politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UK total up 47 to 163
Comments
-
The US is also not in a good place, I agree.LostPassword said:
Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
They are the UK c.1920s.0 -
It's interesting how well he's doing in heartlands: West Virginia, Wyoming, etc.Alistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
Maybe he's going to do a Clinton and end up with an inefficient vote share this time around.0 -
America will not be able to control the movement of people like a police state can if it worsens over there.LostPassword said:
Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
0 -
I'm still laughing at Bloomberg.
Is that mean?0 -
"The Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all travel to the cities of Daegu, Cheongdo and Gyeongsan due to the ongoing coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, the increased incidence of community transmission and increasing pressure on medical services in these areas."
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/south-korea0 -
Covid has the potential to unleash medieval style behaviour from our cave dwellers.IshmaelZ said:So this is horrific
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
Public order is a big worry for me.0 -
True, but on the other hand people are much more spread out and there's little public transport.nunu2 said:
America will not be able to control the movement of people like a police state can if it worsens over there.LostPassword said:
Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
0 -
-
In principle a democracy with an educated citizenship, good information and competent leadership, would be able to rely on its population following the recommendations of its government health experts without resorting to force.nunu2 said:
America will not be able to control the movement of people like a police state can if it worsens over there.LostPassword said:
Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
I'm not looking forward to having this argument tested.1 -
$500m buys a lot of laughs.Casino_Royale said:I'm still laughing at Bloomberg.
Is that mean?
OTOH, he’s not taking his bat home, and is carrying on (funding) the fight against Trump, so a degree of respect is due.0 -
That's Exeter for you. A red blob of intolerance in a sea of chilled-out blue.....IshmaelZ said:So this is horrific
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.1 -
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?rcs1000 said:
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.Andy_JS said:
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.Alistair said:
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.eadric said:
Which is your favourite model of the moment?Henrietta5 said:Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.0 -
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.0 -
Big church congregations, and they seem a major hotspot in the epidemic.rcs1000 said:
True, but on the other hand people are much more spread out and there's little public transport.nunu2 said:
America will not be able to control the movement of people like a police state can if it worsens over there.LostPassword said:
Not if the US ends up suffering more deaths. China will then be seen as relatively competent.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
1 -
It is (and it's a surprise it's amongst young students who I thought were supposed to be Uber woke and progressive) but these are still very isolated incidents.IshmaelZ said:So this is horrific
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.1 -
I think the number will end up being close to zero.Monkeys said:
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?rcs1000 said:
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.Andy_JS said:
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.Alistair said:
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.eadric said:
Which is your favourite model of the moment?Henrietta5 said:Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.0 -
I see no suggestion the perps are students.Casino_Royale said:
It is (and it's a surprise it's amongst young students who I thought were supposed to be Uber woke and progressive) but these are still very isolated incidents.IshmaelZ said:So this is horrific
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.0 -
I have rather more respect for Mr Rennie than I do for Ms Swinson.Charles said:0 -
nunu2 said:
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.
Those figures show WI, MI and IA all flipping blue from last time. That makes it 270-268 to Trump. But if NE-02 flips then that’s a tie..nunu2 said:
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.0 -
Yes, and as there will be partial immunity from first exposure, much milder disease.rcs1000 said:
I think the number will end up being close to zero.Monkeys said:
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?rcs1000 said:
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.Andy_JS said:
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.Alistair said:
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.eadric said:
Which is your favourite model of the moment?Henrietta5 said:Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.0 -
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.nunu2 said:
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.0 -
The situations aren't really comparable. We never had a Government whose sole purpose was Brexit - if you remember at the time of the referendum the Government was dead against it. So despite a lot of other issues, we never saw state institutions geared away from their assigned tasks and toward some sort of pro-Brexit propaganda campaign for years. If we had, it would have been equally reprehensible.malcolmg said:
Yes sooner we are free of those Westminster numpties the betterLuckyguy1983 said:
I don't see what's sad about it. Scotland is a wonderful country and deserves better than a bunch of loonies running its Government as a pro-indy pressure group.Monkeys said:
Sadly, I expect it's this. There was a time when everything was "Good for the SNP," and I think (because of the men) it's now all Bad.Luckyguy1983 said:
It would seem more that they want to be in place to capitalise on the fall of Sturgeon. Vultures circling would seem a more apt metaphor.malcolmg said:Looks like there will be a few coming for the big battle for independence next year, the rats are fleeing London
EXCLUSIVE: Jo Swinson ‘mulling over’ Holyrood run amid rumours Willie Rennie stepping down as Scottish Lib Dem leader
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2055536/exclusive-jo-swinson-mulling-over-holyrood-run-amid-rumours-willie-rennie-stepping-down-as-scottish-lib-dem-leader/?utm_source=twitter
Also Swinson didn't do as badly as people think - over 50% more votes than 2017.0 -
They also have a good shot at flipping AZ which is tuning increasing blue. Plus an outside chance in GA.rpjs said:
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.nunu2 said:
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.0 -
I think Mike was referring to the Brexit tribe.Richard_Tyndall said:
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.MikeSmithson said:
I think that yours is the tribal response here.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.Nigel_Foremain said:
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your last sentence is just nasty.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?CarlottaVance said:Quite a swing - typical after a GE?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1235946635047374849?s=20
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented.
The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with.
HS2 decision made.
The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.0 -
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
There's been a bit of speculation that recovering from one strain of the virus doesn't give you immunity from the other - hence why there's a couple of re-infections going on. Could have been because of dodgy tests results before discharge though.Foxy said:
Yes, and as there will be partial immunity from first exposure, much milder disease.rcs1000 said:
I think the number will end up being close to zero.Monkeys said:
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?rcs1000 said:
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.Andy_JS said:
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.Alistair said:
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.eadric said:
Which is your favourite model of the moment?Henrietta5 said:Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.0 -
They were 15 and 16 year olds in Oxford Street the other day.IshmaelZ said:
I see no suggestion the perps are students.Casino_Royale said:
It is (and it's a surprise it's amongst young students who I thought were supposed to be Uber woke and progressive) but these are still very isolated incidents.IshmaelZ said:So this is horrific
"At least six reports of coronavirus-related attacks have been received by Devon and Cornwall Police.
People from Chinese and Asian backgrounds in Exeter have been assaulted and verbally abused by groups of men.
Victims, three of them students, have been punched, kicked, spat on and told to "go back to your own country - you must have coronavirus"."
It turns out there are more efficient catalysts of racist thuggery than Brexit.
And I think we can gloomily look forward to a lot of fckwitted vigilantism, no longer directed only at minorities, as this progresses. So voluntary self isolation may have a pretty big involuntary component to it.
That said, I walked faster up the escalator at Bank tube the other day when an Asian man in his 30s started walking closer behind me and coughing loudly near me.
Yes, yes.. I know, I know... Judge me. But it's a reflexive instinct.0 -
-
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
Do you think? I don't think they have a brand really. Chinese products are cheaper, or better value let's say. That's it. That's no offence to China - I fully admire them for their achievement of economic dominance, but I don't see their prospect of future business being damaged providing their products remain cheaper than the competition.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
0 -
Base yourself in Ballynahincheadric said:
This is pretty sensible advice. Yes you can still go somewhere in the UK or Ireland. (The UK if you want to help the British tourist economy)Richard_Nabavi said:
The chances of getting the bug in the UK at a restaurant or hotel at the moment are absolutely minuscule, and not necessarily any higher than staying at home and going out to do the shopping or meeting friends. A trip around Ireland would also be very safe.SouthamObserver said:I have a few days holiday coming up thanks to our event in Dublin being called off. There are some options, but I’m genuinely not sure what to do:
1. Use the tickets paid for and non-refundable to go to Dublin anyway and have a look around Ireland for a few days.
2. Write the tickets off and do a British trip instead
3. Stay at home because now is not the time to be travelling.
I figure that hotels, restaurants and other places need people to still be out and about, but I worry that right now it’s not the right thing to do.
Thoughts?
The further abroad you go the greater the chance of being marooned there, or excluded from home, if there is a sudden change in quarantine/lockdown wherever you are, or wherever your home is.
And you don't want to go anywhere with a crap health system.
I'd do Cornwall, the West Country, or the Irish West Coast, Connemara maybe.....0 -
Hong Kong is passé. You need to work a D in.Charles said:0 -
Could it be a testimony to their health system and population-level good hygiene?eadric said:
He is right to point out Germany tho, it is an odd anomaly. 670 cases and still not a single death?Chameleon said:
And 8 of the 53 took place in the past 24 odd hours. Your ridiculous belief that somehow western Europe will be mostly left alone is a bit silly.Andy_JS said:Almost all the fatalities continue to take place in 4 countries: 3,408 out of 3,461.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
That's..... weird. I am sure it is explicable, or just coincidence. But it is striking, nonetheless.0 -
Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.0 -
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
0 -
We cannot do China level containment. It is entirely useless as a potential battleplan.Casino_Royale said:Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.0 -
It’s odd really. The tech industry is a master of tax arbitrage yet it attracts people who think it’s a moral choice. Their salaries are paid for by agressive intragroup licensing arrangements.rpjs said:
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.nunu2 said:
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.0 -
It's controllable if the correct measures are put in place. But we cant weld people into apartments so we are relying on people behaving in optimal ways voluntarily. I have my doubts that is going to happen.Casino_Royale said:Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.0 -
It may not give complete immunity, but it will be likely to be a degree of stamina.Chameleon said:
There's been a bit of speculation that recovering from one strain of the virus doesn't give you immunity from the other - hence why there's a couple of re-infections going on. Could have been because of dodgy tests results before discharge though.Foxy said:
Yes, and as there will be partial immunity from first exposure, much milder disease.rcs1000 said:
I think the number will end up being close to zero.Monkeys said:
Do we have any numbers on re-infection rates? Percentage that get the virus, recover, then get it again?rcs1000 said:
I do... Don't forget that (a) people don't stay infected, and (b) some people - for one genetic reason or another - will be unlikely to get it.Andy_JS said:
The important metric is going to be the mortality rate. I don't doubt that most people will be infected eventually.Alistair said:
Still ahead of schedule, between 22nd of March and start of April.eadric said:
Which is your favourite model of the moment?Henrietta5 said:Under 3400 new cases outside of China today (figure published 1-2am tomorrow) and it would have looked as though the virus would be brought under control by the end of the month.
Unfortunately we are only at 6.15 pm and the figure is already 3440.
Every country I check I see exponential growth (outside Japan, Taiwan etc)
https://twitter.com/SolankeSanjay/status/1221807294926614528?s=19
So, at some point there are fewer and fewer people who can be easily infected, and that's when transmission starts to slow down. My guess is a reasonable peak guess will be 60% of the world population.1 -
Like I said then, another one mired in the past.Nigelb said:
I think Mike was referring to the Brexit tribe.Richard_Tyndall said:
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.MikeSmithson said:
I think that yours is the tribal response here.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.Nigel_Foremain said:
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your last sentence is just nasty.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?CarlottaVance said:Quite a swing - typical after a GE?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1235946635047374849?s=20
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented.
The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with.
HS2 decision made.
The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.0 -
Seems to be a form of bravado, inviting infections, even fatalities. Death, do your worst to us Scots wha hae wi' Wallace bled.GideonWise said:
0 -
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
0 -
I did the Inverness to Kyle line back in 1991. Back then you had to get the ferry if you wanted to go to Skye.Sunil_Prasannan said:Just back in Aberdeen after doing the full length of the Aberdeen to Inverness rail line. Went as far as Inverurie back in January due to time constraints.
Hopefully no one on board had Covid! But I just need two "proper" passenger trains left in Scotland: Inverness to Kyle, and Inverness to Thurso and Wick. May need to see how things pan out before trying those out....1 -
Arizona is also a Dem target.rpjs said:
Assuming the Dems hold all the states they won in 2016 (a good bet I think), then if Trump loses MI and WI, then the Dems just have to turn Florida or North Carolina or Pennsylvania. Personally I think the Dems will get back PA, and I think NC should be pretty easy for them - it's the new Virginia: a state that's turning blue due to an influx of lefter-leaning voters attracted by tech jobs.nunu2 said:
If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania he will win. Idk how exactly he will get to 270 but if he gets those two it suggests close results are mainly going his wayAlistair said:
There are some real wildcards in there. Alaska for instance.rcs1000 said:
This is the bible: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/Pulpstar said:How does everyone make the Dem/GOP horse race ?
Interesting to note that Joe Biden received more votes in Virginia than Clinton and Sanders did combined in 2016.
He managed the trick in Minnesota also.
Whilst those states are expected to stay blue I wonder if he can rack up big numbers in PA, WI, FL ?
Biden was +5.5 on the RCP spread vs Trump and that was coming off a poor cycle for him.
The 2.58 for him to get the presidency could be massive.
Forget hypotheticals. The question is "how popular is Trump in a given state".
And right now, Florida and Pennsylvania look pretty good for him, while Michigan and Wisconsin look bloody awful.0 -
It’s a view. There are others.Richard_Tyndall said:
Like I said then, another one mired in the past.Nigelb said:
I think Mike was referring to the Brexit tribe.Richard_Tyndall said:
Showing your ignorance Mike. I am not a Boris fan, did not want him for PM (something I mentioned many times on here) and think he is a thoroughly reprehensible individual.MikeSmithson said:
I think that yours is the tribal response here.Richard_Tyndall said:
I am afraid that it is you who continues to display your normal tribal bias. You hate this current government and the whole Brexit scenario so much they will never be able to do anything that would satisfy you.Nigel_Foremain said:
A Home Sec in an employment tribunal for bullying? Your tribal loyalty is as quaint as your belief in the fairytale of Brexit.Philip_Thompson said:
It's very early days in this government but so far it has been 10/10 great.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think it was meant to satirical, so I think you may need to do the growing up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your last sentence is just nasty.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Without looking at the details, I am not surprised. What's the government done?CarlottaVance said:Quite a swing - typical after a GE?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1235946635047374849?s=20
Well, oven-ready Brexit but that's not improved anyone's life and if it turns out a lot of Brexit voters were not really voting on Brexit but against decline in general -- and Arron Banks and Dominic Cummings would agree with that -- then where are we? Any genuinely hardcore Brexiteers might see that we are still in a transition period so they won't be happy either. And that is betting without the natural Labour voters in the red wall seats.
So what has the government done? It's got Carrie pregnant and exiled Harry and Meghan but what else?
Carrie being pregnant and Harry and Megan have nothing to do with HMG
Some people need to grow up
The achievements of this government are pretty difficult to identify. We have a blustering PM who is in thrall to a very unsavoury "advisor" and a Home Sec who is likely to find herself in an employment tribunal for bullying. This is a government that already stinks of incompetence, which for a supposed Tory government is not a good look.
A renegotiated deal that was supposed to be impossible has been negotiated and implemented.
The threat of Corbyn has been dealt with.
HS2 decision made.
The coronavirus outbreak has been dealt with well so far.
Early days still but nothing to criticise so far.
The rest of us have moved on whilst you continue to sink in the mire of the past.
So claiming I am being tribal about him and his Government really is very dumb of you.0 -
The waters close quickly. Hopefully, you’ve left a material legacy, be it pushing forward good people or making a difference. Most Partners don’t.AlastairMeeks said:
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
0 -
The welding into apartments is over the top (and I bet of doubtful value anyway).Chameleon said:
We cannot do China level containment. It is entirely useless as a potential battleplan.Casino_Royale said:Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
But, the civil contingency act is a powerful thing.0 -
On the contrary.Luckyguy1983 said:
Do you think? I don't think they have a brand really. Chinese products are cheaper, or better value let's say. That's it. That's no offence to China - I fully admire them for their achievement of economic dominance, but I don't see their prospect of future business being damaged providing their products remain cheaper than the competition.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
In my industry (clothing) China has an extraordinarily strong brand - among professional clothing buyers. A country of limited creative or stylistic skills (which don't matter, since most designing's done in the West), but a formidably reliable network of businesses supplying raw materials, key components (like buttons and zips) and on-time, high-quality, garment assembly.
If anything, I'd say that brand has been strengthened by the country's robust response to the crisis. Everyone knows the place is run by unaccountable and out of touch politicians, so no-one's surprised the issue was badly fudged in the early days.
But the contrast between the ruthlessness of China's containment programme since late Jan and the self-deceiving, lackadaisical, behaviour of the White House and the cockups in Italy, Japan and Korea, is stark.
In Jan, I'd say there was a case for repatriating production (though it's currently impossible). With the haplessness four Western countries are showing (and that Johnson is still showing on most other issues), China's reputation for Teutonic reliability once it knows what the problem is has probably improved over the past month.0 -
Nah. Emergency powers.GideonWise said:
It's controllable if the correct measures are put in place. But we cant weld people into apartments so we are relying on people behaving in optimal ways voluntarily. I have my doubts that is going to happen.Casino_Royale said:Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
I'm up for it for 2-3 months.1 -
Nor I. The point is FILTH is an artefact of the 1980s.IshmaelZ said:0 -
Ace. I'm up for it too.Casino_Royale said:
Nah. Emergency powers.GideonWise said:
It's controllable if the correct measures are put in place. But we cant weld people into apartments so we are relying on people behaving in optimal ways voluntarily. I have my doubts that is going to happen.Casino_Royale said:Genuine question: is 60% infection really realistic?
Hubei province (ground zero) has almost 60 million people and new cases are on the decline. And, yet, global cases have only just topped 100k.
That suggests a plateau of less than 1% infection. *If* extreme containment (aka China) measures are taken.
Nothing about this is inevitable.
I'm up for it for 2-3 months.0 -
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.1 -
That sucks.AlastairMeeks said:
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
No doubt you won’t be the only one whose plans are sabotaged this year... or worse.
But it still sucks.0 -
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?AlastairMeeks said:
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Pb looks out for its own.1 -
I'd be shocked if it wasn't being discussed. Bit tricky for the continent though.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
Count me in.Casino_Royale said:
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?AlastairMeeks said:
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Pb looks out for its own.2 -
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
Your attempts at mathematics are still risible thougheadric said:
I predicted this some weeks ago, and I remember being roundly ridiculed by basically everyone on PB! (including possibly you)Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
I am prophet without honour etc etc0 -
Not great for Andorra, San Marino or Liechtenstein then.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.1 -
The stable door manoeuvre.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
If there is a post viral PB meet-up, I’d make the effort too.Gallowgate said:
Count me in.Casino_Royale said:
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?AlastairMeeks said:
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Pb looks out for its own.2 -
Let them eat tax avoiders.noneoftheabove said:
Not great for Andorra, San Marino or Liechtenstein then.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
-
Same.Nigelb said:
If there is a post viral PB meet-up, I’d make the effort too.Gallowgate said:
Count me in.Casino_Royale said:
We could always take you on a massive piss-up later in the year, Alastair?AlastairMeeks said:
That’s where I’m heading, though in practice it would mean cancellation given the way things move on. It’s a shame because it would have been nice to mark 28 years with the firm, but I have to recognise reality.Charles said:
Postpone. People will understand.AlastairMeeks said:I have a personal problem with the Covid-19 outbreak. I'm due to be hosting leaving drinks in late April. Do I book them or don't I?
Pb looks out for its own.1 -
It's mutual. Swinson's disdain for white men is a matter of public record:rcs1000 said:
I have rather more respect for Mr Rennie than I do for Ms Swinson.Charles said:
https://twitter.com/joswinson/status/1186956577699446784?lang=en
Are there any in Scotland, I wonder? Do they still have a vote?1 -
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
I think in our case, country level is the only viable approach to this method.noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
San Marino's per capita infection rate is astronomical: 23 out of 33,000. Italy would be well advised to close the border.matt said:
Let them eat tax avoiders.noneoftheabove said:
Not great for Andorra, San Marino or Liechtenstein then.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.1 -
I wouldnt be surprised if some countries, including the UK, decide closing their own borders is best for them, it may or may not be. I think it is impossible it is right for all countries, or even the worldwide population to close all borders.tlg86 said:
I think in our case, country level is the only viable approach to this method.noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
Because irrespective of the size of your rooms, the only lockable things are the doors between them.noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.1 -
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.0 -
Seeing as I dont have more resources or more data than the UK government or WHO I will go along with whatever they decide. Which will be slowing down the virus until the late Spring/Summer rather than trying to stop it and ending up with a second peak next winter when our hospitals really couldnt cope.GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal fluGideonWise said:
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.0 -
Very sorry but your last statement is absolute nonsense which negates the rest of your post.state_go_away said:
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal fluGideonWise said:
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.0 -
ok Mr Pompous manGideonWise said:
Very sorry but your last statement is absolute nonsense which negates the rest of your post.state_go_away said:
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal fluGideonWise said:
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.-1 -
Letting the old and sick do their duty does have advantages on many fronts, doesn't it?state_go_away said:
Just let it take its course with some sensible not over the top sanctions.Otherwise society will break down and we will still be fafhing around trying to stop it when its not that much dangerous than normal fluGideonWise said:
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.0 -
Saw a couple wearing facemasks in Waitrose this afternoon. Could have been Chinese, oriental anyway. No one paid them any attention - this is Edinburgh, Morningside. Then on my way home saw another, jogging. I hope it doesn't become the new normal. My normalcy bias showing there.0
-
Even if the world does run out of Andrex we can still replicate Shea Butter toilet rolls with a slab of lard and the sun newspaper?0
-
There was quite a lot of movement over borders in 1918. Not quite as quickly but equally information didn’t flow in the same way.GideonWise said:
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.
Quite a lot of borders moving as well.-1 -
Just commenting on the snippet from Charles. In my view it has a lot of merit. We can't do what China has done but we can close borders between a number of countries.noneoftheabove said:
Seeing as I dont have more resources or more data than the UK government or WHO I will go along with whatever they decide. Which will be slowing down the virus until the late Spring/Summer rather than trying to stop it and ending up with a second peak next winter when our hospitals really couldnt cope.GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Thinking about it, this was hinted at by the Chief Scientific Officer when he said a select few countries might move together. I didn't know what he meant but perhaps its this.0 -
Will anyone survive covid 19 ..why should you give a fuck about bond rates?eadric said:
Meh. I am a genius superforecaster with near-clairvoyant gifts. But I am crap at working out how to invest in bonds so as to avoid inflation. That I admit.Charles said:
Your attempts at mathematics are still risible thougheadric said:
I predicted this some weeks ago, and I remember being roundly ridiculed by basically everyone on PB! (including possibly you)Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
I am prophet without honour etc etc0 -
Do they have to take them off when they go into a bank? Just askin'geoffw said:Saw a couple wearing facemasks in Waitrose this afternoon. Could have been Chinese, oriental anyway. No one paid them any attention - this is Edinburgh, Morningside. Then on my way home saw another, jogging. I hope it doesn't become the new normal. My normalcy bias showing there.
0 -
I don't think Korea is doing badly. These are their infection and mortality figures btw.Flanner said:
On the contrary.Luckyguy1983 said:
Do you think? I don't think they have a brand really. Chinese products are cheaper, or better value let's say. That's it. That's no offence to China - I fully admire them for their achievement of economic dominance, but I don't see their prospect of future business being damaged providing their products remain cheaper than the competition.Casino_Royale said:The long term damage to brand China is going to be huge over this.
In my industry (clothing) China has an extraordinarily strong brand - among professional clothing buyers. A country of limited creative or stylistic skills (which don't matter, since most designing's done in the West), but a formidably reliable network of businesses supplying raw materials, key components (like buttons and zips) and on-time, high-quality, garment assembly.
If anything, I'd say that brand has been strengthened by the country's robust response to the crisis. Everyone knows the place is run by unaccountable and out of touch politicians, so no-one's surprised the issue was badly fudged in the early days.
But the contrast between the ruthlessness of China's containment programme since late Jan and the self-deceiving, lackadaisical, behaviour of the White House and the cockups in Italy, Japan and Korea, is stark.
In Jan, I'd say there was a case for repatriating production (though it's currently impossible). With the haplessness four Western countries are showing (and that Johnson is still showing on most other issues), China's reputation for Teutonic reliability once it knows what the problem is has probably improved over the past month.
https://twitter.com/YangeHan/status/1235866453028438019?s=090 -
People do actually die anyway in Britain - Quite a lot actually probably not far off that 1M a year so it not exactly zombie takeover - Its funny this hyberbole in a way but you seem to be getting sincere supporterseadric said:
We are an island nation. Sometimes this works against us (we become literally insular and backward) sometimes it works in our favour. We are able to control our borders in a way few nations can.tlg86 said:
I think in our case, country level is the only viable approach to this method.noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Note that some of the countries doing better, already, at containing Coronavirus. are also islands: Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore (sort of an island).
Closing our island frontier will be economically grim. 1m dead and 3m in "hospital" will be far, far grimmer.
This plague is about as bad as it gets, potentially. Wartime measures are required.0 -
We did, though. A widely held theory is that Spanish flu emerged in the USA which then knowingly exported shiploads of infectious soldiers to Europe to win the war. Not that that negates your point.GideonWise said:
And do what then? Lock down within countries and then allow international travel to then undo the good work?state_go_away said:
Dont do it?GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
This is a new paradigm. We didnt have movement between borders like this in 1918. We will need new solutions.0 -
The Chinese believe that their surveillance systems can work around masks. It’s all about control. This is China: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074016/its-all-fake-angry-residents-shout-chinese-vice-premier-sunalterego said:
Do they have to take them off when they go into a bank? Just askin'geoffw said:Saw a couple wearing facemasks in Waitrose this afternoon. Could have been Chinese, oriental anyway. No one paid them any attention - this is Edinburgh, Morningside. Then on my way home saw another, jogging. I hope it doesn't become the new normal. My normalcy bias showing there.
0 -
And how would Britain import the food it needs if that happened?geoffw said:
The stable door manoeuvre.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.0 -
This is the saying I always get wrong:eadric said:
ONE horse has bolted. That's not good. But at least half a dozen remain in their stables, eyeing the open door.geoffw said:
The stable door manoeuvre.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
So lock the door.
"Bolting the stable door after the horse has, er... bolted?"0 -
Quite possible that the Northern Hemisphere well off countries move together by trying to time the peak of the virus to our summer by co-ordinating their actions. Doubt closing a significant number of borders is part of it, let alone all borders.GideonWise said:
Just commenting on the snippet from Charles. In my view it has a lot of merit. We can't do what China has done but we can close borders between a number of countries.noneoftheabove said:
Seeing as I dont have more resources or more data than the UK government or WHO I will go along with whatever they decide. Which will be slowing down the virus until the late Spring/Summer rather than trying to stop it and ending up with a second peak next winter when our hospitals really couldnt cope.GideonWise said:
That's the way the world works. What do you suggest as an alternative?noneoftheabove said:
Absolute nonsense. Countries vary in size from about 1000 people to 1.4 bn people. How can country level possibly be the right unit to lock down when it is so randomly varied?GideonWise said:
It's the only way to fix this thing. Lock down, isolate, quarantine. Heal the sick. Smooth the pandemic curve then develop the vaccine.Charles said:
I have been told - but I cannot verify although I trust the source - that closing all international borders is being discussed at an intergovernmental levelChameleon said:
Gosh, if I had holiday trips booked to say Rome, Como, and Spain in late March and April I'd be really quite annoyed at this turn in events...Charles said:
Less than thateadric said:CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235967126613168135?s=20
BA have suspended half their LHR SIN 380 flights
We're about two weeks away from the total suspension of almost all international air traffic.
Thinking about it, this was hinted at by the Chief Scientific Officer when he said a select few countries might move together. I didn't know what he meant but perhaps its this.0 -
How come we've not heard anything about anti-virals so far? During the Swine Flu pandemic the whole world knew about "Tamiflu" but this time, so far, we've heard nothing about trials etc?0
