politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson gets his wish. The irony is that Jo Swinson made
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A Jewish friend has stood down his move to Switzerland. He is now in the process of getting "totally wasted".2
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WE HAVE NO RESULTS YET0
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I don’t think even she is guaranteed to hang on in this situation, although Oxford is of course very Remainy.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
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Kate Hoey vindicated.2
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My son reports in Colchester they still expect a Labour minority government - the polls are wrong innit!!!rottenborough said:
Utterly fucked.Razedabode said:If blythe valley is close...Labour are buggered, surely?
Hope the 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' crowd are very proud of themselves tonight.
Who will comfort the Momentum kids crying tonight?0 -
One of the constituencies is Richmond Park and the single polling station sampled is in Barnes in the ex-local authority estate (RA). It used to be full of LibDems but it is also full of the left behind leavers may of whom have deserted the LDs. The rest of Barnes are wealthy remainers who have embraced the LibDems but weren't in the sample.IanB2 said:I know the BBC seat projections are the only data we have to play with, but I think people are taking their predictions too seriously. They only sample 144 constituencies and only one polling station in each constituency.
The rest is guesswork.0 -
In Scotland there is a credible chance that indeed it is.StuartDickson said:SNP saying NE Fife far from certain.
ie. Exit Poll *IS* pants.0 -
'Life comes at you reasonably quickly' or something.brokenwheel said:
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1111335594985209861rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145
Spin, spin, spin from the Corbynites. It was all Brexit.0 -
Seems like no one other than Blyth Valley are counting0
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Hmm. Very unsure of that.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
I predict she is going to have the same issues as Jo Swinson - but more so. Women won't warm to her.0 -
I think Labour will just hold Blyth Valley.0
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I can fully believe the exit poll for the SNP in Scotland. They were right in 2015 and 2017.
I just hope the Tories retain B,R&S or I’m going to the poor house.1 -
Same as UKIP last election. Ended up <2%Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably one minor point here is that the BXP vote was vapourised?
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https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1205255639364190214
(The artiste formerly known as tim)0 -
I would have to say good - I gave my Lib Dem candidate here some stick over the misleading crap they pulledStuartDickson said:Speculation that the (ahem) “creative” Lib Dem bar charts and... errr... supporting letters from... errr election expert... may have damaged them.
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BUNDLE!
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A few million surely.Foxy said:
I think there will be more than 13 LDs tommorow.Black_Rook said:
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!Foxy said:
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD holdrcs1000 said:Norfolk North 91% chance LD hold. Allegedly.
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I don't see that happening. BoZo purged his cabinet, deselected the moderates as his first acts, before trashing the constitution. He will not tack centrally.Andrew said:Someone put a gag in Mark Francois.
Thank christ he has no influence now. Watch as Johnson throws the ERG under the bus immediately and tacks towards the centre.0 -
??Sunil_Prasannan said:BUNDLE!
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It is SO unlikely that they will lose, I'm in in the east of the constituency which is more SNP leaning, and it is FULL of Tories.Casino_Royale said:I can fully believe the exit poll for the SNP in Scotland. They were right in 2015 and 2017.
I just hope the Tories retain B,R&S or I’m going to the poor house.0 -
The exit poll is only wrong at the edges we’re talking + or - ten seats for each party, irrelevant for lab con but maybe interesting for lib dems0
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Owen Jones still doesn't get it.0
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More charisma I think.MarqueeMark said:
Hmm. Very unsure of that.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
I predict she is going to have the same issues as Jo Swinson - but more so. Women won't warm to her.0 -
That was a direct quote from a BBC journalist. Don’t shoot the messenger.Alistair said:
That's bollocks. On the BBC website it is too close to call.StuartDickson said:Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.0 -
Justine Greening dismissing the idea that this was a Brexit election. She’s suggesting Johnson had a better domestic agenda.0
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844ydoethur said:
I don’t think even she is guaranteed to hang on in this situation, although Oxford is of course very Remainy.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
I think this will hang over her, fairly or not, because we know it would not have been accepted for a man to have physically assaulted his partner and been arrested for it, and "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too" is the kind of argument that has an attractive moral clarity to it to many people, even if it doesn't acknowledge nuances such as the asymmetry in male/female domestic violence.0 -
But at least Jezza won't be stealing your actual house!Casino_Royale said:I can fully believe the exit poll for the SNP in Scotland. They were right in 2015 and 2017.
I just hope the Tories retain B,R&S or I’m going to the poor house.
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It s people posting shit like this that makes a National socialist Scotland more likelyFoxy said:
Perhaps more SLDs and SLAB voters are less keen on a Union with Tory English Nationalists, than a social democrat inclined Independent Scotland in the EU. Perhaps Unionism doesn't trump everything.rcs1000 said:
"Bollocks to Brexit" has likely resulted in the LDs losing Conservative tactical voters.EPG said:
It would make sense if 2017's tactical-to-LD votes have evaporated.StuartDickson said:Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
Certainly If I were a Scot, I would back Yes.
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Nail...head...hit...on...Richard_Nabavi said:https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1205255639364190214
(The artiste formerly known as tim)0 -
She's 99+% chance of holding on according to the Beeb exit poll. So I reckon she's probably safe.ydoethur said:
I don’t think even she is guaranteed to hang on in this situation, although Oxford is of course very Remainy.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
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LDs will net gain seats, Lab net lose them.bigjohnowls said:
A few million surely.Foxy said:
I think there will be more than 13 LDs tommorow.Black_Rook said:
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!Foxy said:
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD holdrcs1000 said:Norfolk North 91% chance LD hold. Allegedly.
This is either the end of Corbynism or the end of the Labour Party.0 -
If that's accurate, it's not that big a majority. Around 8% I reckon? That might give the tories a chance to retain some of their safer Scottish seats (like Dumfires & Galloway, West Aberdeenshire or Moray).Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Wonder what's happening in Sunderland?0
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I don’t, but no-one for the next five years is ever going to doubt your predictions!rcs1000 said:
You mean Luciana.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
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First result about to come through from Newcastle Central.0
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NUTC declares first.0
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Thanks for the heads up - it was a real goody.Alistair said:Oof, SNP seat line bet is now down to 52.5
Hope you all got on while you had the chance.0 -
But Tory Islamaphobia or something.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nail...head...hit...on...Richard_Nabavi said:https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1205255639364190214
(The artiste formerly known as tim)
Actually, I don't think it is AS. It's Brexit. These voters believed Labour in 2017. They didn't make the same mistake in 2019.0 -
Owen Jones on ITV coverage right now, babbling and clearly doesn't know what to say. They are already starting the blame game saying it's not Corbyn's fault.0
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Some classic bullshit artists have just been found out on ITV.0
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Newcastle Central!0
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No it wasn’t. It was out by one! Exit Poll had 34 SNP Seats. We won 35, including NE Fife by 2 votes!speedy2 said:
In Scotland indeed I have the same doubts.StuartDickson said:Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
The Exit Poll was a bit off last time in Scotland.0 -
I hate to break it to the Good Lord but there’s one in less than five years!CarlottaVance said:0 -
So it the money in unlikely Labour London gains?0
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Newcastle Central:
Lab 21,568 (57.6%)
Con 9,290 (24.8%)
LD 2,709 (7.2%)
BRX 2,542 (6.8%)
Grn 1,365 (3.6%)0 -
Swing quite low Newcastle C - exit poll might be out!0
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Newcastle Upon Central declaring. 21K Lab - Con 9K.0
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I couldn’t get on fast enough.Richard_Nabavi said:
Thanks for the heads up - it was a real goody.Alistair said:Oof, SNP seat line bet is now down to 52.5
Hope you all got on while you had the chance.
Stuck on trains and tube 😡0 -
Newcastle Central:
2,709 LD
2,542 Brexit
21,568 Labour
9,290 Conservative
1,365 Greens0 -
This isn't the age of equality, it's the age of fairness. Trump grasped this, and so does Boris. She would have easily rode it out.MyBurningEars said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-47686844ydoethur said:
I don’t think even she is guaranteed to hang on in this situation, although Oxford is of course very Remainy.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
I think this will hang over her, fairly or not, because we know it would not have been accepted for a man to have physically assaulted his partner and been arrested for it, and "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too" is the kind of argument that has an attractive moral clarity to it to many people, even if it doesn't acknowledge nuances such as the asymmetry in male/female domestic violence.0 -
Hmm.dr_spyn said:Newcastle Upon Central declaring. 21K Lab - Con 9K.
Results also seem a bit slower to come in.0 -
65% turnout
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Hoping that's the last time I ever see Mark francois on telly again....1
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bet365 10/11 SNP gain East Dunbartonshire. not sure how LibDem get only 13 and SNP get 55 without them winning this one.0
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Lab hold Newkie central by 12K0
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Labour have an MP! stop the counts!0
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Labour hold the first declared seat. Down about 10% if my maths is right.0
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3.5% swing Newcastle Central0
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Small swing in the first result.0
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LAB Hold With 65%: better than predicted! Newcastle C0
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That doesn't look like quite I was expecting, if the exit poll is completely right.0
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That's not a spectacular result for the Tories.0
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Very much agree.Scrapheap_as_was said:Hoping that's the last time I ever see Mark francois on telly again....
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I did point out that the Welsh valleys offered the Brexit party its best chance of a seat. I’d like to hear about some of the others in the region.Andy_JS said:0 -
Differential turnout.Andy_JS said:There must have been a last minute swing to the SNP. Not sure why.
The final Survation hinted at it. OAP and Conservative certainty to vote down.
2017 was SCons being more certain to vote, SNP voters being lazy.
The 2016 holyrood election was really clear, increased Constituency turnout mapped to increased Con vote very linearly.
This time is the reverse.0 -
The BBC forecasts the LDs lose all four of their Scottish seats, but make up for it by winning seats in English Remainia.paulyork64 said:bet365 10/11 SNP gain East Dunbartonshire. not sure how LibDem get only 13 and SNP get 55 without them winning this one.
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Floater said:
??Sunil_Prasannan said:BUNDLE!
https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/8226814.mums-plea-to-stop-playground-bundling-after-girl-injured/
Given that I "got" Sunil's reference immediately, I wondered if this was a battlecry and subsequent activity common in playgrounds and school corridors across the land, or just geographically and temporally limited to grammar schools of a certain locality and era. I'm sort of glad to learn it's more widespread and ongoing, though bone surgeons across the land will almost certainly disagree with me...1 -
Houghton:
Lab 16,210
Con 13,095
BRX 6,165
LD 2,319
Grn 1,125
UKIP 897
Lab maj 3,1150 -
Big swing in Sunderland to Tories!0
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LOL Bridget Phillipson hair goes frizzy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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CarlottaVance said:
THE LDS HAVE HELD THEIR DEPOSIT
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Ouch for UKIP - joke figure.
Sunderland Central stays Labour, but a savage cut in the majority.
Edit - sorry, that was Houghton.0 -
Sunderland
Green 1,125
LD 2,319
UKIP 897
Cons 13,095
Labour 16,210
Brexit 6,1750 -
Fucking Farage!!0
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Leave vote split in Sunderland.0
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Sunderland: In line with exit poll....0
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Lab hold Houghton and Sunderland S by 3,115. Over 6,000 for BXP.0
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7.5% swing Sunderland0
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3000 off in Houghton lol0
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Don't forget Newcastle C is quite remain0
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19% L>C swing in H & S south.0
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Dreadful con numbersCarlottaVance said:
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It's simpler than that, mere self-interest: The EU did not want to open the floodgates to an a la carte union. Lose something the UK doesn't like, and the others take away something the UK likes, and the cycle goes on. People who actually work in the institutions think the UK is foolish to leave, but not a blow to the project, and a price worth paying.Morris_Dancer said:King Bongo, that's a useful comment, though, as it suggests that this may be why the EU didn't take the referendum all that seriously beforehand and offered Cameron sod all in his renegotiation (which ended up harming rather than helping him).
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Brexit Party save Labour in Houghton.0
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Looking at these first ones, you'd have to think the exit poll may at least have exaggerated the Tories a bit, and possibly slightly more than that. A strong majority looks very likely, though.0
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She will. 100% guaranteed.ydoethur said:
I don’t think even she is guaranteed to hang on in this situation, although Oxford is of course very Remainy.El_Capitano said:Layla is going to make a great leader.
The Conservative candidate was beyond terrible. They passed up a superb county councillor who would have given Layla a good run.
I will eat the hat of any Liberal Democrat of your choice if Layla loses.1 -
OMG TORIES WIN BLYTH VALLEY0
