politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t
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little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland2 -
I mean the Jews may not get irony but the Labour party and its supporters don't get the British people and some of them have been living here all their lives.2
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Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
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I think they completely misunderstood what the hypothetical election before oct 31st/election after Oct 31st polling meant.AlastairMeeks said:
They were gifted it. Why Labour and the Lib Dems agreed to an early election will be an enduring mystery. They should have left him dangling.Mimus said:
With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country0 -
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?1
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Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland0 -
He needs to own the EHRC report, when it arrives. Completely culpable.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.Jamei said:McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
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Talk is cheap. Let's see what is actually delivered by BoZo for the people of Grimsby and Stoke.CarlottaVance said:
I have little joy, but reasonable coffers, after my prediction from Wed night being fairly near.Foxy said:I don't think much has changed through the campaign. Foxy's Final prediction.
Con 360
Lab 201
SNP 43
LD 21
PC 4
Green 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
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Yes. But I think he will anyway. So that’s not a barrier. What might save him for now is the absence of any alternative likely to command widespread support.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
He needs to own the EHRC report, when it arrives. Completely culpable.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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It's the celebrities I feel sorry for.3
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I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.0 -
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.0 -
How come SeanT has hacked WilliamGlenn’s account?williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland0 -
haven't they all emigrated yet ?TOPPING said:It's the celebrities I feel sorry for.
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My SCon 1-5 seats bet busted by a single seat. Shower of shite!2
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Bury North majority 105. Anyone seen anything smaller?0
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It’s a Natsy position to be in.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
Pause.
Ah, my coat...
Have a good morning after last night’s shall we say, startling events.2 -
Reading Chick-fil-A outlet to close in LGBT rights rowBrom said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-500945510 -
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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The UK isn’t a nation state.Alanbrooke said:
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.0 -
BETTING POST THANKS
To @Peter_the_Punter for his notice of such good odds for large Cons maj. I did indeed lump on.0 -
My two biggest winning bets: selling the Lib Dems on the spreads and betting against the Brexit party getting any seats. I’d previously closed out at a profit a buy of the Conservatives - left quite a bit on the table though.
Still going through the constituency bets. The most notable thing for me is how the Conservatives squeezed more out of Brexicity from 2017. When you stop and think about it, that’s remarkable.0 -
Yes I think it's the right move. There's certainly no rush, Labour are basically irrelevant and the Cons can do whatever they like in parliament now.Foxy said:
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
Both Lab and LD need to some hard thinking about whether they campaign for rejoin or not.0 -
Listening to the news I doubt he will survive beyond ChristmasFoxy said:
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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Fuck me that Moray result was close.
That's all I need to win my SCon bet. Always hated Douglas Ross.1 -
I didn't say it was, I was talking at the European levelwilliamglenn said:
The UK isn’t a nation state.Alanbrooke said:
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.
more little englandersim from you.
ditch your parochialism and look beyond your parish boundariy0 -
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.0 -
Hope everyone piled on the SNP seat line on Betfair0
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Since when has Corbyn's been a cool head? What next national treasure?Foxy said:
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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It's surely a desire to gerrymander the succession, rather than opening up a debate on future policy direction?AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
Claudia Webbe is an unlikely, yet horrifying, prospect.1 -
Not sure that’s true. He wants to hang around to decide the narrative of this election result and find a placeman to carry on his ‘popular’ policies.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
A huge risk to have him hang around.0 -
Look at how much of what Boris said in 2019 matches what Corbyn said in 2017 on ending austerity, on reversing police cuts, on investing in the NHS. Heck, even Conservatives now say *our* NHS. To that extent, Labour really did win the policy arguments.squareroot2 said:
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.Jamei said:McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
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I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.0 -
Labour had better policies, its just you wouldn't trust them to implement themDecrepiterJohnL said:
Look at how much of what Boris said in 2019 matches what Corbyn said in 2017 on ending austerity, on reversing police cuts, on investing in the NHS. Heck, even Conservatives now say *our* NHS. To that extent, Labour really did win the policy arguments.squareroot2 said:
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.Jamei said:McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
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Yes plus they tried to gild the lily.Alanbrooke said:
Labour had better policies, its just you wouldn't trust them to implement themDecrepiterJohnL said:
Look at how much of what Boris said in 2019 matches what Corbyn said in 2017 on ending austerity, on reversing police cuts, on investing in the NHS. Heck, even Conservatives now say *our* NHS. To that extent, Labour really did win the policy arguments.squareroot2 said:
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.Jamei said:McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
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Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.1
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Though the fundamentals haven't changed. While Parliament now has a Leave majority, the country remains split 50/50 on Brexit. The Remain vote was split too many ways, but the aggregate is still there.rkrkrk said:
Yes I think it's the right move. There's certainly no rush, Labour are basically irrelevant and the Cons can do whatever they like in parliament now.Foxy said:
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
Both Lab and LD need to some hard thinking about whether they campaign for rejoin or not.
LD should go for EEA. Rejoin is not on the cards for a decade or so.0 -
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.SouthamObserver said:Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
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I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
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We moved beyond the nation state some time ago. The EU is just a better model than our version of an imperial union.Alanbrooke said:
I didn't say it was, I was talking at the European levelwilliamglenn said:
The UK isn’t a nation state.Alanbrooke said:
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.
more little englandersim from you.
ditch your parochialism and look beyond your parish boundariy0 -
They just did!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.0 -
Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.0
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Corbyn should stick around for the EHRC findings.Foxy said:
I agree. He should stay while the dust settles and have a new Labour leader in place for the autumn. Good decisions need a cool head.AlastairMeeks said:
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.ydoethur said:I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
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A quick hat tip to Iain Murray, what a guy!SouthamObserver said:
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.0 -
The Reform party need new membersSouthamObserver said:Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
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She was the future, once
https://twitter.com/OliverKamm/status/1205389276130746368?s=202 -
So the big news this morning is that William won his £1,000 bet with Sean?0
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The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.0 -
Austria Hungary 2.0williamglenn said:
We moved beyond the nation state some time ago. The EU is just a better model than our version of an imperial union.Alanbrooke said:
I didn't say it was, I was talking at the European levelwilliamglenn said:
The UK isn’t a nation state.Alanbrooke said:
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.
more little englandersim from you.
ditch your parochialism and look beyond your parish boundariy
similar end to 1,00 -
I hope for the good health of parliamentarians, or else they'll try and sneak Pidders back in at a nifty by-election. Perhaps Jezza could stand down in Islington North?CarlottaVance said:She was the future, once
https://twitter.com/OliverKamm/status/1205389276130746368?s=200 -
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.Foxy said:
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
So trebles all round.0 -
Is that her... endorsing a non-labour candidate?CarlottaVance said:She was the future, once
https://twitter.com/OliverKamm/status/1205389276130746368?s=20
People have been thrown out the party for less.1 -
No Swinson,
What a total unmitigated disaster your leadership was.0 -
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?SouthamObserver said:
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...0 -
Leamington is red!! Most Labour members are not anti-Semitic Marxists. They are good people who allowed themselves to fall into a state of delusion. I can only hope the scale of this entirely predictable defeat shakes them out of it. I worry it won’t, though.TOPPING said:
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.SouthamObserver said:Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
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RLB should pass the threshold, so should Rayner. I think Jess has a good chance too.TOPPING said:
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.Foxy said:
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
So trebles all round.
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.0 -
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
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South Africa 0.5 is a beaten docket this morning. More nationalists than unionists, no help from Alliance even.Alanbrooke said:
Austria Hungary 2.0williamglenn said:
We moved beyond the nation state some time ago. The EU is just a better model than our version of an imperial union.Alanbrooke said:
I didn't say it was, I was talking at the European levelwilliamglenn said:
The UK isn’t a nation state.Alanbrooke said:
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.
more little englandersim from you.
ditch your parochialism and look beyond your parish boundariy
similar end to 1,00 -
Betting Review: Overall quite disappointing personally. Small profit which really should have been more.
Won: Con over 340 seats at evens. This was easy money and should have bet more.
Lost: Con at 45-50% of vote at 8.4. Still think this was a value loser.
Lost: Lab in Chingford.
Lost: Con in Reading East. Should have hedged and taken a guaranteed profit.
Won: Lab seats 200-209, this was post exit poll.
Lost: SNP over 50.5 seats. Not sure why I made this, didn't get good odds.
Won: Brexit on 0-9 seats. Free 12% return.
Won: Lib Dems to get less than 40 seats. Closed out for a profit, but happy with that call.
Won: Chesterfield for Lab at 1.3. Probably a bit lucky with that.
Lost: Lab to win Watford.
Won: Con majority. Got on that 1.53 the day before.
Lost: Cities and Westminster for Lab at 15.5. Silly bet but fancied a longshot
Won: Putney for Lab, but stupidly cashed out early rather than letting it ride.
Won: GE to happen before Brexit.0 -
In Labour women make the tea, they don't lead the party.Foxy said:
RLB should pass the threshold, so should Rayner. I think Jess has a good chance too.TOPPING said:
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.Foxy said:
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
So trebles all round.
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.
#equality0 -
By voting 45-46% for pro-independence parties? By that measure in 2016 the UK voted to remain in the EU.Foxy said:
They just did!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.0 -
To be clear, some Labour members were quite clear about the unfolding disaster and did what they could to improve things.SouthamObserver said:
Leamington is red!! Most Labour members are not anti-Semitic Marxists. They are good people who allowed themselves to fall into a state of delusion. I can only hope the scale of this entirely predictable defeat shakes them out of it. I worry it won’t, though.TOPPING said:
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.SouthamObserver said:Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
0 -
I used to think that, I don't think so now. Johnson's brand of Toryism is not popular there, and the fact that Scottish Labour voters switched more to the SNP (anti-Brexit) rather than the Tories (anti-independence) I think tells you the way things are going. It's certainly not nailed on, there are lots of difficult economic questions to be answered, but the difference in political outlook between Scotland and E&W is just too great to be bridged.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
One could say the same thing about London of course, but the rest of E&W isn't economically viable without London so while I think greater self government for London will come eventually I doubt it will ever become a full on city state.0 -
One important thing which this means. The ghost of Thatcher and the 1980s can finally be left to rest.
When the North votes Tory, then these old arguments about miners and the pits have no traction.1 -
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
2 -
I’d look at Rory for Mayor, what are his odds?0
-
We did - they had an outlet in reading (I think)Brom said:
Then a bunch of self-righteous numpties started tearing up the shopping centre in protest about the owner’s religious beliefs and their lease wasn’t renewed
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.vice.com/amp/en_uk/article/9kem5e/the-uks-first-chick-fil-a-has-announced-its-closure-after-just-eight-days0 -
Totally agreed. Alastair and Foxy are plain wrong on this.Jonathan said:
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
2 -
My guess is Khan will walk re-election.nichomar said:I’d look at Rory for Mayor, what are his odds?
0 -
Not having a good day...
https://twitter.com/seatsixtyone/status/1205397740857024513?s=20
He's left his "Nazi UK" tweet up....0 -
Yes - that is absolutely right.Jonathan said:
To be clear, some Labour members were quite clear about the unfolding disaster and did what they could to improve things.SouthamObserver said:
Leamington is red!! Most Labour members are not anti-Semitic Marxists. They are good people who allowed themselves to fall into a state of delusion. I can only hope the scale of this entirely predictable defeat shakes them out of it. I worry it won’t, though.TOPPING said:
I sincerely hope your time is coming shortly.SouthamObserver said:Very, very sorry for all my good Labour friends. Our party was taken over by the SWP and destroyed. They have gifted the country to the Tories. I would rejoin the party to help it regain its senses, but I think I’m banned.
0 -
Well, let's see what Consett looks like in 5 years time first.Slackbladder said:One important thing which this means. The ghost of Thatcher and the 1980s can finally be left to rest.
When the North votes Tory, then these old arguments about miners and the pits have no traction.0 -
It matters because it means individual TV interviews don't work - there is zero upside and a shed load of downside..BluestBlue said:Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.
This will matter a lot because ... something.0 -
It won't make any difference - the membership will pick the leftist candidate.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
0 -
probably helpful if you could addEPG said:
South Africa 0.5 is a beaten docket this morning. More nationalists than unionists, no help from Alliance even.Alanbrooke said:
Austria Hungary 2.0williamglenn said:
We moved beyond the nation state some time ago. The EU is just a better model than our version of an imperial union.Alanbrooke said:
I didn't say it was, I was talking at the European levelwilliamglenn said:
The UK isn’t a nation state.Alanbrooke said:
European bureaucratic centralism has nothing to offer the nation states.williamglenn said:
Britishness is a narrow nationalism that defines itself against Europe. It has nothing to offer English, Scottish, Welsh or Irish patriots.Alanbrooke said:
little englanderwilliamglenn said:
My country is England. You’re welcome as a fellow European.Alanbrooke said:
my country is the UKwilliamglenn said:
The use of 'the country' as a euphemism for England has to end.Alanbrooke said:So Cummings call it right again
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
yours is Grossdeutschland
The true Europe respects and rejoices in the diversity of its peoples.
more little englandersim from you.
ditch your parochialism and look beyond your parish boundariy
similar end to 1,0
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/northern_ireland
on the other hand SF and DUP going backwards is a good result by any measure.0 -
Broadly agree. Although I suppose the Swinson experience might cool the female criterion slightly.Foxy said:
RLB should pass the threshold, so should Rayner. I think Jess has a good chance too.TOPPING said:
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.Foxy said:
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
So trebles all round.
I would not back any male candidate, the pressure to have a female leader is there, as it was in Swinson vs Davey.0 -
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.CarlottaVance said:
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?SouthamObserver said:
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...
0 -
The unions are key. They will want a winner. It’s not just an ideological crusade for unions. Their nominations give them huge sway.eek said:
It won't make any difference - the membership will pick the leftist candidate.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
0 -
I'm Scottish, I'm not particularly well disposed of towards the SNP, but I'm certain the UK died yesterday.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
45% of the Scottish people voted to leave previously, with a hard brexit and Boris in charge for the next 5 years this will get over the line. Likewise Northern Ireland returned a majority of nationalist MPs for the first time. There will be a border poll and it will be won.
Of course, this means a Tory majority of around 210 in England and Wales. Not sure how long it takes to o we turn that.
0 -
Four election defeats on the spin for Labour against a very poor Conservative party sums it up.
Progressive politics in this country is in despair. Can Labour pull themselves out of the mire? Time will tell as ever....0 -
because the Germans aren't going to fund your 10% spending deficit ?SouthamObserver said:
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.CarlottaVance said:
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?SouthamObserver said:
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...1 -
Nah, the Labour Party needs to be DNR now.Anabobazina said:
Totally agreed. Alastair and Foxy are plain wrong on this.Jonathan said:
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
0 -
The last 4 years aren't very good evidence for your argument.Jonathan said:
The unions are key. They will want a winner. It’s not just an ideological crusade for unions. Their nominations give them huge sway.eek said:
It won't make any difference - the membership will pick the leftist candidate.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
0 -
The SNP prove that it was achievable despite excuses Corbyn and his bubble might pump out in the hours/days to come.murali_s said:Four election defeats on the spin for Labour against a very poor Conservative party sums it up.
Progressive politics in this country is in despair. Can Labour pull themselves out of the mire? Time will tell as ever....0 -
If she had really thought that frustrating Brexit was the top priority, she would have acted otherwise. (Not that I agree that revoking Brexit without at least another referendum would have been right.)OldKingCole said:
Swinson was unlucky in becoming Leader only weeks before a political crisis.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.Mimus said:Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
Politics is brutal.
She was following the recent Lib Dem trend of unprincipled opportunism. I have to say I'm pleased that strategy has backfired. I much preferred the Liberals/Liberal Democrats as a little band campaigning for principles they believed in, rather than a bunch of political chancers saying whatever they thought would be to their short-term advantage.0 -
THe union is dead @Big_G_NorthWales!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
The Conservative Party are the architects of this. Suck it up!0 -
https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1205399950613516288?s=20
He has the seats for the latter...0 -
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1205397581104394241
Stable Door, Bolting and horse gone,comes to mind.0 -
You have not been paying attention. Len is not the unions. The GMB take a different view.Slackbladder said:
The last 4 years aren't very good evidence for your argument.Jonathan said:
The unions are key. They will want a winner. It’s not just an ideological crusade for unions. Their nominations give them huge sway.eek said:
It won't make any difference - the membership will pick the leftist candidate.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
0 -
If there is one thing to learn over recent years, it is that nationalist emotionalism beats reason and economics.Alanbrooke said:
because the Germans aren't going to fund your 10% spending deficit ?SouthamObserver said:
It doesn’t work like that, though, does it? I hope I’m wrong, but putting myself in the shows of a Labour voter in Scotland I’d be asking myself why stay.CarlottaVance said:
And yet people who argue that leaving a 40 year old trading and customs Union will be terribly difficult seem to think that leaving a 300 year old political, fiscal, defence, diplomatic, trading, customs and currency union will be straightforward?SouthamObserver said:
I would not be so sure about that. Many of the remaining Labour voters in Scotland may well wonder why it’s worth staying in the UK.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I am not sure how deep your knowledge is of the Scots but I can confidently predict they will not vote for independenceFoxy said:
The SNP will not be in Westminster next election, they will have their independence. The opposition has to win in a reduced UK of England and Wales.kyf_100 said:
I'm not sure how Labour ever win again so long as the SNP dominate.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.Time_to_Leave said:Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless something changes drastically in England then Labour will likely need to govern in coalition with the SNP in order to win power in five or even ten years' time.
And we all know how the English feel about the SNP in power.
Wait until the complications on the Irish sea emerge...0 -
Mr. Jonathan, I was just about to write something similar.
Labour MPs should throw Corbyn out now, whilst the memory and the pain are still fresh, and the odds are strongest against a far left fool succeeding him.
Mr. S, that does rather neglect that the people of Scotland, of whom the SNP like to speak but to whom they prefer not to listen, voted to stay in the UK in a once-in-a-generation referendum.0 -
And the LDs? Time for a complete rebrand IMO,Foxy said:
Nah, the Labour Party needs to be DNR now.Anabobazina said:
Totally agreed. Alastair and Foxy are plain wrong on this.Jonathan said:
There is a small window where in the heat of this defeat we can remove Corbyns zombie like grip. The cult will try to build the lie that it was just Brexit and they were popular. It is time to move swiftly.Anabobazina said:
They need to do exactly this.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
0 -
Now she says it!Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1205397581104394241
Stable Door, Bolting and horse gone,comes to mind.0 -
Surely Labour can't get to the 30th anniversary of the Tories *booting out* their first woman leader - and another one since - without chalking up one for the supposed party of equality? So I'm surprised to see Starmer quite so out in front in the odds. Name recognition? That said, I hope they also hire someone electable (which is probably also why Starmer is so far out in front).TOPPING said:
I've just backed RLB at 6.2. It's a sort of hedge because Starmer is the favourite so if Lab decide to continue the leftist project I win but then again if they do that they won't win the next election either.Foxy said:
The tricky bit is the nomination thresholds. 10% of MPs shouldn't be too hard, but the CLP and Affiliate (Trade Union) thresholds are more difficult.Jonathan said:Labour MPs can force a leadership election now if Corbyn tries to warp things for his appointed successor. This time Corbyn will not stand.
Apart from anything else, the contest is unlikely to be speedy, Easter at the earliest.
So trebles all round.
I've warmed (or at least thawed) to RLB, but I think Angela Rayner would carry more weight than her. I get they're the next generation and would carry the flame for the Dear Leader. But Cooper and possibly Thornberry should be up there on grounds of greater heft and competence, and even Jess Phillips on the grounds of socking it to the man - she'd soon get back some of the Midlands (ex)marginals and score some points at PMQs.
In any case, I'm not convinced Corbyn's timescale for leaving is at all urgent. Given a choice, I reckon he'd give himself a year plus to groom the nextgen candidates to victory. At the very best he's waiting to see how insistent others are that he buggers off pronto.0 -
To be honest the horse has possibly taken the stable with him..Slackbladder said:https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1205397581104394241
Stable Door, Bolting and horse gone,comes to mind.0
This discussion has been closed.