Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.
They were gifted it. Why Labour and the Lib Dems agreed to an early election will be an enduring mystery. They should have left him dangling.
Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?
Here's a quick review of the only seats they got above 5% in the 2017 election, starting with the ones they did best at in 2017. RA4G = "Remain Alliance, LDs stood down in favour of Greens" and RA4LD = "Remain Alliance, Greens stood down in favour of LDs"
Isle of Wight 15.2% (2017: 17.3%, down 2.1%) going backwards despite RAforG, 3rd place, Tories got 56%
Buckingham didn't stand, RA4LD who didn't win either (was 16.3% in 2017, obviously unusual circumstances vs speaker but even so the Greens gave up a prime seat here)
Bristol West 24.9% (2017: 12.9%, up 12.0%) good 2nd place and added share, but Labour way ahead on 62% and Greens had benefit of RA4G
Sheffield Central 9.0% (2017: 8.0%, up 0.9%) No RA, 3rd place, Labour on 67%
Skipton and Ripon 4.7% (2017: 6.4%, down 1.7%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 59%
North Herefordshire 9.3% (2017: 5.5%, up 3.8% ) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 63%
North East Hertfordshire 4.3% (2017: 5.3%, down 1.1%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 57%
Not really anything to write home about is it? If they'd added 10% on Isle of Wight, got to 27%, that would be interesting as a potential staging post. Went backwards in it. Bristol West they got a solid 2nd place but long way behind Lab.
Man, that is weak. Basically praying that Bristol West works out for them somehow. They didn't do too badly in national vote share either (i.e. not down I think), must have been spread very thin.
In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.
I'd agree with that. Losing your seat and career on such a massive swing is very difficult, she shook hands with her fellow candidates and applauded the winner. The fact that she didn't decide to to perform for the peanut gallery shouldn't be held against her.
Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.
Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.
Cheers. I got that one wrong then. But no money in the game.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
In a sense he's right. When Corbyn first became leader their biggest argument with the conventional wisdom was probably austeriy. They've won that one by and large, but not in a way which has paid electoral dividends. They didn't expect Brexit would come either. The austerity battle is no longer the main one for most voters.
Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.
Cheers. I got that one wrong then. But no money in the game.
I thought a Green vs SNP vs Brexit vote match would have been an interesting market and had to call. As it turns out SNP won fairly cleanly I imagine, and tbh I'd have guessed The Brexit Party to beat the Greens too.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
Bollocks
People will always love the idea of freebies. But they also know that things have to be paid for...
So they lost the Brexit and economic arguments.
Game over
Perhaps, but the Tories campaigned on tax cuts and infrastructure spending and literally said 'Austerity is over' in public appearances. And while Labour were promising much higher spending it didn't seem to do the Tories much harm. The LD's promise of permanent budget surpluses hardly achieved much cut-through.
2017 was a last chance for Labour in their old seats it seems now. People voted for the old familiar on spite of Corbyn and not because of and the more they saw of him the less they liked.
Very depressing, although I suppose the thought of no new Parliamentary election for a while is OK for the country, if sad for those of us who revel in these things. I've got the impression that, in the seats I saw declare anyway, the 'swing' to the Tories wasn't one; more like the Brexit Party took Labour votes. In other words, the old Methodism and Marx alliance which has sustained Labour over the years has broken down, with the Methodists wanting to go back to the past...... Britain alone.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
No. They lost policy.
But ultimately, and to a much greater extent than even I expected, what cut through and damaged Labour was the anti-semitism of its leadership. Although I said eighteen months ago when it first started to gain traction that it would hurt them, I didn’t anticipate it would hurt them this much.
I think the problem was that it gained so much traction it crystallised other doubts - doubts about Corbyn’s integrity, doubts about his basic competence, doubts about his past, doubts about his understanding of politics. Ultimately, throughout this campaign he simply hasn’t been convincing anyone. The benefit of the doubt was gone.
I don’t know whether @Gabs3 will be a bit easier today. I would suggest, not yet. The scandal affects all parties, and far too many ordinary people. But the fact people do care about such things enough to reject them is at least something to hang onto.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
No. They lost policy.
But ultimately, and to a much greater extent than even I expected, what cut through and damaged Labour was the anti-semitism of its leadership. Although I said eighteen months ago when it first started to gain traction that it would hurt them, I didn’t anticipate it would hurt them this much.
I think the problem was that it gained so much traction it crystallised other doubts - doubts about Corbyn’s integrity, doubts about his basic competence, doubts about his past, doubts about his understanding of politics. Ultimately, throughout this campaign he simply hasn’t been convincing anyone. The benefit of the doubt was gone.
I don’t know whether @Gabs3 will be a bit easier today. I would suggest, not yet. The scandal affects all parties, and far too many ordinary people. But the fact people do care about such things enough to reject them is at least something to hang onto.
I suspect you are right that anti-semitism hurt them; it goes against everything that the party stood for, historically.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
The Conservative manifesto says they will reduce the power of the courts and availability of judicial review.
The courts will get to interpret those laws. They have been highly resistant to political attempts to restrict their role in the past. Should be an interesting battle if the government decides to fight it.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Classic Dom.
Apparently he wargamed this.
Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?
The Conservative manifesto says they will reduce the power of the courts and availability of judicial review.
The courts will get to interpret those laws. They have been highly resistant to political attempts to restrict their role in the past. Should be an interesting battle if the government decides to fight it.
I suspect that, initially at any rate, this Government will.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Classic Dom.
Apparently he wargamed this.
Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
Wait for the blog. Mind you it’ll take him a week to deliver 70,000 words.
Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
Politics is brutal.
Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Classic Dom.
Apparently he wargamed this.
Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
Wait for the blog. Mind you it’ll take him a week to deliver 70,000 words.
I sort of imagine he writes the 70k posts in one sitting between 2 and 6 am.
Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
Politics is brutal.
Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
Swinson was unlucky in becoming Leader only weeks before a political crisis.
I think a poll a few days ago had support for independence on 45pc and SNP on 37pc. Or something similar. Looks like the 8pc read their manifesto in the meantime .
Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't (or in case of birkenhead wish labour hadnt) due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)-
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Classic Dom.
Apparently he wargamed this.
Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
In England and Wales, yes.
But it is a very Cummings style victory, in the sense that he has won a short-term victory at the expense of his longer term strategic goals.
Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)
I think one of those wishes as granted. The Tories did not win Birkenhead.
Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)
I think one of those wishes as granted. The Tories did not win Birkenhead.
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.
Classic Dom.
Apparently he wargamed this.
Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.
In England and Wales, yes.
But it is a very Cummings style victory, in the sense that he has won a short-term victory at the expense of his longer term strategic goals.
Um... he's just won a majority which makes it likely the Conservatives will be in power for another decade, and certainly for the next 5 years.
{edit to be concise}
All of his longer-term strategic goals will be helped by a significant majority.
Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
Politics is brutal.
Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
More generally Lab and LD have to learn to work together. Attacking each other just helps the Tories I think.
Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.
This will matter a lot because ... something.
I understand the empty chair thng when somebody is ducking away from a leaders debate but its very arrogant of an intervewer or TV station to think that a leader HAS to be interviewed by them. as though its electoral law or something. Leaders are allowed to manage their own campaign!
Also Andrew Neil is a cynical self important interviewer . Not sure why he is thought of any as good. Prefer Marr and certianly Paxman!
Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.
This will matter a lot because ... something.
I understand the empty chair thng when somebody is ducking away from a leaders debate but its very arrogant of an intervewer or TV station to think that a leader HAS to be interviewed by them. as though its electoral law or something. Leaders are allowed to manage their own campaign!
Also Andrew Neil is a cynical self important interviewer . Not sure why he is thought of any as good. Prefer Marr and certianly Paxman!
Well he’s not going to get Tories to interview this Parliament, which is a shame as I do rate him. Also Channel 4 can presumably look forward to being sold.
Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.
Politics is brutal.
Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.
More generally Lab and LD have to learn to work together. Attacking each other just helps the Tories I think.
Only going to be possible if the Corbynites are ousted.
his consitituency is in London as is the seat of government
Also the north dont like show-offs so probably wise to be grateful for the vote and play down a victory rally by having it in the neutral space of central london
I mean the Jews may not get irony but the Labour party and its supporters don't get the British people and some of them have been living here all their lives.
Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?
Unless there is a DRASTIC change of leader and direction, it does look like 2024 isn't a viable election win, especially given the state of the party in Scotland.
Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country
With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.
They were gifted it. Why Labour and the Lib Dems agreed to an early election will be an enduring mystery. They should have left him dangling.
I think they completely misunderstood what the hypothetical election before oct 31st/election after Oct 31st polling meant.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
He needs to own the EHRC report, when it arrives. Completely culpable.
I think Corbyn is being unrealistic in thinking he can stay on for a bit. After a shellacking like this, surely the NEC will tell him he has to take the fall?
It’s the first good decision he’s made in ages. After a shellacking like this, Labour needs to take stock and not rush. The rush in 2015 was part of the problem that produced Jeremy Corbyn in the first place.
McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.
That's because they were so fecking intransigent in the HOC votes, It was always going to cost them dearly. As for winning the other policy arguments, that's bullshit. The electorate did not believe L:abour's attempt at bribes.
Comments
Delighted to see the SNP on 48 not 55 or 57 or 59 - and 6 Tories, whilst a disaster in one sense is drastically better than it looked at one point.
People will always love the idea of freebies. But they also know that things have to be paid for...
So they lost the Brexit and economic arguments.
Game over
Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.
Lovely.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/829436790763315207?lang=en
I've got the impression that, in the seats I saw declare anyway, the 'swing' to the Tories wasn't one; more like the Brexit Party took Labour votes.
In other words, the old Methodism and Marx alliance which has sustained Labour over the years has broken down, with the Methodists wanting to go back to the past...... Britain alone.
Not bad, lads, not bad!
Classic Dom.
I said the LDs would win Ed West by more the East Dunbartonshire.
Many said I was wrong. I was right.
Politics is brutal.
But ultimately, and to a much greater extent than even I expected, what cut through and damaged Labour was the anti-semitism of its leadership. Although I said eighteen months ago when it first started to gain traction that it would hurt them, I didn’t anticipate it would hurt them this much.
I think the problem was that it gained so much traction it crystallised other doubts - doubts about Corbyn’s integrity, doubts about his basic competence, doubts about his past, doubts about his understanding of politics. Ultimately, throughout this campaign he simply hasn’t been convincing anyone. The benefit of the doubt was gone.
I don’t know whether @Gabs3 will be a bit easier today. I would suggest, not yet. The scandal affects all parties, and far too many ordinary people. But the fact people do care about such things enough to reject them is at least something to hang onto.
Edit: Andrea Leadsom's result has just been announced.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000942
Shame the SNP did so well, but glad it doesn't seem as bad as the exit poll suggested.
I got almost all my bets wrong. Quite a feat. I did have a saver on the Conservatives getting 6-10 in Scotland.
This will matter a lot because ... something.
But it is a very Cummings style victory, in the sense that he has won a short-term victory at the expense of his longer term strategic goals.
https://twitter.com/Plymouth_Live/status/1205355781933150209?s=20
Congrats and well played!
{edit to be concise}
All of his longer-term strategic goals will be helped by a significant majority.
yours is Grossdeutschland
Also Andrew Neil is a cynical self important interviewer . Not sure why he is thought of any as good. Prefer Marr and certianly Paxman!
his consitituency is in London as is the seat of government
I have little joy, but reasonable coffers, after my prediction from Wed night being fairly near.