My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will recognise when the same virus returns to the patient and will kill the virus more rapidly than it can replicate. Meaning that infection and full recovery results in immunity. A few people do not work up immunity, but such cases are rare enough to have a negligible effect on the spread of a pandemic.
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
Not surprised to see Big G defending Patel. "Objective" my arse.
I am not defending her.
I have no idea how true the allegations are but there does seem to be discourse on both sides and maybe wait to see how this evolves. Many on here are taking the civil servants side without knowing the detail
Still no deaths yet, which is good; but 7 are critical. As they are now at 100 cases the maths says someone should die soon.
Singapore will be a litmus rest of what a very wealthy, advanced, organized nation can achieve in this fight. If they can’t contain, that’s ominous.
It is also encouraging that like Singapore so far no coronavirus deaths in the UK and we have also had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the US
Not surprised to see Big G defending Patel. "Objective" my arse.
I am not defending her.
I have no idea how true the allegations are but there does seem to be discourse on both sides and maybe wait to see how this evolves. Many on here are taking the civil servants side without knowing the detail
Yeah but you are though. You wouldn't take a position like this over Labour for instance.
Anyway , looking forward to coming out of hibernation (one more bonus day this year!) now it will be Spring (in my book) tomorrow so last day of posting unnecessary stuff and generally lounging around the house in my free time - Goodbye winter hello 2020! (probably get Covid 69 soon though! See you on 1st Dec again!
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
Further proof that Enoch Powell was right.
The non white person has the whip hand over the indigenous British white man.
Fascinating interview with Enoch here. The first half on immigration, the second on pensions, the NHS etc
Shouting and screaming is not “bullying”, in my book, even if it’s unpleasant.
I think Patel is probably the least qualified Home Secretary in my lifetime, worse than hapless Jacqui Smith, but mendacious and malevolent as well.
But not convinced yet Mr Rutnam has a cast iron case. Look forward to seeing the evidence.
Shouting and screaming at someone can be bullying.
It can also be deserved.
I suspect they're both at fault.
Not according to employment law and common decency it isn't.
If someone has put lives at risk through flouting H&S regulations then I doubt employment law and common decency will mind a bit of shouting and screaming.
Anyway , looking forward to coming out of hibernation (one more bonus day this year!) now it will be Spring (in my book) tomorrow so last day of posting unnecessary stuff and generally lounging around the house in my free time - Goodbye winter hello 2020! (probably get Covid 69 soon though! See you on 1st Dec again!
Anyway , looking forward to coming out of hibernation (one more bonus day this year!) now it will be Spring (in my book) tomorrow so last day of posting unnecessary stuff and generally lounging around the house in my free time - Goodbye winter hello 2020! (probably get Covid 69 soon though! See you on 1st Dec again!
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
The vast swathes of support for Priti Patel's position on PB makes me quite relieved that I don't work for many of you!
Let me make this clear.
I do not like Priti Patel and that is recorded on here long before this spat.
However, it is fair to say that this accusation has no evidence and until or unless it is proven everyone would be wise to calm down and let the law take it's course
And in over 50 years running my own business each and everyone of my employees became part of the family and no one even suggested they were unhappy. 10 years on from retirement many of my former employee are still in contact and one is about to marry my youngest son
Cleaning house at the home office has been a necessity for a long time, though she probably could have done it in a better way.
In Denglish "Home Office" means working from home (fully or partly), and I suspect most home offices have needed a thourough clear out for many a year.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
Further proof that Enoch Powell was right.
The non white person has the whip hand over the indigenous British white man.
Patel is closer to Powell's views than the senior civil service are
Still no deaths yet, which is good; but 7 are critical. As they are now at 100 cases the maths says someone should die soon.
Singapore will be a litmus rest of what a very wealthy, advanced, organized nation can achieve in this fight. If they can’t contain, that’s ominous.
It is also encouraging that like Singapore so far no coronavirus deaths in the UK and we have also had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the US
What is also encouraging is Singapore is very densely populated and it appears they have managed to deal with this really well.
I am guessing whatever they are doing should be the model for big urban areas like London.
In 2017 the choice was between a Tory Brexit or a Labour Brexit, and it was very close. Two years later the choice was Brexit or no Brexit, and it was not close at all.
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will recognise when the same virus returns to the patient and will kill the virus more rapidly than it can replicate. Meaning that infection and full recovery results in immunity. A few people do not work up immunity, but such cases are rare enough to have a negligible effect on the spread of a pandemic.
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
IANAE but in papers linked to through this site it has been suggested by those who are that some corona viruses can reinfect and some don't and it is not entirely clear why. It seemed to be to do with which cells were damaged/diminished. It was not clear at the time that was written which category this particular virus came into but there are a suspicious number of reports of those who test negatively for the virus after infection and then subsequently test positive again.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
Further proof that Enoch Powell was right.
The non white person has the whip hand over the indigenous British white man.
Patel is closer to Powell's views than the senior civil service are
Anyway , looking forward to coming out of hibernation (one more bonus day this year!) now it will be Spring (in my book) tomorrow so last day of posting unnecessary stuff and generally lounging around the house in my free time - Goodbye winter hello 2020! (probably get Covid 69 soon though! See you on 1st Dec again!
What is the method of transmission for COVID-69?
dont know but sounds more fun to get
Just hope I don't get it before Cheltenham! You know the year really begins when Cheltenham is just around the corner!
I support Johnson because I believe in him, believe in what he's proposing and so do enough other people that he won the second-greatest landslide of my adult lifetime. I fail to see how that's a disservice.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Not true of England though where Labour did much better than 1983 and 1987. Its performance was comparable to 1992 there - though the regional distribution of its support was very different in 2019. Moreover, most of the gains made at Tory expense in 2017 were retained - despite the adverse 4.5% swing.
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
Good tip.
It is how I have oriented my book. The market is bound to over react to a strong Biden showing
One in five students would be financially better off if they skipped higher education, according to groundbreaking research that compares the lifetime earnings of graduates and non-graduates.
Still no deaths yet, which is good; but 7 are critical. As they are now at 100 cases the maths says someone should die soon.
Singapore will be a litmus rest of what a very wealthy, advanced, organized nation can achieve in this fight. If they can’t contain, that’s ominous.
It is also encouraging that like Singapore so far no coronavirus deaths in the UK and we have also had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the US
What is also encouraging is Singapore is very densely populated and it appears they have managed to deal with this really well.
I am guessing whatever they are doing should be the model for big urban areas like London.
That’s true, BUT even in Singapore the number of cases is steadily growing. Check the graph in my link. And their data tallies with projections. Critical cases are near 10%.
The concerning thing is that this virus is closely following the epidemiologists’ predictions from a month ago. And remember they were quite alarming: 40-70% of the world will be infected; 80% of these will have mild or no symptoms; 10% will require hospital care; 1-2% will die.
You don’t need advanced maths to discern the implications: it means, for instance, 250,000 dead in the UK. Let’s hope the sun kills this thing off.
Mind you 500 000 die in the UK every year, so 250,000 dead would only be an extra 0.5 times the deaths we usually get every year
I think Brexit caused Corbyn to overperform in 2017 and underperform in 2019. Take that special factor away, run an election with Corbyn's Labour against Generic Tory, and their par score is 250 seats. Meaning that Corbyn was unelectable but not quite as disastrously so as Dec 12th would superficially imply. Let's go deeper. How many seats did Corbyn the man cost as opposed to his policies? I judge 25. From this we can deduce that Radical Labour with a better leader (e.g. Starmer) wins 275 seats. Now let us lose the 1970s reactionary vibe from the policies, i.e. assume a manifesto that is "socialist" but in a form bespoke tailored for the age we live in. For me, this wins 50 additional seats. So we are now at 325. Not quite there. But not to worry - the next GE will be fought in a climate of intense disenchantment at the state of post Brexit, post Covid Britain. And it will be in a state, such is becoming clear. This delivers a further 30 seats to Labour. 355. A comfortable working majority and a strong mandate for transformational change in favour of neglected people in neglected places. Or to put it another way, Up The Workers! Let's hope they deliver this time.
That is a bit optimistic I suspect - but,of course, the existence of an anti-Tory block in Scotland of circa 40 MPs means that - in reality - Labour probably only needs circa 265 seats to take office.
Still no deaths yet, which is good; but 7 are critical. As they are now at 100 cases the maths says someone should die soon.
Singapore will be a litmus rest of what a very wealthy, advanced, organized nation can achieve in this fight. If they can’t contain, that’s ominous.
It is also encouraging that like Singapore so far no coronavirus deaths in the UK and we have also had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, Japan, South Korea and the US
What is also encouraging is Singapore is very densely populated and it appears they have managed to deal with this really well.
I am guessing whatever they are doing should be the model for big urban areas like London.
That’s true, BUT even in Singapore the number of cases is steadily growing. Check the graph in my link. And their data tallies with projections. Critical cases are near 10%.
The concerning thing is that this virus is closely following the epidemiologists’ predictions from a month ago. And remember they were quite alarming: 40-70% of the world will be infected; 80% of these will have mild or no symptoms; 10% will require hospital care; 1-2% will die.
You don’t need advanced maths to discern the implications: it means, for instance, 250,000 dead in the UK. Let’s hope the sun kills this thing off.
Mind you 500 000 die in the UK every year, so 250,000 dead would only be an extra 0.5 times the deaths we usually get every year
It would probably lead to lower deaths if the following couple of years as the deaths of the old and sick were brought forward.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
Further proof that Enoch Powell was right.
The non white person has the whip hand over the indigenous British white man.
Patel is closer to Powell's views than the senior civil service are
I do not think that helps her case one bit
It was clearly partly a clash of culture too, Sir Philip Rutnam was educated at Dulwich college, Trinity Hall, Cambridge and Harvard university ie old school establishment wet Remainer, Patel was educated at a state school in Watford, Keele and Essex Universities and is a Thatcherite Brexiteer
The vast swathes of support for Priti Patel's position on PB makes me quite relieved that I don't work for many of you!
I was at a dinner with Priti Patel last week and she was charming and pleasant to everyone, including the waiters and waitresses and catering staff.
However top civil servants on 6 figure salaries are a different kettle of fish and should be expected to deliver and pushed hard to do so
It is a power issue! Whether a subordinate earns a minimum wage or a million pounds a year, they have every right to expect civility from their superiors. If they do not cut the mustard they should be disciplined out of the organisation in the appropriate way.
This guy has managed to mask his alleged incompetence for three decades even getting multiple promotions in that time.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
No it is not!
In that relationship she had the whip hand, however she had absolutely no right to be abusive.
You have clearly never worked for someone who abuses their power and authority.
Further proof that Enoch Powell was right.
The non white person has the whip hand over the indigenous British white man.
Patel is closer to Powell's views than the senior civil service are
I do not think that helps her case one bit
It was clearly partly a clash of culture too, Sir Philip Rutnam was educated at Dulwich college, Trinity Hall, Cambridge and Harvard university ie old school establishment wet Remainer, Patel was educated at a state school in Watford, Keele and Essex Universities and is a Thatcherite Brexiteer
So you're saying she's too ill-bred to control her temper?
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
In 1951 and 1955 the Liberals contested fewer than 20% of the seats.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses, after a proper recovery from infection the white blood cells will which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
Very interesting. I didn’t know the Italian coronavirus was a mutation.
Would that explain why the Italian mortality rate seems to be a little higher: ~2.5%?
Most mutations that spread are to less virulent form. You can’t put too much reliance on death rates from such small samples - as the Italian epidemiologist at the hospital said, all but three of the carrier deaths (when the total was 17) were on their way out with other conditions anyway. And italy has a very aged demography.
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
Good tip.
It is how I have oriented my book. The market is bound to over react to a strong Biden showing
Surely a reason to back him before and lay him afterwards?
One in five students would be financially better off if they skipped higher education, according to groundbreaking research that compares the lifetime earnings of graduates and non-graduates.
Big divide, men who studied medicine and economics earnt £500 000 more over their lifetime than their peers who did not attend university but those who studied creative arts actually earnt less over their lifetimes after accounting for taxes and student loans than those with similar results at school who skipped university and went straight into work
One in five students would be financially better off if they skipped higher education, according to groundbreaking research that compares the lifetime earnings of graduates and non-graduates.
Big divide, men who studied medicine and economics earnt £500 000 more over their lifetime than their peers who did not attend university but those who studied creative arts actually earnt less over their lifetimes after accounting for taxes and student loans than those with similar results at school who skipped university and went straight into work
I think we could have all told them that without the research, but good to see it with facts / figures. Wasting 3 years doing a BA in Mickey Mouse Studies isn't going to do you a lot of good and saddle you with a massive debt.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
In 1951 and 1955 the Liberals contested fewer than 20% of the seats.
My case rests, therefore.
Although the defence might argue that in such a circumstance the 20% were chosen as their better prospects, rather than a random selection.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?
Not a chance.
Why are you even asking ?
Their vote share keeps going up.
The thing to remember is that there is a good chance that practically every reason why the Tories did well in 2019 will no longer apply in 2024.
- The fear of Brexit being stopped will be gone. - The actual Brexit result will have crystallised around a new reality rather than still being a hypothetical. As such it will undoubtedly please some whilst upsetting others. - Corbyn will no longer be the Leader of the Opposition and Starmer (if indeed it is he) will be a far more electable choice - even if I can't stand the bloke. - The economic and employment cycle will almost certainly have moved against the Tories. - Boris will have been in power for 5 years rather than 5 months so will not be able to hide from any bad Government decisions and pretend they were nothing to do with him.
I don't think this means Boris will lose. But I do think that, black swans excepted, it will be far more of a contest than 2019 was.
Would have thought so.
Lots of people voted Tory to "Get Brexit Done", hence they won so easily. I would have thought there are many voters, like myself, who are excited to see what all parties have to offer in post EU Britain, sans excuses of hands tied by Brussels
Don't you mean 'sans lie of hands tied by Brussels'?
The vast swathes of support for Priti Patel's position on PB makes me quite relieved that I don't work for many of you!
I was at a dinner with Priti Patel last week and she was charming and pleasant to everyone, including the waiters and waitresses and catering staff.
However top civil servants on 6 figure salaries are a different kettle of fish and should be expected to deliver and pushed hard to do so
Including breaking the law?
A Government with a big majority in Parliament makes the law in the UK
A point you make in all sorts of contexts, but the law is what it is until it changes. Do you think for instance that it would be fine for the Prime Minister to drive at 150mph because he could change the speed limit if he wanted to? I strongly suspect you do, actually.
Do we think the Tories will hit 50% of the vote in 2024?
Not a chance.
Why are you even asking ?
Their vote share keeps going up.
The thing to remember is that there is a good chance that practically every reason why the Tories did well in 2019 will no longer apply in 2024.
- The fear of Brexit being stopped will be gone. - The actual Brexit result will have crystallised around a new reality rather than still being a hypothetical. As such it will undoubtedly please some whilst upsetting others. - Corbyn will no longer be the Leader of the Opposition and Starmer (if indeed it is he) will be a far more electable choice - even if I can't stand the bloke. - The economic and employment cycle will almost certainly have moved against the Tories. - Boris will have been in power for 5 years rather than 5 months so will not be able to hide from any bad Government decisions and pretend they were nothing to do with him.
I don't think this means Boris will lose. But I do think that, black swans excepted, it will be far more of a contest than 2019 was.
Would have thought so.
Lots of people voted Tory to "Get Brexit Done", hence they won so easily. I would have thought there are many voters, like myself, who are excited to see what all parties have to offer in post EU Britain, sans excuses of hands tied by Brussels
Don't you mean 'sans lie of hands tied by Brussels'?
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
I think they do understand that. Ministers need to understand that treating people like dirt and lying to them, colleagues and the public is also unacceptable. Some very specific allegations have been made. There will be a court case and discovery. Let’s see what happens. We do know that the government tried to pay this bloke off. It’s interesting he refused the money.
I think that is fair and there must be two sides to the story
I am not a Patel fan but I think both sides need a fair hearing
And it is my 19th birthday today and as it comes only once every four years, I will agree with everyone just for today !!!!
Happy birthday Big G, and enjoy your last four years as a teenager!
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Shouting and screaming is not “bullying”, in my book, even if it’s unpleasant.
I think Patel is probably the least qualified Home Secretary in my lifetime, worse than hapless Jacqui Smith, but mendacious and malevolent as well.
But not convinced yet Mr Rutnam has a cast iron case. Look forward to seeing the evidence.
Shouting and screaming at someone can be bullying.
It can also be deserved.
I suspect they're both at fault.
Shouting and screaming at a member of staff is never acceptable. If a manager has to resort to it then he's not fit to hold that position.
Even HM Forces have recognised for quite a long time (even if more honoured in the breach than in the observance) that punching down is not acceptable.
I think Brexit caused Corbyn to overperform in 2017 and underperform in 2019. Take that special factor away, run an election with Corbyn's Labour against Generic Tory, and their par score is 250 seats. Meaning that Corbyn was unelectable but not quite as disastrously so as Dec 12th would superficially imply. Let's go deeper. How many seats did Corbyn the man cost as opposed to his policies? I judge 25. From this we can deduce that Radical Labour with a better leader (e.g. Starmer) wins 275 seats. Now let us lose the 1970s reactionary vibe from the policies, i.e. assume a manifesto that is "socialist" but in a form bespoke tailored for the age we live in. For me, this wins 50 additional seats. So we are now at 325. Not quite there. But not to worry - the next GE will be fought in a climate of intense disenchantment at the state of post Brexit, post Covid Britain. And it will be in a state, such is becoming clear. This delivers a further 30 seats to Labour. 355. A comfortable working majority and a strong mandate for transformational change in favour of neglected people in neglected places. Or to put it another way, Up The Workers! Let's hope they deliver this time.
This would require the largest swing in history.
I think a minority Government is possible on a 5.5% swing, with a pact with the LDs - but a majority Government seems impossible.
Although I never thought the SNP would win a landslide in 2015, so perhaps they collapse over the next five years, who knows.
A minority Government seems feasible.
Prima facie that is true. However, there were massive anti-Labour swings in the Heartland seats in 2019 - which took place over a period of just two and a half years.What is far from clear is the extent to which that was due to Corbyn and Brexit - and whether such swings are likely to be reversed in 2023/2024 when both factors disappear
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
Could be better. Could have not won fewer MPs than in 1945, 1950, 1951, 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974 (x2), 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 or 2017.
Still not as dire as the rollercoaster the Libdems have been on.
It is, actually.
With 11 MPs, the Lib Dems are just back where they were pre-1981. Labour, by contrast, is back where it was pre-WW2.
On the other hand, the "per candidate" vote share for the LibDems is back to 1950s/60s type levels. The results for that period look worse because the Liberals only stood in about half the seats.
In 1951 and 1955 the Liberals contested fewer than 20% of the seats.
My case rests, therefore.
Although the defence might argue that in such a circumstance the 20% were chosen as their better prospects, rather than a random selection.
The fragmentation of two party politics initially helped the Liberals / Alliance / LibDems but now hurts them as the non Con/Lab vote itself fragments.
One of the great joys and regular frustrations of South Carolina politics is its unpredictability and refusal to bend to prevailing political norms. The state’s contrarian voters have been confounding journalists and political consultants for most of my lifetime. It wouldn’t surprise me if they did it again this weekend.
One in five students would be financially better off if they skipped higher education, according to groundbreaking research that compares the lifetime earnings of graduates and non-graduates.
Big divide, men who studied medicine and economics earnt £500 000 more over their lifetime than their peers who did not attend university but those who studied creative arts actually earnt less over their lifetimes after accounting for taxes and student loans than those with similar results at school who skipped university and went straight into work
I think we could have all told them that without the research, but good to see it with facts / figures. Wasting 3 years doing a BA in Mickey Mouse Studies isn't going to do you a lot of good and saddle you with a massive debt.
Especially if the BA in Mickey Mouse Studies is from a Mickey Mouse university.
One in five students would be financially better off if they skipped higher education, according to groundbreaking research that compares the lifetime earnings of graduates and non-graduates.
Arent these comparisons missing the point that 18 year olds who go on to university would (on average) be significantly higher earners than current non graduates if they left formal education at 18.
Id be surprised if the majority of 18 year olds who are going into university currently are making a +ve expected value decision.
If you add options for home learning and gaining accreditations in the workplace, most youngsters are going to university for a mix of parental and societal expectations and an opportunity to try something different rather than economic reasons.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Campbell's behaviour was unacceptable. If the allegations made about Ms Patel are true, they too are unacceptable.
I am stunned that so many people on here think a Senior Civil Servant deserves a good kicking at the hands (feet?) of their Minister.
I remember now why I avoid a certain brand of Tory.
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
Good tip.
It is how I have oriented my book. The market is bound to over react to a strong Biden showing
Surely a reason to back him before and lay him afterwards?
The vast swathes of support for Priti Patel's position on PB makes me quite relieved that I don't work for many of you!
I was at a dinner with Priti Patel last week and she was charming and pleasant to everyone, including the waiters and waitresses and catering staff.
However top civil servants on 6 figure salaries are a different kettle of fish and should be expected to deliver and pushed hard to do so
Including breaking the law?
A Government with a big majority in Parliament makes the law in the UK
A point you make in all sorts of contexts, but the law is what it is until it changes. Do you think for instance that it would be fine for the Prime Minister to drive at 150mph because he could change the speed limit if he wanted to? I strongly suspect you do, actually.
This was about delivering the Government's agenda and senior civil servants should expect to be pushed hard to do so
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Campbell's behaviour was unacceptable. If the allegations made about Ms Patel are true, they too are unacceptable.
I am stunned that so many people on here think a Senior Civil Servant deserves a good kicking at the hands (feet?) of their Minister.
I remember now why I avoid a certain brand of Tory.
Whataboutery is strong in politics. Campbell was bad they say. So if Patel is like Campbell she should be seen as bad not fine because thats what Campbell did.
The vast swathes of support for Priti Patel's position on PB makes me quite relieved that I don't work for many of you!
I was at a dinner with Priti Patel last week and she was charming and pleasant to everyone, including the waiters and waitresses and catering staff.
However top civil servants on 6 figure salaries are a different kettle of fish and should be expected to deliver and pushed hard to do so
Including breaking the law?
A Government with a big majority in Parliament makes the law in the UK
A point you make in all sorts of contexts, but the law is what it is until it changes. Do you think for instance that it would be fine for the Prime Minister to drive at 150mph because he could change the speed limit if he wanted to? I strongly suspect you do, actually.
This was about delivering the Government's agenda and senior civil servants should expect to be pushed hard to do so
I wonder if Amber Rudd will be called as a witness?
So the utter dysfunctional mess that is the Home Office finally comes to a head, after weeks of everyone briefing against everyone else. Sounds like we’ll be getting both sides of the story coming out soon, if not in tomorrow’s papers.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
I don't think it's so much that, as people changing their behaviour as a response to fear.
The percentage infected within China has been too small to make much difference to the rate of spread, even if one assumes 90% of cases haven't being diagnosed. But still the rate of spread has plummeted, to around 10% of its peak value in Hubei Province, and around 1% elsewhere in Mainland China.
...also assuming the diagnosis rate has remained constant.
Well, do you think the diagnosis rate has changed by a factor of 10 in Hubei and 100 outside Hubei?
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
The civil service is the nation's largest roadblock to any kind of reform or change to the status quo. This is an extremely unsurprising outcome when you have one one side a government with a majority and mandate for big change and on the other an immovable roadblock to those changes. Ultimately the case will come down to that and hopefully the government win. It's time for the civil service to bend the knee.
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
Good tip.
It is how I have oriented my book. The market is bound to over react to a strong Biden showing
Surely a reason to back him before and lay him afterwards?
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
On the US, I suspect the time to back Sanders is tomorrow after a thumping Biden win in SC - there will then be a tempory lengtthening of the Sanders price before Super Tuesday. DYOR of course.
Good tip.
It is how I have oriented my book. The market is bound to over react to a strong Biden showing
Surely a reason to back him before and lay him afterwards?
He said that he had received allegations that Ms Patel's behaviour included 'shouting and swearing' and making 'unreasonable demands'.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
But the Home Office is not a building site or factory.
I am sure there was no shouting or swearing or making unreasonable demands when old Bad Al toured government departments....
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
Most people "out in the real world" also hate these types of bosses.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
They hate bosses who abuse people and they hate bosses who are incompetent posh boys.
Its not about feeling sorry for him. Its about one of our most important parts of government working effectively. If it is being led by a bully that cannot happen.
I don't doubt that Patel has bullying potential but I suspect that is widespread among politicians.
And always has been.
Well and even back in the days of Yes Minster, senior civil servants have had a reputation of being brilliant at finding reasons why the minster idea just isn't possible, while the civil servants preferred option is.
My model has r^2 = 0.998 for the past 14 days' worth of coronavirus cases outside China. If it continues to fit, we'll get: 2 March 10700 5 March 23700 7 March 42400 9 March 79100 12 March 217000 10^6th case 17 March 10^7th case, 22 March 10^8th case, 27 March 10^9th case, 31 March ...and as bad as it's going to get, wrt no. of people infected, 4 April. Happy Easter!
After a while carriers will be meeting people who have or have had it, so the exponential decreases
Which is why the question of whether you can be reinfected is rather important.
With almost all viruses,
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
A good summary, but I recall that herpes viruses are DNA viruses, while Coronavirus is an RNA virus. Herpes viruses include several other persisting species (CMV, EBV), but RNA viruses do not persist, with the exception of HIV, which has the capacity to reverse transcribe DNA.
The more mutation prone RNA viruses can have quite speedy antigenic drift and shift. It sounds like the Italian outbreak has drifted rather than shifted.
Why would people pay for what they can get free elsewhere?
Now, if they start selling international subscriptions, they’ll make a fortune.
I believe they already do in the US, but has very limited market share (300k subs I think) among the likes of Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, Disney, HBO Go, etc etc etc.
I am no fan of Priti Patel but for her senior civil servant to quit in tears is really rather pathetic
Maybe some civil servants need to understand the politician is elected and answerable to the public and they should do everything to follow their instructions whether they like it or not
Elected or not, she has to follow the law. Pathectic to suggest otherwise. The allegation is not that she has given him instructions he did not like.
I am not suggesting Patel breaks the law and how do you know that is the issue
That is the allegation.
You are saying that the argument was over breaking the law.
I cannot comment on which law as I have no knowledge of the detail
It is quite obvious on this forum that those against HMG and brexit are siding with the civil servant while those supporting the government are not rushing to judge
"If this were any other environment, Philip Rutnam would not only be sacked, he’d be denied a pension." Priti Patel's words, more than a week ago.
Comments
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/us/politics/joe-biden-south-carolina.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
There are some illnesses which appear to be exceptions, and the disease returns, but the biological reasons are known. One example is chicken pox/shingles; the body never properly pugres the Herpes Zoster virus so technically is the same infection lingeres many decades. HIV is also a special case as an effect of the virus is to surpress the immune system and the body cannot natuurally rid itself of HIV.
COVID-19 is a Coronavirus and for other corona viruses, like most flu viruses, infection and recovery means immunity from future infection. Here recovery means on a biological level, so a virus positive person might not get symptoms, but the immune system has still identified, killed off and stored the blue print of that virus.
All the prior evidence we have is that a proper reinfection of the virus barring a few special cases is very unlikely and there are more important unkowns in this epidemic than reinfection rates.
There are however two caveats. The first is mutation. All viruses mutate; the Italian starin of COVID-19 is not the same as the Wuhan strain (which help in tracking the chain of infection) but are similar enough that the immune system treats them as the same, but it is possible that a new virus mutates quickly to a properly new virus which sets of another epidemic. The other issue is that people ho have been exposed to the virus might be able to carry it and infect other people. I believe that Glandular Fever (another herpes virus) is one example.
But it is not.
See Steve Jobs and countless others.
If what is said about Patel is true, she should go.
I have no idea how true the allegations are but there does seem to be discourse on both sides and maybe wait to see how this evolves. Many on here are taking the civil servants side without knowing the detail
This works both ways.
Shouting and screaming at someone at a higher level can also be deserved.
I'm really proud that the last two times I've moved jobs most of my staff wanted to join me and most did.
Bercow I believe, Patel I don’t know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nN6sTBSAp-A
I do not like Priti Patel and that is recorded on here long before this spat.
However, it is fair to say that this accusation has no evidence and until or unless it is proven everyone would be wise to calm down and let the law take it's course
And in over 50 years running my own business each and everyone of my employees became part of the family and no one even suggested they were unhappy. 10 years on from retirement many of my former employee are still in contact and one is about to marry my youngest son
However top civil servants on 6 figure salaries are a different kettle of fish and should be expected to deliver and pushed hard to do so
I am guessing whatever they are doing should be the model for big urban areas like London.
I don't recommend he ever goes and works in a factory or on a building site.
Wanna buy a bridge?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51689443
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/feb/29/one-in-five-students-lose-money-by-going-to-university-ifs-finds
This guy has managed to mask his alleged incompetence for three decades even getting multiple promotions in that time.
Obviously there is a lot more going on but moaning about the nasty lady being shouty and sweary, most people in the real world will think AND...come work a proper job.
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1233730543885393922?s=20
Although the defence might argue that in such a circumstance the 20% were chosen as their better prospects, rather than a random selection.
It's only in managerial never-never land where this behavior is regarded as evidence of a can-do attitude.
We shouldn't and neither should the government.
Both might apply in this case.
Britbox’s free trial fails to win over viewers
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/britboxs-free-trial-fails-to-win-over-viewers-g0bbn6q09
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/opinion/south-carolina-primary.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Id be surprised if the majority of 18 year olds who are going into university currently are making a +ve expected value decision.
If you add options for home learning and gaining accreditations in the workplace, most youngsters are going to university for a mix of parental and societal expectations and an opportunity to try something different rather than economic reasons.
I am stunned that so many people on here think a Senior Civil Servant deserves a good kicking at the hands (feet?) of their Minister.
I remember now why I avoid a certain brand of Tory.
Why bother with this pesky business of Parliament and passing legislation when you are free to break the law because you have the power to change it?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/may/31/senior-civil-servants-salaries-data
And when Lewis tried to become a Labour candidate he got told to 'do one'.
Given that its been deemed 'unfit for purpose' for over a decade how many civil servants have been sacked for incompetence during that time ?
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1233696495641206784?s=20
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1233722761794682880
And always has been.
Now, if they start selling international subscriptions, they’ll make a fortune.
The more mutation prone RNA viruses can have quite speedy antigenic drift and shift. It sounds like the Italian outbreak has drifted rather than shifted.
Or anonymous briefing?