So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
46% is the biggest Conservative vote share since 1970.
In the end, I think a lot of people were petrified by Corbyn.
I think it's really as simple as that.
I think Orwell had something to say about people like teachers, ex-army officers in the 1930's, who lived in straitened circumstances, who could well be won over to Labour, but who took one look at the hard left, and could not wait to go out to vote Conservative.
One wonders just how much damage Ashworths comments made . I bet he feels sick . As a Labour supporter I’m bitterly disappointed but have to take it on the chin .
The EU will be happy , they’ll get the deal through.
The biggest losers apart from Labour and the Lib Dems are the DUP who have screwed themselves .
I agree with you that this is FAR more important than is generally understood. It is a move toward the USA / Republican / angry WWC model for five years, starting with opening up markets in food and healthcare.
Well, that's not going to set off a worsening Scottish sense of grievance, is it?
So long as the Tories can keep winning in England, a full house north of the border for the SNP means the Tories can keep instilling fear of SNP in coalition with Labour, which wins the Tories more seats in England, wash, rinse, repeat.
Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.
Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
There are going to be a tonne of Scottish seats where the majority is less than a thousand either way. It's why I suspect the 55 number is slightly too high. Simply the SNP is forecast to capture a lot by a little, and some of those will probably fall slightly short.
In truth, I don't know what Labour can even do. They don't have a Blair type figure waiting in the wings from what I can see and they're so far behind, how can they even come back next time?
It occurs to me that this is the first election since I think 1865 an incumbent government has lost a majority and regained it.
It also occurs to me this is the first time since 1983 that the exit poll has predicted a Tory majority. In 1987, 1992 and 2015 it predicted a hung parliament.
Hang on, didn't Lord Ashdown threaten to eat his hat in 2015?
So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
Remember that the exit poll is a lot cruder than the MRP. It may be good at forecasting the overall national position but isn’t necessarily going to be able to pick and choose between individual third party gains and losses
Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.
Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
There are going to be a tonne of Scottish seats where the majority is less than a thousand either way. It's why I suspect the 55 number is slightly too high. Simply the SNP is forecast to capture a lot by a little, and some of those will probably fall slightly short.
I still think CON will keep some of their NE Scotland seats
If Robert Smithson is around, well done. Also while I was terrifying myself because JCIPM seemed inevitable, it was good to have a sane and detached voice from outside pointing out the realities to have some hope to hang on to.
So BJIPM. I can't say I'm looking forward to the prospect with untrammelled joy, but I'm much happier with this result than Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. Now please can we have a left-of-centre party that people can vote for?
Comments
Rayner might be close. 63% leave.
Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
Very Boris.
The EU will be happy , they’ll get the deal through.
The biggest losers apart from Labour and the Lib Dems are the DUP who have screwed themselves .
Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
I did predict a Tory majority but slightly undercooked the numbers!
Corbyn has been a disaster - an utter disaster!! Corbyn, McDonnell and McCluskey need to go as soon as possible!
I am sad, very sad. We will now Brexit and quite likely leave the EU via a hard Brexit. Corbyn has been an accomplice to that. Shame on him!
Progressive politics as well as the Union is in tatters.
Scotland to go indy in 2021/22 for sure.
We will see by tomorrow morning, if he is worse than Lansbury.
Mind you, Dr Peters is of course no better.
Edit - bloody hell though, Richard Burgon’s delusion is just epic...
Thank heavens for the SNP!
I miss him.
Boris cares about Boris. Brexit and the Union are merely tools to be used, and discarded.
(blaze it!)
Lab 43%
Con 37%
BRX 11%
LD 5%
Grn 3%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
So BJIPM. I can't say I'm looking forward to the prospect with untrammelled joy, but I'm much happier with this result than Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
Now please can we have a left-of-centre party that people can vote for?
Credit where credit is due.
(I said 41. Doh!)
If they got that wrong, it would make the egg on face of the pollsters of last time look like a guard of an honour and 21-cannon salute.
But I doubt it.