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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s ma

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
  • The BBC is missing Dimbleby.

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    RobD said:

    Turnout in Witney is 74%. Never known anything like that.

    73.3% in both 2010 and 2015, weirdly enough, and 73.6% in 2017.
    Hahaha. What the f**k do I know.

    Nicky Morgan is on the BBC now. I may open a fifth bottle to numb the pain.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Workington!
  • SLab concede in East Lothian.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Andy_JS said:

    Broxbourne:

    Con 30,631
    Lab 10,824
    LD 3,970
    Grn 1,281

    Con +3.4%
    Lab -5.7%
    LD +5.4%
    Grn +1.0%

    A 4.5% swing even in London suburbs.
  • Workington Man has spoken.
  • Bloody hell
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Workington Con 20488 Lab 16312
  • Workington Man!
  • tyson said:

    Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.

    Yes, he needs to deliver.
    How Casino?
    Seriously, these are places which globalisation is leaving behind....they are on a one way ticket to Pallookaville
    Free broadband?
  • Flat Fred has definitely come out for the Tories.....20k in Workington.
  • That is some swing.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Not even close!!
  • CON gain Workington
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Workington:

    Con 20,488
    Lab 16,312
    BRX 1,749
    LD 1,525
    Grn 596
    Ind 842
    Ind 87
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Tories gain Workington with a 4,000 majority.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    speedy2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Broxbourne:

    Con 30,631
    Lab 10,824
    LD 3,970
    Grn 1,281

    Con +3.4%
    Lab -5.7%
    LD +5.4%
    Grn +1.0%

    A 4.5% swing even in London suburbs.
    Broxbourne solid Tory and Leaver.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    The Red Wall is crumbling by the minute.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.

    Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remain
    SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.
    Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)
    Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.
    Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.

    I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
    I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.
    It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.

    Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Cons would have won Workington without Brexit Party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.
  • So talk of Labour leaving town this afternoon was because they realised it was a no-go, not because they thought it was job done.
    And yet Momentum threw huge resources at it, and wasted it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Workington Tories gain the seat

    Tories 20 488

    Labour 16312
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Jimmy Carr is now running C4's election coverage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    So talk of Labour leaving town this afternoon was because they realised it was a no-go, not because they thought it was job done.
    And yet Momentum threw huge resources at it, and wasted it.
    They can't help themselves.
  • The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.

    Well said!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    WORKINGTON!
  • Northern Ireland Update.

    Fermanagh And South Tyrone : This is expected to be very tight between Sinn Fein and U.U.P.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    edited December 2019
    Workington con gain. Omg. He was public enemy number one five months ago. Wow.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited December 2019
    First Scottish result on ITV

    Big for the SNP - gain Rutherglen from Labour
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Holy shit .... it really is going to be bad for the Marxists
  • Jonathan said:


    This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.

    Careful. The Stalinists and Trots who run the party are very capable of portraying the disaster as due to Corbyn personally, and therefore not due to any shortcoming in the ideology. It's not just Corbyn you need to get rid of, it's all those behind him.

    I wish you luck, but they have the levers of power in the party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.

    Quite so. It's odd. I'm very relieved that Corbyn didn't win, yet underwhelmed. The results from Scotland are not good, and there will be a lot of people very pissed off by this outcome.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    speedy2 said:

    After 14 results, swing is still 7.5%

    Leave average of declared seats is 58% so far, if I can add up right.

    Even in 48% leave Newc Central there was still a 3.75% swing though.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Foxy said:

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.
    Yes, respect to you all

    I anticipated a Tory maj of 20-40. This is well in excess
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    I have no sympathy for the Labour MPs losing their Leave seats.

    They failed to represent their constituents.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,494
    If labour a losing seats where they have held for 97 of the last 101 years they are in serious trouble. The tories must be really outperforming the exit poll
  • SNP walk it in Rutherglen.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.

    Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remain
    SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.
    Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)
    Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.
    Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.

    I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
    I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.
    It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.

    Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.
    Get the fucking rid
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    edited December 2019
    9.7% swing in Workington
    Edit: 9.8%. Even better.
  • HYUFD said:

    Workington Tories gain the seat

    Tories 20 488

    Labour 16312

    A 4,000 majority.

    FOUR THOUSAND.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.

    Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remain
    SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.
    Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)
    Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.
    Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.

    I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
    I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.
    It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.

    Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.
    I thought you were a Corbynite - my apologies
  • Sean_F said:

    The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.

    Quite so. It's odd. I'm very relieved that Corbyn didn't win, yet underwhelmed. The results from Scotland are not good, and there will be a lot of people very pissed off by this outcome.
    The Scottish results ruin most of it for me.

    I am a Unionist.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    SNP vote in Rutherglen and Hamilton West is still 6,500 down on 2015.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Northern Ireland Update.

    Fermanagh And South Tyrone : This is expected to be very tight between Sinn Fein and U.U.P.

    As one would expect. Often, under 100.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Rutherglen Lab 18545 SNP 23775
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited December 2019
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West:
    SNP 23,775
    Lab 18,545
    UKIP 629
    SLD 2,791
    Con 8,054

    SNP GAIN

    Swing: 5.1% from Lab to SNP
  • Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.

    Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remain
    SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.
    Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)
    Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats.
    Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.

    I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
    I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.
    It looks like Labour will lose votes in Scotland to the SNP, just like it's losing them everywhere else.

    Wake up, this is a total catastrophe for Labour. There is nothing good here. This has happened on Corbyn's watch, he is responsible.
    Get the fucking rid
    He's already gone effectively, the question is the successor.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Rutherglen:

    SNP 23,775
    Lab 18,545
    Con 8,054
    LD 2,791
    UKIP 629
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The Red Wall is crumbling by the minute.

    A bulldozer has gone through it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    SNP win Rutherglen
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    Jonathan said:


    This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.

    Careful. The Stalinists and Trots who run the party are very capable of portraying the disaster as due to Corbyn personally, and therefore not due to any shortcoming in the ideology. It's not just Corbyn you need to get rid of, it's all those behind him.

    I wish you luck, but they have the levers of power in the party.
    The unions are the key. Do they want Labour in power or not? When push comes to shove, the unions are pretty pragmatic.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.
    Yes, respect to you all

    I anticipated a Tory maj of 20-40. This is well in excess
    Nothing magic, I just believed the polls!
  • NEW THREAD

  • The contempt I feel for Nick Palmer and the rest of the self-indulgent Labour membership that enabled the absolute disaster of Corbynism is nothing compared to the verdict the British electorate has delivered. Never has a defeat been more deserved. Now we can only hope that Tories who said Brexit was about freedom, accountability and scrutiny actually meant it. They will need to hold a PM who believes in none of the three to account. Move beyond partisanship my Tory friends. Think of our country.

    I couldn't agree with you more.
  • HYUFD said:

    Workington Tories gain the seat

    Tories 20 488

    Labour 16312

    A 4,000 majority.

    FOUR THOUSAND.
    Not even close fucking hell
  • How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us kept the faith... 😎

  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    That's a shame. Of all the LAB MPs, I'd have loved for Ruth to have kept her seat as the Jew-baiters who taunted her at that press conference saw their champions fall.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited December 2019
    Swing to SNP smaller than the exit poll though
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Con gain Darlington
  • MRP underestimating SNP support by approx 6 points.
  • Darlington!
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    I see ITV are recalculating the exit poll - now slightly down to 366 for the Tories and 193 for Labour.

    So Labour must be doing slightly, tinily, better than the exit poll (or Tories not quite as well by a smidge)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us kept the faith... 😎

    Mysteriously many of the Tories who kept the faith nevertheless have trousers to wash tomorrow.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited December 2019
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    The first Scottish seat would give:
    SNP 53
    CON 3
    LD 1
    LAB 1

    The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    IanB2 said:

    ITV has 21 declarations and the BBC just 14

    yes. thanks!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Darlington:

    Con 20,901
    Lab 17,607
  • You see that Red Wall.

    Don't you mean that Blue Wall
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    I said it. I bet on it. Twice! I've spent the past 24hrs reassuring PB Tories that their fears were meaningless. Like, hello?

  • The Red Wall is crumbling by the minute.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0bcRCCg01I
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721

    I see ITV are recalculating the exit poll - now slightly down to 366 for the Tories and 193 for Labour.

    So Labour must be doing slightly, tinily, better than the exit poll (or Tories not quite as well by a smidge)

    It was explained on Sky, it is the late voters who were polled after 2100vbeing added in, not responding to actual results.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    This is on a par with 1997 and 1979
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    North East seems to be understating Tory swing as BP are mopping up the Labour defections. Swindon and Nuneaton suggest where the transfers are direct the swing is even bigger
  • Byronic said:

    Foxy said:

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.
    Yes, respect to you all

    I anticipated a Tory maj of 20-40. This is well in excess
    Foxy said:

    How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?

    Some of us have been forecasting Con 360 or so throughout, including @rcs1000 and @SouthamObserver and myself.
    Cough!

  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:


    This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.

    Careful. The Stalinists and Trots who run the party are very capable of portraying the disaster as due to Corbyn personally, and therefore not due to any shortcoming in the ideology. It's not just Corbyn you need to get rid of, it's all those behind him.

    I wish you luck, but they have the levers of power in the party.
    The unions are the key. Do they want Labour in power or not? When push comes to shove, the unions are pretty pragmatic.
    In principle, yes, but not so much in the last few years.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    edited December 2019
    speedy2 said:

    The first Scottish seat would give:
    SNP 53
    CON 3
    LD 1
    LAB 1

    The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.

    What are the three Scottish Conservative seats?
  • Byronic said:

    This is on a par with 1997 and 1979

    1935
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    When will we have our first southern seat?
  • ydoethur said:

    Rutherglen and Hamilton West in line with exit poll. SNP set for a very good night and a very major clash with Westminster.

    I want to see at least four more declarations before concurring that the exit poll is right.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Alan Johnson on ITV being a truth speaker
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695

    When will we have our first southern seat?

    ... and why does it take so long to count seats in the south?
  • Heidi Allen=definition of face like a smacked arse
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    speedy2 said:

    The first Scottish seat would give:
    SNP 53
    CON 3
    LD 1
    LAB 1

    The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.

    What are the three Scottish Conservative seats?
    Presumably it would be the 3 border seats - Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfriesshire Clydesdale etc and Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk?
  • dr_spyn said:
    I'm fairly sure the Jewish vote wasn't helpful to Labour
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Heidi Allen=definition of face like a smacked arse

    Do you want to post a selfie so we can compare?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    When will we have our first southern seat?

    Swindon North is in the south...
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    speedy2 said:

    The first Scottish seat would give:
    SNP 53
    CON 3
    LD 1
    LAB 1

    The exit poll looks correct in Scotland too.

    What are the three Scottish Conservative seats?
    Presumably it would be the 3 border seats - Dumfries & Galloway, Dumfriesshire Clydesdale etc and Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk?
    SNP gain Gordon now in to 10/11 (bet365)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Alan Johnson Bloody hell, what a loss.
  • When will we have our first southern seat?

    Swindon North is in the south...
    We prefer to think it isn't. It isn't even in Wiltshire any more
This discussion has been closed.