politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

Tory majority will be 80 if they hold St Ives. Otherwise 78.

paulyork64 said:

Quincel said:

Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

Congrats on ur fantasy team. Top of everyone last time I checked.

Thanks! I thought 200k points was a tough target but virtually everything went right for me.

I checked the rest of the RA4G seats too. When/if the Lib Dems come back I expect Green shares to fall accordingly so the share rises here are probably not so exciting as they first appear.

Bury St Edmunds 15.7% (2017: 4.2%, up 11.5%), 3rd place, Tories 61%

Cannock Chase 6.3% (2017: 1.7%, up 4.6%), 3rd place, Tories 68%

Dulwich & West Norwood 16.5% (2017: 2.5%, up 14.0%), 2nd place, Labour 66%, only just pipped the Tories, nice gain in vote share!

Exeter 8.6% (2017: 1.9%, up 6.8%), 3rd place, Labour got 53%

Forest of Dean 9.1% (2017: 2.5%, up 6.7%), 3rd place, Tories got 60%)

Stroud 7.5% (2017: 2.2%, up 5.3%), 3rd place, Tories 48% and Labour 42%

The results from Dulwich & West Norwood and Bury St Edmunds look encouragingish, but will they hold that share if the LDs come back into things, and in both seats how many heaves will it take when the top-placed party enjoys such vote share? If you only get one election every five years from now on, could be a long time before Greens are seriously in contention in, say, half a dozen seats.And there are seats they'd built up decent positions before where they've slipped back in 2017 and stayed put in 2019 (eg Norwich South was talked up as a seat they might eventually win, got 14%-15% in 2010 and 2015, squeezed out in 2017 and still down in 4th place and sub-5% in 2019).

Alanbrooke said:

So Cummings call it right again

Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.

Mimus said:

Alanbrooke said:

So Cummings call it right again

Lots of people in London talking to each other but having no understanding of the rest of the country

With all the crash and chaos of Boris' first few weeks, they had a strategy worked out. They called the politics right, the public were fed up with a remoaning parliament and have turfed the lot out. Almost every one of the egregious blockers have now gone.

They were gifted it. Why Labour and the Lib Dems agreed to an early election will be an enduring mystery. They should have left him dangling.

MyBurningEars said:

Quincel said:

Did the Greens set up any plausible targets? Any double-digit rises or 20%+ results?

Here's a quick review of the only seats they got above 5% in the 2017 election, starting with the ones they did best at in 2017. RA4G = "Remain Alliance, LDs stood down in favour of Greens" and RA4LD = "Remain Alliance, Greens stood down in favour of LDs"

Isle of Wight 15.2% (2017: 17.3%, down 2.1%) going backwards despite RAforG, 3rd place, Tories got 56%

Buckingham didn't stand, RA4LD who didn't win either (was 16.3% in 2017, obviously unusual circumstances vs speaker but even so the Greens gave up a prime seat here)

Bristol West 24.9% (2017: 12.9%, up 12.0%) good 2nd place and added share, but Labour way ahead on 62% and Greens had benefit of RA4G

Sheffield Central 9.0% (2017: 8.0%, up 0.9%) No RA, 3rd place, Labour on 67%

Skipton and Ripon 4.7% (2017: 6.4%, down 1.7%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 59%

North Herefordshire 9.3% (2017: 5.5%, up 3.8% ) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 63%

North East Hertfordshire 4.3% (2017: 5.3%, down 1.1%) No RA, 4th place, Tories on 57%

Not really anything to write home about is it? If they'd added 10% on Isle of Wight, got to 27%, that would be interesting as a potential staging post. Went backwards in it. Bristol West they got a solid 2nd place but long way behind Lab.

Man, that is weak. Basically praying that Bristol West works out for them somehow. They didn't do too badly in national vote share either (i.e. not down I think), must have been spread very thin.

Couple of hours kip.

Delighted to see the SNP on 48 not 55 or 57 or 59 - and 6 Tories, whilst a disaster in one sense is drastically better than it looked at one point.

CarlottaVance said:

Artist said:

Pidcock footage finally out.

https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1205373793167986694

In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.

Dent Coad was a crank, like Williamson. Drink on her own power and convinced of her moral right to rule, so defeat was always going to rankle.

CarlottaVance said:

Artist said:

Pidcock footage finally out.

https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1205373793167986694

In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.

I'd agree with that. Losing your seat and career on such a massive swing is very difficult, she shook hands with her fellow candidates and applauded the winner. The fact that she didn't decide to to perform for the peanut gallery shouldn't be held against her.

Jamei said:

McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

Bollocks

People will always love the idea of freebies. But they also know that things have to be paid for...

So they lost the Brexit and economic arguments.

Game over

CarlottaVance said:

Artist said:

Pidcock footage finally out.

https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1205373793167986694

In fairness Pidcock did have the good grace to applaud and shake hands - unlike Dent Toad.

Not only graceless. The failure to speak is a mark of their cowardly nature. The contrast with Jo Swinson speaks volumes.

paulyork64 said:

Quincel said:

paulyork64 said:

Hows the BXP v Green vote share contest looking?

Greens have won, at least according to an Aaron Bastani tweet I saw quoting a Green press release. I don't think he literally made it up, but possible.

Cheers. I got that one wrong then. But no money in the game.

I thought a Green vs SNP vs Brexit vote match would have been an interesting market and had to call. As it turns out SNP won fairly cleanly I imagine, and tbh I'd have guessed The Brexit Party to beat the Greens too.

oxfordsimon said:

Jamei said:

McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

Bollocks

People will always love the idea of freebies. But they also know that things have to be paid for...

So they lost the Brexit and economic arguments.

Game over

Perhaps, but the Tories campaigned on tax cuts and infrastructure spending and literally said 'Austerity is over' in public appearances. And while Labour were promising much higher spending it didn't seem to do the Tories much harm. The LD's promise of permanent budget surpluses hardly achieved much cut-through.

Fantastic news to wake up to - Pidcock has lost her seat. Leamington and Warwick has re-elected Matt Western.

So a somewhat sub-optimal result for Remain then?

GIN1138 said:

So a somewhat sub-optimal result for Remain then?

"The real fight starts now", as they say.

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/829436790763315207?lang=en

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

An incredible hangover cure.

Next time we'll be talking swingback and focusing on the penultimate MRP

nunu2 said:

Aaron!

Artist said:

Pidcock footage finally out.

https://twitter.com/itvtynetees/status/1205373793167986694

That was an altogether more impressive speech than Pidcock’s maiden effort.

So, if we count St. Ives as likely lost to the LDs, the Tory majority will be 78, and effectively 83 when accounting for Sinn Fein and speakers.

Not bad, lads, not bad!

not_on_fire said:

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?

Get with the programme, grandad. You’re supposed to celebrate the silencing of dissenting voices and those seeking to protect constitutional order.

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

Classic Dom.

https://twitter.com/duncanrobinson/status/1205380754118721536?s=20

not_on_fire said:

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?

The Conservative manifesto says they will reduce the power of the courts and availability of judicial review.

SouthamObserver said:

Fantastic news to wake up to - Pidcock has lost her seat. Leamington and Warwick has re-elected Matt Western.

Here's another bit of good news, I owe you £25 from a bet. DM to discuss payment method?

Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

Politics is brutal.

Why's it taking them so long to count the votes in the two safe Tory seats of Arundel and South Northants?

Edit: Andrea Leadsom's result has just been announced.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000942

ydoethur said:

Jamei said:

McDonnell saying they won the policy arguments but couldn't quite win the Brexit argument.

No. They lost policy.

But ultimately, and to a much greater extent than even I expected, what cut through and damaged Labour was the anti-semitism of its leadership. Although I said eighteen months ago when it first started to gain traction that it would hurt them, I didn’t anticipate it would hurt them this much.

I think the problem was that it gained so much traction it crystallised other doubts - doubts about Corbyn’s integrity, doubts about his basic competence, doubts about his past, doubts about his understanding of politics. Ultimately, throughout this campaign he simply hasn’t been convincing anyone. The benefit of the doubt was gone.

I don’t know whether @Gabs3 will be a bit easier today. I would suggest, not yet. The scandal affects all parties, and far too many ordinary people. But the fact people do care about such things enough to reject them is at least something to hang onto.

I suspect you are right that anti-semitism hurt them; it goes against everything that the party stood for, historically.

not_on_fire said:

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

Why exactly does this result prevent any court cases taking place?

because realistically a clear majority can pass any law it wants

Time_to_Leave said:

Brom said:

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

Classic Dom.

Apparently he wargamed this.

Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.

Good morning, everyone.

Shame the SNP did so well, but glad it doesn't seem as bad as the exit poll suggested.

I got almost all my bets wrong. Quite a feat. I did have a saver on the Conservatives getting 6-10 in Scotland.

rkrkrk said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Brom said:

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

Classic Dom.

Apparently he wargamed this.

Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.

Wait for the blog. Mind you it’ll take him a week to deliver 70,000 words.

Mimus said:

Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

Politics is brutal.

Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.

https://twitter.com/francesweetman/status/1205382021155053570?s=20

Important reminder: the Andrew Neil chair tweet now has 7.5 million views.

This will matter a lot because ... something.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mimus said:

Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

Politics is brutal.

Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.

Swinson was unlucky in becoming Leader only weeks before a political crisis.

HYUFD said:

Boris makes his victory speech in central London

A new dusk has broken.

state_go_away said:

Whats the smallest majority (in terms of vote numbers )?

Smallest I saw were a couple around 150 (including Swinson loss), must be some smaller...

state_go_away said:

Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)

I think one of those wishes as granted. The Tories did not win Birkenhead.

Missed this earlier:

https://twitter.com/Plymouth_Live/status/1205355781933150209?s=20

ydoethur said:

state_go_away said:

Glad the tories won obviously but in 3 seats i wish they hadn't due to other better candidates - Finchley , Ashfield (the indie) and Birkenhead (Frank Field)

I think one of those wishes as granted. The Tories did not win Birkenhead.

its been a long night!

ydoethur said:

rkrkrk said:

Time_to_Leave said:

Brom said:

ozymandias said:

No more Gauke. Grieve. Soubry. Bercow. Letwin.

Miller. Spurious court cases. Legal challenges. Self important lawyers thinking they’re so clever. Farting about.

Lovely.

It couldn’t have gone much better. All the months of obstruction from Bercow, the rebels and the opposition, the snobbery and superiority of the people’s vote bullshit and the threat of an anti semetic far left government has been eradicated overnight.

Classic Dom.

Apparently he wargamed this.

Massive triumph for him personally. His strategy seems to have gone perfectly.

In England and Wales, yes.

But it is a very Cummings style victory, in the sense that he has won a short-term victory at the expense of his longer term strategic goals.

Um... he's just won a majority which makes it likely the Conservatives will be in power for another decade, and certainly for the next 5 years.

{edit to be concise}

All of his longer-term strategic goals will be helped by a significant majority.

WhisperingOracle said:

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/1205387735357411329

He's going to need to learn fast.

Why? From this point he can do pretty much as he pleases.

Just looking at those numbers, and assuming we now do see new boundaries, it’s a massive task for Labour next time isn’t it?

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mimus said:

Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

Politics is brutal.

Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.

More generally Lab and LD have to learn to work together. Attacking each other just helps the Tories I think.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1205390170155102208?s=20

SouthamObserver said:

https://twitter.com/jenwilliamsmen/status/1205387735357411329

wanker of a quote

his consitituency is in London as is the seat of government

Boris arrives back in No 10 with Carrie with the biggest majority since Blair and as the most powerful Tory PM since Thatcher

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205390737652813825?s=20

rkrkrk said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mimus said:

Still shocked by the Swinson defeat, she made the wrong call on Brexit, but I thought she was the bravest and most open leader in this election, even likeable and sympathetic in character by comparison. Yet she still got humiliated by her own constituency.

Politics is brutal.

Swinson made the wrong call on Brexit, the wrong call on working with Labour, and even the wrong call, according to some, on her wardrobe. The LibDems need to learn from this and ensure their next leader spends their first couple of days locked in a room with the great and the good to determine positioning on all foreseeable questions, rather than getting locked into the first thing that pops into the leader's head when faced with a microphone.

More generally Lab and LD have to learn to work together. Attacking each other just helps the Tories I think.

Only going to be possible if the Corbynites are ousted.