I know the BBC seat projections are the only data we have to play with, but I think people are taking their predictions too seriously. They only sample 144 constituencies and only one polling station in each constituency.
The rest is guesswork.
One of the constituencies is Richmond Park and the single polling station sampled is in Barnes in the ex-local authority estate (RA). It used to be full of LibDems but it is also full of the left behind leavers may of whom have deserted the LDs. The rest of Barnes are wealthy remainers who have embraced the LibDems but weren't in the sample.
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
Thank christ he has no influence now. Watch as Johnson throws the ERG under the bus immediately and tacks towards the centre.
I don't see that happening. BoZo purged his cabinet, deselected the moderates as his first acts, before trashing the constitution. He will not tack centrally.
I think this will hang over her, fairly or not, because we know it would not have been accepted for a man to have physically assaulted his partner and been arrested for it, and "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too" is the kind of argument that has an attractive moral clarity to it to many people, even if it doesn't acknowledge nuances such as the asymmetry in male/female domestic violence.
Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
It would make sense if 2017's tactical-to-LD votes have evaporated.
"Bollocks to Brexit" has likely resulted in the LDs losing Conservative tactical voters.
Perhaps more SLDs and SLAB voters are less keen on a Union with Tory English Nationalists, than a social democrat inclined Independent Scotland in the EU. Perhaps Unionism doesn't trump everything.
Certainly If I were a Scot, I would back Yes.
It s people posting shit like this that makes a National socialist Scotland more likely
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
I think there will be more than 13 LDs tommorow.
A few million surely.
LDs will net gain seats, Lab net lose them.
This is either the end of Corbynism or the end of the Labour Party.
If that's accurate, it's not that big a majority. Around 8% I reckon? That might give the tories a chance to retain some of their safer Scottish seats (like Dumfires & Galloway, West Aberdeenshire or Moray).
Owen Jones on ITV coverage right now, babbling and clearly doesn't know what to say. They are already starting the blame game saying it's not Corbyn's fault.
I think this will hang over her, fairly or not, because we know it would not have been accepted for a man to have physically assaulted his partner and been arrested for it, and "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too" is the kind of argument that has an attractive moral clarity to it to many people, even if it doesn't acknowledge nuances such as the asymmetry in male/female domestic violence.
This isn't the age of equality, it's the age of fairness. Trump grasped this, and so does Boris. She would have easily rode it out.
Given that I "got" Sunil's reference immediately, I wondered if this was a battlecry and subsequent activity common in playgrounds and school corridors across the land, or just geographically and temporally limited to grammar schools of a certain locality and era. I'm sort of glad to learn it's more widespread and ongoing, though bone surgeons across the land will almost certainly disagree with me...
King Bongo, that's a useful comment, though, as it suggests that this may be why the EU didn't take the referendum all that seriously beforehand and offered Cameron sod all in his renegotiation (which ended up harming rather than helping him).
It's simpler than that, mere self-interest: The EU did not want to open the floodgates to an a la carte union. Lose something the UK doesn't like, and the others take away something the UK likes, and the cycle goes on. People who actually work in the institutions think the UK is foolish to leave, but not a blow to the project, and a price worth paying.
Looking at these first ones, you'd have to think the exit poll may at least have exaggerated the Tories a bit, and possibly slightly more than that. A strong majority looks very likely, though.
Comments
I predict she is going to have the same issues as Jo Swinson - but more so. Women won't warm to her.
I just hope the Tories retain B,R&S or I’m going to the poor house.
(The artiste formerly known as tim)
https://twitter.com/Colkitto/status/1205265183897260033?s=20
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1205265872182378496?s=20
I think this will hang over her, fairly or not, because we know it would not have been accepted for a man to have physically assaulted his partner and been arrested for it, and "if you're all about equality, why doesn't that apply to women too" is the kind of argument that has an attractive moral clarity to it to many people, even if it doesn't acknowledge nuances such as the asymmetry in male/female domestic violence.
This is either the end of Corbynism or the end of the Labour Party.
Actually, I don't think it is AS. It's Brexit. These voters believed Labour in 2017. They didn't make the same mistake in 2019.
Lab 21,568 (57.6%)
Con 9,290 (24.8%)
LD 2,709 (7.2%)
BRX 2,542 (6.8%)
Grn 1,365 (3.6%)
Stuck on trains and tube 😡
2,709 LD
2,542 Brexit
21,568 Labour
9,290 Conservative
1,365 Greens
Results also seem a bit slower to come in.
The final Survation hinted at it. OAP and Conservative certainty to vote down.
2017 was SCons being more certain to vote, SNP voters being lazy.
The 2016 holyrood election was really clear, increased Constituency turnout mapped to increased Con vote very linearly.
This time is the reverse.
https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/8226814.mums-plea-to-stop-playground-bundling-after-girl-injured/
Given that I "got" Sunil's reference immediately, I wondered if this was a battlecry and subsequent activity common in playgrounds and school corridors across the land, or just geographically and temporally limited to grammar schools of a certain locality and era. I'm sort of glad to learn it's more widespread and ongoing, though bone surgeons across the land will almost certainly disagree with me...
Lab 16,210
Con 13,095
BRX 6,165
LD 2,319
Grn 1,125
UKIP 897
Lab maj 3,115
THE LDS HAVE HELD THEIR DEPOSIT
Sunderland Central stays Labour, but a savage cut in the majority.
Edit - sorry, that was Houghton.
Green 1,125
LD 2,319
UKIP 897
Cons 13,095
Labour 16,210
Brexit 6,175
The Conservative candidate was beyond terrible. They passed up a superb county councillor who would have given Layla a good run.
I will eat the hat of any Liberal Democrat of your choice if Layla loses.
Majority slashed in Sunderland South
Blyth Valley goes Con!