Never known the exit poll to differ so wildly from the anecdata. If Beaconsfield and Esher are 99% chance of a Tory hold, then legions numbers of people must have been effectively voting in trappist-like silence, in terms of anecdotal feedback.
Bordering on the bizarre. Anecdotes are often out, but not by as much as that.
Similarly, there must have been a steady stream of effectively silent Tory voters across the provincial north.
BBC says Doncaster North 99% chance of Lab based on exit poll suggests EdM safe... Doncaster Central (Rosie Winterton) too close to call, about a 1 in 3 chance of a Tory win!
The border seats look safe except D and G close, perth and north Perthshire a toss up, small chance in ab west and kincardine. Tories in scotland 2 to 4 seats I'd suggest
Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.
RIP Corbynism.
Thank you and goodnight Swinson.
Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.
If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -
1) Social insurance for all. 2) Social justice and equality. 3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath 4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation. 5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
We want 8 and we won’t wait. But what will we do with all those fleet carriers?
A fellow historian. Makes you wonder if the new QE class will serve as long and as well as the ones that Churchill laid down. It must have been strange to watch them go to the the breakers, for him, in 1948.
The history of HMS Vanguard is telling.
A job as a professional historian btw. Long in the past though.
I always thought that the best joke of the era was that the weird sisters became the foundation of how modern navy's operate - Henderson wrote the book of carrier operations from Furious's bridge.
The map of England and probably Wales is going to look very, very, very blue tomorrow. North West, Midlands and even North East outside of large cities turning blue. There'll be red dots in the cities and that's it.
The Scottish people get to decide that in elections by (if they want) turfing out the SNP. If the SNP wins elections, there should be independence referendums. They can have one every week if they want, but if they keep losing and spending cash then the voters will take a view.
The border seats look safe except D and G close, perth and north Perthshire a toss up, small chance in ab west and kincardine. Tories in scotland 2 to 4 seats I'd suggest
The scottish seats look weird in the Exit Poll. Gordon, Banf, Orkney going to the SNP while Perth being close. Computer says no.
Congratulations to the Tories on what will obviously be a sound majority. However there are some oddities in the exit poll forecast which suggest a fair margin of uncertainty even ignoring the large number of marginal seats in the forecast. Perhaps this is best shown by the Wimbledon forecast which gives the Tories a 49% chance, Labour 47% and the LDs 4%. Except that the Labour vote has collapsed and they will finish a poor 3rd. The overall forecast may be right, but the seat level results may show some wild errors.
A silly argument. Scotland voted to remain in the UK five years & 3 general elections ago, in part due to the greater certainty that it would remain in the EU. The result was respected; Scotland remains in the UK. If the SNP will really offend its people with a second referendum, let the people punish them. We both know the people won't.
If the local detail of the EP is correct, Ms Wright in East Devon must be a campaigning genius to have overcome the Tories in East Devon when so many others will have tried and failed.
Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
Comments
(Full disclosure: I've still got my LibDem sell at 45 open).
Nate Silver basically said as much a few weeks back. I thought he was just being bitchy, but maybe more in it.
Do we have an update on those crucial figures?
A majority of Scotland’s parliamentarians back a second referendum.
The Tories can stall, but they cannot block. Unless they really do intend to steer towards dictatorship.
"Birmingham Northfield
Likely Conservative gain from Labour
98% chance"
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50424263
This was never a partisan point, and as of 53 minutes ago there is zero mileage in pretending that it is a partisan point. It is simply the truth.
https://twitter.com/UK_Together/status/506899714923843584?s=20
Edit- Basically it’s none of my business and for the Scots to decide in elections whether the SNP take the piss and have too many.
https://www.twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205229972291497984
https://www.twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205245084050083840
https://www.twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1205246679835910145
Not "off the cuff remark" - but in the SNP Government White Paper.
Bordering on the bizarre. Anecdotes are often out, but not by as much as that.
Similarly, there must have been a steady stream of effectively silent Tory voters across the provincial north.
You're keen to ignore what they said a few years ago.
If they voted to stay in the UK again you'd be keen to ignore that.
Democracy isn't asking the same question over and over again until you get the answer that you want.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1205114003162357760
That doesn't feel correct.
That doesn’t feel agreeable.
Fife NE too close to call 54% SNP chance
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock 83% SNP chance
Ochil and South Perth shire 88% SNP chance
Labour won that by 19% last election.
But still. We don't have a single result in. And the exit poll could be wrong.
Gordon, Banf, Orkney going to the SNP while Perth being close.
Computer says no.
If it did, though, the LDs could do worse than pick her as their next leader.
“We are past peak Tory” (BBC)
Dunbartonshire East 95% chance
ABERDEEN South 93% chance
We couldn't have done this without you.
Bet Ronnie Campbell is glad he gave it up!
But Caithness...