Curtice advises that some results are showing slightly smaller Lab to Con swings than the exit poll suggested so the Tory majority may be smaller than 86.
But so far only in seats which are too safe to matter - 80 odd majority on a 14% vote lead always felt slim - wouldn't be surprising if they get the wins but with a lower overall vote lead.
Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
Curtice advises that some results are showing slightly smaller Lab to Con swings than the exit poll suggested so the Tory majority may be smaller than 86.
Although we haven't had anything from the MIdlands and Wales apart from Nuneaton.
The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories. * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party . * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) for Remain in the referendum. According to the Ashcroft poll 64% of Labour supporters voted Remain, compared to 68% of LDs it ain't bad. Especially considering polls under Miliband had 50% of Labour voters in favour of Brexit (at the time Tom Watson was campaigning forvan EU ref let's remember). The data to pin it on Corbyn isn't there, he just tried to get the party to accept the referendum was lost after
SNIP FOR SPACEt.
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
2017 and 2019 were Corbyn's elections. The big difference between them being, as I said, a commitment to a second referendum. The prospect of having to go through another referendum is a put off for all but those few who have never got over 2016.
I'm not sure that's the reason at all. We were earlier on in the Brexit process and his ambiguity on it simply worked better, I think. Meanwhile there was the surprise of Labour having returned to the left, and suspended disbelief that this would bring improvement in the northern towns.
Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
Yes, he needs to deliver.
Labour haven't delivered for these people for decades, why should they only give Boris five years?
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
The membership and party bodies are overwhelmingly left wing/Corbynist/Momentum. They aren’t ceding control just because the MPs ain’t happy.
Corbyn and McDonnell have worked hard to ensure the Left are ascendant.
The SNP is the answer to the idea that it was Brexit alone that caused Labour to lose.
This is all about Corbyn, Milne and their cult.
What's the difference between now and 2017? Labour commitment to a second referendum.
* Corbyn sat on the fence on Brexit at the key moment, tried to triangulate the issue, confused and annoyed everyone and could not lay a finger on the Tories. * The total catastrophic mishandling of antisemitism in the party . * Much of the 2019 manifesto lacked credibility, whereas the 2017 manifesto borrowed heavily from 1997.
He didn't sit on the fence. He campaigned (well imo) SNIP FOR SPACEt.
He was 'neutral' on Brexit. That is a fence fully inserted.
You really need to wake up. Corbyn was utterly toxic and tone deaf beyond his core vote. He screwed up by inflating a massive bubble and inviting you all to live in it.
I find this bizarre, having sat on a polling station all day where people kept wanting to talk about Brexit, how they'd already voted for Brexit, etc. Nobody is turning up going 'what we want is PFI and less public ownership'. It isn't an accident that the Tory campaign can be reduced to the word 'Brexit'.
Imo the real bubble is those who let the shock of 2016 wear off, started seeing a regretful former Brexiteer in every corner, and wanted tongamvle the house on a second referendum.
This was Corbyn's election. He was leader. He wrote the manifesto. He set strategy. This is his result. He needs to take responsibility, go and take the bubble with him.
2017 and 2019 were Corbyn's elections. The big difference between them being, as I said, a commitment to a second referendum. The prospect of having to go through another referendum is a put off for all but those few who have never got over 2016.
I'm not sure that's the reason at all. We were earlier on in the Brexit process and his ambiguity on it simply worked better, I think. Meanwhile there was the surprise of Labour having returned to the left, and suspended disbelief in the northern towns.
Well yeah. Deal reached with the EU makes a second referendum sound even more absurd. 2017's version of neutrality (no ref, Labour deal) versus 2019's (Labour deal and a referendum) is the tipping point for Labour leavers imo.
They need a centrist leader with a bit of soft left policy like the railways being nationalised (which is popular) but with none of Corbyn's baggage. Cut down the policies hugely, too many.
Dump Momentum, dump Corbyn's team. More experienced team to deal with the media properly.
I do think the Tories have tacked to the left slightly on economic policy, so Labour can be in that general direction but not as far left as they have gone.
They must also not become a rejoin party. The Lib Dems have shown that to be a disaster.
So, I'd support Starmer but he seems too London centric to me. Phillips seems okay. I think RLB is too close to Corbyn to be any good now.
Any centrist/very soft left leaders people know of?
The membership and party bodies are overwhelmingly left wing/Corbynist/Momentum. They aren’t ceding control just because the MPs ain’t happy.
Corbyn and McDonnell have worked hard to ensure the Left are ascendant.
The party may need to split.
Miliband and Starmer can just about hold it together.
Boris Johnson is now going to have a plethora of seats representing ex-industrial and deprived constituencies. Unless he can offer these new places concrete things fairly quickly, his new populist coalition won't last.
Yes, he needs to deliver.
How Casino? Seriously, these are places which globalisation is leaving behind....they are on a one way ticket to Pallookaville
How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
We all spend too much time on the t'interweb, where Jezza is dead popular.
How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
We thought it would happen again. I can't quite believe what is happening,
How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
It's a relief to see sanity restored - after 2017 we thought the world had turned upside down.
"So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position."
How the fuck has everybody been blindsided by that 2017 exit poll, such that we couldn't see the blindingly obvious - Labour were going to get marmalised?
I don't know about you but I have a problem with my hindsight - it only seems to be working after an event these days
The remainers trying to throw Corbyn under the bus already.
Blame game is Corbyn Vs Remain
SNP success blows Remain argument out of the water.
Remain party wins Remain country shock. Must be because they aren't radically left wing (except they are whenever it suits the argument)
Left wing party with "remain" leader wins all the seats. Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
I just don't understand how you can't see the difference between a party standing across constituencies that mostly went for Remain, versus one standing in seats across the spectrum, gaining in Remainy seats (possibly, we'll see) while losing massively in Leave or less ardent Renain seats. The SNP doesn't have these Leave areas to lose.
Comments
That would be a Majority of 116.
One day the Cooperative Party will figure they ought to decouple themselves from Labour.
Result still to be declared.
But I take your point.
the brexit agent is saying its a lab/plaid fight..so who knows..
But big swings in Swindon North and Nuneaton should be close to national average I would have thought.
I can only imagine the state she is in this evening.
Left wing party with "neutral" leader leads party to the worst result since 1935.
I know you're circling the wagons around your man and there is nobility in that. But he is a total abject failure, whose ego has led to this moment.
Seriously, these are places which globalisation is leaving behind....they are on a one way ticket to Pallookaville
Jimmy Carr is such a closet tory but can't reveal himself.
"So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position."
Many congratulations and let us hope we can all unite in a one nation conservative party
Con 30,631
Lab 10,824
LD 3,970
Grn 1,281
Con +3.4%
Lab -5.7%
LD +5.4%
Grn +1.0%
South Antrim : Sources say that Paul Girvan (D.U.P) will hold his seat with a reduced margin ahead of Danny Kinahan (U.U.P) who will finish second.
Those prices dont match up IMO.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205296015106023426?s=20