A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....
I agree. The jump between kids don't get sick from this to kids don't carry or spread this is a remarkable one to take. In China the family was the absolute number one source of infection.
Human beings who are obsessed with Thomas the tank engine...and who constantly like to stick their fingers in their mouths and are adverse to soap...those human beings, you need to isolate from each other...
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
1) Where does the 5000 year number come from? Couldn't the limit of the range just as well be 50,000 years, or 5 million years?
2) If what's growing is basically *information*, I'm not sure you can apply it the same way you would in a physical systen where you eat all the glucose in the petridish or whatever.
On the stock market: our assumption here is that the money is dumb and in denial.
Just to test the counter view, is there a possibility the money is right? WHO say China slowdown in cases is real. One assumes the same is true in Singapore and Vietnam. Could it be that while this is going to be a nasty shock, it’s not as apocalyptically bad as everyone here fears?
[removes party trousers and puts back on the brown slacks]
There are certainly a few best case scenarios where things improve by the early summer, particularly if there is a weather effect (which no one seems to know). But it looks strongly as if, even in these best case scenarios (which are probably as unlikely as the millions of dead), the US is in for a short term shock, regardless. Which surely will send markets down again. Unless there really is the medical cavalry just over yonder hill.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
The problem is the definition of bullying is unclear. I really don’t like all these snonoymous accusations
Do you think there might be good reasons why such allegations, indeed whistleblowing allegations generally, might be made anonymously?
After the event to the media, no.
Through the proper channels I have no problem with
No vaccine is too late.....and we need to take any measure to reduce the spread of this disease...I think we'll be closing schools this time in a fortnight...Question...why do we have to wait a fortnight??
You need to time such measure to get the most benefit, as you don't want to repeat them because they are likely to be less effective the more often you do them. Basically get it right the first time as the second time may not work.
Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?
Where are you flying to (and from)?
Edinburgh to City (at the moment)
It’s senseless to fly that route. The train is nicer and takes the same time once you have faffed around.
It really doesn't. I've done both. If I am coming down for a cricket trip the train is vastly superior and the additional time is neither here nor there. On this occasion we are in a hurry.
Funerals of coronavirus victims could be webcast to mourners to prevent the spread of the virus, with crematoria kept open round the clock to cope with demand
(Nobody said it had to be an exponential increase!)
Even then, though, once you get near the end of it, you have to stop modelling it as a smooth exponential decay and start using a discretised stochastic model for the last few decays. And once that last one has popped, then there's decay no more, of exponential or any other kind...
Clever. You highlight that you can’t keep dividing things just the same as you can’t keep multiplying things.
I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....
A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....
I agree. The jump between kids don't get sick from this to kids don't carry or spread this is a remarkable one to take. In China the family was the absolute number one source of infection.
Human beings who are obsessed with Thomas the tank engine...and who constantly like to stick their fingers in their mouths and are adverse to soap...those human beings, you need to isolate from each other...
I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.
I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.
Absolutely. He seems way too short at 1.19 even if he gets it in July and always looked a shoe-in.
I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.
""I even put some on Bernie today."....as I said, stupidly chasing losses once one is well in the red....
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)
Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
Perhaps they didn't like her being a national security risk running her own foreign policy?
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
She had to resign because she lied to the Prime Minister.
I clicked on that in the hope that it was news about a forthcoming vaccine, or a sudden slide in cases....
Oh well.
Spoke to my friend again today
CDC close to releasing his validated Dx. He has capacity to produce 100k tests a week from Long Island. He already has a vaccine in Phase 1 human trials in Shanghai
How long til it is usable??
The vaccine? He says a few months. His wife (who tends to be more realistic) says 12-18m
But this is something that should be completely safe so in theory you could take the polio approach
Quite an important difference. If it's a few months then it will be available for use in the northern hemisphere this autumn
Spanish flu teaches us that the SECOND wave can be savage, and worse
If it's 12-18 months it's too late
Lets not forget 2 drugs are also already in human trials and if they are shown to be effective they are already been certified and aren't so difficult to produce that they can't be manufactured on a mass scale very quickly.
What would be the “box office” if Eon released Bond on pay per view in April or May I wonder. No doubt less than the $880m that Spectre got. But would that be better than keeping it in the can potentially until mid 2021?
Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
I think we have to wait at least 2 months to see what is what.....
For me the US is really quite worrying....but I hope in two or three months we are back to talking Brexit and whether Kier Starmer has bored everyone to death....
I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.
""I even put some on Bernie today."....as I said, stupidly chasing losses once one is well in the red....
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)
I know, I know. But it annoyed me to have got into the position where I was red on all the front-runners; cunningly I have fought back and am now only red on one of them. That he’s the one who will win is the only remaining obstacle.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
They do, but for only limited ranges.
I think the argument is quite powerful.
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
An interesting neurological interpretation of Dunbar numbers links the exponentials of potential one on one relationships in the group to the brain's capacity at 86 billion neurons. Hence 150 is about the limit of the people we can sustain some sense of where everyone fits in the group.
I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.
It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.
Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.
This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.
From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.
It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.
And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.
They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.
What the hell has happened?
A narrowing of intellectual horizons and ideological dogma since the McCarthy period , supported by a large devout constituency, which was then enhanced and re-nourished during the Reagan period in response to the openings of the 1960s.
I think its more recent. Reagan quipped (at least I think it was a quip) that the most terrifying sentence in the English language was that, "I am from the government and I am here to help." The Republican party in particular seem to regard any government action other than the military to be morally reprehensible and doomed to incompetent failure. They no longer seem to believe in government at all. They certainly don't believe in paying for it. Society collapses in the face of such dogma sold without a control on electoral spending.
But, as I keep pointing out, what alternative do the Democrats off ?
From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.
And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.
Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
I think it probably just shows that their health care systems are very good and can provide good care when there are small numbers (and probably quite a bit of luck)...perhaps also that old people in poor health don't go on Easter skiing trips to Italy or long distance flights to China.
Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
I think we have to wait at least 2 months to see what is what.....
For me the US is really quite worrying....but I hope in two or three months we are back to talking Brexit and whether Kier Starmer has bored everyone to death....
Lets hope its just boredom that is killing people....
Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
He was obviously considering caveating the 1% figure. I thought it could be to point out that the overall rate is hardly relevant given the age variation in severity.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
Perhaps they didn't like her being a national security risk running her own foreign policy?
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
She had to resign because she lied to the Prime Minister.
Twice.
yes twice claiming that she was not running her own foreign policy...
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
He was obviously considering caveating the 1% figure. I thought it could be to point out that the overall rate is hardly relevant given the age variation in severity.
Exactly, I would sigh for the same reason. In many ways, it is irrelevant at this stage. We know it is a very dangerous disease for some people in high risk groups. Does knowing that it is 1.25% or 0.86% change anything about the way we respond to it?
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
1) Where does the 5000 year number come from? Couldn't the limit of the range just as well be 50,000 years, or 5 million years?
Enrico Fermi.
Suppose a technological exponentiating civilisation lasts 5 million years. It will have mastered space travel a hundredth the speed of light (quite modest). So it will spread 50,000 light years. That is a lot of stars.
We would know about them.
The era of rapid technological growth cannot be anything like 5 million years. Even 50,000 years gives 500 light years -- plenty of stars.
I'm so tempted to pull £4k out of my ISA to superscoop another £100 from Hillary.
I'd whack it out of your ISA...just because in a few weeks your ISA (if FTSE linked) will be worth a lot less...
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
Trouble is it's already my biggest exposure yet on a bet and I'm not really that comfortable with more.
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
I'm really fucked already on US 2020- if I carry on I'll only start to stupidly chase losses and make things worse....Biden was a killer blow to the proverbial yesterday....
Me too. I even put some more on Bernie today, just because the odds made it cheap to get rid of the red on him. I am green on everyone now except Biden. There’s always a chance.
""I even put some on Bernie today."....as I said, stupidly chasing losses once one is well in the red....
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)
I know, I know. But it annoyed me to have got into the position where I was red on all the front-runners; cunningly I have fought back and am now only red on one of them. That he’s the one who will win is the only remaining obstacle.
A cunning strategy indeedy.....
And... on Betfair...it does look pretty to have so much green on an open market....so compliments on achieving that....
Is the fact that there haven't been any deaths so far in north-west European countries a cause for optimism, or is it not scientifically relevant? (Ireland, UK, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg).
1. There are very few cases, so each case can receive top notch care.
2. The patients were all (or nearly all) diagnosed within the past week, coronavirus isn't a quick killer in general, especially in somewhat healthy people.
3. The sort of people with substantial health difficulties that would be killed very quickly by coronavirus generally aren't flying and galavanting around the ski slopes or northern Italy.
Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
I don't do well on US elections. They never choose correctly!
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last meal
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
It is 1% excluding the 4 worst-affected countries.
Sounds like me a decade ago trying to spin my school report to my parents. "Well erm, take out Classics and Latin which I'm dropping soon, and then bear in mind that Biology was a really tricky exam that everyone struggled in, so that shouldn't be counted. Overall I averaged 70%, isn't that amazing!"
The high number of critical cases overwhelming the healthcare system causing a high mortality rate is a feature of the virus.
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
In Fish and Chip News:
Fish and chip shop owner tells of coronavirus self-isolation
Fish and chip reopens after coronavirus advice
Westhoughton Chinese chip shop closes amid Coronavirus fears
A CHIP shop owner who fears that he may contract coronavirus has started wearing masks while serving customers.
Worried about coronavirus after holiday in China, chip shop owners temporarily close up
Meanwhile in Australia condoms are selling out after a journalist advised people to use one on their finger to push lift buttons and the like. According to The Sun.
Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
I don't do well on US elections. They never choose correctly!
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...
Funnily enough my biggest single political bet win was Biden 2012 VEEP pick... And now he looks to be possibly my heaviest loss....I honestly could not see how he could get chosen....
And that comrade says it all about the vagaries of betting....
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
The problem is the definition of bullying is unclear. I really don’t like all these snonoymous accusations
Do you think there might be good reasons why such allegations, indeed whistleblowing allegations generally, might be made anonymously?
After the event to the media, no.
Through the proper channels I have no problem with
You might want to look at how allegations about anti-semitism within the Labour Party came out to understand why your idealised view is simply not how people who feel upset and attacked behave in practice. Believe me, whistleblowers do not behave in the neat and tidy way that procedures, even when they exist, assume.
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
He was obviously considering caveating the 1% figure. I thought it could be to point out that the overall rate is hardly relevant given the age variation in severity.
Then he remembered the Newsnight audience demographics?
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last meal
lol. What is your problem with mussels and chips?! Simple, delicious, cheap
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.
Ok, so I genuinely lol'ed at that one!
Actually, that's quite a good discussion. What would be your last meal?
For me it would definitely be seafood.
Within that, it would probably be fantastic native British oysters, with excellent sourdough, or maybe a top notch fish stew, like they do in Sheekeys or Bentleys
I'm a sucker for a Beef Wellington. Starter of a trio of diced tartares (tuna, salmon, steak), first main of moules frites with shoestring fries, then the Beef Wellington.
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last meal
lol. What is your problem with mussels and chips?! Simple, delicious, cheap
Top choice. Then again I'd have moules mariniere over fish and chips any day.
Someone asked me on here a few months ago for my expert opinion (lol) on who the Dem nominee would be and I said Biden. I wish I'd put my money where my mouth is...
I don't do well on US elections. They never choose correctly!
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...
Funnily enough my biggest single political bet win was Biden 2012 VEEP pick... And now he looks to be possibly my heaviest loss....I honestly could not see how he could get chosen....
And that comrade says it all about the vagaries of betting....
I've had some very dark nights of the soul on Sanders, who I am exceedingly red on. But I have kept the faith, just, that the Dems aren't mad enough to nominate someone who would obviously lose to Trump before the first vote is even counted.
This writer is using the Diamond Princess to support the argument that CFR is exaggerated. I'd love to believe this is true but there are obvious doubts.
Here is just one: everyone on this ship was disembarked by March 1, and then separated and isolated, preventing further infection.
I look forward to the space ships which can ferry us all off planet earth, and isolate us on other planets.
He says Diamond Princess has 6 deaths out of 706 infected, for a CFR of 0.85%, but ignores that 35 are seriously or critically ill (per Worldometer). Seriously and critically aren't defined, but only one quarter of that lot have to die to bring CFR up to 2%.
Tragic hesitation from the government medical expert on Newsnight, when asked the mortality rate: "is it still 1%.....?"
He paused for several seconds, heaved a huge sigh, then reluctantly said Yes.
He knows this is a lie. The WHO reckons the mortality rate is nearer to 3.4%, on the data we have now (which is all we can use)
DO NOT LIE TO THE PEOPLE. It's so counter-productive, in the end.
Mate, STFU about Coronavirus tonight please.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
@eadric wonders whether the discussion has moved onto last meals.
And...he came back with mussels and chips...yuck.....I suppose if you ate that death would provide some kind of relief from PTSD....so good choice maybe for a last meal
lol. What is your problem with mussels and chips?! Simple, delicious, cheap
Comments
One of my main funds seems to have gone down about 12% last week.....
2) If what's growing is basically *information*, I'm not sure you can apply it the same way you would in a physical systen where you eat all the glucose in the petridish or whatever.
PS The premise may be pants: https://blog.mattedgar.com/2011/09/16/the-pace-of-change/
It's a tragedy.
Through the proper channels I have no problem with
I may shove on another£500 but not £4k
Funerals of coronavirus victims could be webcast to mourners to prevent the spread of the virus, with crematoria kept open round the clock to cope with demand
Sounds disgusting.
Night all.
What the fuck does the Chair of the BMA know about it though.
I wish we could revert back to the halcyon levity of Brexit politics when things didn't matter that much......
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-51734115
He'd better make it to the 7th May.
He should drift a tiny bit if Warren pulls out.
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
https://twitter.com/sbergwijn_/status/1235331816946577411?s=21
https://twitter.com/joefreedman_joe/status/1235332825467015172?s=21
I really do think that no one on this site has a handle on US politics.....it's like a fucking tribe of blind folded badgers dispensing worldly wisdom.....US 2020 has been a low point on this site for making money this far...and I'm out (well for today)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Twice.
For me the US is really quite worrying....but I hope in two or three months we are back to talking Brexit and whether Kier Starmer has bored everyone to death....
From homelessness to health the failings of the Democrat Pacific coast states are pretty shocking.
And without the excuses of the Deep South, Appalachia or sparsely populated Plains states.
We're doing FISH AND CHIPS.
What's your favourite?
Boo.
No need to shout and to be honest I trust him before your goodself
Suppose a technological exponentiating civilisation lasts 5 million years. It will have mastered space travel a hundredth the speed of light (quite modest). So it will spread 50,000 light years. That is a lot of stars.
We would know about them.
The era of rapid technological growth cannot be anything like 5 million years. Even 50,000 years gives 500 light years -- plenty of stars.
Enrico wins again.
And... on Betfair...it does look pretty to have so much green on an open market....so compliments on achieving that....
1. There are very few cases, so each case can receive top notch care.
2. The patients were all (or nearly all) diagnosed within the past week, coronavirus isn't a quick killer in general, especially in somewhat healthy people.
3. The sort of people with substantial health difficulties that would be killed very quickly by coronavirus generally aren't flying and galavanting around the ski slopes or northern Italy.
I did make a big on Biden in Mass and Minn last night but trivial amounts.
I am in the red about £100 on Biden. I haven't a scooby on running mate. It always seems to be someone I have never heard of.
A gritty and not very pretty FA cup win for the Foxes. Drawn Chelsea in the quarters again. We have lost 3 times to them in the QF this century. So it goes...
Not particularly British though.
The high number of critical cases overwhelming the healthcare system causing a high mortality rate is a feature of the virus.
Fish and chip shop owner tells of coronavirus self-isolation
Fish and chip reopens after coronavirus advice
Westhoughton Chinese chip shop closes amid Coronavirus fears
A CHIP shop owner who fears that he may contract coronavirus has started wearing masks while serving customers.
Worried about coronavirus after holiday in China, chip shop owners temporarily close up
Meanwhile in Australia condoms are selling out after a journalist advised people to use one on their finger to push lift buttons and the like. According to The Sun.
And now he looks to be possibly my heaviest loss....I honestly could not see how he could get chosen....
And that comrade says it all about the vagaries of betting....
We got the US wrong because no-one thought they would decide that the antidote to one senile old fart is another senile old fart.
Let's hope it continues that way.