politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s quitting but not quite yet as Blair’s old seat goes t

Ugh.

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

Grieve officially gone

Jamei said:

Labour hold Cambridge easily

The Labour Party has held on well in its student heavy heartlands. It's in the real world they're struggling.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Brom said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

More bitter than Jezza....

https://twitter.com/centrist_phone/status/1205262038945140736

Complete idiot, not sure if he posts on ukpolling but he just sets out to mislead and get lucky. Sucked a lot of fools in.

He had a rather nasty meltdown one night. The mask slipped, a bit like Jezza.

I’m enjoying some of the meltdowns. Tonight feels like a weight lifted off my shoulders. Don’t even care most of my bets lost!

The only disappointment is I put in all this work on this live data stuff, expecting it to be close and lots of betting opportunities.

It is brilliant work. Thank you for it. Something unexpected may yet turn up in it too.

humbugger said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Grieve officially gone

Best result of the night.

Can this night get any better. 😄

A number of commentators had called Laura Pidcock a future leader of the Labour Party.

But she has lost her seat of Durham North West to the Conservatives.

In 2017, her majority was over 8,000.

But in 2019, the Tory candidate, Rochard Holden, won the vote by 1,144.

BBC

Shrewsbury and Atcham Con hold

Dumfries stays blue. How many is that in Scotland now?

Shame Cooper hung on

Sky new forecast 363-369 Tory, 193-199 Lab.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Yvette Cooper back. At least there will be some adults in the room.

Until the next election where the Brexit party would not split the Conservative vote.

Cooper lost 20% of the vote....

Broxtowe:

Con 26,602
Lab 21,271
Soubry 4,668
Grn 1,806
ED 432
Ind 321
Elvis 172

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000607

CarlottaVance said:

10 point swing...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205333589828808706?s=20

Favourite result so far, that one!

Richard_Tyndall said:

Dumfries stays blue. How many is that in Scotland now?

They could hold up to 6.

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

On a human level I suppose we should feel sorry for Conservatives losing their seats even in a tide of bluewash. How rubbish must they be feeling?

Dumfries and Galloway Con hold from SNP

speedy2 said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Yvette Cooper back. At least there will be some adults in the room.

Until the next election where the Brexit party would not split the Conservative vote.

The next election will be in 4 or 5 years time. don't expect the Labour vote to be quite so depressed next time around

Birmingham Northfield goes blue

Sturgeon celebrates Jo Swinson's defeat.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1205335510618705921

Cons gain Birmingham Northfield

Sturgeon seems strangely chipper on the night of a big Tory majority.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

Errrr it may have gone LD on UNS when the LDs were up 10% and Tories down by that much . . . but surely on UNS in the night it wasn't LD?

As far as I can see UNS swing is below 1%

You're right. The LDs are up 4.4% in England, while the Conservatives are 1.9%, so it would not have gone LD on UNS.

Where do ICM go from here?

Beaconsfield Con hold, Grieve defeated

DecrepiterJohnL said:

rcs1000 said:

PaulM said:

rcs1000 said:

https://twitter.com/bbcelection/status/1205334335508959233/photo/1

Congratulations to Alastair Meeks on winning our bet. Let me know which charity you would like me to donate to.

To be fair, it had the four factors in spades:

1. Went LD on UNS
2. Voted significantly Remain
3. LDs had really good local election results
4. There was a Labour vote to squeeze

Outside Scotland, that's been a pretty good guide to LD successes and failures.

On a human level I suppose we should feel sorry for Conservatives losing their seats even in a tide of bluewash. How rubbish must they be feeling?

Or indeed, the former SNP MP for NE Fife.

Tezza on BBC

MikeL said:

RLB: Detailed analysis required!

LOL - looks pretty obvious to me.

RLB in trouble?

Brom said:

Shame Cooper hung on

Good night all: I think I can safely go to bed now without worrying about any nasty surprises when I wake up.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1205336987982581760?s=20

Oh give over Layla! Quite right for Sturgeon to celebrate a win for her party.

If in an alternate world the LDs had swept the country and taken Uxbridge do you think for one second that Swinson wouldn't have celebrated?

Artist said:

Sturgeon seems strangely chipper on the night of a big Tory majority.

One step closer to an independent Scotland.

spudgfsh said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Gabs3 said:

speedy2 said:

So who is going to be next LD leader?

Ed Davey is deputy.

Layla Moran more likely

I don't think so. Ed Davey is deputy so gets the post for now. Lets see how things go over the next months before deciding. There is no hurry and Davey is a strong performer.

Pity, I quite liked Jo, but she was a bit too inexperienced.

To be honest, it had to be Jo last time. I hate this fact but the Lib Dems had to vote for a female leader. Now it's been done (and Labour will have the same issue by the way) the next leader can be voted for on their merits and not just because of their gender.

I agree, but I also think that any LD associated with the Coalition* is going to struggle with Left wing voters. I am happy for Ed Davey to continue for some time so that we can judge the newcomers.

*Tim always kept his distance, and Ed is quite robust on what was achieved in Coalition. Jo was too apologetic about what was the best government since Blairs first term.

Andy_JS said:

Warwick & Leamington has stayed Labour.

Bloody students....

RandallFlagg said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Artist said:

Scottish Labour couldn't even beat a discarded anti semite with no official party support.

They couldn't beat a tambourine, they are utterly bloody useless.

Leonard surely toast, right?

He says he isn't going. I mean, who would replace him, look at the state of the SLab MSPs?

numbertwelve said:

Tezza on BBC

She is showing far more loyalty to Johnson than he ever did to her.

humbugger said:

Ashfield goes blue.

Betting against independents has worked for me.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Brom said:

Shame Cooper hung on

Good night all: I think I can safely go to bed now without worrying about any nasty surprises when I wake up.

The result won't be a surprise, if that is what you mean. Nastiness can't be ruled out.

Con hold Wimbledon by a whisker

I'm in a weirdly safe Tory seat now

Lancaster and Fleetwood Labour hold, Cat Deeley back

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205339602694922240?s=20

numbertwelve said:

SDLP GAIN FOYLE

From Sinn Fein

All this tactical voting... for naught.

KentRising said:

Tories have at least THREE Scottish seats.

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1205338583416086528

What's the latest panda number?

HYUFD said:

Lancaster and Fleetwood Labour hold, Cat Deeley back

Shame.