Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
In 1951 and 1955 the Liberals contested fewer than 20% of the seats.
My case rests, therefore.
Although the defence might argue that in such a circumstance the 20% were chosen as their better prospects, rather than a random selection.
The fragmentation of two party politics initially helped the Liberals / Alliance / LibDems but now hurts them as the non Con/Lab vote itself fragments.
The Labour Party - and specifically its left wing - baulked at keeping its promise to honour its own appointed Jenkins commission and introduce a fairer voting system, because they thought they’d rather enjoy the benefit of majority power in alternation with the Tories. After ten years in opposition, and the prospect of at least another five to ten years before they get another sniff at power (which most commentators expect to be subject to a deal with the SNP or LibDems), their judgement back in the 1990s doesn’t appear to have been so clever.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses,
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
A good summary, but I recall that herpes viruses are DNA viruses, while Coronavirus is an RNA virus. Herpes viruses include several other persisting species (CMV, EBV), but RNA viruses do not persist, with the exception of HIV, which has the capacity to reverse transcribe DNA.
The more mutation prone RNA viruses can have quite speedy antigenic drift and shift. It sounds like the Italian outbreak has drifted rather than shifted.
I can’t get Google Translate to put this into English.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
In 1951 and 1955 the Liberals contested fewer than 20% of the seats.
My case rests, therefore.
Although the defence might argue that in such a circumstance the 20% were chosen as their better prospects, rather than a random selection.
The fragmentation of two party politics initially helped the Liberals / Alliance / LibDems but now hurts them as the non Con/Lab vote itself fragments.
The Labour Party - and specifically its left wing - baulked at keeping its promise to honour its own appointed Jenkins commission and introduce a fairer voting system, because they thought they’d rather enjoy the benefit of majority power in alternation with the Tories. After ten years in opposition, and the prospect of at least another five to ten years before they get another sniff at power (which most commentators expect to be subject to a deal with the SNP or LibDems), their judgement back in the 1990s doesn’t appear to have been so clever.
IIRC the main opponent, in Cabinet anyway, was John Prescott, rather the the 'left wing'. Otherwise I agree.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
Might it possibly be because civil servants have worked through the problems for more than a glass of wine (or five) over dinner? And have worked in the department for more than a month or two?
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
Isn’t that how British government is supposed to work?
The people with the knowledge and expertise persuade the people picked at random off the street to make sensible decisions.
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will recognise when the same virus returns to the patient and will kill the virus more rapidly than it can replicate. Meaning that infection and full recovery results in immunity. A few people do not work up immunity, but such cases are rare enough to have a negligible effect on the spread of a pandemic.
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
IANAE but in papers linked to through this site it has been suggested by those who are that some corona viruses can reinfect and some don't and it is not entirely clear why. It seemed to be to do with which cells were damaged/diminished. It was not clear at the time that was written which category this particular virus came into but there are a suspicious number of reports of those who test negatively for the virus after infection and then subsequently test positive again.
I've read that the test gives a lot of false negatives, up to 30% IIRC. It could be a feature of the test rather than the virus.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
Seems to me that it would be odd for a Civil Servant of many years, to throw away their career on something they didn't think was worth it.
Vs Priti Patel, who did deeply dodgy stuff in positions before in the Government, has backed dodgy positions in the past and says moronic things that don't make sense.
I think on the grounds of evidence, I will back the Civil Service.
Isn’t that how British government is supposed to work?
The people with the knowledge and expertise persuade the people picked at random off the street to make sensible decisions.
Yes and no. For ever and a time, there has been a reputation / stereotype that senior civil servants go above and beyond checks and balances role i.e rather than genuinely looking at if an idea is feasible, they act as a road block to significant change.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
Isn’t that how British government is supposed to work?
The people with the knowledge and expertise persuade the people picked at random off the street to make sensible decisions.
That assumes the 'people with knowledge and expertise' actually have knowledge and expertise and are not incompetent, subject to group think or pursuing their own agenda.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Until recently they may have been widely respected as strong leaders. Now we have research that shows that management approach is ineffective it should be addressed rather than left alone because they have always been like that.
I wonder if Amber Rudd will be called as a witness?
Yes, it sounds horrendously dyfunctional - but I am not sure that builds a case for constructive dismissal.
I think he has a very robust case for constructive dismissal. There's absolutely no secret that Patel wanted him out and had no grounds to fire him. She and/or her associates then aggressively briefed against him with the media. From his statement, it appears he was offered a pay off and refused it.
There may have also been briefing from supporters of his but, unless there is a smoking gun linking him personally to that, it makes very little difference to the claim.
Sounds about right to me. No doubt there is right and wrong on both sides, but on the plain facts claimed, his employer does not appear to have followed procedure the law requires.
Which procedures did they not follow?
I am not sure that anyone on here can make a judgement on this as it is a question of law isn't it? Most employees have grumbles with their bosses from time to time , its part of life and work .
Well he evidently was not dismissed for gross misconduct, for a start. And why was he offered a settlement ?
A settlement agreement I assume - standard at that level
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
Isn’t that how British government is supposed to work?
The people with the knowledge and expertise persuade the people picked at random off the street to make sensible decisions.
That assumes the 'people with knowledge and expertise' actually have knowledge and expertise and are not incompetent, subject to group think or pursuing their own agenda.
Perish the thought that the people picked off the street might suffer from any of these?
Why would people pay for what they can get free elsewhere?
Now, if they start selling international subscriptions, they’ll make a fortune.
Err, they do. This was for a UK version of Britbox. It launched here in the US and other countries.
It’s UK, US and Canada only at the moment. Rather annoying for those of us based elsewhere, although rather good for an acquaintance of mine who makes a healthy living providing ‘other’ ways to watch British TV.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
This is why Gove / Cummings at education caused so many waves. They actually came to education having done a lot of research, and we know that Cummings can start an argument in an empty lift, but does consume masses of information on subjects that he becomes interested in.
So when they got the usual civil service response "its not possible, that won't work, we have looked at it", I think they met their match.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
Until the last couple of years being a senior minister in charge of a department in chaos would have been quite bad for their career so there was an incentive to keep things in house. Nowadays the more controversy the better for your career it seems.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
It's sad that you hate your country in this way. I have enormous admiration and respect for the way that it functions - truly world class for centuries. The suggestion that everything was crap until the likes of Boris, Cummings and Patel turned up is grotesque.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses,
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus
A good summary, but I recall that herpes viruses are DNA viruses, while Coronavirus is an RNA virus. Herpes viruses include several other persisting species (CMV, EBV), but RNA viruses do not persist, with the exception of HIV, which has the capacity to reverse transcribe DNA.
The more mutation prone RNA viruses can have quite speedy antigenic drift and shift. It sounds like the Italian outbreak has drifted rather than shifted.
I can’t get Google Translate to put this into English.
The short version is that Herpesviruses (a family that includes chicken pox/shingles, cold sores, genital herpes, glandular fever and cytomegalovirus) have their genetic material in the form of double stranded DNA. They seem to persist, hibernating in host cells.
RNA is an intermediary used single stranded to transform DNA Gene's to proteins. It is less stable, so can change more quickly.
This means RNA virus are able to change their surface proteins, relatively quickly, like Flu. This is why we need different Flu vaccines each year. This change does not necessarily mean more severe.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Until recently they may have been widely respected as strong leaders. Now we have research that shows that management approach is ineffective it should be addressed rather than left alone because they have always been like that.
Oddly enough I was doing a CPD course on the advantages of praise in management last week.
But the cynic in me remembers that the last decade has hardly been a golden age in management or productivity growth.
Different techniques and strategies are likely needed in different situations.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive. Which is the principal allegation against Priti Patel.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
It is possible for both Patel to be an abusive bully and Rutnam not up to the job.
Shipman says much of the briefing from the Home Office was anti-Patel.
That’s the fundamental issue
Civil servants should not be briefing against their ministers
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Until recently they may have been widely respected as strong leaders. Now we have research that shows that management approach is ineffective it should be addressed rather than left alone because they have always been like that.
A few years ago Patel accused a small group of demonstrators who turned up at her constituency office– some of whom were elderly and or disabled – of being a “thuggish gang”. IIRC the average age was about 65, with some in wheelchairs. She never answered the group's concerns.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
It's sad that you hate your country in this way. I have enormous admiration and respect for the way that it functions - truly world class for centuries. The suggestion that everything was crap until the likes of Boris, Cummings and Patel turned up is grotesque.
Saddam Hussein has WMD. Immigration from Eastern European will be 13,000 max per annum. Nothing is happening in Rotherham ditto others. Stafford hospital is safe ditto others. Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person ditto others. The banks are well run. Politicians expenses are honest. Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair. Kids Company is a deserving charity.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses,
There are but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus
A good summary, but I recall that herpes viruses are DNA viruses, while Coronavirus is an RNA virus. Herpes viruses include several other persisting species (CMV, EBV), but RNA viruses do not persist, with the exception of HIV, which has the capacity to reverse transcribe DNA.
The more mutation prone RNA viruses can have quite speedy antigenic drift and shift. It sounds like the Italian outbreak has drifted rather than shifted.
I can’t get Google Translate to put this into English.
The short version is that Herpesviruses (a family that includes chicken pox/shingles, cold sores, genital herpes, glandular fever and cytomegalovirus) have their genetic material in the form of double stranded DNA. They seem to persist, hibernating in host cells.
RNA is an intermediary used single stranded to transform DNA Gene's to proteins. It is less stable, so can change more quickly.
This means RNA virus are able to change their surface proteins, relatively quickly, like Flu. This is why we need different Flu vaccines each year. This change does not necessarily mean more severe.
Surely the destiny for Coronavirus is that it will add itself to the spectrum of flu viruses that spread themselves about every winter, killing many already ill pensioners without meanwhile creating any extra work for our tabloid headlines writers?
And we can look back on this spring and its pronouncements of imminent global doom from the likes of SeanT - and wonder what came over us all?
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive. Which is the principal allegation against Priti Patel.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
It is possible for both Patel to be an abusive bully and Rutnam not up to the job.
Shipman says much of the briefing from the Home Office was anti-Patel.
That’s the fundamental issue
Civil servants should not be briefing against their ministers
Of course they shouldnt. And ministers should equally not be briefing against civil servants. And it gets murky if a minister is demanding a civil servant breaks the law. Then an off the record press briefing might be the best way to protect themself and the rule of law. No-one involved should come out of this with credit.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Until recently they may have been widely respected as strong leaders. Now we have research that shows that management approach is ineffective it should be addressed rather than left alone because they have always been like that.
A few years ago Patel accused a small group of demonstrators who turned up at her constituency office– some of whom were elderly and or disabled – of being a “thuggish gang”. IIRC the average age was about 65, with some in wheelchairs. She never answered the group's concerns.
One in five students would be financially better off if they skipped higher education, according to groundbreaking research that compares the lifetime earnings of graduates and non-graduates.
Arent these comparisons missing the point that 18 year olds who go on to university would (on average) be significantly higher earners than current non graduates if they left formal education at 18.
Id be surprised if the majority of 18 year olds who are going into university currently are making a +ve expected value decision.
If you add options for home learning and gaining accreditations in the workplace, most youngsters are going to university for a mix of parental and societal expectations and an opportunity to try something different rather than economic reasons.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive. Which is the principal allegation against Priti Patel.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
It is possible for both Patel to be an abusive bully and Rutnam not up to the job.
Shipman says much of the briefing from the Home Office was anti-Patel.
That’s the fundamental issue
Civil servants should not be briefing against their ministers
Not sure I’ve ever seen a resigning career civil servant hold a press conference before, as we’ve seen today. He seems determined that the Home Office’s dirty laundry be aired in public.
One of the biggest mistakes the government made when they altered the fees / loan system, was not to implement future incentives for getting a degree in certain subjects e.g. I would have had something like do a medical degree and every year you work for the NHS, the government will write off x% of your loan. Same with say similar for those that do a STEM degree and then want to do teacher qualification, every year in a state school, write off x%.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
And I had you down as a man of the conservative persuasion.
You are describing the checks and balances of our system of government, that have through history mostly avoided the revolutionary swings that have afflicted so many of our European neighbours.
The same way that the Americans have created a system that allows complete idiots to be elected as President who then find that on their own there is next to no damage they can do, other than to their country’s reputation abroad.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
This is why Gove / Cummings at education caused so many waves. They actually came to education having done a lot of research, and we know that Cummings can start an argument in an empty lift, but does consume masses of information on subjects that he becomes interested in.
So when they got the usual civil service response "its not possible, that won't work, we have looked at it", I think they met their match.
That no doubt explains why education is in such a fantastic place since Goves / Cummings fixed it.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
And I had you down as a man of the conservative persuasion.
You are describing the checks and balances of our system of government, that have through history mostly avoided the revolutionary swings that have afflicted so many of our European neighbours.
The same way that the Americans have created a system that allows complete idiots to be elected as President who then find that on their own there is next to no damage they can do, other than to their country’s reputation abroad.
The problem is that we did have an immigration revolution and that is why we are having a Brexit revolution.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
This is why Gove / Cummings at education caused so many waves. They actually came to education having done a lot of research, and we know that Cummings can start an argument in an empty lift, but does consume masses of information on subjects that he becomes interested in.
So when they got the usual civil service response "its not possible, that won't work, we have looked at it", I think they met their match.
That no doubt explains why education is in such a fantastic place since Goves / Cummings fixed it.
Oh...
Pisa test results 2019: England rises up global education rankings with maths improvement
The latest tests were carried out last year, and show that youngsters in England significantly improved in maths, performing well above the OECD average.
England was ranked 17 in the table for maths, up from 26 in 2015.
Pupils in England also outperformed the OECD average in reading and science.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
It's sad that you hate your country in this way. I have enormous admiration and respect for the way that it functions - truly world class for centuries. The suggestion that everything was crap until the likes of Boris, Cummings and Patel turned up is grotesque.
Saddam Hussein has WMD. Immigration from Eastern European will be 13,000 max per annum. Nothing is happening in Rotherham ditto others. Stafford hospital is safe ditto others. Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person ditto others. The banks are well run. Politicians expenses are honest. Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair. Kids Company is a deserving charity.
Makes one wonder what the price of strawberries was all about.
In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will recognise when the same virus returns to the patient and will kill the virus more rapidly than it can replicate. Meaning that infection and full recovery results in immunity. A few people do not work up immunity, but such cases are rare enough to have a negligible effect on the spread of a pandemic.
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however
IANAE but in papers linked to through this site it has been suggested by those who are that some corona viruses can reinfect and some don't and it is not entirely clear why. It seemed to be to do with which cells were damaged/diminished. It was not clear at the time that was written which category this particular virus came into but there are a suspicious number of reports of those who test negatively for the virus after infection and then subsequently test positive again.
I've read that the test gives a lot of false negatives, up to 30% IIRC. It could be a feature of the test rather than the virus.
As well as issues around sensitivity, the tests may be identifying dead virus fragments, rather than live virus.
Given that Yes, Minister was more than 30 years ago, and many people who have been involved in government have said it was a good documentary, it’s quite amazing that the sort of blowup we have seen at the HO doesn’t happen a lot more often.
This is why Gove / Cummings at education caused so many waves. They actually came to education having done a lot of research, and we know that Cummings can start an argument in an empty lift, but does consume masses of information on subjects that he becomes interested in.
So when they got the usual civil service response "its not possible, that won't work, we have looked at it", I think they met their match.
That no doubt explains why education is in such a fantastic place since Goves / Cummings fixed it.
Oh...
Stopping the two decades of grade inflation was certainly an achievement.
Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?
Not a chance.
Why are you even asking ?
Their vote share keeps going up.
The thing to remember is that there is a good chance that practically every reason why the Tories did well in 2019 will no longer apply in 2024.
- The fear of Brexit being stopped will be gone. - The actual Brexit result will have crystallised around a new reality rather than still being a hypothetical. As such it will undoubtedly please some whilst upsetting others. - Corbyn will no longer be the Leader of the Opposition and Starmer (if indeed it is he) will be a far more electable choice - even if I can't stand the bloke. - The economic and employment cycle will almost certainly have moved against the Tories. - Boris will have been in power for 5 years rather than 5 months so will not be able to hide from any bad Government decisions and pretend they were nothing to do with him.
I don't think this means Boris will lose. But I do think that, black swans excepted, it will be far more of a contest than 2019 was.
Would have thought so.
Lots of people voted Tory to "Get Brexit Done", hence they won so easily. I would have thought there are many voters, like myself, who are excited to see what all parties have to offer in post EU Britain, sans excuses of hands tied by Brussels
Having done the dirty deed once and survived, I suspect many former Labour 'til I die voters might just do it again.
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will recognise when the same virus returns to the patient and will kill the virus more rapidly than it can replicate. Meaning that infection and full recovery results in immunity. A few people do not work up immunity, but such cases are rare enough to have a negligible effect on the spread of a pandemic.
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however
IANAE but in papers linked to through this site it has been suggested by those who are that some corona viruses can reinfect and some don't and it is not entirely clear why. It seemed to be to do with which cells were damaged/diminished. It was not clear at the time that was written which category this particular virus came into but there are a suspicious number of reports of those who test negatively for the virus after infection and then subsequently test positive again.
I've read that the test gives a lot of false negatives, up to 30% IIRC. It could be a feature of the test rather than the virus.
As well as issues around sensitivity, the tests may be identifying dead virus fragments, rather than live virus.
One of the biggest mistakes the government made when they altered the fees / loan system, was not to implement future incentives for getting a degree in certain subjects e.g. I would have had something like do a medical degree and every year you work for the NHS, the government will write off x% of your loan. Same with say similar for those that do a STEM degree and then want to do teacher qualification, every year in a state school, write off x%.
What if the graduate is a pharmacist and moves between hospital, Boots and self-employment?
In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
One of the biggest mistakes the government made when they altered the fees / loan system, was not to implement future incentives for getting a degree in certain subjects e.g. I would have had something like do a medical degree and every year you work for the NHS, the government will write off x% of your loan. Same with say similar for those that do a STEM degree and then want to do teacher qualification, every year in a state school, write off x%.
What if the graduate is a pharmacist and moves between hospital, Boots and self-employment?
Obviously the policy would need to look at such edge cases, but my point was more about providing incentives to subjects which the nation needs (and are expensive to study / put on) and to provide a nudge against those being trained on very expensive courses from benefiting then moving abroad or into private sector e.g. Dentists being the classic, it seems like the standard path of travel is come out of uni, do NHS work to gain experience, set up a private practice ASAP.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses,
There are but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus
A good summary, but I
I can’t get Google Translate to put this into English.
The short version is that Herpesviruses (a family that includes chicken pox/shingles, cold sores, genital herpes, glandular fever and cytomegalovirus) have their genetic material in the form of double stranded DNA. They seem to persist, hibernating in host cells.
RNA is an intermediary used single stranded to transform DNA Gene's to proteins. It is less stable, so can change more quickly.
This means RNA virus are able to change their surface proteins, relatively quickly, like Flu. This is why we need different Flu vaccines each year. This change does not necessarily mean more severe.
Surely the destiny for Coronavirus is that it will add itself to the spectrum of flu viruses that spread themselves about every winter, killing many already ill pensioners without meanwhile creating any extra work for our tabloid headlines writers?
And we can look back on this spring and its pronouncements of imminent global doom from the likes of SeanT - and wonder what came over us all?
Yes it may be a long term issue, or it might just mutate into a harmless form, which does tend to be the usual pattern.
Drift is a gradual change (as ii seems in the Italian Covid19) so has a lot in common with the original form. Hence pevious infection should give some protection, as in Flu.
Shift is a more radical change, which the host has no immunity to, so is potentially more dangerous. We see this occasionally with influenza, hence the Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, etc and is much worse than the seasonal flu.
Why would people pay for what they can get free elsewhere?
Now, if they start selling international subscriptions, they’ll make a fortune.
Err, they do. This was for a UK version of Britbox. It launched here in the US and other countries.
It’s UK, US and Canada only at the moment. Rather annoying for those of us based elsewhere, although rather good for an acquaintance of mine who makes a healthy living providing ‘other’ ways to watch British TV.
The major glitch, I believe, is that the BBC makes a shedload of cash selling its output to foreign broadcasters (eg old style Top Gear making 50m a year).
Britbox massively undermines that.
I''m not sure how they can work around it.
Yes, there’s lots of issues around licensing the content - a lot of what’s shown on BBC is not actually owned by the BBC, and a lot of what is owned by them is currently profitable to be licenced elsewhere. Then there’s the few massive international hits such as Top Gear and Doctor Who, which earn a fortune. There’s also an awful lot of content that’s simply unavailable internationally, such as most of the daytime stuff.
But the market is changing, and more and more people are cutting the cable. Direct-to-consumer online content is going to be what TV looks like a few years down the line, but there’s going to be a lot of turbulence and failed business models on the way to getting there. The leaders in online content are going to be international sports, who are realising they can make more revenue selling directly than working with traditional broadcasters.
Lol imagine holding up education as an example of a Cummings achievement. I presume these people weren't in the education system when Gove was fucking it up.
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will recognise when the same virus returns to the patient and will kill the virus more rapidly than it can replicate. Meaning that infection and full recovery results in immunity. A few people do not work up immunity, but such cases are rare enough to have a negligible effect on the spread of a pandemic.
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however
IANAE but in papers linked to through this site it has been suggested by those who are that some corona viruses can reinfect and some don't and it is not entirely clear why. It seemed to be to do with which cells were damaged/diminished. It was not clear at the time that was written which category this particular virus came into but there are a suspicious number of reports of those who test negatively for the virus after infection and then subsequently test positive again.
I've read that the test gives a lot of false negatives, up to 30% IIRC. It could be a feature of the test rather than the virus.
As well as issues around sensitivity, the tests may be identifying dead virus fragments, rather than live virus.
Wouldn't that give you false positives?
Yes, and that may be part of the story with supposed relapses.
Lol imagine holding up education as an example of a Cummings achievement. I presume these people weren't in the education system when Gove was fucking it up.
For a total fuck up, now higher ranked in Pisa ratings and more kids (especially from poorer backgrounds) going to uni. 2010, UK was slipping down the rankings, despite increasingly levels of pupil spending in the previous decade.
Many of their ideas were right e.g. post A-Level uni applications. Now many Labour party support candidates support it and a recent report also said it was the best way of getting wider access etc.
But as we know Cummings doesn't play nice with others and causing the massive ructions doesn't really help get stuff done smoothly.
Surely the destiny for Coronavirus is that it will add itself to the spectrum of flu viruses that spread themselves about every winter, killing many already ill pensioners without meanwhile creating any extra work for our tabloid headlines writers?
And we can look back on this spring and its pronouncements of imminent global doom from the likes of SeanT - and wonder what came over us all?
It is now you vs every government and every epidemiologist and every commentator in the entire world*. You could still be right, of course, but in your position I'd find something else to vendet about.
Link about how the "LOL at all the panickers" brigade ended up looking in 1918. Not great.
Lol imagine holding up education as an example of a Cummings achievement. I presume these people weren't in the education system when Gove was fucking it up.
Maybe look at what Welsh Labour have done in Wales before opining on education fuck-ups.
Labour have had 20 years in power,and in charge of Welsh education. It ha been an impressive catalogue of failure, leaving Wales bottom of the 4 nations.
I fear the coronavirus is out of control in Italy, and now in France ttps://twitter.com/flolauvergnat/status/1233759149026091009?s=20
The real problem is Iran, where the reported numbers make even less sense than those that came out of China in the initial stages of the outbreak. Infected people from Iran are turning up all over the wider region, there appear to be little in the way of movement restrictions in place, and the medical system isn’t set up to deal with the scale of the problem.
1500 tests in the last day. Three times the number of tests the US conducted since the start of the outbreak (to Feb 28).
I think Starmer is talking bollocks. The government appears to be doing as good a job as can be reasonably expected in dealing with the coronavirus problem.
I fear the coronavirus is out of control in Italy, and now in France ttps://twitter.com/flolauvergnat/status/1233759149026091009?s=20
The real problem is Iran, where the reported numbers make even less sense than those that came out of China in the initial stages of the outbreak. Infected people from Iran are turning up all over the wider region, there appear to be little in the way of movement restrictions in place, and the medical system isn’t set up to deal with the scale of the problem.
Given the already large tensions between the regime and the public, I also fear they aren't going to be keen to listen to powers that be if they are told whole towns / cities are going to be forcibly quarantined in the way China has done it.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
1500 tests in the last day. Three times the number of tests the US conducted since the start of the outbreak (to Feb 28).
I think Starmer is talking bollocks. The government appears to be doing as good a job as can be reasonably expected in dealing with the coronavirus problem.
It is the media who drive this bollocks as much as any politician. See their outrage / government not doing enough over Libya evacuations or more recently things like Thomas Cook going bust / Wuhan flights....the media always really keen to say they are doing a shit job, aren't reacting fast enough and find an individual who hasn't followed the instructions but now outraged they have been left behind.
I don't think I have ever heard them turn round and say actually given the circumstances they have done ok here, and they have. All those Monarch and Thomas Cook passengers were really efficiently returned to the UK. Wuhan evacuation flights got basically everybody out who wanted to return, even those that first time around were being twats about things or that the Chinese took particular exception to.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
Lol imagine holding up education as an example of a Cummings achievement. I presume these people weren't in the education system when Gove was fucking it up.
Teachers oppose education reform everywhere in the world. Teachers unions opposed the reforms in Poland which saw it make leaps and bounds up the PISA rankings.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We did it before South Korea. We are scaling it up.
You need to be careful claiming out of control or that the UK has control. The key issue of control is how many infections come from those who have not been to high risk areas and with no obvious source of infection. If France had 72/75 infections from people who have been in one of those places it isn’t out of control it’s just they had a lot of people who went there.
A related point, does anyone know how the French are defining an enclosed space? Stad de France?
I fear the coronavirus is out of control in Italy, and now in France ttps://twitter.com/flolauvergnat/status/1233759149026091009?s=20
The real problem is Iran, where the reported numbers make even less sense than those that came out of China in the initial stages of the outbreak. Infected people from Iran are turning up all over the wider region, there appear to be little in the way of movement restrictions in place, and the medical system isn’t set up to deal with the scale of the problem.
Given the already large tensions between the regime and the public, I also fear they aren't going to be keen to listen to powers that be if they are told whole towns / cities are going to be forcibly quarantined in the way China has done it.
There’s probably a couple of orders of magnitude more cases than official figures suggest, there’s more Iranians arriving infected in neighbouring countries than in Iran itself - if you believe the Iranian numbers.
I’m not sure there’s any other country (well, maybe North Korea) that can lock down areas in the way that China has done. Countries, like Iran, with unstable or unpopular governments will find it almost impossible to effectively quarantine large numbers of people. Even in the UK there was an escapee from a quarantine centre, so now they’re having to police them like prisons.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You should take action if:
You have returned from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau and experience symptoms, however mild, within two weeks. You have returned from Northern Italy (defined by a line above and not including Pisa, Florence and Rimini), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos or Myanmar since February 19thand experience symptoms, however mild. You have returned from Iran, specific lockdown areas in Northern Italy or special care zones in South Korea since 19thFebruary, even if you don't have any symptoms. You have returned from Wuhan or Hubei Province of China in the last fourteen days. You have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case of coronavirus, even if you feel entirely well. If any of the above applies to you:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people. Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact. In England and Wales ring 111. In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours. In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885. Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician. Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital. Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
1500 tests in the last day. Three times the number of tests the US conducted since the start of the outbreak (to Feb 28).
I think Starmer is talking bollocks. The government appears to be doing as good a job as can be reasonably expected in dealing with the coronavirus problem.
It is the media who drive this bollocks as much as any politician. See their outrage / government not doing enough over Libya evacuations or more recently things like Thomas Cook going bust / Wuhan flights....the media always really keen to say they are doing a shit job, aren't reacting fast enough and find an individual who hasn't followed the instructions but now outraged they have been left behind.
I don't think I have ever heard them turn round and say actually given the circumstances they have done ok here, and they have. All those Monarch and Thomas Cook passengers were really efficiently returned to the UK. Wuhan evacuation flights got basically everybody out who wanted to return, even those that first time around were being twats about things or that the Chinese took particular exception to.
Enormous amounts of cant are spouted by the opposition and press who would criticise anything the goverment does. All that nonense about "why doesn't the PM visit the flooded areas, or call a Cobra meeting?" look bloody stupid now that there really is a good reason to call an emergency meeting for a truly exceptional crisis.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
I fear the coronavirus is out of control in Italy, and now in France ttps://twitter.com/flolauvergnat/status/1233759149026091009?s=20
The real problem is Iran, where the reported numbers make even less sense than those that came out of China in the initial stages of the outbreak.
Canadian epidemiologists estimate that the mid-point for the range of likely infections in Iran is 18,000. And that the Iranian government was slow to act because it didn't want public health measures to interfere with i) the anniversary of the revolution and ii) the election.
1500 tests in the last day. Three times the number of tests the US conducted since the start of the outbreak (to Feb 28).
I think Starmer is talking bollocks. The government appears to be doing as good a job as can be reasonably expected in dealing with the coronavirus problem.
A major health crisis should really be a time to put aside party politics and get everyone working together.
The problems are the leadership election which is going on, and that a number of the more Corbynite left-wingers always seek to politicise everything.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
Civil Servants are employees of the state and as such have the same employment protections as the rest of us. If Patel has acted lawfully she has nothing to fear. If she hasn't she needs to be taken to task for it.
You cannot ignore employment law simply when it suits your political agenda. I doubt a civil servant could simply refuse to do what a minister tells them to.
Certainly, there is no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater – but there is a need to throw out the bathwater.
It's a fair point. Fair enough not changing entirely, but even if they take a path different to what I might think they should so, there's still basic facts to confront rather than avoid.
Shouting and screaming is not “bullying”, in my book, even if it’s unpleasant.
I think Patel is probably the least qualified Home Secretary in my lifetime, worse than hapless Jacqui Smith, but mendacious and malevolent as well.
But not convinced yet Mr Rutnam has a cast iron case. Look forward to seeing the evidence.
There are very few occasions in an office environment that shouting and screaming would be warranted and thus such action is more likely to be bullying behaviour than not, in my view, but it depends very much on whether there was a pattern of behaviour to assess. Everyone blows up now and again, but a general approach of pettiness, viciousness, aggression or just low grade nastiness as a boss will show through and be indicative of a bully, whether or not there is screaming and shouting.
Sometimes people need a bollocking, and swearing can be useful when exercised appropriately to make a point. It's people who think to act like Malcolm Tucker that get my goat, people who seem to think reasonable manners are a weakness or that to be cool and powerful they need to rant and swear like the children of South Park.
We all know it is possible to be a good leader without screaming and shouting (habitually at any rate) so no one needs to do it. It's like caning children - its possible to control schoolkids without it, so choosing to do it is pathetic on top of being wrong.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
Has the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan not been annouced every six months for the last decade? They will most likely still be there in five years time imo.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
Civil Servants are employees of the state and as such have the same employment protections as the rest of us. If Patel has acted lawfully she has nothing to fear. If she hasn't she needs to be taken to task for it.
You cannot ignore employment law simply when it suits your political agenda.
Well exactly. However genuinely frustrating civil service intransigence may be other factors, like employment law and protections, do still apply. And not caring about that would only make it harder to actually get things done in the end as a government will be punished if it does not follow the rules on that properly. So Patel and others should make sure they do, giving no easy excuse for the civil service.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You need to be careful claiming out of control or that the UK has control. The key issue of control is how many infections come from those who have not been to high risk areas and with no obvious source of infection. If France had 72/75 infections from people who have been in one of those places it isn’t out of control it’s just they had a lot of people who went there.
A related point, does anyone know how the French are defining an enclosed space? Stad de France?
I too was wondering the "enclosed space" question. It's possible they've left it deliberately vague and the local prefects get to decide.
If it is all enclosed spaces, including stadia, then it is curtains for Le Foot.
Also, what about airports? A big terminal at CDG surely "contains" more than 5000 people?!
The Paris metro would seem the most high risk environment.
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
It is the sort of thing Fox News would be calling a surrender if Obama had done it.
Now Bin Laden is dead, achieved by Obama, Trump has correctly concluded the main aim of the original invasion has been achieved so he got a deal with the Taliban and is taking US forces out
Has the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan not been annouced every six months for the last decade? They will most likely still be there in five years time imo.
There has never been a peace deal with the Taliban before, only temporary ceasefires, if the Taliban sticks to the terms US forces will be out of Afghanistan within 2 years
1500 tests in the last day. Three times the number of tests the US conducted since the start of the outbreak (to Feb 28).
I think Starmer is talking bollocks. The government appears to be doing as good a job as can be reasonably expected in dealing with the coronavirus problem.
It is the media who drive this bollocks as much as any politician. See their outrage / government not doing enough over Libya evacuations or more recently things like Thomas Cook going bust / Wuhan flights....the media always really keen to say they are doing a shit job, aren't reacting fast enough and find an individual who hasn't followed the instructions but now outraged they have been left behind.
I don't think I have ever heard them turn round and say actually given the circumstances they have done ok here, and they have. All those Monarch and Thomas Cook passengers were really efficiently returned to the UK. Wuhan evacuation flights got basically everybody out who wanted to return, even those that first time around were being twats about things or that the Chinese took particular exception to.
I don't know enough to praise or criticise the Government on the current siuation, but I agree with you on the media. There was once a threatened U-turn by the (Labour) government which would have affected my constituency badly, and the Guardian had a half page article about the "impending betrayal". I was able to head it off, and contacted the editor, who said "If they're doing what they should, that's not news", and refused to publish a word to tell readers that the "betrayal" actually never happened.
They are best seen as a branch of the entertainment industry, which incidentally provides news when it fits with the entertainment.
I fear the coronavirus is out of control in Italy, and now in France ttps://twitter.com/flolauvergnat/status/1233759149026091009?s=20
The real problem is Iran, where the reported numbers make even less sense than those that came out of China in the initial stages of the outbreak. Infected people from Iran are turning up all over the wider region, there appear to be little in the way of movement restrictions in place, and the medical system isn’t set up to deal with the scale of the problem.
Given the already large tensions between the regime and the public, I also fear they aren't going to be keen to listen to powers that be if they are told whole towns / cities are going to be forcibly quarantined in the way China has done it.
There’s probably a couple of orders of magnitude more cases than official figures suggest, there’s more Iranians arriving infected in neighbouring countries than in Iran itself - if you believe the Iranian numbers.
I’m not sure there’s any other country (well, maybe North Korea) that can lock down areas in the way that China has done. Countries, like Iran, with unstable or unpopular governments will find it almost impossible to effectively quarantine large numbers of people. Even in the UK there was an escapee from a quarantine centre, so now they’re having to police them like prisons.
Yes, I do wonder how well people in the UK react. I think probably in general people will take the government advice as we do generally trust the government when it comes to things like this. However, there will definitely be total twats who decide they know better and won't stay inside, and unlike in China there is no threat of having your social credit score zero'ed (so you can't ever get a bus or train again) or being sent to a re-education camp.
But I think places like Iran, large parts of the public always don't trust the authorities and much more willing to rally against its advice.
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
You should take action if:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people. Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact. In England and Wales ring 111. In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours. In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885. Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician. Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital. Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
Many if not most infections are occurring within families: inside the household. Might this be because they are ordered to remain at home, in close confineemt, thus ensuring everyone in the family catches it from everyone else?
"Stay home" could be the worst possible advice, if you are a nuclear family
However the death rate is less than 0.5% if you are under 50 but 15% if you are over 80, so unless you have grandparents living with you I think the advice is sound
Bit of both, probably. One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
We definitely need a large scale public education campaign running on tv and social media ASAP. Otherwise we are definitely going to have loads of people turning up in A&E and doctors surgeries complaining of illness and needing to be seen.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
Comments
Otherwise I agree.
What is undeliverable agenda that the Home Office? They have dropped the less than 100k net migration, so the points based immigration system?
The people with the knowledge and expertise persuade the people picked at random off the street to make sensible decisions.
So when they got the usual civil service response "its not possible, that won't work, we have looked at it", I think they met their match.
We have been without an opposition for far too long.
RNA is an intermediary used single stranded to transform DNA Gene's to proteins. It is less stable, so can change more quickly.
This means RNA virus are able to change their surface proteins, relatively quickly, like Flu. This is why we need different Flu vaccines each year. This change does not necessarily mean more severe.
But the cynic in me remembers that the last decade has hardly been a golden age in management or productivity growth.
Different techniques and strategies are likely needed in different situations.
Civil servants should not be briefing against their ministers
IIRC the average age was about 65, with some in wheelchairs.
She never answered the group's concerns.
Immigration from Eastern European will be 13,000 max per annum.
Nothing is happening in Rotherham ditto others.
Stafford hospital is safe ditto others.
Jimmy Savile is a wonderful person ditto others.
The banks are well run.
Politicians expenses are honest.
Elections in Tower Hamlets are fair.
Kids Company is a deserving charity.
And we can look back on this spring and its pronouncements of imminent global doom from the likes of SeanT - and wonder what came over us all?
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1233703726705250304?s=20
In Michigan and Wisconsin, which were decided in 2016 by roughly 11,000 and 22,700 votes respectively, close to a million young people have since turned 18. Beyond the Midwestern trio of states, the demographic revolution has even more transformative potential. Mr. Trump won Arizona, for example, by 91,000 votes, and 160,000 Latinos have turned 18 in that state since then.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/opinion/bernie-sanders-polls.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Will the young bother to actually vote though.
You are describing the checks and balances of our system of government, that have through history mostly avoided the revolutionary swings that have afflicted so many of our European neighbours.
The same way that the Americans have created a system that allows complete idiots to be elected as President who then find that on their own there is next to no damage they can do, other than to their country’s reputation abroad.
Oh...
The latest tests were carried out last year, and show that youngsters in England significantly improved in maths, performing well above the OECD average.
England was ranked 17 in the table for maths, up from 26 in 2015.
Pupils in England also outperformed the OECD average in reading and science.
https://inews.co.uk/news/education/pisa-test-results-2019-rankings-england-education-england-scores-maths-1330524
But this obsessing about the youth vote is very reminiscent of the drivel posted here last November and December.
And how the teachers did howl.
This kind of issue should be his absolute bread and butter, Johnson does not do detail.
1500 tests in the last day. Three times the number of tests the US conducted since the start of the outbreak (to Feb 28).
Drift is a gradual change (as ii seems in the Italian Covid19) so has a lot in common with the original form. Hence pevious infection should give some protection, as in Flu.
Shift is a more radical change, which the host has no immunity to, so is potentially more dangerous. We see this occasionally with influenza, hence the Hong Kong Flu, Spanish Flu, etc and is much worse than the seasonal flu.
But the market is changing, and more and more people are cutting the cable. Direct-to-consumer online content is going to be what TV looks like a few years down the line, but there’s going to be a lot of turbulence and failed business models on the way to getting there. The leaders in online content are going to be international sports, who are realising they can make more revenue selling directly than working with traditional broadcasters.
Many of their ideas were right e.g. post A-Level uni applications. Now many Labour party support candidates support it and a recent report also said it was the best way of getting wider access etc.
But as we know Cummings doesn't play nice with others and causing the massive ructions doesn't really help get stuff done smoothly.
Link about how the "LOL at all the panickers" brigade ended up looking in 1918. Not great.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/
*except Donald Trump.
Labour have had 20 years in power,and in charge of Welsh education. It ha been an impressive catalogue of failure, leaving Wales bottom of the 4 nations.
Five new cases this weekend in the UAE linked to Iran, despite flights between the two countries being stopped for nearly a week now.
https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/coronavirus-in-uae-two-patients-recover-as-six-more-cases-are-announced-1.985593
As it were.
I don't think I have ever heard them turn round and say actually given the circumstances they have done ok here, and they have. All those Monarch and Thomas Cook passengers were really efficiently returned to the UK. Wuhan evacuation flights got basically everybody out who wanted to return, even those that first time around were being twats about things or that the Chinese took particular exception to.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/29/politics/us-taliban-deal-signing/index.html
If it wasn't for coronavirus, Trump would have another thing to boast about.
One thing we ought to set up on a large scale, ASAP, is drive-in testing along the lines of what they’re doing in S Korea. Would save a lot of people turning up at hospitals/GPs and risking passing it on - and enable a ramp up of community testing.
I actually don't know what I am supposed to do if I suspect I might have it?
A related point, does anyone know how the French are defining an enclosed space? Stad de France?
I’m not sure there’s any other country (well, maybe North Korea) that can lock down areas in the way that China has done. Countries, like Iran, with unstable or unpopular governments will find it almost impossible to effectively quarantine large numbers of people. Even in the UK there was an escapee from a quarantine centre, so now they’re having to police them like prisons.
You have returned from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau and experience symptoms, however mild, within two weeks.
You have returned from Northern Italy (defined by a line above and not including Pisa, Florence and Rimini), Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos or Myanmar since February 19thand experience symptoms, however mild.
You have returned from Iran, specific lockdown areas in Northern Italy or special care zones in South Korea since 19thFebruary, even if you don't have any symptoms.
You have returned from Wuhan or Hubei Province of China in the last fourteen days.
You have been in contact with someone with a confirmed case of coronavirus, even if you feel entirely well.
If any of the above applies to you:
Stay indoors and self-isolate. Avoid all possible contact with other people.
Ring the relevant number below and advise them of your recent travel or contact.
In England and Wales ring 111.
In Scotland, ring your GP during opening hours and 111 (NHS24) out of hours.
In Northern Ireland, ring the coronavirus 24/7 helpline on 0300 200 7885.
Follow their advice and do not leave your home until you been given advice by a clinician.
Do not use a taxi or public transport if you are advised to go to hospital.
Do not visit your GP - they do not have facilities in place to isolate you and prevent transmission of the infection to others
https://patient.info/news-and-features/covid-19-how-to-protect-yourself-against-coronavirus
The problems are the leadership election which is going on, and that a number of the more Corbynite left-wingers always seek to politicise everything.
You cannot ignore employment law simply when it suits your political agenda. I doubt a civil servant could simply refuse to do what a minister tells them to.
It's a fair point. Fair enough not changing entirely, but even if they take a path different to what I might think they should so, there's still basic facts to confront rather than avoid. There are very few occasions in an office environment that shouting and screaming would be warranted and thus such action is more likely to be bullying behaviour than not, in my view, but it depends very much on whether there was a pattern of behaviour to assess. Everyone blows up now and again, but a general approach of pettiness, viciousness, aggression or just low grade nastiness as a boss will show through and be indicative of a bully, whether or not there is screaming and shouting.
Sometimes people need a bollocking, and swearing can be useful when exercised appropriately to make a point. It's people who think to act like Malcolm Tucker that get my goat, people who seem to think reasonable manners are a weakness or that to be cool and powerful they need to rant and swear like the children of South Park.
We all know it is possible to be a good leader without screaming and shouting (habitually at any rate) so no one needs to do it. It's like caning children - its possible to control schoolkids without it, so choosing to do it is pathetic on top of being wrong.
Question is, once awoken will he fix himself a hearty breakfast and attack the day with gusto? Or will he require a mid morning nap?
They are best seen as a branch of the entertainment industry, which incidentally provides news when it fits with the entertainment.
But I think places like Iran, large parts of the public always don't trust the authorities and much more willing to rally against its advice.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-age-older-people-higher-risk-2020-2?r=US&IR=T
https://twitter.com/MichelBarnier/status/1233769594759806977?s=20