Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
It started to go wrong for Remainers in March. Oliver Letwin master genius.
Is there any doubt that Remain would have lost a seccond referendum.
In basic human terms as soon as the anger starting rising against parliament and its dirty tricks, the public were always going to vote for the person who said 'fuck this, I'm going to put an end to it'.
Corbyn was offering more of it.
True. People did not like another 5 years of the past 2 years.
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
Well said. Almost all the long time Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here are decent people, and the Labour supporters in particular deserve better from their party. Boris and the Tories should not be too cock-a-hoop about the result — assuming the exit poll is right — as a lot of Tory votes will have been cast with real reluctance.
Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
I was hearing lots of good stuff about Stephen Gethins from friends in the seat, including a previously senior Tory, who was going to vote for him. #justsaying
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
The Conservatives must believe they are safe for 5 years. They have allowed Mark Francois into the studio - a man who can destroy a party in 5 minutes.
I know the BBC seat projections are the only data we have to play with, but I think people are taking their predictions too seriously. They only sample 144 constituencies and only one polling station in each constituency.
ITV went to EU correspondence, saying the EU thought that the UK would come to their senses and vote to block Brexit. They don't understand the British people very well.
I tried explaining to so many people in Denmark that after the referendum the UK needed to leave and ultimately they would eat grass rather than set a democratic vote aside - never convinced anyone but perhaps now they'll accept the UK is going.
The Conservatives must believe they are safe for 5 years. They have allowed Mark Francois into the studio - a man who can destroy a party in 5 minutes.
If Blyth Valley is too close to call, I am pretty sure we are looking at a majority of 100+. This is a place Labour should hold even in their darkest days.
Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
I was hearing lots of good stuff about Stephen Gethins from friends in the seat, including a previously senior Tory, who was going to vote for him. #justsaying
Most of the seats in Scotland are currently marginals. If there's Remain clustering around the Nats outweighing Unionist tactical voting then - especially if the local MP is well regarded - it is possible for a narrow majority to turn into a safe seat.
However, I do agree that there are odd looking individual seat projections buried beneath these headline figures. We shall, of course, only know how accurate they are when we get the results.
Someone bloody should. Time to tell the Momentum kids some hard truths. Blair was not the devil incarnate but someone who delivered a Labour government.
Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
I was hearing lots of good stuff about Stephen Gethins from friends in the seat, including a previously senior Tory, who was going to vote for him. #justsaying
Gethins is great. But being a great MP rarely makes a significant difference on polling day.
There does seem a small chance that some very unusual aspects of this election may have distorted this exit poll a bit, exaggerating the Tory lead in too-close-to-call seats, and buggering up Scotland.
The chances that it's completely wrong seem very low though, to me.
When are we getting some results? I'm getting bored of listening to the same SNP guy waffle on every channel. I'm sure we've normally had Sunderland or Newcastle by now...
Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
Really? Surely the issue in 2017 is that the SNP vote just didn't bother. This time they have.
I was speaking to a Lib Dem activist at lunch time today. He was confident that they were going to take this on the back of squeezing the Tory vote. The Unionist vote has fragmented on the anvil of Brexit. Its deeply troubling.
First up I am of course massively relieved. Hopefully this is the end of Corbyn and the start of the post-Brexit process. I can't help but be pleased.
But just as after the referendum I said the Leave side should reach out to the Remainers, right now I think we should be showing some understanding and empathy for the Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here. They are half or more of what makes this site such a great place to be and I count some of them as genuine friends or people I admire greatly. At some point in the future the Right will suffer in the way the Left are suffering tonight so some real humility is both appropriate and expected.
My hope - perhaps vain - is that this majority will mean Boris is not in hock to the ERG types and will pursue a reasonable Brexit policy. I also hope we will now see the return of the London Mayor Boris rather than the Tory leader Boris.
Whether or not it happens I don't know but I wish everyone a good evening which ever side you are on.
Well said. Almost all the long time Labour and Lib Dem supporters on here are decent people, and the Labour supporters in particular deserve better from their party. Boris and the Tories should not be too cock-a-hoop about the result — assuming the exit poll is right — as a lot of Tory votes will have been cast with real reluctance.
Fair play to both you and @Richard_Tyndall - two great guys on this site for the many years I have been posting, despite our political differences.
Mr. EPG, leaving the UK entailed leaving the EU. A theoretically separate Scotland would then need to apply to for EU membership, if it so wished.
Pretending otherwise is as credible as pretending a separated Scotland could, as of right, demand and get a currency union with England, Wales, and Northern Ireland.
The EC was quite happy to facilitate a new united German state joining without formal application, though it wasn't necessary in the end.
There does seem a small chance that some very unusual aspects of this election may have distorted this exit poll slightly, exaggerating the Tory lead in too-close-to-call seats, and buggering up Scotland.
The chances that it's completely wrong seem very low though to me.
Well Blyth is heading for a recount, so the Exit Poll in England at least seems to be broadly correct.
I was mocked last week for forecasting NN as a LD hold
If they're holding practically everything south of the border *AND* the exit poll is right, then that implies very few gains. Maybe it will just be Richmond Park, St Albans, Sheffield Hallam and... Finchley?! Apparently Luciana has a 6/10 chance of getting home. There's also a 6/10 chance of the Tories losing CoLaW - to Labour. There's some weird stuff going on at individual constituency level in this projection!
King Bongo, that's a useful comment, though, as it suggests that this may be why the EU didn't take the referendum all that seriously beforehand and offered Cameron sod all in his renegotiation (which ended up harming rather than helping him).
Ultra-marginal North East Fife (SNP Maj 2) is predicted to be “one of the safest seats in Scotland “ (BBC)
I’m beginning to think that this Exit Poll is pants.
It would make sense if 2017's tactical-to-LD votes have evaporated.
"Bollocks to Brexit" has likely resulted in the LDs losing Conservative tactical voters.
Perhaps more SLDs and SLAB voters are less keen on a Union with Tory English Nationalists, than a social democrat inclined Independent Scotland in the EU. Perhaps Unionism doesn't trump everything.
There does seem a small chance that some very unusual aspects of this election have distorted this exit poll slightly and exaggerated the Tory lead and buggered up Scotland.
The chance that it's completely wrong seem very low though to me.
Rumours already abound of Labour MPs holding on in some places courtesy of the Brexit Party (although exactly where their vote has come from is a matter of conjecture and might remain so until the BES has had time to work it out.) So yes, it might transpire that the majority takes a knock as a result.
However, my forecast this morning of Con Maj 40 still looks too low, let alone any danger of a Hung Parliament. A Hung Parliament would require, taking the exit poll and the final polls prior to the election into account, the biggest polling failure in the history of polling.
Presumably one minor point here is that the BXP vote was vapourised?
The exit poll has BP getting 9% in one of the Sunderland seats, which was less than Labour's margin over the Tories. But I think the Tories got as much as they could have hoped for.
Comments
People did not like another 5 years of the past 2 years.
https://twitter.com/ProfessorBlitz/status/1204878542896582667?s=20
The rest is guesswork.
The Exit Poll was a bit off last time in Scotland.
Possible Labour gain from Conservative
89% chance"
Foxy did too.
However, I do agree that there are odd looking individual seat projections buried beneath these headline figures. We shall, of course, only know how accurate they are when we get the results.
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1205264516637958144?s=20
??
The chances that it's completely wrong seem very low though, to me.
Asking for a friend...
Hope the 'Oh Jeremy Corbyn' crowd are very proud of themselves tonight.
Who will comfort the Momentum kids crying tonight?
Do we know who has asked for the recount? Please tell me it is Labour.....
Entirely possible - the seat-by-seat results are throwing up numerous "interesting" outcomes. Of course it could go the other way too...
Spin, spin, spin from the Corbynites. It was all Brexit.
Dunbartonshire East
Likely Scottish National Party gain from Liberal Democrat
95% chance
I presume the exit poll can't model the constituency well. Which is to be expexted.
Makes the Betfair seat line bet incredible value.
I personally think Labour will find it very hard to come back from this.
Have to admit i would never have thought under 200 was remotely possible.
YG MRP nearly as big a loser as LAB
ie. Exit Poll *IS* pants.
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1205263806143827968?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent
Thank christ he has no influence now. Watch as Johnson throws the ERG under the bus immediately and tacks towards the centre.
Hope you all got on while you had the chance.
Certainly If I were a Scot, I would back Yes.
Labour totally stuffed.
However, my forecast this morning of Con Maj 40 still looks too low, let alone any danger of a Hung Parliament. A Hung Parliament would require, taking the exit poll and the final polls prior to the election into account, the biggest polling failure in the history of polling.
Partial recount in Blyth Valley.
That's the only Scottish LD prediction I'm prepared to make.