7 Mar - 1,247
8 Mar - 1,492
9 Mar - 1,797
10 Mar - 977
>5 cases per 100k residents: Torbay, Kensington and Chelsea
> 2 per 100k: Brighton & Hove, Southwark, Barnet
>1 per 100k: Devon, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, Ealing, Hounslow, Hammersmith&Fulham, Westminster, Camden, Tower Hamlets, Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire, Wolverhampton, Liverpool, Bolton, Trafford, Bury, Oldham, York, Cumbria, Newcastle uT
Many of the areas reporting new cases are in a quadrant between north and west of Central London. Brighton and Torbay did not see a large uptick today.
We are relying on half-mashed Twitter reports from surgeons to understand how Italy is dealing with the plague.
Let alone Iran or South Korea.
Where are the intrepid journalists on the spot?
Where are the foreign stringers?
And can I note, Iceland.
Proportionally it has a worse outbreak than Italy, and nobody seems to have noticed.
Possibly combined with other spreading reducing meshurs e.g. not shacking hands, phoning in sick rather than going to work when starting to feel unwell.
The voter says: "It's your face and your voice".
The 2020 election folks.
The absolute dregs de la dregs.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237402789548081152?s=20
With New Rochelle, a small city just north of New York City in Westchester County, emerging as the center of the state’s outbreak, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York on Tuesday announced a targeted containment strategy to halt the spread of the virus.
The state’s plan focuses on a “containment area” in New Rochelle with a one-mile radius centered around a synagogue believed to be at the center of the cluster, officials said.
The beginning of the end is nigh.
I hope I get the toilet rolls I ordered.
Huge scepticism about China’s official figures in the comments, but I can’t see how they could hide a continuing outbreak elsewhere in the country for any great length of time...
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1237198964182540290
I just hope his other decisions are less suicidally stupid.
Now, that doesn't mean we should expect them to never drop the professional facade in their interactions with us, each to their own, but I also don't agree that we would expect them to talk to the public in precisely the same way as if they were not politicians. They are performing a role as political leaders, and just as we don't talk the same at work as we do at home, or if we were up before a judge or in a rap battle, so too they will communicate in a different way in different situations and to different people. The fact is they are what they are, and while there is not a need for constant massaging of their every utterance toward us, it does not follow that they should act as though they are not politicians.
But there is always a place, even for politicians, to speak plainly, even forcefully.
Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.
Or have the virus.
It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.
Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.
Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?
I mean - how?
But freed up to wibble ain't a great look.
I said they were value at 2.18 and I have backed them at 2.5.