I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
Leaver labour voted for Boris in the referendum and appear to have done so again.... Even with waspi bribes and those big social media moments... Which seem not to have been.
I'm not at all convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour, as represented by Chris Leslie, is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
Nevertheless he is right that the TIG breakaway was their last chance
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
FPT
Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.
(FWIW us users of your sheet can actually sort and filter columns in our view, so setting one column as a flag would work well without requiring, I hope, major changes to your script...)
I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
FPT
Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.
Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
Oh god, errhh, hmmm, I don't know...
I will see...we are expecting a load of results soon and I need to check things don't blow up.
Running this live thing is more stressful than waiting for the exit poll !!!!
The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories. * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party . * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.
Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.
Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.
It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.
But all this had run out of steam by 2010. You need more than a mixture of NHS and education spending, gay rights, and populism on law and order and welfare, and David Miliband wouldn't have beaten Cameron in 2015 for these reasons either.
I'm mot convinced that 1997-2010-era Labour is the answer for them. A reworked Miliband-era Labour might be, though.
Labour needs to remember that it is there to represent working people and improve their lives. It wasn't just a fluffy idealistic theological left-wing endeavour. It was practical and through ideas like 'tough on crime and the causes of crime', dealt with issues that counted.
I honestly agree with Labour more often than not about what the big issues are. But you can't seriously intend to run the country on throwing money at things and a commitment to undo essentially everything the Tories, Blair, or the coalition government did. For all the talk about fairness, equality, rights and so on, it was by far the most backward looking prospectus from any party in living memory, bar perhaps some of the nonsense UKIP comes out with.
Waspi bribe, free broadband, no tuition fees, slashed rail fares, Neilinterview gate, boyonfloorgate, fridgegate, and all the other stuff and yet Labour appear to have been stuffed. CCHQ did not seem to change the election strategy to respond to any of these issues. The private polling must have been strong and stable throughout.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
Comments
Con +3.1%
LD +3.0%
Lab -11.7%
#LegendaryModestyKlaxon
Con +3.2%
LD +3.1%
Lab -12.5%
Swingometer has the majority at 126.
Would mean Con outperform Exit Poll
Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.
(FWIW us users of your sheet can actually sort and filter columns in our view, so setting one column as a flag would work well without requiring, I hope, major changes to your script...)
Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
The Yougov Welsh Barometer was correct, there was no swingback to Labour.
I will see...we are expecting a load of results soon and I need to check things don't blow up.
Running this live thing is more stressful than waiting for the exit poll !!!!
Even though he is now only a reporter on GE night.
I remember when I was one of 754 Tories who voted in the Manchester Central by election.
https://twitter.com/SteveRobson04/status/1205288274455076864
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
Majority of 144.
Majority of 116.
mmm.
#LaveryOut
Has Cummings blogged yet?
Gentler politics personified.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
The LibDems have slipped to 4th in Ceredigion, with the Tories second.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.