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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bloomberg becomes the first of the elderly septuagenarians to

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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited March 2020
    Sandpit said:


    The USA seems to be woefully unprepared for this.

    Trump won’t be too upset though, those affected are going to be international travellers and those in large cities - all Democrat voters.

    That's only true if it's contained. If it's spreading then it'll be all over the small towns and exurbs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Will he say anything that makes it more rather than less likely that he wins a second term? He may be falling into a big hole. Will his shtick even last until the Republican convention in late August? He'll be blaming Hillary Clinton or George Soros next, or perhaps the whole of the UN, or China, or NATO. I'm biased. I'd like to hear from a soft Trumper.

    Interesting how he says "false" rather than "fake". He sounds like he's trying to grow up or at least give the impression.
    Can't help with the soft trumper, I'm afraid.

    It depends on the chosen denominator.

    Depending on how it is used or reported, it could be a false - if you mean inaccurate - number. Because it is based on detected cases, and the vast majority of cases will not be detected. I think we can rely on our hysterical media and broadcasters to exaggerate by taking the worst possible scenario quoted (ie upper bound) and making it a headline, and various to attack the Govt on the basis of assuming that is fact.

    Consider that China has had 80k cases and 3000 deaths out of a population of 1.4 billion. Which - really and assuming reliable stats etc - is not that many.

    On that basis the number of deaths in the UK will be a small fraction of annual deaths from flu.
    3000 deaths, that’s a whole “9/11”.
    We have a whole "9/11" of road deaths.

    Each and every day.

    The world accepts that as the price of mobility.
    Oh absolutely. More than a hundred people a day die in car crashes in the USA.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year

    Yet a hundred people dying in a plane or train crash is headline news.

    One thing I do like in the USA is the NTSB reports of fatal road crashes, I don’t see similar reports from other countries.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Just to underline this difference:


    Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

    Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

    A startling contrast.

    Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.
    Grim
    3.4%
    Gosh, it is, isn't it?

    Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

    Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.
    Let's hope so

    Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

    Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

    https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20
    It's worse. Read this thread from Washington:

    https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234946039901085697
    https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234947271298449409

    I know a few doctors out there who are saying very similar stuff, and are very frustrated because they can't get their patients tested, despite them having all the symptoms, and not having the flu.
    It's truly a disgrace of a system for what is still the world's most powerful country. Sanders' almost religious fury is absolutely right on the injustice of this - to this extent at least he "gets it".
    He has, like many politicians, correctly identified the problem but not the solution.

    “Medicare For All” sounds great on a poster, but tort reform, patent reform, banning TV ads for prescription drugs and allowing Medicare to negotiate prices will actually work to give better results.
    Banning ads would never get through SCOTUS.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Sandpit said:


    The USA seems to be woefully unprepared for this.

    Trump won’t be too upset though, those affected are going to be international travellers and those in large cities - all Democrat voters.

    That's only true if it's contained. If it's spreading then it'll be all over the small towns and exurbs.
    America in 2025 will consist entirely of paranoid Survivalists. Shoot first, test for virus later. Or just burn the body.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Thank goodness Theresa May called an early election and ensured there won't be one this year.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708


    Banning ads would never get through SCOTUS.

    Tax them instead.

    Use the same technique for political ads which have the same problem, but tax them on a curve, so the more is spent on a candidate, the more tax they pay per ad.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484
    DavidL said:

    geoffw said:

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Glasgow Airport seem to have impounded some Flybe planes. Eeek.

    https://twitter.com/ConnorGillies/status/1235313173571526660

    Be an interesting court case for someone tomorrow.
    Contractual lien for unpaid landing charges.
    Probably leased planes though. Lots of interesting issues for fees to be earned on.
    I have on my shelves The Scottish Students' Songbook of 1891 which includes a ditty entitled "Give a Fee (a song for young Advocates)".
    Do you know it?

    O listen of Scotch and Civil Law Doctors all,
    Solicitors, Agents, Accountants, to me;
    O listen, of strifes and of lawsuit concoctors all,
    And give to a poor starving lawyer a fee,

    Give a fee,
    Give a fee,
    Give a fee!
    O give to a poor starving lawyer a fee.

    The soldier and sailor they dash on and splash on,
    And, sure of their pay, scour the land and the sea-,
    But we peak and pine here, and long, long years pass on,
    Before our eyes blink at our first guinea fee.

    Give a fee, etc.

    The Church is an Eden of violets and roses,
    The Bishop its Adam, from drudgery free;
    The big burly priest on his soft down reposes,
    While we must still fag on, and cry, “Give a fee!”

    Give a fee, etc.

    The quack he sells wholesale his pills universal,
    And straight waxes richer than sagest M. D.-,
    But we still must con o’er the same dull rehearsal,
    And leave one or two old stagers to pocket the fee.

    Give a fee, etc.

    Here sit I, all frozen; my youth’s glowing visions.
    See-saw like a Chinese joss or a Turkish Cadi;
    I seek for no learning beyond the decisions,
    And my soul’s proud ideal is a bright guinea fee.
    Give a fee, Give a fee!

    O force me no longer to cry, “Give a fee’.’

    The sheet music is available at http://archive.org/details/scottishstudents00scot_0/page/32/
    Excellent, thank you.
    For some reason I'm imagining it to the tune of The Beatles Oobla di Oobla da. I think it's the 'o'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Sandpit said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Just to underline this difference:


    Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

    Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

    A startling contrast.

    Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.
    Grim
    3.4%
    Gosh, it is, isn't it?

    Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

    Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.
    Let's hope so

    Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

    Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

    https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20
    It's worse. Read this thread from Washington:

    https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234946039901085697
    https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234947271298449409

    I know a few doctors out there who are saying very similar stuff, and are very frustrated because they can't get their patients tested, despite them having all the symptoms, and not having the flu.
    It's truly a disgrace of a system for what is still the world's most powerful country. Sanders' almost religious fury is absolutely right on the injustice of this - to this extent at least he "gets it".
    He has, like many politicians, correctly identified the problem but not the solution.

    “Medicare For All” sounds great on a poster, but tort reform, patent reform, banning TV ads for prescription drugs and allowing Medicare to negotiate prices will actually work to give better results.
    Banning ads would never get through SCOTUS.
    Also tort reform has no effect on prices. There are multiple state that have do e tort reform and prices didn't come down, nor even slow their upward trend
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,252

    Sandpit said:

    MattW said:

    Will he say anything that makes it more rather than less likely that he wins a second term? He may be falling into a big hole. Will his shtick even last until the Republican convention in late August? He'll be blaming Hillary Clinton or George Soros next, or perhaps the whole of the UN, or China, or NATO. I'm biased. I'd like to hear from a soft Trumper.

    Interesting how he says "false" rather than "fake". He sounds like he's trying to grow up or at least give the impression.
    Can't help with the soft trumper, I'm afraid.

    It depends on the chosen denominator.

    Depending on how it is used or reported, it could be a false - if you mean inaccurate - number. Because it is based on detected cases, and the vast majority of cases will not be detected. I think we can rely on our hysterical media and broadcasters to exaggerate by taking the worst possible scenario quoted (ie upper bound) and making it a headline, and various to attack the Govt on the basis of assuming that is fact.

    Consider that China has had 80k cases and 3000 deaths out of a population of 1.4 billion. Which - really and assuming reliable stats etc - is not that many.

    On that basis the number of deaths in the UK will be a small fraction of annual deaths from flu.
    3000 deaths, that’s a whole “9/11”.
    We have a whole "9/11" of road deaths.

    Each and every day.

    The world accepts that as the price of mobility.
    As I said - a small number in the scheme of things.

    China has 250k road deaths a year, so it is about 30 hours of road deaths.

    Not a lot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623

    Sandpit said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    FPT:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Just to underline this difference:


    Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

    Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

    A startling contrast.

    Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.
    Grim
    3.4%
    Gosh, it is, isn't it?

    Italy must be a week or two from a total seizure of its health service. We will be able to watch in real-time. Unless we have our own by then, and cannot spare time to watch anyone else.

    Even though it looks like containment has finally fallen in London, we've bought a crucial few weeks. As we see Italy's health system go under (remember, 10% of their medics are out of action in Lombardy with coronavirus), it will cause a change of behaviour over here, which should lower our R0.
    Let's hope so

    Again I salute the bravery of doctors and nurses, like foxy. They will be the front line. It won't be fun.

    Meanwhile, from the front line in America:

    https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1235239113298759680?s=20
    It's worse. Read this thread from Washington:

    https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234946039901085697
    https://twitter.com/DarcyBurner/status/1234947271298449409

    I know a few doctors out there who are saying very similar stuff, and are very frustrated because they can't get their patients tested, despite them having all the symptoms, and not having the flu.
    It's truly a disgrace of a system for what is still the world's most powerful country. Sanders' almost religious fury is absolutely right on the injustice of this - to this extent at least he "gets it".
    He has, like many politicians, correctly identified the problem but not the solution.

    “Medicare For All” sounds great on a poster, but tort reform, patent reform, banning TV ads for prescription drugs and allowing Medicare to negotiate prices will actually work to give better results.
    Banning ads would never get through SCOTUS.
    Whenever I go to the US, the drug ads are always the biggest cultural WTF.

    Yes, the first amendment would stop them being banned outright, but contracts with government purchasers (Medicare, Medicaid) could prohibit marketing directly to the public.

    The major issue, and the reason no politician talks about it, is that a massive amount of media revenue is from “Big Pharma”. Even Bernie doesn’t want to upset that apple cart - he talks a lot about the costs of healthcare but never mentions the pervasive adverts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    It’s certainly a very hard condition to treat.

    Ah, my coat...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    A question on COVID-19 vs “normal” flu (which most people self misdiagnose).

    How much of the difference is likely related to one factor (vaccination of high percentage of at risk groups)? And how much is down to COVID-19 being (presumably) more dangerous for other reasons? Eg. Higher propensity to spread, higher (normalised ie. imagining their was no vaccine for flu) mortality?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Had a colleague who over did the viagra. Had to medivac him out of Africa.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    Good of you to stand up for those afflicted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,623
    Maajid Nawaz and why the BBC licence fee is past it’s sell by date:
    https://unherd.com/2020/03/why-nostalgic-progressives-oppose-bbc-reform/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    This thread has

    reluctantly self isolated on medical advice.

This discussion has been closed.