politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A big rumour to get everyone going before the exit poll at 10p

DavidL said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

I would focus on the 2. The one you tried to get rid of in Edinburgh and the lucky sod in Kirkcaldy where the SNP candidate proved even more repugnant than usual.

10 seems somewhat fanciful, given last night's Survation. and, y'know, reality.

SunnyJim said:

nichomar said:

I’d never be able to look my children in the eye if I did!

You'll have a harder time explaining why you were happy to load hundreds of billions of pounds of YOUR spending on to their (and their childrens) future taxes.

I wasn’t but then I never saw it as a binary choice between two incompetent liers

I think Scottish Labour will get three. Coatbridge on top of the two obvious ones.

humbugger said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205226018832822273

If swathes of the red wall turn blue it's unlikely to be a HP, imo.

The Tories will get some of the red wall, but definitely not all or even close to it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Betfair is back in, but 1.4 is again the resistance level (as it has been for days / weeks).

This market means nothing. Look at the night of the 2016 referendum.

Andrew said:

Betfair market solidly pissed today. It's all over the place.

Back sub 1.40 on the Con Maj.

Lab under 206.5 has just cratered in, nothing available to back above 6/4.

Big shift on Sporting Index labour drop 5 seats to 225 in the last minute!

CorrectHorseBattery said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

TommyShelby said:

Sources (twitter journalists) Tories leading in Dagenham, Putney, Chingford, Wimbledon.
Diverting resources to Battersea from Putney.
Bishop Auckland is a ‘cast iron gain’. Rother Valley, Derby North, Bolsover and Bassetlaw will go blue.
West Midlands - tough fight in Birmingham northfield and two Coventry seats.

Labour - Paul sweeney looks doomed in Glasgow northeast.
Watford, Battersea, Uxbridge, Chingford, Enfield Finchley and Kensington are where they still are canvassing.
Morecambe, High Peak, Pudsey, Grimsby vote holding up well.
Stroud looks bad for labour due to split vote.

Paul Sweeney was sounding a bit demented on LBC last night, so I would think he's almost certainly out.

That commentary doesn't really scream "landslide" to me

Eh? I'm not a Tory, I'm an SNP voter in rural Scotland. Just trying to help prepare you for Paul Sweeney, a fairly unpopular MP up here, losing his seat.

Oh, one more anecdote for the pile. I asked the opinion of The Oracle on this election this morning (The Oracle is a stranger to PB but managed to call Trump, Brexit and the 2017 Hung Parliament correctly.)

Even he wasn't sure this time. Said that Labour might do surprisingly well, but qualified this with the statement that he was probably just being contrary to the polls for the sake of it. The Oracle pays little attention to the polls, but was dimly aware that they were meant to be showing some sort of Tory lead. After I gave a brief rundown of the polls he ventured the suggestion that we might be headed for another Hung Parliament, but without any degree of conviction.

If even The Oracle is unsure about this election then a very odd tale could be about to unfold.

TommyShelby said:

Morecambe, High Peak, Pudsey, Grimsby vote holding up well.

There's both tory and labour seats there. Do you mean the incumbents there are all likely to hold their seats, or that the tories are performing well in all 4 and thus could take High Peak and Grimsby?

brokenwheel said:

Except there isn't an LD vote to collapse...

There was only 4% in 2017, but LDs were polling higher in the autumn, something like 12% by memory.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

DavidL said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

I would focus on the 2. The one you tried to get rid of in Edinburgh and the lucky sod in Kirkcaldy where the SNP candidate proved even more repugnant than usual.

10 seems somewhat fanciful, given last night's Survation. and, y'know, reality.

2 is bloody fortunate and requires a degree of rationality on the part of SNP supporters which the evidence does not warrant. It may not happen.

I discovered a friend of mine had voted SNP today in the borders on a tactical basis to defeat a Tory on the basis that he was crap. Like that is any excuse. He's still a friend. Just.

Alistair said:

Lol, apparently he was proxy voting.

Which means he just revealed the vote of who he Proxy voted for.

MilesPartridge said:

Big shift on Sporting Index labour drop 5 seats to 225 in the last minute!

Yes Con up to 348 now

Thinking about ordering a pineapple pizza, just for the occasion.

Andy_JS said:

alb1on said:

If there is any truth that Uxbridge is even close just imagine what would have happened if Labour had put up a decent candidate without a dodgy past. If Johnson wins this by a small margin those responsible for choosing Ali Milani should be defenestrated.

The Tory vote will probably hold firm in Uxbridge but Labour will get close because of switchers from the LDs.

As others have pointed out, with only 3.9% last time there are next to no LDs available to switch. A good Labour candidate (or all party backing for an indie) could have secured backing from anti-Boris Tories.

Andrew said:

Thinking about ordering a pineapple pizza, just for the occasion.

Why are people trying to cause me to have a breakdown?

mwadams said:

RobD said:

IshmaelZ said:

Con Maj 1.38 on BF. Normality restored.

Ah, we've finally figured out what normality is then?

Anything you still can't cope with is therefore your own problem.

Welcome to the Starship Heart of Gold

Bob__Sykes said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

Tories floundering?

I realise that's probably been done already...

It’s a red herring.

Andrew said:

Thinking about ordering a pineapple pizza, just for the occasion.

The barbarians are truly at the gates...

Bob__Sykes said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

Tories floundering?

I realise that's probably been done already...

Something fishy about that prediction

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

There’s something fishy going on.

They were trawling for votes, and netted plenty?

Labour kept a few lost soles.

The real problem was the lack of Kippers, though.

ydoethur said:

Bob__Sykes said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

Tories floundering?

I realise that's probably been done already...

It’s a red herring.

Out of plaice, if you don't mind.

Sandpit said:

edmundintokyo said:

Any suggestions for a live stream from outside the UK? I just need the results as they come in, and pundits talking about historic swings or whatever.

Same here. Hoping for the Beeb website to be live, as it was for the last debate.

Can't you get Sky News on YouTube? I know its got Bercow on, but Thrasher is the best of the "analysts".

Andrew said:

Thinking about ordering a pineapple pizza, just for the occasion.

Do it!

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

Good result for Labour, but whether it extends to other seats is difficult to say. Scunthorpe is nearby.

DavidL said:

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

DavidL said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1205224312883556380

I would focus on the 2. The one you tried to get rid of in Edinburgh and the lucky sod in Kirkcaldy where the SNP candidate proved even more repugnant than usual.

10 seems somewhat fanciful, given last night's Survation. and, y'know, reality.

2 is bloody fortunate and requires a degree of rationality on the part of SNP supporters which the evidence does not warrant. It may not happen.

I discovered a friend of mine had voted SNP today in the borders on a tactical basis to defeat a Tory on the basis that he was crap. Like that is any excuse. He's still a friend. Just.

A good night for SLab would be 5, their vote has been in freefall.

Edin Sth
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Coatbridge

Should be holds. Midlothian and Glasgow NE gone, from what I hear.

nichomar said:

Bob__Sykes said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

Tories floundering?

I realise that's probably been done already...

Something fishy about that prediction

You were too slow. I beat you too it. Your chance of a punning win was fin-ished.

Fysics_Teacher said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html

Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?

Because the Labour supporter who tweeted it realised what it showed perhaps?

Actually I think nobody should be making capital out of this on either side. She does not look well and that is something I have a huge amount of sympathy with right now. Disagreeing with her politics is fine (and I do) but not how she looks or dresses.

If she's not well she shouldn't be standing.

IanB2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sean_F said:

There's a right wing/pro Brexit vote of 50% in this seat. This rumour should be ignored.

Yeah, but the guy isn't popular, SeanF. He was a dishonest Mayor with a very indifferent track record. Londoners tend to remember that sort of thing.

I really wouldn't be that surprised if he lost. If the overall result is fairly close - say Tories in with a majority of 20 to 40, I'm not sure he would scrape through.

Seriously.

Londoners see Bozo's last minute decision to support Leave the same way as Cameron did.

The Acuri thing would also have been noted. He can fuck who he likes, when he likes, but at his own expense please, not the voters.

The Con 340+ market is stuck above evens while other markets have swung back towards the Tories.

2.12 is looking awfully tempting.

humbugger said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1205226018832822273

If swathes of the red wall turn blue it's unlikely to be a HP, imo.

It's literally impossible under that scenario. There simply aent enough London seats to offset it.

Fysics_Teacher said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html

Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?

Because the Labour supporter who tweeted it realised what it showed perhaps?

Actually I think nobody should be making capital out of this on either side. She does not look well and that is something I have a huge amount of sympathy with right now. Disagreeing with her politics is fine (and I do) but not how she looks or dresses.

She suffers from massively overweight syndrome. Which arguably accounts for the Type 2 and also indicates that she is unable to control herself. Can she see her feet to worry about her shoes?

viewcode said:

DavidL said:

Why the fuck does anyone in this benighted country ever travel by train? The useless bastards have delayed my train so that I won’t be at home by the exit poll. I hate them. Yes I may have had a drink. But it does not excuse their incompetence.

Amen

Honestly, I think we should recognise that running a train service is just too difficult for us and just close it down making everyone employed in it redundant. I went to see my daughter in Gronnigan last year. It involved a change of trains about half way from Amsterdam. There was 2 minutes between the trains. I suggested that was a bit tight. The person selling the tickets, who spoke perfect English, looked bewildered. Why would that be a problem? It wasn't.

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

There’s something fishy going on.

They were trawling for votes, and netted plenty?

Labour kept a few lost soles.

The real problem was the lack of Kippers, though.

When they went to see, urchins came round to Jezza.

Mexicanpete said:

If this happened, sadly I do not believe it will, it would consign the term 'Portillo moment' to the dustbin of history.

For evermore such an event through the sands of time, would be known as A BORIS JOHNSON MOMENT.

Just a Boris.

And yet it would be so typical of his career - amazing successes trumped by even more spectacular disasters.

EPG said:

edmundintokyo said:

Any suggestions for a live stream from outside the UK? I just need the results as they come in, and pundits talking about historic swings or whatever.

Sky tends to work. (EDIT: Come to think of it, that was in 2016.)

Thanks, Sky News live stream seems to be working.

Not doing election things at the moment but I guess they'll get to it.

Edit: I know why there's no exit poll, I'm an hour off...

state_go_away said:

All the publicity is on the few London seats due to the media centric nature but the real story is in the unfashionable and unknown (to the media) north- Don Valley , bassetlaw - eh up me duck land!

They say duck just down the road from where I live, but never here.

viewcode said:

DavidL said:

Why the fuck does anyone in this benighted country ever travel by train? The useless bastards have delayed my train so that I won’t be at home by the exit poll. I hate them. Yes I may have had a drink. But it does not excuse their incompetence.

Amen

I assume that the delay is caused by Notwork Rail rather than the operator, since most delays (ex Guard strikes) are down to signalling, track work, lack of track capacity etc - all of which are managed by the only nationalised part of the operation.

TheScreamingEagles said:

From the man doing the fieldwork for the exit poll

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1205224501094559755

Is he really allowed to even insinuate anything .

ReggieCide said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html

Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?

Because the Labour supporter who tweeted it realised what it showed perhaps?

Actually I think nobody should be making capital out of this on either side. She does not look well and that is something I have a huge amount of sympathy with right now. Disagreeing with her politics is fine (and I do) but not how she looks or dresses.

The issue is, from a Labour perspective, if she's sufficiently unwell to know that her shoes don't match and they're on the wrong feet, then should she be putting herself up to be shooed in in a solid Labour constituency

As a potential Home Secretary?

IanB2 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sean_F said:

There's a right wing/pro Brexit vote of 50% in this seat. This rumour should be ignored.

Yeah, but the guy isn't popular, SeanF. He was a dishonest Mayor with a very indifferent track record. Londoners tend to remember that sort of thing.

I really wouldn't be that surprised if he lost. If the overall result is fairly close - say Tories in with a majority of 20 to 40, I'm not sure he would scrape through.

Seriously.

Londoners see Bozo's last minute decision to support Leave the same way as Cameron did.

Really? They see it as revenge for Sam choosing Dave over Boris?

nichomar said:

ydoethur said:

nichomar said:

Bob__Sykes said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

If Labour are confident of retaining Grimsby, what might this mean?

Tories floundering?

I realise that's probably been done already...

Something fishy about that prediction

You were too slow. I beat you too it. Your chance of a punning win was fin-ished.

I’m an hour ahead and a few more wines so can’t dash the answers of as quickly

If you’re an hour ahead, please can you let us know what the Exit Poll says?

My postal proxy ballot arrived at 4pm today. After the first one “got lost in the mail”. Third election in a row (second general) the council disenfranchised me.

Sandpit said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

IshmaelZ said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Wanted to repost as people posted fake news from the Daily Mail.

https://www.instagram.com/p/B58DqnrAAXG/

That's the actual photo, before it was photoshopped.

I notice DM don't show the original Tweet, because it's been deleted.

No, the Mail photo is just of her and one other woman. Quite different.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7784881/Starting-wrong-foot-Labours-Diane-Abbott-appears-rushed-ODD-shoes.html

Where's the original Tweet then? Why has it been deleted?

Because the Labour supporter who tweeted it realised what it showed perhaps?

Actually I think nobody should be making capital out of this on either side. She does not look well and that is something I have a huge amount of sympathy with right now. Disagreeing with her politics is fine (and I do) but not how she looks or dresses.

If she's not well she shouldn't be standing.

If she has a heavy cold or ‘flu?

Bob__Sykes said:

Finally voted in Bury South, in my marginal straight Lab/Tory ward. "Steady" was the word used to describe activity today. It seemed slightly quieter than when I last voted there around the same time in 2015 - although that was a pleasantly warm May evening not biting December drizzle.

With sweaty palms and a heavy remainer-ish heart, I voted Tory. As always. I felt choked as I left at the thought I've just dived in with those of insane Brexit mind like Boris, Mogg and Foster et al. But Corbyn and McDonnell turn my stomach and will do until hopefully around 3-4am tonight when I can turn in safe and sleep.

Brexit will go on and on and won't get done. And I suspect the next Labour Govt in 5 years will probably quickly hold a new referendum and turn the ongoing transition period into EU re-entry. But in the meantime, at least a fairly moderate Tory PM can steady the ship otherwise.

Assuming he doesn't lose his seat tonight and we end up with Rees Mogg or some other horror.

I've lived here for 9 years and been waiting for it to go back blue but it never has. So tonight it might if all the polls and predictions are right. I can't really see it, but I might for the first time since I started voting in 1997 actually have voted for a winning GE candidate tonight.

Interestingly, I realised driving home that I didn't know where my polling station was. I had a postal vote in 2017, and the library has been closed since 2015 (Labour council cuts). I googled "find my polling station" and clicked on Labour's own site. I was urged by Jez himself to go to the place I voted at in the locals in May.

Wrong. Back to the library (now a community hub). What's one more untruth from Corbyn to finish the campaign.... :-)

I've been voting since 1997 too and pretty certain I've kept up my record of failing to vote for a winner.

edmundintokyo said:

EPG said:

edmundintokyo said:

Any suggestions for a live stream from outside the UK? I just need the results as they come in, and pundits talking about historic swings or whatever.

Sky tends to work. (EDIT: Come to think of it, that was in 2016.)

Thanks, Sky News live stream seems to be working.

Not doing election things at the moment but I guess they'll get to it.

They can't report until polls have closed. Then it will go into overdrive.