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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour must get over its myth of 2017 if it is to win again

Keir Starmer looks well set to win Labour’s leadership election in April. After securing comfortable leads among MPs, CLPs and affiliate organisations in the previous rounds, YouGov reported this week that he holds a 22% lead over Rebecca Long-Bailey, and is more likely than not to win on the first round.

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david_herdson

First.

DavidL

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

DavidL

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

david_herdson

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Jonathan

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Casino_Royale

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

algarkirk

Trouble breaking out at the Home Office

DavidL

On topic I am not quite sure. What Starmer will bring is some intelligence and tactical nous to the situation. The attacks on the governments actions, inactions, whatever will become more coherent. The opposition will start to sound like an alternative government again instead of a protest movement. Ministers will be challenged with shadows who have some idea what they might do instead rather than a moral vacuity.

My guess is that most Labour members will get to like the fact that their party sounds more credible and less vile again. The details of actual policy changes will not matter nearly so much as the tone. I suspect that most of what David thinks it is necessary to have a big battle about will be won almost by default.

david_herdson

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

nunu2

The thing about the kabour party is the leader needs more power to change policy and appoint shadow cabinet members

DavidL

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Maybe a provisional result like Iowa then. We can confirm the actual result in a couple of weeks when no one is interested anymore.

MikeSmithson

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

Casino_Royale

On topic:

(1) Brexit wouldn't have happened without Corbyn. He was leader just long enough to both help cause and guarantee it (2015-2020), something his acolytes have never worked out.

(2) On Sanders, yes, and I think Biden is now too short. But, Sanders does have to survive the year. And I mean stay alive - literally (not politically) - so keep Warren onside. She's the understudy and Plan B.

DavidL

algarkirk said:

Trouble breaking out at the Home Office

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51687287

Hmm... Priti Patel worries me.

IanB2

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Jonathan

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

MikeSmithson

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

A classic example of whataboutery.

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1233698871907422209?s=21

FF43

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

DavidL

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Benpointer

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

Are there any other forums or sites that operate the PB-style 'single thread at a time' approach? I think it works really well and the current race to be first is one of the minor pleasures of PB, so I do hope you don't sell out to the tempataion of a the multi-£m revenue stream such a notification service would obviously bring in.

I say, let's keep the level-playing field for all! (except TSE obs!)

Casino_Royale

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

Lol. Why not?!

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

isam

In 2017 the choice was between a Tory Brexit or a Labour Brexit, and it was very close. Two years later the choice was Brexit or no Brexit, and it was not close at all.

IanB2

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

We'd rather win a fair race than pay to be able to cheat!

nichomar

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Against each other! The Chinese have bred 100,000 ducks to combat a plague of locusts.

eek

Benpointer said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

Are there any other forums or sites that operate the PB-style 'single thread at a time' approach? I think it works really well and the current race to be first is one of the minor pleasures of PB, so I do hope you don't sell out to the tempataion of a the multi-£m revenue stream such a notification service would obviously bring in.

I say, let's keep the level-playing field for all! (except TSE obs!)

If TSE gets joy in cheating, it's the least he can enjoy it for the rest of the work he does here.

squareroot2

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

I did.. it was about an article during the week where the chinese are trying to use 100,000 ducks to control 10 billion iirc not million locusts.. the locusts will win

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

Bloody hell: floods, pestilence... and now a plague of locusts too.

Are we sure there were only four Horsemen?

TheScreamingEagles

DavidL said:

algarkirk said:

Trouble breaking out at the Home Office

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51687287

Hmm... Priti Patel worries me.

She's a disgraced national security risk, Boris Johnson appointing her Home Secretary is another Brexit dividend, along with Dominic 'Calais to Dover is so close' Raab as Foreign Secretary.

Jonathan

MikeSmithson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

A classic example of whataboutery.

Thanks, I appreciate the compliment. Always good to nail a classic, but oh dear the libdems what a mess.

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

Extraordinary. I had missed that. But Chinese exports seem to come at a high price these days.

IanB2

squareroot2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

I did.. it was about an article during the week where the chinese are trying to use 100,000 ducks to control 10 billion iirc not million locusts.. the locusts will win

Maybe it was a billion locusts. I cant remember how many there were in the question but it sounded like a lot, so I chose them.

eek

As for the PS - I do think Bernie has it in the bag but the travel requirements and pressures alongside the illness is a large cause for concern.

Its morbid but I would recommending putting money in Bernie's running mate to be the next president.

IanB2

isam said:

In 2017 the choice was between a Tory Brexit or a Labour Brexit, and it was very close. Two years later the choice was Brexit or no Brexit, and it was not close at all.

no Brexit didn't get that many more votes.

isam

IanB2 said:

isam said:

In 2017 the choice was between a Tory Brexit or a Labour Brexit, and it was very close. Two years later the choice was Brexit or no Brexit, and it was not close at all.

no Brexit didn't get that many more votes.

Obviously I am talking about the only two parties that could realistically win

squareroot2

IanB2 said:

squareroot2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

I did.. it was about an article during the week where the chinese are trying to use 100,000 ducks to control 10 billion iirc not million locusts.. the locusts will win

Maybe it was a billion locusts. I cant remember how many there were in the question but it sounded like a lot, so I chose them.

whatever the number was .. there are more now!

TheScreamingEagles

eek said:

Benpointer said:

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

Are there any other forums or sites that operate the PB-style 'single thread at a time' approach? I think it works really well and the current race to be first is one of the minor pleasures of PB, so I do hope you don't sell out to the tempataion of a the multi-£m revenue stream such a notification service would obviously bring in.

I say, let's keep the level-playing field for all! (except TSE obs!)

If TSE gets joy in cheating, it's the least he can enjoy it for the rest of the work he does here.

The absolute joy I get from working on PB is not being first but being picture editor.

I never knew there’d be such joy from choosing a picture to accompany a thread.

DavidL

IanB2 said:

squareroot2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

I did.. it was about an article during the week where the chinese are trying to use 100,000 ducks to control 10 billion iirc not million locusts.. the locusts will win

Maybe it was a billion locusts. I cant remember how many there were in the question but it sounded like a lot, so I chose them.

The article from the BBC quotes someone from a Chinese Agricultural College pointing out that these are desert locusts and that ducks rather like water. Sounds like a flaw to me.

Philip_Thompson

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

nichomar

If your Spanish is up to it RTVE have an excellent thread running with up to the minute global covid news providing far more info than BBC or Sky. It’s interesting that they seem to release more detail far quicker in Spain than in the UK.

DavidL

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

Bloody hell: floods, pestilence... and now a plague of locusts too.

Are we sure there were only four Horsemen?

Terry Pratchett had 5.

Edit and the 5th was Kaos. Or Donald Trump as he is called these days.

Jonathan

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

He’s a political Del Boy.

kinabalu

Interesting header. My take as below -

I think Brexit caused Corbyn to overperform in 2017 and underperform in 2019. Take that special factor away, run an election with Corbyn's Labour against Generic Tory, and their par score is 250 seats. Meaning that Corbyn was unelectable but not quite as disastrously so as Dec 12th would superficially imply. Let's go deeper. How many seats did Corbyn the man cost as opposed to his policies? I judge 25. From this we can deduce that Radical Labour with a better leader (e.g. Starmer) wins 275 seats. Now let us lose the 1970s reactionary vibe from the policies, i.e. assume a manifesto that is "socialist" but in a form bespoke tailored for the age we live in. For me, this wins 50 additional seats. So we are now at 325. Not quite there. But not to worry - the next GE will be fought in a climate of intense disenchantment at the state of post Brexit, post Covid Britain. And it will be in a state, such is becoming clear. This delivers a further 30 seats to Labour. 355. A comfortable working majority and a strong mandate for transformational change in favour of neglected people in neglected places. Or to put it another way, Up The Workers! Let's hope they deliver this time.

OldKingCole

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

You don't mind the lies, then?

squareroot2

nichomar said:

If your Spanish is up to it RTVE have an excellent thread running with up to the minute global covid news providing far more info than BBC or Sky. It’s interesting that they seem to release more detail far quicker in Spain than in the UK.

that's because they are most likely like like Sky and report unchecked "facts" never wrong for long eh!

Luckyguy1983

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

TheScreamingEagles

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

It reminded me of this

Once upon a time the Island of Okinawa had a snake problem. It was overrun by vicious, venomous, vipers called habus. They are surly critters, quick to bite, and their venom can kill. So in 1910 someone had the bright idea of importing a few small Asian mongooses, because, as anyone who has read Kipling's Rikki-Tikki-Tavi knows, mongooses are excellent at killing snakes.

The only problem was that the habu is a nocturnal and the mongoose is diurnal, so their paths never really crossed. So instead of fighting snakes the mongooses started eating other reptiles, birds, and insects. Okinawa still has a snake problem, and now it has a mongoose problem as well.

IanB2

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

BREAKING:

Locusts - 48%
Ducks - 25%
Don't Know - 27%

Eliminating the Don't Knows, the Locusts lead 66%:34%

david_herdson

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

It is, actually.

With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.

AlastairMeeks

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

I have a solution to that which involves pancakes.

Casino_Royale

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

squareroot2 said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

I did.. it was about an article during the week where the chinese are trying to use 100,000 ducks to control 10 billion iirc not million locusts.. the locusts will win

Maybe it was a billion locusts. I cant remember how many there were in the question but it sounded like a lot, so I chose them.

The article from the BBC quotes someone from a Chinese Agricultural College pointing out that these are desert locusts and that ducks rather like water. Sounds like a flaw to me.

Maybe they could find a few bears to shit in the woods.

Might put the locusts off.

Jonathan

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

It is, actually.

With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.

Which position would you rather be in?

isam

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

He’s a political Del Boy.

Blimey, that would backfire like like the Cameron "Ashes to Ashes" 'insult' times a million!

IshmaelZ

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

Nothing to worry about: I trust the Chinese implicitly in relation to any dealings with non-human animal species.

IanB2

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

It is, actually.

With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.

On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.

Nigelb

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

They eat the ducks afterwards ?
Apparently each duck can eat 100 locusts a day, and they have been used before with some success. They take out the immature locusts before they can fly.

DavidL

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

I know an old woman who swallowed a fly....

DavidL

isam said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

He’s a political Del Boy.

Blimey, that would backfire like like the Cameron "Ashes to Ashes" 'insult' times a million!

Fire up the quattro!

That was hilarious.

RobD

A great map showing how China's economy has basically stopped:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

TheScreamingEagles

O/T - Why is the plural of mongoose not mongeeses but mongooses?

FF43

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

Apart from winning the landslide bit, Corbyn supporters use exactly the same words about their man. The disservice is greater with Johnson however precisely because of that landslide result.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

It is, actually.

With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.

Which position would you rather be in?

Come now, Mr Kojak and Mr Goodhew. I'm sure we can find a comb for each of you... no need to make a scene.

Foxy

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Following on from this story:

https://www.dw.com/en/china-says-sending-locust-eating-duck-army-to-pakistan-actually-not-the-best-idea/a-52559122

Perhaps not ideal at present in desert conditions, but not completely absurd. Ducks can eat 200 locusts a day.

Philip_Thompson

FF43 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

Apart from winning the landslide bit, Corbyn use exactly the same words about their man. The disservice is greater with Johnson however precisely because of that landslide result.

And if Corbyn had won an election let alone a very healthy majority then it would be fair enough.

Instead Corbyn and his supporters led to their own side being completely marginalised and power going to their opponents. To the victor goes the spoils.

DavidL

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Following on from this story:

https://www.dw.com/en/china-says-sending-locust-eating-duck-army-to-pakistan-actually-not-the-best-idea/a-52559122

Perhaps not ideal at present in desert conditions, but not completely absurd. Ducks can eat 200 locusts a day.

So can humans. They fry up quite nicely, allegedly.

williamglenn

On topic, 2017 is the only time I've ever voted Labour.

SirNorfolkPassmore

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T - Why is the plural of mongoose not mongeeses but mongooses?

Aren't the etymologies different for goose (Old English) and mongoose (Hindi)?

Casino_Royale

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

It is, actually.

With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.

Which position would you rather be in?

Missionary.

IshmaelZ

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T - Why is the plural of mongoose not mongeeses but mongooses?

For the same reason he wasn't called Rikkus Tikkus Tavus.

Philip_Thompson

OldKingCole said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

You don't mind the lies, then?

I don't see lies, I see differences of opinion most of the time people claim a so-called lie.

Casino_Royale

RobD said:

A great map showing how China's economy has basically stopped:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

Wonder how many will be saved the other way by the cut in air pollution?

TheScreamingEagles

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T - Why is the plural of mongoose not mongeeses but mongooses?

Aren't the etymologies different for goose (Old English) and mongoose (Hindi)?

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

O/T - Why is the plural of mongoose not mongeeses but mongooses?

For the same reason he wasn't called Rikkus Tikkus Tavus.

Thank you both.

david_herdson

IanB2 said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Jonathan said:

Could be worse. Could be the Lib Dems.

Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.

Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.

It is, actually.

With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.

On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.

True - although not all that far off other recent elections:

Year - MPs - candidates - % - votes/candidate

2019 - 11 - 611 - 11.6 - 6050
2017 - 12 - 629 - 7.4 - 3771
2015 - 8 - 631 - 7.9 - 3829
2010 - 57 - 631 - 23.0 - 10835
2005 - 62 - 626 - 22.0 - 9561
2001 - 52 - 639 - 18.3 - 7534
1997 - 46 - 639 - 16.8 - 8205
1992 - 20 - 632 - 17.8 - 9493
1987 - 22 - 633 - 22.6 - 11598
1983 - 23 - 636 - 25.4 - 12256
1979 - 11 - 577 - 13.8 - 7476
1974O - 13 - 619 - 18.3 - 8638
1974F - 14 - 517 - 19.3 - 11721
1970 - 6 - 332 - 7.5 - 6377
1966 - 12 - 311 - 8.5 - 7484
1964 - 9 - 365 - 11.2 - 8491
1959 - 6 - 216 - 5.9 -7596
1955 - 6 - 110 - 2.7 - 6567
1951 - 6 - 109 - 2.6 - 6702
1950 - 9 - 475 - 9.1 - 5519
1945 - 12 - 306 - 9.0 - 7117
1935 - 21 - 161 - 6.7 - 8783
1931 - 33 - 112 - 6.5 - 12023
1929 - 59 - 513 - 23.6 - 9951
1924 - 40 - 339 - 17.8 - 8315
1923 - 158 - 457 - 29.7 - 9037
1922 - 62 - 334 - 18.9 - 7789
1918 - 36 - 277 - 13.0 - 4893
1910D - 271 - 467 - 43.2 - 4619
1910J - 274 - 511 - 40.9 - 5308
1906 - 397 - 528 - 48.9 - 4859
1900 - 183 - 402 - 44.7 - 3911
1895 - 177 - 447 - 45.7 - 3949
1892 - 271 - 535 - 45.4 - 3903
1886 - 191 - 449 - 45.5 - 3015

northernpowerhouse2

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

That just isn’t cricket.
(That’s a really subtle and clever joke... but since I’m explaining it, it might not be).

IshmaelZ

Henrietta2 said:

My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get:
2 March 10700
5 March 23700
7 March 42400
9 March 79100
12 March 217000
10^6th case 17 March
10^7th case, 22 March
10^8th case, 27 March
10^9th case, 31 March
...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April.
Happy Easter!

10^10 is more than there are actual people, surely?

geoffw

MikeSmithson said:

Casino_Royale said:

david_herdson said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

First.

On your own thread? I sure that means you are disqualified.

Mike published it, not me. I just saw his tweet.

Everyone loves the glory of being first.

I've often thought of a PB service where for, say, £10 a time, posters get a two minute notice that a new thread has gone up before I Tweet it. This would help support the site and give people the pleasure and bragging rights of being able to write First.

OGH selling indulgences. Could lead to a PB reformation.

isam

DavidL said:

isam said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FF43 said:

DavidL said:

Those that supported Corbyn, including our own Nick, did the country a gave disservice.

Personally I think those that supported and continue to support Johnson, including half of PB commentators, do the country a greater disservice. Johnson is the one we ended up with.

I agree with the topic header. I point out that Tony Blair tacked quite left when he was trying to be leader. Starmer may or may not follow a similar trajectory.

On the PS, Trump was the insurgent who would take America away from the direction it was going in, kick ass, do deals and drain the swamp. Being the incumbent pointing to his record when he hasn't done the deals and drained the swamp.

I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.

He’s a political Del Boy.

Blimey, that would backfire like like the Cameron "Ashes to Ashes" 'insult' times a million!

Fire up the quattro!

That was hilarious.

At the time I voted Labour and was arguing that it was better to have someone dour and unflashy like Gordo in charge at a time of such crisis. I convinced myself the public felt the same too.

DavidL

RobD said:

A great map showing how China's economy has basically stopped:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

Those are truly remarkable images. Just astonishing.

nichomar

squareroot2 said:

nichomar said:

If your Spanish is up to it RTVE have an excellent thread running with up to the minute global covid news providing far more info than BBC or Sky. It’s interesting that they seem to release more detail far quicker in Spain than in the UK.

that's because they are most likely like like Sky and report unchecked "facts" never wrong for long eh!

Actually most of what they report is from government sources around the world with little speculation. One of the most interesting set of infections is from those that went to Milan for a football match on 19/2 which has resulted in 10 cases to date all but one went to the game but there is now signs of transmission on return. Weather in Valencia very much like a UK spring.

CorrectHorseBattery

kinabalu said:

Interesting header. My take as below -

I think Brexit caused Corbyn to overperform in 2017 and underperform in 2019. Take that special factor away, run an election with Corbyn's Labour against Generic Tory, and their par score is 250 seats. Meaning that Corbyn was unelectable but not quite as disastrously so as Dec 12th would superficially imply. Let's go deeper. How many seats did Corbyn the man cost as opposed to his policies? I judge 25. From this we can deduce that Radical Labour with a better leader (e.g. Starmer) wins 275 seats. Now let us lose the 1970s reactionary vibe from the policies, i.e. assume a manifesto that is "socialist" but in a form bespoke tailored for the age we live in. For me, this wins 50 additional seats. So we are now at 325. Not quite there. But not to worry - the next GE will be fought in a climate of intense disenchantment at the state of post Brexit, post Covid Britain. And it will be in a state, such is becoming clear. This delivers a further 30 seats to Labour. 355. A comfortable working majority and a strong mandate for transformational change in favour of neglected people in neglected places. Or to put it another way, Up The Workers! Let's hope they deliver this time.

This would require the largest swing in history.

I think a minority Government is possible on a 5.5% swing, with a pact with the LDs - but a majority Government seems impossible.

Although I never thought the SNP would win a landslide in 2015, so perhaps they collapse over the next five years, who knows.

A minority Government seems feasible.

geoffw

RobD said:

A great map showing how China's economy has basically stopped:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

CoVid-19 -> economic slump -> cleaner air -> improved health outcomes.

state_go_away

IanB2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

BREAKING:

Locusts - 48%
Ducks - 25%
Don't Know - 27%

Eliminating the Don't Knows, the Locusts lead 66%:34%

That question is the equivalent of a maths question as to who would win a Grahams number of SAS or a Tree(3) number of ants .?
Grahams Number and Tree(3) are notorious in maths as being massive uncomputable numbers that have been used in maths proofs!

Luckyguy1983

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Following on from this story:

https://www.dw.com/en/china-says-sending-locust-eating-duck-army-to-pakistan-actually-not-the-best-idea/a-52559122

Perhaps not ideal at present in desert conditions, but not completely absurd. Ducks can eat 200 locusts a day.

So can humans. They fry up quite nicely, allegedly.

I think China moved past cannibalism after the cultural revolution.

another_richard

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

A great map showing how China's economy has basically stopped:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

Wonder how many will be saved the other way by the cut in air pollution?

Likewise people taking more care about hygiene and learning how to wash their hands correctly.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1233701403689963521?s=20
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1233711983888916480?s=20

isam

DavidL said:

RobD said:

A great map showing how China's economy has basically stopped:

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

Those are truly remarkable images. Just astonishing.

We need to factor in the lives saved by this lack of pollution when worrying about the virus!

The lack of every cloud...

CorrectHorseBattery

Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?

another_richard

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?

Not a chance.

Why are you even asking ?

Barnesian

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1233701403689963521?s=20
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1233711983888916480?s=20

What would happen, in practice, if the Home Office Civil Service went on strike, or a 9-5 work to rule?

CorrectHorseBattery

another_richard said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?

Not a chance.

Why are you even asking ?

Their vote share keeps going up.

IshmaelZ

Henrietta2 said:

IshmaelZ said:

Henrietta2 said:

My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get:
2 March 10700
5 March 23700
7 March 42400
9 March 79100
12 March 217000
10^6th case 17 March
10^7th case, 22 March
10^8th case, 27 March
10^9th case, 31 March
...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April.
Happy Easter!

10^10 is more than there are actual people, surely?

Yes it is - hence the comment for 4 April rather than the figure.

Ah!

Presumably if you did a similar sum for the rate at which rabbits breed, since rabbits first evolved, you could show that the amount of rabbit mass would by now have become enough to turn the planet into a star.

Barnesian

CorrectHorseBattery said:

another_richard said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?

Not a chance.

Why are you even asking ?

Their vote share keeps going up.

The FTSE 100 kept going up.

EDIT: .. until it didn't.

isam

another_richard said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?

Not a chance.

Why are you even asking ?

Sadly I think it's so, in 4 years time, people can say "PB Tories were predicting 50%" when Boris starts his second term having got just over 40%

state_go_away

Barnesian said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1233701403689963521?s=20
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1233711983888916480?s=20

What would happen, in practice, if the Home Office Civil Service went on strike, or a 9-5 work to rule?

Would anyone notice?

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233711232076701697?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233712498643214337?s=20

I wonder if Amber Rudd will be called as a witness?

kinabalu

CorrectHorseBattery said:

This would require the largest swing in history.

I think a minority Government is possible on a 5.5% swing, with a pact with the LDs - but a majority Government seems impossible.

Although I never thought the SNP would win a landslide in 2015, so perhaps they collapse over the next five years, who knows.

A minority Government seems feasible.

That is the realistic target, I agree. But the wild card factor is just how bad it might get in this country over the next few years. And if so, how much skill and competence does the government have to draw upon to mitigate and manage it. There is more than a whiff of inadequacy around this administration and - in particular - around this PM. An 80 seat majority, yes, but I sense feet of clay. It won't take much to blow this house down and what's coming will IMO be more than sufficient.

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233711232076701697?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233712498643214337?s=20

I wonder if Amber Rudd will be called as a witness?

And Sajid Javed.

oxfordsimon

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233711232076701697?s=20
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1233712498643214337?s=20

I wonder if Amber Rudd will be called as a witness?

Yes, it sounds horrendously dyfunctional - but I am not sure that builds a case for constructive dismissal.

noneoftheabove

IanB2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

FPT:

Did a YouGov survey this morning.

The question of the moment: "Which would win, 100,000 ducks or ten million locusts?"

Err, win what?

.
Win Pakistan.

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports.

Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51658145

What a brilliant initiative! Always assuming it doesn't result in a plague of ducks

BREAKING:

Locusts - 48%
Ducks - 25%
Don't Know - 27%

Eliminating the Don't Knows, the Locusts lead 66%:34%

Anyone not answering dont know doesnt know the definition of dont know.