politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s ma
Comments
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The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.8
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Yes, what I felt on the ground todaybrokenwheel said:1 -
The BBC is missing Dimbleby.
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Hahaha. What the f**k do I know.RobD said:
73.3% in both 2010 and 2015, weirdly enough, and 73.6% in 2017.El_Capitano said:Turnout in Witney is 74%. Never known anything like that.
Nicky Morgan is on the BBC now. I may open a fifth bottle to numb the pain.0 -
Workington!0
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SLab concede in East Lothian.0
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Workington Man has spoken.0
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Bloody hell0
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Workington Con 20488 Lab 163120
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Workington Man!0
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Free broadband?tyson said:
How Casino?Casino_Royale said:
Yes, he needs to deliver.WhisperingOracle said:Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
Seriously, these are places which globalisation is leaving behind....they are on a one way ticket to Pallookaville1 -
Flat Fred has definitely come out for the Tories.....20k in Workington.1
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That is some swing.0
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Not even close!!0
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CON gain Workington0
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Workington:
Con 20,488
Lab 16,312
BRX 1,749
LD 1,525
Grn 596
Ind 842
Ind 870 -
Tories gain Workington with a 4,000 majority.0
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The Red Wall is crumbling by the minute.0
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It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.Winstanley said:
I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.Jonathan said:
Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.Winstanley said:
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.2 -
A great swathe.....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205296852444307457?s=200 -
Cons would have won Workington without Brexit Party.0
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Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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And yet Momentum threw huge resources at it, and wasted it.KentRising said:
So talk of Labour leaving town this afternoon was because they realised it was a no-go, not because they thought it was job done.brokenwheel said:4 -
Workington Tories gain the seat
Tories 20 488
Labour 163120 -
Jimmy Carr is now running C4's election coverage.0
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They can't help themselves.Slackbladder said:
And yet Momentum threw huge resources at it, and wasted it.KentRising said:
So talk of Labour leaving town this afternoon was because they realised it was a no-go, not because they thought it was job done.brokenwheel said:1 -
Well said!SouthamObserver said:The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.
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WORKINGTON!0
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Northern Ireland Update.
Fermanagh And South Tyrone : This is expected to be very tight between Sinn Fein and U.U.P.0 -
Workington con gain. Omg. He was public enemy number one five months ago. Wow.0
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First Scottish result on ITV
Big for the SNP - gain Rutherglen from Labour0 -
Holy shit .... it really is going to be bad for the Marxists0
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Quite so. It's odd. I'm very relieved that Corbyn didn't win, yet underwhelmed. The results from Scotland are not good, and there will be a lot of people very pissed off by this outcome.SouthamObserver said:The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.
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Careful. The Stalinists and Trots who run the party are very capable of portraying the disaster as due to Corbyn personally, and therefore not due to any shortcoming in the ideology. It's not just Corbyn you need to get rid of, it's all those behind him.Jonathan said:
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
I wish you luck, but they have the levers of power in the party.1 -
Yes, respect to you allFoxy said:
Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
I anticipated a Tory maj of 20-40. This is well in excess0 -
I have no sympathy for the Labour MPs losing their Leave seats.
They failed to represent their constituents.1 -
If labour a losing seats where they have held for 97 of the last 101 years they are in serious trouble. The tories must be really outperforming the exit poll1
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SNP walk it in Rutherglen.0
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Get the fucking ridJonathan said:
It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.Winstanley said:
I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.Jonathan said:
Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.Winstanley said:
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.1 -
Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.0
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9.7% swing in Workington
Edit: 9.8%. Even better.0 -
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I thought you were a Corbynite - my apologiesJonathan said:
It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.Winstanley said:
I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.Jonathan said:
Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.Winstanley said:
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.0 -
The Scottish results ruin most of it for me.Sean_F said:
Quite so. It's odd. I'm very relieved that Corbyn didn't win, yet underwhelmed. The results from Scotland are not good, and there will be a lot of people very pissed off by this outcome.SouthamObserver said:The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.
I am a Unionist.0 -
SNP vote in Rutherglen and Hamilton West is still 6,500 down on 2015.0
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As one would expect. Often, under 100.TheGreenMachine said:Northern Ireland Update.
Fermanagh And South Tyrone : This is expected to be very tight between Sinn Fein and U.U.P.0 -
Rutherglen Lab 18545 SNP 237750
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Rutherglen and Hamilton West:
SNP 23,775
Lab 18,545
UKIP 629
SLD 2,791
Con 8,054
SNP GAIN
Swing: 5.1% from Lab to SNP0 -
He's already gone effectively, the question is the successor.Byronic said:
Get the fucking ridJonathan said:
It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.Winstanley said:
I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.Jonathan said:
Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.Winstanley said:
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)Jonathan said:
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.Pulpstar said:
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remainbeentheredonethat said:The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.0 -
Rutherglen:
SNP 23,775
Lab 18,545
Con 8,054
LD 2,791
UKIP 6290 -
A bulldozer has gone through itralphmalph said:The Red Wall is crumbling by the minute.
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SNP win Rutherglen0
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The unions are the key. Do they want Labour in power or not? When push comes to shove, the unions are pretty pragmatic.Richard_Nabavi said:
Careful. The Stalinists and Trots who run the party are very capable of portraying the disaster as due to Corbyn personally, and therefore not due to any shortcoming in the ideology. It's not just Corbyn you need to get rid of, it's all those behind him.Jonathan said:
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
I wish you luck, but they have the levers of power in the party.
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Nothing magic, I just believed the polls!Byronic said:
Yes, respect to you allFoxy said:
Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
I anticipated a Tory maj of 20-40. This is well in excess0 -
NEW THREAD
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I couldn't agree with you more.SouthamObserver said:The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.
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“students + ethnic minorities” makes no sense. Lazy thinkingCarlottaVance said:0 -
Not even close fucking hellnumbertwelve said:0 -
Some of us kept the faith... 😎MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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That's a shame. Of all the LAB MPs, I'd have loved for Ruth to have kept her seat as the Jew-baiters who taunted her at that press conference saw their champions fall.CarlottaVance said:A great swathe.....
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205296852444307457?s=200 -
Swing to SNP smaller than the exit poll though0
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Con gain Darlington0
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MRP underestimating SNP support by approx 6 points.0
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Darlington!0
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I see ITV are recalculating the exit poll - now slightly down to 366 for the Tories and 193 for Labour.
So Labour must be doing slightly, tinily, better than the exit poll (or Tories not quite as well by a smidge)0 -
Mysteriously many of the Tories who kept the faith nevertheless have trousers to wash tomorrow.RobinWiggs said:
Some of us kept the faith... 😎MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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The first Scottish seat would give:
SNP 53
CON 3
LD 1
LAB 1
The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.0 -
yes. thanks!IanB2 said:ITV has 21 declarations and the BBC just 14
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Darlington:
Con 20,901
Lab 17,6070 -
You see that Red Wall.
Don't you mean that Blue Wall0 -
I said it. I bet on it. Twice! I've spent the past 24hrs reassuring PB Tories that their fears were meaningless. Like, hello?MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0bcRCCg01Iralphmalph said:The Red Wall is crumbling by the minute.
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It was explained on Sky, it is the late voters who were polled after 2100vbeing added in, not responding to actual results.Bob__Sykes said:I see ITV are recalculating the exit poll - now slightly down to 366 for the Tories and 193 for Labour.
So Labour must be doing slightly, tinily, better than the exit poll (or Tories not quite as well by a smidge)0 -
This is on a par with 1997 and 19790
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North East seems to be understating Tory swing as BP are mopping up the Labour defections. Swindon and Nuneaton suggest where the transfers are direct the swing is even bigger0
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Byronic said:
Yes, respect to you allFoxy said:
Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
I anticipated a Tory maj of 20-40. This is well in excess
Cough!Foxy said:
Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.MarqueeMark said:How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
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In principle, yes, but not so much in the last few years.Jonathan said:
The unions are the key. Do they want Labour in power or not? When push comes to shove, the unions are pretty pragmatic.Richard_Nabavi said:
Careful. The Stalinists and Trots who run the party are very capable of portraying the disaster as due to Corbyn personally, and therefore not due to any shortcoming in the ideology. It's not just Corbyn you need to get rid of, it's all those behind him.Jonathan said:
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
I wish you luck, but they have the levers of power in the party.0 -
What are the three Scottish Conservative seats?speedy2 said:The first Scottish seat would give:
SNP 53
CON 3
LD 1
LAB 1
The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.0 -
When will we have our first southern seat?0
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I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.ydoethur said:Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.
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Alan Johnson on ITV being a truth speakerdr_spyn said:Livingstone being a bloody fool.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1205298593315377157
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... and why does it take so long to count seats in the south?El_Capitano said:When will we have our first southern seat?
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Heidi Allen=definition of face like a smacked arse0
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Presumably it would be the 3 border seats - Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfriesshire Clydesdale etc and Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk?Casino_Royale said:
What are the three Scottish Conservative seats?speedy2 said:The first Scottish seat would give:
SNP 53
CON 3
LD 1
LAB 1
The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.0 -
I'm fairly sure the Jewish vote wasn't helpful to Labourdr_spyn said:Livingstone being a bloody fool.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/12052985933153771570 -
Do you want to post a selfie so we can compare?beentheredonethat said:Heidi Allen=definition of face like a smacked arse
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Swindon North is in the south...El_Capitano said:When will we have our first southern seat?
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SNP gain Gordon now in to 10/11 (bet365)Bob__Sykes said:
Presumably it would be the 3 border seats - Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfriesshire Clydesdale etc and Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk?Casino_Royale said:
What are the three Scottish Conservative seats?speedy2 said:The first Scottish seat would give:
SNP 53
CON 3
LD 1
LAB 1
The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.0 -
Alan Johnson Bloody hell, what a loss.0
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We prefer to think it isn't. It isn't even in Wiltshire any morebrokenwheel said:
Swindon North is in the south...El_Capitano said:When will we have our first southern seat?
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