It should be up to the Foreign Office to advise if they should go or not. They are just advising to avoid the 10 small towns.
Let me share just a few recent occurrences
1 new case in Romania. Patient recently returned from Italy. (Source)
32 new cases in the United Kingdom. Twenty-nine patients have recently traveled from countries with outbreaks of coronavirus. Three other patients contracted the virus in the UK. (Source) ( a bunch from Italy)
10 new cases in Belgium. Nine of the new patients recently returned from Italy.
1 new case in Portugal. Patient recently traveled from Italy. (
2 new cases in Iceland. Both patients recently traveled from Italy. (
2 new cases in Sweden. One traveled from Iran and the other from Italy.
All of these are from just TODAY
Still think its ok?
I have no idea if its ok. I doubt anyone really does including yourself. There are too many unknowns. The people best placed to make the decisions are the government and it should be communicated via the Foreign Office travel advice system that has worked for decades.
I wasn't being rude to you. I actually thought I was agreeing with you as it sounded like you'd foresaw Sanders plan was doomed. You never even said what I was saying. It's Sanders and his supporters who were delusional enough to think he was winning a Youthquake. I never thought you were saying that, in fact I don't recall speaking to you much since the election and kudos to you for coming back.
A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Yes, we have to think in natural epidemiological units, not geopolitical lines. It is precisely for this reason that - despite their political differences - Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian public health officials work together on infectious disease response, as they all form part of the same epidemiological unit for most human and animal communicable diseases.
I thought usually they were de facto grounded anyway because nobody would give them credit for fuel, but praps on those short routes they carry more than one journey's worth.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
But not necessarily appropriate as SK is now showing (as I predicted). Even starting a way behind it is possible to catch up, contain, isolate and treat if you make a big enough effort. The worry in the US is that the muppet in charge seems reluctant to recognise the need for such an effort. And muppet 2 thinks the answer is a prayer.
I thought usually they were de facto grounded anyway because nobody would give them credit for fuel, but praps on those short routes they carry more than one journey's worth.
Doubling rate seems to be 5-6 days. Not 2-3. It is possible to somewhat catch up to this, but let it fester for too long and it'll double quicker than you can test. If you have 100,000 cases, and say a 10% successful test rate (accounting for a relatively low overall rate of infection), you need to be testing 130,000 people a day in order to keep the number of undetected cases static.
If the US is at 200,000 by the end of next week they'd need to be doing near enough 2,000,000 tests a week to start making ground against the virus. Considering that they're saying that they'll be able to do 1,000,000 by the end of the month (and that looks very optimistic/ an outright lie), I can't see the SK approach working in the USA.
I thought usually they were de facto grounded anyway because nobody would give them credit for fuel, but praps on those short routes they carry more than one journey's worth.
They've pulled flights at Manchester that were taxiing down the runway, so it isn't a lack of fuel.
Good to see that the website was still linking through Skyscanner a few minutes ago, to take money for flights that will never operate.
Latest spain figures 228 majority in madrid can’t remember the opening figure but it still looks like 90% are directly related to travel the majority of which originated in Italy. 3 cases in school children but not serious around 10% needing ICU care and 25% hospitalization.
Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?
Catch the sleeper instead. 73 to Waverley for a 92 forward. What's not to like?
Plus a reduced carbon impact.
Really takes too long. I prefer the train but we have a prize giving in Dundee in the morning and need to be in London for a sharp start the next morning. Flying is all that works (although I prefer trains).
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
I assure you that we will know whether millions have died in the US, or not. They may not release the numbers as they go along, but this is not the famine in the Ukraine; the US is an open society where almost everything comes out in the end.
I thought usually they were de facto grounded anyway because nobody would give them credit for fuel, but praps on those short routes they carry more than one journey's worth.
Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?
Catch the sleeper instead. 73 to Waverley for a 92 forward. What's not to like?
Plus a reduced carbon impact.
Really takes too long. I prefer the train but we have a prize giving in Dundee in the morning and need to be in London for a sharp start the next morning. Flying is all that works (although I prefer trains).
If you catch the Lowlander from Edinburgh rather than the Highlander from Dundee then I think this gets into Euston by 07.30
I clicked on that in the hope that it was news about a forthcoming vaccine, or a sudden slide in cases....
Oh well.
Spoke to my friend again today
CDC close to releasing his validated Dx. He has capacity to produce 100k tests a week from Long Island. He already has a vaccine in Phase 1 human trials in Shanghai
I thought usually they were de facto grounded anyway because nobody would give them credit for fuel, but praps on those short routes they carry more than one journey's worth.
Be an interesting court case for someone tomorrow.
Contractual lien for unpaid landing charges.
Probably leased planes though. Lots of interesting issues for fees to be earned on.
Liens attach to the aircraft. Eurocontrol has a fleet lien. There will be few fees for lawyers (genuinely). Default notice, negotiate with administrators, hand over cash, ferry.
A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
I assure you that we will know whether millions have died in the US, or not. They may not release the numbers as they go along, but this is not the famine in the Ukraine; the US is an open society where almost everything comes out in the end.
Obviously it'll slow down at some point. However the point where the virus is slowing it's spread because it's running out of people makes it all a bit irrelevant. If 30% of the population is infected then obviously the R0 will drop and progression will slow. However then we have 3% of the population needing ICU care.
Yes, the US Govt doesn't have the control to do a massive coverup.
Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?
Catch the sleeper instead. 73 to Waverley for a 92 forward. What's not to like?
Plus a reduced carbon impact.
Really takes too long. I prefer the train but we have a prize giving in Dundee in the morning and need to be in London for a sharp start the next morning. Flying is all that works (although I prefer trains).
BA and Virgin both operate the EDI-LCY route, but I find the flight times poor for work purposes - I normally fly into Stansted on Easyjet or Gatwick on BA, then get in on the train.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
Would that be anger management management courses.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
I'm sorry but the US being second makes that table entirely without credibility. I would have them somewhere in the mid 140s.
It was done months back. The US was prepared but did SFA when the time came.
Ah, right. Ready on paper. In fairness so far the NHS has walked the walk but Singapore (who may have a climate advantage) must surely get the gold star.
This actually highlights an interesting flaw in the assessment, which overlooks the cultural and system impediments to effective deployment.
From a technical perspective, the US ticks all the boxes - medical expertise, equipment, technology, ability to detect, resources to mobilise rapidly, etc.
It’s just that - leaving aside the moron who happens to be in charge - many human and cultural factors prevented the US from responding. Such as cultural hostility to government intervention, isolationism and a tendency to think the worlds problems can’t reach America, a health system set up for competition not co-operation, minimal free healthcare creating disincentives for people to get tested, lack of sick pay discouraging people from self isolation.
And yet we are talking about the country whose logistical genius won WW2. The achievements were endless.
They won the battle of the Atlantic by building ships faster than the German U boats could sink them. One of my favourites is the Germans, who had been living on rats, in Monte Casino, who in a counter attack took some US trenches and found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. They surrendered.
What the hell has happened?
I’m reading Gen Marshall’s biography. He was a rare genius.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
I assure you that we will know whether millions have died in the US, or not. They may not release the numbers as they go along, but this is not the famine in the Ukraine; the US is an open society where almost everything comes out in the end.
No, you don't understand. We will never know whether there are 100,000 cases in America RIGHT NOW, because the doctor is speculating (as he admits)
I sincerely hope he is wrong.
If 100,000 is the upper end, what’s the lower credible figure. Say 1,000. On the basis that (strangely, if you ask me) countries seem to be finding surprisingly many people infected who have travelled in Italy and surprisingly few at home.
The end state in the former case will be very different from the latter case. And therefore we’ll know at some point, by reverse deduction.
Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?
Catch the sleeper instead. 73 to Waverley for a 92 forward. What's not to like?
Plus a reduced carbon impact.
Really takes too long. I prefer the train but we have a prize giving in Dundee in the morning and need to be in London for a sharp start the next morning. Flying is all that works (although I prefer trains).
If you catch the Lowlander from Edinburgh rather than the Highlander from Dundee then I think this gets into Euston by 07.30
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
But not necessarily appropriate as SK is now showing (as I predicted). Even starting a way behind it is possible to catch up, contain, isolate and treat if you make a big enough effort. The worry in the US is that the muppet in charge seems reluctant to recognise the need for such an effort. And muppet 2 thinks the answer is a prayer.
I hadn't noticed today's slowdown in South Korea. Hurray. But it is too soon to be truly confident. There was a slowdown two days ago, then it jumped again
Its far too soon for there to be a slow down and they still have a backlog but exponential growth has stopped. I suspect we will see new cases in the low hundreds for a few days yet as they process the backlog and then a more substantial drop off.
One of the things that is interesting about this is that so many virologists are very good at producing mathematical models of the disease but apparently very poor in interpreting the capacity restraints/ inclination to test. The link between new cases and actual spread is nowhere near as casual as they and their models assume.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
It's the most gammon-triggering Department in Whitehall, just by virtue of existing. Why are we sending money to India when it has its own space program? is a question often posed by Guidoites.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She probably got slightly peeved when a civil servant raised an eyebrow to Priti's idea of donating the overseas aid budget to the Israeli military.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
Be an interesting court case for someone tomorrow.
Contractual lien for unpaid landing charges.
Probably leased planes though. Lots of interesting issues for fees to be earned on.
I have on my shelves The Scottish Students' Songbook of 1891 which includes a ditty entitled "Give a Fee (a song for young Advocates)". Do you know it?
Ok so Flybe flights are a gonner. Which airline do I buy my replacement tickets with? What airlines are still likely to be flying in mid June?
Edit and what are the odds on UCL cancelling their June open day?
Catch the sleeper instead. 73 to Waverley for a 92 forward. What's not to like?
Plus a reduced carbon impact.
Really takes too long. I prefer the train but we have a prize giving in Dundee in the morning and need to be in London for a sharp start the next morning. Flying is all that works (although I prefer trains).
If you catch the Lowlander from Edinburgh rather than the Highlander from Dundee then I think this gets into Euston by 07.30
Don't expect to sleep much though (sadly)
Yeah we are not doing that with a teenage son and then running around London all day.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
Even if they do - money in a bank at 1% interest compounded annually is growing exponentially, so it's not always as exciting as it sounds.
Obviously it'll slow down at some point. However the point where the virus is slowing it's spread because it's running out of people makes it all a bit irrelevant. If 30% of the population is infected then obviously the R0 will drop and progression will slow.
R0 is the "basic reproduction number". It can (and does) change both over space and time for a whole bunch of reasons, but not the one you propose, since by definition it tells you on average how many people an infectious individual will infect in a population that's totally susceptible.
What you're talking about is the change in the net reproduction number, Rn, which takes into account the fact that not all of the population is susceptible (particularly once the epidemic has grown).
The formula is Rn equals R0 times s, where s is the proportion of the population that are susceptible.
A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
They do, but for only limited ranges.
I think the argument is quite powerful.
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
Be an interesting court case for someone tomorrow.
Contractual lien for unpaid landing charges.
Probably leased planes though. Lots of interesting issues for fees to be earned on.
I have on my shelves The Scottish Students' Songbook of 1891 which includes a ditty entitled "Give a Fee (a song for young Advocates)". Do you know it?
No never heard of it. Some things haven't changed much though.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....
I agree. The jump between kids don't get sick from this to kids don't carry or spread this is a remarkable one to take. In China the family was the absolute number one source of infection.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
Perhaps they didn't like her being a national security risk running her own foreign policy?
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
They do, but for only limited ranges.
Pandemics are surely a classic example of exponential growth in the real world
eg the Black Death.
I am right now reading a very good history of it, this one
It started with some coughing peasant in, uh, China (or close), then within about 10 years it had infected maybe 30-40% of the world. That's quite exponential
Yes, but at some point they cease to grow exponentially - it doesn't go on forever. Living systems exist within tight physical constraints which introduce non-linearity at some point.
I clicked on that in the hope that it was news about a forthcoming vaccine, or a sudden slide in cases....
Oh well.
Spoke to my friend again today
CDC close to releasing his validated Dx. He has capacity to produce 100k tests a week from Long Island. He already has a vaccine in Phase 1 human trials in Shanghai
How long til it is usable??
The vaccine? He says a few months. His wife (who tends to be more realistic) says 12-18m
But this is something that should be completely safe so in theory you could take the polio approach
Be an interesting court case for someone tomorrow.
Contractual lien for unpaid landing charges.
Probably leased planes though. Lots of interesting issues for fees to be earned on.
I have on my shelves The Scottish Students' Songbook of 1891 which includes a ditty entitled "Give a Fee (a song for young Advocates)". Do you know it?
O listen of Scotch and Civil Law Doctors all, Solicitors, Agents, Accountants, to me; O listen, of strifes and of lawsuit concoctors all, And give to a poor starving lawyer a fee,
Give a fee, Give a fee, Give a fee! O give to a poor starving lawyer a fee.
The soldier and sailor they dash on and splash on, And, sure of their pay, scour the land and the sea-, But we peak and pine here, and long, long years pass on, Before our eyes blink at our first guinea fee.
Give a fee, etc.
The Church is an Eden of violets and roses, The Bishop its Adam, from drudgery free; The big burly priest on his soft down reposes, While we must still fag on, and cry, “Give a fee!”
Give a fee, etc.
The quack he sells wholesale his pills universal, And straight waxes richer than sagest M. D.-, But we still must con o’er the same dull rehearsal, And leave one or two old stagers to pocket the fee.
Give a fee, etc.
Here sit I, all frozen; my youth’s glowing visions. See-saw like a Chinese joss or a Turkish Cadi; I seek for no learning beyond the decisions, And my soul’s proud ideal is a bright guinea fee. Give a fee, Give a fee!
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
They do, but for only limited ranges.
Pandemics are surely a classic example of exponential growth in the real world
eg the Black Death.
I am right now reading a very good history of it, this one
It started with some coughing peasant in, uh, China (or close), then within about 10 years it had infected maybe 30-40% of the world. That's quite exponential
So you are sitting on this creepy island surrounded by boxes of latex gloves whilst reading a history of the Black Death after a lunchtime on the booze- and you want us to believe that your mental state is objective and rational?
A few Coronavirus thoughts and learning for the last couple of days:
1. Thanks @NickPalmer for the Vox article yesterday. Main take aways - the Chinese numbers are thought broadly credible and, one they got in gear, contact tracing was their best weapon. Happily something the UK seems to bed doing well, fingers crossed.
2. The Italian numbers for their local outbreak are broadly in line with Chinese numbers for a bigger area. Having looked at lots of charts, it suggests to me that we are 5-12 days from the peak death rate of the Lodi centred epidemic and it has run 15-25% of its course.
3. I'm not clear how Italy is reporting case by province. Exponenting case numbers exist beyond the current or proposed extension of the red zone - I don't know, in Milan's figures, for example, whether they are (a) reporting case numbers from red zone patients who are in Milanese hospitals (b) seeing cases of Milanese who have had contact with the Lodigiani &c, or (c) there is now local transmission in areas of Milan. Obviously this has great bearing on the likely course of the outbreak beyond the Lodi core.
4. Kids look, not only to not get that ill, but to barely contract the virus when in contact. Even if things are bad, closing all schools across Italy, over the heads of the Civil Protection experts, seems like a misstep.
5. We really should not be thinking of nations as having the virus, rather putting specific rings on maps for areas with local transmission, areas at high risk of local transmission, and other areas - the WHO template agreed yesterday with Italy was a good step.
Children may not be able to catch it but their minders, support staff and grand support staff certainly do. Schools must a superb way of amplifying infection rates in a community.
I agree with that - but in that respect a school is not that much of a special case compared with any other workplace. I'd have understood closing schools across the orange zone (about 1/3 of Italy, 20 million population in total) but across the South where there are few cases? This is what I mean when I say national borders are the wrong geography - specifying zones then redrawing diligently as soon as new facts emerge is better. And it sounds like the expert advice concurred.
Closing schools has a potentially massive effect both on healthcare - health workers have children that suddenly need looking after - and the economy. It surely should be avoided if at all possible.
It's the single, most effective method to slow down the disease...children are such grubby little disease spreading (admittedly adorable) monkeys....
I agree. The jump between kids don't get sick from this to kids don't carry or spread this is a remarkable one to take. In China the family was the absolute number one source of infection.
Human beings who are obsessed with Thomas the tank engine...and who constantly like to stick their fingers in their mouths and are adverse to soap...those human beings, you need to isolate from each other...
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
"It is well within the realm of possibility that there are 100,000 people infected with this right now in the United States," Forman said. "Healthcare providers may be being exposed, other patients may be being exposed, and until you can give confidence to people about those answers, we are in a crisis here."
"It wouldn't surprise me if we were to learn that most major hospitals have coronavirus patients in them right now," he said. in Forman said in a tweet on Sunday that the number of confirmed cases in the US would "explode" in the coming days as existing cases are documented.
Quick reminder to America, if you healthcare providers are all sick, there is no one left to care. Mortality up.
If America has 100,000 cases NOW, that probably means millions of Americans are going to die, whatever they do from this moment on.
What we were saying about the unreliability and partiality of the Chinese data, we will soon be saying about the US.
But there is no evidence that millions will die.
We will never know the answer, because we will never know if that doctor is right, because America is such a shambles on this issue.
BUT mathematically I am right.
100,000 cases is huge. And this thing grows exponentially, doubling every 2-3 days in Europe (which has better healthcare). On that basis 100,000 cases becomes 51 million cases within about three weeks. = a million dead on a CFR of 2%
Exponential maths is scary
You are not even right on the maths, since exponential growth clearly can’t go on for ever in a finite system (and hence why roulette tables have a maximum allowable bet). It will slow down at some point, and neither you nor your sidekick on the numbers have given any thought to that part of the equation.
Exponentials never happen in the real world. Something always intervenes.
They do, but for only limited ranges.
Pandemics are surely a classic example of exponential growth in the real world
eg the Black Death.
I am right now reading a very good history of it, this one
It started with some coughing peasant in, uh, China (or close), then within about 10 years it had infected maybe 30-40% of the world. That's quite exponential
Yes, but at some point they cease to grow exponentially - it doesn't go on forever. Living systems exist within tight physical constraints which introduce non-linearity at some point.
Uh, yeah. I am aware that they must run out.
For diseases, they run out of people to infect, the corridors of infection are closed, they mutate into less aggressive forms, they encounter immunity, it's not in the genetic interest of the virus to kill all possible hosts.
I have read my Dawkins, thankyou.
Or, more simply, people change their behaviour, and the exponential growth is halted.
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
Perhaps they didn't like her being a national security risk running her own foreign policy?
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
On the stock market: our assumption here is that the money is dumb and in denial.
Just to test the counter view, is there a possibility the money is right? WHO say China slowdown in cases is real. One assumes the same is true in Singapore and Vietnam. Could it be that while this is going to be a nasty shock, it’s not as apocalyptically bad as everyone here fears?
[removes party trousers and puts back on the brown slacks]
Be an interesting court case for someone tomorrow.
Contractual lien for unpaid landing charges.
Probably leased planes though. Lots of interesting issues for fees to be earned on.
I have on my shelves The Scottish Students' Songbook of 1891 which includes a ditty entitled "Give a Fee (a song for young Advocates)". Do you know it?
O listen of Scotch and Civil Law Doctors all, Solicitors, Agents, Accountants, to me; O listen, of strifes and of lawsuit concoctors all, And give to a poor starving lawyer a fee,
Give a fee, Give a fee, Give a fee! O give to a poor starving lawyer a fee.
The soldier and sailor they dash on and splash on, And, sure of their pay, scour the land and the sea-, But we peak and pine here, and long, long years pass on, Before our eyes blink at our first guinea fee.
Give a fee, etc.
The Church is an Eden of violets and roses, The Bishop its Adam, from drudgery free; The big burly priest on his soft down reposes, While we must still fag on, and cry, “Give a fee!”
Give a fee, etc.
The quack he sells wholesale his pills universal, And straight waxes richer than sagest M. D.-, But we still must con o’er the same dull rehearsal, And leave one or two old stagers to pocket the fee.
Give a fee, etc.
Here sit I, all frozen; my youth’s glowing visions. See-saw like a Chinese joss or a Turkish Cadi; I seek for no learning beyond the decisions, And my soul’s proud ideal is a bright guinea fee. Give a fee, Give a fee!
(Nobody said it had to be an exponential increase!)
Even then, though, once you get near the end of it, you have to stop modelling it as a smooth exponential decay and start using a discretised stochastic model for the last few decays. And once that last one has popped, then there's decay no more, of exponential or any other kind...
I clicked on that in the hope that it was news about a forthcoming vaccine, or a sudden slide in cases....
Oh well.
Spoke to my friend again today
CDC close to releasing his validated Dx. He has capacity to produce 100k tests a week from Long Island. He already has a vaccine in Phase 1 human trials in Shanghai
How long til it is usable??
The vaccine? He says a few months. His wife (who tends to be more realistic) says 12-18m
But this is something that should be completely safe so in theory you could take the polio approach
Quite an important difference. If it's a few months then it will be available for use in the northern hemisphere this autumn
Spanish flu teaches us that the SECOND wave can be savage, and worse
If it's 12-18 months it's too late
No vaccine is too late.....and we need to take any measure to reduce the spread of this disease...I think we'll be closing schools this time in a fortnight...Question...why do we have to wait a fortnight??
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
The problem is the definition of bullying is unclear. I really don’t like all these snonoymous accusations
On the stock market: our assumption here is that the money is dumb and in denial.
Just to test the counter view, is there a possibility the money is right? WHO say China slowdown in cases is real. One assumes the same is true in Singapore and Vietnam. Could it be that while this is going to be a nasty shock, it’s not as apocalyptically bad as everyone here fears?
[removes party trousers and puts back on the brown slacks]
On the stock market: our assumption here is that the money is dumb and in denial.
Just to test the counter view, is there a possibility the money is right? WHO say China slowdown in cases is real. One assumes the same is true in Singapore and Vietnam. Could it be that while this is going to be a nasty shock, it’s not as apocalyptically bad as everyone here fears?
[removes party trousers and puts back on the brown slacks]
You know, I could see myself bursting with fury at civil servants at the Home Office. But DfID? That's a much more sedate place concerned with funding (or not funding) projects. It suggests that Ms Patel might want to take some management training courses.
She went in with a mission to shake up Dfid. I suspect they didn’t like their comfortable certainties being challenged
There's never a good excuse for bullying, if that's what it's proven to be.
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
The problem is the definition of bullying is unclear. I really don’t like all these snonoymous accusations
Do you think there might be good reasons why such allegations, indeed whistleblowing allegations generally, might be made anonymously?
Comments
https://twitter.com/thestalwart/status/1235307319979888640?s=21
https://twitter.com/ConnorGillies/status/1235313173571526660
Then taxi it.
https://twitter.com/HollyHNews/status/1235305409965182977
If the US is at 200,000 by the end of next week they'd need to be doing near enough 2,000,000 tests a week to start making ground against the virus. Considering that they're saying that they'll be able to do 1,000,000 by the end of the month (and that looks very optimistic/ an outright lie), I can't see the SK approach working in the USA.
Good to see that the website was still linking through Skyscanner a few minutes ago, to take money for flights that will never operate.
Plus a reduced carbon impact.
Italy. 3 cases in school children but not serious around 10% needing ICU care and 25% hospitalization.
I assure you that we will know whether millions have died in the US, or not. They may not release the numbers as they go along, but this is not the famine in the Ukraine; the US is an open society where almost everything comes out in the end.
CDC close to releasing his validated Dx. He has capacity to produce 100k tests a week from Long Island. He already has a vaccine in Phase 1 human trials in Shanghai
Yes, the US Govt doesn't have the control to do a massive coverup.
The end state in the former case will be very different from the latter case. And therefore we’ll know at some point, by reverse deduction.
Her anger grows exponentially, without limit, even if you apologise.
One of the things that is interesting about this is that so many virologists are very good at producing mathematical models of the disease but apparently very poor in interpreting the capacity restraints/ inclination to test. The link between new cases and actual spread is nowhere near as casual as they and their models assume.
https://twitter.com/PeterAdamSmith/status/1235322684675940352
Tulsi Gabbard, will again be in the next US Democrat Debate. she has won 2 delights from American Samoa. which is the criteria they are using.
One of at max 4 candidates, on the stage.
She is my preferred candidate, but I very much doubt it will help.
but probably a remote chance if Biden really puts his foot in it or gets COV19.
I don't know her odds probably very long! but possibly worth a few people on here punting a bit down to cover all eventuality.
Do you know it?
(Nobody said it had to be an exponential increase!)
What you're talking about is the change in the net reproduction number, Rn, which takes into account the fact that not all of the population is susceptible (particularly once the epidemic has grown).
The formula is Rn equals R0 times s, where s is the proportion of the population that are susceptible.
We have been living through a period of exponential technological change. From the industrial revolution 200 years ago, we have advanced to very powerful computers, genetic engineering, AI, robotics, and so on.
Exponentials never continue for ever, so something must intervene to bring our exponential growth to a stop.
Our civilisation must end. Maybe not this year, or the next 50 years, but it won't be here in 5,000 years.
Because exponentials only exist for limited ranges, as you say.
You know the reason she had to resign in disgrace.
But this is something that should be completely safe so in theory you could take the polio approach
Delegates = delights 😆
Solicitors, Agents, Accountants, to me;
O listen, of strifes and of lawsuit concoctors all,
And give to a poor starving lawyer a fee,
Give a fee,
Give a fee,
Give a fee!
O give to a poor starving lawyer a fee.
The soldier and sailor they dash on and splash on,
And, sure of their pay, scour the land and the sea-,
But we peak and pine here, and long, long years pass on,
Before our eyes blink at our first guinea fee.
Give a fee, etc.
The Church is an Eden of violets and roses,
The Bishop its Adam, from drudgery free;
The big burly priest on his soft down reposes,
While we must still fag on, and cry, “Give a fee!”
Give a fee, etc.
The quack he sells wholesale his pills universal,
And straight waxes richer than sagest M. D.-,
But we still must con o’er the same dull rehearsal,
And leave one or two old stagers to pocket the fee.
Give a fee, etc.
Here sit I, all frozen; my youth’s glowing visions.
See-saw like a Chinese joss or a Turkish Cadi;
I seek for no learning beyond the decisions,
And my soul’s proud ideal is a bright guinea fee.
Give a fee, Give a fee!
O force me no longer to cry, “Give a fee’.’
The sheet music is available at http://archive.org/details/scottishstudents00scot_0/page/32/
Or, with the longest halflifes, there comes a time when the atoms are roasted again in the cosmic pressure cookers.
Let it go.
People in positions of authority in the workplace can seriously damage the health of their subordinates - I suspect we've all seen it happen. Fortunately these days it is less tolerated.
Just to test the counter view, is there a possibility the money is right? WHO say China slowdown in cases is real. One assumes the same is true in Singapore and Vietnam. Could it be that while this is going to be a nasty shock, it’s not as apocalyptically bad as everyone here fears?
[removes party trousers and puts back on the brown slacks]
Fish and chips.
Isn't that wonderful?
That is sad. Not sure how Exeter airport survives.