I fear the coronavirus is out of control in Italy, and now in France ttps://twitter.com/flolauvergnat/status/1233759149026091009?s=20
The real problem is Iran, where the reported numbers make even less sense than those that came out of China in the initial stages of the outbreak.
Canadian epidemiologists estimate that the mid-point for the range of likely infections in Iran is 18,000. And that the Iranian government was slow to act because it didn't want public health measures to interfere with i) the anniversary of the revolution and ii) the election.
The Iranians have completely screwed up the response, and have sent the virus all over the Middle East as a result. Their initial statements were suggesting that Qom is a holy place where people come to be healed, therefore there was no need to lock the place down despite huge crowds of pilgrims.
As someone who lives 200 miles from Iran, that’s rather concerning, I’m certainly avoiding public transport and large groups of people at the moment.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You should take action if:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people. Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact. In England and Wales ring 111. In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours. In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885. Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician. Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital. Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
Many if not most infections are occurring within families: inside the household. Might this be because they are ordered to remain at home, in close confineemt, thus ensuring everyone in the family catches it from everyone else?
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
Has the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan not been annouced every six months for the last decade? They will most likely still be there in five years time imo.
There has never been a peace deal with the Taliban before, only temporary ceasefires, if the Taliban sticks to the terms US forces will be out of Afghanistan within 2 years
2011 - Complete withdrawal by 2014 announced 2014 - Complete withdrawal by 2016 announced 2015 - Complete withdrawal by 2016 announced 2016 - Review in 2017 2017 - Hasty withdrawal announced 2017 - Add more troops instead 2020 - Reduce troop numbers back to 2016 levels 202x - More of the same
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
It's sad that you hate your country in this way. I have enormous admiration and respect for the way that it functions - truly world class for centuries. The suggestion that everything was crap until the likes of Boris, Cummings and Patel turned up is grotesque.
As time rolls on it will become increasingly clear that selecting a cabinet from the limited gene pool of Tory Brexiteers was far from optimal. Raab and Patel would never have got near those two offices of state under normal circumstances. The mass exodus of Tory Remainers will eventually be seen to have been highly detrimental.
I don't know enough to praise or criticise the Government on the current siuation, but I agree with you on the media. There was once a threatened U-turn by the (Labour) government which would have affected my constituency badly, and the Guardian had a half page article about the "impending betrayal". I was able to head it off, and contacted the editor, who said "If they're doing what they should, that's not news", and refused to publish a word to tell readers that the "betrayal" actually never happened.
They are best seen as a branch of the entertainment industry, which incidentally provides news when it fits with the entertainment.
I wouldn't go that far. I think a lot of media criticism of government is perfectly valid.
My point was more about in this particular exceptional circumstances, it does appear that in the recent past the authorities have done a really good job. Instead we are just fed tales of the likes of some idiot who ignored the advice given and now wants to blame everybody else.
My elderly parents were affected by Monarch going bust and said the authorities were very good, but still at the airport you had people getting really mouthy about why they couldn't fly today, they demand they get flown back now as they have terribly important things etc etc etc. Rather than, understand this is an exceptional situation and the government are still getting us home free of charge, albeit it a day or two late.
The media aren't dummies, they realise organising getting 250,000 people back to the UK is a massive undertaking, and there is of course going to be the odd case where it doesn't work out perfectly.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
I don't think so, Fox celebrated the death of Bin Laden even under Obama.
The main aim of the invasion was not to topple the Taliban, they took power 5 years before 9/11 but to remove Al Qaeda and kill Bin Laden after 9/11
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
Has the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan not been annouced every six months for the last decade? They will most likely still be there in five years time imo.
There has never been a peace deal with the Taliban before, only temporary ceasefires, if the Taliban sticks to the terms US forces will be out of Afghanistan within 2 years
2011 - Complete withdrawal by 2014 announced 2014 - Complete withdrawal by 2016 announced 2015 - Complete withdrawal by 2016 announced 2016 - Review in 2017 2017 - Hasty withdrawal announced 2017 - Add more troops instead 2020 - Reduce troop numbers back to 2016 levels 202x - More of the same
So no full peace deal agreed with the Taliban during that time then, thanks for confirming
WRT the Civil servant - surely he is right to resign and claim constructive dismissal and fight his case in the courts. However, entirely wrong to give the press conference and create a political confrontation with the government. In doing the latter he calls into question his own and the entire CS position of neutrality thereby weakening his case. At the end of the day the government has the right to expect its servants to foster the programme upon which they have been elected. If he is concerned about illegality the place for that is the courts and not the press.
Certainly, there is no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater – but there is a need to throw out the bathwater.
It's a fair point. Fair enough not changing entirely, but even if they take a path different to what I might think they should so, there's still basic facts to confront rather than avoid.
Shouting and screaming is not “bullying”, in my book, even if it’s unpleasant.
I think Patel is probably the least qualified Home Secretary in my lifetime, worse than hapless Jacqui Smith, but mendacious and malevolent as well.
But not convinced yet Mr Rutnam has a cast iron case. Look forward to seeing the evidence.
There are very few occasions in an office environment that shouting and screaming would be warranted and thus such action is more likely to be bullying behaviour than not, in my view, but it depends very much on whether there was a pattern of behaviour to assess. Everyone blows up now and again, but a general approach of pettiness, viciousness, aggression or just low grade nastiness as a boss will show through and be indicative of a bully, whether or not there is screaming and shouting.
Sometimes people need a bollocking, and swearing can be useful when exercised appropriately to make a point. It's people who think to act like Malcolm Tucker that get my goat, people who seem to think reasonable manners are a weakness or that to be cool and powerful they need to rant and swear like the children of South Park.
We all know it is possible to be a good leader without screaming and shouting (habitually at any rate) so no one needs to do it. It's like caning children - its possible to control schoolkids without it, so choosing to do it is pathetic on top of being wrong.
Pretty much my view. The very occasional display of anger can be very useful, but two things: 1. separate the issue from the person - direct the anger at what they are doing/not doing, rather than at their person; 2. there's no need to shout to display anger.
WRT the Civil servant - surely he is right to resign and claim constructive dismissal and fight his case in the courts. However, entirely wrong to give the press conference and create a political confrontation with the government. In doing the latter he calls into question his own and the entire CS position of neutrality thereby weakening his case. At the end of the day the government has the right to expect its servants to foster the programme upon which they have been elected. If he is concerned about illegality the place for that is the courts and not the press.
In what world is the press the wrong place to deal with illegal acts by govt ministers?
However this might be because the data is distorted by Chinese under-reporting, and/or the uniquely draconian Chinese reaction; added to which, the new rise in cases around the world has yet to impact on overall numbers.
The next week should tell us. But maybe there's a glimmer of hope.
As you well know, China cases are irrelevant to the worldwide spread. Look at the map excluding China cases.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
WRT the Civil servant - surely he is right to resign and claim constructive dismissal and fight his case in the courts. However, entirely wrong to give the press conference and create a political confrontation with the government. In doing the latter he calls into question his own and the entire CS position of neutrality thereby weakening his case. At the end of the day the government has the right to expect its servants to foster the programme upon which they have been elected. If he is concerned about illegality the place for that is the courts and not the press.
Exactly right. His resignation looks politically motivated and due to a political disagreement with the new government agenda. It's extremely transparent that he's being put up to this by the union to try and hurt the government.
WRT the Civil servant - surely he is right to resign and claim constructive dismissal and fight his case in the courts. However, entirely wrong to give the press conference and create a political confrontation with the government. In doing the latter he calls into question his own and the entire CS position of neutrality thereby weakening his case. At the end of the day the government has the right to expect its servants to foster the programme upon which they have been elected. If he is concerned about illegality the place for that is the courts and not the press.
Exactly right. His resignation looks politically motivated and due to a political disagreement with the new government agenda. It's extremely transparent that he's being put up to this by the union to try and hurt the government.
Except that his statement claims he went public because such behaviour was widespread within the department.
Whether that it true or not will become clear in time, but if he is right, your certainty about what he has done is. simply not justified.
However this might be because the data is distorted by Chinese under-reporting, and/or the uniquely draconian Chinese reaction; added to which, the new rise in cases around the world has yet to impact on overall numbers.
The next week should tell us. But maybe there's a glimmer of hope.
As you well know, China cases are irrelevant to the worldwide spread. Look at the map excluding China cases.
True, but what the Chinese data might help us understand is how long the disease will persist in a given location once it hits. Of course, both the level of infections and the duration of outbreak in each place will be impacted by the effectiveness of the public health measures, but China is giving us some baseline data.
Activist investor Elliott Management Corp. has taken a sizable stake in Twitter Inc. and plans to push for changes at the social media company, including replacing Chief Executive Officer Jack Dorsey, according to people familiar with the matter.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We did it before South Korea. We are scaling it up.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
My understanding is that the present Afghan Government is composed of somewhat more liberal Muslims than yer average Talib!
However this might be because the data is distorted by Chinese under-reporting, and/or the uniquely draconian Chinese reaction; added to which, the new rise in cases around the world has yet to impact on overall numbers.
The next week should tell us. But maybe there's a glimmer of hope.
As you well know, China cases are irrelevant to the worldwide spread. Look at the map excluding China cases.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
My understanding is that the present Afghan Government is composed of somewhat more liberal Muslims than yer average Talib!
Not to a great degree, the current Afghan Government is composed of Pashtuns who are the Afghan majority and warlords
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
My understanding is that the present Afghan Government is composed of somewhat more liberal Muslims than yer average Talib!
Not to a great degree, the current Afghan Government is composed of Pashtuns who are the Afghan majority and warlords
Surely you mean the Pashtun are the plurality, not the majority, of the Afghan population. They make up 38%
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
My understanding is that the present Afghan Government is composed of somewhat more liberal Muslims than yer average Talib!
Not to a great degree, the current Afghan Government is composed of Pashtuns who are the Afghan majority and warlords
Approximately what percentage of Pashtuns do you think are warlords?
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
My understanding is that the present Afghan Government is composed of somewhat more liberal Muslims than yer average Talib!
Not to a great degree, the current Afghan Government is composed of Pashtuns who are the Afghan majority and warlords
Approximately what percentage of Pashtuns do you think are warlords?
LOL. Had the same thought. Some of my favorite Pakistnis are Pashtun, and they are not warlords. They have nice cloth caps, though.
However this might be because the data is distorted by Chinese under-reporting, and/or the uniquely draconian Chinese reaction; added to which, the new rise in cases around the world has yet to impact on overall numbers.
The next week should tell us. But maybe there's a glimmer of hope.
As you well know, China cases are irrelevant to the worldwide spread. Look at the map excluding China cases.
That shows a pretty dramatic slowing of the infection rate:
20.75% 23.26% 53.57% 133.33% 100.00%
(Although, of course, there might be a number of countries which - errrrr... - aren't doing a very good job of tracking infections. Like, the US.)
Ah sorry, I should have clarified that those were selected dates, not every date.
The rough daily infection rates are:
15th Feb-20th Feb: 15% 21-25: 24% 26-27: 24% 28: 24% 29: 23+% (depending on how many more cases are found. Another 100 would raise it to the standard 24%.)
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You should take action if:
You have returned from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau and experience symptoms, however mild, within two weeks. You have returned from Northern Italy (defined by a line above and not including Pisa, Florence and Rimini), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos or Myanmar since February 19thand experience symptoms, however mild. You have returned from Iran, specific lockdown areas in Northern Italy or special care zones in South Korea since 19thFebruary, even if you don't have any symptoms. You have returned from Wuhan or Hubei Province of China in the last fourteen days. You have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case of coronavirus, even if you feel entirely well. If any of the above applies to you:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people. Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact. In England and Wales ring 111. In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours. In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885. Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician. Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital. Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
A serious issue is, how do you get there without using public transport or a taxi? Why would any neighbour or friend be willing to spend an hour or so cooped up with you in their car? What about other people who also may use that car?
Good afternoon, everyone. Many thanks for all the informative and still entertaining threads & comments.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
I think you can make a good case to tone down the rhetoric generally on Twitter, but the implication of Dale's tweet is that Priti Patel should be exceptionally spared because she's female and of Asian origin.
In fact, the conduct that led her to be sacked by May, and the conduct that has led to this extraordinary situation, are both perfectly legitimate targets for robust criticism.
I also quite like the "styles himself" thing too. Dale "styles himself" as a political commentator.
However this might be because the data is distorted by Chinese under-reporting, and/or the uniquely draconian Chinese reaction; added to which, the new rise in cases around the world has yet to impact on overall numbers.
The next week should tell us. But maybe there's a glimmer of hope.
As you well know, China cases are irrelevant to the worldwide spread. Look at the map excluding China cases.
I think you can make a good case to tone down the rhetoric generally on Twitter, but the implication of Dale's tweet is that Priti Patel should be exceptionally spared because she's female and of Asian origin.
In fact, the conduct that led her to be sacked by May, and the conduct that has led to this extraordinary situation, are both perfectly legitimate targets for robust criticism.
Indeed, but Grayling does not do that - he suggests she's a female demon believed to have sexual intercourse with sleeping men.
It shouldn't really matter that she is female or Asian, we tire of the woke/left when they hide behind minority-isms to deflect criticism. But, (having looked up what a succubi is!) it seems an overly personal term and inappropriate (in that it doesn't fit Priti Patel rather than the modern use of inappropriate as a passive aggressive way of saying "wrong")
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
The next conspiracy theory will be that this virus was designed by the Japanese and Europeans to deal with the pensions problems.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You should take action if:
You have returned from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau and experience symptoms, however mild, within two weeks. You have returned from Northern Italy (defined by a line above and not including Pisa, Florence and Rimini), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos or Myanmar since February 19thand experience symptoms, however mild. You have returned from Iran, specific lockdown areas in Northern Italy or special care zones in South Korea since 19thFebruary, even if you don't have any symptoms. You have returned from Wuhan or Hubei Province of China in the last fourteen days. You have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case of coronavirus, even if you feel entirely well. If any of the above applies to you:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people. Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact. In England and Wales ring 111. In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours. In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885. Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician. Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital. Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
A serious issue is, how do you get there without using public transport or a taxi? Why would any neighbour or friend be willing to spend an hour or so cooped up with you in their car? What about other people who also may use that car?
Good afternoon, everyone. Many thanks for all the informative and still entertaining threads & comments.
I think the plan is for appropriately trained staff to come to you - though how long that will survive a major outbreak, who knows. However, the advice to avoid surgeries and public transport is sound.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
About 1/3rd of them. However the 2-3% mortality rate for widespread infection is optimistic if Wuhan is any guide.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
I think you can make a good case to tone down the rhetoric generally on Twitter, but the implication of Dale's tweet is that Priti Patel should be exceptionally spared because she's female and of Asian origin.
In fact, the conduct that led her to be sacked by May, and the conduct that has led to this extraordinary situation, are both perfectly legitimate targets for robust criticism.
I also quite like the "styles himself" thing too. Dale "styles himself" as a political commentator.
A least Grayling hasn't physically assaulted any OAPs.
I think you can make a good case to tone down the rhetoric generally on Twitter, but the implication of Dale's tweet is that Priti Patel should be exceptionally spared because she's female and of Asian origin.
In fact, the conduct that led her to be sacked by May, and the conduct that has led to this extraordinary situation, are both perfectly legitimate targets for robust criticism.
I also quite like the "styles himself" thing too. Dale "styles himself" as a political commentator.
Of course politicians are fair game for criticism, but Grayling really doesn’t need to resort to such offensive sexist language to make his point clear.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
This is why Gove / Cummings at education caused so many waves. They actually came to education having done a lot of research, and we know that Cummings can start an argument in an empty lift, but does consume masses of information on subjects that he becomes interested in.
So when they got the usual civil service response "its not possible, that won't work, we have looked at it", I think they met their match.
"caused waves", you mean gave the Whitehall mandarins exactly what they wanted?
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
It shouldn't really matter that she is female or Asian, we tire of the woke/left when they hide behind minority-isms to deflect criticism. But, (having looked up what a succubi is!) it seems an overly personal term and inappropriate (in that it doesn't fit Priti Patel rather than the modern use of inappropriate as a passive aggressive way of saying "wrong")
Too clever by half comes to mind. Like peppering speeches with Latin tags.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
The CDC seem to be really struggling to understand this virus, they’re lucky that’s it’s a small number of unrelated cases so far. If one of the large US cities gets hit then it could prove very difficult to contain.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
That's not what tha says. It is a criticism of the fact we tried to bomb him then stopped actually. He's responding to the fact America tried to bomb Bin Laden not suggesting America does.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
The CDC seem to be really struggling to understand this virus, they’re lucky that’s it’s a small number of unrelated cases so far. If one of the large US cities gets hit then it could prove very difficult to contain.
The US has been described as a very rich third-world country. The virus could badly expose its institutional failings.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
Just a bit
The collapse in China's economy in February was worse than 2008
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
Fair comment.
Nevertheless when people start to realise that for the healthy this virus is mostly harmless, and aided by summer weather it starts to subside, I am coming round to considering that a summer market rebound is more likely. Followed by more pain in the autumn.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
Yes, it’s the severe disruption that’s the economic threat, rather than a large population ‘adjustment’ among mostly economically inactive groups.
Sporting, cultural events and exhibitions are also getting cancelled everywhere, authorities in many countries don’t want large crowds of people gathering. It sounds as if the French football league will be being played entirely behind closed doors this weekend.
It was OPEC who called it first, that China’s demand for oil and gas was 25-30% off during January. That’s still a pretty good estimate for how much Chinese economic output has been down - which is why the authorities are now desperate to get the factories open again.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
Fair comment.
Nevertheless when people start to realise that for the healthy this virus is mostly harmless, and aided by summer weather it starts to subside, I am coming round to considering that a summer market rebound is more likely. Followed by more pain in the autumn.
Buying some June call options around the 7000-7100 mark seems low risk, solid upside.
Most likely we are now heading for recession, earnings downgrades, credit problems, further barriers to international trade and tensions between the powerful nations of the world though so hard to feel optimistic.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You should take action if:
You have returned from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau and experience symptoms, however mild, within two weeks. You have returned from Northern Italy (defined by a line above and not including Pisa, Florence and Rimini), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos or Myanmar since February 19thand experience symptoms, however mild. You have returned from Iran, specific lockdown areas in Northern Italy or special care zones in South Korea since 19thFebruary, even if you don't have any symptoms. You have returned from Wuhan or Hubei Province of China in the last fourteen days. You have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case of coronavirus, even if you feel entirely well. If any of the above applies to you:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people. Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact. In England and Wales ring 111. In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours. In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885. Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician. Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital. Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
A serious issue is, how do you get there without using public transport or a taxi? Why would any neighbour or friend be willing to spend an hour or so cooped up with you in their car? What about other people who also may use that car?
Good afternoon, everyone. Many thanks for all the informative and still entertaining threads & comments.
I think the plan is for appropriately trained staff to come to you - though how long that will survive a major outbreak, who knows. However, the advice to avoid surgeries and public transport is sound.
Thank you, that sounds more appropriate in my circumstances. However, surely hospital car parks will rapidly fill up with the cars of those who come for testing and are swept straight into hospital quarantine. Minor problems, I know.
The CDC seem to be really struggling to understand this virus, they’re lucky that’s it’s a small number of unrelated cases so far. If one of the large US cities gets hit then it could prove very difficult to contain.
Well Trump did sack their entire pandemic response team when he took office. Probably because they did an excellent job for Obama over Ebola.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
So basically if you are under 75 and reasonably healthy, you really haven’t got much to worry about.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
Fair comment.
Nevertheless when people start to realise that for the healthy this virus is mostly harmless, and aided by summer weather it starts to subside, I am coming round to considering that a summer market rebound is more likely. Followed by more pain in the autumn.
Buying some June call options around the 7000-7100 mark seems low risk, solid upside.
Most likely we are now heading for recession, earnings downgrades, credit problems, further barriers to international trade and tensions between the powerful nations of the world though so hard to feel optimistic.
Optimistic is over stating things. The question is how long it will be sensible to maintain a solid sell position.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
Isn't the economic concern less to do with mortality rates and more to do with the impact of measures designed to limit spread of the infection? Many economic activities may well be closed down or significantly reduced for a period.
Fair comment.
Nevertheless when people start to realise that for the healthy this virus is mostly harmless, and aided by summer weather it starts to subside, I am coming round to considering that a summer market rebound is more likely. Followed by more pain in the autumn.
Buying some June call options around the 7000-7100 mark seems low risk, solid upside.
Most likely we are now heading for recession, earnings downgrades, credit problems, further barriers to international trade and tensions between the powerful nations of the world though so hard to feel optimistic.
My IFA has sent this in his monthly Bulletin. I'd not heard of the Baltic Index, but the idea seems to make sense. 'With sensationalist headlines and plenty of disinformation regarding the Coronavirus an objective way to take stock of the situation is to consider an index such as the Baltic Dry Index. In simple terms this measures shipping routes carrying coal, iron ore, grains and many other commodities and when the index falls it means that demand for such raw materials is waning. It is often seen as the canary in the coal mine in terms of what the immediate future may hold when gauging economic growth. Since September the Baltic Dry Index has fallen by 83% and remains at a historically low level. To put matters in perspective, the index fell by a similar level during the Global Financial Crisis and is thus supportive of our defensive move to reduce equities this month.'
You think there wont be photos like that in our press within days?
It won't take much at all to get a photo like that in a supermarket, and it not necessarily mass panic, even a small change in demand.
Remember the snow we had a couple of years ago, it was like that in my local stores and took 2 weeks to get back to normal, because the whole system runs on JIT...people stuck at home for a couple of days in the week and a missed delivery, and you get empty shelves within a day or two.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
The CDC seem to be really struggling to understand this virus, they’re lucky that’s it’s a small number of unrelated cases so far. If one of the large US cities gets hit then it could prove very difficult to contain.
The US has been described as a very rich third-world country. The virus could badly expose its institutional failings.
It’s certainly very decentralised, disparate and slow to react, and it’s healthcare system is a disjointed mess. A fast-moving viral health incident such as this one does seem almost designed to play up to its weaknesses.
Older people with pre-existing conditions (I'm one) should avoid young ones who could be asymptomatic and unwittingly pass it on. E.g. grandparents shouldn't collect kids from school or ferry them to singing lessons etc.
Older people with pre-existing conditions (I'm one) should avoid young ones who could be asymptomatic and unwittingly pass it on. E.g. grandparents shouldn't collect kids from school or ferry them to singing lessons etc.
Older people with pre-existing conditions (I'm one) should avoid young ones who could be asymptomatic and unwittingly pass it on. E.g. grandparents shouldn't collect kids from school or ferry them to singing lessons etc.
Being in a similar category, I'm becoming concerned about my Sunday trip to the pub.
The CDC seem to be really struggling to understand this virus, they’re lucky that’s it’s a small number of unrelated cases so far. If one of the large US cities gets hit then it could prove very difficult to contain.
The US has been described as a very rich third-world country. The virus could badly expose its institutional failings.
It’s certainly very decentralised, disparate and slow to react, and it’s healthcare system is a disjointed mess. A fast-moving viral health incident such as this one does seem almost designed to play up to its weaknesses.
Also the society is setup to be one where the individual is expected to take a lot more responsibility for themselves. It works well for those in steady skilled careers, as they have health insurance through their job, and then have plenty of disposable income to decide what to spend it on.
The working poor in very low paid and / or unreliable employment that are far more exposed to any disruption than in Western European countries.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
How many people are treated in hospitals every day ?
I suspect that a few dozen more has less of an effect than is being claimed.
I refer you to foxy, who has more expertise, as a UK doc. I believe he is rather concerned.
That's like saying I refer you to the Pope, who is Catholic. Foxy's job is to be concerned and he is on the frontline. He's concerned even without the virus. Doesn't mean it's right to be hysterical.
I would have thought one of the biggest concerns for the US authorities is that there is a very large illegal undocumented population (I believe thought to be at least 5% of the population) and they are overwhelmingly located in high density urban areas.
Even before Trump's rhetoric, they obviously don't have healthcare and do everything possible from interacting with the authorities, and obviously their employment is all illegal and day to day.
So you have millions of people in the high density areas whose motivation / necessity of their situation is to do everything against the general advice i.e. quarantine, seek medical assistance and report to authorities.
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
How many people are treated in hospitals every day ?
I suspect that a few dozen more has less of an effect than is being claimed.
I refer you to foxy, who has more expertise, as a UK doc. I believe he is rather concerned.
That's like saying I refer you to the Pope, who is Catholic. Foxy's job is to be concerned and he is on the frontline. He's concerned even without the virus. Doesn't mean it's right to be hysterical.
I wouldn't refer you to the Pope, as he is likely to be dead soon. From coronavirus.
See below.
Given his cohort has an 85% survival rate and presumably he has access to the best medical care, you may be a tad pessimistic.
Oh, and no-one trusts anything anyone says in the US either, when even official sources are full of fake news, and the TV news programming has been reduced to nothing but partisan political talking points. Military on the streets by next weekend?
So the large majority of people are going to have a minor cold for a week and then that’s it?
This has been known and accepted, by all, from the start. 80% of cases are mild or even asymptomatic. This itself causes problems because you can be carrying the disease, and handing it on, without even being aware you're infected
15-20% of people will get more seriously ill. Around 10% will require acute care in a hospital. The German doctor believes around 2-3% will die.
He is saying absolutely nothing new.
And of those 2-3% how many would have died in the following year in any case ?
A large chunk, I think
It's not so much the dead who are the problem, if I may be brutal (though 250,000 dead in Britain, if it happens, is grim) - it is the numbers of critically ill.
Apparently hospitals in France are already struggling, and they have a few dozen cases. What will it be like if and when they have thousands, or tens of thousands? How would the NHS cope with that?
They might not cope, and the health system will collapse, and then we are in deep shit.
France today:
"French hospitals face the coronavirus: "It's an incredible mess for a still low number of cases""
Elsewhere in the interview, Mr Corbyn also left the door open to accepting a Shadow Cabinet role under the next leader....
Asked what job he would take, Mr Corbyn said: "I think foreign policy actually because I have spent my life on human rights justice and environmental justice issues.
Elsewhere in the interview, Mr Corbyn also left the door open to accepting a Shadow Cabinet role under the next leader....
Asked what job he would take, Mr Corbyn said: "I think foreign policy actually because I have spent my life on human rights justice and environmental justice issues.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I will take that as a Yes, were this a Democrat President Fox would be calling it surrender.
Whatever the news, there is always a Trump tweet for it...
Not sure The Donald is going to be entirely happy with the Taliban's spokesman's reported remarks. "I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Even the current Afghan Government is Islamic, the main aim of the invasion and the deal is to stop the Taliban harbouring Al Qaeda terrorists
My understanding is that the present Afghan Government is composed of somewhat more liberal Muslims than yer average Talib!
Not to a great degree, the current Afghan Government is composed of Pashtuns who are the Afghan majority and warlords
Approximately what percentage of Pashtuns do you think are warlords?
LOL. Had the same thought. Some of my favorite Pakistnis are Pashtun, and they are not warlords. They have nice cloth caps, though.
A lot of them hide their warlord-ness pretty well. You should directly ask them.
I think you can make a good case to tone down the rhetoric generally on Twitter, but the implication of Dale's tweet is that Priti Patel should be exceptionally spared because she's female and of Asian origin.
In fact, the conduct that led her to be sacked by May, and the conduct that has led to this extraordinary situation, are both perfectly legitimate targets for robust criticism.
I also quite like the "styles himself" thing too. Dale "styles himself" as a political commentator.
A least Grayling hasn't physically assaulted any OAPs.
Do you have an actual evidence he hasn't assaulted any OAPs? I've haven't heard him even deny going on regular weekend "granny bashings".
Elsewhere in the interview, Mr Corbyn also left the door open to accepting a Shadow Cabinet role under the next leader....
Asked what job he would take, Mr Corbyn said: "I think foreign policy actually because I have spent my life on human rights justice and environmental justice issues.
Comments
As someone who lives 200 miles from Iran, that’s rather concerning, I’m certainly avoiding public transport and large groups of people at the moment.
Ten to a house low pay gig economy doesn't look too clever now.
2014 - Complete withdrawal by 2016 announced
2015 - Complete withdrawal by 2016 announced
2016 - Review in 2017
2017 - Hasty withdrawal announced
2017 - Add more troops instead
2020 - Reduce troop numbers back to 2016 levels
202x - More of the same
My point was more about in this particular exceptional circumstances, it does appear that in the recent past the authorities have done a really good job. Instead we are just fed tales of the likes of some idiot who ignored the advice given and now wants to blame everybody else.
My elderly parents were affected by Monarch going bust and said the authorities were very good, but still at the airport you had people getting really mouthy about why they couldn't fly today, they demand they get flown back now as they have terribly important things etc etc etc. Rather than, understand this is an exceptional situation and the government are still getting us home free of charge, albeit it a day or two late.
The media aren't dummies, they realise organising getting 250,000 people back to the UK is a massive undertaking, and there is of course going to be the odd case where it doesn't work out perfectly.
The main aim of the invasion was not to topple the Taliban, they took power 5 years before 9/11 but to remove Al Qaeda and kill Bin Laden after 9/11
1. separate the issue from the person - direct the anger at what they are doing/not doing, rather than at their person;
2. there's no need to shout to display anger.
Open up this: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Maximise the chart in the bottom right, and look at the yellow line (cases outside China).
29/02: 6.4k (so far)
28/02: 5.3k
27/02: 4.3k
25/02: 2.8k
20/02: 1.2k
14/02: 0.6k
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/157918533655871488?s=20
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=PV6qZU_xev8C&printsec=frontcover&dq=america+we+deserve&hl=en&sa=X&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=bin laden&f=false
I’ll believe the US troops are all coming home when it actually happens though, there’s been way too many false starts over the years.
"I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life,"
Whether that it true or not will become clear in time, but if he is right, your certainty about what he has done is. simply not justified.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-29/singer-s-elliott-is-said-to-seek-to-replace-twitter-ceo-dorsey
Do we ?
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/02/nhs-comments-on-coronavirus-drive-through-testing-service/
(That is not a criticism - I’m just curious, as it hasn’t been widely publicised.)
20.75%
23.26%
53.57%
133.33%
100.00%
(Although, of course, there might be a number of countries which - errrrr... - aren't doing a very good job of tracking infections. Like, the US.)
The rough daily infection rates are:
15th Feb-20th Feb: 15%
21-25: 24%
26-27: 24%
28: 24%
29: 23+% (depending on how many more cases are found. Another 100 would raise it to the standard 24%.)
Good afternoon, everyone. Many thanks for all the informative and still entertaining threads & comments.
26 Feb:
UK: 7,132
US: 445
28 Feb:
UK: 8,986 (+1,854)
US: 459 (+15)
Today, UK's total testing stands at 10,483, up 1,497.
If the US was testing at the same rate as the UK they would have carried out 52,000 tests by now.
In fact, the conduct that led her to be sacked by May, and the conduct that has led to this extraordinary situation, are both perfectly legitimate targets for robust criticism.
I also quite like the "styles himself" thing too. Dale "styles himself" as a political commentator.
https://twitter.com/scribblercat/status/1233785742930989062?s=20
This page will be updated regularly on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html
I wouldn’t wish ill on anyone in their 80s. But this doesn’t look like an existential threat to the global economy. Except possibly for the cruise industry.
I suspect that a few dozen more has less of an effect than is being claimed.
Now I know Chinese figures are usually dubious in the lot of ways but this seems even worse than usual.
Nevertheless when people start to realise that for the healthy this virus is mostly harmless, and aided by summer weather it starts to subside, I am coming round to considering that a summer market rebound is more likely. Followed by more pain in the autumn.
Sporting, cultural events and exhibitions are also getting cancelled everywhere, authorities in many countries don’t want large crowds of people gathering. It sounds as if the French football league will be being played entirely behind closed doors this weekend.
It was OPEC who called it first, that China’s demand for oil and gas was 25-30% off during January. That’s still a pretty good estimate for how much Chinese economic output has been down - which is why the authorities are now desperate to get the factories open again.
Most likely we are now heading for recession, earnings downgrades, credit problems, further barriers to international trade and tensions between the powerful nations of the world though so hard to feel optimistic.
Probably because they did an excellent job for Obama over Ebola.
I'm far more worried than most on here seem to be today.
Taking sensible precautions and not panicking is the thing to do.
'With sensationalist headlines and plenty of disinformation regarding the Coronavirus an objective way to take stock of the situation is to consider an index such as the Baltic Dry Index. In simple terms this measures shipping routes carrying coal, iron ore, grains and many other commodities and when the index falls it means that demand for such raw materials is waning. It is often seen as the canary in the coal mine in terms of what the immediate future may hold when gauging economic growth. Since September the Baltic Dry Index has fallen by 83% and remains at a historically low level. To put matters in perspective, the index fell by a similar level during the Global Financial Crisis and is thus supportive of our defensive move to reduce equities this month.'
Remember the snow we had a couple of years ago, it was like that in my local stores and took 2 weeks to get back to normal, because the whole system runs on JIT...people stuck at home for a couple of days in the week and a missed delivery, and you get empty shelves within a day or two.
Because things tend towards the normal.
But that never stops some people trying to big up every event because they're fear junckies.
The working poor in very low paid and / or unreliable employment that are far more exposed to any disruption than in Western European countries.
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1233796571969531904?s=20
Even before Trump's rhetoric, they obviously don't have healthcare and do everything possible from interacting with the authorities, and obviously their employment is all illegal and day to day.
So you have millions of people in the high density areas whose motivation / necessity of their situation is to do everything against the general advice i.e. quarantine, seek medical assistance and report to authorities.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743
Elsewhere in the interview, Mr Corbyn also left the door open to accepting a Shadow Cabinet role under the next leader....
Asked what job he would take, Mr Corbyn said: "I think foreign policy actually because I have spent my life on human rights justice and environmental justice issues.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/jeremy-corbyn/news/110218/jeremy-corbyn-calls-keir-starmer
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233799741630230530?s=20