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SystemSystem Posts: 12,774
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s seat total might end up being smaller than Blair’s majority of 179 in 1997

Swindon North, a Labour seat 1997-2010

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Comments

  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    First?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,251
    edited December 2019
    A pointless second, as I suspect the LibDems are going to pile up in the south-east.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    Titters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,253
    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    Condemned to the Corbyn of history.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,411
    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,358
    Please can we have more results?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    Can we please ban posts regarding registrations figures next time around? :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    edited December 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,869
    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    numbertwelve said:

    Please can we have more results?

    I think my PC might blow up when we start getting 20 at a time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,411
    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    And it's probably down a bit more given the recency of the register this time. Scotland will probably see turnout rise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,253
    Vote share changes so far:

    Con +3.1%
    LD +3.0%
    Lab -11.7%

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,203
    https://www.twitter.com/ChrisLeslieUK/status/1205279445709443073
  • Fleet_of_WorldsFleet_of_Worlds Posts: 127
    RobD said:

    Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!

    All the way, dude. All the way.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205286284736057345?s=21
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,411
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    YES PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,203
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,358
    I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,662
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    Tipped at 200/1 by me.

    #LegendaryModestyKlaxon
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    IanB2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    As was posted often... :p
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,869
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/ChrisLeslieUK/status/1205279445709443073

    I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    I love how breathless the BBC are about some of the Tory gains, lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,312
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    I hope he holds, have some money on him lol
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    IanB2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,253
    rcs1000 said:

    Vote share changes so far:

    Con +3.1%
    LD +3.0%
    Lab -11.7%

    Sorry, that was pre the Swindon result. Now:

    Con +3.2%
    LD +3.1%
    Lab -12.5%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Sunderland West: Swing 11%
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Leaver labour voted for Boris in the referendum and appear to have done so again.... Even with waspi bribes and those big social media moments... Which seem not to have been.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205286284736057345?s=21

    bet365 over 3.5 seats 6/5
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,312
    Farage has taken the Labour leave vote lol
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,996
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205286284736057345?s=21

    Adam Price had a great campaign.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    Wow, how far down the list are the Tories going?!

    Jeremy Vine's infographic suggested that Walsall South was the safest Labour seat that would fall tonight, based on the exit poll.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,203
    numbertwelve said:

    I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.

    His brother would have been good
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,411
    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
    True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,996
    edited December 2019
    numbertwelve said:

    I really, really, really wish they'd given the Peter Snow job to someone other than Jeremy Vine.

    .
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Labour need to rebrand as London party.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Tommy Shepherd saying 55 SNP seats doesn't match their own numbers.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    After 8 results average swing 8%.
    Swingometer has the majority at 126.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    So when the FTPA is repealed, can we assume the Tories are now winter election fans and December 2024 is the favourite?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Might see the return of Ed Miliband.

    If he gets re-elected.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,203
    WhisperingOracle said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/ChrisLeslieUK/status/1205279445709443073

    I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Nevertheless he is right that the TIG breakaway was their last chance
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,996
    humbugger said:

    Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.

    Big shout going out to Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205286284736057345?s=21

    Adam Price had a great campaign.
    Yes I thought he was good in the debates as well.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Betfair: 370s band favourite

    Would mean Con outperform Exit Poll
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    I recommend occasionally switching to C4 to see the looks of absolute distress. Stanley Johnson looking like JRM on the seats of the House of Commons.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    humbugger said:

    Is this a good time to congratulate Peter Oborne on his far sighted judgement in voting Labour.

    Big shout going out to Steve Coogan and Hugh Grant.
    To be a fly on the wall of Steve this evening....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,108
    edited December 2019
    WhisperingOracle said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/ChrisLeslieUK/status/1205279445709443073

    I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.

    Farage, you genius. The guarantor of Brexit :o
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
    True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.
    Nope.
    The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    just backed Con gain Bolsover at 4/9 bet365
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    edited December 2019
    MyBurningEars said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    IanB2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Turnout is currently running -2.7% against 2017.

    BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
    It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
    And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
    FPT

    Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.

    Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
    Oh god, errhh, hmmm, I don't know...

    I will see...we are expecting a load of results soon and I need to check things don't blow up.

    Running this live thing is more stressful than waiting for the exit poll !!!!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Nick Robinson still the best political reporter.

    Even though he is now only a reporter on GE night.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Too close to call in Finchley according to Channel 4
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,662
    edited December 2019
    CHRIST.

    I remember when I was one of 754 Tories who voted in the Manchester Central by election.

    https://twitter.com/SteveRobson04/status/1205288274455076864
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    Jonathan said:

    Winstanley said:

    Jonathan said:

    Winstanley said:

    Jonathan said:

    The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.

    This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.

    What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
    * Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories.
    * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party .
    * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
    He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.

    Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.

    Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.

    It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.
    He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.

    You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
    I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.

    Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,743
    Why do people sneer at political celebrities and not political hedge fund bosses and newspaper owners? The latter surely hold more power over people.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,818
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.

    They won't vote tory, but they hate labour.. or at least Corbyn
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    RobD said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Brexit party standing seems to have taken many of the lab leaver votes too.

    Farage, you genius. The guarantor of Brexit :o
    Yes, agents Farage and Corbyn are some of the Tory party’s top agents.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    After 9 results the swing is 9%.
    Majority of 144.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,869
    edited December 2019
    Jonathan said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/ChrisLeslieUK/status/1205279445709443073

    I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.


    But all this had run out of steam by 2010. You need more than a mixture of NHS and education spending, gay rights, and populism on law and order and welfare, and David Miliband wouldn't have beaten Cameron in 2015 for these reasons either.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    After 10 results the swing is back down to 7.5%
    Majority of 116.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,411
    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    speedy2 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Notice that South Wales is more loyal to Labour. It is that much poorer than the North East and especially the East Midlands.

    Labour majorities were bigger in south Wales.
    True, but there was swingback to Labour during the election. I don't think that happened in NE England.
    Nope.
    The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.
    Okay, I'll take your word for it. Merseyside and its fringes on the other hand, very much staying loyal to Labour!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    edited December 2019
    Lansmann on ITV is just losing Labour even more votes !!!! Some rich southern bloke basically telling those that didn't vote Labour they were wrong.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    speedy2 said:

    After 9 results the swing is 9%.
    Majority of 144.

    Don't forget we have nothing from London or SE where swing will be much smaller
  • glwglw Posts: 10,572
    Jonathan said:

    WhisperingOracle said:

    IanB2 said:

    https://www.twitter.com/ChrisLeslieUK/status/1205279445709443073

    I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
    Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.
    I honestly agree with Labour more often than not about what the big issues are. But you can't seriously intend to run the country on throwing money at things and a commitment to undo essentially everything the Tories, Blair, or the coalition government did. For all the talk about fairness, equality, rights and so on, it was by far the most backward looking prospectus from any party in living memory, bar perhaps some of the nonsense UKIP comes out with.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Should Andrew Neil get his interview with Boris now?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,870
    speedy2 said:

    After 10 results the swing is back down to 7.5%
    Majority of 116.

    Con 380? Suits my book!
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 377
    Waspi bribe, free broadband, no tuition fees, slashed rail fares, Neilinterview gate, boyonfloorgate, fridgegate, and all the other stuff and yet Labour appear to have been stuffed. CCHQ did not seem to change the election strategy to respond to any of these issues. The private polling must have been strong and stable throughout.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Ave_it said:

    speedy2 said:

    After 9 results the swing is 9%.
    Majority of 144.

    Don't forget we have nothing from London or SE where swing will be much smaller
    True, but an update is still interesting.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,359
    https://twitter.com/ritula/status/1205289421492412416

    mmm.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,996
    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,358
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Should Andrew Neil get his interview with Boris now?

    I think Boris might be keen now.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,103
    Ian Lavery in recount !!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,800
    Fiona Hill v Jon Lansman hahaha
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/ritula/status/1205289421492412416

    mmm.

    *cackles uncontrollably*
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205286284736057345?s=21

    Adam Price had a great campaign.
    hooray - i think ben lake is a good mp for ceredigion
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    The third book in the Tim Shipman trilogy is going to be a belter.

    Has Cummings blogged yet?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,411
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    Oh dear, I'm in big trouble at work...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,124
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Ian Lavery in recount !!!

    I hope he goes

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Wansbeck???!!!!!!
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,568
    Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.

    Gentler politics personified.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    35/46 on the MRP !! :open_mouth:

    Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    llef said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205286284736057345?s=21

    Adam Price had a great campaign.
    hooray - i think ben lake is a good mp for ceredigion
    It looks as though you were right!

    The LibDems have slipped to 4th in Ceredigion, with the Tories second.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,312
    Alliance 1000 ahead on North Down
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,736
    edited December 2019
    Philip_Thompson said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    35/46 on the MRP !! :open_mouth:

    Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
    It is the one with the 28 seat majority.

    I am tempted to load in the first one.

    The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Ave_it said:

    Wansbeck???!!!!!!

    In line with the most extreme swing in the NE.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,312
    tlg86 said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    Oh dear, I'm in big trouble at work...
    Where is Wansbeck
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,870
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/ritula/status/1205289421492412416

    mmm.

    38.3% boomer...
  • marke0903marke0903 Posts: 30
    71.34% turnout in Ceredigion
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ozymandias said:

    Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.

    Gentler politics personified.

    Are they in mourning?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,382
    Ave_it said:

    Wansbeck???!!!!!!

    Full recount probably means less than 200 votes.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    FULL RECOUNT IN WANSBECK

    #LaveryOut

    One of the few people in the HoC I dislike more than Chote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,835
    Andy_JS said:

    Ave_it said:

    Wansbeck???!!!!!!

    Full recount probably means less than 200 votes.
    Majority 2017: 10,435. :p
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The left-leaning contributor on BBC is now blaming everything on Corbyn. The Labour Civil War gets underway...
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Philip_Thompson said:

    ozymandias said:

    Just switched on Channel 4. What a state.

    Gentler politics personified.

    Are they in mourning?
    The PM’s dad is loving it.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,823
    Wansbeck swing required over 12%
This discussion has been closed.

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