politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2019 – the result with two seats to be declared
Comments
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Mr. Battery, the problem is it isn't surprising at all. They're zealots. They're political fundamentalists. Facts won't stand in the way of their faith.0
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"Labour won more votes in this election than in 2005"RobD said:
Wow! They really are that dense!!!0 -
Really?Casino_Royale said:
You did well.Barnesian said:
Mine is a mixed bag. About £70 profit in all, bolstered by the big bet I placed on Sarah Olney. It motivated me yesterday as Ied the GOTV in Barnes. I was up for 25 hours on the trot. Shattered today.Casino_Royale said:Turns out I didn't do too badly in my betting, as it happens.
Over £300+ profit.
My model has gone in for major repairs. Not sure it's repairable. I have 5 years. Probably get a new one.
I can’t talk. I spent most of the the campaign crapping my pants.
ROFL...
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I've done my sums and I'm up either £2.2K or £2.3K, depending on the final St Ives result. The odd thing is that I didn't really bet very much on the main result. I had a couple of dozen constituency bets, which went very well indeed sometimes at quite good odds, and a sell of the LibDems on the spreads at 45, which was obviously a nice one. I also did very well on SPIN's 25-10-0 markets - I looked for cases where the third-ranked party had little chance of coming second but was priced at between 3 and 6 points in most cases (9.5 in the case of the LibDems in Putney!!) and sold them, making a profit on all the seats I went for. Also turnout, zero seats for the BXP, less than 5 for PC, and Alistair's late tip on SNP under 55.5.4
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Labour stood in 2005?RochdalePioneers said:
"Labour won more votes in this election than in 2005"RobD said:
Wow! They really are that dense!!!
*innocent face*0 -
Gapes came a poor third in Ilford South. Sam Tarry is the new MP.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
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I know it came up a few times in the GE campaign, but I dont remember immigration being a huge focus. It definitely was part of Brexit but its toys out the pram to think thats it.Fenster said:https://twitter.com/JohnHannah/status/1205272337752436736
This will win them back.1 -
If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.1
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The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?Chris said:
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.WhisperingOracle said:
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.2 -
Agree with the last sentence. For the rest, let's hope for the best.DavidL said:So Boris will now deliver Brexit. The trade deal with the EU will swiftly follow. It’s already in the political declaration. The world will not end, indeed our economy will outgrow the EZ in 2020. There is much to do. We will have a high spending, increased borrowing budget that will prove counter cyclical as the EZ mess slows us down. Boris will lead as the one nation socially liberal Tory he always was. Things can only get better.
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There's potential for quite a bit of activity in 2020 that has been backed up for months or years, put on hold waiting for Brexit to deliver some clarity. The housing market could start moving again. Investment decisions unlocked. Peope might start spending a little more freely. There could be the start of a feelgood factor as activity cranks up.DavidL said:So Boris will now deliver Brexit. The trade deal with the EU will swiftly follow. It’s already in the political declaration. The world will not end, indeed our economy will outgrow the EZ in 2020. There is much to do. We will have a high spending, increased borrowing budget that will prove counter cyclical as the EZ mess slows us down. Boris will lead as the one nation socially liberal Tory he always was. Things can only get better.
Interesting times ahead.0 -
They never learn, unlike PB Tories.TOPPING said:
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?Chris said:
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.WhisperingOracle said:
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
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Betting -- having been too busy to bet over the last few weeks, and even yesterday, I have nothing except a couple of longstanding bets for the Brexit Party to win no seats, and for Labour to hold Streatham after Chuka defected. Trouble is, I can't remember who was the bookie for that one but I'm sure they will have paid up. Ironic if it was Tissue Price MP.0
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If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.0
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He did better than 'lost my deposit' former shadow chancellor of the exchequer Chris Leslie though!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Gapes came a poor third in Ilford South. Sam Tarry is the new MP.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
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I can't see how the UK stays together anyway, and I think the Tories probably already know that.nico67 said:If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.
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Love it. It sums up the campaign as well: You ancient, dying, Fascist Tory scum, Marxist Labour is sweeping the country and chucking Jewish MPs out; can we count on your vote on Thursday?Fenster said:https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1205266744002142208
And this is a winner too.
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"The left"? You make me laugh.TOPPING said:
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?Chris said:
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.WhisperingOracle said:
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Their movement really is going nowhere (near No 10!)RochdalePioneers said:
"Labour won more votes in this election than in 2005"RobD said:
Wow! They really are that dense!!!0 -
Thailand went from a rural subsistence fishing and peasant agricultural economy to to a modern industrial society in the space of a single generation. In the UK we have the legacy of been the first industrial nation, and coping with infrastructure decisions made a hundred years ago. Our exchange is in the middle of the town because of its location to the tram service for its mostly female staff to access. The tram in on that route because it linked the railways, the factories and the tram sheds that hug a road that was made by the Emperor Hadrian two thousand years ago.OldKingCole said:
Son 2 is over from Thailand and complaining about my broadband's speed. I get about 60; he gets over 100glw said:
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says:eek said:
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Free broadband would be a good starting point...RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities likend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructureb, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.0 -
Glad I've amused you. Then whatever the fuck side of the political spectrum you are. Patronising the voters says more about you than your arch comments.Chris said:
"The left"? You make me laugh.TOPPING said:
The left never stops patronising the voting public, does it?Chris said:
I wonder if an urgent IQ assessment could be made of the new Tory intake.WhisperingOracle said:
A lot of these new MP's are going to be more sympathetic to Steve Baker than Ken Clarke. He has a problem with this immediately.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Me too. Johnson has the numbers for a genuinely bridging Brexit of a Norway-style that May never pursued. Will he take it?glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.0 -
Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.0 -
But you're missing the fact that many of them will now have a vote in the Lib Dem leadership election!DecrepiterJohnL said:
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.Selebian said:
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
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Corbyn will presumably want to stay on until his important work tackling anti-semitism in the party is complete.
Or perhaps he''l become president in perpetuity or something, with two co-leaders who embrace diametrically opposite views as I think was the suggestion.
Strange how crap Labour are at dealing with defeat - especially since they've had so much recent practice.
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For me the real villains in the Labour party who have stood for Parliament for the past 5 weeks and asked voters to put Corbyn and the cult into power. Had he won they'd have been fawning at his feet. Kudos to the few who had the guts to walk out before. The rest - if you lost your seat suck it up and if you won your seat suck it up again! With special extra penance for the ex Blairite ex MP NP!
I've so wanted to write this for quite a while now.
And breathe.
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If the Tories win St Ives I think we should scroll back and see who predicted 365 seats, one for every day of the year. I definitely think we should do that
We will ignore the labour under 200 bit though
We could also check out if anyone predicted the Norwich south result extremely accurately.
*pleased with self*
P.s. my constituency bets were a disaster!!2 -
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.Paristonda said:Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.0 -
Any idea what the majority would have been with the new boundaries? Surely over 100?0
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Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?WhisperingOracle said:
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.Paristonda said:Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.0 -
A touch unfair. I am sure people are tired and in shock this morning. The next few days are important, but right now they deserve some slack.Omnium said:Corbyn will presumably want to stay on until his important work tackling anti-semitism in the party is complete.
Or perhaps he''l become president in perpetuity or something, with two co-leaders who embrace diametrically opposite views as I think was the suggestion.
Strange how crap Labour are at dealing with defeat - especially since they've had so much recent practice.0 -
They didn't change the underlying poll numbers of a 55/45 remain split. Corbyn and Swinson, by acting with ridiculous over-confidence, failed to convert that into a victory.RobD said:
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?WhisperingOracle said:
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.Paristonda said:Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.0 -
Now everyone knows what a border between the EU and non EU is like, and how the Ireland matter can only be sorted because there is a convenient sea as an extra barrier, attention will have to turn in detail to how the England/Scotland border running from west to East would be managed. The last serious effort is now a World Heritage Site but it is not a happy precedent and didn't last.WhisperingOracle said:
I can't see how the UK stays together anyway, and I think the Tories probably already know that.nico67 said:If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.
I think it is true that very single seat on both sides of the Scottish/English border is currently Tory.
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So they were trying to stop it all along?CarlottaVance said:0 -
WilliamsonNorthernPowerhouse said:
Sue HaymanStocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Laura Pidcock
I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
Dent Coad
Wollaston (that one was personal!)
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Cummings will be directing the next couple of years of policy for Boris.OldKingCole said:
I wondered, listening (sort of) to Johnson this morning whether the skids aren't under Cummings. He's been useful, done what Boris wanted, now 'go away'.
He will have a 'to do' list a mile long.1 -
PidcockMarqueeMark said:
WilliamsonNorthernPowerhouse said:
Sue HaymanStocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Laura Pidcock
I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
Dent Coad
Wollaston (that one was personal!)
Swinson
The ghost of Tom Watson0 -
The Blob should be very afraid....SunnyJim said:
Cummings will be directing the next couple of years of policy for Boris.OldKingCole said:
I wondered, listening (sort of) to Johnson this morning whether the skids aren't under Cummings. He's been useful, done what Boris wanted, now 'go away'.
He will have a 'to do' list a mile long.0 -
… or they were waiting for the parliament to be able to pass the withdrawal agreement.RobD said:
So they were trying to stop it all along?CarlottaVance said:0 -
I know there are a couple of unionist Tories on here but I would say the majority of us would be more than willing to help the SNP achieve their aims.nico67 said:If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.
I would wish them well as we wave them off.0 -
Congratulations to the Tories. They played it perfectly. I will repeat what I said last night: there is no need for them to tinker with our constitution; if the government is tempted to do it to increase the power of the executive and reduce scrutiny of it I just hope there are enough Tory MPs with the gumption to say no. Beyond that, let's get Brexit done as smoothly and as pragmatically as possible. Again, there is no need to do anything else. A trade deal with the US is not worth the pain and most voters will agree with that.1
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Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
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We could have been here years ago - in that parallel universe where Gove wasn't persuaded to knife Boris after Cameron quit.....CarlottaVance said:1 -
Nice interactive results map in the Independent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-result-live-tracker-constituency-vote-conservatives-labour-a9243856.html0 -
Why do you say that ? Rejoin I think, maybe, but not Remain.Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
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James O Brian on LBC, clearly this is a bad result for Boris. Managed to get callers who already regret voting Conservative.0
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Morning all.
Feel like I do the morning after England get knocked out of a World Cup - you know it's going to happen but it still hurts at the time. Last night was not even a closely fought battle lost on penalties - the left were outplayed and scored more than a few own-goals.
Well done to all the Tory and/or Leave supporters on here celebrating - enjoy your win!
And well done to all those who predicted all this over the past 6 months or so, especially @HYUFD - I strongly disagree with your politics but can't fault your reading of the situation.1 -
Once we've left Scottish Nationalism is a shot fox. If they want to leave then, the border is their problem and their Belgian friends will be insisting on a hard one to protect their precious single market.nico67 said:If the Tories want to keep the UK together then they’d better get a trade deal. Leaving on WTO will be another gift to the SNP.
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Really? Remain is dead on the carpet.Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
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Maybe. But fought how? Leadership challenge happened and failed badly. If they get a moderate leader this time then yes, perhaps they should have stayed. If not, what should the moderates do? Stay and 'fight'?DecrepiterJohnL said:
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.Selebian said:
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
I do recognise that the failure of TIG will make a future split harder and perhaps less likely.0 -
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...1 -
I have spent the last couple of years furious with the antics of remainers in parliament.RobD said:
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?
What I couldn't see was they were setting up a perfect storm for Boris.
If they hadn't done their best to obstruct the referendum result then last night definitely wouldn't have happened.0 -
Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.1 -
Do they? There's probably a tight margin if the referendum was re-run, but in the absence of that I suspect the number who want to simply overturn the previous referendum is a lot smaller.Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Corbyn was 'non cooperatable'. If there isn't such a word there should be.WhisperingOracle said:
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.Paristonda said:Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
I think that of the two issues in this election, Brexit and Corbyn that Corbyn had the bigger effect.0 -
Last night was very much a reaction to those MPs who thought their opinion counted more than that of their constituents. Very much at the sharp end of seeing it down in Totnes....RobD said:
Don't forget the scheming antics of Remainers in parliament. Benn Act, anyone?WhisperingOracle said:
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain.Paristonda said:Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.0 -
Anything else and the forces of remain will use it's control of the Commons to.... ooopsGallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
As I continually reported, Corbyn came up time and time again - unprompted - as a reason why people were voting against Labour.logical_song said:
Corbyn was 'non cooperatable'. If there isn't such a word there should be.WhisperingOracle said:
The non-co-operation of Swinson and Corbyn destroyed Remain, as it was easy to see that it would.Paristonda said:Another victim of the election appears to be tactical voting, which seems to have not really been effective outside of a few key seats. Confusion over who was really winning led to losses in Finchley, Kensington, and others. A new Labour leader would be wise to realise that they will need to put tribalism behind them and come to some sort of arrangement with LDs and Greens.
Corbyn and Brexit both look to blame, but the first being the clear issue. Labour vote share fell across the board pretty much, Corbyn is toxic. Yet its also clear that the brexit issue has been decided, and any future Labour leader is going to have to be accepting of that. For the Lib Dems I think they need to focus on saying single market membership, but going for rejoin this early on will not be credible. I don't think we will ever rejoin though.
I think that of the two issues in this election, Brexit and Corbyn that Corbyn had the bigger effect.0 -
Anything else then in 5 years it will be easy to convince the public that Boris and Leave lied to them and the “easy fix” will be to rejoin the EU. Not true? Who cares. It doesn’t matter anymore apparently.maaarsh said:
Anything else and the forces of remain will use it's control of the Commons to.... ooopsGallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Morning all. Grieve, Grieve, Grieve and then Grieve. After that Pidcock and Wollaston. Well done Marquee Mark.wooliedyed said:
PidcockMarqueeMark said:
WilliamsonNorthernPowerhouse said:
Sue HaymanStocky said:Will PBers please share their personal favourite top 3 MP ejections.
Mine are:
Sam Gyimah
Paula Sherriff
Sarah Wollaston
Don`t say Swinson, I`m upset about her as it is. She needs a cuddle (not in that way).
Laura Pidcock
I want to feel joy at Skinner, but he's an old ill man and i find myself reflecting a bit on the decades of service he has given.
Dent Coad
Wollaston (that one was personal!)
Swinson
The ghost of Tom Watson
Thanks to everyone who contributed to PB overnight.1 -
Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?0
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Remain is dead already. Its whether rejoin gets any traction.WhisperingOracle said:
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
It will depend on what Boris does.SunnyJim said:
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Overall I agree, but as Gallowgate implies the wildcard is how many of the new intake are sufficiently opposed to a softer Brexit.kle4 said:
Remain is dead already. Its whether rejoin gets any traction.WhisperingOracle said:
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
On a personal note, congratulations to Aaron on his success at the general election.7
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Blimey he's only two and he can check the broadband speed. A child genius!OldKingCole said:
Son 2 is over from Thailand and complaining about my broadband's speed. I get about 60; he gets over 100glw said:
That's broadly what is happening now anyway. Openreach is now on a fibre-preferred footing for upgrades and new installations. City Fibre is aiming to do 5 million properties, with Vodafone and maybe others as partners. Virgin Media is expanding its footprint, is putting in FTTP, and even has a 10 million new properties plan. There are other companies also working on rolling out fibre.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Broadband -- free or not is unclear -- actually is in the Conservative manifesto, a point perhaps missed by both attackers and defenders of Labour's policy. It says:eek said:
Free broadband is pointless - it's not exactly expensive at the best of times. A free mobile for the unemployed would be a better plan and cost peanuts in the scheme of things.IshmaelZ said:
Free broadband would be a good starting point...RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! A thoroughly entertaining election with some genuine "you're fucking kidding me" moments with yellow team at the Stockton South count as results started coming in.
In any election you always get the correct result. Even if that includes insanities likend a £fuckton of cash up here on infrastructure. Transform the place with a Blue stamp and repeat the message "What did Labour ever do for you"
My big hope is that Cummings remains around and starts implementing what is discussed https://unherd.com/2019/12/is-this-the-tories-real-manifesto/ - the north needs to be reinvented - it's going to be hard work but it has to be done.
If this Conservative Government is returned to office, we will have an infrastructureb, and so many more projects, as well as a massive programme of improvements for our roads and gigabit broadband for every home and business.
Labour's plan to nationalise Openreach would have almost certainly brought this ongoing work to a halt.
Hopefully a period of political stablity, relatively, and some certainty about our relationship with the EU, will mean that companies can get investing again.
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I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.SunnyJim said:
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Probably not for the next election, as it would be premature, but I expect there will be a 'movement' for rejoin by the usual suspects formed next year.SunnyJim said:
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
My opinion is the former. They have been moving rightwards since the pits closed. And while Brexit is important to some of these voters, %Leave is more important as an indicator for a much wider set of views on the world. You can't now simply graft leaving the EU onto an otherwise Metropolitan set of views and expect voters to come back.nunu2 said:Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?
1 -
How many seats were the Lib Dems second in?0
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All single-industry towns are changing out of recognition. Look at the size of the Tory majority in taking Scunthorpe last night. Places like Scunthorpe and down the road in Doncaster are moving to things like distribution. They are already reinventing themselves on the outskirts. As they do, they are becoming ever more Tory. They need a helping hand from Govt. though on the town centres.nunu2 said:Are the English coalfields becoming more like West Virginia in their voting habits, or is this all about Brexit?
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If Johnson can dominate his party and push through a softer Brexit, or somehow mitigate a harder Brexit in the Tories' new northern seats with a lot of new spending, I think they will. If he doesn't though, and a harder Brexit immediately impacts the Tories' new seats, obviously they won't.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I don't think we will rejoin the EU in the next twenty years. It will take us that long to figure out we need to be inside it and for the EU to decide they can trust us inside, just like last time. Labour should ignore the issue for now, there's only downside for them and the issue is settled, even though the decision taken was the wrong one.SunnyJim said:
Do you think Labour will move to a rejoin position in readiness for the next election?Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Mr. Cookie, what happened on House of Games?
Mr. Kirk, neither England nor Scotland existed, and the Antonine Wall postdated Hadrian's Wall.
Edited extra bit: missed a word.0 -
Corbyn is saying his byebyes as leader; his cult are still dominant amongst the membership.Cookie said:
Or departed in greater numbers, earlier, about the time of the Owen Smith challenge.DecrepiterJohnL said:
It was a stupid thing to do. They should have stayed and fought. Then they'd still be MPs today when Corbyn is saying his goodbyes.Selebian said:
Yes. It's a shame, in most cases. They completely messed up TIG, but it was the right thing to do, particularly on the Labour side, just done badly. They took a risk and paid the price.Richard_Nabavi said:None of the 11 original TIGGers won a seat anywhere, am I right?
Personally I think they will still have to be dragged out by their short hairs with a bulldozer, be more marginalized, or we need a new centre-left force to be sourced somewhere else.
(Surfaced an hour ago; now upcatching; I owe Nabavi's charity £20. And regret not betting on Davey for LD Leader at 10:1 yesterday)0 -
Look where prejudgement has got you. Why do you want to do it again? Deal with it as it is. I voted Tory but I'm no fan of Boris; who knows how his support is made up. I suspect that "better than Corbyn" accounts for a significant chunk and they'll be watching too.CorrectHorseBattery said:Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.0 -
NorthernPowerhouse said:
James O Brian on LBC, clearly this is a bad result for Boris. Managed to get callers who already regret voting Conservative.
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How many seats did the remain alliance pick up?0
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Cheeky question.wooliedyed said:How many seats did the remain alliance pick up?
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Morning all. Anything interesting going on today?0
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They will prove a poor recruiting ground for the ERG.WhisperingOracle said:
Overall I agree, but as Gallowgate implies the wildcard is how many of the new intake are sufficiently opposed to a softer Brexit.kle4 said:
Remain is dead already. Its whether rejoin gets any traction.WhisperingOracle said:
To that extent I agree with you. Assuming he wins the struggle with the new ERG types who will be part of the new intake, Remain is dead. But perhaps not entirely, if not.Gallowgate said:
Because over 50% of the country still want to be members of the EU?WhisperingOracle said:
Why do you think so ?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
It will depend on what Boris does. A sensible ‘soft Brexit’ i.e. a comprehensive trade deal will probably settle it. However anything else...0 -
Interesting. I tend to think most people will see we have left on 1st Feb and that will be it for a while.WhisperingOracle said:
I suspect there will be big internal struggles to come, even with a big majority, because the Farage spectre is still there for the Tories.NorthernPowerhouse said:
They will also owe their presence to Boris, Boris Boris. They will be loyal.WhisperingOracle said:
As well, a lot of the new intake are going to be broadly sympathetic to the aims of the ERG, certainly much more than the previous intake.Stark_Dawning said:
I suspect the ERG will say: 'We made you, Boris, and we can just as easily destroy you.' The new intake will already be informed that Boris is just a figurehead, here one day and gone the next, and for the good of their long-term futures they need to recognize where the real power lies.kle4 said:
The problem is that they know what they want and Boris does not, many suspect. Most others are loyalists without strong views, so it's easier for the ERG or a strong adviser who does have a vision to have control.glw said:
I really hope you are right, but I fear that the ERG may wield more power than we'd like.RochdalePioneers said:
His massive majority means he can bin off the ERG and now deliver a Brexit that works. Anyone considered this? Johnson isn't stupid. Johnson isn't a headbanger. Johnson looks at all these red wall seats he's won and knows they will abandon him fast if Baker et al insist on a crushing Brexit deal that utterly demolishes places like Don Valley.WhisperingOracle said:Johnson has fairly quick decisions to make. His deal, which is more like Canada than Norway, on its own will have negative consequences for his new manafacturing constituencies in a pretty short space of time. He will have to mitigate this with new policies tailored to those areas to have any hope of retaining this bloc.
So I don't think he will. Farage neutered. ERG neutered. Watch Johnson tack towards sanity now and do a deal that they'll hate.
He's waiting in the wings for the Tories to tack back to a softer Brexit again, as usual.
When leaving doesn't fix anything, a myth may well emerge that it's "because we didn't leave properly" but that's some way off.0 -
Lol
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It can't win under FPTP due to the structural leave bias present in FPTP seatsGallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
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0
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We must call him the honourable Mr Bell now by law.old_labour said:On a personal note, congratulations to Aaron on his success at the general election.
Though I doubt we will see him post again.0 -
Morning Matt! You were partly right, in that Zadrozny did better than I expected.MattW said:
Corbyn is saying his byebyes as leader; his cult are still dominant amongst the membership.
Personally I think they will still have to be dragged out by their short hairs with a bulldozer, be more marginalized, or we need a new centre-left force to be sourced somewhere else.
(Surfaced an hour ago; now upcatching; I owe Nabavi's charity £20. And regret not betting on Davey for LD Leader at 10:1 yesterday)
On the charity, please make the donation to St Mungo's, which I think we'll all agree is a good cause:
https://www.mungos.org/1 -
Can labour avoid splitting? Is there a unity candidate acceptable to the momentum cancer that controls the party? Or do they stick with the hard left and the moderates do a Change UK with time to make it work?0
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That was a major screw up on the part of Plaid Cymru. There is a reason why Nicola Sturgeon is Scotland's FM and Adam Price leads a tiny irrelevant group in Wales. Oh, nice to see the Lib Dems were wiped out in Wales.wooliedyed said:How many seats did the remain alliance pick up?
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Explain? We shall be leaving the UK on 31/1. Do you doubt this? If so, what mechanism?Gallowgate said:
Remain is not defeated. Far from it.houndtang said:If this was scripted you couldn't have written a more complete defeat for socialism and Remain. Unbelievable.
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Do you imagine we might rejoin an EU as it stands now?CorrectHorseBattery said:Remain is defeated - but I do believe within thirty years we will have rejoined.
But for now, I think we accept we did our best to stop it - as is our democratic right - and we were told no. That was their democratic right.
Let Johnson get on with it, own it and if it's a great success I'll say so. If there's no recession I'll say so. But if both things happen, I just fear the poor will get screwed again and the Tories will somehow find a way to blame Labour.
I can't really see that unless somehow the UK's economy falls apart. Happily the chances of the latter situation diminished hugely last night.
Rejoining a substantially reformed EU - more along the lines of the EEC may well be possible though. Or perhaps they'll apply to join the UK
I think Boris is better in some ways than he's perceived. I don't think your worst fears will be realised, not least because he now has a substantial electoral base in places that aren't in such great shape. In my view it's likely we'll have a mini-boom for a couple of quarters somewhere soon - not anything positive from Boris, but just because the uncertainty blocking so many things has partly cleared.
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Disappointed to see the UUP once again a fraction short in Fermanagh1
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BYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!CarlottaVance said:0 -
Oh, just the way she came across. Not despertely likeable. Not as clever as she thought she was. But it is unfair to form a firm personal opinion on someone from how they come across in light-entertainment quiz show.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Cookie, what happened on House of Games?
Mr. Kirk, neither England nor Scotland existed, and the Antonine Wall postdated Hadrian's Wall.
Edited extra bit: missed a word.
0
... Con majority 2024 nailed on. 
