politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s handling of the spread of coronavirus is costing him d

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

It really isn't if they end up infecting each other in the playground and then bring the virus home to their families. From what we know they may well do so even if they are asymptomatic themselves.

Not to mention the rather more obvious case of universities...

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

It seems to me that there’s some groundwork to lay first, and decisions to be made about what formal notifications are made to allow things like insurance pay-outs. I read yesterday’s announcement as “we think we can safely take two more days to cover all the bases”, with something big pencilled in for Wednesday. No sense announcing something you’re not ready to back up with actions.

eristdoof said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

It is not as clear cut as you make out. Most school children are not at school for 24 hours a day, and if the grandparents live nearby, the children will meet their grandparents regularly anyway. The commuting aspect of day time at school and night time with the family spreads the virus more quickly than day and night with the family.

Your point is valid, but is not the only factor in the argument.

Which doesn't even consider the parents and teachers...

alex_ said:

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

US a media lost the plot a long time ago, and the UK media are going down the same path.

Most media types are too young to remember a proper pandemic, and they haven’t realised the need to act responsibly and convey the message - which is easier in the UK, as the scientists and politicians are saying exactly the same things.

My personal annoyance is how they breathlessly seek out and report on (usually retired) “experts” criticising “the Government’s” approach. Implying that the Govt is just Boris and co sitting in a room making it up, fight to keep “the experts” out of the process.

It’s something that’s fine during eg. an election but completely inappropriate in current situation.

They’ve spent the last five years being the opposition to the government, and are totally failing to understand that their role is now to support them wholeheartedly through a crisis.

GideonWise said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

At this stage very few, if any, are infected.
That is precisely the point.

If you delay such measures until the escalating number of cases make it inevitable, then what you say applies many times over. A concerted effort to stop this thing in its tracks now - given that government itself seems to accept such escalation is inevitable - would be every bit as, almost certainly more effective.

And the Easter holiday starts shortly, so a two week break starting next week would become a four week break.

There are some faulty baseline assumptions, namely that once transmission is frequent in Western Europe it must be an epidemic here. That's because they think the social lock down would be too great to forever keep it out.

I think that's wrong because as Italy shows, countries where this has spiked are locking down anyway. Therefore the social harm is already there. Travel disruption, business disruption is baked in. So we might as well get in early and reap some of the benefits because the costs are already there.

Complex decision models might mask some of these structural assumptions if they deviate markedly from what was initially expected; they can't see the wood for the trees.

Pretty well where I started from.
I'm quite willing to give government the benefit of the doubt, but when their measures seem to contradict the advice and statistics they publicly acknowledge, comment is in order.

The handshake thing, though a minor matter, was symptomatic.

DavidL said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

It really isn't if they end up infecting each other in the playground and then bring the virus home to their families. From what we know they may well do so even if they are asymptomatic themselves.

They could also learn about Coronavirus, learn about handwashing, make hand sanitiser (seems like quite an easy school friendly make to me), maybe even make masks in DT. There's a lot of good, beneficial stuff kids could cover in school, before holidays come anyway.

My sort of Header. If you were to sit down and design something to expose and eject Trump you would probably come up with a deep and complex public health crisis where good organization and the clear communication of facts and scientific data is crucial. Said crisis to be accompanied by a stock market crash and a recession hitting jobs and living standards. There will still (sadly) be many millions of fools and deplorables who will vote for him in November but there will surely not be enough of them.

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Useful to have that 2000 year old matter sorted out so swiftly, elegantly and finally. A couple of billion people can breath a sigh of relief and move on.

Will you tell the A of C and the Pope or shall I?

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237154235952881664?s=20

North Dakota is irrelevant to the November result. Trump had a 35% majority in 2016.

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too

The Catholic Church here has already sent out guidance about the hygiene steps to be taken before and during Mass and other ways of limiting contact. If you are very ill or dying it looks as if your priest may not visit you at home but provide spiritual care over the phone. The last rites for the Last Rites.

If someone close to me were dying - and I hope to God I am not put in this position - I think I would take the risk and stay with them to the end. The thought of someone I love dying alone uncomforted is horrific.

algarkirk said:

Proportionality observation: Malaria kills 400,000 people, including many children, each year. Road deaths run at over 1 million each year. Are we losing perspective?

Yes, probably. For example:

https://www.masslive.com/news/2020/03/cdc-flu-has-killed-136-children-so-far-this-season.html

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237154235952881664?s=20

North Dakota is irrelevant to the November result. Trump had a 35% majority in 2016.

Michigan isn't though

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237216654242635777?s=20

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

algarkirk said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.

Some of these may be cargo-only flights, or flying empty thanks to EU rules on slot allocations (use it or lose it basis). There could also be foreigners evacuating Italy on board, who are happy to be quarantined at their destination.

Quite a few are Easyjet and Ryanair. Of course they may not be very full but the time to treat such arrivals with mandatory confinement for 14 days has surely arrived.

Kay Burley interviewing a holiday maker in Rome who is trying to get a flight home failed to tell her she would face 14 day self isolation on landing back in UK

Maybe Burley did not want to upset her but she does not hold back with others

Mind you her morning programme is poor

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

I get the sense that there are reasons to delay that have not been shared.

There are obvious reasons. Tell everyone to wear a face masks and face masks will be gone like a shot. This way, stocks can be replenished, people can find creative ways of their own, etc. Same with isolation, food buying etc. People should also remember that we are getting better and better treatments, and we are nearing a cure. We shouldn't depend on that but we should be wary of economic consequences that will just as surely result in deaths for the vulnerable.

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too, though they have issued guidance that those with coughs or sneezes should not drink from the main communion cup

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8003965/Church-England-issues-coronavirus-warning-congregations.html

Not just Anglicans but most Protestants. In many Catholic churches the congregation does not get any wine, so you could easily argue that protestants have twice the chance to get infected, and much more if a chalice of wine is shared.

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too, though they have issued guidance that those with coughs or sneezes should not drink from the main communion cup

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8003965/Church-England-issues-coronavirus-warning-congregations.html

Not just Anglicans but most Protestants. In many Catholic churches the congregation does not get any wine, so you could easily argue that protestants have twice the chance to get infected, and much more if a chalice of wine is shared.

Do Evangelical Protestants have communion?

YBarddCwsc said:

Nigelb said:

eristdoof said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

It is not as clear cut as you make out. Most school children are not at school for 24 hours a day, and if the grandparents live nearby, the children will meet their grandparents regularly anyway. The commuting aspect of day time at school and night time with the family spreads the virus more quickly than day and night with the family.

Your point is valid, but is not the only factor in the argument.

Which doesn't even consider the parents and teachers...

Yes, but children who are not at school are simply not going to sit in a darkened room with Eadric washing their hands every 30 minutes with industrial strength cleaner.

If children & teenagers are not at school, then they will be doing something else, probably gathering together with friends and heading into town and going to cinemas, etc.

I don't think it is quite as clear as you suggest.

It's not clearcut.
I started from the point that government clearly already have plans in place for some manner of restrictions on social gathering (which would include things like religious services, sports events, cinemas etc).
Given they appear to believe it inevitable, then considering introducing them sooner rather than later would be likely more effective.

The small things I said were entirely clearcut were (for example) advice for anyone with a respiratory tract infection to self-isolate.
Things like that would not be costly at all in relation to the benefit.

HYUFD said:

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237154235952881664?s=20

North Dakota is irrelevant to the November result. Trump had a 35% majority in 2016.

Michigan isn't though

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237216654242635777?s=20

I agree.

I do though have a higher skepticism of polls where one candidate is as good as certain and the other is a hypothetical. A Sanders fan who is aked the Biden vs Trump question is much less likely to say "Biden" now than in October when Trump's opponent is known.

Anabobazina said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

I get the sense that there are reasons to delay that have not been shared.

There are obvious reasons. Tell everyone to wear a face masks and face masks will be gone like a shot. This way, stocks can be replenished, people can find creative ways of their own, etc. Same with isolation, food buying etc. People should also remember that we are getting better and better treatments, and we are nearing a cure. We shouldn't depend on that but we should be wary of economic consequences that will just as surely result in deaths for the vulnerable.

We are ‘nearing a cure’?

Are we?

Do you have any evidence for that claim, or just a hunch?

Arstechnica's excellent guide to the virus:


What about treatments and vaccines?
Since the epidemic began in January, researchers have rushed to start clinical trials and begun developing vaccine candidates. There are now dozens of vaccine efforts underway.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health has partnered with biotechnology company Moderna to test a vaccine candidate based on messenger RNA that will cause an individual's cells to produce a viral protein without an infection. An early clinical trial in people is expected to start in the coming weeks. If it is successful, a usable vaccine will still take at least a year and a half, according to NIAD’s director, Dr. Fauci—and that is a very optimistic estimate.

Meanwhile, researchers and biotech companies are also working on treatments for COVID-19.

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237154235952881664?s=20

North Dakota is irrelevant to the November result. Trump had a 35% majority in 2016.

Michigan isn't though

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1237216654242635777?s=20

I agree.

I do though have a higher skepticism of polls where one candidate is as good as certain and the other is a hypothetical. A Sanders fan who is aked the Biden vs Trump question is much less likely to say "Biden" now than in October when Trump's opponent is known.

And it's out of kilter with other Michigan polling:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

Luckyguy1983 said:

Anabobazina said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Jonathan said:

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

I get the sense that there are reasons to delay that have not been shared.

There are obvious reasons. Tell everyone to wear a face masks and face masks will be gone like a shot. This way, stocks can be replenished, people can find creative ways of their own, etc. Same with isolation, food buying etc. People should also remember that we are getting better and better treatments, and we are nearing a cure. We shouldn't depend on that but we should be wary of economic consequences that will just as surely result in deaths for the vulnerable.

We are ‘nearing a cure’?

Are we?

Do you have any evidence for that claim, or just a hunch?

Should have said getting nearer the time when we will have a cure.

My robot doing all my household chores is nodding in agreement.

https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1237280212074803200?s=20

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Dura_Ace said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Paristonda said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.

Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.

Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.

If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.

If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.

I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.

which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy

No they aren't, unless you're a bigot. I'm not a Muslim, but if I were attending a meeting of Muslims, I'd be more than happy to close my eyes with them, pray to my God or no God, and be happy and grateful for their well-wishes. In Syria, the Muslim president attends the Orthodox Church at Easter. That's what being tolerant is about.

I am not a bigot, but favour separation of state and religion.
I also don't think the president of Syria is a model to follow in any way whatsoever.

IshmaelZ said:

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

Against stupidity, the gods themselves contend in vain. The "hurr hurr hurr, panicking bedwetters buying loorolls" mentality is here to stay until we start running out of ICU beds in a few weeks, when it will vanish like snow in summer. Why not wait until that huge resistance has evaporated rather than waste energy contending with it, may be the thinking.

I think you're right, that's what it is. But politicians sometimes need to lead rather than wait for people to panic first. I'm not being especially critical of Johnson - I see it's a delicate balance. But I think it's tipped to more action being needed now.

Cyclefree said:

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too

The Catholic Church here has already sent out guidance about the hygiene steps to be taken before and during Mass and other ways of limiting contact. If you are very ill or dying it looks as if your priest may not visit you at home but provide spiritual care over the phone. The last rites for the Last Rites.

If someone close to me were dying - and I hope to God I am not put in this position - I think I would take the risk and stay with them to the end. The thought of someone I love dying alone uncomforted is horrific.

In sickness and in health....

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.

I am 76, have diabetes and copd and therefore in the high risk category

My wife and I have decided to remain at home as much as possible and when we do go into town we wash our hands on returning and of course keep a distance from people

I am not especially worried but some of the panic obsessed reactions just annoy me and in particular some who preach a death cult

I thought that you were only 21?

It seems to me that you and your wife are being sensible and proportionate. It is time that the government encouraged others to do the same. @edmundintokyo's contributions were really interesting overnight. So much can be done with persuasion and good advice.

19 actually.

I am going to cancel our trip to our son's in Vancouver in May but am waiting to see if the government's advise makes it possible, due to my age and risk factor, to claim cancellation from my travel insurance

Can't wait until you stop being this stroppy teenager.....

alex_ said:

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

US a media lost the plot a long time ago, and the UK media are going down the same path.

Most media types are too young to remember a proper pandemic, and they haven’t realised the need to act responsibly and convey the message - which is easier in the UK, as the scientists and politicians are saying exactly the same things.

My personal annoyance is how they breathlessly seek out and report on (usually retired) “experts” criticising “the Government’s” approach. Implying that the Govt is just Boris and co sitting in a room making it up, fight to keep “the experts” out of the process.

It’s something that’s fine during eg. an election but completely inappropriate in current situation.

The media are to some extent a branch of the entertainment business, and their motto is "simplify, then exaggerate" - it sells and always has. To be fair, I don't think the Opposition (any of the parties) have been exploiting it - they're all preoccupied with their own stuff and basically letting the Government get on with it. Not great, frankly, but better than knee-jerk hysteria.

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too

The Catholic Church here has already sent out guidance about the hygiene steps to be taken before and during Mass and other ways of limiting contact. If you are very ill or dying it looks as if your priest may not visit you at home but provide spiritual care over the phone. The last rites for the Last Rites.

If someone close to me were dying - and I hope to God I am not put in this position - I think I would take the risk and stay with them to the end. The thought of someone I love dying alone uncomforted is horrific.

In sickness and in health....

As an altar boy in my youth I always thought communion, sharing the drinking vessel, was unhygienic. IIRC the priest's view was a) it was holy, so therefore safe, and b) it was alcohol, so therefore safe.
Not sure how much alcohol is in altar wine.

NickPalmer said:

alex_ said:

Sandpit said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

US a media lost the plot a long time ago, and the UK media are going down the same path.

Most media types are too young to remember a proper pandemic, and they haven’t realised the need to act responsibly and convey the message - which is easier in the UK, as the scientists and politicians are saying exactly the same things.

My personal annoyance is how they breathlessly seek out and report on (usually retired) “experts” criticising “the Government’s” approach. Implying that the Govt is just Boris and co sitting in a room making it up, fight to keep “the experts” out of the process.

It’s something that’s fine during eg. an election but completely inappropriate in current situation.

To be fair, I don't think the Opposition (any of the parties) have been exploiting it

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell accused the government of offering only "vague statements" in response to the outbreak, saying it needed to guarantee sick pay for all workers and address issues such as a shortage of 100,000 NHS staff.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51796072

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.

I am 76, have diabetes and copd and therefore in the high risk category

My wife and I have decided to remain at home as much as possible and when we do go into town we wash our hands on returning and of course keep a distance from people

I am not especially worried but some of the panic obsessed reactions just annoy me and in particular some who preach a death cult

I thought that you were only 21?

It seems to me that you and your wife are being sensible and proportionate. It is time that the government encouraged others to do the same. @edmundintokyo's contributions were really interesting overnight. So much can be done with persuasion and good advice.

19 actually.

I am going to cancel our trip to our son's in Vancouver in May but am waiting to see if the government's advise makes it possible, due to my age and risk factor, to claim cancellation from my travel insurance

If you don't mind me asking if you have young grandchildren/great grandchildren would you refuse to see them in the coming months or are you still planning on seeing them?

If you don't mind me asking if schools were closed and you were asked to watch them while their parents went to work would you refuse?

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.

I am 76, have diabetes and copd and therefore in the high risk category

My wife and I have decided to remain at home as much as possible and when we do go into town we wash our hands on returning and of course keep a distance from people

I am not especially worried but some of the panic obsessed reactions just annoy me and in particular some who preach a death cult

As often happens on matters like this, I agree with Mr G. I'm 80+, have (it was diagnosed 75 or so years ago ) asthma, although, touch wood etc, I've never been hospitalised with it. My wife also has mild asthma, although in her case diagnosis was very much more recent.

We are not especially worried; we go out and about, although I've just cried off from what is often a very crowded meeting in quite a small room. However, we're off to the cinema this afternoon; not usually very full, Sadly both our local football teams are away this weekend, so I won't be able to go.
However, I'm going to a couple small U3a gatherings later in the week, where I shall have the opportunity to wash my hands after the meetings. And I won't be touching anyone!

Maybe we are demonstrating age brings wisdom and lots more common sense

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Dura_Ace said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Paristonda said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.

Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.

Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.

If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.

If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.

I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.

which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy

No they aren't, unless you're a bigot. I'm not a Muslim, but if I were attending a meeting of Muslims, I'd be more than happy to close my eyes with them, pray to my God or no God, and be happy and grateful for their well-wishes. In Syria, the Muslim president attends the Orthodox Church at Easter. That's what being tolerant is about.

I am not a bigot, but favour separation of state and religion.
I also don't think the president of Syria is a model to follow in any way whatsoever.

Well then I'm afraid your attitude lacks sense. The President of Syria probably washes his hands a lot too - are you against that?

On religion, 'banning' prayer, which is essentially what you're proposing, is exactly the same behaviour as enforcing strict Christian observance in the past. It is a religious attitude. It is forcing people to do it your way.

I don't propose banning prayer. I'm quite content to take the piss out of anyone who shares a photo of them praying for a solution.

If someone shared a photo of them looking at a horoscope for a solution to this would you take the piss out of them?

eristdoof said:

algarkirk said:

Proportionality observation: Malaria kills 400,000 people, including many children, each year. Road deaths run at over 1 million each year. Are we losing perspective?

Please read this twitter thread
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

I am reading it, alongside airlines' offers of cheap flights to Milan, still arriving and departing every few minutes.

Time_to_Leave said:

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

It seems to me that there’s some groundwork to lay first, and decisions to be made about what formal notifications are made to allow things like insurance pay-outs. I read yesterday’s announcement as “we think we can safely take two more days to cover all the bases”, with something big pencilled in for Wednesday. No sense announcing something you’re not ready to back up with actions.

Equally if you think people will only self-isolate for say 2 weeks you have to get the timing right so that when people

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.

I am 76, have diabetes and copd and therefore in the high risk category

My wife and I have decided to remain at home as much as possible and when we do go into town we wash our hands on returning and of course keep a distance from people

I am not especially worried but some of the panic obsessed reactions just annoy me and in particular some who preach a death cult

I thought that you were only 21?

It seems to me that you and your wife are being sensible and proportionate. It is time that the government encouraged others to do the same. @edmundintokyo's contributions were really interesting overnight. So much can be done with persuasion and good advice.

19 actually.

I am going to cancel our trip to our son's in Vancouver in May but am waiting to see if the government's advise makes it possible, due to my age and risk factor, to claim cancellation from my travel insurance

Can you change the dates to later in the way - I know KLM are now offering rebooking without any rebooking fee (just the difference in flight prices)

Philip_Thompson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Dura_Ace said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Paristonda said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.

Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.

Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.

If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.

If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.

I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.

which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy

No they aren't, unless you're a bigot. I'm not a Muslim, but if I were attending a meeting of Muslims, I'd be more than happy to close my eyes with them, pray to my God or no God, and be happy and grateful for their well-wishes. In Syria, the Muslim president attends the Orthodox Church at Easter. That's what being tolerant is about.

I am not a bigot, but favour separation of state and religion.
I also don't think the president of Syria is a model to follow in any way whatsoever.

Well then I'm afraid your attitude lacks sense. The President of Syria probably washes his hands a lot too - are you against that?

On religion, 'banning' prayer, which is essentially what you're proposing, is exactly the same behaviour as enforcing strict Christian observance in the past. It is a religious attitude. It is forcing people to do it your way.

I don't propose banning prayer. I'm quite content to take the piss out of anyone who shares a photo of them praying for a solution.

If someone shared a photo of them looking at a horoscope for a solution to this would you take the piss out of them?

No.

FF43 said:

algarkirk said:

Proportionality observation: Malaria kills 400,000 people, including many children, each year. Road deaths run at over 1 million each year. Are we losing perspective?

The question is whether the situation in Italy now and Hubei before is one that we think acceptable to "take on the chin", as Johnson put it. If it isn't acceptable we need to take effective preventative measures.

I agree, but still wonder if we are losing perspective.

YBarddCwsc said:

Nigelb said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Nigelb said:

eristdoof said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

It is not as clear cut as you make out. Most school children are not at school for 24 hours a day, and if the grandparents live nearby, the children will meet their grandparents regularly anyway. The commuting aspect of day time at school and night time with the family spreads the virus more quickly than day and night with the family.

Your point is valid, but is not the only factor in the argument.

Which doesn't even consider the parents and teachers...

Yes, but children who are not at school are simply not going to sit in a darkened room with Eadric washing their hands every 30 minutes with industrial strength cleaner.

If children & teenagers are not at school, then they will be doing something else, probably gathering together with friends and heading into town and going to cinemas, etc.

I don't think it is quite as clear as you suggest.

It's not clearcut.
I started from the point that government clearly already have plans in place for some manner of restrictions on social gathering (which would include things like religious services, sports events, cinemas etc).
Given they appear to believe it inevitable, then considering introducing them sooner rather than later would be likely more effective.

Everyone should be behaving responsibly. If you come back from Italy, it is your responsibility to self-isolate.

I don't think it does follow that introducing restrictions sooner rather than later is likely to be more effective. It may be the case, but it is not obvious.

If children/teenagers (who can afford to be very blase about this disease) are not at school, then they are doing something else -- which may be more effective in spreading the virus.

With all due respect, the Chief Scientific Officer will have access to much better data, simulations, statistics and epidemiology experts than you. I know some of them & I trust them.

Absolutely.

Besides we know which European country chose [against our scientific advice] to close schools prematurely and how badly they're now suffering. This is not a magic bullet and can be very counter-productive which is what the evidence is showing in Italy.

Philip_Thompson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.

I am 76, have diabetes and copd and therefore in the high risk category

My wife and I have decided to remain at home as much as possible and when we do go into town we wash our hands on returning and of course keep a distance from people

I am not especially worried but some of the panic obsessed reactions just annoy me and in particular some who preach a death cult

I thought that you were only 21?

It seems to me that you and your wife are being sensible and proportionate. It is time that the government encouraged others to do the same. @edmundintokyo's contributions were really interesting overnight. So much can be done with persuasion and good advice.

19 actually.

I am going to cancel our trip to our son's in Vancouver in May but am waiting to see if the government's advise makes it possible, due to my age and risk factor, to claim cancellation from my travel insurance

If you don't mind me asking if you have young grandchildren/great grandchildren would you refuse to see them in the coming months or are you still planning on seeing them?

If you don't mind me asking if schools were closed and you were asked to watch them while their parents went to work would you refuse?

Yesterday we picked up two of our young grandchildren from school and I cooked them their tea until their father picked them up at 6.00pm. We do this every monday in term time. We have no plans whatsover to stop seeing our grandchildren

If schools closed we would look after them as much as we could bearing in mind our ages

On a more tentatively hopeful note, the number of cases in the 11 towns originally quarantined in Italy is apparently starting to finally come down. There's obviously still much further to go in dealing with all this, however.

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too

The Catholic Church here has already sent out guidance about the hygiene steps to be taken before and during Mass and other ways of limiting contact. If you are very ill or dying it looks as if your priest may not visit you at home but provide spiritual care over the phone. The last rites for the Last Rites.

If someone close to me were dying - and I hope to God I am not put in this position - I think I would take the risk and stay with them to the end. The thought of someone I love dying alone uncomforted is horrific.

In sickness and in health....

As an altar boy in my youth I always thought communion, sharing the drinking vessel, was unhygienic. IIRC the priest's view was a) it was holy, so therefore safe, and b) it was alcohol, so therefore safe.
Not sure how much alcohol is in altar wine.

The cup is at least wiped after each user

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

GideonWise said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

As a general point, I can understand the government’s reluctance to rush into shutting everything down immediately.
But their refusal to take even low cost measures right now is just stupid.

Such as? They are taking low cost and even high cost measures right now. They're just not hyperventilating panicking headless chickens.

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...

These are not costly measures, or hyperventilating.

One might go on to note that when the Chief Medical Officer says that thousands of cases are almost inevitable, advancing plans for suspending large public events - and considering shutting schools next week until after Easter - would be sensible.

Waste of time discussing science and evidence with appartchiks.

I disagree. Bad arguments should be confronted.

I 100% agree. Which is why I agree with scientists and not the deluded who think closing schools is evidence based. Hint: It's not!

And I note you didn't even address the first two points I made.
Which were direct replies to your original question.

You mean these?

Such as advising everyone with a respiratory infection to self isolate....
Ministers don't seem to have noticed the medical reports from Germany of the numerous confirmed Covid cases which originally presented as upper respiratory tract infections.
They are asking people with coronavirus symptoms to self-isolate and use 111 already. Not asking those with the common cold to do so at the moment for reasons the scientists explained in the press conference yesterday.

Such as advising ALL travellers from Italy to self-isolate for a fortnight...
That is the government's advice already. "Travellers should self-isolate, even if asymptomatic": https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas-with-implications-for-returning-travellers-or-visitors-arriving-in-the-uk

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1237309470256046081?s=20

Philip_Thompson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Dura_Ace said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Paristonda said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.

Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.

Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.

If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.

If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.

I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.

which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy

No they aren't, unless you're a bigot. I'm not a Muslim, but if I were attending a meeting of Muslims, I'd be more than happy to close my eyes with them, pray to my God or no God, and be happy and grateful for their well-wishes. In Syria, the Muslim president attends the Orthodox Church at Easter. That's what being tolerant is about.

I am not a bigot, but favour separation of state and religion.
I also don't think the president of Syria is a model to follow in any way whatsoever.

Well then I'm afraid your attitude lacks sense. The President of Syria probably washes his hands a lot too - are you against that?

On religion, 'banning' prayer, which is essentially what you're proposing, is exactly the same behaviour as enforcing strict Christian observance in the past. It is a religious attitude. It is forcing people to do it your way.

I don't propose banning prayer. I'm quite content to take the piss out of anyone who shares a photo of them praying for a solution.

If someone shared a photo of them looking at a horoscope for a solution to this would you take the piss out of them?

No.

I don't believe you. I would.

I wouldn't take the piss out of anyone sincerely looking for a beneficial outcome.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

kamski said:

Dura_Ace said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Paristonda said:

Charles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Will be interesting if this sinks him. Mind you, watching the prayer circle when VP Pence took "command" the hicks will be praying that Trump brings them salvation as they start to die

Why do people keep on mocking this point?

It’s not uncommon for Christians to pray for wisdom before a meeting.

That doesn’t mean it’s the only thing they are doing

No, although in this case it does appear to be the only thing Pence and Co are actually doing.

Maybe but generally people get a free hit on Christians and expressions of Christianity.

Yes. We should expand that to a free hit on all superstitions.

If someone wanted to start a meeting by checking a horoscope then I'd hope that'd get mocked too.

If someone started their meeting with eyes being closed and a moment of mindfulness, would you mock that? That's essentially what prayer is.

I think I would dismantle my pen and blast the stupid twat with a pellet of chewed paper.

which would be fair enough. but specifically christian (or hindu/muslim/buddhist etc) prayers in an official government meeting are a lot worse. unless you want to live in a theocracy

No they aren't, unless you're a bigot. I'm not a Muslim, but if I were attending a meeting of Muslims, I'd be more than happy to close my eyes with them, pray to my God or no God, and be happy and grateful for their well-wishes. In Syria, the Muslim president attends the Orthodox Church at Easter. That's what being tolerant is about.

I am not a bigot, but favour separation of state and religion.
I also don't think the president of Syria is a model to follow in any way whatsoever.

Well then I'm afraid your attitude lacks sense. The President of Syria probably washes his hands a lot too - are you against that?

On religion, 'banning' prayer, which is essentially what you're proposing, is exactly the same behaviour as enforcing strict Christian observance in the past. It is a religious attitude. It is forcing people to do it your way.

I don't propose banning prayer. I'm quite content to take the piss out of anyone who shares a photo of them praying for a solution.

If someone shared a photo of them looking at a horoscope for a solution to this would you take the piss out of them?

No.

I don't believe you. I would.

I wouldn't take the piss out of anyone sincerely looking for a beneficial outcome.

Superstitions like prayer, horoscopes or any other such nonsense isn't sincerely looking - science is.

eek said:

Time_to_Leave said:

NickPalmer said:

GideonWise said:

Foxy said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

Yes, that is what it is very likely to be like here in a fortnight. North Italy has an excellent health care system, dont fall for lazy stereotypes. You either get ahead of the game, or you wait to act. The Italians look to be chasing the game, but I hope that the measures yesterday stop further spread within that country and beyond.

So you were firmly of the belief that PHE were doing well last week. Sounds like doubts might be creeping in now? I've fluctuated but unfortunately back into the negative now. Too slow.

I think it's tricky so I'm reluctant to criticise, but I don't like the very clear suggestion from the Chief Scientist yesterday that they're holding back some measures because people would get impatient if they lasted too long. There I think a strong political lead is needed - Boris could use some of his considerable capital on it and come out ahead. "We are acting now to prevent numerous avoidable additional deaths. It will mean a long period of inconvenience for many. Put up with it - you are protecting yourself and fellow-Britons from dying unnecessarily." I expect he'll do just that in a few days, but IMO he should get on with it.

It seems to me that there’s some groundwork to lay first, and decisions to be made about what formal notifications are made to allow things like insurance pay-outs. I read yesterday’s announcement as “we think we can safely take two more days to cover all the bases”, with something big pencilled in for Wednesday. No sense announcing something you’re not ready to back up with actions.

Equally if you think people will only self-isolate for say 2 weeks you have to get the timing right so that when people

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CD13 said:

Mr L,

I'm in my seventies, My brother is a year younger but has severe COPD. I spoke to him yesterday and he didn't seem worried. However he was amused by some of the panic-obsessed reactions.

I am 76, have diabetes and copd and therefore in the high risk category

My wife and I have decided to remain at home as much as possible and when we do go into town we wash our hands on returning and of course keep a distance from people

I am not especially worried but some of the panic obsessed reactions just annoy me and in particular some who preach a death cult

I thought that you were only 21?

It seems to me that you and your wife are being sensible and proportionate. It is time that the government encouraged others to do the same. @edmundintokyo's contributions were really interesting overnight. So much can be done with persuasion and good advice.

19 actually.

I am going to cancel our trip to our son's in Vancouver in May but am waiting to see if the government's advise makes it possible, due to my age and risk factor, to claim cancellation from my travel insurance

Can you change the dates to later in the way - I know KLM are now offering rebooking without any rebooking fee (just the difference in flight prices)

I am not sure but I cannot see when the situation will settle down so I either get cancellation insurance of £2,000 BA air fare or refund of insurance of £670.

Of course if BA or the government advise against all non essential travel for high risk elderly then I would get both back. Hence why I am waiting to see what happens

However, my daughter in law and her mother living in Vancouver were due to fly to Australia and join a cruise to New Zealand yesterday but cancelled it 24 hours before leaving and were given a full credit for that cruise to be used on another one at a later date

OldKingCole said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

HYUFD said:

TGOHF666 said:

Communion is a bad idea at the best of times - perhaps why Catholic Italy, Spain, Germany and France have spread so quickly ?

Anglicans have communion too

The Catholic Church here has already sent out guidance about the hygiene steps to be taken before and during Mass and other ways of limiting contact. If you are very ill or dying it looks as if your priest may not visit you at home but provide spiritual care over the phone. The last rites for the Last Rites.

If someone close to me were dying - and I hope to God I am not put in this position - I think I would take the risk and stay with them to the end. The thought of someone I love dying alone uncomforted is horrific.

In sickness and in health....

As an altar boy in my youth I always thought communion, sharing the drinking vessel, was unhygienic. IIRC the priest's view was a) it was holy, so therefore safe, and b) it was alcohol, so therefore safe.
Not sure how much alcohol is in altar wine.

Probably not 60% !

The only alcohol strong enough to be a disinfectant is things like Overproof Rum. Somehow I'm doubting that communion wine is as strong as Wray & Nephew's Overproof Rum.

If it is, that's a religion I might be able to get into!

algarkirk said:

FF43 said:

algarkirk said:

Proportionality observation: Malaria kills 400,000 people, including many children, each year. Road deaths run at over 1 million each year. Are we losing perspective?

The question is whether the situation in Italy now and Hubei before is one that we think acceptable to "take on the chin", as Johnson put it. If it isn't acceptable we need to take effective preventative measures.

I agree, but still wonder if we are losing perspective.

Not sure about the UK, but Germany is still way too complacent. Everyone is just carrying on as normal.
My wife (a senior doctor in a NRW emergency room) was in almost in tears yesterday arguing on the phone with her boss because she wants to test everyone who comes in with possible Coronavirus symptoms not just those with travel to "hotspots" or contact with known cases - which is what the RKI guidelines say. It's especially stupid because NRW itself is a by now pretty much a hotspot.
One argument the hospital used is that if people are tested they have to be put in isolation until the result comes back, and there isn't enough space to put all those people in isolation. Which also seems stupid. The answer surely isn't to not test people.

Sandpit said:

algarkirk said:

Nigelb said:

An Italian doctor’s advice...

(Thread advising stricter measures sooner than later, which goes more than a bit eadric... though from direct experience.)
https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538

In other news international flights continue in and out of Milan Malpensa and every other Italian airport, but do be careful not to shake hands with your best friend when you meet at the South pole.

Some of these may be cargo-only flights, or flying empty thanks to EU rules on slot allocations (use it or lose it basis). There could also be foreigners evacuating Italy on board, who are happy to be quarantined at their destination.

Most flights will be empty , also look at live cam of Trevi fountain it is empty

Philip_Thompson said:

Thanks, that's what I'd expect. If schools close then children will continue to mingle, but with the added effect of visiting grandparents much more often on top of the fact they're still mingling.

While its nice for grandparents to see grandchildren I don't see why removing a school nurse and school teacher's supervision of children and replacing it with grandparents doing so is medical progress.

We are going round in circles here.

eristdoof said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Given the unscheduled closure of schools is counterproductive why would that be sensible? Having children contained within the school environment is better than having them as a diaspora looked after by grandparents etc putting the elderly at more risk.

It is not as clear cut as you make out. Most school children are not at school for 24 hours a day, and if the grandparents live nearby, the children will meet their grandparents regularly anyway. The commuting aspect of day time at school and night time with the family spreads the virus more quickly than day and night with the family.

Your point is valid, but is not the only factor in the argument.