The SNP actually did 8 seats worse than 2015 which was before the Brexit vote and have ended up with 7 seats fewer than the the exit poll despite gains from 2017.
Boris is now the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher with a big majority and can and will ignore Sturgeon, certainly until Holyrood 2021
‘ The Labour Party has consistently misjudged the mood of the electorate. The party is fixated on the negative; cuts, austerity, poverty etc. We have forgotten that there are lots of people who are sort of doing OK. In fact the Resolution Foundation found recently that people in the UK have never been happier, more here. What is the Labour Party’s message for happy people, people who are doing OK, people who want to get on and enjoy their lives? How do we combine our vital message on social and economic justice with the need to serve people who aren’t living precarious lives?“
This! Labour had got itself into the cul de sac of seeking more and more outrage. Ramping up the notion of poverty Britain. You were either a billionaire or living in squaller surviving off food banks.
For most people life is pretty good. Fuel prices haven’t increased for years, energy prices dropped, low interest rates, full employment wage rises filtering through.
Normal hard working people often see right through this.
People haven't voted Tory out of contentment this time, especially not in the northern seats. They both feared Corbyn, and hope for a lot from Brexit.
Victor’s spoils to say that people voted for whatever you stood for or against.
No, he's right.
This is why Layla Moran is this morning enjoying a 9k majority in OxWAB as a result of a 9.5% swing to her. When you stand *for* something (science, technology, sensible environmental policies, education - hell, she's been travelling to the EU with members of the ERG to safeguard EU citizens rights after Brexit) rather than just against everything, people will respond positively.
What really pleases me most though is a bet I made on Ynys Mon. I've had that seat in my view as a seat that could go blue for ages. I've only ever been able to get tiny bets on, but am 20quid or so richer now. For me this is what political betting is all about.
Mind you the other few grand will come in handy.
I’m a small-scale bettor.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
A technical-ish question. The % share of vote figures given in the header are GB or UK? Still waiting to find out if my 40-45% Con share is likely to pay out.....
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
The best defence for Unionists is that a large chunk of Scots are heartily sick of constitutional issues of all stripes, having had it non-stop for six years. But if it gets to a referendum, i am now fairly confident independence will carry. SCONS represent 25% of the population and a chunk of those are former SNP voters who presumably aren't wedded to unionism. That isn't a winning number in a Yes/No referendum.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
Andrew Marr this morning said she was in a weaker position than she thinks becaue of what might happen with the Salmond trial and what can she do if Boris says no
I think i got away with it. Having put £400 last night on snp seats been below 55.5, an almost certainty knowing that canvass reports from borders MPs was as good as 2017, i won £333. A difficult conversation with my other half. "we won £333 last night on a bet on the election". Initial jubilation, and then the dreaded question "how much did you bet?". "wtf"... The money is now going to fund our trip to dublin in february...
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
‘ The Labour Party has consistently misjudged the mood of the electorate. The party is fixated on the negative; cuts, austerity, poverty etc. We have forgotten that there are lots of people who are sort of doing OK. In fact the Resolution Foundation found recently that people in the UK have never been happier, more here. What is the Labour Party’s message for happy people, people who are doing OK, people who want to get on and enjoy their lives? How do we combine our vital message on social and economic justice with the need to serve people who aren’t living precarious lives?“
This! Labour had got itself into the cul de sac of seeking more and more outrage. Ramping up the notion of poverty Britain. You were either a billionaire or living in squaller surviving off food banks.
For most people life is pretty good. Fuel prices haven’t increased for years, energy prices dropped, low interest rates, full employment wage rises filtering through.
Normal hard working people often see right through this.
People haven't voted Tory out of contentment this time, especially not in the northern seats. They both feared Corbyn, and hope for a lot from Brexit.
Victor’s spoils to say that people voted for whatever you stood for or against.
Most of these comments reflect the chaos of FPTP which gave Labour:
an extraordinary bonus in 2005 (a majority of 50 on ~35% of the popular vote) a massive kicking in 2019 (when it got >35%)
Significant? Only insofar as we should have adopted PR a century ago and stopped pretending that inefficient vote distribution means a drop in support.
Erm, Labour aren't anywhere near 35%!! And posting those numbers without the share of the other party is a bit misleading.
I apologise. I've now looked on Wikipedia and it's <33%
Probably been mentioned already but noticed Lab plus Lib Dem votes is just 25,000 more than the Tories across the entire country with St Ives left to declare. It’s a shame it isn’t the other way round as that would be quite the mandate!
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
The best defence for Unionists is that a large chunk of Scots are heartily sick of constitutional issues of all stripes, having had it non-stop for six years. But if it gets to a referendum, i am now fairly confident independence will carry. SCONS represent 25% of the population and a chunk of those are former SNP voters who presumably aren't wedded to unionism. That isn't a winning number in a Yes/No referendum.
There's also the offer of even further devolution....
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
‘ The Labour Party has consistently misjudged the mood of the electorate. The party is fixated on the negative; cuts, austerity, poverty etc. We have forgotten that there are lots of people who are sort of doing OK. In fact the Resolution Foundation found recently that people in the UK have never been happier, more here. What is the Labour Party’s message for happy people, people who are doing OK, people who want to get on and enjoy their lives? How do we combine our vital message on social and economic justice with the need to serve people who aren’t living precarious lives?“
This! Labour had got itself into the cul de sac of seeking more and more outrage. Ramping up the notion of poverty Britain. You were either a billionaire or living in squaller surviving off food banks.
For most people life is pretty good. Fuel prices haven’t increased for years, energy prices dropped, low interest rates, full employment wage rises filtering through.
Normal hard working people often see right through this.
People haven't voted Tory out of contentment this time, especially not in the northern seats. They both feared Corbyn, and hope for a lot from Brexit.
Victor’s spoils to say that people voted for whatever you stood for or against.
No, he's right.
This is why Layla Moran is this morning enjoying a 9k majority in OxWAB as a result of a 9.5% swing to her. When you stand *for* something (science, technology, sensible environmental policies, education - hell, she's been travelling to the EU with members of the ERG to safeguard EU citizens rights after Brexit) rather than just against everything, people will respond positively.
Yes.
And this is why she should be the next Lib Dem leader.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
Andrew Marr this morning said she was in a weaker position than she thinks becaue of what might happen with the Salmond trial and what can she do if Boris says no
Given Nicola's fondness for people's votes, is it mischievous to suggest that the Indy vote, if successful, should be subject to a confirmatory referendum on the terms of the final deal, where remain appears as an option?
(I don't think this would work by the way, but it would be funny)
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
Possibly, if Johnson thinks that is the only way to win, as that is probably what he cares about the most.
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
Possibly, if Johnson thinks that is the only way to win, as that is probably what he cares about the most.
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
Keeping the Brexiteers on side is more important to Johnson's continuing electoral dominance than losing sensible voters worried about economic effects.
As Johnson is only interested in what benefits him personally, expect a hard Brexit.
EDIT. I am certain Johnson is aware of the dilemma. The point is, he will prioritise keeping potential Farage factions on board over what's good for the country.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
Possibly, if Johnson thinks that is the only way to win, as that is probably what he cares about the most.
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
What really pleases me most though is a bet I made on Ynys Mon. I've had that seat in my view as a seat that could go blue for ages. I've only ever been able to get tiny bets on, but am 20quid or so richer now. For me this is what political betting is all about.
Mind you the other few grand will come in handy.
I’m a small-scale bettor.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
Bet on politics if you like the challenge.
There are many wiser contexts if its about making money.
'Insurance bets' seem to be the idea that you should take some of your profits if available. 'Cut the winners. ride the losses in city-speak'. That's not really regarded as wise.
Incidentally 12 bets tells you nothing. 1200 bets might start to tell you something.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
The best defence for Unionists is that a large chunk of Scots are heartily sick of constitutional issues of all stripes, having had it non-stop for six years. But if it gets to a referendum, i am now fairly confident independence will carry. SCONS represent 25% of the population and a chunk of those are former SNP voters who presumably aren't wedded to unionism. That isn't a winning number in a Yes/No referendum.
54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties last night, only 46% for Nationalist parties, barely changed from the 55% No 45% Yes result of 2014
The SNP actually did 8 seats worse than 2015 which was before the Brexit vote and have ended up with 7 seats fewer than the the exit poll despite gains from 2017.
Boris is now the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher with a big majority and can and will ignore Sturgeon, certainly until Holyrood 2021
On a personal note, congratulations to Aaron on his success at the general election.
We must call him the honourable Mr Bell now by law.
Though I doubt we will see him post again.
I thought you only got the "honourable" bit if you were a member of the Privy Council. Or have I misunderstood?
I think that's right honourable but I confess i dont know if regular mps get the honourable tag.
Do you ever listen to Parliament?
I actually think the honorable bit is only used in parliament as in the honorable member of by honorable friend in the same way the lords use noble. Once you ar a PC you are the RT Hon for life. You can tack on learned for a QC and gallant for a former general.
True. “The Honourable ....” outside of Parliament is a courtesy title for the younger sons of earls and barons, etc.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
They've passed the legislation and everything.
There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
Andrew Marr this morning said she was in a weaker position than she thinks becaue of what might happen with the Salmond trial and what can she do if Boris says no
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
They've passed the legislation and everything.
There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
The DUP also still won the most MPs in Northern Ireland last night too, despite losses and Sinn Fein lost more voteshare than the DUP, even if the median Northern Ireland seat is now held by the non sectarian Alliance Party not the DUP.
Boris proved his Deal with the EU was right to avoid a hard border in Ireland, had he not a United Ireland would have been inevitable given there is no longer a Unionist majority in Northern Ireland unlike Scotland (in voteshare at least).
43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for the main Unionist parties the DUP and UUP last night but 54% of Scots voted for the main Unionist parties the Tories, Labour, the LDs and Brexit Party
What really pleases me most though is a bet I made on Ynys Mon. I've had that seat in my view as a seat that could go blue for ages. I've only ever been able to get tiny bets on, but am 20quid or so richer now. For me this is what political betting is all about.
Mind you the other few grand will come in handy.
I’m a small-scale bettor.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
Bet on politics if you like the challenge.
There are many wiser contexts if its about making money.
If you would be kind enough to tell me the "wiser contexts", I will be kind enough to listen attentively.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
Keeping the Brexiteers on side is more important to Johnson's continuing electoral dominance than losing sensible voters worried about economic effects.
As Johnson is only interested in what benefits him personally, expect a hard Brexit.
EDIT. I am certain Johnson is aware of the dilemma. The point is, he will prioritise keeping potential Farage factions on board over what's good for the country.
At this point, unknowable. I have no expectations at all of this government, so I will not be disappointed.
The SNP actually did 8 seats worse than 2015 which was before the Brexit vote and have ended up with 7 seats fewer than the the exit poll despite gains from 2017.
Boris is now the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher with a big majority and can and will ignore Sturgeon, certainly until Holyrood 2021
The EU are cheeky ****s if this is true... 'Brussels plans to insist that in order to get that "quick and dirty" deal, the prime minister would have to sign up to EU conditions: alignment with EU environmental, state aid and tax regulations for example.' https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-50777995 Remind me who has a trade surplus with who again?
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
They've passed the legislation and everything.
There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
If there appears to be popular demand in Scotland for independence, it will be hard work resisting a new referendum. It will be colonialism. Equally if there isn't a lot of demand, they would win the referendum but it wouldn't be needed.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
Possibly, if Johnson thinks that is the only way to win, as that is probably what he cares about the most.
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
Imagine losing to someone like that. Unthinkable.
Yup, Johnson joins the ranks of similar election winners Trump, Modi, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, and Erdogan. I don't think anyone gives a shit who the losers were.
What really pleases me most though is a bet I made on Ynys Mon. I've had that seat in my view as a seat that could go blue for ages. I've only ever been able to get tiny bets on, but am 20quid or so richer now. For me this is what political betting is all about.
Mind you the other few grand will come in handy.
I’m a small-scale bettor.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
Bet on politics if you like the challenge.
There are many wiser contexts if its about making money.
'Insurance bets' seem to be the idea that you should take some of your profits if available. 'Cut the winners. ride the losses in city-speak'. That's not really regarded as wise.
Incidentally 12 bets tells you nothing. 1200 bets might start to tell you something.
I also have a life, job, family. How on earth do you find the time to place 1200 bets in a few weeks?!
My insurance bets were mostly on seat ranges where I picked up others to make a wider spread green.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
Possibly, if Johnson thinks that is the only way to win, as that is probably what he cares about the most.
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
The election ended yesterday.
and yet people are speculating about how Johnson is going to govern - or is that banned now?
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
True - and a hard Brexit with a thin veneer of ... whatever... is quite possible. As are other outcomes.
Sense ? Is that a particularly significant factor ?
It’s nonsense to suggest Labour would have done better backing Leave in this election . A large majority of both its voters and membership back Remain.
The Brexit position whilst a fudge was really the only hope of keeping its coalition of voters together and let’s not ignore the fact , many Leave seats in the north and the Midlands still returned a Labour MP .
A better leader, a more credible manifesto whilst not guaranteeing success certainly wouldn’t have led to last nights horror show and it would also have helped the Lib Dems pick up more seats as pro EU Tories might not have been so terrified of a Labour government .
This Tory was shit scared of a Corbyn government and I don't think I was alone in that.
I was physically sick into my downstairs toilet last night.
That’s never happened to me at any election before.
What really pleases me most though is a bet I made on Ynys Mon. I've had that seat in my view as a seat that could go blue for ages. I've only ever been able to get tiny bets on, but am 20quid or so richer now. For me this is what political betting is all about.
Mind you the other few grand will come in handy.
I’m a small-scale bettor.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
Bet on politics if you like the challenge.
There are many wiser contexts if its about making money.
If you would be kind enough to tell me the "wiser contexts", I will be kind enough to listen attentively.
Oh i mean that there are at least a few sets of people who make money out of betting on horses, football, whatever. A very small number do it well.
Wider still if you're smart enough then trading in the city has huge potential gains.
Wider still, if you have the nouse of Bill Gates then you can do better still.
Betting on politics might make you a few pounds, but you'll do it mainly for the fun even if you're great at it.
The EU are cheeky ****s if this is true... 'Brussels plans to insist that in order to get that "quick and dirty" deal, the prime minister would have to sign up to EU conditions: alignment with EU environmental, state aid and tax regulations for example.' https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-50777995 Remind me who has a trade surplus with who again?
The "Oven-ready Brexit" and "get Brexit done" claims were utter nonsense of course. It's going to be an indefinite and from our PoV painful negotiation.
More seriously, as the EU bottom lines are very firm (add in access to fishing waters on present terms to the mix) but they don't mind so much about market access, we might as well go for a high access model. We will be paying the same.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
They've passed the legislation and everything.
There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
Leaving the EU isn't a material change?
It will be when it’s happened - which it hasn’t yet. They must then seek a fresh and clear mandate after that. Only then should we consider granting another referendum.
It’s nonsense to suggest Labour would have done better backing Leave in this election . A large majority of both its voters and membership back Remain.
The Brexit position whilst a fudge was really the only hope of keeping its coalition of voters together and let’s not ignore the fact , many Leave seats in the north and the Midlands still returned a Labour MP .
A better leader, a more credible manifesto whilst not guaranteeing success certainly wouldn’t have led to last nights horror show and it would also have helped the Lib Dems pick up more seats as pro EU Tories might not have been so terrified of a Labour government .
This Tory was shit scared of a Corbyn government and I don't think I was alone in that.
I was physically sick into my downstairs toilet last night.
That’s never happened to me at any election before.
I’ve no doubt others had similar reactions after the result.
We live in a world where Bolsover is a safer tory seat than Esher and Walton.
Imagine saying that forty years ago, before the men in white coats arrived...
I wondered if Skinner made a really ungracious speech upon losing, but I see that he was not there due to hip surgery.
The most ungracious speech I saw last night was Caroline Lucas (and she won!). It was as if she had learned nothing (especially humility) from the day's events.
We live in a world where Bolsover is a safer tory seat than Esher and Walton.
Imagine saying that forty years ago, before the men in white coats arrived...
Harlow now safer than Tunbridge Wells for the Tories too and Stoke South and Mansfield safer than Cities of London and Westminster and Chelsea and Fulham
Like Trump Boris still narrowly wins with rich voters but it is with the white working class he really wins big
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
Keeping the Brexiteers on side is more important to Johnson's continuing electoral dominance than losing sensible voters worried about economic effects.
As Johnson is only interested in what benefits him personally, expect a hard Brexit.
EDIT. I am certain Johnson is aware of the dilemma. The point is, he will prioritise keeping potential Farage factions on board over what's good for the country.
Boris's Cabinet will, I imagine, be like his last Cabinet, with representatives of various wings of the party in order to rule as a one nation government or deflect flack from Boris, as you see fit.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
You think logic and consistency are a problem for Boris Johnson?
This is man who’s pro having his cake and pro eating it.
if you use these results within electoral calculus against the 2017 you get Con 370 Lab 205 Lib 13 Green 1 SNP 41 PC 2
that's not far off for Con and Lab
do the same against other data and you get 2015 Con 357 Lab 213 Lib 11 Green 1 SNP 47 PC 3 2010 Con 344 Lab 225 Lib 10 Green 1 SNP 49 PC 3 2005 Con 331 Lab 233 Lib 9 Green 1 SNP 48 PC 4
just goes to show that over the last 10 years there has been a significant structural swing to the Tories and it'll take Labour a couple of elections to swing it back.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
Possibly, if Johnson thinks that is the only way to win, as that is probably what he cares about the most.
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
Imagine losing to someone like that. Unthinkable.
Yup, Johnson joins the ranks of similar election winners Trump, Modi, Bolsonaro, Netanyahu, and Erdogan. I don't think anyone gives a shit who the losers were.
Patently untrue. Even now, Republicans are severely exercised by the very idea of Hillary.
No one expects a leader to immediately repudiate what they had been banging on about all campaign, but they could leave off pretending it was all super popular but inexplicably did not work. I remember the moderator at an early Labour leadership debate post Ed M having to get the candidates to stop saying how bloody great things had been, when they clearly had not been and what were they going to do about it.
We live in a world where Bolsover is a safer tory seat than Esher and Walton.
Imagine saying that forty years ago, before the men in white coats arrived...
I wondered if Skinner made a really ungracious speech upon losing, but I see that he was not there due to hip surgery.
The most ungracious speech I saw last night was Caroline Lucas (and she won!). It was as if she had learned nothing (especially humility) from the day's events.
What really pleases me most though is a bet I made on Ynys Mon. I've had that seat in my view as a seat that could go blue for ages. I've only ever been able to get tiny bets on, but am 20quid or so richer now. For me this is what political betting is all about.
Mind you the other few grand will come in handy.
I’m a small-scale bettor.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
Bet on politics if you like the challenge.
There are many wiser contexts if its about making money.
'Insurance bets' seem to be the idea that you should take some of your profits if available. 'Cut the winners. ride the losses in city-speak'. That's not really regarded as wise.
Incidentally 12 bets tells you nothing. 1200 bets might start to tell you something.
I also have a life, job, family. How on earth do you find the time to place 1200 bets in a few weeks?!
My insurance bets were mostly on seat ranges where I picked up others to make a wider spread green.
I must say I do get jealous of people who swan in at the last minute and end up making a bigger profit than me, when I’ve been carefully building and dressing a complex book most nights for weeks.
We live in a world where Bolsover is a safer tory seat than Esher and Walton.
Imagine saying that forty years ago, before the men in white coats arrived...
I wondered if Skinner made a really ungracious speech upon losing, but I see that he was not there due to hip surgery.
The most ungracious speech I saw last night was Caroline Lucas (and she won!). It was as if she had learned nothing (especially humility) from the day's events.
I watched one last night where the tory mp just short of tripled his majority condemned for not standing up for the city and her demanding he hold monthly surgeries.
It’s nonsense to suggest Labour would have done better backing Leave in this election . A large majority of both its voters and membership back Remain.
The Brexit position whilst a fudge was really the only hope of keeping its coalition of voters together and let’s not ignore the fact , many Leave seats in the north and the Midlands still returned a Labour MP .
A better leader, a more credible manifesto whilst not guaranteeing success certainly wouldn’t have led to last nights horror show and it would also have helped the Lib Dems pick up more seats as pro EU Tories might not have been so terrified of a Labour government .
This Tory was shit scared of a Corbyn government and I don't think I was alone in that.
I was physically sick into my downstairs toilet last night.
That’s never happened to me at any election before.
So for the third time in four years, I have to say congrats PB Tories. Hope (!!) you had a very enjoyable night. A few of my bets came through as consolation though (Tory majority, Tory seats > 340)
It is painful for me today (though not as painful as 2015 as this defeat was expected) but I hope the thrashing Labour has had will inject some sense into the Labour party. Brexit was not the issue, it was Corbyn front and centre.
Corbyn has to go as soon as possible. The political future is still very uncertain with both the economy and our trading relationship with the EU and the rest of the World still up for grabs. A sensible centre-left leader should be able to make hay and give Labour a good chance at the next GE - the seats the Tories have won are in theory very vulnerable.
As you know, I am not a fan of Johnson - he has very little integrity for someone who holds the post of PM. PB Tories would say "who cares, it is the winning that matters" and on that note you are probably right.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
You think logic and consistency are a problem for Boris Johnson?
This is man who’s pro having his cake and pro eating it.
It goes beyond that though. Boris Johnson will of course do anything at all that furthers the interests of Boris Johnson and not a thing more, and this is something that you wish for, not something that furthers the interests of Boris Johnson.
His approach to Brexit will be determined by keeping together the coalition of voters who turned out in force yesterday, so expect protectionism and strict immigration controls. He's more likely to nuke Brussels than cosy up to it.
Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.
So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
They've passed the legislation and everything.
There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
It maybe that after the final Brexit Deal and an outright SNP victory in the SP elections next year in 2021 that a 2nd indyref is inevitable. IMHO, Boris needs to start working on a master unionist strategy for that now.
If lost there’d be very few places to go for the SNP for a 3rd attempt, as all major constitutional and Brexit related changes would be basically over, not that it would stop them trying.
It’s nonsense to suggest Labour would have done better backing Leave in this election . A large majority of both its voters and membership back Remain.
The Brexit position whilst a fudge was really the only hope of keeping its coalition of voters together and let’s not ignore the fact , many Leave seats in the north and the Midlands still returned a Labour MP .
A better leader, a more credible manifesto whilst not guaranteeing success certainly wouldn’t have led to last nights horror show and it would also have helped the Lib Dems pick up more seats as pro EU Tories might not have been so terrified of a Labour government .
This Tory was shit scared of a Corbyn government and I don't think I was alone in that.
I was physically sick into my downstairs toilet last night.
That’s never happened to me at any election before.
Stick to soft drinks next time.
I shared the revulsion of the absolute reckless nature of a Corbyn Government and the contemplation of having to spend the next twenty years undoing whatever damage they inflict.
Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
Yes. I’ve been saying this for weeks.
I very much hope you are right, but I am sceptical. Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
It makes no sense. There is a huge amount of discontinuity coming from the exceptionally hard version of Brexit that Boris Johnson has signed up for in his version of the withdrawal agreement. To suffer that pain and then try to cosy up to the EU would be to put the country through the mincer without even an internal justification.
Boris Johnson's priority is to be elected for a second term. So he'll do whatever he thinks necessary to achieve that. Mangling the economy with an ultra hard Brexit won't be it.
Amazing that Putney was the only Labour gain of the night. (Although the MRP had given a sneak preview of it).
To be the unfortunate Tory who lost a seat (in England anyway) on a night like that. Rough.
Indeed. Just checked and Labour's majority in Putney is now larger than it was in 1997 or 2001 when they also won the seat. It's also larger than it was in 1974 and earlier.
Boris should just call her bluff, let her have her referendum in summer 2020 and watch as 'Remain' wins again.
It’s not a mandate from this election, and there is no material change in effect yet. If it’s a manifesto commitment in the ScotParl elections in 2021 and she wins, then fair enough.
Schedule for 2022 when we are out of EU totally and FTA has been sealed. No sensible Scot will choose separatism at that point. Too many downsides.
Mate, it was a manifesto commitment in 2016. And she won that one.
They've passed the legislation and everything.
There’s no material change for us to grant S30 order to allow referendum.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
It maybe that after the final Brexit Deal and an outright SNP victory in the SP elections next year in 2021 that a 2nd indyref is inevitable. IMHO, Boris needs to start working on a master unionist strategy for that now.
If lost there’d be very few places to go for the SNP for a 3rd attempt, as all major constitutional and Brexit related changes would be basically over, not that it would stop them trying.
Sturgeon is going into the next SP elections wanting the Tories to say no to the S30 order so they can use it to keep the grievance machine going. That, she hopes, will get them another majority in the SP. after then something might happen but it's still in BJs gift as to whether they allow it and I'd not be surprised if he said no even then.
Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.
So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood
Can't believe Lavery sneaked home. That would have been sweet.
We live in a world where Bolsover is a safer tory seat than Esher and Walton.
Imagine saying that forty years ago, before the men in white coats arrived...
I wondered if Skinner made a really ungracious speech upon losing, but I see that he was not there due to hip surgery.
The most ungracious speech I saw last night was Caroline Lucas (and she won!). It was as if she had learned nothing (especially humility) from the day's events.
I'll never forget her arrogance in speaking for the 'people' after the 2015 Tory win. She's a good speaker, and effective for her cause, but I don't think she is anywhere near as good a person as she thinks she is or people act like she is.
Some NE analysis for you. In the Tees Valley Labour held Stockton North and Hartlepool only thanks to Con/Brexit splitting the leave vote. In the rest of the North East you can add Houghton, Easington, Washington and Wansbeck to the "could have been Con" pile.
So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood
The SNP actually did 8 seats worse than 2015 which was before the Brexit vote and have ended up with 7 seats fewer than the the exit poll despite gains from 2017.
Boris is now the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher with a big majority and can and will ignore Sturgeon, certainly until Holyrood 2021
Comments
Boris is now the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher with a big majority and can and will ignore Sturgeon, certainly until Holyrood 2021
This is why Layla Moran is this morning enjoying a 9k majority in OxWAB as a result of a 9.5% swing to her. When you stand *for* something (science, technology, sensible environmental policies, education - hell, she's been travelling to the EU with members of the ERG to safeguard EU citizens rights after Brexit) rather than just against everything, people will respond positively.
I made a miserly 6% return in 2 weeks across a dozen or so bets. My main bets and strategy were successful.... but I’ve learnt not to place too many insurance bets, as it massively reduced my overall return whilst making risk almost non-existent.
Initial jubilation, and then the dreaded question "how much did you bet?".
"wtf"...
The money is now going to fund our trip to dublin in february...
They've passed the legislation and everything.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
Reading some posts on Twitter led me to think that they got the same vote share as 2005.
I also mis-remembered the majority in 2005 - it was actually 66.
My own memory's working again now I hope but the moral is to never believe anything on social media.
Probably been mentioned already but noticed Lab plus Lib Dem votes is just 25,000 more than the Tories across the entire country with St Ives left to declare. It’s a shame it isn’t the other way round as that would be quite the mandate!
https://twitter.com/DeanCoxj/status/1205432799613870080?s=20
Still, at least we we find out how he intends to govern well before the next election...
And this is why she should be the next Lib Dem leader.
(I don't think this would work by the way, but it would be funny)
Fancy a bet that the lying coward won't do that?
However, all the evidence suggests that at heart he is a fundamentalist, deregulatory, Atlanticist, Trump-supporting, racist, elitist reactionary. I suspect he'll try to win in the same way as he has up to now: lying, stirring up division, blaming foreigners for everything, attacking moslems, making homophobic and racist "jokes". And repaying the billionaire tax-dodging newspaper owners who've given him his career and sheltered him from his shitty actions - anybody else would be pretty much unemployable given his appalling record.
Imagine saying that forty years ago, before the men in white coats arrived...
As Johnson is only interested in what benefits him personally, expect a hard Brexit.
EDIT. I am certain Johnson is aware of the dilemma. The point is, he will prioritise keeping potential Farage factions on board over what's good for the country.
There are many wiser contexts if its about making money.
'Insurance bets' seem to be the idea that you should take some of your profits if available. 'Cut the winners. ride the losses in city-speak'. That's not really regarded as wise.
Incidentally 12 bets tells you nothing. 1200 bets might start to tell you something.
And by the way, 2015.
The disturbing thing about labour's reaction is they don;t appear to think they have done much wrong. Its those pesky voters who are to blame.
Bright, enthusiastic and decent left leaning people are being let down by rotten leadership.
Regardless of SNP mandate in 2016 or not, we must only allow a referendum following a material change at UK level. Otherwise we open up 5 yearly referendums every time they win ScotParl elections. Which would be intolerable.
Boris proved his Deal with the EU was right to avoid a hard border in Ireland, had he not a United Ireland would have been inevitable given there is no longer a Unionist majority in Northern Ireland unlike Scotland (in voteshare at least).
43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for the main Unionist parties the DUP and UUP last night but 54% of Scots voted for the main Unionist parties the Tories, Labour, the LDs and Brexit Party
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/northern_ireland
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/scotland
I have no expectations at all of this government, so I will not be disappointed.
'Brussels plans to insist that in order to get that "quick and dirty" deal, the prime minister would have to sign up to EU conditions: alignment with EU environmental, state aid and tax regulations for example.'
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-50777995
Remind me who has a trade surplus with who again?
https://twitter.com/MASieghart/status/1205473409829920768?s=20
My insurance bets were mostly on seat ranges where I picked up others to make a wider spread green.
As are other outcomes.
Sense ? Is that a particularly significant factor ?
That’s never happened to me at any election before.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/13/labour-why-lost-jeremy-corbyn-brexit-media
Wider still if you're smart enough then trading in the city has huge potential gains.
Wider still, if you have the nouse of Bill Gates then you can do better still.
Betting on politics might make you a few pounds, but you'll do it mainly for the fun even if you're great at it.
More seriously, as the EU bottom lines are very firm (add in access to fishing waters on present terms to the mix) but they don't mind so much about market access, we might as well go for a high access model. We will be paying the same.
Like Trump Boris still narrowly wins with rich voters but it is with the white working class he really wins big
This is man who’s pro having his cake and pro eating it.
Con 370 Lab 205 Lib 13 Green 1 SNP 41 PC 2
that's not far off for Con and Lab
do the same against other data and you get
2015 Con 357 Lab 213 Lib 11 Green 1 SNP 47 PC 3
2010 Con 344 Lab 225 Lib 10 Green 1 SNP 49 PC 3
2005 Con 331 Lab 233 Lib 9 Green 1 SNP 48 PC 4
just goes to show that over the last 10 years there has been a significant structural swing to the Tories and it'll take Labour a couple of elections to swing it back.
To be held early next year.
I must say I do get jealous of people who swan in at the last minute and end up making a bigger profit than me, when I’ve been carefully building and dressing a complex book most nights for weeks.
It is painful for me today (though not as painful as 2015 as this defeat was expected) but I hope the thrashing Labour has had will inject some sense into the Labour party. Brexit was not the issue, it was Corbyn front and centre.
Corbyn has to go as soon as possible. The political future is still very uncertain with both the economy and our trading relationship with the EU and the rest of the World still up for grabs. A sensible centre-left leader should be able to make hay and give Labour a good chance at the next GE - the seats the Tories have won are in theory very vulnerable.
As you know, I am not a fan of Johnson - he has very little integrity for someone who holds the post of PM. PB Tories would say "who cares, it is the winning that matters" and on that note you are probably right.
His approach to Brexit will be determined by keeping together the coalition of voters who turned out in force yesterday, so expect protectionism and strict immigration controls. He's more likely to nuke Brussels than cosy up to it.
So Easington really COULD have gone Tory. Had Brexit not stood
It maybe that after the final Brexit Deal and an outright SNP victory in the SP elections next year in 2021 that a 2nd indyref is inevitable. IMHO, Boris needs to start working on a master unionist strategy for that now.
If lost there’d be very few places to go for the SNP for a 3rd attempt, as all major constitutional and Brexit related changes would be basically over, not that it would stop them trying.
https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1205471667654254592?s=20
Putney, Lab maj:
2019: 4,774
2001: 2,771
1997: 2,976
1974 (O): 2,775
1974 (F): 1,439
1970: 1,394
1966: 3,487
1964: 1,307
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putney_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There is also the year after 2014 and the year before 2016.