politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bloomberg becomes the first of the elderly septuagenarians to

eadric said:

Here is just one: everyone on this ship was disembarked by March 1, and then separated and isolated, preventing further infection.

This doesn't invalidate your argument but unfortunately they didn't do that, they isolated the people who tested positive, and put everyone else on a bus to the nearest train station and told them to make their own way home. Some of them were testing positive a week later...

Chip shop joke

https://twitter.com/BonesDeForest/status/1234161567475937288?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235316980527353859?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235319875129794561?s=20

IanB2 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

IanB2 said:

Casino_Royale said:

I've finally found something that unites the nation - Remainers and Leavers - alike.

Fish and chips.

Isn't that wonderful?

Wait til Brexit puts the price of cod and haddock through the roof

Pudding, peas, chips and gravy is what the cognoscenti order.

Not two cheese without chips plus one chips with chips?

Cheesy Peas.

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1235345730233040896?s=20

isam said:

Spurs fan allegedly racially abusing one of their players for missing a penalty, so Eric Dier runs into the crowd to fight them

https://twitter.com/sbergwijn_/status/1235331816946577411?s=21

https://twitter.com/joefreedman_joe/status/1235332825467015172?s=21

Actually apparently the fan didn’t say anything racist, that’s FAKE NEWS. Someone in the crowd had a go at Diers actual brother, and he steamed in!!

https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1235333670648655879

Pretty sure Reich was in the Clinton cabinet, but maybe I have misremembered.

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

IshmaelZ said:

eadric said:

Nigelb said:

TOPPING said:

Some mad woman on the telly telling us we shouldn't be too worried about Coronavirus.

What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.

Some nutter stateside, too.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

This writer is using the Diamond Princess to support the argument that CFR is exaggerated. I'd love to believe this is true but there are obvious doubts.

Here is just one: everyone on this ship was disembarked by March 1, and then separated and isolated, preventing further infection.

I look forward to the space ships which can ferry us all off planet earth, and isolate us on other planets.

He says Diamond Princess has 6 deaths out of 706 infected, for a CFR of 0.85%, but ignores that 35 are seriously or critically ill (per Worldometer). Seriously and critically aren't defined, but only one quarter of that lot have to die to bring CFR up to 2%.

One of my big concerns is the low rate of "recovered". The Satan Bug might be mild in 80%, but it seems to take an awfully long time to clear, or for the host to regitster negative.

Hmm.

I wonder if it could also be that when the health system is stretched, ticking off who is now fully recovered is probably rather low down the list of dealing with the dead and newly arrived.

Yes, quite possibly. Also, the salience of Iran and China in the data, and their known propensity to lie, makes all the figures suspicious

But these numbers are all we have.

This disease could be anything from a severe normal flu to something worse than Spanish flu. The reaction of the Chinese to the initial outbreak (total lockdown of 10s of millions, causing inevitable economic shock) tends me towards pesssimism.

We will soon know.

And on that sober note, night night pb and stay safe

Just linked to somebody who had it, it does seem like it came and went and came back again...but then I am not sure his approach of drinking booze etc was the best approach and clearly they didn't know what he had so had the no treatment.

Dura_Ace said:

nichomar said:

Interesting to know how many posters on here had parents that were interested in politics, watched the news and reacted to it. We are quick to claim young people just are not interested but are the just reflecting their parents?

My dad was a career diplomat and completely immersed in politics. He was seconded to the European Brookings in Brussels for years as a political advisor and was a political attaché at various embassies. There were two Labour peers and various other well connected parasites at his funeral last month.

My mother is apolitical though her family are all Irish Republicans with a greater historical attachment to the Armalite than the ballot box. She did have a great track record of voting for every winning PM at General Elections since the 50s until Corbyn ruined her streak.

Sorry to hear that about your father.

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What it's REALLY like to catch coronavirus: First British victim, 25, describes how 'worst disease he ever had' left him sweating, shivering, and struggling to breath as his eyes burned and bones ached

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8075633/First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus.html

Sounds like it's just a flu.

He says it started with a sniffle. Pretty sure we have been told that that is exactly not how new virus starts.

TOPPING said:

Dura_Ace said:

nichomar said:

Interesting to know how many posters on here had parents that were interested in politics, watched the news and reacted to it. We are quick to claim young people just are not interested but are the just reflecting their parents?

My dad was a career diplomat and completely immersed in politics. He was seconded to the European Brookings in Brussels for years as a political advisor and was a political attaché at various embassies. There were two Labour peers and various other well connected parasites at his funeral last month.

My mother is apolitical though her family are all Irish Republicans with a greater historical attachment to the Armalite than the ballot box. She did have a great track record of voting for every winning PM at General Elections since the 50s until Corbyn ruined her streak.

Sorry to hear that about your father.

Thank you. He had been very ill for a very long time but it's still difficult.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/oflynnsocial/status/1235148773149618176

People like her never have a non condescending answer to that question as to do otherwise would involve introspection. I mean even if you believe they are the party of the 1% ruling for the 1% - even if that is absolutely true - they self evidently get support from a lot more than the 1% as well, so it barely matters if that's what they are as a lot of people don't care.

Dura_Ace said:

TOPPING said:

Dura_Ace said:

nichomar said:

Interesting to know how many posters on here had parents that were interested in politics, watched the news and reacted to it. We are quick to claim young people just are not interested but are the just reflecting their parents?

My dad was a career diplomat and completely immersed in politics. He was seconded to the European Brookings in Brussels for years as a political advisor and was a political attaché at various embassies. There were two Labour peers and various other well connected parasites at his funeral last month.

My mother is apolitical though her family are all Irish Republicans with a greater historical attachment to the Armalite than the ballot box. She did have a great track record of voting for every winning PM at General Elections since the 50s until Corbyn ruined her streak.

Sorry to hear that about your father.

Thank you. He had been very ill for a very long time but it's still difficult.

My condolences.

Texas delegates final per CNN:

Biden 111
Sanders 102
Bloomberg 10
Warren 5

So Biden's win only worth a very few vs Sanders.

Bloomberg and Warren were both below 15% statewide but they got a few delegates.

rottenborough said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What it's REALLY like to catch coronavirus: First British victim, 25, describes how 'worst disease he ever had' left him sweating, shivering, and struggling to breath as his eyes burned and bones ached

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8075633/First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus.html

Sounds like it's just a flu.

He says it started with a sniffle. Pretty sure we have been told that that is exactly not how new virus starts.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific and the disease presentation can range from no symptoms (asymptomatic) to severe pneumonia and death. As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptoms include: fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgia or arthralgia (14.8%), chills (11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%).

Nigelb said:

China may well be the first to develop a vaccine....

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74p5y/a-chinese-doctor-injected-herself-with-an-untested-coronavirus-vaccine
Chen Wei is a world-renowned epidemiologist and a major-general in China’s People’s Liberation Army. She was at the forefront of the fight against Ebola and SARS and since mid-January, she has been stationed at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.

On Tuesday, the 54-year-old, along with six members of her team, proved their loyalty to the Communist Party by injecting themselves with a vaccine that hasn’t even been tested on animals, in an apparent bid to show how well China is doing in combatting coronavirus....

Chances of that getting FDA approval......

Crickey, he appears one bright bloke,

Beyond his medical, research and teaching commitments – students are said to regard him as an excellent lecturer – he gained a law degree and an MBA in his spare time.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/04/prof-chris-whitty-the-expert-we-need-in-the-coronavirus-crisis

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this is quite impressive

https://order-order.com/2020/03/04/uk-ranked-best-world-epidemic-response-mitigation/

I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.

It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.

Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.

This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.

From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.

It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.

And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.

They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.

What the hell has happened?

A narrowing of intellectual horizons and ideological dogma since the McCarthy period , supported by a large devout constituency, which was then enhanced and re-nourished during the Reagan period in response to the openings of the 1960s.

I think its more recent. Reagan quipped (at least I think it was a quip) that the most terrifying sentence in the English language was that, "I am from the government and I am here to help." The Republican party in particular seem to regard any government action other than the military to be morally reprehensible and doomed to incompetent failure. They no longer seem to believe in government at all. They certainly don't believe in paying for it. Society collapses in the face of such dogma sold without a control on electoral spending.

But, as I keep pointing out, what alternative do the Democrats off ?

From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.

And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.

The homeless in Los Angeles aren't from Los Angeles, they're from all over the US.

If you try being homeless in Minnesota, you'll freeze to death in winter. If you try being homeless in Nevada, you'll die of heat exhaustion on summer.

Los Angeles has a temperate climate. Why would you be homeless anywhere else?

How about San Francisco then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

China may well be the first to develop a vaccine....

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74p5y/a-chinese-doctor-injected-herself-with-an-untested-coronavirus-vaccine
Chen Wei is a world-renowned epidemiologist and a major-general in China’s People’s Liberation Army. She was at the forefront of the fight against Ebola and SARS and since mid-January, she has been stationed at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.

On Tuesday, the 54-year-old, along with six members of her team, proved their loyalty to the Communist Party by injecting themselves with a vaccine that hasn’t even been tested on animals, in an apparent bid to show how well China is doing in combatting coronavirus....

Chances of that getting FDA approval......

Especially if it works.

MikeL said:

Texas delegates final per CNN:

Biden 111
Sanders 102
Bloomberg 10
Warren 5

So Biden's win only worth a very few vs Sanders.

Bloomberg and Warren were both below 15% statewide but they got a few delegates.

In Maine Sanders and Warren have got 13 delegates combined to 11 for Biden and 0 for Bloomberg.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Maine_Democratic_primary

In Massachusetts Sanders and Warren combined have now got 52 delegates to 36 for Biden and 0 for Bloomberg.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Massachusetts_Democratic_primary

Thus still an outside chance of a Sanders-Warren ticket if Biden does not win a majority of delegates outright by the convention even if he wins the popular vote as he did in Maine and Massachusetts

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this is quite impressive

https://order-order.com/2020/03/04/uk-ranked-best-world-epidemic-response-mitigation/

I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.

It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.

Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.

This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.

From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.

It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.

And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.

They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.

What the hell has happened?

A narrowing of intellectual horizons and ideological dogma since the McCarthy period , supported by a large devout constituency, which was then enhanced and re-nourished during the Reagan period in response to the openings of the 1960s.

I think its more recent. Reagan quipped (at least I think it was a quip) that the most terrifying sentence in the English language was that, "I am from the government and I am here to help." The Republican party in particular seem to regard any government action other than the military to be morally reprehensible and doomed to incompetent failure. They no longer seem to believe in government at all. They certainly don't believe in paying for it. Society collapses in the face of such dogma sold without a control on electoral spending.

But, as I keep pointing out, what alternative do the Democrats off ?

From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.

And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.

The homeless in Los Angeles aren't from Los Angeles, they're from all over the US.

If you try being homeless in Minnesota, you'll freeze to death in winter. If you try being homeless in Nevada, you'll die of heat exhaustion on summer.

Los Angeles has a temperate climate. Why would you be homeless anywhere else?

How about San Francisco then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area

If you're homeless you want to live somewhere:

- not too hot, and not too cold
- with good footfall for begging
- good places to sleep rough

San Fran doesn't have quite as nice weather as LA, but it has better footfall and a good transit system to sleep rough on.

If you were to do a survey of homeless people in California, I reckon they'd come from all over the US. (And a very large number of them would be mentally ill and/or ex-veterans.)

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this is quite impressive

https://order-order.com/2020/03/04/uk-ranked-best-world-epidemic-response-mitigation/

I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.

It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.

Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.

This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.

From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.

It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.

And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.

They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.

What the hell has happened?

A narrowing of intellectual horizons and ideological dogma since the McCarthy period , supported by a large devout constituency, which was then enhanced and re-nourished during the Reagan period in response to the openings of the 1960s.

I think its more recent. Reagan quipped (at least I think it was a quip) that the most terrifying sentence in the English language was that, "I am from the government and I am here to help." The Republican party in particular seem to regard any government action other than the military to be morally reprehensible and doomed to incompetent failure. They no longer seem to believe in government at all. They certainly don't believe in paying for it. Society collapses in the face of such dogma sold without a control on electoral spending.

But, as I keep pointing out, what alternative do the Democrats off ?

From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.

And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.

The homeless in Los Angeles aren't from Los Angeles, they're from all over the US.

If you try being homeless in Minnesota, you'll freeze to death in winter. If you try being homeless in Nevada, you'll die of heat exhaustion on summer.

Los Angeles has a temperate climate. Why would you be homeless anywhere else?

How about San Francisco then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area

If you're homeless you want to live somewhere:

- not too hot, and not too cold
- with good footfall for begging
- good places to sleep rough

San Fran doesn't have quite as nice weather as LA, but it has better footfall and a good transit system to sleep rough on.

If you were to do a survey of homeless people in California, I reckon they'd come from all over the US. (And a very large number of them would be mentally ill and/or ex-veterans.)

Is it illegal to beg in San Francisco? I guess not.

YBarddCwsc said:

TimT said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

https://news.yahoo.com/crisis-yale-professor-said-u-143223472.html

"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."

"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said.
in
Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.

Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.

If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.

What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.

But there is no evidence that millions will die.

We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.

BUT mathematically I am right.

100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%

Exponential maths is scary

You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.

Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.

They do, but for only limited ranges.

I think the argument is quite powerful.

We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.

Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.

Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.

Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.

You know those UN forecasts for world population being more than 10 billion? I always thought something was likely to happen to stop that occurring because it's more people than the planet can cope with. The population increase taking place in Africa at the moment is totally unsustainable IMO, especially in countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo, etc. For instance, Congo had a population of 26 million in 1980. It's now 90 million.

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

China may well be the first to develop a vaccine....

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74p5y/a-chinese-doctor-injected-herself-with-an-untested-coronavirus-vaccine
Chen Wei is a world-renowned epidemiologist and a major-general in China’s People’s Liberation Army. She was at the forefront of the fight against Ebola and SARS and since mid-January, she has been stationed at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.

On Tuesday, the 54-year-old, along with six members of her team, proved their loyalty to the Communist Party by injecting themselves with a vaccine that hasn’t even been tested on animals, in an apparent bid to show how well China is doing in combatting coronavirus....

Chances of that getting FDA approval......

That’s America’s problem...

Just call it a herbal remedy and they won't care.....

Another cruise ship cluster.

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1235358098505728003?s=21

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

DavidL said:

WhisperingOracle said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I know it is Guido but this is quite impressive

https://order-order.com/2020/03/04/uk-ranked-best-world-epidemic-response-mitigation/

I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.

It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.

Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.

This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.

From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.

It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.

And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.

They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.

What the hell has happened?

A narrowing of intellectual horizons and ideological dogma since the McCarthy period , supported by a large devout constituency, which was then enhanced and re-nourished during the Reagan period in response to the openings of the 1960s.

I think its more recent. Reagan quipped (at least I think it was a quip) that the most terrifying sentence in the English language was that, "I am from the government and I am here to help." The Republican party in particular seem to regard any government action other than the military to be morally reprehensible and doomed to incompetent failure. They no longer seem to believe in government at all. They certainly don't believe in paying for it. Society collapses in the face of such dogma sold without a control on electoral spending.

But, as I keep pointing out, what alternative do the Democrats off ?

From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.

And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.

The homeless in Los Angeles aren't from Los Angeles, they're from all over the US.

If you try being homeless in Minnesota, you'll freeze to death in winter. If you try being homeless in Nevada, you'll die of heat exhaustion on summer.

Los Angeles has a temperate climate. Why would you be homeless anywhere else?

How about San Francisco then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_the_San_Francisco_Bay_Area

If you're homeless you want to live somewhere:

- not too hot, and not too cold
- with good footfall for begging
- good places to sleep rough

San Fran doesn't have quite as nice weather as LA, but it has better footfall and a good transit system to sleep rough on.

If you were to do a survey of homeless people in California, I reckon they'd come from all over the US. (And a very large number of them would be mentally ill and/or ex-veterans.)

This suggests the problem is somewhat deeper:

As of 2015, approximately 71% of the city's homeless had housing in the city before becoming homeless, while the remaining 29% came from outside of San Francisco. This figure is up from 61% in 2013. Of that 71%, 51% had lived in San Francisco for less than 10 years before becoming homeless; 11% had only lived in San Francisco for a year before becoming homeless.

San Francisco sounds like an economically brutal place.

williamglenn said:

Another cruise ship cluster.

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1235358098505728003?s=21

“Small cluster”... jeez.
Won’t be for long.

MarqueeMark said:

Chameleon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What it's REALLY like to catch coronavirus: First British victim, 25, describes how 'worst disease he ever had' left him sweating, shivering, and struggling to breath as his eyes burned and bones ached

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8075633/First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus.html

Sounds like it's just a flu.

I've only had flu twice. Proper flu. Lost 36 hours under a fever both times.

So many people say "I had the flu" when they just had a cold. Now they are going to be in for a shock if they get Covid-19.

Just before Christmas, I went on holiday with my wife and children. On the plane ride, my daughter was complaining of being ill. And I basically said "can it, you're fine".

Anyway, three days later I got it, went to the doctor, they gave me the swab and said "influenza"...

I felt mildly guilty at that point.

Not all US efforts are slow or mismanaged:
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1235343464222593024

Quick point of order, I'd really recommend NOT watching Contagion (2011). While the virus in that thing is vastly more dangerous than this, there are quite a number of recognisable parallels.

https://twitter.com/fxhedgers/status/1235358654901014528?s=21

Andy_JS said:

YBarddCwsc said:

TimT said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

IanB2 said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

https://news.yahoo.com/crisis-yale-professor-said-u-143223472.html

"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."

"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said.
in
Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.

Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.

If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.

What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.

But there is no evidence that millions will die.

We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.

BUT mathematically I am right.

100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%

Exponential maths is scary

You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.

Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.

They do, but for only limited ranges.

I think the argument is quite powerful.

We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.

Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.

Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.

Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.

You know those UN forecasts for world population being more than 10 billion? I always thought something was likely to happen to stop that occurring because it's more people than the planet can cope with. The population increase taking place in Africa at the moment is totally unsustainable IMO, especially in countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo, etc. For instance, Congo had a population of 26 million in 1980. It's now 90 million.

But, but, but - in world population terms the exponential is the other way - it's flattening out.
It took 11 years to get from 6 billion to 7 billion.
It'll take 21 to get from 9 billion to 10 billion.
It'll take about 50 to get from 10 billion to 11 billion.
And then it'll stop going up.

We've already passed peak child. There will never be more children in the world than there are now.
Africa is scary, but in almost every African country fertility this year is less than it was last year.
Across almost all of Asia and Latin America, we have gone, in a generation, from fertility rates of 4, 5 and 6 being typical to barely replacement levels. These countries are still growing - but only because their old people aren't dying off as fast as they once did. They won't grow for much longer.

Have a look around the stats here. If, like me, you started learning about geography in the 80s and 90s, when Bangladesh had a fertility rate of about 6, it's astonishing.
https://www.worldometers.info/population/

What is instructive is that most countries seem to share patterns with their neighbours. There are no local factors, apart from how terrible a country is. Terrible countries create lots of people, good countries don't.
Ergo, you can't kill off humanity by making their lives terrible. Only by making their lives so comfortable they can't be bothered to or afford to reproduce.

Once I thought I had the flu, was hospitalised - the Doctors couldn't diagnose it as such... reckoned it was sepsis in the end.
Another time I just had what I'm pretty sure was just the flu. My partner had it too, mucking out the horses was fun mind (It's a task you can't get out of)

Nigelb said:

Informative thread:
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1235331199805149185

Good thread

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1235332854013464576?s=21

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235316980527353859?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1235319875129794561?s=20

Who the hell are the Bloomberg -> Sanders switchers. Simply bizarre

Warren and Sanders if they're going to do a deal need to work out if Warren weirdly enough might be better off staying in the race now; racking up delegates and gifting them to Sanders at the convention.
It would look odd but she effectively hands the votes of her otherwise Biden 2nd choice boss to Sanders with this strat.
OTOH the strat is fraught with the danger of non viability in say Georgia which would improve a Biden win there

Andy_JS said:

No wonder the networks haven't called California yet.


"Millions of uncounted California ballots to shed light on Sanders' future
A big win in the state could help the senator stay afloat. But nothing is certain as counting continues: ‘It’s like a black box’"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/04/california-primary-bernie-sanders-joe-biden

If the exit polls are accurate, California could keep improving for Sanders

Sticking a Tesco bag on your head...that will do it.

https://twitter.com/crimp_it/status/1235249537058406400?s=20

Pulpstar said:

Warren and Sanders if they're going to do a deal need to work out if Warren weirdly enough might be better off staying in the race now; racking up delegates and gifting them to Sanders at the convention.
It would look odd but she effectively hands the votes of her otherwise Biden 2nd choice boss to Sanders with this strat.
OTOH the strat is fraught with the danger of non viability in say Georgia which would improve a Biden win there

I don't think it's at all clear that Warren prefers Sanders to Biden. Nobody who's worked with Sanders seems to like him, and Warren has always been very pragmatic - for instance, she let Hillary have a free run, but apparently insisted on quite detailed concessions on appointments.

The whole argument against Bernie is that he would have a hard time getting elected, and even if he did get elected he'd have a hard time getting the Senate back and wouldn't get much done even if he did. That applies just as strongly if you actually believe in a left-wing agenda as if you don't.

So talented they’ve stopped publishing how many tests they’ve conducted

https://twitter.com/whitehouse/status/1235384966843858944?s=21

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1235398017106223106?s=21

https://twitter.com/UK_CAA/status/1235403570029064199

Flybe -- maybe this (the corona virus pushing industries into trouble) is where the student loan model with income-contingent repayments might be helpful as a way of providing fast government support to tide companies over.

Henrietta2 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1235398017106223106?s=21

Will he say anything that makes it more rather than less likely that he wins a second term? He may be falling into a big hole. Will his shtick even last until the Republican convention in late August? He'll be blaming Hillary Clinton or George Soros next, or perhaps the whole of the UN, or China, or NATO. I'm biased. I'd like to hear from a soft Trumper.

Interesting how he says "false" rather than "fake". He sounds like he's trying to grow up or at least give the impression.

Can't help with the soft trumper, I'm afraid.

It depends on the chosen denominator.

Depending on how it is used or reported, it could be a false - if you mean inaccurate - number. Because it is based on detected cases, and the vast majority of cases will not be detected. I think we can rely on our hysterical media and broadcasters to exaggerate by taking the worst possible scenario quoted (ie upper bound) and making it a headline, and various to attack the Govt on the basis of assuming that is fact.

Consider that China has had 80k cases and 3000 deaths out of a population of 1.4 billion. Which - really and assuming reliable stats etc - is not that many.

On that basis the number of deaths in the UK will be a small fraction of annual deaths from flu.

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

FPT:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Just to underline this difference:


Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

A startling contrast.

Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.

Grim

3.4%

Gosh, it is, isn't it?

Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.

Let's hope so

Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20

The USA seems to be woefully unprepared for this.

Trump won’t be too upset though, those affected are going to be international travellers and those in large cities - all Democrat voters.

WhisperingOracle said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

FPT:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Just to underline this difference:


Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

A startling contrast.

Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.

Grim

3.4%

Gosh, it is, isn't it?

Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.

Let's hope so

Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20

It's worse. Read this thread from Washington:

https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234946039901085697
https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234947271298449409

I know a few doctors out there who are saying very similar stuff, and are very frustrated because they can't get their patients tested, despite them having all the symptoms, and not having the flu.

It's truly a disgrace of a system for what is still the world's most powerful country. Sanders' almost religious fury is absolutely right on the injustice of this - to this extent at least he "gets it".

He has, like many politicians, correctly identified the problem but not the solution.

“Medicare For All” sounds great on a poster, but tort reform, patent reform, banning TV ads for prescription drugs and allowing Medicare to negotiate prices will actually work to give better results.

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

FPT:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Just to underline this difference:


Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

A startling contrast.

Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.

Grim

3.4%

Gosh, it is, isn't it?

Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.

Let's hope so

Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20

The USA seems to be woefully unprepared for this.

Trump won’t be too upset though, those affected are going to be international travellers and those in large cities - all Democrat voters.

I'm with @eadric on this, if Americans (wherever they are located) are scared and feel the government didn't do enough, then Trump will be blamed.

I thought Trump was coasting towards reelection.

Now I think the race is wide open.

Yes, it could well play both ways for the President. It’s also easy to imagine him running with “China Virus” as a campaign slogan though.

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

FPT:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Just to underline this difference:


Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

A startling contrast.

Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.

Grim

3.4%

Gosh, it is, isn't it?

Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.

Let's hope so

Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20

The USA seems to be woefully unprepared for this.

Trump won’t be too upset though, those affected are going to be international travellers and those in large cities - all Democrat voters.

I'm with @eadric on this, if Americans (wherever they are located) are scared and feel the government didn't do enough, then Trump will be blamed.

I thought Trump was coasting towards reelection.

Now I think the race is wide open.

Too hard to call. Surely if foreign viruses are blamed it is as likely voters will be attracted to Trump's build walls and ban flights rhetoric from four years ago. Imo which way voters jump is something to watch out for rather than predict.

I disagree.

It doesn't matter who's ultimately responsible, if you feel scared or worse off, you blame your government.

During the global financial crisis, even those governments that had run sensible, sustainable Economic policies were evicted from office. The voters saw things were worse and blamed those in power.

Even the man who saved the world.

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

FPT:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

Chameleon said:

eadric said:

Just to underline this difference:


Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

A startling contrast.

Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.

Grim

3.4%

Gosh, it is, isn't it?

Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.

Let's hope so

Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20

The USA seems to be woefully unprepared for this.

Trump won’t be too upset though, those affected are going to be international travellers and those in large cities - all Democrat voters.

I'm with @eadric on this, if Americans (wherever they are located) are scared and feel the government didn't do enough, then Trump will be blamed.

I thought Trump was coasting towards reelection.

Now I think the race is wide open.

Too hard to call. Surely if foreign viruses are blamed it is as likely voters will be attracted to Trump's build walls and ban flights rhetoric from four years ago. Imo which way voters jump is something to watch out for rather than predict.

I disagree.

It doesn't matter who's ultimately responsible, if you feel scared or worse off, you blame your government.

During the global financial crisis, even those governments that had run sensible, sustainable Economic policies were evicted from office. The voters saw things were worse and blamed those in power.

The question therefore, is how much do local rather than national politicians get the blame for such things in the USA? If my city, county or state f***s up a disaster response, do I blame the guy in Washington for it?

Dubya got blamed for Katrina. He was just fortunate it happened the summer after his re-election, not before.

Sandpit said:

MattW said:

Henrietta2 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1235398017106223106?s=21

Will he say anything that makes it more rather than less likely that he wins a second term? He may be falling into a big hole. Will his shtick even last until the Republican convention in late August? He'll be blaming Hillary Clinton or George Soros next, or perhaps the whole of the UN, or China, or NATO. I'm biased. I'd like to hear from a soft Trumper.

Interesting how he says "false" rather than "fake". He sounds like he's trying to grow up or at least give the impression.

Can't help with the soft trumper, I'm afraid.

It depends on the chosen denominator.

Depending on how it is used or reported, it could be a false - if you mean inaccurate - number. Because it is based on detected cases, and the vast majority of cases will not be detected. I think we can rely on our hysterical media and broadcasters to exaggerate by taking the worst possible scenario quoted (ie upper bound) and making it a headline, and various to attack the Govt on the basis of assuming that is fact.

Consider that China has had 80k cases and 3000 deaths out of a population of 1.4 billion. Which - really and assuming reliable stats etc - is not that many.

On that basis the number of deaths in the UK will be a small fraction of annual deaths from flu.

3000 deaths, that’s a whole “9/11”.

We have a whole "9/11" of road deaths.

Each and every day.

The world accepts that as the price of mobility.