The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories. * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party . * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after it was lost.
Antisemitism scandal was arguably worse in 2017, with Ken and the mural etc. For all the talk, Labour has beefed up it's disciplinary response.
Some of 2019 was easily ridiculed, sure. But the main thrust, of patching up disintegrating public realm through taxation of the wealthy, public ownership of key utilities etc., the things that Corbyn is keen on and which wouldn't have been there under any other potential leader, are popular.
It'll never be settled obviously. Brexit is the defining fact of probably the next few decades so there's no use imagining what the Corbyn moment could have been without such a relentless focus on it.
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
To be honest....gulp...not a terrible result. BJ no longer being held to ransom by the loons. And there will be a blood letting in Labour which hopefully will get rid of Corbyn and his acolytes.....
Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, blaming SCon losses on wrong distribution of votes. They have been putting on votes in the Central Belt where they are largely useless.
Expect *lots* of SCon second places. This might be the big strategic change from UK GE 2019: it’ll be all SNP vs CON from now on.
So, a colleague recently moved to London from there. Was very keen on the Lib Dems so I suggested registering in SE London and voting for them as, even if they probably wouldn't win, they might be in range next time. Anyway, that was three weeks ago and it turned out that he dislikes the Tories a lot more than liking the Lib Dems.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The first one seems more accurate. Perhaps because that is when postal votes went in.
There was a chart in the report that showed a massive dip on the day they did the MRP for the Tories. It probably was photo-gate. I think they lost like 20 seats from the previous day's prediction.
BUT BUT BUT...all those tweets about massive queues...
It was always blindingly obvious that people prefer to walk to the polling station in daylight.
And I noted when I popped out last night, its Christmas Party season...It was heaving with people and clearly they will have voted in the morning (if they voted).
FPT
Can I be COMPLETELY BLOODY CHEEKY and suggest that when a result gets filled in on the WonderSheet, then the Est Time column gets overwritten by actual time? Or that a spare column gets used as a binary flag, set to 1 when a result come in? Since the est times are well off in some cases, it would be nice to be able to sort the sheet to see the actual declarations at a glance at the top, rather than have to scroll well down to see the ones that came in early.
Love the sheet btw, many thanks for it!
Oh god, errhh, hmmm, I don't know...
I will see...we are expecting a load of results soon and I need to check things don't blow up.
Running this live thing is more stressful than waiting for the exit poll !!!!
Yeah to be fair this might be less useful once there have been more than a handful of seats in!!
A way you could do this in the sheet without (I presume) needing to change your Python script would be
U1: "Declaration" U2: =if(G2="","Pending","In") With U2 selected, double click the handle at the bottom right of the cell to autofill it down column U.
Viewers can go to column U and click "Sort A-Z"
Then confirmed results appear at the top of the sheet, with the rest staying in expected declaration order. Works on my copy of your sheet anyway!
Totally understood if you can't be arsed, you've done more than enough already!
So, a colleague recently moved to London from there. Was very keen on the Lib Dems so I suggested registering in SE London and voting for them as, even if they probably wouldn't win, they might be in range next time. Anyway, that was three weeks ago and it turned out that he dislikes the Tories a lot more than liking the Lib Dems.
PB Tories will forever be in your debt if the Tories take it by a vote.
Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, blaming SCon losses on wrong distribution of votes. They have been putting on votes in the Central Belt where they are largely useless.
Expect *lots* of SCon second places. This might be the big strategic change from UK GE 2019: it’ll be all SNP vs CON from now on.
Yeah, but will they hold BRS so I don't lose £100?!
Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, blaming SCon losses on wrong distribution of votes. They have been putting on votes in the Central Belt where they are largely useless.
Expect *lots* of SCon second places. This might be the big strategic change from UK GE 2019: it’ll be all SNP vs CON from now on.
So, a colleague recently moved to London from there. Was very keen on the Lib Dems so I suggested registering in SE London and voting for them as, even if they probably wouldn't win, they might be in range next time. Anyway, that was three weeks ago and it turned out that he dislikes the Tories a lot more than liking the Lib Dems.
PB Tories will forever be in your debt if the Tories take it by a vote.
I mean, I did ask him what he cared about more, but I did also point out that if Wansbeck fell it would be a Tory landslide anyway. What I hadn't anticipated was the Lib Dem collapse in most of London.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
I would just like to say how much I enjoyed your gifs during your hourly breakdowns but the feeling is good now.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
I would just like to say how much I enjoyed your gifs during your hourly breakdowns but the feeling is good now.
Ideally I would like to see some more Tory gains, to see whether or not the swing to the Tories lines up with the exit poll. The victory may not be as dramatic as currently projected (although we must also factor in the possibility that the SCons aren't as badly beaten as the scanty Scottish data suggests.) Anyway, whether I'm awake or asleep things will be the same in the morning, and I have work tomorrow!
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
If it’s right that this is more about Corbyn than Brexit, we can expect to see differential swing against Corbynistas.
56% of Wansbeck voters voted Leave in 2016... we'll see swings broadly correlated with the 2016 vote imo, not which faction a candidate is from. Only the very geeky like you'll find on this site know or care.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
I would just like to say how much I enjoyed your gifs during your hourly breakdowns but the feeling is good now.
Curtice advises that some results are showing slightly smaller Lab to Con swings than the exit poll suggested so the Tory majority may be smaller than 86.
Murdo Fraser, Con MSP, blaming SCon losses on wrong distribution of votes. They have been putting on votes in the Central Belt where they are largely useless.
Expect *lots* of SCon second places. This might be the big strategic change from UK GE 2019: it’ll be all SNP vs CON from now on.
Looks like there is only one Unionist party now.
Correct. And it’s the wrong one! Only Labour could have saved the Union, and they are well and truly stuffed.
So, a colleague recently moved to London from there. Was very keen on the Lib Dems so I suggested registering in SE London and voting for them as, even if they probably wouldn't win, they might be in range next time. Anyway, that was three weeks ago and it turned out that he dislikes the Tories a lot more than liking the Lib Dems.
PB Tories will forever be in your debt if the Tories take it by a vote.
I mean, I did ask him what he cared about more, but I did also point out that if Wansbeck fell it would be a Tory landslide anyway. What I hadn't anticipated was the Lib Dem collapse in most of London.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
I would just like to say how much I enjoyed your gifs during your hourly breakdowns but the feeling is good now.
Is the MRP in @FrancisUrquhart 's spreadsheet the original MRP or the final one? Seems like YouGov s**t the bed with this one.
It is the one with the 28 seat majority.
I am tempted to load in the first one.
The problem for YouGov is they did the MRP at the height of "photo-gate" and it showed a massive drop in Tory %. But we saw by the time GE, that polling showed no dip in Tory %. If they had taken the MRP 2 days before they would have had a much bigger majority for the Tories.
I would just like to say how much I enjoyed your gifs during your hourly breakdowns but the feeling is good now.
Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories. * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party . * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after
SNIP FOR SPACEt.
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
2017 and 2019 were Corbyn's elections. The big difference between them being, as I said, a commitment to a second referendum. The prospect of having to go through another referendum is a put off for all but those few who have never got over 2016.
Comments
Pouring myself a drink and watching. Best fun in ages.
To be honest....gulp...not a terrible result. BJ no longer being held to ransom by the loons. And there will be a blood letting in Labour which hopefully will get rid of Corbyn and his acolytes.....
Breaking News!
Stephen Farry Has Won North Down By 2000 Votes approx.
Colum Eastwood expected to win Foyle.
Expect *lots* of SCon second places. This might be the big strategic change from UK GE 2019: it’ll be all SNP vs CON from now on.
A way you could do this in the sheet without (I presume) needing to change your Python script would be
U1: "Declaration"
U2: =if(G2="","Pending","In")
With U2 selected, double click the handle at the bottom right of the cell to autofill it down column U.
Viewers can go to column U and click "Sort A-Z"
Then confirmed results appear at the top of the sheet, with the rest staying in expected declaration order. Works on my copy of your sheet anyway!
Totally understood if you can't be arsed, you've done more than enough already!
Ed Miliband 350.55 £31.00 £10,836.00
Although he is 430 now
Do you have any happy ones ?
The Last Miliband
The Rise of Miliband
How many interviews is A Neil going to get in the next 5 years with the government then?
Career over?
Ideally I would like to see some more Tory gains, to see whether or not the swing to the Tories lines up with the exit poll. The victory may not be as dramatic as currently projected (although we must also factor in the possibility that the SCons aren't as badly beaten as the scanty Scottish data suggests.) Anyway, whether I'm awake or asleep things will be the same in the morning, and I have work tomorrow!
Colum Eastwood is the leader of the SDLP.
https://twitter.com/MichaelCraig96/status/1205290517443026945
Nice to see Mps from both of these.
His 30,000 word response is going to be bottle-of-wine hilarious.
I never watch the BBC but the thought of bercow has forced me over
Bury N staying Labour too.