politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared
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As long as its not just for Manchester and Leeds.DavidL said:I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
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Hes surely not going to move big names around so soon after appointing them?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, aye. Gove to the Treasury would be a very sound move.
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This would be very interestingGallowgate said:Is there a breakdown anywhere of who’s left in the PLP and whether they are Corbynistas or not?
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I heard comments last night that some PC members in both Ynys Mon and Llanelli were discontented due to having candidates foisted upon them. If you are fighting each other as well as fighting other parties then you are asking for trouble...YBarddCwsc said:
Agreed. The Remain Alliance between 3 parties whose voters have little in common was an act of monumental stupidity.old_labour said:
That was a major screw up on the part of Plaid Cymru. There is a reason why Nicola Sturgeon is Scotland's FM and Adam Price leads a tiny irrelevant group in Wales. Oh, nice to see the Lib Dems were wiped out in Wales.wooliedyed said:How many seats did the remain alliance pick up?
If there was to be a Remain Alliance, it should have been between LibDem and Labour (though of course, Labour did not want that).
Adam Price is lucky that the results in Ceredigion & Arfon went his way. But, Plaid are facing problems. There next set of target seats (Llanelli and Ynys Mon) were a disappointment -- in Llanelli, they even fell behind the Tories.0 -
My mum lived there for many years. I agree, absolutely unbelievable that Corbyn's only skill seems to be in proselytismCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Incidentally, Mansfield, which narrowly went blue in 2017, was over 63% Conservative last night. 63%! Mansfield!0 -
Fewer than said they were yesterdayGallowgate said:Is there a breakdown anywhere of who’s left in the PLP and whether they are Corbynistas or not?
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The CoE job requires both a safe pair of hands and, crucially, imagination. Gove would be the better choice.DavidL said:The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.
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Stayed in the party. Fought deselection, and in Labour most MPs did so successfully. It is the Stalinist Conservative Party which slings out MPs on a whim; it was the same under Cameron. They were all (iirc) in safe seats so they'd be back this morning with their bottoms on the green benches and free to vote for Corbyn's successor.Selebian said:
Maybe. But fought how? Leadership challenge happened and failed badly. If they get a moderate leader this time then yes, perhaps they should have stayed. If not, what should the moderates do? Stay and 'fight'?DecrepiterJohnL said:
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.Selebian said:
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
I do recognise that the failure of TIG will make a future split harder and perhaps less likely.0 -
In the East Midlands Rowley and Bradley have turned their narrow gains from last time into fortresses. My seat Bassetlaw has done it all in one go !KentRising said:
Oh FFS, here we go, the regret narrative like after the referendum.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
It's of course bollocks.
Bolsover isnt coming back to Labour in a hurry would be my guess0 -
If Labour dumps Corbyn and tacks to post-Brexit issues but is still broadly left wing, do you think that's enough? Or is there more to be done?ReggieCide said:
My mum lived there for many years. I agree, absolutely unbelievable that Corbyn's only skill seems to be in proselytismCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Incidentally, Mansfield, which narrowly went blue in 2017, was over 63% Conservative last night. 63%! Mansfield!0 -
That seems to serve a lot of masters if GO would do it.DavidL said:I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
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Oh, and some 3/1 and shorter on the election date.DecrepiterJohnL said:Betting -- having been too busy to bet over the last few weeks, and even yesterday, I have nothing except a couple of longstanding bets for the Brexit Party to win no seats, and for Labour to hold Streatham after Chuka defected. Trouble is, I can't remember who was the bookie for that one but I'm sure they will have paid up. Ironic if it was Tissue Price MP.
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Yougov not so much. I am not sure we will see these mega polls again, fun though they are. And as for the once gold standard ICM, well it’s rude to intrude into private grief.CarlottaVance said:0 -
There are only a small number of ‘Jewish voters’. If you assume approx 75% of the identified number from census of 275k, then that isn’t very many. Perhaps he should should have used the ‘people who don’t agree with discrimination against Jews’ insteadTOPPING said:You can take the anti-semite out of Labour...
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12052985933153771570 -
Morning CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:
Ask me in five years, history isn't really on the side of the Tories on that frontCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Commiserations old chap. Havs to admit I am pleased and relieved by the results. Did you make a profit on the night as some compensation?0 -
Something has changed.1
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He clearly had a bad day at the officeReggieCide said:
Was he doing his Hitler impression or was it Churchillian? Either way he looked like he should be sectioned.HaroldO said:Please watch this insanity:
https://mobile.twitter.com/JodyyDC/status/12053427094368788500 -
Labour MP Dan Carden on BBC blames media bias, false advertising, get brexit done message, and attacks and smears on Corbyn.
Interesting view. Is he saying even non smear attacks are not ok? And I thought we were told the public did not listen to the biased media. Very curious.
More relevant, it's the leaders job to overcome challenges, and worst result since 1935 is clearly not a 'we were great apart from the media' kind of result. The humpty.0 -
Like I said, vacuous. Although as I recall when Blair used this kind of language he was delivering a eulogy to a much loved woman after her sudden death in the middle of the night, he wasn't describing his own government. So I will cut him some slack, but then I have always had an abnormal level of affection for Tony.YBarddCwsc said:
It's more 1997 Blairite than sinister.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It's more vacuous than sinister.nico67 said:Oh God the latest slogan . The People’s Government ! It’s beginning to sound like China .
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The northern cities will never vote Tory. The rural coalfields and small towns otoh...Gallowgate said:
As long as its not just for Manchester and Leeds.DavidL said:I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
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He needs the right people in the right job for the next couple of years at least. Give them the brief, let them run with it. There's unlikely to be Cabinet resignations for big political differences. Stability, ownership - that is what is needed.kle4 said:
Hes surely not going to move big names around so soon after appointing them?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, aye. Gove to the Treasury would be a very sound move.
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Stoke South is now a Tory safe seat! My god!Pulpstar said:
In the East Midlands Rowley and Bradley have turned their narrow gains from last time into fortresses. My seat Bassetlaw has done it all in one go !KentRising said:
Oh FFS, here we go, the regret narrative like after the referendum.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
It's of course bollocks.
Bolsover isnt coming back to Labour in a hurry would be my guess
https://mobile.twitter.com/Election_19/status/12054565193928294410 -
That is exactly true. The problems go back to Leanne Wood who foisted Mari Arthur on Llanelli as a candidate in 2017. Mari fought it again in 2019. She has taken the Plaid Cymru vote down and down.llef said:
I heard comments last night that some PC members in both Ynys Mon and Llanelli were discontented due to having candidates foisted upon them. If you are fighting each other as well as fighting other parties then you are asking for trouble...YBarddCwsc said:
Agreed. The Remain Alliance between 3 parties whose voters have little in common was an act of monumental stupidity.old_labour said:
That was a major screw up on the part of Plaid Cymru. There is a reason why Nicola Sturgeon is Scotland's FM and Adam Price leads a tiny irrelevant group in Wales. Oh, nice to see the Lib Dems were wiped out in Wales.wooliedyed said:How many seats did the remain alliance pick up?
If there was to be a Remain Alliance, it should have been between LibDem and Labour (though of course, Labour did not want that).
Adam Price is lucky that the results in Ceredigion & Arfon went his way. But, Plaid are facing problems. There next set of target seats (Llanelli and Ynys Mon) were a disappointment -- in Llanelli, they even fell behind the Tories.
The Ynys Mon candidature was also a stitch-up -- though to be fair, the Tory candidate was parachuted in as well.
But I agree -- don't mess up your main target seats is a golden rule for a small party wanting to become a bigger one.0 -
Has John Major weighed in?
Its a shame but no surprise those he backed had little chance.0 -
This is my worry that Labour won't get the message / don't want to hear it and elect another very left wing leader and they will carry on with their mad ideas.kle4 said:Labour MP Dan Carden on BBC blames media bias, false advertising, get brexit done message, and attacks and smears on Corbyn.
Interesting view. Is he saying even non smear attacks are not ok? And I thought we were told the public did not listen to the biased media. Very curious.
More relevant, it's the leaders job to overcome challenges, and worst result since 1935 is clearly not a 'we were great apart from the media' kind of result. The humpty.0 -
Ladbrokes. It was incomprehensibly generous from shadsy.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Oh, and some 3/1 and shorter on the election date.DecrepiterJohnL said:Betting -- having been too busy to bet over the last few weeks, and even yesterday, I have nothing except a couple of longstanding bets for the Brexit Party to win no seats, and for Labour to hold Streatham after Chuka defected. Trouble is, I can't remember who was the bookie for that one but I'm sure they will have paid up. Ironic if it was Tissue Price MP.
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Yeah, it was the latter that did for Hammond. Wonder how he feels this morning.geoffw said:
The CoE job requires both a safe pair of hands and, crucially, imagination. Gove would be the better choice.DavidL said:The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.
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Yvette Cooper didn't sail home.
Normonton, Pontefract and Castleford - info on wiki
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normanton,_Pontefract_and_Castleford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
That's a super-safe seat, and she got home with just 1k margin.
I'm not a fan of hers, and I particularly don't envy Ed Balls as her husband, but she's a capable politician. Lloyd Russell-Moyle (as above) seems less so.1 -
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Boris's quandry - is Gove a powerful ally or a threat? I reckon both, hence quandry.geoffw said:
The CoE job requires both a safe pair of hands and, crucially, imagination. Gove would be the better choice.DavidL said:The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.
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It’s coming to the whole north. Devolved combined authorities and growth deals is the next big thing.Gallowgate said:
As long as its not just for Manchester and Leeds.DavidL said:I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
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Did GOD not read the Tory manifesto? FTPA is going.0
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First fall in turnout for a while but thankfully not by much.0
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Also how big is the ERG now? (365 MPs?)Gallowgate said:Is there a breakdown anywhere of who’s left in the PLP and whether they are Corbynistas or not?
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Well that's that then. That's Labour out of power for at least another 10 years, maybe 15. Boris is the master of all he surveys - but Labour....scraping excrement from the bottom of a very rotten bottom and most richly deserved. The LDs back to utter irrelevancy and the SNP Kings of Scotland.
Astonishing night which I'm more than happy to say I did not see coming.0 -
No - although in the long run I think I've broken even due to bets earlier this yearRichard_Tyndall said:
Morning CHBCorrectHorseBattery said:
Ask me in five years, history isn't really on the side of the Tories on that frontCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Commiserations old chap. Havs to admit I am pleased and relieved by the results. Did you make a profit on the night as some compensation?1 -
I wonder if, when Patel (assuming she is still in post) is looking for something to do she might have a major go at the electoral system. New Boundary Commission for example, but also tighter rules on postal voting as in some countries no Opinion Polls in the last few days, to discourage Tactical Voting.DavidL said:
Yougov not so much. I am not sure we will see these mega polls again, fun though they are. And as for the once gold standard ICM, well it’s rude to intrude into private grief.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It isn't even optional. The Tories are now a region focused party. By its very parliamentary make up the focus will swing there.DavidL said:I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
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FrancisUrquhart said:
In England , the final YouGov MRP was also pretty close as an individual constituency predictor, once you add 3% to the Con lead over Lab on UNS to reflect the actual national result. The main fault was that the second MRP had a reduced 8.8% overall lead over Lab compared to 11.1% in the first, which was a polling not a modelling problem.nunu2 said:Damn the first Yougov MRP was close. Lol
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It's the hope that kills you.eek said:It's not all bad for the Lib Dems
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1205450944638533634
Signs are there for a 2024 LD resurgence - and perhaps if Labour becomes less crap they can govern with the LDs and introduce electoral reform.0 -
I did LBC. "Ian in Stockton on Tees" just after 11:30. Described how voters who backed Labour since the Danelaw voted Tory.old_labour said:NorthernPowerhouse said:James O Brian on LBC, clearly this is a bad result for Boris. Managed to get callers who already regret voting Conservative.
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That’s a very perceptive post.CarlottaVance said:A Labour Councillor writes:
https://twitter.com/RM_Leeming/status/1205445289097809920?s=202 -
I also wonder if the LD vote might again come back if Brexit ceases to be an issue, especially in the SW.
It's really in Johnson's hands.0 -
Indeed. Labour promised it too. As I expect some fairweather pr supporters in their ranks, I dont think they planned anything on FPTP.tlg86 said:Did GOD not read the Tory manifesto? FTPA is going.
I do recall Labout named dropped Ynys Mon in the manifesto as let down by the Tories.0 -
Could you imagine a politician from another party that has just been electorally wiped out promising to fight on the streets in resistance? If Tommy Robinson had given a speech like that he would have been in breach of whatever good behaviour bonds/bail he was on.CarlottaVance said:1 -
As the election post-mortems are written, I expect we will see both main parties sent all sorts of mendacious videos and tweets. Lies, trolls and bots on social media are not just for the Russians. And because both parties are complicit, nothing will be done about it even when it is the Russians.kle4 said:Labour MP Dan Carden on BBC blames media bias, false advertising, get brexit done message, and attacks and smears on Corbyn.
Interesting view. Is he saying even non smear attacks are not ok? And I thought we were told the public did not listen to the biased media. Very curious.
More relevant, it's the leaders job to overcome challenges, and worst result since 1935 is clearly not a 'we were great apart from the media' kind of result. The humpty.1 -
Where do you put him though -you can't give him the Foreign Office (he doesn't fly) and he knows the flaws in the home office so he's going to want money for the bits of justice Boris doesn't want to give money to.ReggieCide said:
Boris's quandry - is Gove a powerful ally or a threat? I reckon both, hence quandry.geoffw said:
The CoE job requires both a safe pair of hands and, crucially, imagination. Gove would be the better choice.DavidL said:The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.
I suspect the Treasury is the safest and best place for him.0 -
The Tories won not because they got 2017 Labour to switch to them. Their vote share barely shifted. They won because they were able to win back Brexit Party voters, while Labour were unable to do the same with Lib Dem voters. That was the Johnson/Cummings strategy.
However, none of this helps the Labour Party, who have a Lib Dem problem. Assuming the Tories continue to retain the BP faction, they will always outvote Labour who are unable to get rid of the Lib Dems. I suspect the only way out for Labour in the medium term is to do some kind of pact with the Lib Dems ahead of an election, given they share a some important policies. This is radical and seems unlikely however.
For the same reason, I don't expect a government pivot to a soft Brexit. It will probably risk-accept the damage a Hard Brexit will do to the country. The Tories can afford it as long as maybe Brexit Party supporters continue to vote for them.0 -
I think you slightly misremember -- although I agree Blair's single most memorable instance was the Peoples' PrincessOnlyLivingBoy said:
Like I said, vacuous. Although as I recall when Blair used this kind of language he was delivering a eulogy to a much loved woman after her sudden death in the middle of the night, he wasn't describing his own government. So I will cut him some slack, but then I have always had an abnormal level of affection for Tony.YBarddCwsc said:
It's more 1997 Blairite than sinister.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It's more vacuous than sinister.nico67 said:Oh God the latest slogan . The People’s Government ! It’s beginning to sound like China .
I agree it is vacuous spin-doctoring, whoever does it.0 -
He writes well and talks senseCarlottaVance said:A Labour Councillor writes:
https://twitter.com/RM_Leeming/status/1205445289097809920?s=200 -
I really enjoyed his observations last night. And those of Ed Balls and Ruth. ITV coverage could have covered more counts but other than that it was simply miles ahead of the BBC which I barely dipped into.RobD said:
Perhaps he'd like a peerage?DavidL said:I think that the budget will restart Osborne ‘s Northern Powerhouse idea with some significant capital expenditure as a thank you to these new Tory seats. It would be great if he could talk George back into running it.
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I don't know why you think I would know the answer and if I did, why you would think that I would tell you 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Labour dumps Corbyn and tacks to post-Brexit issues but is still broadly left wing, do you think that's enough? Or is there more to be done?ReggieCide said:
My mum lived there for many years. I agree, absolutely unbelievable that Corbyn's only skill seems to be in proselytismCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Incidentally, Mansfield, which narrowly went blue in 2017, was over 63% Conservative last night. 63%! Mansfield!0 -
I thought you were a Lib Dem?CorrectHorseBattery said:My advice would be this. If you're left like me and genuinely want a Labour Government, join the Labour Party as I am going to and vote against the Corbynite candidate
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He’s also quite good at delegation. He will want his ministers to get on with it.MarqueeMark said:
He needs the right people in the right job for the next couple of years at least. Give them the brief, let them run with it. There's unlikely to be Cabinet resignations for big political differences. Stability, ownership - that is what is needed.kle4 said:
Hes surely not going to move big names around so soon after appointing them?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, aye. Gove to the Treasury would be a very sound move.
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No I tactically voted LD but I am not a supporter of theirsNemtynakht said:
I thought you were a Lib Dem?CorrectHorseBattery said:My advice would be this. If you're left like me and genuinely want a Labour Government, join the Labour Party as I am going to and vote against the Corbynite candidate
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"Our videos were seen by 70,000,000 viewers..."
https://twitter.com/AnneMcGuire97/status/1205457712626241539?s=200 -
Was only interested to hear your views from the ground. But no worries, all the best.ReggieCide said:
I don't know why you think I would know the answer and if I did, why you would think that I would tell you 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Labour dumps Corbyn and tacks to post-Brexit issues but is still broadly left wing, do you think that's enough? Or is there more to be done?ReggieCide said:
My mum lived there for many years. I agree, absolutely unbelievable that Corbyn's only skill seems to be in proselytismCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Incidentally, Mansfield, which narrowly went blue in 2017, was over 63% Conservative last night. 63%! Mansfield!0 -
Hmmm, when I get to my desk I will check but I think POSSOM will be spot on this election.0
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I thought it would be dark so I got that rightJason said:Well that's that then. That's Labour out of power for at least another 10 years, maybe 15. Boris is the master of all he surveys - but Labour....scraping excrement from the bottom of a very rotten bottom and most richly deserved. The LDs back to utter irrelevancy and the SNP Kings of Scotland.
Astonishing night which I'm more than happy to say I did not see coming.0 -
SNP on 45% declaring total victory. Where do I remember that figure from...1
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Blair (or Al C) nicked it from Bill Clinton who spoke about "the People's House" after some fruitcake had tried to blow up 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.YBarddCwsc said:
I think you slightly misremember -- although I agree Blair's single most memorable instance was the Peoples' PrincessOnlyLivingBoy said:
Like I said, vacuous. Although as I recall when Blair used this kind of language he was delivering a eulogy to a much loved woman after her sudden death in the middle of the night, he wasn't describing his own government. So I will cut him some slack, but then I have always had an abnormal level of affection for Tony.YBarddCwsc said:
It's more 1997 Blairite than sinister.OnlyLivingBoy said:
It's more vacuous than sinister.nico67 said:Oh God the latest slogan . The People’s Government ! It’s beginning to sound like China .
I agree it is vacuous spin-doctoring, whoever does it.0 -
Redcar went LD a few years ago. Very able MP, too, as I recall. Didn't stand again, sadly. Stockton S has been both Labour and Conservative in recent times.RochdalePioneers said:
I did LBC. "Ian in Stockton on Tees" just after 11:30. Described how voters who backed Labour since the Danelaw voted Tory.old_labour said:NorthernPowerhouse said:James O Brian on LBC, clearly this is a bad result for Boris. Managed to get callers who already regret voting Conservative.
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They fetishise that they say they represent the young and that Corbyn got such a high vote in 2017 as a reason to ignore everything else.CarlottaVance said:"Our videos were seen by 70,000,000 viewers..."
https://twitter.com/AnneMcGuire97/status/1205457712626241539?s=200 -
Depends on the leaders.FF43 said:The Tories won not because they got 2017 Labour to switch to them. Their vote share barely shifted. They won because they were able to win back Brexit Party voters, while Labour were unable to do the same with Lib Dem voters. That was the Johnson/Cummings strategy.
However, none of this helps the Labour Party, who have a Lib Dem problem. Assuming the Tories continue to retain the BP faction, they will always outvote Labour who are unable to get rid of the Lib Dems. I suspect the only way out for Labour in the medium term is to do some kind of pact with the Lib Dems ahead of an election, given they share a some important policies. This is radical and seems unlikely however.
Jess Phillips/Stella Creasy and Layla Moran? Yes, I could see it.
Rebecca Wrong Daily and Ed Davey? Maybe not so much.
(Stephen Bush is good on this today: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/labour-progressive-alliance-power-right-wing-extremism-corbyn-johnson-1340082 )0 -
So about these boundaries....?0
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I agree best but, from Boris's perspective, safest? It's a big platform.eek said:
Where do you put him though -you can't give him the Foreign Office (he doesn't fly) and he knows the flaws in the home office so he's going to want money for the bits of justice Boris doesn't want to give money to.ReggieCide said:
Boris's quandry - is Gove a powerful ally or a threat? I reckon both, hence quandry.geoffw said:
The CoE job requires both a safe pair of hands and, crucially, imagination. Gove would be the better choice.DavidL said:The budget is the key and will set most of the agenda. Will Boris trust the Saj to deliver it? He’s seriously underperformed so far. Personally I would like Gove to take over there and start the hard thinking that is required.
I suspect the Treasury is the safest and best place for him.0 -
Seems in hindsight Labour in 2017 got a high vote in spite of Corbyn not because of him0
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The think is. is that the broadcasters had to be unbiased, or try to be (Channel 4 excluded here who may have broken the law.???).. their reports told me nothing about who might be winning, no vox pops to give any form of clarity, so we didn't know.ReggieCide said:
I thought it would be dark so I got that rightJason said:Well that's that then. That's Labour out of power for at least another 10 years, maybe 15. Boris is the master of all he surveys - but Labour....scraping excrement from the bottom of a very rotten bottom and most richly deserved. The LDs back to utter irrelevancy and the SNP Kings of Scotland.
Astonishing night which I'm more than happy to say I did not see coming.
Time to reconsider what broadcasters can say at a GE. After all, C4 didn't give a stuff so why should the others?0 -
@Stocky, in possibly the sincerest post I have ever posted on here, the entire point of me being on this bloody site is so I can become that smug!Stocky said:
You can`t possibly feel more smugger than I am this morning.viewcode said:
I really have to start betting more money. I'm being out-smugged...Stocky said:
I`m pleased to report overall profit of around £1,200.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
Will pay for family lift passes in Tignes next week plus some.
(Congrats to you both, btw)0 -
Speaking of whom, his co-written thriller has gained surprisingly favourable reviews. I've not read it.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Blair (or Al C) nicked it from Bill Clinton
https://www.amazon.co.uk/President-Missing-Bill-Clinton/dp/17874601770 -
Labourites fear not, the fightback is on...kle4 said:They fetishise that they say they represent the young and that Corbyn got such a high vote in 2017 as a reason to ignore everything else.
https://twitter.com/JodyyDC/status/12053427094368788500 -
So net net the £3 was well spent by those anti-Corbynites who joined to make him leader so that he would lose.RobD said:
PB Tories, you know your duty.CorrectHorseBattery said:My advice would be this. If you're left like me and genuinely want a Labour Government, join the Labour Party as I am going to and vote against the Corbynite candidate
(joking, of course
)0 -
Electoral reform is something everybody can get behind...OldKingCole said:
I wonder if, when Patel (assuming she is still in post) is looking for something to do she might have a major go at the electoral system. New Boundary Commission for example, but also tighter rules on postal voting as in some countries no Opinion Polls in the last few days, to discourage Tactical Voting.
1. Making the constituencies as fair as is reasonably possible.
2. Ensuring the integrity of the electoral process whilst still enabling those who genuinely can't get to a polling station to still use a postal vote.
Neither of these things are contentious in my view.1 -
I think this really does come down to whether Labour think their hole is so deep that they would be willing to support PR.FF43 said:
However, none of this helps the Labour Party, who have a Lib Dem problem. Assuming the Tories continue to retain the BP faction, they will always outvote Labour who are unable to get rid of the Lib Dems. I suspect the only way out for Labour in the medium term is to do some kind of pact with the Lib Dems ahead of an election, given they share a some important policies. This is radical and seems unlikely however.
Labour's hole is deep because they are trying to appeal to two very different constituencies, the traditional working-class, and the University-educated young middle-class.
Unfortunately for Labour, Brexit become a touchstone issue for both.
It is possible that Labour -- looking at what has happened to the Socialists in France or the SDP in Germany -- might finally come round to PR as the best way of saving themselves.1 -
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Even better if we had a fair voting system. But no chance of that, especially with Patel in post.SunnyJim said:
Electoral reform is something everybody can get behind...OldKingCole said:
I wonder if, when Patel (assuming she is still in post) is looking for something to do she might have a major go at the electoral system. New Boundary Commission for example, but also tighter rules on postal voting as in some countries no Opinion Polls in the last few days, to discourage Tactical Voting.
1. Making the constituencies as fair as is reasonably possible.
2. Ensuring the integrity of the electoral process whilst still enabling those who genuinely can't get to a polling station to still use a postal vote.
Neither of these things are contentious in my view.0 -
There should never be any political talk of fighting in the streets. What politicians mean by it isn't the same as the way its interpreted.NorthernPowerhouse said:
Could you imagine a politician from another party that has just been electorally wiped out promising to fight on the streets in resistance? If Tommy Robinson had given a speech like that he would have been in breach of whatever good behaviour bonds/bail he was on.CarlottaVance said:
This is not a good MP.0 -
What an odious man. Fight them with all you've got, I hope many do, and I get he is rallying his faithful, but tone it down a notch.MyBurningEars said:
Labourites fear not, the fightback is on...kle4 said:They fetishise that they say they represent the young and that Corbyn got such a high vote in 2017 as a reason to ignore everything else.
https://twitter.com/JodyyDC/status/12053427094368788501 -
Finally went to bed at 5am, happy.
Up at 8 for work.
Let's get Breakfast Done!
2 -
I would have thought a period of silence from a number of people here would be sensible. They can’t help it though - quickly making predictions about the many ways in which the Conservatives will fail. While explaining that the voters are thick.2
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I understood, but it is the $64,000 question isn't it.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Was only interested to hear your views from the ground. But no worries, all the best.ReggieCide said:
I don't know why you think I would know the answer and if I did, why you would think that I would tell you 😊CorrectHorseBattery said:
If Labour dumps Corbyn and tacks to post-Brexit issues but is still broadly left wing, do you think that's enough? Or is there more to be done?ReggieCide said:
My mum lived there for many years. I agree, absolutely unbelievable that Corbyn's only skill seems to be in proselytismCookie said:
I don't think they're taking them for granted! They've only held these seats for around 10 hours.CorrectHorseBattery said:If the Tories take these seats for granted, Labour has a window.
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1205448236846256128?s=20
But they need to get rid of Corbyn urgently.
Incidentally, Mansfield, which narrowly went blue in 2017, was over 63% Conservative last night. 63%! Mansfield!0 -
another deluded fool.MyBurningEars said:
Labourites fear not, the fightback is on...kle4 said:They fetishise that they say they represent the young and that Corbyn got such a high vote in 2017 as a reason to ignore everything else.
https://twitter.com/JodyyDC/status/12053427094368788501 -
Like losing.kle4 said:
They fetishise that they say they represent the young and that Corbyn got such a high vote in 2017 as a reason to ignore everything else.CarlottaVance said:"Our videos were seen by 70,000,000 viewers..."
https://twitter.com/AnneMcGuire97/status/1205457712626241539?s=20
Twice.0 -
I'm not sure what is wrong with tactical voting as such. I suspect a lot of labour voters voted tory because of Corbyn, rather than pro Johnson. (little do they know..).SunnyJim said:
Electoral reform is something everybody can get behind...OldKingCole said:
I wonder if, when Patel (assuming she is still in post) is looking for something to do she might have a major go at the electoral system. New Boundary Commission for example, but also tighter rules on postal voting as in some countries no Opinion Polls in the last few days, to discourage Tactical Voting.
1. Making the constituencies as fair as is reasonably possible.
2. Ensuring the integrity of the electoral process whilst still enabling those who genuinely can't get to a polling station to still use a postal vote.
Neither of these things are contentious in my view.
When you have an unfair voting system the only thing left for minority parties is tactical voting!0 -
@RobinWiggs that looks good.2
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‘ The Labour Party has consistently misjudged the mood of the electorate. The party is fixated on the negative; cuts, austerity, poverty etc. We have forgotten that there are lots of people who are sort of doing OK. In fact the Resolution Foundation found recently that people in the UK have never been happier, more here. What is the Labour Party’s message for happy people, people who are doing OK, people who want to get on and enjoy their lives? How do we combine our vital message on social and economic justice with the need to serve people who aren’t living precarious lives?“El_Capitano said:
That’s a very perceptive post.CarlottaVance said:A Labour Councillor writes:
https://twitter.com/RM_Leeming/status/1205445289097809920?s=20
This! Labour had got itself into the cul de sac of seeking more and more outrage. Ramping up the notion of poverty Britain. You were either a billionaire or living in squaller surviving off food banks.
For most people life is pretty good. Fuel prices haven’t increased for years, energy prices dropped, low interest rates, full employment wage rises filtering through. Ramping up this almost poverty p*rn, with shows like Dispatches do a show about starving children while interviewing their morbidly obese mother without making comment. Everyone else watching the show makes the comments. The family with seven children complaining that their universal credit doesn’t pay well enough etc etc.
Normal hard working people often see right through this.3 -
i meant 3rd parties.Daveyboy1961 said:
I'm not sure what is wrong with tactical voting as such. I suspect a lot of labour voters voted tory because of Corbyn, rather than pro Johnson. (little do they know..).SunnyJim said:
Electoral reform is something everybody can get behind...OldKingCole said:
I wonder if, when Patel (assuming she is still in post) is looking for something to do she might have a major go at the electoral system. New Boundary Commission for example, but also tighter rules on postal voting as in some countries no Opinion Polls in the last few days, to discourage Tactical Voting.
1. Making the constituencies as fair as is reasonably possible.
2. Ensuring the integrity of the electoral process whilst still enabling those who genuinely can't get to a polling station to still use a postal vote.
Neither of these things are contentious in my view.
When you have an unfair voting system the only thing left for minority parties is tactical voting!0 -
and another one...kle4 said:
They fetishise that they say they represent the young and that Corbyn got such a high vote in 2017 as a reason to ignore everything else.CarlottaVance said:"Our videos were seen by 70,000,000 viewers..."
https://twitter.com/AnneMcGuire97/status/1205457712626241539?s=200 -
Unfair, I think.CorrectHorseBattery said:Seems in hindsight Labour in 2017 got a high vote in spite of Corbyn not because of him
Corbyn was fresh as a leader, untainted with antisemitism, had some interesting policies and crucially fudged the Brexit issue so he kept both Remainers and Leavers onside.
The problem was Brexit could only be fudged for so long. Corby should have taken May's deal, made some conditions say on the environment or worker's right, and then supported it.
May would have agreed anything -- she was desperate.
It would have got Brexit out of the way, and Corby could have fought any subsequent election (which would have been part of the deal) on better territory.0 -
I thought you only got the "honourable" bit if you were a member of the Privy Council. Or have I misunderstood?kle4 said:
We must call him the honourable Mr Bell now by law.old_labour said:On a personal note, congratulations to Aaron on his success at the general election.
Though I doubt we will see him post again.0
