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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders trailing by 22% in Michigan – a state where he beat Hillary at WH2016
Ahead of tomorrow’s Michigan primary two new polls have Bernie struggling to repeat his WH2016 performance where he just edged it over Hillary.
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Er, first?
Re: super spreaders, what of those people on Japanese train platforms whose job it is to push commuters onto the trains before the doors close?1 -
Second0
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Also people like bin men and delivery drivers, who visit lots of different places every day, touching doors, bells, bins.AlastairMeeks said:The optimal spreader will be someone who touches a lot of things that other people will touch. A supermarket shelf stacker must be high on the list.
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The Donald will not be happy with the stock market today. Even more, he will be doing his nut that he's powerless to stop it with a simple gimmick that he can tweet.0
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It doesn't have to be draconian, nor is there any point implementing measures that are ineffective, but the policies do need to be articulated and applied in a consistent and joined up way. So If your policy is that people coming from infected areas such as North Italy should should self-isolate, they should be met at the airport, explained to them what is required in terms of self isolation and not simply allowed to go onto public transport without challenge.kamski said:
getting all medical staff to routinely wear face masks would send a strong message esp. re 3.Philip_Thompson said:
To start with:FF43 said:
I am not aware of a single specific policy that the government has put in place for the Coronavirus epidemic as of now. There are exhortations to wash your hands and to self isolate if in doubt, without explaining exactly what that means. There is also talk of keeping things in review and liaising with various people. I would be happier with:FF43 said:
The message coming through the journalists' briefing session appears to be one of "masterful inactivity". That's Johnson's stock-in-trade, but it doesn't feel like the correct response for an epidemic.FrancisUrquhart said:
No no no no no no.CarlottaVance said:
I can only presume that the testing numbers today are going to look ok and so decided not to pull the emergency break, but seems totally wrong.
1. This thing
2. That thing
3. Another thing
And we will push these policies consistently.
1. Isolating [by force if need be] those who have the virus.
2. Contact tracing and testing to identify who has the virus.
3. Educating the public not to go to the GP/hospital if they suspect they have the virus.0 -
Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.3
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Seems to have calmed nerves, back up to nearly 240000
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Or the Grim Reaper.......Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
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Its entirely possible.Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
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I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.0 -
His last chance is that the Michigan poll is wrong by the same amount as 2016 - 21 points - and that Jesse Jackson reflects a grassroots move towards him. He does look much stronger in places like Washington and California, after all. However I think it's probably all over for him.
A shame, because he's in infinitely better intellectual shape than Biden, and with much more intellectual if not negotiating skill than Biden ( or Corbyn), and his prescient warnings of the catastrophe of US healthcare may be about to be vindicated like never before ; having also given him the potential to become the man of the hour like never before ; but there we are.0 -
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?0 -
He'll give it a good try.Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
Amazing how bad the quality of Presidential candidates has got in recent years.0 -
Two weeks can easily turn into 4 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?0 -
Who is no doubt exuberant after finally getting the better of Max Von Sydow.MarqueeMark said:
Or the Grim Reaper.......Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
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Mr. Urquhart, I'm inclined to agree.0
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https://twitter.com/RebeccaTVnews/status/1237014171755126785FrancisUrquhart said:I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
https://twitter.com/GECFrost/status/12370142545004052490 -
Being realistic seasons will be over if there's a halt in games now (as opposed to simply playing behind closed doors).MaxPB said:
Two weeks can easily turn into 4 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?0 -
You tell people 2 weeks, then it becomes 4 / 6 / 8. Much better to do that than tell people next 6 months no sport.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?0 -
In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?1 -
And having the nags on this week. That is bloody idiotic, people coming from all over the country and massively from Ireland to all stand rammed in, loads of cash changing hands etc.0
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The Americans really really hate "losers". And conversely, really really love "winners". It's probably at least partially why the Iowa and NH races were always so important.Richard_Nabavi said:2 -
Good job the postmen are going on strike then.FrancisUrquhart said:
Also people like bin men and delivery drivers, who visit lots of different places every day, touching doors, bells, bins.AlastairMeeks said:The optimal spreader will be someone who touches a lot of things that other people will touch. A supermarket shelf stacker must be high on the list.
In New York the Dow Jones has opened sharply lower and trading has been suspended whilst they appeal for calm.
I invested in a worldwide growth fund for my SIIP last Tuesday...
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Isnt that a song?Mysticrose said:Carnage on the markets
Wait no, that's Murder on the Dancefloor.
Not good enough according to whom?GideonWise said:
Really? So there is no other possible behaviour change that can happen right now?Scott_xP said:
It just isn't good enough, I'm not surprised the Chinese are heading home.0 -
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He's getting the whole Johnny come lately wanting to be seen to be backing the winner vote. It's a good job for him South Carolina voters weren't influenced in the slightest by Iowa and New Hampshire.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
I-Spy: Tweed jacket. Floral bow-tie. Bright red trousers.
I must be in London.0 -
Yes. Fingers crossed he can handle the campaign. So long as he can, Trump is toast. But can he? I think so, but I'm nervous.Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
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1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.1 -
One of the loony conspiracy theories doing the rounds is that the Chinese released Corona on purpose to make sure Trump does not win again.david_herdson said:The Donald will not be happy with the stock market today. Even more, he will be doing his nut that he's powerless to stop it with a simple gimmick that he can tweet.
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No more idiotic than keeping the tube open.FrancisUrquhart said:And having the nags on this week. That is bloody idiotic, people coming from all over the country and massively from Ireland to all stand rammed in, loads of cash changing hands etc.
That said I don't need any further excuse to avoid the Guinness Village.0 -
As I guessed early, I think that is why we got the keep calm and carry on message today. Be interesting to see how many of those are imported.Philip_Thompson said:
1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.
At the moment, I think we are being very lucky...and probably helped by the fact we don't do the La Bise type greetings as much of Southern Europe does.1 -
I believe that if Sanders had exercised some message discipline he would be romping to the Democratic nomination. All he had to do, I believe, was to focus almost entirely on healthcare and have some coherent position on the economy. The economy was never going to be his motivator, he just had to stop it being a negative for him.0
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Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
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And his family's involvement in the impeachment story has also receded from forefront of the news and of people's memories.Pulpstar said:
He's getting the whole Johnny come lately wanting to be seen to be backing the winner vote. It's a good job for him South Carolina voters weren't influenced in the slightest by Iowa and New Hampshire.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Saunders , like Corbyn isn’t so appealing second time around.0
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At the very least, airline or airport staff should be giving out instructions / advice / maybe even leaflets, if there aren't health staff embedded there. But even that doesn't seem to be happening judging from the number of people who say they were left totally uninformed.FF43 said:
It doesn't have to be draconian, nor is there any point implementing measures that are ineffective, but the policies do need to be articulated and applied in a consistent and joined up way. So If your policy is that people coming from infected areas such as North Italy should should self-isolate, they should be met at the airport, explained to them what is required in terms of self isolation and not simply allowed to go onto public transport without challenge.kamski said:
getting all medical staff to routinely wear face masks would send a strong message esp. re 3.Philip_Thompson said:
To start with:FF43 said:
I am not aware of a single specific policy that the government has put in place for the Coronavirus epidemic as of now. There are exhortations to wash your hands and to self isolate if in doubt, without explaining exactly what that means. There is also talk of keeping things in review and liaising with various people. I would be happier with:FF43 said:
The message coming through the journalists' briefing session appears to be one of "masterful inactivity". That's Johnson's stock-in-trade, but it doesn't feel like the correct response for an epidemic.FrancisUrquhart said:
No no no no no no.CarlottaVance said:
I can only presume that the testing numbers today are going to look ok and so decided not to pull the emergency break, but seems totally wrong.
1. This thing
2. That thing
3. Another thing
And we will push these policies consistently.
1. Isolating [by force if need be] those who have the virus.
2. Contact tracing and testing to identify who has the virus.
3. Educating the public not to go to the GP/hospital if they suspect they have the virus.0 -
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
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On the GWR (Germ Warfare Run) to Paddington.
Bloody thing is half empty, but that half are sneezing and coughing like they've never heard of Covid-19....0 -
You need someone to blame? Why look further than this perennial favourite.contrarian said:
One of the loony conspiracy theories doing the rounds is that the Chinese released Corona on purpose to make sure Trump does not win again.david_herdson said:The Donald will not be happy with the stock market today. Even more, he will be doing his nut that he's powerless to stop it with a simple gimmick that he can tweet.
https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/12369848764039987220 -
Yeah hopefully they do that here as well.Philip_Thompson said:
Being realistic seasons will be over if there's a halt in games now (as opposed to simply playing behind closed doors).MaxPB said:
Two weeks can easily turn into 4 weeks.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?0 -
Does the flu season last 2 weeks?eadric said:
I thought it was just "a bad case of flu"?Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?0 -
That's the point.Philip_Thompson said:so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.
It's needed now
https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1236721200291655680
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The USA truly has the worst votersdavid_herdson said:
And his family's involvement in the impeachment story has also receded from forefront of the news and of people's memories.Pulpstar said:
He's getting the whole Johnny come lately wanting to be seen to be backing the winner vote. It's a good job for him South Carolina voters weren't influenced in the slightest by Iowa and New Hampshire.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
Nailed onRichard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
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The doom mongers will be gutted.Philip_Thompson said:
1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.1 -
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It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
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Indeed, 2m people a day use the tube alone, probably half of which are making at least one journey in congested surroundings - thats 350m journeys a year. Add in trains, buses, metros etc, across the country it could be 1bn+ close proximity journeys a year.TOPPING said:
No more idiotic than keeping the tube open.FrancisUrquhart said:And having the nags on this week. That is bloody idiotic, people coming from all over the country and massively from Ireland to all stand rammed in, loads of cash changing hands etc.
That said I don't need any further excuse to avoid the Guinness Village.
Football attendance in the Uk is around 50m per year, and whilst its busy its rarely quite as close proximity as the tube at rush hour.0 -
Yes. The key things were emphasising the new deal approach and not socialism, which in fact would have been closer to his real tradition, making more of the fact that he won surprising majorities of morally-minded voters in places like Utah, because of a much older quasi religious-populist tradition than Trump's, and exercising total radio silence on things like Cuba.FF43 said:I believe that if Sanders had exercised some message discipline he would be romping to the Democratic nomination. All he had to do, I believe, was to focus almost entirely on healthcare and have some coherent position on the economy. The economy was never going to be his motivator, he just had to stop it being a negative for him.
Still, he might come to be seen as disproportionately important historically in America for a failed candidate, and might carry on having a day-to-day influence on the Democratic platform on health this year, particularly if the outbreak carries on getting worse. The party has already begun to move closer towards his 2016 stance on other issues, after all.0 -
There's a song by Kim Wilde called Chaos at the Airport which seems apt.kle4 said:
Isnt that a song?Mysticrose said:Carnage on the markets
Wait no, that's Murder on the Dancefloor.
Not good enough according to whom?GideonWise said:
Really? So there is no other possible behaviour change that can happen right now?Scott_xP said:
It just isn't good enough, I'm not surprised the Chinese are heading home.1 -
What's amazing is that the bad candidates keep beating better ones. It's only the Dem 2016 that was universally poor, and that because there were only two serious candidates.Andrew said:
He'll give it a good try.Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
Amazing how bad the quality of Presidential candidates has got in recent years.0 -
I feel ill, I agree with Piers Morgan on something... he said the idea we aren't going to be like Italy is bonkers.0
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Let's face it if HMS Queen Elizabeth II sales in to a foreign port it will be a large carrierTOPPING said:
No more idiotic than keeping the tube open.FrancisUrquhart said:And having the nags on this week. That is bloody idiotic, people coming from all over the country and massively from Ireland to all stand rammed in, loads of cash changing hands etc.
That said I don't need any further excuse to avoid the Guinness Village.1 -
It won't be a month, its likely to be many months. And people might stay at home for a month, they won't stay at home many months. So they may end up going to the pub, or to visit elderly relatives or doing other things that is actually WORSE than what would be done otherwise.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
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Isn't there a 6 day doubling time with (essentially) no measures in place to slow the spread?noneoftheabove said:
In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?
So that two weeks isn't 5-10x, it's more like 4- x
If you introduce measures to limit gatherings and travel, and that people are encouraged to work from home, etc., then I would suspect that growth (as seen in South Korea and Singapore) rapidly slows.
That's not a panacea, of course, because once those restrictions are lifted then growth starts again. But with proper management you can really slow the speed at which the virus spreads.0 -
Looking through - South Carolina has predicted the Dem nominee every primary since 1992.
Oh except John Edwards, but he was from there. Also prior to 1992 it was J Jackson that took the state, it was also his home state.0 -
Salmond trial - 1 alleged incident Salmond has claimed an alibi, 3 further he has claimed consent. I am not an expert, but that seems like he's on a very sticky wicket - perhaps one of PB's legal beagles could opine.0
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In terms of economic confidence, there may come a point (we may be past it!) where lack of action undermines confidence even more than over-reaction would.Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
I have no doubt that HMG is following the scientific advice it is being given. But the evidence for that advice is likely to be fuzzy at best. In the presence of uncertainty, more than one "evidence-based" approach may be perfectly reasonable - a lot comes down to the judgment of the advisor. (For example, there may be no firm evidence that shutting down Cheltenham will prevent a single case, versus a precautionary approach that prioritises minimising the risk that it might.)
I'm in no position to say the scientific advice is "incorrect" or "not guided by the evidence". As a member of a high risk group I would somewhat selfishly feel more reassured if either more action or more preparation was visible, and if it was clear the decision-making process (how do we weigh up economic vs health risks of our actions) was more strongly weighted to the health size.1 -
I find the idea that you can't do a month in your own home without going stir crazy rather bonkers. Under normal circumstances, if you were seriously ill you could easily end up in hospital for a month and not be able to leave the ward.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
10+ years ago, I had a major op and was confined to bed at home for 3 months and then I couldn't leave the house for another 2. It really wasn't that bad, with tv, computers, doing work, learning new stuff, talking to my family.2 -
Wrong, its not needed now. The scientists who are experts on this agree that its premature to do it now. You're not flattening the curve by imposing the draconian measures when there's only handfuls of cases out in the wild in this country. You flatten the curve by imposing the measures when they're needed.Scott_xP said:
That's the point.Philip_Thompson said:so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.
It's needed now
https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1236721200291655680
I trust Professor Whitty more than some witless Twitter scraper.3 -
Ah, there in lies the problem. If families are forced together for any length of time they might actually have to start talking to each other. Who knows where that might end up!FrancisUrquhart said:
I find the idea that you can't do a month in your own home without going stir crazy rather bonkers. Under normal circumstances, if you were seriously ill you could easily end up in hospital for a month and not be able to leave the ward.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
10+ years ago, I had a major op and was confined to bed at home for 3 months and then I couldn't leave the house for another 2. It really wasn't that bad, with tv, computers, doing work, learning new stuff, talking to my family.
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I think they need to get the Chinese on the blower and fly them in to sort it all out.eadric said:Christ.
Maybe fake news, of course. There are certainly alarming reports of serious unrest in Italian prisons.
This is another big fear: widespread civil disorder.
twitter.com/NetworksManager/status/1237016122475589634?s=200 -
Well we've all got our WFH orders at the office. I know of four other city offices and buildings that are doing the same.rcs1000 said:
Isn't there a 6 day doubling time with (essentially) no measures in place to slow the spread?noneoftheabove said:
In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.Philip_Thompson said:
A two-week ban is meaningless virtue signalling.FrancisUrquhart said:
I can't believe we aren't stopping sport events, even Greece are doing that...Scott_xP said:
With cases of the coronavirus jumping from 45 to 73 in less than 48 hours in Greece, health authorities have announced further precautionary measures to be enforced with immediate effect. The measures, which include a two-week ban on sporting events.
Does anyone seriously believe this crisis will be over in 2 weeks time?
So that two weeks isn't 5-10x, it's more like 4- x
If you introduce measures to limit gatherings and travel, and that people are encouraged to work from home, etc., then I would suspect that growth (as seen in South Korea and Singapore) rapidly slows.
That's not a panacea, of course, because once those restrictions are lifted then growth starts again. But with proper management you can really slow the speed at which the virus spreads.
I think where the government haven't been making the right moves, companies in London who are worried about staff welfare have stepped up. Now we need the government to do the same so people who work for shitty companies will be forced to allow for their people to work remotely or at least find a way to.limit worked exposure to the plague.0 -
It's very good. Bit by bit, we're clawing back the odd hour here and there to get further behind Italy, and hopefully therefore reducing the UK peak.Philip_Thompson said:
1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.2 -
Keep calm. Carry on.eadric said:Greetings, fellow carriers
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Wonder why Herts has a significant number:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england0 -
It won't be a month though. This epidemic could last months or years and we're right at the start of the curve still now. If we're going to put in restrictions they need to be timed for maximum effect.FrancisUrquhart said:
I find the idea that you can't do a month in your own home without going stir crazy rather bonkers. Under normal circumstances, if you were seriously ill you could easily end up in hospital for a month and not be able to leave the ward.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
10+ years ago, I had a major op and was confined to bed at home for 3 months and then I couldn't leave the house for another 2. It really wasn't that bad, with tv, computers, doing work, learning new stuff, talking to my family.1 -
I know Mrs U didn't look best pleased when I told her the ultimate response is for us to be locked down for a couple of months. Good job we have multi-device Sky / Netflix.Richard_Tyndall said:
Ah, there in lies the problem. If families are forced together for any length of time they might actually have to start talking to each other. Who knows where that might end up!FrancisUrquhart said:
I find the idea that you can't do a month in your own home without going stir crazy rather bonkers. Under normal circumstances, if you were seriously ill you could easily end up in hospital for a month and not be able to leave the ward.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
10+ years ago, I had a major op and was confined to bed at home for 3 months and then I couldn't leave the house for another 2. It really wasn't that bad, with tv, computers, doing work, learning new stuff, talking to my family.2 -
It may be right to, but its simply not clear cut. It may not be very effective, public transport or pubs will be a far bigger spreader. The govt may be saving its bullets where it can shock the public into changing behaviour for later in the crisis. They may be trying to avoid a second peak next winter when Covid 19 will be competing with flu rather than a bigger peak in May. It might be a mix of all of those plus other factors we havent considered.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
If the scientists in and advising the govt, with the latest data and plans are content, Im content.1 -
That is pretty good, if you compare with Spain (362 new), Germany (111) and Netherlands (56)Chameleon said:
It's very good. Bit by bit, we're clawing back the odd hour here and there to get further behind Italy, and hopefully therefore reducing the UK peak.Philip_Thompson said:
1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.1 -
Luton Airport? Plus lots of commuters to London.CarlottaVance said:Wonder why Herts has a significant number:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england0 -
I’m just very keen that hospital resources are not over stretched and that anything that avoids this situation is to be welcomed, especially in Alicante province.FrancisUrquhart said:
I find the idea that you can't do a month in your own home without going stir crazy rather bonkers. Under normal circumstances, if you were seriously ill you could easily end up in hospital for a month and not be able to leave the ward.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
10+ years ago, I had a major op and was confined to bed at home for 3 months and then I couldn't leave the house for another 2. It really wasn't that bad, with tv, computers, doing work, learning new stuff, talking to my family.0 -
According to the news that is all resolved. An old tweet?eadric said:Looks like it's true
https://twitter.com/cheapstare/status/1236836469785985024?s=200 -
If the figures out of China, S Korea, and Japan are to be believed (not to mention Singapore), we know how to contain this virus.
There, new infections are plateauing, and the conversation will be moving to how they can relax measures to restore economic activity without triggering a fresh wave of infection..
We now need to see Europe, specifically Italy, get a grip. But the evidence shows it is possible.
In the UK, the new figures show that it is probably too early to impose country-wide containment policies. We don’t appear to have a regional cluster that can be more easily isolated; therefore any measures will by default affect the whole country.
Having said that, I am not sure why the government is not already advising those who can to work from home.0 -
I have no doubt that Boris is acting on the recommendations of his medical advisers who know far more than us, including some of our more extreme armageddon ones
Unless we hear a direct attack from someone qualified in this complex subject we just need to be careful with our hygeine and follow any future advice that will no doubt be round the corner
Boris is acting as a CEO trusting his experts which is best advice, and not doing a Trump who is an absolute danger to mankind2 -
I was referring to the user who posted it claiming its "needed now", not the person who didn't claim that action was needed now and instead Tweeted the curve with a gif advising (like the government is doing) that you wash your hands.eadric said:
The witless Twitter scraper turns out to be a professional microbiologist and infectious diseases expert. Yes, an "expert".Philip_Thompson said:
Wrong, its not needed now. The scientists who are experts on this agree that its premature to do it now. You're not flattening the curve by imposing the draconian measures when there's only handfuls of cases out in the wild in this country. You flatten the curve by imposing the measures when they're needed.Scott_xP said:
That's the point.Philip_Thompson said:so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.
It's needed now
https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1236721200291655680
I trust Professor Whitty more than some witless Twitter scraper.
Expert on TV now explaining why people mixing at stadiums can be better than the alternatives.0 -
OK, Maybe it was just the Modena one pictured in the tweet that was sorted.eadric said:
Well this is the BBC Rome correspondent, tweeting two hours agoIanB2 said:
According to the news that is all resolved. An old tweet?eadric said:Looks like it's true
https://twitter.com/cheapstare/status/1236836469785985024?s=20
https://twitter.com/marklowen/status/1236990178486562816?s=200 -
I agree. Economic epidemiology is a specialist discipline & crucially you need access to all the data to make sense of the numbers.noneoftheabove said:
It may be right to, but its simply not clear cut. It may not be very effective, public transport or pubs will be a far bigger spreader. The govt may be saving its bullets where it can shock the public into changing behaviour for later in the crisis. They may be trying to avoid a second peak next winter when Covid 19 will be competing with flu rather than a bigger peak in May. It might be a mix of all of those plus other factors we havent considered.
If the scientists in and advising the govt, with the latest data and plans are content, Im content.
If the Govt are following the advice of their experts (& they should have access to really superlative modellers, statisticians and data scientists), then I am content.1 -
Devon is on its heels with 12.CarlottaVance said:Wonder why Herts has a significant number:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england
I assume Devon has lots of rich pensioners who jet off to Italy for skiing in the winter.....which shows they already have a significant reckless streak.0 -
Any idea when we get told how many imported versus how many community transmission? That's the far more interesting figure for me than the combined total.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I guessed early, I think that is why we got the keep calm and carry on message today. Be interesting to see how many of those are imported.Philip_Thompson said:
1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.
At the moment, I think we are being very lucky...and probably helped by the fact we don't do the La Bise type greetings as much of Southern Europe does.
Also would find it reassuring if the suspected community cases were followed up by masses of health workers testing local neighbours, schools, shop workers, the infected person's workplace etc in an effort to pin down where the cluster is and how big it is. Has that been happening quietly, under the radar, or has it just been all about contact tracing? Again I'm not claiming it would be scientifically justified but it would give reassurance on the "something is actually being done" front, and that has its own value (not just politically but economically) right now.0 -
Well personally I hope they do it before a week on Friday. I am due to head up to Aberdeen for a couple of months to support a drilling campaign. It is my choice where I work from but it will be easier for me to make the decision if it is backed by Government advice.Philip_Thompson said:
It won't be a month though. This epidemic could last months or years and we're right at the start of the curve still now. If we're going to put in restrictions they need to be timed for maximum effect.FrancisUrquhart said:
I find the idea that you can't do a month in your own home without going stir crazy rather bonkers. Under normal circumstances, if you were seriously ill you could easily end up in hospital for a month and not be able to leave the ward.nichomar said:
It’s only unnecessary activities for a month, why would anyone go stir crazy because they can’t go to a football match?Philip_Thompson said:
Because it won't work and because the public won't put up with those restraints forever so when it is needed people will already be fraying at the restrictions.Scott_xP said:
Why would you not stop them now to see if we can keep the number of people lower than 5-10x ?noneoftheabove said:In 2 weeks time we should expect there to be 5-10x the number of people with Covid 19 as there are now. That might be the time to introduce the ban on crowds at sporting fixtures.
10+ years ago, I had a major op and was confined to bed at home for 3 months and then I couldn't leave the house for another 2. It really wasn't that bad, with tv, computers, doing work, learning new stuff, talking to my family.1 -
Carry on, carrion.....matthiasfromhamburg said:
Keep calm. Carry on.eadric said:Greetings, fellow carriers
0 -
Yes, it appears to being handled well so far.Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no doubt that Boris is acting on the recommendations of his medical advisers who know far more than us, including some of our more extreme armageddon ones
Unless we hear a direct attack from someone qualified in this complex subject we just need to be careful with our hygeine and follow any future advice that will no doubt be round the corner
Boris is acting as a CEO trusting his experts which is best advice, and not doing a Trump who is an absolute danger to mankind1 -
Markets back 'up' to and hovering around 24,300, but looking to me like they are considering another fall.0
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The UK news today is good - maybe jo public is being sensibly cautious. In Spain today it is very, very bad - fortunately not in the part I live in - but now is the time for the new government to act before we head the way of northern Italy. I'm not convinced they will but here's hoping.0
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A worrying adversary for Joe Biden.Richard_Nabavi said:Only Joe Biden can stop Joe Biden now.
2 -
If you believe my logic in the post earlier, then stocks are already undersold. Sentiment is currently panicking, driven by -
- European slowdown / guaranteed recession.
- Poor political leadership in US on the virus.
- The oil dispute0 -
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You need to understand that @eadric is in the process of quite an elaborate exercise with all this. My first thought is that it's for a book or journalism project.IanB2 said:
According to the news that is all resolved. An old tweet?eadric said:Looks like it's true
https://twitter.com/cheapstare/status/1236836469785985024?s=20
He is pretty good at it but careless at times also.
Time will tell.0 -
Nobody wants this to be bad, there are differing views on how bad it will get but nobody actively is hoping for to to be terrible. Even our doom-monger in chief says he will be delighted if it turns out to be nothing too serious.TGOHF666 said:
The doom mongers will be gutted.Philip_Thompson said:
1401 negative tests past 24 hoursFrancisUrquhart said:Same sort of increase as yesterday....
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1237015402028335105?s=20
46 positive tests past 24 hours
That's pretty good.
Only in your nasty mind is anybody going to be "gutted" if it turns out better than predicted.0 -
Or the New Town in Edinburgh.SandyRentool said:I-Spy: Tweed jacket. Floral bow-tie. Bright red trousers.
I must be in London.1 -
This is precisely the time for experts. As long as Prof. Whitty is in charge making the decisions rather than Twitter muppets I'm happy.YBarddCwsc said:
I agree. Economic epidemiology is a specialist discipline & crucially you need access to all the data to make sense of the numbers.noneoftheabove said:
It may be right to, but its simply not clear cut. It may not be very effective, public transport or pubs will be a far bigger spreader. The govt may be saving its bullets where it can shock the public into changing behaviour for later in the crisis. They may be trying to avoid a second peak next winter when Covid 19 will be competing with flu rather than a bigger peak in May. It might be a mix of all of those plus other factors we havent considered.
If the scientists in and advising the govt, with the latest data and plans are content, Im content.
If the Govt are following the advice of their experts (& they should have access to really superlative modellers, statisticians and data scientists), then I am content.1 -
Three major centers, Madrid,la Rioja and the Basque Country. Madrid doubles in 24 hours. Five month old baby in Murcia tested positive, they still reckon the Fallas is going ahead which is madness.felix said:The UK news today is good - maybe jo public is being sensibly cautious. In Spain today it is very, very bad - fortunately not in the part I live in - but now is the time for the new government to act before we head the way of northern Italy. I'm not convinced they will but here's hoping.
1 -
I think the markets are not only reflecting on covid 19 but also the collapse in the oil price facilitated by Putin to damage Trumps shaleIanB2 said:Markets back 'up' to and hovering around 24,300, but looking to me like they are considering another fall.
0 -
Not seen a single mask yet.....eadric said:
How many are wearing masks? 0.1%?MarqueeMark said:On the GWR (Germ Warfare Run) to Paddington.
Bloody thing is half empty, but that half are sneezing and coughing like they've never heard of Covid-19....
This is the crazy thing. If everyone wore a mask infections would plummet. It's so simple, and it's one big reason Asia is handling this better than us. They all wear masks.
Western individualism is going to kill us.
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This discussion has been closed.