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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Biden goes into tonight’s primaries as an 88% chance on Betfai

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  • ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Same way the PLP came up with Owen Smith as the best person to defeat Corbyn in 2016?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Do not go gently into that good night....
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    edited March 2020
    @Sandpit took the trouble to respond on the previous thread to my comments on the state of the LDs.

    He said "the party needs to be unashamedly liberal - backing freedom of speech and assembly".

    Okay, apart from the notion there's a bit more to liberalism than that, I'm interested in this notion that being liberal means supporting freedom of speech.

    Historically, those who campaigned for freedom of speech were campaigning for opportunity and plurality of speech, allowing different voices to be heard which weren't being heard in a society and political culture which concentrated power and the opportunity to voice opinion in very few hands.

    Freedom of Speech went hand in hand with plural democracy in which all voices could be heard equally and everyone had the opportunity to voice their opinion and for that opinion to be heard and acknowledged.

    That has evolved with the coming of the Internet and other mass forums of opinion - true, too many voices are still not heard and usually for the age old reason of poverty and lack of opportunity but for many freedom of speech exists inasmuch as the keyboard and the Web provide the conduit to opinion.

    What then should freedom of speech mean to the liberal today? The right to offend, the right to be offended, the right to tolerate any and all voices or the right to be intolerant of that which is offensive or offends?

    For too long, liberals have been forced to cower behind the mantra of "I don't agree with what you say but I'll defend your right to say it" which has empowered the provocateurs and the trolls. Yet move or argue against them and the litany of "freedom of speech" is thrown back. At the same time, too many voices remain unheard. There's a dilemma in all of that - to restrict speech to defined boundaries or to empower the troll and the provocateur.

    The law, by virtue of libel, slander and hate crime provision, supposedly provides some boundaries but does it?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This counts as political betting (though the actual fraction used offends me):

    https://twitter.com/jordanschnyc/status/1237105723215142916
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    reasonable first day at Cheltenham, got a place Yankee , up £30+, 1 winner and 3 placed
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    The reporting on coronavirus is awful.

    We are relying on half-mashed Twitter reports from surgeons to understand how Italy is dealing with the plague.

    Let alone Iran or South Korea.

    Where are the intrepid journalists on the spot?
    Where are the foreign stringers?

    And can I note, Iceland.
    Proportionally it has a worse outbreak than Italy, and nobody seems to have noticed.

    The problem is when you start ranking things per capita you often get a few very small countries high up on the list.

    A similar example is that very often the country that tops the olympic medal table by capita is a Pacific island which has 10 000 people and won 1 gold medal.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Because Buttigieg was too young and Sherrod Brown didn't get any traction for reasons I don't understand.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Same way the PLP came up with Owen Smith as the best person to defeat Corbyn in 2016?
    That’s harsh.

    While I do love trolling Corbynistas by pointing out the parallels between Trump and Corbyn, Owen Smith can at least form a coherent sentence.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,841
    HYUFD said:
    This is government subsidies for Tory voters - RBS (incl Natwest) is still majority govt owned and the policies make no commercial sense. Free market? Not when it comes to asset owners and renters, the poor have to subsidise the rich.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020
    eristdoof said:

    BigRich said:

    MikeL said:

    Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.

    Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?

    Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?

    People washing there hands better and more often?

    Possibly combined with other spreading reducing meshurs e.g. not shacking hands, phoning in sick rather than going to work when starting to feel unwell.

    Or just the usual day to day variability you get in count data.
    Or the fact that a substantial portion of the most affected region's cases data didn't come in on time and will be announced tomorrow.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230

    I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.

    Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.

    Morgan asked her if it would be OK if he "identified as a penguin".

    She said, sure, it would be an improvement.

    That was good, I thought.

    But of course he charmlessly banged on instead of dropping it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    MikeL said:

    Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.

    Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?

    Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?

    It's like this.

    Imagine that you pass the virus onto one in a thousand people you interact with. So under normal circumstances you might interact with 300 people a day, so you'll infect someone once every three or so days. (Who will also go onto infect people, etc.)

    But if you drop the number of people you interact with down to (say) 50, then you're only going to infect someone once every twenty days. If you are only infectious on average for 14 days, then you will see new cases plateau and then fall relatively quickly.

    However, if social interactions return to the previous level the virus will clearly flare up again. So a protracted period of low levels of social interaction is required. (Supported, of course, by attempts to find a cure or a vaccine.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    My betting position tonight is #fuckoffSanders

    It would also be #fuckoffClinton and #fuckoffObama but that’s a bit harsh, particularly for the latter, because they never turned up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Same way the PLP came up with Owen Smith as the best person to defeat Corbyn in 2016?
    That’s harsh.

    While I do love trolling Corbynistas by pointing out the parallels between Trump and Corbyn, Owen Smith can at least form a coherent sentence.
    But any that you can remember?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Same way the PLP came up with Owen Smith as the best person to defeat Corbyn in 2016?
    That’s harsh.

    While I do love trolling Corbynistas by pointing out the parallels between Trump and Corbyn, Owen Smith can at least form a coherent sentence.
    Look I know in Wales forming coherent sentences is the sign of a Nobel Prize winning mind but the rest of us have higher expectations.

    Owen Smith was useless as Italy as an ally in WW2.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020
    Nigelb said:

    Interesting thread.
    Huge scepticism about China’s official figures in the comments, but I can’t see how they could hide a continuing outbreak elsewhere in the country for any great length of time...

    https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1237198964182540290

    I think it is nailed on they are massaging the figures to the fit the narrative that the Great nation / the party has won this war, which the state media is pumping out around the clock.

    However, if it was a total shit show in other regions, with 1000s overflowing hospitals again, we would be seeing leaked footage by now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    sarissa said:

    Sandpit said:

    What was the price of a barrel of oil in September 2014?

    Around $100
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
    Irrelevant as N sea income had been destroyed by Osborne in his 2011 Budget tax grab.
    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/gallery/publications/statistics-publication/2018/08/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2017-18/00539518.gif
    I'm sorry, but that's not true.

    Scotland's oil industry is not just about North Sea barrels in British territorial waters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    HYUFD said:
    This is government subsidies for Tory voters - RBS (incl Natwest) is still majority govt owned and the policies make no commercial sense. Free market? Not when it comes to asset owners and renters, the poor have to subsidise the rich.
    This seems to be more exploitative than altruistic. My mortgage has clauses in it that allow for payment holidays, deferred payments, and hardship applications. All they are doing is linking them to Coronavirus to get some free advertising.

    Moreover, since it’s a time consuming and expensive process to repossess a house, it is unlikely that they would want to go after millions of defaulters at once.

    A more practical and valuable way forward would be measures to protect tenants - say, a grace period if the area goes into lockdown, or a minimum rental payment for a period, or an undertaking that minimum mortgage costs will not be claimable (although why anyone would have a mortgage on a BTL) is beyond my comprehension, frankly). That would certainly ease an awful lot of fears.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    kinabalu said:

    I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.

    Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.

    Morgan asked her if it would be OK if he "identified as a penguin".

    She said, sure, it would be an improvement.

    That was good, I thought.

    But of course he charmlessly banged on instead of dropping it.
    Maybe it's just me but I really see parallels between this and Boris saying allowing gay marriage would be like allowing marriage between three men and a dog.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.

    Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.
    Piers Morgan self identifies as a horse’s arse.
    Piers Morgan can self-identify with whatever he wants.

    The important thing is that all sentient beings identify him as a c**t.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230
    edited March 2020

    Because Buttigieg was too young and Sherrod Brown didn't get any traction for reasons I don't understand.

    I thought Kamala Harris was a great proposition but she clearly did not have whatever it is that makes a viable candidate over there in that strange land across the sea.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    MrEd said:

    Kind of on topic, I have just put some money on Amy Klobuchar as Biden's VP choice (I'm assuming Biden wins the nomination) as,

    1. She is female
    2. She would shore up Minnesota and probably help in Wisconsin / Iowa
    3. I think the Democrats hierarchy will be well aware there has to be a high chance Biden does not complete his first term, never mind his second. So the VP candidate will have to be someone who can step up to the plate. I can't see any of the others mentioned (Abrams, Harris etc) doing that

    I don't think that's stupid at all.

    However, I'm following the principle of selling *all* the front runners.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited March 2020

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Same way the PLP came up with Owen Smith as the best person to defeat Corbyn in 2016?
    That’s harsh.

    While I do love trolling Corbynistas by pointing out the parallels between Trump and Corbyn, Owen Smith can at least form a coherent sentence.
    Look I know in Wales forming coherent sentences is the sign of a Nobel Prize winning mind but the rest of us have higher expectations.
    Not the Dems, apparently.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,380
    stodge said:

    @Sandpit took the trouble to respond on the previous thread to my comments on the state of the LDs.

    He said "the party needs to be unashamedly liberal - backing freedom of speech and assembly".

    Okay, apart from the notion there's a bit more to liberalism than that, I'm interested in this notion that being liberal means supporting freedom of speech.

    Historically, those who campaigned for freedom of speech were campaigning for opportunity and plurality of speech, allowing different voices to be heard which weren't being heard in a society and political culture which concentrated power and the opportunity to voice opinion in very few hands.

    Freedom of Speech went hand in hand with plural democracy in which all voices could be heard equally and everyone had the opportunity to voice their opinion and for that opinion to be heard and acknowledged.

    That has evolved with the coming of the Internet and other mass forums of opinion - true, too many voices are still not heard and usually for the age old reason of poverty and lack of opportunity but for many freedom of speech exists inasmuch as the keyboard and the Web provide the conduit to opinion.

    What then should freedom of speech mean to the liberal today? The right to offend, the right to be offended, the right to tolerate any and all voices or the right to be intolerant of that which is offensive or offends?

    For too long, liberals have been forced to cower behind the mantra of "I don't agree with what you say but I'll defend your right to say it" which has empowered the provocateurs and the trolls. Yet move or argue against them and the litany of "freedom of speech" is thrown back. At the same time, too many voices remain unheard. There's a dilemma in all of that - to restrict speech to defined boundaries or to empower the troll and the provocateur.

    The law, by virtue of libel, slander and hate crime provision, supposedly provides some boundaries but does it?

    That's the problem with freedom of speech - it involve the freedom to say offensive things.

    There was a chap who started a fight, pretty much every time he made a speech. A number of people died - his response was to kill some of them himself. And write a pamphlet on how to kill people with a knife effectively.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassius_Marcellus_Clay_(politician)
  • Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.

    Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.
    Piers Morgan self identifies as a horse’s arse.
    Piers Morgan can self-identify with whatever he wants.

    The important thing is that all sentient beings identify him as a c**t.
    I don't identify Piers Morgan as a c**t, he doesn't has the depth nor the warmth to be one, or give pleasure to anyone.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Same way the PLP came up with Owen Smith as the best person to defeat Corbyn in 2016?
    That’s harsh.

    While I do love trolling Corbynistas by pointing out the parallels between Trump and Corbyn, Owen Smith can at least form a coherent sentence.
    Look I know in Wales forming coherent sentences is the sign of a Nobel Prize winning mind but the rest of us have higher expectations.

    Owen Smith was useless as Italy as an ally in WW2.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_Co-belligerent_Army
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.

    Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.
    Piers Morgan self identifies as a horse’s arse.
    Piers Morgan can self-identify with whatever he wants.

    The important thing is that all sentient beings identify him as a c**t.
    One of Alan Davies’ great moments was, when asked to define ‘countryside’ on QI, riposted, ‘the murder of Piers Morgan.’
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    I saw this interview this morning. Lisa was very poor. The sort of wibbling nonsense I thought she was able to rise above.

    Alas it appears that this whole self identification issue is enough to get her tied up in knots.
    Piers Morgan self identifies as a horse’s arse.
    Piers Morgan can self-identify with whatever he wants.

    The important thing is that all sentient beings identify him as a c**t.
    Far too nice a thing for him to be compared to.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    HYUFD said:
    I'm rather shocked that the Americans maintained their ban for over twenty years since the end of the BSE crisis.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    edited March 2020
    Italy hot spots by the same approach:

    >200 cases per 100k: Lodi, Cremona, Piacenza
    >100 per 100k: Bergamo
    >50 per 100k: Pavia, Brescia, Parma, Pesaro, Rimini one case below

    Provinces of Lombardy with lower case rates than Kensington & Chelsea <9per100k): Como, Varese, Monza


    <blockquote class="UserQuote">
    Pro_Rata said:

    England coronavirus warm spots. Given the still low number of cases per area, it would be incorrect to view these as outbreaks as opposed to clusters, but rather places where the initial outbreaks are looking a little more likely, especially where neighbouring areas appear. It is perfectly possible for a dozen or so cases to be in a closed group who have all been isolated and the infection chain broken:

    >5 cases per 100k residents: Torbay, Kensington and Chelsea
    > 2 per 100k: Brighton & Hove, Southwark, Barnet
    >1 per 100k: Devon, Bracknell Forest, Wokingham, Ealing, Hounslow, Hammersmith&Fulham, Westminster, Camden, Tower Hamlets, Hertfordshire, Oxfordshire, Wolverhampton, Liverpool, Bolton, Trafford, Bury, Oldham, York, Cumbria, Newcastle uT

    Many of the areas reporting new cases are in a quadrant between north and west of Central London. Brighton and Torbay did not see a large uptick today.



  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020
    Budget 2020: Chancellor will promise 'record' infrastructure spend

    The government will promise to raise infrastructure spending to its highest in decades in Wednesday's Budget.

    It will pledge to triple the average net investment made over the last 40 years into rail and road, affordable housing, broadband and research.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51823021
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'm rather shocked that the Americans maintained their ban for over twenty years since the end of the BSE crisis.
    Since their herd was riddled with BSE anyway (although not to the extent of the French herd) I don’t think it was ever about BSE!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Do not go gently into that good night....
    Do not go gentle into that good night ...
  • Honestly when I was at the Champions League final last year mentally preparing for losing to Spurs the only solace I could take from Spurs winning the Champions League was that it would make the head of the Arsenal supporting Piers Morgan explode.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.

    Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?

    Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?

    It's like this.

    Imagine that you pass the virus onto one in a thousand people you interact with. So under normal circumstances you might interact with 300 people a day, so you'll infect someone once every three or so days. (Who will also go onto infect people, etc.)

    But if you drop the number of people you interact with down to (say) 50, then you're only going to infect someone once every twenty days. If you are only infectious on average for 14 days, then you will see new cases plateau and then fall relatively quickly.

    However, if social interactions return to the previous level the virus will clearly flare up again. So a protracted period of low levels of social interaction is required. (Supported, of course, by attempts to find a cure or a vaccine.)
    That’s well put.

    This virus is unlikely to be put back in its box, unless by some miracle it dies out under a global six month lock down, so a vaccine is the game.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Do not go gently into that good night....
    Do not go gentle into that good night ...
    Indeed.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    I don’t like Trump, but I must admit I find his tweets trolling the Democrats over their nominee race rather funny.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230
    rkrkrk said:

    Maybe it's just me but I really see parallels between this and Boris saying allowing gay marriage would be like allowing marriage between three men and a dog.

    Yes, it is - literally - dehumanizing. With a generous side helping of facile facetiousness. Just not tremendous.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.

    Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?

    Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?

    It's like this.

    Imagine that you pass the virus onto one in a thousand people you interact with. So under normal circumstances you might interact with 300 people a day, so you'll infect someone once every three or so days. (Who will also go onto infect people, etc.)

    But if you drop the number of people you interact with down to (say) 50, then you're only going to infect someone once every twenty days. If you are only infectious on average for 14 days, then you will see new cases plateau and then fall relatively quickly.

    However, if social interactions return to the previous level the virus will clearly flare up again. So a protracted period of low levels of social interaction is required. (Supported, of course, by attempts to find a cure or a vaccine.)
    That’s well put.

    This virus is unlikely to be put back in its box, unless by some miracle it dies out under a global six month lock down, so a vaccine is the game.
    An instant / extremely rapid test would also help massively.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    Perhaps a lock down might not be all bad...perhaps people will have time to learn new skills / conceive new ideas and business opportunities...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9oqvJ3iXGI
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    Formula 1 has announced a new long-term sponsorship deal with the Saudi Arabian Oil Company.
    https://www.racefans.net/2020/03/10/f1-signs-long-term-sponsorship-deal-with-worlds-biggest-polluter-saudi-aramco/

    This could be the year it finally jumps the shark.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'm rather shocked that the Americans maintained their ban for over twenty years since the end of the BSE crisis.
    What's quite nice is that they've lifted it now rather than keep it as a 'prize' in the FTA negotiations.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is government subsidies for Tory voters - RBS (incl Natwest) is still majority govt owned and the policies make no commercial sense. Free market? Not when it comes to asset owners and renters, the poor have to subsidise the rich.
    This seems to be more exploitative than altruistic. My mortgage has clauses in it that allow for payment holidays, deferred payments, and hardship applications. All they are doing is linking them to Coronavirus to get some free advertising.

    Moreover, since it’s a time consuming and expensive process to repossess a house, it is unlikely that they would want to go after millions of defaulters at once.

    A more practical and valuable way forward would be measures to protect tenants - say, a grace period if the area goes into lockdown, or a minimum rental payment for a period, or an undertaking that minimum mortgage costs will not be claimable (although why anyone would have a mortgage on a BTL) is beyond my comprehension, frankly). That would certainly ease an awful lot of fears.
    I wonder why you think people would not have a mortgage on a BTL, if they moved and were unable to sell old house and so rented it out they are likely to still have a mortgage, it is more likely the rule rather than the exception , not many are gifted a property they can rent out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Andy_JS said:

    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We need some statisticians here to model the probability this is just chance with MoE with a limited dataset rather than a shit hot healthcare system.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,841
    stodge said:

    @Sandpit took the trouble to respond on the previous thread to my comments on the state of the LDs.

    He said "the party needs to be unashamedly liberal - backing freedom of speech and assembly".

    Okay, apart from the notion there's a bit more to liberalism than that, I'm interested in this notion that being liberal means supporting freedom of speech.

    Historically, those who campaigned for freedom of speech were campaigning for opportunity and plurality of speech, allowing different voices to be heard which weren't being heard in a society and political culture which concentrated power and the opportunity to voice opinion in very few hands.

    Freedom of Speech went hand in hand with plural democracy in which all voices could be heard equally and everyone had the opportunity to voice their opinion and for that opinion to be heard and acknowledged.

    That has evolved with the coming of the Internet and other mass forums of opinion - true, too many voices are still not heard and usually for the age old reason of poverty and lack of opportunity but for many freedom of speech exists inasmuch as the keyboard and the Web provide the conduit to opinion.

    What then should freedom of speech mean to the liberal today? The right to offend, the right to be offended, the right to tolerate any and all voices or the right to be intolerant of that which is offensive or offends?

    For too long, liberals have been forced to cower behind the mantra of "I don't agree with what you say but I'll defend your right to say it" which has empowered the provocateurs and the trolls. Yet move or argue against them and the litany of "freedom of speech" is thrown back. At the same time, too many voices remain unheard. There's a dilemma in all of that - to restrict speech to defined boundaries or to empower the troll and the provocateur.

    The law, by virtue of libel, slander and hate crime provision, supposedly provides some boundaries but does it?

    For me the principles are relatively simple, of course there will be borderline issues.

    We should have the right to free speech that does not incite violence, involve libel slander or limited copyright restrictions.

    That definitely includes the right to offend.

    It does not give the speaker the right to avoid any social consequences of their views being spoken. The speaker must be protected by the state from violent threats and acts against them because of their free speech but not protection from being mocked or shunned for their views.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited March 2020
    Apologies if this was posted earlier...

    Statutory Instruments
    2020 No. 129

    Public Health, England
    The Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020


    https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/129/contents/made
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rcs1000 said:

    Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?

    Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.

    First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.

    Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).

    Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

    It's not about complete self isolation

    It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.

    Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.

    Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
    This is the NHS on self-isolation

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

    It is about complete self isolation.

    I obviously take your sensible point, but the NHS advice is as I described it.

    "Do not invite visitors to your home or allow visitors to enter, do not go to work, school or public areas, do not use public transport like buses, trains, tubes or taxis, do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding or other items with other people in your home."

    It would be hard for someone returning from vacation to do that without some help.
  • Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    I don’t like Trump, but I must admit I find his tweets trolling the Democrats over their nominee race rather funny.

    Trump can be pretty funny. Not always in the way he wants, but plenty of times in the way he wants. It can be annoying when he is genuinely funny because he is so loathsome I would prefer not finding it so.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Donald Trump. ‘I do not intend to make this election about age. I will not exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s senility and octogenarianism.’

    Of course, that would be far too classy for Trump. He’llmore probably make up some series of lies linking Biden to the mafia. But how the actual fuck are we talking about a Democratic front runner who is older than the oldest first time president ever elected, and an alternative who is older than that?

    I mean - how?

    Do not go gently into that good night....
    Do not go gentle into that good night ...
    Indeed.
    That’s from that poem by.. you know... the thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Nigelb said:

    Formula 1 has announced a new long-term sponsorship deal with the Saudi Arabian Oil Company.
    https://www.racefans.net/2020/03/10/f1-signs-long-term-sponsorship-deal-with-worlds-biggest-polluter-saudi-aramco/

    This could be the year it finally jumps the shark.

    Well, TBF, the idea that Formula 1 could ever be greener, never mind green, was devised by somebody with all the intellect of Cummings with Burgon subtracted.

    I mean, they drive enormous cars around small tracks at high speed for no reason FFS.

    And the fly them there and back.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.

    Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?

    Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?

    It's like this.

    Imagine that you pass the virus onto one in a thousand people you interact with. So under normal circumstances you might interact with 300 people a day, so you'll infect someone once every three or so days. (Who will also go onto infect people, etc.)

    But if you drop the number of people you interact with down to (say) 50, then you're only going to infect someone once every twenty days. If you are only infectious on average for 14 days, then you will see new cases plateau and then fall relatively quickly.

    However, if social interactions return to the previous level the virus will clearly flare up again. So a protracted period of low levels of social interaction is required. (Supported, of course, by attempts to find a cure or a vaccine.)
    That’s well put.

    This virus is unlikely to be put back in its box, unless by some miracle it dies out under a global six month lock down, so a vaccine is the game.
    A combination of lower levels of interaction, and better personal hygiene means that health services are less likely to be overwhelmed, which is also a positive. We'll also work out which treatments are most effective, which will make a difference.

    I am now broadly confident that countries outside the US now know how to contain the virus. Here in the US, though, life continues as if there is no virus.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,359
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    I'm rather shocked that the Americans maintained their ban for over twenty years since the end of the BSE crisis.
    I am amazed that this clown thinks £66M over 5 years is big news, it would not cover the Tories expenses at the trough and certainly not Grayling's ferry losses etc. What an absolute bell end TRuss is.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited March 2020

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?

    Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.

    First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.

    Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).

    Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

    It's not about complete self isolation

    It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.

    Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.

    Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
    This is the NHS on self-isolation

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

    It is about complete self isolation.

    I obviously take your sensible point, but the NHS advice is as I described it.

    "Do not invite visitors to your home or allow visitors to enter, do not go to work, school or public areas, do not use public transport like buses, trains, tubes or taxis, do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding or other items with other people in your home."

    It would be hard for someone returning from vacation to do that without some help.
    There must be a fair few people self isolating, if my circle isn’t completely unrepresentative. I know three. One guy just back from Tenerife who wants to do the right thing. One woman who has medical issues and doesn’t want to get ill. And one woman who has SeanT’s cold.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020

    Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful

    Outside of being a straight trading block, when you get into all the other stuff they like to stick their beaks into, the problem is that they are both extremely slow and bureaucratic making decisions effecting 100s millions of people.

    At that scale, you either have to be like China / US / Russia, where you can literally overnight say, this is the deal, get with the programme, or be smaller and nimble like South Korea / Singapore.

    Having 27 different countries, all with different financial might, customs, requirements, etc etc etc all having to find a common path, you will never do that quickly or easily.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?

    Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.

    First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.

    Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).

    Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

    It's not about complete self isolation

    It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.

    Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.

    Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
    This is the NHS on self-isolation

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

    It is about complete self isolation.

    I obviously take your sensible point, but the NHS advice is as I described it.

    "Do not invite visitors to your home or allow visitors to enter, do not go to work, school or public areas, do not use public transport like buses, trains, tubes or taxis, do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding or other items with other people in your home."

    It would be hard for someone returning from vacation to do that without some help.
    I tend to the view that NHS guidelines are set deliberately in the knowledge that most people won't follow them perfectly but that it'll end up being good enough the vast majority of the time.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful

    No it’s not it is just showing that we weren’t in a superstate that’s controlled our lives, countries are free to make their own Decisions. What on earth did you expect the EU to do in the current circumstances?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited March 2020

    Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful

    I've wavered on the EU but even when advocating staying in after changing my mind, it wasnt a deep love of the institution. But have they demanded anything? Genuine question. And is a lack of demands bad if they know to let individual countries take the lead? Did you want them to make demands?

    Your last point is obviously more critical but seems counter to your first sentence about impotence. Or as eadric notes, the Greeks are looking out for themselves. It might just happen to align.

    I honestly dont know if the EU has stuck its oar in and been ignored, or taken a step back Iintentionally, so the attack seems kind of out of nowhere.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,841
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Number of new daily cases appears now to be falling in France and Germany.

    Adding that to what's already happened in China and South Korea - is there a chance it is being brought under control?

    Albeit I'm not sure how that would be the case?

    It's like this.

    Imagine that you pass the virus onto one in a thousand people you interact with. So under normal circumstances you might interact with 300 people a day, so you'll infect someone once every three or so days. (Who will also go onto infect people, etc.)

    But if you drop the number of people you interact with down to (say) 50, then you're only going to infect someone once every twenty days. If you are only infectious on average for 14 days, then you will see new cases plateau and then fall relatively quickly.

    However, if social interactions return to the previous level the virus will clearly flare up again. So a protracted period of low levels of social interaction is required. (Supported, of course, by attempts to find a cure or a vaccine.)
    That’s well put.

    This virus is unlikely to be put back in its box, unless by some miracle it dies out under a global six month lock down, so a vaccine is the game.
    A combination of lower levels of interaction, and better personal hygiene means that health services are less likely to be overwhelmed, which is also a positive. We'll also work out which treatments are most effective, which will make a difference.

    I am now broadly confident that countries outside the US now know how to contain the virus. Here in the US, though, life continues as if there is no virus.
    The Trump/Pence press conference last night was completely shocking. I would rather pick 10 randoms off the street and put them in charge than the team gathered there yesterday.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    edited March 2020

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We need some statisticians here to model the probability this is just chance with MoE with a limited dataset rather than a shit hot healthcare system.
    Absolutely. At the same time, you'd expect Germany if anything to have slightly more fatalities than other countries since it has the second-oldest population in the world after Japan. (Some sources say Italy is in second place; it's pretty close between the two countries).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,230
    kle4 said:

    Trump can be pretty funny. Not always in the way he wants, but plenty of times in the way he wants. It can be annoying when he is genuinely funny because he is so loathsome I would prefer not finding it so.

    Trump makes me laugh a lot. But it's almost never with him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    kle4 said:

    I don’t like Trump, but I must admit I find his tweets trolling the Democrats over their nominee race rather funny.

    Trump can be pretty funny. Not always in the way he wants, but plenty of times in the way he wants. It can be annoying when he is genuinely funny because he is so loathsome I would prefer not finding it so.
    I get that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?

    Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.

    First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.

    Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).

    Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

    It's not about complete self isolation

    It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.

    Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.

    Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
    This is the NHS on self-isolation

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

    It is about complete self isolation.

    I obviously take your sensible point, but the NHS advice is as I described it.

    "Do not invite visitors to your home or allow visitors to enter, do not go to work, school or public areas, do not use public transport like buses, trains, tubes or taxis, do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding or other items with other people in your home."

    It would be hard for someone returning from vacation to do that without some help.
    I could have phrased myself better.

    "You don't need to have complete isolation to dramatically slow the progress of the virus. Anything which limits your interactions with others reduces the likelihood the virus will spread."
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We need some statisticians here to model the probability this is just chance with MoE with a limited dataset rather than a shit hot healthcare system.
    Isn't a consequence of their infected being mostly young people?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020
    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Spain is not good. It has suddenly overtaken France, with 1646 cases, and has 35 deaths (30 in France)

    The coronavirus is no respecter of "the Mediterranean diet"
    I am sure the Mediterranean culture of embrace and the still large presence of the catholic church in people's lives is a big factor. When you have such a disease going around hugging / kissing everybody you meet and sharing the cup at communion is far from ideal.

    On the flip side, the Mediterranean diet has probably got a lot of these people to 70/80 when they might not have done otherwise.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    eadric said:
    That misses off South Korea and Singapore. Both of which have seen dramatic flattenings of their curves.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?

    Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.

    First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.

    Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).

    Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

    It's not about complete self isolation

    It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.

    Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.

    Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
    This is the NHS on self-isolation

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

    It is about complete self isolation.

    I obviously take your sensible point, but the NHS advice is as I described it.

    "Do not invite visitors to your home or allow visitors to enter, do not go to work, school or public areas, do not use public transport like buses, trains, tubes or taxis, do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding or other items with other people in your home."

    It would be hard for someone returning from vacation to do that without some help.
    There must be a fair few people self isolating, if my circle isn’t completely unrepresentative. I know three. One guy just back from Tenerife who wants to do the right thing. One woman who has medical issues and doesn’t want to get ill. And one woman who has SeanT’s cold.
    A long-term collaborator, who popped over to China in the middle of January for a week to celebrate the lunar new year, is finally returning to the UK next week.

    So, I was interested to see the NHS self-isolation page to see what he needs to do, and whether I could help him.

    Of course, I shall be very interested to hear what he has to say about what has been going on in China -- he was in Nanjing.

    From what he has said via email, even Nanjing was on virtual lockdown, with nothing open for over a month.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    rcs1000 said:

    sarissa said:

    Sandpit said:

    What was the price of a barrel of oil in September 2014?

    Around $100
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
    Irrelevant as N sea income had been destroyed by Osborne in his 2011 Budget tax grab.
    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/gallery/publications/statistics-publication/2018/08/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2017-18/00539518.gif
    I'm sorry, but that's not true.

    Scotland's oil industry is not just about North Sea barrels in British territorial waters.
    Although after the last couple of days you may well find that the whole Scottish oil industry is back on its knees again.

    The last downturn cost 120,000 jobs in the UK Oil Industry and very few of those came back. As of today we are looking at further large scale cuts very quickly.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, on self-isolation after a skiing or any other kind of holiday, is it that easy?

    Suppose Our Man into Tyrol manages to return to Barnes.

    First, he has to get from Heathrow/Luton/Stansted Airport to Barnes.

    Second, his cupboard is bare of milk, bread and supplies. There are long delays in getting supermarkets to deliver at the moment (a week in my part of the world).

    Without friendly and accommodating neighbours, then it is not going to be so easy for a returning holiday-maker to self-isolate for 2 weeks.

    It's not about complete self isolation

    It's about changing the quantity of people you have physical interactions with. If you live in London, travel by tube to the office, where you spend time with a lot of people, you may be in close physical contact with 1,000 people a day.

    Given the virus is currently doubling every six days, that means that it might mean that one to three of the six thousand people you have physical contact with over that period gets it.

    Now, imagine you cut your physical contact down to 100 people a day. That means that instead of one to three people, it's 0.1 to 0.3 people that you pass it onto to. So long as everyone does this, then the number of new cases slows dramatically.
    This is the NHS on self-isolation

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isolation-advice/

    It is about complete self isolation.

    I obviously take your sensible point, but the NHS advice is as I described it.

    "Do not invite visitors to your home or allow visitors to enter, do not go to work, school or public areas, do not use public transport like buses, trains, tubes or taxis, do not share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels, bedding or other items with other people in your home."

    It would be hard for someone returning from vacation to do that without some help.
    I tend to the view that NHS guidelines are set deliberately in the knowledge that most people won't follow them perfectly but that it'll end up being good enough the vast majority of the time.
    No they don't build in some sort of buffer to accommodate for non-adherence.

    Yes self isolation is going to be hard that's why it would be sensible to stock up on essentials for a few weeks/months.
  • Disgraceful, Manchester United should be relegated two divisions for this.

    Police are investigating claims of a racially-aggravated assault at Manchester United’s football stadium, after a 19-year-old hospitality worker said he was attacked by security guards and left with a fractured eye socket as he tried to get to work at the ground.

    Greater Manchester police confirmed on Tuesday that they were looking into a report of a public order offence and assault by two men at Old Trafford on 27 February.

    The community interest company Kids of Colour said the alleged victim had been called “a slave” before being slammed against a wall and hit in the stomach by guards who disputed that he worked at the stadium.

    Controlled Solutions Group (CSG), which is contracted to run security operations for Manchester United, has strenuously denied the allegations against its employees.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/10/old-trafford-guards-accused-of-racist-attack-on-19-year-old-worker
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218

    rcs1000 said:

    sarissa said:

    Sandpit said:

    What was the price of a barrel of oil in September 2014?

    Around $100
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
    Irrelevant as N sea income had been destroyed by Osborne in his 2011 Budget tax grab.
    https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/gallery/publications/statistics-publication/2018/08/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2017-18/00539518.gif
    I'm sorry, but that's not true.

    Scotland's oil industry is not just about North Sea barrels in British territorial waters.
    Although after the last couple of days you may well find that the whole Scottish oil industry is back on its knees again.

    The last downturn cost 120,000 jobs in the UK Oil Industry and very few of those came back. As of today we are looking at further large scale cuts very quickly.
    Yes, I completely agree. If the current oil price doesn't bounce back it'll be horrendous.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    That is great news about America lifting the ban on British beef! Haggis next...

    Only twenty years after the EU lifted its ban. Advantages of EU membership #27873.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited March 2020
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is government subsidies for Tory voters - RBS (incl Natwest) is still majority govt owned and the policies make no commercial sense. Free market? Not when it comes to asset owners and renters, the poor have to subsidise the rich.
    This seems to be more exploitative than altruistic. My mortgage has clauses in it that allow for payment holidays, deferred payments, and hardship applications. All they are doing is linking them to Coronavirus to get some free advertising.

    Moreover, since it’s a time consuming and expensive process to repossess a house, it is unlikely that they would want to go after millions of defaulters at once.

    A more practical and valuable way forward would be measures to protect tenants - say, a grace period if the area goes into lockdown, or a minimum rental payment for a period, or an undertaking that minimum mortgage costs will not be claimable (although why anyone would have a mortgage on a BTL) is beyond my comprehension, frankly). That would certainly ease an awful lot of fears.
    I wonder why you think people would not have a mortgage on a BTL, if they moved and were unable to sell old house and so rented it out they are likely to still have a mortgage, it is more likely the rule rather than the exception , not many are gifted a property they can rent out.
    Well, they shouldn’t do without their bank’s permission.

    But my comment was more because the costs don’t work under current tax rules. As far as I can judge, the only feasible way to have mortgages on BTL is if you go into it in a big way and form a proper company to manage it. But I would be surprised if that was the situation of most people with BTL.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We need some statisticians here to model the probability this is just chance with MoE with a limited dataset rather than a shit hot healthcare system.
    Isn't a consequence of their infected being mostly young people?
    Almost certainly.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited March 2020
    FF43 said:

    That is great news about America lifting the ban on British beef! Haggis next...

    Only twenty years after the EU lifted its ban. Advantages of EU membership #27873.
    14 years after France, a country that now admits it had 305,000 cases of BSE, finally did - for which illegal ban it has never paid any fine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    Disgraceful, Manchester United should be relegated two divisions for this.

    Police are investigating claims of a racially-aggravated assault at Manchester United’s football stadium, after a 19-year-old hospitality worker said he was attacked by security guards and left with a fractured eye socket as he tried to get to work at the ground.

    Greater Manchester police confirmed on Tuesday that they were looking into a report of a public order offence and assault by two men at Old Trafford on 27 February.

    The community interest company Kids of Colour said the alleged victim had been called “a slave” before being slammed against a wall and hit in the stomach by guards who disputed that he worked at the stadium.

    Controlled Solutions Group (CSG), which is contracted to run security operations for Manchester United, has strenuously denied the allegations against its employees.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/10/old-trafford-guards-accused-of-racist-attack-on-19-year-old-worker

    It is disgraceful, although of course it is the individuals involved who should take the rap, not the club.

    Still, I guess you need to have something to take your mind of the impending abandonment of this year's Premier League competition :wink:
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited March 2020

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
  • I really am stepping onto a plague island when I go to Belfast in a few days.

    https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1237444830252466177
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    stodge said:

    @Sandpit took the trouble to respond on the previous thread to my comments on the state of the LDs.

    He said "the party needs to be unashamedly liberal - backing freedom of speech and assembly".

    Okay, apart from the notion there's a bit more to liberalism than that, I'm interested in this notion that being liberal means supporting freedom of speech.

    Historically, those who campaigned for freedom of speech were campaigning for opportunity and plurality of speech, allowing different voices to be heard which weren't being heard in a society and political culture which concentrated power and the opportunity to voice opinion in very few hands.

    Freedom of Speech went hand in hand with plural democracy in which all voices could be heard equally and everyone had the opportunity to voice their opinion and for that opinion to be heard and acknowledged.

    That has evolved with the coming of the Internet and other mass forums of opinion - true, too many voices are still not heard and usually for the age old reason of poverty and lack of opportunity but for many freedom of speech exists inasmuch as the keyboard and the Web provide the conduit to opinion.

    What then should freedom of speech mean to the liberal today? The right to offend, the right to be offended, the right to tolerate any and all voices or the right to be intolerant of that which is offensive or offends?

    For too long, liberals have been forced to cower behind the mantra of "I don't agree with what you say but I'll defend your right to say it" which has empowered the provocateurs and the trolls. Yet move or argue against them and the litany of "freedom of speech" is thrown back. At the same time, too many voices remain unheard. There's a dilemma in all of that - to restrict speech to defined boundaries or to empower the troll and the provocateur.

    The law, by virtue of libel, slander and hate crime provision, supposedly provides some boundaries but does it?

    For me the principles are relatively simple, of course there will be borderline issues.

    We should have the right to free speech that does not incite violence, involve libel slander or limited copyright restrictions.

    That definitely includes the right to offend.

    It does not give the speaker the right to avoid any social consequences of their views being spoken. The speaker must be protected by the state from violent threats and acts against them because of their free speech but not protection from being mocked or shunned for their views.
    The Toby Young school thinks freedom of speech includes the right that others shouldn't be offended by it. Along with accepting anyone who offers a platform, including this website, gets to say who goes onto that platform, the right to free speech is quite specific: that governments should not decide on what people say.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Germany still doing a relatively good job of keeping the virus at bay. 1,317 cases and 2 deaths. The Netherlands, by contrast, has 4 deaths from 382 cases.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    We need some statisticians here to model the probability this is just chance with MoE with a limited dataset rather than a shit hot healthcare system.
    Isn't a consequence of their infected being mostly young people?
    I don’t know.

    I haven’t seen the breakdown of the numbers.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    eadric said:
    That misses off South Korea and Singapore. Both of which have seen dramatic flattenings of their curves.
    I'd argue that Singapore 'had' flattened off their curve, it's rising again: https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

    Which in a way is a very important lesson for the world, given how interconnected we are, a couple of countries failing will result in countries that had it under control falling again.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Useless fact: I spotted Sadiq Khan in London Bridge tube station today at about 3pm. He was doing TV interviews.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    A lot of Italians still shop day to day.
  • eadric said:

    Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful

    I think the Greeks are shooting at migrants to protect Greece
    And no condemnation from the EU
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Just seen this on the BBC:

    The WHO has published a document on mental health and dealing with stress during the outbreak.

    Some of their recommendations include:

    Avoid watching, reading or listening to news that could cause you to feel anxious or distressed.
    Seek information mainly to take practical steps to prepare your plans and protect yourself and loved ones.
    Seek information updates at specific times during the day once or twice. The sudden and near-constant stream of news reports about an outbreak can cause anyone to feel worried.

    Perhaps I need to get away from PB...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    When it gets bad in the UK those that have steadily bought the extra pack of things here and there will be fine. I've got a decent box of food, 10 bottles of wine, 20 pints, and 3L of spirits and mixers. Oh, and two nice bottle of Champagne, one for my birthday in April, and a second for when it's mostly over.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    IanB2 said:

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    A lot of Italians still shop day to day.
    Probably another cultural reason why they may struggle.
  • nichomar said:

    Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful

    No it’s not it is just showing that we weren’t in a superstate that’s controlled our lives, countries are free to make their own Decisions. What on earth did you expect the EU to do in the current circumstances?
    They claim ever closer union and it has been shown that it is a sham
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Chameleon said:

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    When it gets bad in the UK those that have steadily bought the extra pack of things here and there will be fine. I've got a decent box of food, 10 bottles of wine, 20 pints, and 3L of spirits and mixers. Oh, and two nice bottle of Champagne, one for my birthday in April, and a second for when it's mostly over.
    Sounds like you are well stocked. I bought a new freezer, a bread machine and about £500 of food about three weeks ago. My elderly parents did the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    HYUFD said:
    This is government subsidies for Tory voters - RBS (incl Natwest) is still majority govt owned and the policies make no commercial sense. Free market? Not when it comes to asset owners and renters, the poor have to subsidise the rich.
    Most people still have mortgages rather than rent, the wealthiest are owner occupiers not with mortgages.

    Small businesses are also to be helped by Lloyds with funds during the coronavirus outbreak as self isolation is likely to rise
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    When it gets bad in the UK those that have steadily bought the extra pack of things here and there will be fine. I've got a decent box of food, 10 bottles of wine, 20 pints, and 3L of spirits and mixers. Oh, and two nice bottle of Champagne, one for my birthday in April, and a second for when it's mostly over.
    Sounds like you are well stocked. I bought a new freezer, a bread machine and about £500 of food about three weeks ago. My elderly parents did the same.
    Very nice, good to hear it. Buying stuff a few weeks back was definitely a wise move, reduces the strain on the supply chain. Annoyingly our main fridge freezer broke, which combined with two people in the house working in the same hospital where the doctor got infected is slightly sub-optimal!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    edited March 2020
    Coronavirus ‘worse than a bomb’ on Italy, says doctor coordinating response. Worrying saying many younger people appearing now.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mrPHO-nkVE
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    eadric said:

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    If Italian hospitals are that bad now, what are they going to be like in two weeks, if the growth continues as is?
    Well, for starters, that would prove lockdown doesn’t work and we could all stop worrying about the need to self isolate.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    The first containment zone announced in the US, for a New York suburb.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    Any decent recipes for cooking bog roll?
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    When it gets bad in the UK those that have steadily bought the extra pack of things here and there will be fine. I've got a decent box of food, 10 bottles of wine, 20 pints, and 3L of spirits and mixers. Oh, and two nice bottle of Champagne, one for my birthday in April, and a second for when it's mostly over.
    Sounds like you are well stocked. I bought a new freezer, a bread machine and about £500 of food about three weeks ago. My elderly parents did the same.
    Very nice, good to hear it. Buying stuff a few weeks back was definitely a wise move, reduces the strain on the supply chain. Annoyingly our main fridge freezer broke, which combined with two people in the house working in the same hospital where the doctor got infected is slightly sub-optimal!
    Still time to get more if necessary. Don't delay though.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    Covid 19 has demonstrated the impotence of the EU for all to see

    When a country comes under an existential threat, the politicians of that country will act in that country's interest in defiance of anything the EU may demand

    Furthermore, the countries are more nimble than a juggernaut like the EU

    I know I will get EU supporters having a pop at me but it isthere for all to see.

    The Greeks opening fire on migrants on behalf of the EU to protect it's borders is shameful

    No it’s not it is just showing that we weren’t in a superstate that’s controlled our lives, countries are free to make their own Decisions. What on earth did you expect the EU to do in the current circumstances?
    They claim ever closer union and it has been shown that it is a sham
    You have become a strange being looking for fault where it doesn’t exist attempting to justify your decision to vote Tory. The EU was never set up to manage this situation, it can’t and just shows the lies that people spread about it. As it happens every European country have, at different points, taken the same decisions as each other. There is no difference in what happens in country a or b. Even testing rates are irrelevant if you are not testing the right people. What would you have had the EU do at the outset of this crisis? Rather than taking the daily mail view on life.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123

    Do not go en masse to stock up in supermarkets: it is the worst thing because you concentrate and the risk of contacts with infected people who do not know they are higher. You can go there as you usually do.'

    Despite his warning, many Italians have done exactly that today with long queues forming outside supermarkets.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8095835/Overwhelmed-Italian-hospitals-running-200-cent-capacity.html

    Apparently there has also been big queues for getting refunded for ski passes in the affected areas....shakes head.

    Slightly difficult if you need food to eat.

    Ideally the government in Italy would have been advising them to stock up in preparation over the last few weeks.

    Perhaps those hoarding bog rolls right now in this country, against government advice, are not so daft after all?
    Any decent recipes for cooking bog roll?
    Haha. I cook it in a similar way you would spinach.
This discussion has been closed.