As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
So she is quoting one scenario. There are many scenarios. Some with big numbers. Some with small numbers.
Or maybe the Government does, in fact, know best/what it is doing? More so than the keyboard warriors.
As I said, the gvt knows better than all of us what's going on. Their information chain is more complete (e.g. they know much than us re how cases are clustering, how much community transmission is being detected) and the eggheads processing this all and turning it into actionable advice to HMG are top-notch. Ministers are not hunting down twitter threads and preprint papers to work out what on Earth is going on. They have a rather dim electric torch while the rest of us are operating by candle-light.
But there's a lot they don't know for sure. They don't know what's going to happen next. They don't know how effective interventions are going to be. Even if they get the epidemiological modelling right, they can't predict the fickleness of popular emotions, in a free society they can't control either media-driven panic or media-driven ostrich-with-head-in-sand impersonation. If you look at How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? by Roy Anderson in the Lancet (a massively important academic in infectious disease modelling) it's clear a lot of his answers are "even we, the top experts in the field, don't really know how well things will work and don't even understand some basics of what's going on e.g. whether kids and presymptomatic people are going to be significant spreaders, which significantly undermines our attempts to make predictions of what should work, but here are our best guesses".
If this is the uncertainty the top guys have, what hope for us little guys? And I've got postgrad training in epidemiology, modelling, stats, economic evaluation. And enough time to read research papers. What's an individual or company with a more typical background going to do when government tells them to "judge their own risk"? Since the gvt have the better information, however uncertain, I wish they would
(1) TELL US WHAT TO DO TO REDUCE OUR RISKS. Like Edmund says, some of us would listen (esp those in high-risk groups!). Clearly we can, as individuals and organisations, do more than just "don't panic and wash your hands". And gvt knows what some of these are likely to be. Why not tell us? Information vacuum can lead to panicked and ineffective responses.
On the other hand, given all the uncertainties in even their own knowledge....
Perhaps the effect is so small at the moment that it's not worth it? They spent a lot of the previous press conference going on about how timing the response is critical.
(2) PLEASE DON'T TRY TO BE CLEVER-DICKS. If you don't know what's going to work, or how well it's going to work, how people are going to respond and so on, then I question their ability to somehow "get the timing right" for release of information, application of interventions etc. I appreciate they'll do as good a job as they can, but there's no point trying to be too smart about it. I hope that given uncertainties, they will err on the side of (a) prioritising the defeat of COVID-19 over other considerations, (b) where not in conflict with the above, being transparent with us all. Perhaps this is already baked in to their plans.
Yet another annual Budget ritual of kite flying bollx. How many times? Every year we have the 40% pension thing and the fuel tax. Neither ever happens.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
News from Italy tonight is horrible with fighting breaking out
Civil disorder is inevitable. It's one reason why I am getting out of London
Bravo!
Certain things are indeed inevitable...
My $0.02? He's doing it as an academic exercise to see what reaction he gets. He might then write it all up or if not just get some kind of satisfaction from it.
There's nowt as queer as folk.
Have I missed something with the London reference?
Everything for him revolves around London. It is a slight illogicality amongst many.
I am really not sure I get this wait till things get much worse before the lockdown. The idea that people are going to get bored or fed up seems, well, a bit far fetched, especially as it clearly won't stop the dying.
The indications from China, SK, Singapore, Japan and some others is that hyper aggressive approaches of various kinds work and produce a much smaller peak than we might otherwise expect.
I have no doubt people are doing their best and working very hard at this but have we got it right? I am not sure.
If no further policy change tomorrow then it's time to get the shotgun and head for the woods.
I have a choice between a hidden apartment in a posh Welsh seaside village or a primitive croft on Harris.
The latter is probably safer but God it would be tough.
Two weeks on Harris and you will be begging for the virus.
I expect that sort of thing from southern softies but Harris is now relatively civilised (as well as beautiful of course). 25 years ago the Rodel was the only source of drink in South Harris and it was Findus's finest on the shopping list. Now there's a bar/restaurant in Leverburgh and you can get Rioja and coriander in the Clachan. And then there's the Harris distillery of course..
I am really not sure I get this wait till things get much worse before the lockdown. The idea that people are going to get bored or fed up seems, well, a bit far fetched, especially as it clearly won't stop the dying.
The indications from China, SK, Singapore, Japan and some others is that hyper aggressive approaches of various kinds work and produce a much smaller peak than we might otherwise expect.
I have no doubt people are doing their best and working very hard at this but have we got it right? I am not sure.
I’m of your view David. Indeed so are many companies in London which have flipped to 80-100% homeworking. It needs to happen more widely.
You get the impression that a lot of sensible things are being done (cancellations, restricted travel, more homeworking, less international travel, etc) despite the government instead of at its instance.
I've generally been satisfied with Hancock's performance at a very difficult time though part of me wonders if Hunt would have been a safer pair of hands.
But his wishy-washy answers to anything involving home-working, and a couple of other relatively low-cost individual or business-led actions, have been unconvincing I think. There is some stuff that is only going to happen at full tilt e.g. at smaller firms (rather than the better-prepared MNCs which already have secure alternative locations etc) when government gives a more positive green or red light. For example "now's a time when it would be good to take action X if you can, even if right now we're not dictating that you absolutely must; moreover, even if you decide not to go ahead with it right now, you really need to get prepared and investigate how you will do it soon, because we may be pushing it firmly in the near future".
This. Social distancing well short of draconian lockdowns has a chance of working when the numbers are as low as they currently are. I get the feeling the government are being somewhat tardy in their advice.
I understand the difficulty, as large scale following of such advice is going to kill retail and leisure business for a period of time. But if they don’t act that is going to happen in any event.
Too slow. It's immensely frustrating.
Government following not leading.
Two things which ought to be possible without unacceptable costs are ramping up the official social distancing advice, and greatly increasing the rate of testing.
AND MAKE EVERYONE WEAR A MASK ALL THE TIME
Have you seen the videos of Chinese police brutally arresting people for not wearing masks?
I get why they did it, now. They are one of the single best ways of stopping spreading, if people HAVE to go out. If you're infected, you won't cough and sneeze over everyone, you will cough and sneeze into your mask.
It's so fucking absurdly pathetically surreally simple. We deserve to lose global leadership to the Asians if we can't grasp something that basic.
I thought the United States chief medical officer said masks are useless?
Oh God we could have half the government out ill at crucial time. I did wonder if it was wise to have the two egg heads leading this out and about meeting so many politicians, journos etc.
Time to bring back Dave, George, and Jeremy Hunt if the cabinet is incapacitated.
Was meeting a friend for dinner tonight, we went to a local independent restaurant that I go to about once a month on average. For the first time ever, completely empty, the entire time we were there. Its a restaurant that gets a lot of business through big Asian tourist groups. They said 100% of these reservations cancelled for March, 75% cancelled for April already. Hard to see how many of these smaller places will survive a sustained crisis. The economic damage will be huge.
You should be so lucky. If you had hot footed down to Cheltenham you wouldn't have found a table for love nor money.
Or maybe the Government does, in fact, know best/what it is doing? More so than the keyboard warriors.
As I said, the gvt knows better than all of us what's going on. Their information chain is more complete (e.g. they know much than us re how cases are clustering, how much community transmission is being detected) and the eggheads processing this all and turning it into actionable advice to HMG are top-notch. Ministers are not hunting down twitter threads and preprint papers to work out what on Earth is going on. They have a rather dim electric torch while the rest of us are operating by candle-light.
But there's a lot they don't know for sure. They don't know what's going to happen next. They don't know how effective interventions are going to be. Even if they get the epidemiological modelling right, they can't predict the fickleness of popular emotions, in a free society they can't control either media-driven panic or media-driven ostrich-with-head-in-sand impersonation. If you look at How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic? by Roy Anderson in the Lancet (a massively important academic in infectious disease modelling) it's clear a lot of his answers are "even we, the top experts in the field, don't really know how well things will work and don't even understand some basics of what's going on e.g. whether kids and presymptomatic people are going to be significant spreaders, which significantly undermines our attempts to make predictions of what should work, but here are our best guesses".
If this is the uncertainty the top guys have, what hope for us little guys? And I've got postgrad training in epidemiology, modelling, stats, economic evaluation. And enough time to read research papers. What's an individual or company with a more typical background going to do when government tells them to "judge their own risk"? Since the gvt have the better information, however uncertain, I wish they would
(1) TELL US WHAT TO DO TO REDUCE OUR RISKS. Like Edmund says, some of us would listen (esp those in high-risk groups!). Clearly we can, as individuals and organisations, do more than just "don't panic and wash your hands". And gvt knows what some of these are likely to be. Why not tell us? Information vacuum can lead to panicked and ineffective responses.
On the other hand, given all the uncertainties in even their own knowledge....
Perhaps the effect is so small at the moment that it's not worth it? They spent a lot of the previous press conference going on about how timing the response is critical.
(2) PLEASE DON'T TRY TO BE CLEVER-DICKS. If you don't know what's going to work, or how well it's going to work, how people are going to respond and so on, then I question their ability to somehow "get the timing right" for release of information, application of interventions etc. I appreciate they'll do as good a job as they can, but there's no point trying to be too smart about it. I hope that given uncertainties, they will err on the side of (a) prioritising the defeat of COVID-19 over other considerations, (b) where not in conflict with the above, being transparent with us all. Perhaps this is already baked in to their plans.
Excellent postings. I share some of your training and I agree. Like you, my concern is whether we are being too clever and actually we can't see the wood for the trees. With the wood being that if we act decisively and early, we can beat this.
By contrast if we daudle we might create a self fulfilling prophecy.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Yes, of course. After careful consideration, I have to admit that you were right, I was wrong.
Oh God we could have half the government out ill at crucial time. I did wonder if it was wise to have the two egg heads leading this out and about meeting so many politicians, journos etc.
Likewise the Royal Family.
There is a reason Death is pictured with a scythe. Tall poppies and short poppies: all are reaped.
Having read over 1300 of your rather depressing Coronavirus focused posts, this is perhaps the most depressing.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
Just to clarify, there is no evidence of two different strains causing differential mortality rates. Even the "L" "S" strain thing in the paper is irrelevant, because currently every Italian and German case is of the same strain.
The difference is that German cases skew young, and were caught early, the time from the onset of symptoms to death was over 8 weeks in some cases in China.
It would be good if Andy could stop pedalling his cherry-picking misinformation bullshit.
"On March 3, 23 out of 290 members of parliament—about 7.9 percent—had the disease. (Unlike ordinary people, these MPs probably had reliable access to diagnosis. State media insisted they contracted the disease not from one another, but from their home districts.) The rate of infection of parliamentarians would, if applied to Iran’s total population, come to 6.4 million cases."
Oh God we could have half the government out ill at crucial time. I did wonder if it was wise to have the two egg heads leading this out and about meeting so many politicians, journos etc.
Likewise the Royal Family.
There is a reason Death is pictured with a scythe. Tall poppies and short poppies: all are reaped.
Having read over 1300 of your rather depressing Coronavirus focused posts, this is perhaps the most depressing.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
Who on earth do you think you are.
And many on this forum would endorse my views
I will not be silent
STFU Big G. Tell us about cruises and big armchairs. That's about it.
Oh God we could have half the government out ill at crucial time. I did wonder if it was wise to have the two egg heads leading this out and about meeting so many politicians, journos etc.
Likewise the Royal Family.
There is a reason Death is pictured with a scythe. Tall poppies and short poppies: all are reaped.
You don't reap poppies, you leave them standing and slit the seed pod with a razor blade.
I am really not sure I get this wait till things get much worse before the lockdown. The idea that people are going to get bored or fed up seems, well, a bit far fetched, especially as it clearly won't stop the dying.
The indications from China, SK, Singapore, Japan and some others is that hyper aggressive approaches of various kinds work and produce a much smaller peak than we might otherwise expect.
I have no doubt people are doing their best and working very hard at this but have we got it right? I am not sure.
I’m of your view David. Indeed so are many companies in London which have flipped to 80-100% homeworking. It needs to happen more widely.
You get the impression that a lot of sensible things are being done (cancellations, restricted travel, more homeworking, less international travel, etc) despite the government instead of at its instance.
I've generally been satisfied with Hancock's performance at a very difficult time though part of me wonders if Hunt would have been a safer pair of hands.
But his wishy-washy answers to anything involving home-working, and a couple of other relatively low-cost individual or business-led actions, have been unconvincing I think. There is some stuff that is only going to happen at full tilt e.g. at smaller firms (rather than the better-prepared MNCs which already have secure alternative locations etc) when government gives a more positive green or red light. For example "now's a time when it would be good to take action X if you can, even if right now we're not dictating that you absolutely must; moreover, even if you decide not to go ahead with it right now, you really need to get prepared and investigate how you will do it soon, because we may be pushing it firmly in the near future".
This. Social distancing well short of draconian lockdowns has a chance of working when the numbers are as low as they currently are. I get the feeling the government are being somewhat tardy in their advice.
I understand the difficulty, as large scale following of such advice is going to kill retail and leisure business for a period of time. But if they don’t act that is going to happen in any event.
Too slow. It's immensely frustrating.
Government following not leading.
Two things which ought to be possible without unacceptable costs are ramping up the official social distancing advice, and greatly increasing the rate of testing.
AND MAKE EVERYONE WEAR A MASK ALL THE TIME
Have you seen the videos of Chinese police brutally arresting people for not wearing masks?
I get why they did it, now. They are one of the single best ways of stopping spreading, if people HAVE to go out. If you're infected, you won't cough and sneeze over everyone, you will cough and sneeze into your mask.
It's so fucking absurdly pathetically surreally simple. We deserve to lose global leadership to the Asians if we can't grasp something that basic.
I thought the United States chief medical officer said masks are useless?
They keep saying that because they don't want people to buy all the masks, meaning there are none left for healthworkers.
It's a fair point, but it is also a lie (in terms of utility). The ideal situation is when EVERYONE has a mask. They modestly limit your chances of being infected (if you use them right), they CERTAINLY limit your chances of spreading the bug, if you're a carrier.
This is my view also. It's a lie akin to carrots making you see better in the dark.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
Who on earth do you think you are.
And many on this forum would endorse my views
I will not be silent
STFU Big G. Tell us about cruises and big armchairs. That's about it.
Pathetic and sad - such intolerance and arrogance
And no answer on why the EU are not preventing the Greeks firing on the migrants
Oh God we could have half the government out ill at crucial time. I did wonder if it was wise to have the two egg heads leading this out and about meeting so many politicians, journos etc.
Likewise the Royal Family.
There is a reason Death is pictured with a scythe. Tall poppies and short poppies: all are reaped.
Having read over 1300 of your rather depressing Coronavirus focused posts, this is perhaps the most depressing.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
Who on earth do you think you are.
And many on this forum would endorse my views
I will not be silent
STFU Big G. Tell us about cruises and big armchairs. That's about it.
Pathetic and sad - such intolerance and arrogance
And no answer on why the EU are not preventing the Greeks firing on the migrants
Big G time for you to go to bed. Your ignorance is getting the better of you.
Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see
When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand
Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU
I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.
The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful
I think the Greeks are shooting at migrants to protect Greece
And no condemnation from the EU
Have to say they cannot keep taking all the economic migrants. How many have England taken in in last 6 or 7 years, we know who should be ashamed.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
She was certainly largely responsible for the hundreds of thousands who tried to cross the Med on boats.
But four years on, I think the responsibility for the migrants at the Turkish-Greek border are the responsibility of Erdogan. He has ordered buses to transport migrants from Turkey's Southern borders to the Greek border, and he supporting the migrants attempts to cross with police and soldiers.
As many as '60 to 70 per cent' of Germans will be infected with the deadly coronavirus, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned today, as the contagion threatened to rip through Europe.
She is therefore predicting that, on a conservative estimate, 480,000 Germans will die, and 4 million will require critical care in hospital. In the next few weeks.
83 million living in Germany and by my maths 70% of that is 58 million
Am I missing something or is she predicting 58 million Germans will be infected ?
Yes, she is predicting that
Maybe I misread your post - you seemed to say 4 million
She was referring to the WHO worst case scenario: - up to 70% infected - 5-10% in critical care i.e. 4 million - 1% fatalities
She didn't make a prediction.
Why did she say it in the first place. Hostage to fortune
Are you suggesting that the political leadership of the country stays silent about the impending crisis? She had refrained from comment thus far, largely.
She already caused chaos with her open invitation to migrants when prudence would have been wise, so the same with this
Why did her open invitation to migrants cause chaos?
Did your life become more chaotic?
It is accepted that she made a huge error which continues to be played out on the Greek border
No it isn't.
How did your life become more chaotic?
It did for millions of migrants and communitues around Europe
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
Exactly on whose behalf are you speaking? Are you intimately acquainted with "millions of migrants and communities around Europe"?
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
Who on earth do you think you are.
And many on this forum would endorse my views
I will not be silent
STFU Big G. Tell us about cruises and big armchairs. That's about it.
Pathetic and sad - such intolerance and arrogance
And no answer on why the EU are not preventing the Greeks firing on the migrants
The Greeks are firing on the migrants because the migrants are being used as a weapon of war by the Turks. It is a deliberate attempt to destabilize the Greek state.
I tend to steer clear of hyperbole on here, but your righteous anger would be better directed at Erdogan than the Greek government.
Comments
Conspiracies theories begin.
And why have the EU done nothing about the Greeks opening fire on the migrants
We can even tell him that it’s to ensure the continuity of government.
By contrast if we daudle we might create a self fulfilling prophecy.
No of course you're not.
You have precisely zero basis upon which to opine. A period of silence would be welcome now from you.
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1236118205925445633
The difference is that German cases skew young, and were caught early, the time from the onset of symptoms to death was over 8 weeks in some cases in China.
It would be good if Andy could stop pedalling his cherry-picking misinformation bullshit.
But she should then have been aware of the importance of PPE and cleaning.
A similar argument was made about Iran last week:
"On March 3, 23 out of 290 members of parliament—about 7.9 percent—had the disease. (Unlike ordinary people, these MPs probably had reliable access to diagnosis. State media insisted they contracted the disease not from one another, but from their home districts.) The rate of infection of parliamentarians would, if applied to Iran’s total population, come to 6.4 million cases."
Also what happens to Nad's votes. Can the Gov't pair her off ?
This thread is in self-isolation
And many on this forum would endorse my views
I will not be silent
Worried well staying away. Still quick service, no waiting.
NEW THREAD
Perhaps by announcing the health minister had become infected ?
Just make more masks.
And no answer on why the EU are not preventing the Greeks firing on the migrants
How many of them are infected ?
North Dakota is a firehouse caucus, I believe, so I wouldn't be surprised if he wins that. Idaho is tiny, so why not.
Michigan will, I think, be Biden, as will Missouri and Mississippi
But four years on, I think the responsibility for the migrants at the Turkish-Greek border are the responsibility of Erdogan. He has ordered buses to transport migrants from Turkey's Southern borders to the Greek border, and he supporting the migrants attempts to cross with police and soldiers.
That is very close to an act of war.
I tend to steer clear of hyperbole on here, but your righteous anger would be better directed at Erdogan than the Greek government.