Well I've been in the pub with the leader of a major national political party, and can report that Howling Laud Hope isn't confident about retaining his deposit. Now home to hopefully watch Labour carnage on the telly.
Possibility 1: they got the turnout weighting wrong for ex Labour Leavers. 2: people say the prediction and changes their votes/decided to vote after all. 3: they didn’t and the Exit Poll is wrong (this is the least likely I think).
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
Mr. EPG, leaving the UK would've entailed leaving the EU. It's deranged to argue that leaving the EU is therefore so unacceptable it becomes an argument to leave the UK.
Leaving the EU was SNP policy, as a price they thought worth paying for leaving the UK.
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
Looks like my step-son's girlfriend will be elected as MP for Luton South. (Her father is Kelvin Hopkins, the former Labour MP. Nepotism alive and well in Labour!)
So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
Remember that the exit poll is a lot cruder than the MRP. It may be good at forecasting the overall national position but isn’t necessarily going to be able to pick and choose between individual third party gains and losses
If the LDs go right back to 1 in Scotland then it doesn't necessarily imply their holding Leave seats in England. They could lose the lot and make up with gains elsewhere. St Albans, Cheltenham, Richmond Park and Sheffield Hallam all look likely targets. Other possibilities include WImbledon and Lewes.
I believe that the BBC is planning to stick individual projections a la the MRP up on their website at some point this evening? Then we'd be able to see where they think the Lib Dems are going to go forwards and backwards tonight.
They forecast five LD losses, of which four are in Scotland. Which is odd, because I'd have reckoned the LD chance of winning O&S was much greater than Eastbourne.
The SNP recently spent 99K in the Holyrood by-election in Shetland - they will have practically a full Shetland canvass. Cheers, Tavish.
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
Mr. EPG, leaving the UK would've entailed leaving the EU. It's deranged to argue that leaving the EU is therefore so unacceptable it becomes an argument to leave the UK.
Leaving the EU was SNP policy, as a price they thought worth paying for leaving the UK.
Leaving the EU was not SNP policy, but a scare line promulgated by the nationalist right. It worked, of course, same way it worked when they promulgated the opposite line to England. Cummings and chums always convince angry people to give up power and trust the already-powerful. It is their metier.
The exit poll has Sunderland Central as only a 60% chance of a hold for Labour. Britain Elects reporting LD sources saying Labour has survived, but probably only because of the Brexit Party.
If we get Tory gains or close Labour wins in places like Blyth Valley and Sunderland Central then we can probably already say that the exit poll is doing its job well.
Looks like my step-son's girlfriend will be elected as MP for Luton South. (Her father is Kelvin Hopkins, the former Labour MP. Nepotism alive and well in Labour!)
You could be more gracious to your own daughter-in-law!
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
What I never understood was the belief that Remainers stalling Brexit would somehow cause people to blame Boris/Leavers. Fine, you don't want Brexit. Fine, you don't have the actual guts to try and vote it down in the Commons. Fine, you use every other thing you can think of to delay, delay, delay. But why should anyone think that you aren't involved, somehow?
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
Still fighting my lonely battle to make "letwin" a verb.
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
Nah, the fight was worth it. The Tories wholly own Brexit now, they cannot say they were forced to BINO.
Looks like my step-son's girlfriend will be elected as MP for Luton South. (Her father is Kelvin Hopkins, the former Labour MP. Nepotism alive and well in Labour!)
You could be more gracious to your own daughter-in-law!
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
Yes. It's obvious that a divided remain vote is weaker than one where the Brexit Party and UKIP have been assimilated.
Looks like my step-son's girlfriend will be elected as MP for Luton South. (Her father is Kelvin Hopkins, the former Labour MP. Nepotism alive and well in Labour!)
You could be more gracious to your own daughter-in-law!
I am sure Boris will take his 100-seat majority as a message to show humility and stop aggressively seeking a right-wing American alignment while defunding public media and importing crappy US food.
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
Yes. It's obvious that a divided remain vote is weaker than one where the Brexit Party and UKIP have been assimilated.
If the exit poll is correct the opinion polls have underestimated the Conservative lead by 4% on average. That underestimation would produce another 52/48 for Leave.
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
In basic human terms as soon as the anger starting rising against parliament and its dirty tricks, the public were always going to vote for the person who said 'fuck this, I'm going to put an end to it'.
Mr. EPG, leaving the UK entailed leaving the EU. A theoretically separate Scotland would then need to apply to for EU membership, if it so wished.
Pretending otherwise is as credible as pretending a separated Scotland could, as of right, demand and get a currency union with England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
Comments
2: people say the prediction and changes their votes/decided to vote after all.
3: they didn’t and the Exit Poll is wrong (this is the least likely I think).
back off the beer train.
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
Leaving the EU was SNP policy, as a price they thought worth paying for leaving the UK.
I don't think I buy that.
Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
If we get Tory gains or close Labour wins in places like Blyth Valley and Sunderland Central then we can probably already say that the exit poll is doing its job well.
Already the under 54.5 line looks incredible. I am limited, many of you will not be. Pile on, this is the bet of the night.
Winchester 63% chance LD gain
Guildford 99% chance Con hold
Dinnae shoot the messenger.
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 45% chance the SNP take it, 55% chance Cons hold.
Too close to call.
Fuck off. Now way, no how.
Pile on Betfair. Pile on.
Congrats on the victory (nationwide) anyway.
Labour have lots of thinking to do!
Finchley & Golders Green
Orkney & Shetland
Cities of London & Westminster
among others
Flint not happy.
Blyth Valley recount - BBC
That underestimation would produce another 52/48 for Leave.
Corbyn was offering more of it.
Pretending otherwise is as credible as pretending a separated Scotland could, as of right, demand and get a currency union with England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
*Ducks*...
If the polls are right, SNP are going to spoil my bets overall though.
But it isn't going to happen.
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.